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dotcom bubble, for example, the stock price of dozens of internet companies
rose without ever making even the smallest profit. As we all know, these high
stock prices did not hold, and most internet companies saw their values shrink to
a fraction of their highs. Still, this fact demonstrates that there are factors other
.than current earnings that influence stocks
So, what are "all the factors" that affect the stocks price? The best answer is that
nobody really knows for sure. Some believe that it isn't possible to predict how
stock prices will change, while others think that by drawing charts and looking
at past price movements, you can determine when to buy and sell. The only thing
.we do know is that stocks are volatile and can change in price very very rapidly
Just remember this: At the most fundamental level, supply and demand in the
.market determines stock price
There are many types of techniques and methods that investors use to figure out
whether a stock price will go up or down! We will try to give you an introduction
.to these techniques in this article
But before we go into the concepts of stocks picking, and the techiques of
....analysis, let us understand one last basic thing
There is an index for the automobile stocks etc. If you are interested in knowing
how the SENSEX is actually calculated...you must check-out our "How to
!calculate BSE SENSEX?" article
cap or large-cap or small-cap company! Now the question is, how do YOU
calculate the market cap of a particular company? You dont! Just go to a
website like MoneyControl.com and look up the company whose market cap you
are interested in finding out! The figure in front of Mkt. Cap will be the
.market cap value
Having seen what market cap is and how to find out the market cap of a
particular company, let us try to understand the concept of free-float market
cap
Third: Make all this relative to the Sensex base. The value you get is the Sensex
!value
The third step probably confused you. To understand it, you will need to
understand ratios and proportions from 5th standard mathematics. Think of it
:this way
Suppose, for a free-float market cap of Rs.100,000 Cr... the Sensex value is
4000
..Then, for a free-float market cap of Rs.150,000 Cr... the Sensex value will be
So, the Sensex value will be 6000 if the free-float market cap comes to
!Rs.150,000 Cr
Please Note: Every time one of the 30 companies has a stock split or a "bonus"
.etc. appropriate changes are made in the market cap calculations
Now, there is only one question left to be answered, which 30 companies, why
?those 30 companies, why no other companies
The 30 companies that make up the Sensex are selected and reviewed from time
to time by an index committee. This index committee is made up of
academicians, mutual fund managers, finance journalists, independent
.governing board members and other participants in the financial markets
:The main criteria for selecting the 30 stocks is as follows
Market capitalization: The company should have a market capitalization in the
Top 100 market capitalizations of the BSE. Also the market capitalization of
each company should be more than 0.5% of the total market capitalization of the
.Index
Trading frequency: The company to be included should have been traded on
each and every trading day for the last one year. Exceptions can be made for
.extreme reasons like share suspension etc
Number of trades: The scrip should be among the top 150 companies listed by
.average number of trades per day for the last one year
Industry representation: The companies should be leaders in their industry
.group
Listed history: The companies should have a listing history of at least one year
.on BSE
Track record: In the opinion of the index committee, the company should have
.an acceptable track record
.Having understood all this, you now know how the Sensex is calculated
Having understood all the basics of the stock market and the risk involved, now
we will go into stock picking and how to pick the right stock. Before picking the
.right stock you need to do some analysis
:There are two major types of analysis
Fundamental Analysis .1
Technical Analysis .2
Fundamental analysis is the analysis of a stock on the basis of core financial and
.economic analysis to predict the movement of stocks price
On the other hand, technical analysis is the study of prices and volume, for
.forecasting of future stock price or financial price movements
Simply put, fundamental analysis looks at the actual company and tries to figure
out what the company price is going to be like in the future. On the other hand
technical analysis look at the stocks chart, peoples buying behavior etc. to try
.and figure out what the stock price is going to be like in the future
In this article we will go into the basics of fundamental analysis. Technical
analysis is a little more complicated. It is much more of an "art" than a science.
It depends more on experience and involves some statistics and mathematics, so
.explaining technical analysis is out of the scope of this article
To start finding out the intrinsic value, the fundamentalist analyzer makes an
.examination of the current and future overall health of the economy as a whole
After you analyzed the overall economy, you have to analyze firm you are
interested in. You should analyze factors that give the firm a competitive
advantage in its sector such as management experience, history of performance,
growth potential, low cost producer, brand name etc. Find out as much as
.possible about the company and their products
Do they have any core competency or fundamental strength that puts them
?ahead of all the other competing firms
?What advantage do they have over their competing firms
?Do they have a strong market presence and market share
Or do they constantly have to employ a large part of their profits and resources
?in marketing and finding new customers and fighting for market share
After you understand the company & what they do, how they relate to the
market and their customers, you will be in a much better position to decide
.whether the price of the companies stock is going to go up or down
Having understood the basics of fundamental analysis, let us go into some more
.details
When investing in the stocks, we want the price of our stock to rise. Not only do
we want our stock price to rise, we want it to rise FAST! So the challenge is to
?figure out: which stock prices are going to rise fast
Some stocks are cheap and some are costly. Some are worth Rs.500 and some are
even worth 50paise. But the price of the stock is not important. The price of the
stock does not make a stock good to buy. What is important is how much the
.price of the stock is likely to rise
If you invest Rs.500 in one stock of Rs.500 and the price goes up to Rs.540 you
will make Rs.40. However, if you invest Rs.500 in a 50paise stock, you will have
1000 stocks. If the price of the stock goes up from 50paise to Rs.1, then the
.Rs.500 you invested is now Rs.1000. You made a profit of Rs.500
If you understand this, you can see that the price of the stock is not important.
What is important is the rise in the stocks price. More specifically the
.percentage rise in the stock price is important
If the Rs.500 stock becomes worth Rs.540, then that is a 8% rise. This 8% rise
only makes us Rs.40. On the other hand when we invest the same Rs.500 in the
50paise stock and the stock price goes up to Rs.1, it is a 100% rise as the stock
.price has doubled. This 100% rise makes us Rs.500
The point is that when picking a company, we are interested in a company whose
.stock price will rise by a large percentage
Please note: Looking at the above paragraphs, it may seem like a good idea to
buy all the really cheap 50paise and Rs.1 stocks hoping that their price will rise
by 100% or more. This sounds good, but it can also be really really bad some
times! These really small stocks are very volatile and unless you know what you
.are doing, do NOT get into them
However, the point to be noted is that we are interested in stocks that will have
the highest % rise in the stock price. Now the question is, how do you compare
stocks. How do you compare a stock worth Rs.500 to a stock worth 50paise and
.figure out which one will have a higher percentage rise
How do you compare two companies that are in different fields and different
industries? How do you know which one is fundamentally strong and which one
?is week
If you try to compare two companies in different industries and different
customers it is like comparing apples and elephants. There is no way to compare
!them
So fundamental analysts use different tools and ratios to compare all sorts of
!companies no matter what business they are in or what they do
Next let us get into the tools and ratios that tell us about the companies and their
....comparison
.A ratio that will help you look at future earnings growth is called the PEG ratio
You calculate the PEG by taking the P/E and dividing it by the projected growth
.in earnings
PEG = (P/E) / (projected growth in earnings)
For example, a stock with a P/E of 30 and projected earning growth next year of
.15% would have a PEG of 30 / 15 = 2
?What does the 2 mean
Technically speaking: The lower the PEG number, the less you pay for each unit
of future earnings growth. So even a stock with a high P/E, but high projected
.earning growth may be a good value
.So, to put it very simply, we are interested in stocks with a low PEG value
Just for the sake of understanding, consider this situation, you have a stock with
a low P/E. Since the stock is has a low P/E, you start do wonder why the stock
has a low P/E. Is it that the stock market does not like the stock? Or is it that the
stock market has overlooked a stock that is actually fundamentally very strong
?and of good value
To figure this out, you look at the PEG ratio. Now, if the PEG ratio is big (or
close to the P/E ratio), you can understand that this is probably because the
projected growth earnings are low. This is the kind of stock that the stock
.market thinks is of not much value
On the other hand, if the PEG ratio is small (or very small as compared to the
P/E ratio, then you know that it is a valuable stock) you know that the projected
earnings must be high. You know that this is the kind of fundamentally strong
.stock that the market has overlooked for some reason
Important note: You must understand that the PEG ratio relies on the projected
% earnings. These earnings are not always accurate and so the PEG ratio is not
.always accurate
Having understood these basic three ratios, you probably have started to
understand how these ratios help you understand a stock and what is valuable
.and what is not
In the next section we shall look at some of the things that every investor must
know about. Something that SILENTLY eats into the profits of each and every
...investor and how to beat it
Inflation" & how it eats your money silently & affects your"
!investments
Inflation, is an economic concept. What the cause of inflation is, is not important
to us from the point of view of this article. What is important to us is the effect of
inflation! The effect of inflation is the prices of everything going up over the
.years
A movie ticket was for a few paise in my dads time. Now it is worth Rs.50. My
dads first salary for the month was Rs.400 and over he years it has now become
Rs.75,000. This is what inflation is, the price of everything goes up. Because the
.price goes up, the salaries go up
If you really thing about it, inflation makes the worth of money reduce. What
you could buy in my dads time for Rs.10, now a days you will not be able to buy
for Rs.400 also. The worth of money has reduced! If this is still not clear consider
this, when my father was a kid, he used to get 50paise pocket money. He used to
use this money to go and watch a movie (At that time you could watch a movie
for 50paise!)
Now, just for the sake of understanding assume that my dad decided in his
childhood to save 50paise thinking, that one day when he becomes big, he will go
for a movie. Many years pass. The year now is 2006. My dad goes to the theater
and asks for a ticket. He offers the ticket-booth-guy at the theater 50paise and
asks for a ticket. The ticket booth guy says, I am sorry sir, the ticket is worth
!!Rs.50. You will not be able to even buy a paan with the 50paise
The moral of the story is that, the worth of the 50paise reduced dramatically.
50paise could buy a whole lot when my dad was a kid. Now, 50paise can buy
.nothing. This is inflation. This tells us two important things
Firstly: Do not keep your money stagnant. If you just save money by putting it
your safe it will loose value over time. If you have Rs.1000 in your safe today and
you keep it there for 10years or so, it will be worth a lot less after 10 years. If you
can buy something for Rs.1000 today, you will probably require Rs.1500 to buy it
.10 years from now. So do not keep money locked up in your safe
.Always invest money
If you cant think where to invest your money, then put it in a bank. Let it grow
by gaining interest. But whatever you do, do not just lock your money up in your
safe and keep it stagnant. If you do this, you will be loosing money without even
knowing it. The more money you keep stagnant the more money you will be
.loosing
Secondly: When investing, you have to make sure that the rate of return on your
.investment is higher than the rate of inflation
?What is the rate of inflation
As we said earlier, the prices of everything goes up over time and this
phenomenon is called inflation. The question is: By how much do the prices go
?up? At what rate do the prices do up
The rate at which the prices of everything go up is called the "rate of inflation".
For example, if the price of something is Rs.100 this year and next year the price
becomes approximately Rs.104 then the rate of inflation is 4%. If the price of
something is Rs.80 then after a year with a rate of inflation of 4% the price go up
to (80 x 1.04) = 83.2
So, when you make an investment, make sure that your rate of return on the
investment is higher than the rate of inflation in your country. In our county
India, for the year 2005-2006 the rate of inflation was 4% (Which is really low
and amazing!). This rate keeps changing every year. The finance minister
generally gives the official statement on the inflation rate of the country for a
.particular year
?What is the rate of return
The rate of return is how much you make on an investment. Suppose you invest
Rs.100 in the market and over a year, you make Rs.120, then you rate of return is
.20%
If you invest Rs.100 in the market today and you make money at a 3% "rate of
return" in one year you will have Rs.103. But now, since the rate of inflation is at
4%, an item costing Rs.100 today will cost Rs.104 a year from now. So what you
can buy with todays Rs.100, you will only be able to buy with Rs.104 a year from
.now
But the Rs.100 that you invested has grown only at a 3% rate of return and so it
!is worth Rs.103. In effect, you are loosing money
So in conclusion, the rate of return on your investments, have to be higher than
.the rate of inflation
From the above paragraphs you can note how silently, inflation eats into your
money. You would not even know about it an your money would sit loosing value
for no fault of yours. But inflation is not the only thing you should be
considering, there are other things too that eat into you money. The first thing is
.brokerage and the second thing is taxation
If combine this with the fact that inflation reduces the value of money over time,
you are just loosing money if you do not invest wisely without understanding
.brokerage and inflation
Important note about brokerage: Brokers make money on whatever transaction
you make. Whether you buy or sell, brokers will make money. Because brokers
basically make money on transactions. Because of this, brokers tend to
encourage you to trade. They dont really care about whether you make a profit
or loss. They just care about whether you are trading. The more money you are
using for trading, the more they will make. Because of this, it would be wise to
not blindly follow your brokers advise. The broker will give you hot tips etc.
not because they are looking out for you and your profit, but because they are
!thinking about their own personal profit
!!!There is even one more factor that eats into your money. Tax
Please note: We are not in any way encouraging you to not pay tax! We are just
.educating you about it
There is a short term capital gain tax in our country. For a short term (less
than one year) you have to pay tax on any capital gain you make though the
stock market trading. How much % tax you have to pay, depends on which "tax
.bracket" you fall in
Just to give you an idea. If I make Rs.100 though a transaction in the stock
market, since I fall in the 33% tax bracket. It have to pay Rs.33 of that to the
!!government
Please note: The government encourages you to be a long term-investor by
having no long term capital gain tax. If you make a capital gain by investing for
a period greater than one year, the you do not have to pay any tax on the money
.you make
Now combine this short term capital gain tax with brokerage and inflation!
Think about it for some time. You will almost make nothing on a small profit
gains! If you want to make money out of the stock market, you must make large
.profit gains
Conclusion: As a general rule, just for the sake of simplicity, your investments
must grow at a minimum rate of 15% per year to stay ahead of inflation, tax and
.brokerage!! Remember this when making all your investments
This concludes our basics of the stock market guide. There is lot more to learn!
And the best way to do it is to start investing! (Dont invest too much in the
beginning but do start!) Once you have your money in the market, you will start
!to understand things a whole lot better