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drugs in the United States. This company has 6 drugs in the top 100 drugs
by U.S. sales. It has multi variations in various kinds of drugs. Their one of
the best selling anti-infective cream is Pevisone which has a very large
demand all over the world. So the volume of sales is also very high for its
increment demand.
treatm
ent
with
PEVAR
YL
should
be
starte
Introduction
d and
contin
ued
until
compl
ete
cure is
obtain
is
ed
highly
effective
topical
steroid
with
rapid
anti-inflammatory,
Occlus
allergic action, at the concentration chosen for PEVISONE-- the two active
ive
dressi
full activity.
ngs
should
not be
used.
Like
with
any
other
PEVISONE is applied to the affected are and gently rubbed in with the
finger; this should be done once or twice a day; in the morning and/or n
the evening. A two-week therapy with PEVISONE is usaually sufficient to
control the concomitant inflammatory symptoms of mycoses.Thereafter,
G FORECASTIN
Scope
and
Limit
ations
of
The
Study
This
study
has
been
done
based
on the
fourty
quarte
sales
e from
2
3
4
5
four
rs
of
volum
2001
to
2011.
We tried to propose suitable model for forecasting with the data series in
hand. We have also tried to forecast sales volume based on several
forecasting techniques. Scope of the study also included the Testing of the
forecasting accuracy.
Here, we took quarter sales volume & used it for the remaining quarters.
Not enough statistical data has allowed little space for in depth analysis &
thus to some extent might have hampered the accuracy.
G FORECASTIN
Data Source
Quali
tative
Meth
ods:
Qualit
ative
foreca
Forecasting
sting
techni
ques
gener
example might be
ally
emplo
judgm
ent of
expert
the
s
Types of Forecasting
in
the
appro
Mainly,
the forecasting can be classified as:
1
Qualitative methods
2
Quantitative methods
priate
field
to
G FORECASTIN
sales
of the
produc
t.
calcul
that relies heavily on historical demand data to project the future size of
ate
the
To
foreca
Forecasting Techniques and Analysis
sting
accura
cy, we
have
used
the
followi
ng
techni
ques:
1
Mea
n
a
b
s
o
l
u
t
e
Trend Analysis
Winters Method
eviation (MAD)
2
3
For preparing this report we have used Microsoft Word, MS-Excel and
MINITAB
G FORECASTIN
F MA
t
Where,
i
i1
G FORECASTIN
Percent
Variable
Actual
Fit
s
Forecasts
95.0% PI
Moving
Average
Lengt
h
3
Accuracy
Measures
MAPE
60
MAD
327
MSD
169515
2000
Demand
1500
1000
500
0
-500
-1000
1
10
15
20
Index
25
30
35
95
90
40
45
F
i
g
u
r
e
:
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
p
l
o
t
G FORECASTIN
Percent
Variable
Actual
Fits
2000
Forecasts
95.0% PI
Moving
Average
Length 5
Accuracy
Measures
MAP
E
55.2
MAD
237.9
MSD
97994.8
Demand
1500
1000
500
0
10
15
20
Index
25
30
35
95
90
80
40
45
F
i
g
u
r
e
:
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
p
l
o
t
s
G FORECASTIN
1)
1
+ (
= Smoothing constant
At1 = Actual demand for previous period
200
0
Demand
150
0
Smoothing Constant
100
0
Alpha
0.263014
Accuracy Measures
MAPE
58
MAD
303
14897
MSD
7
500
0
-500
1
10
G FORECASTIN
95
90
Percent
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
5
-1000
-500
0
Residual
500
+1
Where,
= Smoothed Forecast
= Current Trend
Estimate
=
=
+ (
+ (
0<
<= 1
0<
G FORECASTIN
Percent
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
Variabl
e
Actual
Fits
Forecasts
4000
3000
2000
95.0% PI
10
Smoothing Constants
Demand
1000
Alpha (level)
Gamma
(trend)
1.37580
0.01000
Accuracy Measures
MAPE
61
-1000
MAD
MSD
373
208377
-2000
-3000
-4000
1
10
15 20
25 30
Index
35
40
45
95
90
-1
Fi
gu
re:
Pr
ob
ab
ilit
y
pl
ot
s
for
10
G FORECASTIN
Trend Analysis
Trend analysis represents a picture about the position and pattern of data.
It deals with the consistency and ups and downs of the obtained data. It
can be parabolic trend, Exponential trend or growth curve. A simple plot of
data often can reveal the existence and nature of trend. A linear trend
model is used to predict future values of estimate.
=
+
Where,
t = Specified number
of time periods from t = 0 ,
Ft =forecast for
period t,
a =value of Ft at t =
0,
b =slope of the line.
We obtain the fitted linear trend
equation as follows:
Trend
Analysis
Plot for
Demand
Linear
Trend
Model
Yt =
1620 30.357
6*t
2500
Demand
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1
10
Variable
Actual
Fits
Forecasts
Accuracy
Measures
MAPE
MAD
MSD
G FORECASTIN
11
dividi
ng the
Normal Probability
Plot
data
(response is Demand)
with
Percent
99
the
95
trend
90
comp
80
onent.
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
12
-1000
-500
0
Residual
500
G FORECASTIN
Seasonal Indices
2.0
1.2
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.8
0.5
0.6
1
Percent Variation by
Season
Residuals by Season
400
30
200
20
0
10
0
-200
1
FORECASTING
13
Multiplicative Model
2500
Detrended Data
2000
2000
2.0
1000
Demand
1.5
1.0
0.5
0
1
18
27
36
1500
1000
18
Index
200
1000
0
-200
0
1
18
27
36
Index
18
Figure:
Decomposition Plot
of Demand
14
Fitted Trend Equation is as follows:
Yt = 1647.9 - 31.3036*t
G FORECASTIN
Win
ter
s
Met
hod
95
Wint
90
ers'
80
Meth
Percent
70
60
50
40
30
od
smo
20
othe
1
0
s
data
by
Holt-
Wint
ers
expo
nent
ial
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
Residual
100
200
smo
othi
ng
and
15
G FORECASTIN
th
se
as
on
al
co
po
ne
nt,
p=
Se
as
on
al
pe
L
T
S
Where, Lt==
Level
at time t1 ,
Weight for the level,
Tt= Trend at time t,
= Weight for
/
(Y S
rio
d,
Yt= Is the
data
value at
time t,
[L L
(Y / L )
t
=
Fitte
d
valu
e,
or
one
peri
odahe
adfore
t
(L
t 1
cast at time t.
16
G FORECASTIN
90
80
Percent
3000
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Smoothing
Constants
Alpha
(level)
Gamma
(trend)
Delta
(seasonal)
Accuracy
Measures
MAPE
MAD
MSD
Demand
2000
1000
-1000
1
10
15
20
25
30
Index
35
40
45
-1500
Figure:
Probabil
ity Plot
for
Winters
Method
of
Forecas
ting
17
Normal Probability Plot
(response is Demand)
99
95
-1000
G FORECASTIN
and
rules.
The
comparisons
are
down
significant
forecasting
models
individually.
Four Months Forecasts for different methods of
Forecasting:
Quarter
1
Forecasting
Methods
Jan-Mar,
2011
Quarter
2
AprilJune,
2011
Quarter
3
July-Sep,
2011
Quarter
4
OctDec,
2011
Trend Analysis
Moving Average
for
Demand (3
Period)
Moving Average
for
Demand (5
253.713
223.356
192.998
162.641
40
158.111
158.111
158.111
158.111
60
MAP
E
18
292.121
292.121
292.121
292.121
55.2
323.54
150.76
148.48
139.16
G FORECASTIN
Accuracy Test
Con
troll
ing
the
Fore
cast
given below:
MAD =
MSE =
Trac
|Actual Forecast|
n
king
(Actual Forecast)2 n 1
Sign
al:
Man
y
fore
cast
s are
mad
e on
a
regu
lar
inter
val.
Beca
use
values of demand.
good
measurement
of
controlling
19
G FORECASTIN
FORECASTIN
G
20
After plotting the tracking signals in different methods of forecasting, we got some
effective and some
ineffective methods of forecasting. Here we considered the range of normal value
of tracking signal 8. According to the plotted tracking signal the ineffective
10.00
0.00
-10.00
-20.00
-5.00
9
1011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132333435363
1 23 45 6 78
738394041
-10.00
-15.00
-20.00
-25.00
Fig
ur
e:
Tra
ck
ng
Sig
na
of
De
co
m
po
sit
on
Me
th
od
of
Fo
ec
as
ing
-10.000
-20.000
-30.000
11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43
-20.00
-30.00
21
G FORECASTIN
100.00
4.00
3.00
0.00
-100.00
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43
-200.00
2.00
1.00
-300.00
0.00
12
According to the plotted tracking signal the effective method of forecasting are
presented below:
-1.00
-2.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
-5.00
9
10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383
12 34 567 8
94041424344
-10.00
-15.00
Fi
g
u
r
e
:
T
r
a
c
k
i
n
g
S
i
g
n
a
l
o
f
22
G FORECASTIN
Conclusion
A
prelimi
nary
exami
nation
reveal
ed
that
most reliable result. This report also examines the forecasting accuracy of
two
several
simple
models
including
trend
analysis,
moving
average,
single
foreca
sting
metho
dologi
es
would
be
appro
priate
Since our data is having high trend, we can certainly say that in the near
future demand will be changed regarding the seasonal impact. Though
lack of a very long historical data and high seasonality has impacted on
the accuracy of the forecast.
for the
data
series
Doubl
e
Exponential Smoothing and Trend Analysis methods are applicable for the
data set in hand. These models were tested for post forecast accuracy and
each proved to be capable of generating relatively accurate forecasts of
the demand volume estimates, with the curve fit/seasonal dummy
variable models holding the edge.
23
G FORECASTIN
We faced few problems conducting the research which are Many forecasts are made on a regular interval. Because
forecast errors are the rule rather than exception, there will be a
succession of forecast errors. By tracking the forecast errors and
analyzing them can provide useful insight on whether or not
forecasts are performing satisfactorily.
Forecasting is only a part of our operations management
course, so it covers only a limited field of interest.
We only used Minitab and Excel for this work, where as there
are several other software dedicated for forecasting, i.e. R stat.
but we could not use them because of the limitation of our
FORECASTING
technical knowhow.
24
Bibliography
1Operations Management, 8
th
http://www.duke.edu/~rnau/seasarim.htm
scat=2B2B8263-1505-4358-B9E4- 51C279398C98#p30
FORECASTING
http://home.ubalt.edu/ntsbarsh/stat-data/forecast.htm#rAutorModels
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autoregressive_integrated_moving_average
25