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a paucity of data from multivariate analyses on the interactions between the postoperative risk factors and preoperative or intraoperative factors that may predict graft
survival.3,9
The Singapore Corneal Transplant Study is an ongoing,
prospective cohort study of all corneal transplantations
performed at a tertiary care center in Singapore, and we
recently reported on the indications, long-term survival
rates, and preoperative and intraoperative risk factors for
penetrating keratoplasty (PK) graft survival in the Singapore Corneal Transplant Study.4 The aims of this study
were to determine possible postoperative complications
and operative procedures that also may affect long-term
graft survival and to assess their interactions with other
previously reported risk factors for graft survival, so as to
enable appropriate postoperative management or preventive strategies to be implemented in transplant patients to
reduce graft failure rates.
METHODS
THE SINGAPORE CORNEAL TRANSPLANT STUDY IS AN ON-
RIGHTS RESERVED.
0002-9394/$36.00
doi:10.1016/j.ajo.2010.09.002
The general postoperative therapeutic regimen for the grafts involved commencement of topical prednisolone acetate 1%
or dexamethasone phosphate 0.1% at 3-hour intervals
along with either topical tobramycin, levofloxacin, or
moxifloxacin. Topical cyclosporine generally was used as
additional immunosuppression in high-risk cases (multiple
grafts, therapeutic grafts where steroids were withheld for
the first few weeks, eyes with significant vascularization,
glaucoma, ocular surface disease), or as a steroid-sparing
agent in cases of ocular hypertension. Topical steroids were
tapered gradually to once daily by the end of 1 year, with
antibiotic use in tandem stopped when steroid dosage was
reduced to a twice-daily regimen (antibiotics were continued beyond 6 months in view of a greater risk of the
occurrence of infective keratitis in our graft patients when
they were concurrently receiving topical steroids). In
low-risk grafts (eg, grafts performed for keratoconus, corneal scars, anterior stromal dystrophies), topical steroids
were continued for at least 1 year, whereas in immunologically high-risk grafts, low-dose steroids were continued
indefinitely without antibiotics. In cases of tectonic and
therapeutic grafts, topical steroids generally were withheld
for at least 1 week after surgery with the aim of reducing
the risk of exacerbating a recurrence of infection.
Oral steroids were commenced in the perioperative
period in immunologically high-risk grafts (vascularized
corneas, repeat grafts) in those patients who consented and
were fit for oral steroids and were tapered over 2 to 3 weeks
in the postoperative period. In selected high-risk cases
(based on individual surgeon preference, patient acceptance of therapy, as well as patient systemic fitness) and
with appropriate risk-to-benefit ratio assessment and counseling, oral cyclosporine (2 to 4 mg/kg daily) was commenced after surgery and maintained empirically for 12
months unless systemic toxicities developed in the patient.
Systemic mycophenolate mofetil was used in patients with
contraindication to systemic cyclosporine or in patients in
whom side effects from cyclosporine developed. Patients
with clinical evidence of rejection were managed aggressively with a combination of oral prednisolone (1 mg/kg
body weight) and topical prednisolone acetate 1% given at
1- to 2-hour intervals, with rapid tapering after resolution
of rejection.
Complication
Glaucoma/raised intraocular
pressure
Allograft rejection
Epithelial problems
Late graft failure
Microbial keratitis
Cataract formation
Wound dehiscence
Vitreoretinal (retinal detachment,
macular pathologic features,
diabetic retinopathy)
Posterior capsular opacity
Primary graft failure
Suture abscess
Activation of herpes simplex
infection
Endophthalmitis
Recurrence of primary disease
Others
Surgical procedure
Glaucoma surgery
Repeat corneal graft
Graft resuturing
Refractive surgery
Cataract surgery
Lid procedures
YAG capsulotomy
Others: retinal laser (n 9),
vitreoretinal surgery (n 8),
ocular surface procedures
(n 10)
Frequency (n)
Percent
(%)
187
20.7
164
141
85
48
32
27
26
18.2
15.6
9.4
5.3
3.5
3.0
2.9
24
13
12
10
2.3
1.4
1.3
1.1
6
5
5
0.7
0.5
0.5
71
66
51
36
34
25
16
27
7.7
7.3
5.7
4.0
3.8
2.8
1.8
3.0
A total of 17 potential
postoperative risk factors were identified. These included 9
postoperative graft complications (epithelial problems,
wound dehiscence, suture abscess, endophthalmitis, microbial keratitis, reactivation of herpes simplex infection,
recurrence of primary disease, glaucoma or raised intraocular pressure [IOP], and allograft rejection) and 8 postoperative surgical or laser procedures (glaucoma surgery or
RISK FACTORS
FOR
Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was conducted to analyze graft survival times for
postoperative factors. Postoperative follow-up factors were
categorized, highlighting reference categories for comparisons. The Kaplan-Meier product limit method was applied
to generate individual survival curves with corresponding
survival rates. To avoid time-dependent bias, Cox proportional hazards regression with time-dependent covariates
was used to analyze follow-up risk factors (eg, complica-
443
RESULTS
DATA ON BASELINE DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS,
follow-up duration, indications for surgery and preoperative diagnoses, and preoperative and intraoperative risk
factors have been described in an earlier publication from
the Singapore Corneal Transplant Study.4 The incidence
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DISCUSSION
CORNEAL GRAFT SURVIVAL IN THE LONG TERM HAS BEEN
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445
TABLE 3. Multivariate Cox Regression Analysis of Preoperative, Intraoperative, and Postoperative Risk Factors Predictive of
Corneal Graft Failure in the Singapore Corneal Transplant Study
95% Confidence Interval for
Hazard Ratio
Risk Factor
P Value
Hazard Ratio
.00
.94
.00
.00
.68
.42
.09
.11
.00
.01
.00
.00
.02
.01
.00
.01
.01
.00
.34
.00
.49
.00
.00
.02
.00
.64
.02
.02
0.02
.02
Lower
Upper
1.64
1.00
1.18
.83
2.29
1.22
5.15
1.10
1.22
.41
1.60
2.01
.69
.75
.15
.90
13.23
1.76
1.99
1.15
2.87
1
14.83
22.95
18.76
12.01
13.91
29.73
17.52
17.05
3.64
.47
6.74
.82
.15
3.45
2.83
3.22
1.19
2.46
.23
0.29
2.31
1.85
3.03
2.39
1.56
1.78
3.97
2.08
2.27
2.19
.10
2.43
.47
.035
2.42
1.19
1.87
.57
1.12
.07
0.00
1.162
118.61
174.14
146.81
92.79
109.09
222.79
147.76
127.87
6.06
2.23
18.70
1.44
.62
4.92
6.71
5.53
2.45
5.40
.77
0.83
4.61
ABK aphakic bullous keratopathy; Nd:YAG neodymium:yttriumaluminum garnet; PBK pseudophakic bullous keratopathy.
The significant postoperative risk factors for graft survival in our study were microbial keratitis and endophthalmitis, allograft rejection, recurrence of primary disease,
repeat corneal graft, glaucoma surgery, and lid surgery.
Allograft rejection was noted in 164 eyes (18.2%), and 1
episode or more of graft rejection was associated with a
significantly poorer outcome in terms of graft survival in
our series (P .001). This is in keeping with previous
reports in the literature in which 1 rejection episode or
more led to graft failure in 30% to 50% eyes.3,18,19 In an
analysis of the preoperative factors influencing graft survival after an episode of endothelial rejection, Wagoner
and associates found that a history of rejection as well as
increased donor and recipient age were associated with a
higher risk of subsequent failure.6
Microbial keratitis after PK is a serious complication
that leads to significant ocular morbidity. The reported
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THE AUTHORS INDICATE NO FINANCIAL SUPPORT OR FINANCIAL CONFLICT OF INTEREST. INVOLVED IN DESIGN OF THE
study (D.T.H.T., A.A.); Conduct of the study (A.A., L.S.L., D.T.H.T.); Data collection (A.A., H.M.H.); Analysis and data interpretation (A.A., L.S.L.,
D.T.H.T., H.M.H.); Preparation and writing of the manuscript (A.A., L.S.L., D.T.H.T.); and Review and approval of the manuscript (A.A., D.T.H.T.).
The Institutional Review Board of the Singapore Eye Research Institute approved the study.
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Study. Ophthalmology 2008;115(6):975982.
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10. van Walraven C, Davis D, Forster AJ, Wells GA. Timedependent bias was common in survival analyses published in
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20. Al Hazzaa SA, Tabbara KF. Bacterial keratitis after penetrating keratoplasty. Ophthalmology 1988;95(11):1504 1508.
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Biosketch
Professor Donald T.H Tan is the Director of Singapore National Eye Centre (SNEC), Chairman of Singapore Eye
Research Centre (SERI) and Heads the SNEC Cornea and Refractive Services. His extensive clinical and research
interests include myopia control, lamellar keratoplasty, including deep anterior lamellar keratoplasty and endothelial
keratoplasty, femtosecond laser-assisted corneal surgery, osteo-odonto-keratoprostheisis, ocular surface transplantation
including bioengineered stem-cell equivalents and drug-delivery devices. He has published extensively and is one of the
leading figures in the field of pterygium surgery and limbal/ocular surface transplantation.
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