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The Center for Climate and Energy Solutions (C2ES) is an independent nonprofit organization working to promote practical, effective policies and actions to address the twin challenges of energy and climate change. Launched in 2011, C2ES
is the successor to the Pew Center on Global Climate Change. This report was originally published by the Pew Center
on Global Climate Change. For more information, please visit WWW.C2ES.ORG
When citing this publication, please list the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions as the author.
January 2011
Figure 1
15
10
18801920 baseline
for surface temperature
almost 1.5F (see Figure 1), and the Arctic warmed about
10
00
20
20
80
90
19
70
19
19
60
19
40
50
00
10
19
90
80
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18
18
19551975 baseline
for ocean heat content
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19
20
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
30
19
19
twice as much.2
Global average surface temperature change (left axis) and ocean heat content change in upper 2300 feet (right axis).
SOURCES
years from 1980 to 2009; the warmest year was 2005 followed closely by 1998.3
Over the past 50 years, the data on extreme temperatures have
shown similar trends of rising temperatures: cold days, cold
Ocean heat: Levitus, S., J.I. Antonov, T.P. Boyer, R.A. Locarnini, H.E. Garcia,
and A.V. Mishonov, 2009: Global Ocean Heat Content 1955-2008 in light
of recently revealed instrumentation problems. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36,
L07608, doi:10.1029/2008GL037155.
This brief is part of a series called Climate Change 101: Understanding and Responding to Global Climate Change, published by the Pew
Center on Global Climate Change.
nights, and frosts occurred less frequently over time, while hot
CO2, methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) are GHGs that
oceans have absorbed most of the heat that has been added to
peratures (see Figure 1). Over time, the heat already absorbed
Figure 2
The Greenhouse Effect
NATURAL GREENHOUSE EFFECT
Illustration of the greenhouse effect (adapted with permission from the Marian Koshland Science Museum of The National Academy of Sciences). Visible
sunlight passes through the atmosphere without being absorbed. Some of the sunlight striking the earth 1 is absorbed and converted to heat, which
warms the surface. The surface 2 emits heat to the atmosphere, where some of it 3 is absorbed by greenhouse gases and 4 re-emitted toward the
surface; some of the heat is not trapped by greenhouse gases and 5 escapes into space. Human activities that emit additional greenhouse gases to
the atmosphere 6 increase the amount of heat that gets absorbed before escaping to space, thus enhancing the greenhouse effect and amplifying the
warming of the earth.
N2O by 18 percent.
the burning of coal, oil, and natural gas account for about
remaining 20 percent comes from changes in the land surface, primarily deforestation. Trees, like all living organisms,
Figure 3
3
Figure
Global Temperatures:
Temperatures The
Global
The Last
Last 800,000
800,000 Years
Years
Approximate average global surface temperature
70
68
Temperature (F)
66
370
350
330
64
310
62
290
60
270
58
250
56
230
54
52
50
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
210
warming since the start of the 20th century, and especially the
190
170
800
72
GHGs is the main reason that the Earth has been warming in
390
Global average surface temperature (left axis) and atmospheric CO2 concentration (right axis) over the past 800,000 years as determined from
Antarctic ice cores and direct atmospheric CO2 measurements.
SOURCES
Surface temperature: J. Jouzel, V. Masson-Delmotte, O. Cattani, G. Dreyfus,
S. Falourd, G. Hoffmann, B. Minster, J. Nouet, J.M. Barnola, J. Chappellaz, H.
Fischer, J.C. Gallet, S. Johnsen, M. Leuenberger, L. Loulergue, D. Luethi, H.
Oerter, F. Parrenin, G. Raisbeck, D. Raynaud, A. Schilt, J. Schwander, E. Selmo,
R. Souchez, R. Spahni, B. Stauffer, J.P. Steffensen, B. Stenni, T.F. Stocker,
J.L. Tison, M. Werner, and E.W. Wolff. 2007. Orbital and Millennial Antarctic
Climate Variability over the Past 800,000 Years. Science 317:793-797
At Issue:
Measuring Atmosphere vs. Surface
Temperatures
For many years, skeptics of climate change pointed
to differences between temperature increases recorded
at the earths surface and those recorded in the lower
much more GHGs are emitted and how strongly the climate
Land areas warm more rapidly than oceans, and higher latitudes warm more quickly than lower latitudes. Therefore,
regional temperature increases may be greater or less than
global averages, depending on location. For example, the
United States is projected to experience more warming
than average, and the Arctic is expected to experience the
mostwarming.15
The future climate depends largely on the actions taken
in the next few decades to reduce and eventually eliminate human-induced CO2 emissions. In 2005, the U.S.
National Academy of Sciences joined with 10 other science
academies from around the world in a statement calling on
world leaders to take prompt action on climate change.
of climate change. To understand why, it is important to distinguish between weather and climate. The climate is the
average weather over a long period of time. A simple way to think
of this is: weather is what determines if you will use an umbrella
today; climate determines whether you own an umbrella. Thus,
when looking at climate change and its impacts, it is important
to consider more than just global temperature trends. Changes
in the climate other than average temperatures have more direct
impacts on nature and society.
The USGCRP report says, Climate changes are underway in the United States and are projected to grow, and
Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and
are expected to increase. Sea level rise, the loss of sea ice,
changes in weather patterns, more drought and heavy rainfall, and changes in river flows are among the documented
At Issue:
Twentieth-Century Temperature Trends
Scientists have noted a distinct pattern of warming
during the twentieth century, with a large warming
between 1910 and 1940, moderate cooling from 1940
to 1975, and a large warming again from 1975 to the
of aerosols diminishes.16
the types of events discussed here are the types of events that
climate. Therefore, the events that actually occur are useful indi-
tion that falls as rain instead of snow, and by altering the timing
of snowmelt. In the near term, the melting of mountain ice and
snow may cause flooding; in the long term, the loss of these
frozen water reserves will significantly reduce the water available
for humans, agriculture, and energy production. Earlier snowmelt brings other impacts. Western states have experienced a
six-fold increase in the amount of land burned by wildfires over
Figure 4
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have identified a number of health effects associated with climate change,
caused some species to get out of sync with their food sources.
24
Increased
and quality of food and water. The USGCRP report says that
children, the elderly, and the poor are at the greatest risk of
The importance of sea ice decline comes from the role it plays
in both the climate system and large Arctic ecosystems. Snow
and ice reflect sunlight very effectively, while open water tends
to absorb it. As sea ice melts, the earths surface will reflect
less light and absorb more. Consequently, the disappearance
of Arctic ice will actually intensify climate change.32
Moreover, as the edge of the sea ice retreats farther from
land during the summer, many marine animals that depend
on the sea ice, including seals, polar bears, and fish, will
lose access to their feeding grounds for longer periods.
Eventually, this shift will deprive these organisms of their
food sources and their populations will not be sustained.
Scientists who study the ice sheet fear that the loss of ice
Figure 5
Glacial Retreat in Glacier National Park
1938
1981
1998
2009
Oblique view of Grinnell Glacier taken from the summit of Mount Gould, Glacier National Park.
ENDNOTES
34 Elsner, J.B., J.P. Kossin and T.H. Jagger (2008) The increasing
intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones. Nature 455:92-95.
34 Pfeffer, W.T., J.T. Harper, and S.O. Neel. Kinematic Constraints
on Glacier Contributions to 21st Century Sea-level Rise. Science
321 (2008): 1340-1343; Vermeer, M. and S. Rahmstorf. Global
sea level linked to global temperature. Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences, USA (2009) 106:21527-21532.
35 IPCC. Summary for Policymakers. In Climate Change 2007:
The Physical Science Basis.
36 Nicholls, R.J., et al. Coastal Systems and Low-lying Areas. In
Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.
Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
edited by M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der
Linden and C.E. Hanson. Cambridge, UK and New York, NY:
University of Cambridge, 2007.