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THE EVAPORATING

DREAM:
HOMEOWNERSHIP
IN CALIFORNIA

April 23,2015
Mid-Year Luncheon
Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

OVERVIEW
The Good News
Our Challenge

Affordability Gap
Homeownership Gap
Housing Production Gap
Solving California Housing Problem

What Kind of State Will CA be?

TODAYS CALIFORNIA HOUSING


MARKET
Strengthening (even if underperforming)

2015 Q1 HOME SALES UP SLIGHTLY


California, Mar. 2015 Sales: 391,680 Units, +2.3%YTD, +7.3%YTY
700,000
600,000
Mar-14: Mar-15:
365,120 391,680

500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes


SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

*Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized

Jan-15

Jul-14

Jan-14

Jul-13

Jan-13

Jul-12

Jan-12

Jul-11

Jan-11

Jul-10

Jan-10

Jul-09

Jan-09

Jul-08

Jan-08

Jul-07

Jan-07

Jul-06

Jan-06

Jul-05

Jan-05

MEDIAN HOME PRICE CONTINUES TO CLIMB


California, Mar. 2015: $468,550, +9.2% MTM, +7.2%YTY
P: May-07
$594,530

$700,000
$600,000

Mar-14:
$437,100

$500,000

Mar-15:
$468,550

T: Feb-09
$245,230
-59% from
peak

$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes


SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

Jan-15

Jul-14

Jan-14

Jul-13

Jan-13

Jul-12

Jan-12

Jul-11

Jan-11

Jul-10

Jan-10

Jul-09

Jan-09

Jul-08

Jan-08

Jul-07

Jan-07

Jul-06

Jan-06

Jul-05

Jan-05

$-

SALES LOOKING POSITIVE SO FAR FOR 15


Year-over-Year % Chg

6 per. Mov. Avg. (Year-over-Year % Chg)

15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes, Seasonally Adjusted


SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

Jan-15

Oct-14

Jul-14

Apr-14

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

Oct-12

Jul-12

Apr-12

Jan-12

Oct-11

Jul-11

Apr-11

Jan-11

Oct-10

Jul-10

Apr-10

Jan-10

-25%

INVENTORY REMAINS VERY TIGHT


Mar 2014: 4.0 Months; Mar 2015: 3.8 Months
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4

Note: Unsold Inventory Index represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The
remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were Active, Pending, and Contingent (when available) and
divide the sum by the number of Sold properties for the month in question.

SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes


SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

Jan-15

Jul-14

Jan-14

Jul-13

Jan-13

Jul-12

Jan-12

Jul-11

Jan-11

Jul-10

Jan-10

Jul-09

Jan-

Jul-08

Jan-

Jul-07

Jan-07

Jul-06

Jul-05

Jan-05

Jan-

2015 - WHERE ARE WE TODAY?


Housing market is under-preforming given
fundamentals
Low mortgage rates
Job & Income growth are back

And yet
Sales off 7.6% in 2014 compared to 2013
Share of first-time buyers LOW
Affordability key concern for renters

INVENTORY DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY


IN THE BAY AREA SINCE 2009
BUT REMAINED TIGHT
9.0

Bay Area

Central Valley

So CA

8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0

4.1

4.0

3.7

3.0
2.4

2.0
1.0
0.0

Jan-09

Jul-09

Jan-10

Jul-10

Jan-11

Jul-11

Jan-12

Jul-12

Jan-13

Jul-13

Jan-14

Jul-14

Jan-15

Note: Unsold Inventory Index represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The
remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were Active, Pending, and Contingent (when available) and
divide the sum by the number of Sold properties for the month in question.

SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes


SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

WHERE IS THE INVENTORY?


Investors renting instead of flipping
Mortgage Lock-In Effect
Where will I go?
Foreclosure pipeline is dry
New construction recovering but LOW
Off-market (aka pocket) listings not being
counted in listing stats

OUR CHALLENGE:
HOW TO RE-ESTABLISH HOUSING
AFFORDABILITY AND
HOMEOWNERSHIP
(When Government Policy Fails)

WHERE ARE WE HEADED?

By 2025, California will have a middle class of


renters.
John Husing, Ph.D Economics

INADEQUATE HOUSING SUPPLY


ISSUE

Housing supply constrained in long-run


New construction recovery is very slow
Missing 165,000+ new units per year
Production has fallen short of housing needs

Inhibited by
Fiscal interests of local government
Residents who disdain further development, especially
multi-family
Unfavorable legal/business environment for
development in general & multi-family in particular

CALIFORNIAS 3 HOUSING GAPS


Housing Gaps:
Housing affordability gap
Homeownership gap
Housing production gap

Chronic problems spanning decades, but


they are coming back home to roost

AFFORDABILITY GAP

HOUSING AFFORDABILITY DOWN


SHARPLY SINCE Q1 2012
California vs. U.S. 1984-2014
% OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT CAN BUY
A MEDIAN-PRICED HOME
80%

CA

70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

SERIES: Housing Affordability Index of Traditional Buyers


SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

US

Annual

Quarterly

INCOME REQUIRED TO BUY A MEDIAN-PRICED


HOME IN CA: (PEAK VS. CURRENT)
$100,000

$91,552

$80,000
$60,000

Change in minimum required income:


$35,228
Increase in income attributed to
interest rate increase:
$338 (1.0% of total change)

$56,324

$40,000

Increase in income attributed to price


increase :
$34,890 (99.0% of total change)

$20,000
$0
2012 Q1

2014 Q4

SERIES: Housing Affordability Index


SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

HOUSING AFFORDABILITY IN CA: BY COUNTY


HAI
70
60
50
40

% able to purchase median priced home


2014 Q4

64
59 57
56 56

53 53

50 49

45

41

30
20
10
0

SERIES: Housing Affordability Index


SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

31 29
29 28 27 27
26 24
23 22 21
21 20

17 15 15
14

VERY SLOW REAL INCOME GROWTH

In 2013 Dollars
$70,000.00

U.S.

CA

2013 gap = $5600

$60,000.00
$50,000.00
$40,000.00
$30,000.00
$20,000.00
$10,000.00

1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013

$0.00

SERIES: Median Household Income


SOURCE: US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey

CALIFORNIAS MAJOR METROS ARE LESS


AFFORDABLE THAN THE AVERAGE U.S. METRO

SOURCE: Legislative Analysts Office

RIVERSIDE AND SACRAMENTO ARE STILL BELOW THE AVERAGE


SHARES OF INCOME DEVOTED TO MORTGAGE PAYMENTS

Source: Zillow

STATES LOW-INCOME HHS SPEND MUCH MORE!

SLOW WAGE GROWTH A CONCERN

HOW WAGES MEASURED AGAINST INCOME


REQUIRED TO BUY A HOME (2014)
California
$120,000

Annual Mean Wage

$119,970

$100,000

$98,400
$87,520

$80,000
$69,990

$60,000
$40,000
$20,000
$0

$89,250

$91,552

$71,630

$45,340
$27,010

Retail
Chefs and Elementary
Salespersons Head Cooks
School
Teachers

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, C.A.R.

Firefighters

Police and
Computer
Registered
Software
Min. Inc
Sherriff's Programmers
Nurses
Developers Required to
Patrol
(Applications) Buy a Med.
Officers
Home

HOW WAGES MEASURED AGAINST INCOME


REQUIRED TO BUY A HOME
Los Angeles
$120,000

Annual Mean Wage

$100,000

$103,790

$80,000

$82,830

$40,000

$0

$91,297

$72,720

$60,000

$20,000

$86,840

$93,180

$42,610

$44,330

$26,870

Retail
Auto.
Salespersons Mechanics

Chefs and Elementary


Head Cooks
School
Teachers

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, C.A.R.

Firefighters

Computer
Registered
Programmers
Nurses

Software
Min. Inc
Developers Required to
(Applications) Buy a Med.
Home

MORTGAGE AND RENT PAYMENTS ABOVE


HISTORIC SHARES OF INCOME IN LOS ANGELES

Source: Zillow

HOW WAGES MEASURED AGAINST INCOME


REQUIRED TO BUY A HOME
San Francisco
$200,000
$180,000
$160,000
$140,000
$120,000
$100,000
$80,000
$60,000
$40,000
$20,000
$0

Annual Mean Wage

$194,870

$124,980
$88,390

$118,690

$97,570

$70,680
$52,690

$49,230

$30,340
Retail
Auto.
Salespersons Mechanics

Chefs and Elementary


Head Cooks
School
Teachers

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, C.A.R.

Firefighters

Computer
Registered
Programmers
Nurses

Software
Min. Inc
Developers Required to
(Applications) Buy a Med.
Home

AND IN SAN FRANCISCO

Source: Zillow

HOW WAGES MEASURED AGAINST INCOME


REQUIRED TO BUY A HOME
Sacramento
$120,000

Annual Mean Wage

$100,000

$105,390 $103,730

$80,000
$75,980

$60,000

$67,300
$58,520

$40,000
$20,000
$0

$46,790

$54,400

$50,730

$26,610

Retail
Auto.
Salespersons Mechanics

Chefs and Elementary


Head Cooks
School
Teachers

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, C.A.R.

Firefighters

Computer
Registered
Programmers
Nurses

Software
Min. Inc
Developers Required to
(Applications) Buy a Med.
Home

MEDIAN MONTHLY MORTGAGE PAYMENT - CA


What Will Happen When Mortgage Rates Increase?
MONTHLY MORTGAGE
$2,400
$2,000
$1,525

Q4-2014 Median Price $452,140


20% Downpayment

$1,624

$1,727

$1,833

$1,942

$2,054

$2,169

$2,286

$1,600
$1,200
$800
$400
$0
3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

INTEREST RATE
SERIES: Housing Affordability Index
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

MINIMUM QUALIFYING INCOME - CA


What Will Happen When Mortgage Rates Increase?
Q4-2014 Median Price $452,140
Minimum Qualifying Income

20% Downpayment

$120,000
$100,000

$81,798

$85,768

$89,873

$94,108

$98,468

$102,949

$107,544

$112,249

$80,000
$60,000
$40,000
$20,000
$0
3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

INTEREST RATE
SERIES: Housing Affordability Index
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

HOUSING AFFORDABILITY INDEX - CA


What Will Happen When Mortgage Rates Increase?
% OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT CAN BUY, ALL ELSE CONSTANT
Q4-2014 Median Price $452,140

50%
40%

36%

34%

20% Downpayment
32%

30%

28%

26%

30%

24%

23%

20%
10%
0%
3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

INTEREST RATE
SERIES: Housing Affordability Index
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

NET MIGRATION CA TO TEXAS BY INCOME GROUP


2007
2012
2,000
0
-2,000
-4,000
-6,000
-8,000
-10,000
-12,000
-14,000
-16,000
-18,000
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, IPUMS, CAR

HOUSING AFFORDABILITY GAP

Affordability crisis goes beyond low


income households
Lack of affordable housing for low income
service workers is apparent
Less obvious problem: moderate income
households who cannot afford homes in/near
communities where they work
In general, there are programs to assist the first
group, but not the second group

FEWER HOUSING UNITS BEING TURNED OVER


SINCE THE GREAT RECESSION
CA

US

8%
7%
6%
5.0%
4.6%

5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

SERIES: Percent of existing single-family homes being sold


SOURCE: Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Moodys Analytics, C.A.R.

2010

2011

2012

2013

LENDING STANDARD DROVE 50% OF THE


DECLINE BETWEEN 2001 AND 2012

AFFORDABLE HOMES IN SHORT SUPPLY

HOMEOWNERSHIP GAP

HOMEOWNERSHIP RATES
California Vs. U.S. 9.9% gap in 2014
75%

CA

Peak: 69.0%

70%
65%

US

64.5%

64.8%

60%
Peak: 60.2%
55%
53.7%
50%
45%

SERIES: Homeownership Rates


SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau

54.9%

HOMEOWNERSHIP RATE BY AGE OF


HOUSEHOLDER

SOURCE: Census Bureau

HOMEOWNERSHIP RATES BY AGE


California
80%
75%

65 &Above

70%

45 64

65%
60%

Overall Rate
35 44

55%
50%

Under 35

45%
40%
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004 2005 2006

SERIES: Homeownership Rates


SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey

2007

2008 2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

GROWTH IN NUMBER OF IMMIGRANT OR NATIVE


BORN OWNER (MILLIONS)
12
forecast
10
8
6
4

Native-Born

2
0

Immigrants
1980-90

1990-00

2000-10

2010-20

Source: Dowell Myers and John Pitkin, Immigrant Contributions to the Housing Market RIHA, Mortgage Bankers Association,
2013

SHARE OF FIRST-TIME BUYERS UP IN 14 BUT


STILL BELOW LONG-RUN AVERAGE
% First-Time Home Buyers

Long Run Average

50%

40%

Long Run Average = 38%

28.1%

30%

30.5%

20%

10%

0%
2005

2006

2007

2008

QUESTION: Was the buyer a first-time buyer?


SERIES: 2014 Housing Market Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

WHY DO WE CARE ABOUT LOW LEVEL


OF FIRST-TIME BUYERS?
It signals a constrained flow of new households in the
housing market
Trade-up market cannot be replenished in the long
run
First-time buyers represent the main impulse that
drives the states homeownership rate

REASONS FOR RENTING INSTEAD OF BUYING


Can't afford to buy

44%
9%

Poor credit / Can't qualify


Renting is easier

6%

Young/Starting out/Not ready

6%

Flexibility/Freedom if renting

6%

Cost/Upkeep/Responsibility

5%

Plan to / Saving for down

5%
3%

Never considered it/No interest


Disabled/On disability

2%

SERIES: 2013 Renter Survey


SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

MILLENIALS DIFFERENT
HOUSING ASPIRATIONS OR LACK
OF MEANS?

MILLENNIAL TRUE HOMEOWNERSHIP FALLING

AS AN INCREASING NUMBER OF THEM


STILL LIVE WITH THEIR PARENTS

SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Wells Fargo Securities LLC

IMMIGRANT SHARE OF GROWTH IN


HOME OWNERS
2010-2020

100%
90%

West

Midwest

South

Northeast

80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

Source: Dowell Myers and John Pitkin, Immigrant Contributions to the Housing
Market RIHA, Mortgage Bankers Association, 2013

Dowell Myers, USCPrice

MORE IMMIGRANTS FULFILLING THEIR


AMERICAN DREAMS

Source: Dowell Myers and John Pitkin, Immigrant Contributions to the Housing
Market RIHA, Mortgage Bankers Association, 2013

CA MILLENNIALS - OVER 1/3 LIVE WITH THEIR PARENTS


45%

41%
36%

40%
35%
30%

20%

25%
20%
15%
10%

1%

5%

1%

0%
I rent

I live with my
parents

SERIES: 2014 Millennials Survey


SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

What is your current living situation?

I own

I live in a dorm

Other:

MANY OF THEM, HOWEVER, PLAN TO


LEAVE THE NEST BY 2018

SOURCE: 2013 Demand Institute Housing & Community Survey; 2013 Demand Institute Housing Forecasts

MILLENNIALS PUT OFF MARRIAGE,


BUT IT IS STILL IN THEIR PLAN

SOURCE: American Community Survey; 2013 Demand Institute Housing & Community Survey

MILLENNIALS BELIEVE IN HOMEOWNERSHIP

SOURCE: 2013 Demand Institute Housing & Community Survey

MILLENNIALS BIGGEST CONCERNS


Price/Affordability (45%)

Problems with Credit, Mortgages, or Taxes (19%)

Maintenance/Upkeep (14%)

Satisfaction with Home/Location (7%)

Responsibility (4%)
What are your biggest concerns about home ownership?
SERIES: 2014 Millennials Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

STUDENT LOAN DEBT:25% OF RENTERS


Student Loan Debt

Amount of Debt
<$10,000
Refused, 2%

No, 75%

78%

$10-$20K

8%

$20-$50K

6%

Yes, 23%

SERIES: 2013 Renter Survey


SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

$50-$100K

3%

> $100K

2%

Refused

2%

STUDENT DEBT: DRAGS ON HOME SALES

PERSPECTIVE ON STUDENT LOANS, MAJORITY


NOT AFFECTED

CALIFORNIAS HOUSING DELIMMA


Even with everything (or at least most things) going right, our
homeownership market is in trouble
The rental market, even with the conversion of 500,000 SFHs, is
still exhibiting inadequate supply
CA Housing Needs = Minimally 165,000 Units Annually
Regulatory Problem
Impact Fees
Public Attitudes

BUSINESS IMPACTS - FEWER HOUSING UNITS


BEING TURNED OVER
SINCE THE
GREAT RECESSION
Housing Turnover Rate
(Single-Family Homes only)

10%
9%

CA

US

8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%

SERIES: Percent of existing single-family homes being sold


SOURCE: Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Moodys Analytics, C.A.R.

5.0%
4.6%

HOMEOWNERS DO NOT MOVE


AS OFTEN AS THEY USED TO
Tenure of Homeowners (Years)
30

CA

Long Run Average

25
18.9

20
Long Run Average = 15.9

15
10
5

SERIES: Percent of existing single-family homes being sold


SOURCE: Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Moodys Analytics, C.A.R.

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

1987

1986

NET MIGRATION CA TO OTHER STATES

NET MIGRATION BY ANNUAL INCOME, 2007-2013

HOMEOWNERS DO NOT MOVE


AS OFTEN AS THEY USED TO
Tenure of Homeowners (Years)
35

CA

US

Reasons for longer tenure:


Mortgage Lock-in effects

30

Underwater homeowners

25

Lack of affordable trade-up/down


properties

20
15

More costly to move than to remodel

10

Investors using properties as rental

Prop. 13?
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012

SERIES: Percent of existing single-family homes being sold


SOURCE: Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Moodys Analytics, C.A.R.

HOUSING PRODUCTION GAP

CA PERMITS UP BUT MORE UNITS NEEDED


2014: 85,065 Units, Up 3.4% from 2013
2015f: 89,318 Units

350000

Single Family

Multi-Family

300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
SERIES: New Housing Permits
SOURCE: Construction Industry Research Board

Household Growth: 165,000/yr

HOUSING CONSTRUCTION HAS SLOWED IN THE


CALIFORNIAS COASTAL METROS
Total Number of SFH Building Permits by Region
Inland

Coastal

120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000

SERIES: New Single Family Housing Permits


SOURCE: Construction Industry Research Board

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

# OF HOUSEHOLDS LOST IN THE GREAT


RECESSION
1,200,000

Households not formed

1,000,000
957,834

800,000
600,000
575,156
400,000
200,000
0
-200,000

-5,485

165,105

2009

2010

SOURCE: California Dept. of Finance; compiled by C.A.R.

223,058
2011

2012

2009 - 2012

POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLDS WILL


CONTINUE TO GROW
California 1970-2020
45,000,000
40,000,000
35,000,000
30,000,000
25,000,000
20,000,000
15,000,000
10,000,000
5,000,000

SOURCE: Moodys Analytics

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

HOW DID WE GET HERE?


Why the Production Shortfall?

Shortage of Land:
Production shortfall greatest in cities where need is most
critical

High Costs of Development


Fees in most California communities are higher than
elsewhere in US
Infill development costs higher than suburban development
costs
Environmental policies, etc increase costs
Lengthy permitting process increases cost per unit
produced and favors deep pockets

HOW DID WE GET HERE?


General Desire for Low Density Land Use
Preference for detached single family homes
Disdain for multifamily developments

Cost of service to cities higher than other land uses


NIMBYism:
Desire to preserve existing character of community
Dislike for multifamily, higher density development by residents and
officials
Quality of life concerns
Fear of crime and other negative aspects associated with density

WHAT IS OUR FUTURE?

If current trends continue, California will build less than 60


percent of the new housing needed over the next 20 years.

Little Hoover Commission Report on Housing in California

SOLVING CALIFORNIAS
HOUSING PROBLEM

SOLUTIONS
Production Gap is Primary Source of CAs Housing
Problems
Solutions must include:
Increase in Production

Infill and brownfield opportunities in urban areas where


shortage is critical

Revitalization of Neighborhoods
Change Incentive Structure Facing Cities

Fiscal
Housing & Zoning Requirements
Enforce housing elements of general plans, create incentives to
comply

Improve Business & Legal Climate for Developers


CEQA Reform

SOLUTIONS
Attitude Shift is Essential to Moving Toward
Solutions

By Households as Residents
By Households as Taxpayers
By Local Elected Officials
By State Officials

and an Attitude Shift Requires Education and


Heightened Awareness of Problems, Implications, and
Solutions!
Solutions will take time

SOLUTIONS - LOCAL
Permanent city affordable housing subsidy source
Dedication of a share of county tax increment financing
to affordable housing
Revise zoning code and/or density bonus ordinance to
increase
Ease parking and set-aside requirements to enable more
backyard homes; granny flats
Convert unlawful but affordable units
Collaborate with business community

SOLUTIONS - STATE
CEQA Reform
Inclusionary Zoning
Experiment with social impact bonds & health funds
as a source

2015 FORECAST

CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK


2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f
SFH Resales (000s)

416.5

422.6

439.8

414.9

383.3

398.4

24.5% -12.3%

1.4%

4.1%

-5.9%

-7.6%

3.9%

Median Price ($000s) $275.0 $305.0 $286.0

$319.3

$407.2

$447.0

$473.1

% Change
-21.1% 10.9%
Housing Affordability
Index
51%
48%

-6.2%

11.6%

27.5%

9.8%

5.8%

53%

51%

36%

30%

28%

4.5%

3.7%

4.0%

4.3%

4.5%

% Change

30-Yr FRM

474.9

5.0%

4.7%

SERIES: CA Housing Market Outlook


SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

THANKYOU!

www.car.org/marketdata
joels@car.org

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