ReceiverOperatingCharacteristics

ReceiverOperatingCharacteristic(ROC)curvesareausefulwaytointerpret
sensitivityandspecificitylevelsandtodeterminerelatedcutscores.ROCcurvesarea
generalizationofthesetofpotentialcombinationsofsensitivityandspecificitypossible
forpredictors(Pepe,Janes,Longton,Leisenring,&Newcomb,2004).ROCcurve
analysesnotonlyprovideinformationaboutcutscores,butalsoprovideanatural
commonscaleforcomparingdifferentpredictorsthataremeasuredindifferentunits,
whereastheoddsratioinlogisticregressionanalysismustbeinterpretedaccordingtoa
unitincreaseinthevalueofthepredictor,whichcanmakecomparisonbetween
predictorsdifficult(Pepe,etal.,2004).Anoverallindicationofthediagnosticaccuracy
ofaROCcurveistheareaunderthecurve(AUC).AUCvaluescloserto1indicatethe
screeningmeasurereliablydistinguishesamongstudentswithsatisfactoryand
unsatisfactoryreadingperformance,whereasvaluesat.50indicatethepredictorisno
betterthanchance(Zhou,Obuchowski,&Obuschowski,2002).
ComputeaROCCurveinSPSS
TocomputeaROCcurveinSPSS(v.16),thefollowingproceduresshouldbe
followed:
1. Yourscreeningmeasureshoulduseastandardscore

2. YouroutcomemeasureshouldberecodedintoadichotomousvariableofNotat
risk0,andAtRisk1
3. UnderthetopmenuoptionAnalysis,selectROCCurve
4. YouwillhaveadialogboxthatsaysROCCurve.Inthisbox,youshoulddrag
yourscreeningmeasuretotheboxthatsaysTestVariable.Youshoulddrag
yourdichotomizedoutcomevariableintotheStateVariablebox.
5. IntheboxthatasksfortheValueoftheStateVariable,put1(youare
tryingtopredictwhichkidsareatrisk).
6. IntheboxlabeledDisplaychecktheoptionsforROCCurvewithDiagonal
referencelineandStandardErrorandConfidenceInterval
7. IntheupperrightcorneroftheROCCurvedialogbox,youllseetheword
Optionsclickonit.
8. AnewdialogboxshouldopencalledROCCurveAnalysis;Options.Inthis
box,underTestDirectionselecttheappropriateoption.Youwilllikelyneedto
selectSmallertestresultindicatesmorepositivetestthismeansthatalower
scoreonthescreeninstrumentmeansthestudentismorelikelytobeatrisk.
9. SelectContinueandyoushouldbereturnedtotheROCCurvedialogbox,
selectOkandtheanalysiswillrun.
10. Thestatisticsofinterestwillbe:
a. CaseProcessingSummarythisgivesthetotalN,aswellasthenumber
ofstudentsatriskandnotatrisk

b. ROCCurveGraphgivesavisualdepictionofthescreeningmeasures
utility
c. AreaUndertheCurvetableprovidestheAUCalongwiththestandard
error&confidenceinterval
ComputeaROCCurveinExcel
TocomputeaROCcurveusingExcel,consultthefollowingwebsitetodownloada
template:http://www.analyseit.com/products/method_evaluation/roc.aspx?
gclid=COba5eWAw5cCFRxNagodZ3sxSw

References
Pepe, M., Janes, H., Longton, G., Leisenring, W. & Newcomb, P. (2004). Limitations of
the odds ratio in gauging the performance of a diagnostic, prognostic, or screening
marker. American Journal of Epidemiology, 159, 882-890.
Zhou, X. H., Obuchowski, N. A., & Obushcowski, D. M. (2002). Statistical methods in
diagnostic medicine. Wiley & Sons: New York.