Escolar Documentos
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Recursos naturales y
desarrollo
Esquema
z Funcin de los recursos naturales en la
actividad econmica
z Dotacin de recursos naturales y crecimiento
econmico
z Los recursos naturales como limitadores del
crecimiento a largo plazo.
{ El medio ambiente como recurso sumidero para
la produccin conjunta no deseada.
RECURSOS
NATURALES
Espaa
Irlanda
Portugal
800
700
600
500
400
300
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Los datos:
Log PIB 70
0,398
-0,643
-1,042
-1,921
-1,853
-1,891
Xmp/PIB
-6,920
-4,687
-5,019
-7,806
-7,104
-5,925
3,477
2,661
2,167
1,935
2,246
10,318
9,085
9,686
13,665
0,370
0,320
0,166
-0,018*
-0,006*
Grado de apertura
INV 70-89
Burocracia
Inestabilidad de precios de las
materias primas
Desigualdad
0,067*
Constante
-0,846
5,537
6,991
12,472
12,605
12,067
R2
0,130
0,420
0,481
0,597
0,598
0,617
* = no significativo
Enlace al artculo
Posibles causas:
z Tradicional: La riqueza fcil desincentiva el ingenio
z Versin economa poltica: La existencia de grandes yacimientos de
recursos naturales generara actividades de rent seeking o
bsqueda de rentas: burocracia, corrupcin, ...
z Mayor probabilidad de conflictos armados
z El impacto negativo se explicara por la existencia de una tendencia
decreciente de la relacin real de intercambio entre bienes
primarios y bienes manufacturados.
z El impacto negativo obedecera a la inestabilidad de los mercados
de bienes primarios.
z El sector de recursos naturales tiene un escaso nmero de
eslabonamientos posteriores y anteriores, y por lo tanto su
explotacin no pone en marcha una dinmica de desarrollo. A. O.
Hirschman La Estrategia de Desarrollo Econmico FCE.
z Al concentrarse la produccin el sector de RN se desvan recursos
de otros sectores que pueden tener mayores economas de escala
y por lo tanto mayores oportunidades de crecimiento.
XRN
tc
tc
apreciacin
XRN
Od
Od
El caso de Colombia
z Los pases con mayor dotacin de recursos naturales suelen ser tambin pases con
una mayor desigualdad. Esta relacin positiva entre desigualdad y dotacin de RN
podra responder a dos factores distintos:
{ Alta concentracin inicial de la propiedad de los recursos naturales (tierra, por ejemplo), y
por lo tanto alta concentracin de la renta generada por estos factores, que a su vez es un
componente significativo de la renta total.
{ Alternativamente, Leamer et al (1999), en un trabajo sobre dotacin de RN y distribucin de
la renta en Amrica Latina defienden la existencia de una relacin positiva entre el ndice de
Gini y la abundancia de tierras (que se vera potenciada en los climas tropicales) y negativa
entre IG e intensidad de capital:
I.Gini (1980) = 38,8 0,3 K/L + 7,5 Tierra de labor/L 17,2 Tierra de labor/L x clima + 7,3 Dummy Amrica Latina.
R2 = 0.68 (44 observaciones)
I.Gini (1990) = 41,0 0,1 K/L + 7,4 Tierra de labor/L 17,5 Tierra de labor/L x clima + 8,9 Dummy Amrica Latina.
R2 = 0.49 (49 observaciones)
* Carbon dioxide (CO2 ), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs),
perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulphurhexafluoride (SF6.
Climate Change and Economic Growth over The Last Half Century
Melissa Dell, Benjamin F. Jones, and Benjamin A. Olken (NBER Working Paper 14132)
In Climate Change and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century researchers Melissa Dell,
Benjamin Jones, and Benjamin Olken use year-by-year fluctuations in temperature and precipitation over the past
half century to examine how these variables affect aggregate economic activity. Using data for 136 countries over
the period 1950 to 2003, the authors find that higher temperatures have large negative effects on growth - but
only in poor countries. For such countries, the results suggest that a temperature increase of one degree Celsius
for one year reduces economic growth by about 1.1 percentage points. Analysis of decade or longer climate shifts
shows similar, substantially negative effects of higher temperature on growth in poor countries.
The researchers note that temperature could affect economic activity in poor countries in two ways: by influencing
the level of output, for example through crop yields, or by influencing the growth rate of output, for example by
affecting investment or the institutions that influence productivity growth. Their results show persistent effects of
temperature shocks, suggesting that higher temperatures reduce growth rates, not simply the level of output.
Underlying these aggregate effects, there is also evidence that higher temperatures substantially reduce
agricultural output, industrial output, investment, innovation, and political stability. These broad ranging
effects suggest the importance of various channels not usually considered in assessments of the potential impact of
climate change, and help to explain how temperature might affect not simply the level of output, but also growth
rates in poor countries.
These findings have implications for long-standing debates about the role of climate in economic development, and
for more recent debates about the possible impact of future climate change. By showing that changes in
temperature have large effects on growth in poor countries, the authors demonstrate that climate is still relevant for
economic development. Looking forward, they show that, even allowing for rapid adaptation to climatic change,
the negative impacts of climate change on poor countries may be larger than previously thought. Overall, the
findings suggest that future climate change may substantially widen income gaps between rich and poor countries.
Deterioro
Medioambiental
PIB pc crtico
Posibles explicaciones:
zCambio estructural
zEl medio ambiente como bien superior
(ErD >>1)
zIntroduccin de mejores tecnologas
zCambio en los patrones de consumo de
energa (biomasa -> electricidad)
Problemas:
z Slo se manifiesta para algunos contaminantes
de accin local)
z El punto de inflexin vara enormemente con los
datos y las tcnicas de estimacin utilizadas
(resultados poco robustos): de 3.137 $ a 101.166
para S02.
z En parte puede responder a la deslocalizacin de
actividades contaminantes (Memorandum de
Larry Summers)
Cuadro 1.
Umbral
1990 $
Emisin o
Concentracin.
PPP
Panayotou,
1993
$3.137
Emisin
No
Shafik, 1994
$4.379
Concentr.
Si
Autores
Fuente
Periodo
Pases/ciudades
datos
propios
1987-88
55 pases desarrollados y
menos desarrollados
Tendencia temporal,
dummies de localizacin
GEMS
1972-88
47 ciudades en 31 pases
Si
Desigualdad de renta,
alfabetizacin, derechos
polticos y civiles,
urbanizacin, dummies de
localizacin
GEMS
1977-91
Nmero desconocido de
ciudades en 42 pases
Dummies de localizacin,
densidad de poblacin,
tendencia
GEMS
1977,
1982,
1988
Hasta 52 ciudades en 32
pases
GEMS
1982-84
30 ciudades en pases
desarrollados y menos
desarrollados
OECD
1970-92
11
WRI OECD
1979-87
22 pases de la OCDE y 8
menos desarrollados
UN
1974-89
13 pases desarrollados y
10 menos desarrollados
US EPA
19291994
Estados de EE.UU.
ASL
1960-90
73 pases desarrollados y
menos desarrollados
Torras y Boyce,
1998
$4.641
Grossman y
Krueger, 1991
$4.7725.965
Concentr.
No
Panayotou,
1997
$5.965
Concentr.
No
Cole et al.,
1997
$8.232
Emisin
Si
Selden and
Song, 1994
$10.39110.620
Emisin
Si
Kaufmann et
al., 1998
$14.730
Concentr.
Si
$22.675
Emisin
N/A
Stern y
Common, 2001
$101.166
Emisin
Si
Concentr.
Variables
adicionales
Densidad de poblacin,
variables de poltica
Dummy de pas, nivel
tecnolgico
Densidad de poblacin
PIB/rea, exportaciones de
acero/PIB
Efectos temporales y de
pas
'Dirty' Industries: Just between you and me, shouldn't the World Bank be encouraging MORE migration
of the dirty industries to the LDCs [Less Developed Countries]? I can think of three reasons:
z 1) The measurements of the costs of health impairing pollution depends on the foregone earnings
from increased morbidity and mortality. From this point of view a given amount of health impairing
pollution should be done in the country with the lowest cost, which will be the country with the
lowest wages. I think the economic logic behind dumping a load of toxic waste in the lowest wage
country is impeccable and we should face up to that.
z 2) The costs of pollution are likely to be non-linear as the initial increments of pollution probably
have very low cost. I've always though that under-populated countries in Africa are vastly UNDERpolluted, their air quality is probably vastly inefficiently low compared to Los Angeles or Mexico
City. Only the lamentable facts that so much pollution is generated by non-tradable industries
(transport, electrical generation) and that the unit transport costs of solid waste are so high prevent
world welfare enhancing trade in air pollution and waste.
z 3) The demand for a clean environment for aesthetic and health reasons is likely to have very high
income elasticity. The concern over an agent that causes a one in a million change in the odds of
prostrate cancer is obviously going to be much higher in a country where people survive to get
prostrate cancer than in a country where under 5 mortality is is 200 per thousand. Also, much of the
concern over industrial atmosphere discharge is about visibility impairing particulates. These
discharges may have very little direct health impact. Clearly trade in goods that embody aesthetic
pollution concerns could be welfare enhancing. While production is mobile the consumption of
pretty air is a non-tradable.
The problem with the arguments against all of these proposals for more pollution in LDCs (intrinsic
rights to certain goods, moral reasons, social concerns, lack of adequate markets, etc.) could be
turned around and used more or less effectively against every Bank proposal for liberalization.
Dos lecturas
z Definicin dbil: basta con que las generaciones
futuras reciban un stock de capital (fsico, humano,
natural) al menos no inferior) => posibilidad de
sustitucin.
z Definicin fuerte: mantenimiento del capital natural.
Este objetivio exigira segn Cosntanza y Daly :
{ para los recursos renovables ajustar su explotacin a los niveles
de sostenibilidad biolgica.
{ para nos no renovables reinvertir los ingresos
derivados de
su explotacin en recursos renovables.
{ en general: primar la energia solar, la agricultura orgnica y los
productos duraderos
Indicadores:
zIndicador dbil de Pearce y Atkinson
(1993): Tasa de ahorro, que se interpreta
en trminos de capacidad de acumulacin
de capital, menos la suma de las tasas de
depreciacin del capital fsico y el capital
natural.
Tasa de
ahorro
Tasa de depreciacin
del capital fijo
Tasa de depreciacin
del capital natural
ndice de
sostenibilidad
Costa Rica
26
10
15
Checoslovaquia
30
10
13
26
12
Hungra
26
10
11
Japn
33
14
17
Pases Bajos
25
10
14
Polonia
30
11
10
EE.UU.
18
12
Mxico
24
12
12
Filipinas
15
11
Burkina Faso
10
-9
Etiopa
-7
Indonesia
20
17
-2
Madagascar
16
-9
Malawi
-3
Mali
-4
-14
Nigeria
15
17
-5
-1
Pas
Papua-Nueva Guinea
Fuente: Pearce y Atkinson (1993)
15
Huella
ecolgica
(1)*
Capacidad
biolgica
disponible (2)*
9,2
5,4
-3,8
-70,4
Europa Occidental
5,1
2,1
-3,0
-142,9
PECO
3,8
4,2
0,4
9,5
2,1
1,0
-1,1
-110,0
3,1
5,5
2,4
43,6
Asa/Pacfico
1,3
0,7
-0,6
-85,7
frica
1,2
1,3
0,1
7,7
Mundo
2,2
1,8
-0,4
-22,2
Poltica econmica.
z Ecuacin Commoner-Ehrlich:
(1) I = P . Ypc . T
I= impacto medioambiental de la accin
antrpica,
P = Poblacin
Ypc=produccin per capita(Y/P),
T polucin (genrica) asociada a cada unidad de
producto.
2,5
9.000.000.000
8.000.000.000
7.000.000.000
6.000.000.000
1,5
5.000.000.000
4.000.000.000
3.000.000.000
2.000.000.000
0,5
1.000.000.000
Poblacin
0
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
10
Estados Unidos
Portugal
Pases Bajos
Japn
Alemania
India
19
99
19
97
19
95
19
93
19
91
19
89
19
87
19
85
19
83
19
81
19
79
19
77
19
75