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DREAM:
HOMEOWNERSHIP
IN CALIFORNIA
April 23,2015
Mid-Year Luncheon
Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer
OVERVIEW
The Good News
Our Challenge
Affordability Gap
Homeownership Gap
Housing Production Gap
Solving California Housing Problem
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
Jan-15
Jul-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Jan-09
Jul-08
Jan-08
Jul-07
Jan-07
Jul-06
Jan-06
Jul-05
Jan-05
$700,000
$600,000
Mar-14:
$437,100
$500,000
Mar-15:
$468,550
T: Feb-09
$245,230
-59% from
peak
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
Jan-15
Jul-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Jan-09
Jul-08
Jan-08
Jul-07
Jan-07
Jul-06
Jan-06
Jul-05
Jan-05
$-
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
Jan-15
Oct-14
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Oct-12
Jul-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Oct-11
Jul-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
Oct-10
Jul-10
Apr-10
Jan-10
-25%
Note: Unsold Inventory Index represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The
remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were Active, Pending, and Contingent (when available) and
divide the sum by the number of Sold properties for the month in question.
Jan-15
Jul-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Jan-
Jul-08
Jan-
Jul-07
Jan-07
Jul-06
Jul-05
Jan-05
Jan-
And yet
Sales off 7.6% in 2014 compared to 2013
Share of first-time buyers LOW
Affordability key concern for renters
Bay Area
Central Valley
So CA
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.1
4.0
3.7
3.0
2.4
2.0
1.0
0.0
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Note: Unsold Inventory Index represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The
remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were Active, Pending, and Contingent (when available) and
divide the sum by the number of Sold properties for the month in question.
OUR CHALLENGE:
HOW TO RE-ESTABLISH HOUSING
AFFORDABILITY AND
HOMEOWNERSHIP
(When Government Policy Fails)
Inhibited by
Fiscal interests of local government
Residents who disdain further development, especially
multi-family
Unfavorable legal/business environment for
development in general & multi-family in particular
AFFORDABILITY GAP
CA
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
US
Annual
Quarterly
$91,552
$80,000
$60,000
$56,324
$40,000
$20,000
$0
2012 Q1
2014 Q4
64
59 57
56 56
53 53
50 49
45
41
30
20
10
0
31 29
29 28 27 27
26 24
23 22 21
21 20
17 15 15
14
In 2013 Dollars
$70,000.00
U.S.
CA
$60,000.00
$50,000.00
$40,000.00
$30,000.00
$20,000.00
$10,000.00
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
$0.00
Source: Zillow
$119,970
$100,000
$98,400
$87,520
$80,000
$69,990
$60,000
$40,000
$20,000
$0
$89,250
$91,552
$71,630
$45,340
$27,010
Retail
Chefs and Elementary
Salespersons Head Cooks
School
Teachers
Firefighters
Police and
Computer
Registered
Software
Min. Inc
Sherriff's Programmers
Nurses
Developers Required to
Patrol
(Applications) Buy a Med.
Officers
Home
$100,000
$103,790
$80,000
$82,830
$40,000
$0
$91,297
$72,720
$60,000
$20,000
$86,840
$93,180
$42,610
$44,330
$26,870
Retail
Auto.
Salespersons Mechanics
Firefighters
Computer
Registered
Programmers
Nurses
Software
Min. Inc
Developers Required to
(Applications) Buy a Med.
Home
Source: Zillow
$194,870
$124,980
$88,390
$118,690
$97,570
$70,680
$52,690
$49,230
$30,340
Retail
Auto.
Salespersons Mechanics
Firefighters
Computer
Registered
Programmers
Nurses
Software
Min. Inc
Developers Required to
(Applications) Buy a Med.
Home
Source: Zillow
$100,000
$105,390 $103,730
$80,000
$75,980
$60,000
$67,300
$58,520
$40,000
$20,000
$0
$46,790
$54,400
$50,730
$26,610
Retail
Auto.
Salespersons Mechanics
Firefighters
Computer
Registered
Programmers
Nurses
Software
Min. Inc
Developers Required to
(Applications) Buy a Med.
Home
$1,624
$1,727
$1,833
$1,942
$2,054
$2,169
$2,286
$1,600
$1,200
$800
$400
$0
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
INTEREST RATE
SERIES: Housing Affordability Index
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
20% Downpayment
$120,000
$100,000
$81,798
$85,768
$89,873
$94,108
$98,468
$102,949
$107,544
$112,249
$80,000
$60,000
$40,000
$20,000
$0
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
INTEREST RATE
SERIES: Housing Affordability Index
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
50%
40%
36%
34%
20% Downpayment
32%
30%
28%
26%
30%
24%
23%
20%
10%
0%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
INTEREST RATE
SERIES: Housing Affordability Index
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
US
8%
7%
6%
5.0%
4.6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
HOMEOWNERSHIP GAP
HOMEOWNERSHIP RATES
California Vs. U.S. 9.9% gap in 2014
75%
CA
Peak: 69.0%
70%
65%
US
64.5%
64.8%
60%
Peak: 60.2%
55%
53.7%
50%
45%
54.9%
65 &Above
70%
45 64
65%
60%
Overall Rate
35 44
55%
50%
Under 35
45%
40%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2007
2008 2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Native-Born
2
0
Immigrants
1980-90
1990-00
2000-10
2010-20
Source: Dowell Myers and John Pitkin, Immigrant Contributions to the Housing Market RIHA, Mortgage Bankers Association,
2013
50%
40%
28.1%
30%
30.5%
20%
10%
0%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
44%
9%
6%
6%
Flexibility/Freedom if renting
6%
Cost/Upkeep/Responsibility
5%
5%
3%
2%
MILLENIALS DIFFERENT
HOUSING ASPIRATIONS OR LACK
OF MEANS?
100%
90%
West
Midwest
South
Northeast
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Source: Dowell Myers and John Pitkin, Immigrant Contributions to the Housing
Market RIHA, Mortgage Bankers Association, 2013
Source: Dowell Myers and John Pitkin, Immigrant Contributions to the Housing
Market RIHA, Mortgage Bankers Association, 2013
41%
36%
40%
35%
30%
20%
25%
20%
15%
10%
1%
5%
1%
0%
I rent
I live with my
parents
I own
I live in a dorm
Other:
SOURCE: 2013 Demand Institute Housing & Community Survey; 2013 Demand Institute Housing Forecasts
SOURCE: American Community Survey; 2013 Demand Institute Housing & Community Survey
Maintenance/Upkeep (14%)
Responsibility (4%)
What are your biggest concerns about home ownership?
SERIES: 2014 Millennials Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Amount of Debt
<$10,000
Refused, 2%
No, 75%
78%
$10-$20K
8%
$20-$50K
6%
Yes, 23%
$50-$100K
3%
> $100K
2%
Refused
2%
10%
9%
CA
US
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
5.0%
4.6%
CA
25
18.9
20
Long Run Average = 15.9
15
10
5
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
CA
US
30
Underwater homeowners
25
20
15
10
Prop. 13?
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
350000
Single Family
Multi-Family
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
SERIES: New Housing Permits
SOURCE: Construction Industry Research Board
Coastal
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1,000,000
957,834
800,000
600,000
575,156
400,000
200,000
0
-200,000
-5,485
165,105
2009
2010
223,058
2011
2012
2009 - 2012
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
Shortage of Land:
Production shortfall greatest in cities where need is most
critical
SOLVING CALIFORNIAS
HOUSING PROBLEM
SOLUTIONS
Production Gap is Primary Source of CAs Housing
Problems
Solutions must include:
Increase in Production
Revitalization of Neighborhoods
Change Incentive Structure Facing Cities
Fiscal
Housing & Zoning Requirements
Enforce housing elements of general plans, create incentives to
comply
SOLUTIONS
Attitude Shift is Essential to Moving Toward
Solutions
By Households as Residents
By Households as Taxpayers
By Local Elected Officials
By State Officials
SOLUTIONS - LOCAL
Permanent city affordable housing subsidy source
Dedication of a share of county tax increment financing
to affordable housing
Revise zoning code and/or density bonus ordinance to
increase
Ease parking and set-aside requirements to enable more
backyard homes; granny flats
Convert unlawful but affordable units
Collaborate with business community
SOLUTIONS - STATE
CEQA Reform
Inclusionary Zoning
Experiment with social impact bonds & health funds
as a source
2015 FORECAST
416.5
422.6
439.8
414.9
383.3
398.4
24.5% -12.3%
1.4%
4.1%
-5.9%
-7.6%
3.9%
$319.3
$407.2
$447.0
$473.1
% Change
-21.1% 10.9%
Housing Affordability
Index
51%
48%
-6.2%
11.6%
27.5%
9.8%
5.8%
53%
51%
36%
30%
28%
4.5%
3.7%
4.0%
4.3%
4.5%
% Change
30-Yr FRM
474.9
5.0%
4.7%
THANKYOU!
www.car.org/marketdata
joels@car.org