ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I would like to extend a vote of thanks to following people without

whose guidance, help and support it would not have been
possible to make this project.
Ms. Neetu Jain My Business Statistics teacher who guided me
and motivated me to work on this topic. Having studied Science in
school it became very easy to relate the topics covered in class
due to very good classroom teachings. She has given me her time
and has taken the pain to go through my project. Not just that,
she has inspired me to try my best at the project and has instilled
and interest in me for the subject.
I would also like to thank my parents for their kind support and
help throughout the course of making the project.

Mrigank Sanghvi | Statistics Project | 1

CERTIFICATE
This is to certify that the Project Work titled Statistical Analysis of
the Share Price of Reliance Industries Ltd. is a bonafide work of
Mrigank Sanghvi (50302) carried out in partial fulfillment for the
award of degree of Bachelor of University of Delhi under my
guidance. This project work is original and not submitted earlier
for the award of any degree / diploma or associate ship of any
other
University
/
Institution.

Signature

Mrigank Sanghvi | Statistics Project | 2

INDEX
1. Company Profile
2. General Milestone
3. Financial Milestone
4. Objectives
5. Statistical Tools Used
6. Reliance Industries Ltd. Data
7. Analysis of the Data
8. Interpretation
9. Conclusion

Mrigank Sanghvi | Statistics Project | 3

COMPANY PROFILE
RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LTD.
KEY INFORMATION
Reliance Industries Ltd. Key Facts
Web Address

www.ril.com

Turnover ($ Mn)

200,400

Financial year-end:

March

Number of Employees:

23365

BSE

500325

NSE

RELIANCE

(2010)

COMPANY OVERVIEW KEY

Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) is one of India's largest private sector
companies and a Fortune Global 500 company. Its major activities include
the exploration and production of oil and gas, petroleum refining and
marketing, petrochemicals, textiles, retailing and Special Economic Zone
(SEZ) business. It is the largest polyester yarn and fiber producer in the
world. It is also among the top five to ten producers in the world in major
petrochemical products. Its key asset in India is the refinery at Jamnagar,
Gujarat. The company is headquartered in Mumbai, India and employs
approximately 24,698 people.

BUSINESS OVERVIEW
Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) is the largest private sector company in
India, operating in more than 100 countries around the world. The company
has exploration and production interests in India, Yemen and Oman. RILs
operations are organized into three reportable business segments:
Petrochemicals, including the manufacturing and marketing of polymers,
polyester, polyester intermediates and chemicals; Refining and Marketing of
petroleum products and others which involves the exploration and
production of oil and gas, textiles, SEZ business and retailing business. RILs
principal subsidiaries include:
Reliance Petroleum Limited
Reliance Retail Limited
Mrigank Sanghvi | Statistics Project | 4

 Reliance Industries (Middle East) DMCC

MISSION STATEMENT
RILs vision is to reach out to its stakeholders by creating value for
shareholders, offering a rewarding environment for its employees, providing
high quality products and services for customers and improving quality of life
for communities.

STRATEGY
RIL is among Indias largest private sector business companies on all major
financial parameters including sales, profits, net worth and assets. The
company strives for value addition at every stage across all business
segments. RIL is the one of the very few companies globally to have
achieved a remarkable degree of vertical integration and value addition.
RILs business strategy emphasizes on building and sustaining leadership
position across all its product categories, by delivering the best and valueadded products to its customers. The company seeks to:

Pursue attractive trade opportunities

Implement vertical integration
Focus on prudent financial management
Invest in high growth opportunities

The company also believes in creating its businesses and facilities in an

organic manner. It has grown by setting up world-class projects, scaling them
up to meet local and global demand, investing in R&D to develop future
prospects and markets and developing a large pool of qualified and skilled
manpower. The company has followed the scheme of selective mergers and
acquisitions, which ensure greater synergy with its operations.
For the petrochemicals and refining business, the companys strategy is to
continuously strive for global leadership and be amongst the lowest cost
producers worldwide. The company has been investing for effective research,
standardized quality, safety and environment and has thereby set new
benchmarks in the industry.
In the near future, RIL aims to make strategic decisions with regard to the
emerging businesses that it is seeding today. These include:
Identifying new businesses with high growth potential
Mrigank Sanghvi | Statistics Project | 5

 Investing in businesses that can scale rapidly and generate superior

returns
Aspiring to be lowest cost manufacturer and service provider

Mrigank Sanghvi | Statistics Project | 6

GENERAL MILESTONE
2010
During the year, RIL and BP announced a strategic
partnership in the oil and gas business. This partnership
comprises BP taking 30 per cent stake in 23 oil and gas
production sharing contracts that Reliance operates in India,
including the KG-D6 block, and the formation of a joint
venture (50:50) for sourcing and marketing gas in India.
During the year, the Company took a significant step by
entering into partnerships in the United States of America
with Atlas Energy, Pioneer Natural Resources and Carrizo Oil
& Gas through three distinctive joint venture agreements. It
has also entered into a separate joint venture with Pioneer
Natural Resources aimed at addressing the mid-stream
opportunity in gas evacuation and transportation.
During the year, RIL and Russia's SIBUR announced a joint
venture for the setting up of a facility for producing 100,000
tonnes of butyl rubber in India.
During the year, RIL acquired a 95% stake in Infotel
Broadband Services Limited, which emerged as a successful
bidder in all the 22 circles of the auction for Broadband
Wireless Access (BWA) spectrum conducted by the
Department of Telecommunication, Government of India. RIL
has invested Rs. 4,201.64 crore by way of subscription to
equity capital issued by Infotel Broadband.
2009
RIL joins the league of global deepwater oil and gas
operators - RIL commenced production of hydrocarbons in its
KGD6 block in the Krishna Godavari basin with the
production of sweet crude of 420 API. The production of oil in
Mrigank Sanghvi | Statistics Project | 7

KG-D6 was commissioned in just over two years of its

discovery, making it the worlds fastest green-field
deepwater oil development project.
With the commissioning of the new refinery in its Special
Economic Zone (SEZ), Jamnagar has now become the
petroleum hub of the world. With 1.24 Million Barrels Per Day
(MBPD) of nominal crude processing capacity, it is the single
largest refining complex in the world.
RPL merger with RIL: Value creation through scale and
synergies - The merger of Reliance Petroleum Limited (RPL)
with Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) has enabled seamless
integration of operational scale and financial synergies that
existed between the two Companies. Assets and liabilities of
RPL have been transferred to RIL with effect from 1st April
2008, as per the approval granted by the Hon. High Courts of
Mumbai and Gujarat. Shareholders of RPL received 1 share of
RIL in lieu of every 16 shares of RPL held by them, as per the
scheme of merger. Accordingly, 6.92 crore new equity shares
of RIL have been allotted to the shareholders of RPL.

Mrigank Sanghvi | Statistics Project | 8

FINANCIAL MILESTONE
2011

Revenue crossed Rs. 2,50,000 crore mark (Rs. 2,58,651

crore, US$ 58.0 billion), Net Profit crossed Rs. 20,000 crore
mark (Rs. 20,286 crore, US$ 4.5 billion) and Total Assets
crossed Rs. 2,80,000 crore mark (Rs. 2,84,719 crore, US$
63.8 billion), unparalleled in the Indian Private sector.

Exports crossed Rs. 1,40,000 crore mark (Rs. 1,46,667 crore,

US$ 32.9 billion), 13.4% of India's total exports.

RIL declares Dividend of 80%. Payout of Rs 2,385 Crore, one

of the highest in the Indian Private Sector.

2010

Revenue crossed Rs. 2,00,000 crore mark (Rs. 2,00,400

crore, US$ 44.6 billion), Net Profit crossed Rs. 16,000 crore
mark (Rs. 16,236 crore, US$ 3.6 billion) and Total Assets
crossed Rs. 2,50,000 crore mark (Rs. 2,51,006 crore, US$
55.9 billion), unparalleled in the Indian Private sector.

Exports crossed Rs. 1,00,000 crore mark (Rs. 1,10,176 crore,

US$ 24.5 billion), 14.5% of India's total exports.

RIL declares Dividend of 70%. Payout of Rs 2,084 Crore, one

of the highest in the Indian Private Sector.

2009

Total Assets crossed Rs. 2,00,000 crore mark (Rs. 2,45,706

crore, US$ 48.44 billion), Networth crossed Rs. 1,00,000
crore mark (Rs. 1,26,373 crore, US$ 24.92 billion),
unparalleled in the Indian Private sector.

RIL declares Dividend of 130%. Payout of Rs 1,897 Crore, one

of the highest in the Indian Private Sector.
Mrigank Sanghvi | Statistics Project | 9

OBJECTIVES
To analyze the Reliance Industries Ltd. Share Price
To see the trend prevalent in the Stock Market & in the Stock of
Reliance Industries Ltd. when the recession was setting in.
To calculate daily returns on Reliance Industries Ltd. & BSE SENSEX.
To calculate and interpret various statistical measures like Arithmetic
Mean, Median, Mode, Quartiles, Range, Standard Deviation, Variance,
Skewness, Correlation, etc.
To calculate the extent of correlation between Reliance Industries Ltd.
& SENSEX
To compute the regression equations of Reliance Industries Ltd. &
SENSEX
To find out, which of the two of Reliance Industries Ltd. & SENSEX, is
less volatile by comparing the coefficient of variations

Mrigank Sanghvi | Statistics Project | 10

STATISTICAL TOOLS USED

ARITHMETIC MEAN
An arithmetic mean is a single value within the range of the data that is used
to represent all of the values in the series. Since an average is somewhere
within the range of the data, it is also called a measure of central value.

MEDIAN
The median refers to the middle most value in the observation. In case of
median one half of the items in the distribution have a value the size of a
median value or smaller and one half has a value the size of the median
value or larger.

MODE
Mode is defined as that value which occurs the maximum number of times,
i.e., having the maximum frequency. In some fields, notably education,
sample data are often called scores, and the sample mode is known as the
modal score.

STANDARD DEVIATION
The standard deviation concept was introduced by Karl Pearson in 1823. It
measures the absolute dispersion, the greater the standard deviation, for the
greater will be the magnitude of the deviations of the values from their
mean. It is also known as the Root mean square deviation.

VARIANCE
The term variance was used to describe the square of the standard deviation
by R.A. Fisher in 1913. The concept of variance is highly important in
advanced work where it is possible to split the total into several parts each
attributable to one of the factors causing variation in their original series.

Mrigank Sanghvi | Statistics Project | 11

COEFFICIENT OF VARIATION
The relative measure of dispersion is known as the coefficient of variation. It
is the most commonly used measure of relative variation. It is used in such
problems where we want to compare the variability of two or more than two
series.

SKEWNESS
Skewness refers to the asymmetry or the lack of symmetry in the shape of a
frequency distribution. A distribution is said to be skewed when the mean
and the median fall at different points in the distribution and the balance is
shifted to one side or the other- to left or right.

CORRELATION ANALYSIS
Correlation analysis attempts to determine the degree of relationship
between the variables. If two or more quantities vary in sympathy so that
movements in one tend to be accompanied by corresponding movements in
the other(s) they are said to be correlated.

REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression is the measure of the average relationship between two or more
variables in terms of the original units of the data. It attempts to establish
the nature of relationship between variables that is to study the functional
relationship between the variables and thereby provide a mechanism for
prediction, or forecasting.

REGRESSION EQUATION
Regression equations are algebraic expressions of the regression lines. Since
there are two regression lines there are two regression equations- the
regression equation of X on Y is used to describe the variations in the values
of X for given changes in Y and vice-versa.

Mrigank Sanghvi | Statistics Project | 12

RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LTD. DATA

For 6-Sept-2007 to 5-Sept-2008

Date

Low
Price

Close
Price

30 Day
Moving

BSE
SENSEX

Average
5-Sep08
4-Sep08
2-Sep08
1-Sep08
29-Aug08
28-Aug08
27-Aug08
26-Aug08
25-Aug08
22-Aug08
21-Aug08
20-Aug08
19-Aug08
18-Aug08
14-Aug08
13-Aug08
12-Aug08
11-Aug08
8-Aug08
7-Aug08
6-Aug08
5-Aug08
4-Aug08
1-Aug08

2067.05

2079.40

2217.05

2133.00

2152.65

2223.25

2125.10

2213.55

2223.31

2106.00

2140.55

2221.30

2075.00

2136.75

2220.37

2057.00

2073.70

2216.33

2140.00

2147.85

2212.05

2145.90

2179.65

2206.35

2221.10

2230.95

2201.92

2191.00

2245.65

2194.77

2204.00

2212.35

2188.05

2220.00

2244.15

2183.64

2196.10

2221.35

2174.79

2210.00

2224.95

2168.35

2260.05

2275.30

2164.15

2310.55

2340.90

2157.34

2315.50

2342.25

2150.75

2275.00

2326.00

2140.81

2230.00

2250.45

2133.06

2248.60

2271.40

2130.77

2282.00

2295.85

2129.70

2206.70

2276.00

2124.35

2233.15

2242.50

2117.36

2160.00

2299.75

2110.01

Daily
Returns

Even
t

Daily
Returns
on BSE
SENSEX

Even
t

-0.04

Loss

-0.03

Fall

-0.03

Loss

-0.01

Fall

0.03

Profit

0.04

Rise

0.00

Profit

0.00

Fall

0.03

Profit

0.04

Rise

-0.04

Loss

-0.02

Fall

-0.01

Loss

-0.01

Fall

-0.02

Loss

0.00

Rise

-0.01

Loss

0.00

Rise

0.01

Profit

0.01

Rise

-0.01

Loss

-0.03

Fall

0.01

Profit

0.01

Rise

0.00

Loss

-0.01

Fall

-0.02

Loss

-0.01

Fall

-0.03

Loss

-0.02

Fall

0.00

Loss

-0.01

Fall

0.01

Profit

-0.02

Fall

0.03

Profit

0.02

Rise

-0.01

Loss

0.00

Rise

-0.01

Loss

0.00

Rise

0.01

Profit

0.01

Rise

0.01

Profit

0.03

Rise

-0.03

Loss

-0.01

Fall

0.04

Profit

0.02

Rise

on RIL
14483.8
3
14899.1
0
15049.8
6
14498.5
1
14564.5
3
14048.3
4
14296.7
9
14482.2
2
14450.3
5
14401.4
9
14243.7
3
14678.2
3
14543.7
3
14645.6
6
14724.1
8
15093.1
2
15212.1
3
15503.9
2
15167.8
2
15117.2
5
15073.5
4
14961.0
7
14577.8
7
14656.6
9

Mrigank Sanghvi | Statistics Project | 13

31-Jul08
30-Jul08
29-Jul08
28-Jul08
25-Jul08
24-Jul08
23-Jul08
22-Jul08
21-Jul08
18-Jul08
17-Jul08
16-Jul08
15-Jul08
14-Jul08
11-Jul08
10-Jul08

2154.00

2206.20

2103.24

2084.95

2163.20

2104.53

2077.30

2085.20

2108.54

2105.55

2179.10

2116.68

2132.25

2147.35

2120.20

2255.10

2306.55

2124.23

2180.00

2265.50

2123.41

2136.60

2154.30

2123.22

2090.60

2153.30

2124.73

1995.05

2112.65

2125.05

1965.00

2015.55

2129.28

1922.50

1945.35

2137.01

1970.00

1976.80

2149.08

1992.35

2046.80

2163.41

1992.00

2016.40

2173.71

2034.00

2044.10

2186.55

9-Jul-08

2011.15

2079.95

2200.63

8-Jul-08

1931.20

1978.60

2215.36

7-Jul-08

1998.00

2028.15

2232.51

4-Jul-08

2050.00

2099.00

2249.07

3-Jul-08

2026.00

2071.10

2264.26

2-Jul-08

1991.20

2143.10

2282.47

1-Jul-08
30-Jun08
27-Jun08
26-Jun08
25-Jun08
24-Jun08
23-Jun08
20-Jun08
19-Jun-

2025.30

2044.20

2299.96

2076.00

2093.25

2318.55

2137.00

2181.90

2336.62

2145.55

2239.25

2351.31

2015.00

2135.35

2361.00

2012.00

2066.20

2373.20

1984.05

2022.20

2389.48

2079.10
2230.00

2096.60
2245.00

2406.33
2425.31

14355.7
5
14287.2
1
13791.5
4
14349.1
1
14274.9
4
14777.0
1
14942.2
8
14104.2
0
13850.0
4
13635.4
0
13111.8
5
12575.8
0
12676.1
9
13330.5
1
13469.8
5
13926.2
4
13964.2
6
13349.6
5
13525.9
9
13454.0
0
13094.1
1
13664.6
2
12961.6
8
13461.6
0
13802.2
2
14421.8
2
14220.0
7
14106.5
8
14293.3
2
14571.2
9
15087.9

0.02

Profit

0.00

Rise

0.04

Profit

0.04

Rise

-0.05

Loss

-0.04

Fall

0.01

Profit

0.01

Rise

-0.07

Loss

-0.03

Fall

0.02

Profit

-0.01

Fall

0.05

Profit

0.06

Rise

0.00

Profit

0.02

Rise

0.02

Profit

0.02

Rise

0.05

Profit

0.04

Rise

0.03

Profit

0.04

Rise

-0.02

Loss

-0.01

Fall

-0.04

Loss

-0.05

Fall

0.01

Profit

-0.01

Fall

-0.01

Loss

-0.03

Fall

-0.02

Loss

0.00

Fall

0.05

Profit

0.05

Rise

-0.03

Loss

-0.01

Fall

-0.03

Loss

0.01

Rise

0.01

Profit

0.03

Rise

-0.03

Loss

-0.04

Fall

0.05

Profit

0.05

Rise

-0.02

Loss

-0.04

Fall

-0.04

Loss

-0.02

Fall

-0.03

Loss

-0.04

Fall

0.05

Profit

0.01

Rise

0.03

Profit

0.01

Rise

0.02

Profit

-0.01

Fall

-0.04

Loss

-0.02

Fall

-0.07
-0.02

Loss
Loss

-0.03
-0.02

Fall
Fall

Mrigank Sanghvi | Statistics Project | 14

08
18-Jun08
17-Jun08
16-Jun08
13-Jun08
12-Jun08
11-Jun08
10-Jun08

2275.00

2283.50

2439.89

2262.00

2329.20

2452.26

2262.00

2284.85

2463.47

2252.25

2268.30

2476.47

2185.00

2281.75

2488.02

2200.00

2260.00

2500.40

2140.10

2199.40

2511.47

9-Jun-08

2112.00

2163.10

2525.64

6-Jun-08

2212.00

2239.35

2539.56

5-Jun-08

2177.20

2247.65

2550.83

4-Jun-08

2285.10

2307.20

2562.82

3-Jun-08

2318.60

2406.80

2573.98

2-Jun-08
30-May08
29-May08
28-May08
27-May08
26-May08
23-May08
22-May08
21-May08
20-May08
16-May08
15-May08
14-May08
13-May08
12-May08
9-May08
8-May08
7-May08

2332.80

2355.70

2581.66

2391.00

2401.65

2591.29

2445.25

2466.50

2598.20

2473.00

2521.80

2600.98

2481.80

2493.20

2599.18

2490.00

2524.85

2596.67

2547.00

2554.80

2591.89

2595.50

2617.35

2586.92

2570.00

2667.90

2577.08

2575.00

2602.00

2567.94

2601.00

2635.20

2559.33

2535.00

2622.65

2549.66

2484.00

2529.95

2537.72

2488.75

2501.45

2531.64

2480.00

2554.50

2524.09

2510.00

2527.65

2515.56

2653.25

2666.15

2508.46

2622.50

2682.35

2492.94

9
15422.3
1
15696.9
0
15395.8
2
15189.6
2
15250.2
0
15185.3
2
14889.2
5
15066.1
0
15572.1
8
15769.7
2
15514.7
9
15962.5
6
16063.1
8
16415.5
7
16316.2
6
16525.3
7
16275.5
9
16348.5
0
16649.6
4
16907.1
1
17243.1
6
17230.1
8
17434.9
4
17353.5
4
16978.3
5
16752.8
6
16860.9
0
16737.0
7
17080.6
5
17339.3
1

-0.02

Loss

-0.02

Fall

0.02

Profit

0.02

Rise

0.01

Profit

0.01

Rise

-0.01

Loss

0.00

Fall

0.01

Profit

0.00

Rise

0.03

Profit

0.02

Rise

0.02

Profit

-0.01

Fall

-0.04

Loss

-0.03

Fall

0.00

Loss

-0.01

Fall

-0.03

Loss

0.02

Rise

-0.04

Loss

-0.03

Fall

0.02

Profit

-0.01

Fall

-0.02

Loss

-0.02

Fall

-0.03

Loss

0.01

Rise

-0.02

Loss

-0.01

Fall

0.01

Profit

0.02

Rise

-0.01

Loss

0.00

Fall

-0.01

Loss

-0.02

Fall

-0.02

Loss

-0.02

Fall

-0.02

Loss

-0.02

Fall

0.02

Profit

0.00

Rise

-0.01

Loss

-0.01

Fall

0.00

Profit

0.00

Rise

0.04

Profit

0.02

Rise

0.01

Profit

0.01

Rise

-0.02

Loss

-0.01

Fall

0.01

Profit

0.01

Rise

-0.05

Loss

-0.02

Fall

-0.01

Loss

-0.01

Fall

0.01

Profit

0.00

Fall

Mrigank Sanghvi | Statistics Project | 15

6-May08
5-May08
2-May08
30-Apr08
29-Apr08
28-Apr08
25-Apr08
24-Apr08
23-Apr08
22-Apr08
21-Apr08
17-Apr08
16-Apr08
15-Apr08
11-Apr08
10-Apr08

2636.00

2654.40

2475.50

2651.50

2665.70

2458.53

2614.00

2674.85

2442.36

2605.15

2614.85

2430.59

2580.05

2653.00

2418.15

2583.50

2592.05

2408.92

2561.25

2624.50

2400.74

2557.10

2580.90

2389.03

2566.25

2577.20

2377.96

2600.00

2607.45

2368.48

2622.50

2642.15

2356.28

2623.15

2636.95

2345.03

2618.00

2644.80

2339.08

2489.50

2608.80

2335.47

2415.00

2550.05

2334.77

2409.00

2467.70

2335.62

9-Apr-08

2351.25

2418.05

2338.42

8-Apr-08

2358.60

2381.25

2338.81

7-Apr-08

2322.00

2405.70

2342.83

4-Apr-08

2315.00

2322.20

2345.38

3-Apr-08

2344.00

2393.75

2353.07

2-Apr-08

2305.00

2343.60

2358.35

1-Apr-08
31-Mar08
28-Mar08
27-Mar08
26-Mar08
25-Mar08
24-Mar08
19-Mar08
18-Mar-

2245.50

2345.10

2366.58

2251.00

2264.50

2372.23

2231.00

2347.55

2376.31

2245.00

2275.00

2375.53

2274.20

2298.70

2375.53

2220.00

2314.40

2379.63

2126.05

2200.80

2383.31

2148.00
2120.00

2159.05
2145.35

2395.02
2410.25

17373.0
1
17490.9
0
17600.1
2
17287.3
1
17378.4
6
17015.9
6
17125.9
8
16721.0
8
16698.0
4
16783.8
7
16739.3
3
16481.2
0
16244.1
9
16153.6
6
15807.6
4
15695.1
0
15790.5
1
15587.6
2
15757.0
8
15343.1
2
15832.5
5
15750.4
0
15626.6
2
15644.4
4
16371.2
9
16015.5
6
16086.8
3
16217.4
9
15289.4
0
14994.8
3
14833.4

0.00

Loss

-0.01

Fall

0.00

Loss

-0.01

Fall

0.02

Profit

0.02

Rise

-0.01

Loss

-0.01

Fall

0.02

Profit

0.02

Rise

-0.01

Loss

-0.01

Fall

0.02

Profit

0.02

Rise

0.00

Profit

0.00

Rise

-0.01

Loss

-0.01

Fall

-0.01

Loss

0.00

Rise

0.00

Profit

0.02

Rise

0.00

Loss

0.01

Rise

0.01

Profit

0.01

Rise

0.02

Profit

0.02

Rise

0.03

Profit

0.01

Rise

0.02

Profit

-0.01

Fall

0.02

Profit

0.01

Rise

-0.01

Loss

-0.01

Fall

0.03

Profit

0.03

Rise

-0.03

Loss

-0.03

Fall

0.02

Profit

0.01

Rise

0.00

Loss

0.01

Rise

0.03

Profit

0.00

Fall

-0.04

Loss

-0.04

Fall

0.03

Profit

0.02

Rise

-0.01

Loss

0.00

Fall

-0.01

Loss

-0.01

Fall

0.05

Profit

0.06

Rise

0.02

Profit

0.02

Rise

0.01
-0.02

Profit
Loss

0.01
0.00

Rise
Rise

Mrigank Sanghvi | Statistics Project | 16

08
17-Mar08
14-Mar08
13-Mar08
12-Mar08
11-Mar08
10-Mar08

2154.00

2180.60

2425.16

2225.00

2321.70

2437.20

2201.00

2241.65

2442.46

2360.00

2376.20

2450.06

2215.15

2346.55

2456.70

2123.10

2273.20

2463.95

7-Mar-08

2167.05

2248.80

2475.16

5-Mar-08

2227.90

2292.75

2483.22

4-Mar-08

2210.00

2241.50

2491.96

3-Mar-08
29-Feb08
28-Feb08
27-Feb08
26-Feb08
25-Feb08
22-Feb08
21-Feb08
20-Feb08
19-Feb08
18-Feb08
15-Feb08
14-Feb08
13-Feb08
12-Feb08
11-Feb08

2290.05

2304.75

2495.84

2410.00

2458.25

2503.83

2522.25

2536.70

2515.20

2571.25

2587.55

2530.52

2534.00

2575.75

2547.55

2411.00

2551.70

2567.09

2414.65

2429.80

2589.24

2458.50

2501.60

2612.52

2460.00

2482.25

2630.03

2527.10

2553.00

2648.36

2537.40

2552.00

2664.94

2466.00

2590.55

2680.39

2425.00

2514.70

2693.57

2340.00

2386.90

2706.51

2258.00

2324.15

2722.34

2230.00

2274.85

2739.77

8-Feb-08

2391.50

2421.75

2759.98

7-Feb-08

2409.00

2425.00

2775.87

6-Feb-08

2512.25

2552.05

2791.51

5-Feb-08

2570.00

2616.00

2803.00

4-Feb-08

2562.00

2592.60

2808.73

6
14809.4
9
15760.5
2
15357.3
5
16127.9
8
16123.1
5
15923.7
2
15975.5
2
16542.0
8
16339.8
9
16677.8
8
17578.7
2
17824.4
8
17825.9
9
17806.1
9
17650.5
7
17349.0
7
17734.6
8
17617.6
0
18075.6
6
18048.0
5
18115.2
5
17766.6
3
16949.1
4
16608.0
1
16630.9
1
17464.8
9
17526.9
3
18139.4
9
18663.1
6
18660.3
2

-0.06

Loss

-0.06

Fall

0.03

Profit

0.03

Rise

-0.06

Loss

-0.05

Fall

0.01

Profit

0.00

Rise

0.03

Profit

0.01

Rise

0.01

Profit

0.00

Fall

-0.02

Loss

-0.03

Fall

0.02

Profit

0.01

Rise

-0.03

Loss

-0.02

Fall

-0.07

Loss

-0.05

Fall

-0.03

Loss

-0.01

Fall

-0.02

Loss

0.00

Fall

0.00

Profit

0.00

Rise

0.01

Profit

0.01

Rise

0.05

Profit

0.02

Rise

-0.03

Loss

-0.02

Fall

0.01

Profit

0.01

Rise

-0.03

Loss

-0.03

Fall

0.00

Profit

0.00

Rise

-0.02

Loss

0.00

Fall

0.03

Profit

0.02

Rise

0.05

Profit

0.05

Rise

0.03

Profit

0.02

Rise

0.02

Profit

0.00

Fall

-0.06

Loss

-0.05

Fall

0.00

Loss

0.00

Fall

-0.05

Loss

-0.03

Fall

-0.03

Loss

-0.03

Fall

0.01

Profit

0.00

Rise

0.02

Profit

0.02

Rise

Mrigank Sanghvi | Statistics Project | 17

1-Feb-08
31-Jan08
30-Jan08
29-Jan08
28-Jan08
25-Jan08
24-Jan08
23-Jan08
22-Jan08
21-Jan08
18-Jan08
17-Jan08
16-Jan08
15-Jan08
14-Jan08
11-Jan08
10-Jan08

2424.00

2541.65

2812.80

2375.05

2479.50

2818.24

2458.60

2469.60

2826.55

2538.00

2575.65

2836.82

2440.00

2564.00

2847.26

2435.35

2609.55

2856.22

2441.10

2490.55

2865.47

2358.00

2554.85

2878.41

2120.00

2358.05

2887.33

2361.00

2544.20

2903.45

2780.00

2799.50

2914.46

2976.00

2996.25

2917.90

3032.60

3098.35

2913.49

3135.25

3162.00

2907.95

3125.00

3216.30

2897.58

3000.00

3128.15

2884.31

3015.25

3027.05

2872.92

9-Jan-08

3012.00

3031.95

2866.75

8-Jan-08

3001.00

3050.50

2861.78

7-Jan-08

2951.00

3015.60

2853.81

4-Jan-08

2902.00

2985.85

2844.25

3-Jan-08

2831.10

2902.90

2835.46

2-Jan-08

2818.10

2861.80

2831.59

1-Jan-08
31-Dec07
28-Dec07
27-Dec07
26-Dec07
24-Dec07
20-Dec07
19-Dec-

2834.40

2847.10

2831.28

2875.10

2881.05

2832.23

2865.10

2898.35

2831.92

2871.10

2894.35

2831.56

2772.55

2896.70

2824.94

2714.00

2788.05

2817.62

2695.05
2654.00

2714.70
2704.75

2815.87
2816.81

18242.5
8
17648.7
1
17758.6
4
18091.9
4
18152.7
8
18361.6
6
17221.7
4
17594.0
7
16729.9
4
17605.3
5
19013.7
0
19700.8
2
19868.1
1
20251.0
9
20728.0
5
20827.4
5
20582.0
8
20869.7
8
20873.3
3
20812.6
5
20686.8
9
20345.2
0
20465.3
0
20300.7
1
20286.9
9
20206.9
5
20216.7
2
20192.5
2
19854.1
2
19162.5
7
19091.9

0.02

Profit

0.03

Rise

0.00

Profit

-0.01

Fall

-0.04

Loss

-0.02

Fall

0.00

Profit

0.00

Fall

-0.02

Loss

-0.01

Fall

0.05

Profit

0.07

Rise

-0.03

Loss

-0.02

Fall

0.08

Profit

0.05

Rise

-0.08

Loss

-0.05

Fall

-0.10

Loss

-0.07

Fall

-0.07

Loss

-0.03

Fall

-0.03

Loss

-0.01

Fall

-0.02

Loss

-0.02

Fall

-0.02

Loss

-0.02

Fall

0.03

Profit

0.00

Fall

0.03

Profit

0.01

Rise

0.00

Loss

-0.01

Fall

-0.01

Loss

0.00

Fall

0.01

Profit

0.00

Rise

0.01

Profit

0.01

Rise

0.03

Profit

0.02

Rise

0.01

Profit

-0.01

Fall

0.01

Profit

0.01

Rise

-0.01

Loss

0.00

Rise

-0.01

Loss

0.00

Rise

0.00

Profit

0.00

Fall

0.00

Loss

0.00

Rise

0.04

Profit

0.02

Rise

0.03

Profit

0.04

Rise

0.00
-0.01

Profit
Loss

0.00
0.00

Rise
Rise

Mrigank Sanghvi | Statistics Project | 18

07
18-Dec07
17-Dec07
14-Dec07
13-Dec07
12-Dec07
11-Dec07
10-Dec07
7-Dec07
6-Dec07
5-Dec07
4-Dec07
3-Dec07
30-Nov07
29-Nov07
28-Nov07
27-Nov07
26-Nov07
23-Nov07
22-Nov07
21-Nov07
20-Nov07
19-Nov07
16-Nov07
15-Nov07
14-Nov07
13-Nov07
12-Nov07
9-Nov07
8-Nov07
7-Nov07

2702.25

2728.85

2818.74

2763.20

2777.50

2816.29

2815.30

2889.05

2812.50

2815.55

2832.75

2806.62

2845.55

2886.90

2801.25

2822.00

2878.75

2797.77

2808.00

2822.50

2794.16

2806.00

2841.65

2794.33

2866.00

2874.55

2789.35

2863.00

2902.80

2781.13

2847.00

2863.85

2771.36

2850.00

2932.20

2762.61

2814.25

2850.75

2745.30

2795.05

2818.40

2732.58

2770.30

2786.30

2724.50

2822.00

2842.00

2721.30

2825.00

2882.85

2714.84

2721.00

2811.45

2707.55

2666.80

2728.80

2699.40

2700.00

2722.00

2696.09

2760.00

2786.85

2692.60

2841.10

2852.50

2686.39

2806.90

2875.70

2671.87

2850.05

2871.70

2658.81

2695.00

2887.50

2643.84

2651.55

2695.85

2627.38

2606.00

2676.95

2613.83

2686.10

2735.70

2601.13

2692.20

2742.75

2587.28

2632.00

2762.65

2573.26

6
19079.6
4
19261.3
5
20030.8
3
20104.3
9
20375.8
7
20290.8
9
19930.6
8
19966.0
0
19795.8
7
19738.0
7
19529.5
0
19603.4
1
19363.1
9
19003.2
6
18938.8
7
19127.7
3
19247.5
4
18852.8
7
18526.3
2
18602.6
2
19280.8
0
19633.3
6
19698.3
6
19784.8
9
19929.0
6
19035.4
8
18737.2
7
18907.6
0
19058.9
3
19289.8
3

-0.02

Loss

-0.01

Fall

-0.04

Loss

-0.04

Fall

0.02

Profit

0.00

Fall

-0.02

Loss

-0.01

Fall

0.00

Profit

0.00

Rise

0.02

Profit

0.02

Rise

-0.01

Loss

0.00

Fall

-0.01

Loss

0.01

Rise

-0.01

Loss

0.00

Rise

0.01

Profit

0.01

Rise

-0.02

Loss

0.00

Fall

0.03

Profit

0.01

Rise

0.01

Profit

0.02

Rise

0.01

Profit

0.00

Rise

-0.02

Loss

-0.01

Fall

-0.01

Loss

-0.01

Fall

0.02

Profit

0.02

Rise

0.03

Profit

0.02

Rise

0.00

Profit

0.00

Fall

-0.02

Loss

-0.04

Fall

-0.02

Loss

-0.02

Fall

-0.01

Loss

0.00

Fall

0.00

Profit

0.00

Fall

-0.01

Loss

-0.01

Fall

0.07

Profit

0.05

Rise

0.01

Profit

0.02

Rise

-0.02

Loss

-0.01

Fall

0.00

Loss

-0.01

Fall

-0.01

Loss

-0.01

Fall

0.04

Profit

-0.01

Fall

Mrigank Sanghvi | Statistics Project | 19

6-Nov07
5-Nov07
2-Nov07
1-Nov07
31-Oct07
30-Oct07
29-Oct07
26-Oct07
25-Oct07
24-Oct07
23-Oct07
22-Oct07
19-Oct07
18-Oct07
17-Oct07
16-Oct07
15-Oct07
12-Oct07
11-Oct07
10-Oct07

2640.15

2655.50

2561.16

2635.00

2663.65

2551.20

2605.00

2712.70

2538.22

2640.35

2671.60

2520.87

2747.25

2782.55

2504.24

2746.00

2770.50

2480.11

2692.00

2827.65

2455.37

2610.00

2692.25

2428.93

2594.00

2628.05

2406.74

2552.50

2609.50

2386.24

2412.00

2601.55

2365.46

2384.40

2412.75

2344.99

2413.05

2469.20

2329.94

2525.00

2575.90

2253.18

2278.60

2690.30

2617.10

2648.30

2566.00

2664.15

2542.00

2566.85

2585.25

2629.65

2600.00

2617.35

9-Oct-07

2367.00

2600.45

8-Oct-07

2384.60

2416.95

5-Oct-07

2422.00

2483.90

4-Oct-07

2361.00

2422.55

3-Oct-07

2278.60

2393.55

1-Oct-07
28-Sep07
27-Sep07
26-Sep07
25-Sep07
24-Sep-

2264.25

2289.35

2268.00

2296.20

2308.60

2320.20

2312.00

2321.95

2333.35
2288.00

2399.60
2356.70

19400.6
7
19590.7
8
19976.2
3
19724.3
5
19837.9
9
19783.5
1
19977.6
7
19243.1
7
18770.8
9
18512.9
1
18492.8
4
17613.9
9
17559.9
8
17998.3
9
18715.8
2
19051.8
6
19058.6
7
18419.0
4
18814.0
7
18658.2
5
18280.2
4
17491.3
9
17773.3
6
17777.1
4
17847.0
4
17328.6
2
17291.1
0
17150.5
6
16921.3
9
16899.5
4
16845.8

0.00

Loss

-0.01

Fall

-0.02

Loss

-0.02

Fall

0.02

Profit

0.01

Rise

-0.04

Loss

-0.01

Fall

0.00

Profit

0.00

Rise

-0.02

Loss

-0.01

Fall

0.05

Profit

0.04

Rise

0.02

Profit

0.03

Rise

0.01

Profit

0.01

Rise

0.00

Profit

0.00

Rise

0.07

Profit

0.05

Rise

-0.02

Loss

0.00

Rise

-0.04

Loss

-0.02

Fall

-0.04

Loss

-0.04

Fall

0.02

Profit

-0.02

Fall

-0.01

Loss

0.00

Fall

0.04

Profit

0.03

Rise

-0.02

Loss

-0.02

Fall

0.00

Profit

0.01

Rise

0.01

Profit

0.02

Rise

0.07

Profit

0.05

Rise

-0.03

Loss

-0.02

Fall

0.02

Profit

0.00

Fall

0.01

Profit

0.00

Fall

0.04

Profit

0.03

Rise

0.00

Loss

0.00

Rise

-0.01

Loss

0.01

Rise

0.00

Loss

0.01

Rise

-0.03

Loss

0.00

Rise

0.02
0.03

Profit
Profit

0.00
0.02

Rise
Rise

Mrigank Sanghvi | Statistics Project | 20

07
21-Sep07
20-Sep07
19-Sep07
18-Sep07
17-Sep07
14-Sep07
13-Sep07
12-Sep07
11-Sep07
10-Sep07
7-Sep07
6-Sep07

2151.10

2274.40

2160.05

2192.10

2075.00

2172.90

2007.00

2058.40

2021.10

2028.45

2026.00

2034.50

2005.20

2026.50

1986.00

2012.95

1980.15

1986.30

1945.00

1987.20

1954.00

1961.40

1983.30

1949.90

3
16564.2
3
16347.9
5
16322.7
5
15669.1
2
15504.4
3
15603.8
0
15614.4
4
15505.3
6
15542.7
7
15596.8
3
15590.4
2
15616.3
1

0.04

Profit

0.01

Rise

0.01

Profit

0.00

Rise

0.05

Profit

0.04

Rise

0.01

Profit

0.01

Rise

0.00

Loss

-0.01

Fall

0.00

Profit

0.00

Fall

0.01

Profit

0.01

Rise

0.01

Profit

0.00

Fall

0.00

Loss

0.00

Fall

0.01

Profit

0.00

Rise

-0.01

Loss

0.00

Fall

Mrigank Sanghvi | Statistics Project | 21

ANALYSIS OF THE DATA

FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION ANALYSIS
Stock Prices

Freque Cumulat
ncy
ive

Mid
Point

F*
MP
50387.5
0
64695.0
0
119470.
00
68278.0
0
121236.
50
81615.0
0
77260.5
0
21017.5
0
12574.0
0
616534
.00

1945-2086

25

25

2015.5

2086-2227

30

55

2156.5

2227-2368

52

107

2297.5

2368-2509

28

135

2438.5

2509-2650

47

182

2579.5

2650-2791

30

212

2720.5

2791-2932

27

239

2861.5

2932-3073

246

3002.5

3073-3214

250

3141.5

Total

250

ARITHMETIC MEAN
A.M. =

Total of Stock Prices =

Total no. of Stocks

616534 = Rs. 2466.136

250

Similarly, for BSE SENSEX

Mrigank Sanghvi | Statistics Project | 22

A.M. = 16929.61

MEDIAN
Median = L + N/2 - C.f. x i
F
Here, Median Class is 2368 2509
Thus,
L = 2368,

C.f. = 107, F = 28,

i = 141

Median = 2368 + (250/2) - 107 x 141

28
= Rs. 2458.64

MODE
Mode = L + F0 F1

xi

2F0 F1 F2
Here, Modal Class = 2227 - 2368
L = 2227,

F0 = 52,

Mode = 2227 +

F1 = 30,
52 30

F2 = 28,

i = 141

x 141

2x52 30 28
= Rs. 2294.43

QUARTILES
Q j = L + jN/4 C.f. x i
F
Now,
For Q1 , L = 2227, C.f. = 55,

F = 52,

i = 141

Q1 = 2227 + 250/4 - 55 x 141

Mrigank Sanghvi | Statistics Project | 23

52
= Rs. 2247.33
Similarly for Q2 ,
L = 2368,

C.f. = 107, F = 28,

i = 141

Q2 = 2368 + 2(250/4) - 107 x 141

28
= Rs. 2458.64

Similarly for Q3,

L = 2650,

C.f. = 182, F = 30,

i = 141

Q3 = 2650 + 3(250/4) - 182 x 141

30
= Rs. 2675.84

RANGE
Range = L S
Here,
L = 3213.3,

S = 1945.35

Range = 3213.3 1945.35

= Rs. 1267.95

Mrigank Sanghvi | Statistics Project | 24

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Stock
Prices

Freque
ncy

Mid Point d = (x (x) 2579.5)/141

1945-2086
2086-2227

25
30

2015.5
2156.5

-4
-3

2227-2368
2368-2509
2509-2650
2650-2791
2791-2932
2932-3073
3073-3214

52
28
47
30
27
7
4

2297.5
2438.5
2579.5
2720.5
2861.5
3002.5
3143.5

-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4

Total

250

fd
fd2
10
0
400
-90 270
10
4
208
-28
28
0
0
30
30
54
108
21
63
16
64
20
1 1171

STANDARD DEVIATION
S. D. =

fd2 - (fd) 2

x i

(N) 2

Here,
Mrigank Sanghvi | Statistics Project | 25

fd = -201, fd2 = 1171, N = 250,

1171 - (-201) 2

S.D. =

i = 141
x 141

(250) 2

250
S.D. = Rs. 283.32
Similarly,
For BSE SENSEX
S.D. = 2071.37

VARIANCE
Variance = (S.D.) 2
= (283.32) 2
= 80270.22

COEFFICIENT OF VARIATION
C.V.

= S.D. x 100
A.M.

C.V.

= 283.23

x 100

2466.136
= 11.48 %
Similarly,
For BSE SENSEX
C.V.

= 12.24 %

Mrigank Sanghvi | Statistics Project | 26

SKEWNESS
SKp = 3(Mean Median)
S.D.
= 3(2466.136 2458.64)
283.23
= 0.079

Similarly,
For BSE SENSEX
SKp = - 0.04

CORRELATION ANALYSIS
r=

N d X dy
NdX2 (dX)2

d X * dy

Ndy2 (dy)2

Thus,
r = 0.93

REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS
Here, x refers to RIL
y refers to BSE SENSEX
bxy = r x x
y
= 0.93 x 283.32
2071.37
= 0.127
Mrigank Sanghvi | Statistics Project | 27

byx = r x y
x
= 0.93 x 2071.37
283.32
= 6.799

REGRESSION EQUATIONS
X on Y

(x x ) = bxy (y y )
(x 2466.13) = 0.127 (y 16929.61)
x = 0.127y + 316.07
Y on X

(y y )= byx (x x )
(y 16929.61) = 6.799 (x -2466.136)
Y = 6.799x + 162.36

Mrigank Sanghvi | Statistics Project | 28

INTERPRETATION

Arithmetic Mean (Rs. 2466.136) indicates the average closing price

and gives us the single value that represents the entire data.

Median (Rs. 2458.64) indicates that 50% values lie below Rs. 2458.64
and the rest 50% lie above it. Since, the Median & Arithmetic Mean are
almost the same, it can be concluded that that data is almost
symmetrically distributed.

Mode (Rs. 2294.43) indicates that in the past one year the stock price
of RIL has been mostly close to 2294.53. Hence, one could expect the
RIL price to stabilize at Modal Value in the future.

The Lower Quartile (Rs. 2247.33) indicates 25% observations lie below
it and 75%above it. The Upper Quartile (Rs. 2675.84) indicates 75%
observations lie below it and 25% above it.

The Standard Deviation (Rs. 283.32) which is relatively high indicates

that there was a greater magnitude of the deviations from the
Arithmetic Mean. As also, maximum observations lie between the
range, Rs. 2175.32 Rs. 2741.96

Skewness (0.079) indicates that the data is more or less symmetrical or

evenly distributed. The positive skew indicates that the tail on the right
side is marginally longer, and only a few extra values lie to the left side
of the mean.

Coefficient of Correlation has been used to analyze the relation

between RILs Stock Price & BSE SENSEX movement. Since, r = 0.93,
there is a high degree of positive correlation between the two
variables, i.e., as the value of RIL Stock goes up, the BSE SENSEX also
moves up.
Mrigank Sanghvi | Statistics Project | 29

Coefficient of Variation has been used to find which of the two

variables is less volatile or more consistent. Since, in the past one year
RIL was having lower coefficient of variation (11.48) than BSE SENSEX
(12.24), hence stock price of RIL can be considered less volatile than
SENSEX.

Regression coefficients (bxy= 0.127 & byx= 6.799) help us measure the
amount of change in RIL Stock Price & BSE SENSEX and vice versa ,
respectively.

Regression Equations of X on Y (x = 0.127y + 316.07) & Y on X (Y =

6.799x + 162.36) help to estimate the value of RIL Stock Price, when
BSE SENSEX is given and vice versa, respectively.

The Probability of Profit on Daily Returns (0.51) states that, out of 100
times a person invests in RIL Stock for a day, 51 times he will make
profit on the investment, and a loss on the other 49 occasions.

The Probability of SENSEX Rising (0.49) indicates that, out of 100 days
the SENSEX operates, it rises on 49 occasions and falls on other
occasions, i.e., 59.

Mrigank Sanghvi | Statistics Project | 30

CONCLUSION
For a period of these 12 months, 30 day moving average is taken as measure
of moving average to get an idea of movement of share price of RIL.
During the initial months RIL was trading above the 30 DMA, hence was
expected to come down. Hence during the month of Feb08, the RIL moved
below its 30 DMA, but later on outperformed its 30 DMA during recovery
period in Apr08. But since then, the market has been consistently falling,
showing signs of weakening. Only for a short period in August the RIL
performed above its 30 DMA, but again RIL is currently trading below its 30
DMA. Hence, looking at the past trend and the market condition, the RIL is
not likely to outperform its 30 DMA. Thus, it has fuelled fears of recession
hitting the Indian Markets.
The recommendation for the investors would be to hold the stock as the
stock has been above its 30 DMA for more than once since Jan08 when
markets have entered bearish phase. Hence, stock represents ability to
outperform the market in coming future only if it doesnt become a victim of
short selling.

Mrigank Sanghvi | Statistics Project | 31

Mrigank Sanghvi | Statistics Project | 32

BIBLIOGRAPHY

www.forbes.com

www.ibtimes.com

www.wikipedia.com

www.toi.com

www.ril.com

Manan Shahs various articles for different publication like Mint,

Financial Express and Indian Express

Mrigank Sanghvi | Statistics Project | 33