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Investment
thoughts
March 2015
The buzz around the National Pension System (NPS) has increased manifold since the presentation of the Union Budget last month.
The additional tax benefit accorded to the decade-old retirement planning product has added to its attractiveness for investors.
Improving life expectancy, rising living costs and transition away from joint-family structure all make it imperative to build a retirement
corpus that can see one through the sunset years. In a country without an adequate social security net, therefore, retirement products
such as NPS become that much more indispensable.
What is NPS?
NPS is a contribution-based retirement saving scheme managed by professional fund managers that invests the corpus based on an individuals perceived risk-return
profile (life-cycle investing approach) and provides benefits of hassle-free asset allocation, flexibility and tax efficiency. The scheme offers two types of accounts - Tier I
and Tier II. The Tier I account is eligible for tax benefits, whereas the Tier II savings account is optional. The minimum monthly contribution for Tier I account is Rs 500 and
the minimum yearly contribution Rs 6,000.
Active choice individual fund: Investors aware of their risk-return objectives can choose the active option, which offers flexibility to decide asset allocation
between the three asset classes (E, C and G). However, with a view to reduce downside risk, the maximum exposure to equities is restricted to 50% of the total corpus.
Auto choice lifecycle fund: This is suitable for investors who are not well-versed with asset allocation and how to change it dynamically in sync with risk-return objectives.
It is a default option and acts as a lifecycle fund wherein the asset allocation is linked to the age of the investor and changes over the life span in a pre-determined manner.
At the lowest entry age (18 years), asset allocation would be most aggressive with 50% in E, 30% in C and 20% in G until the age of 35. The ratio of investments in E and
C decreases annually while proportion of G increases with age. At 55 years, allocation will be most conservative - G will account for 80%, while E & C will fall to 10% each.
Performance snapshot
Inception
date
1-May-09
1-Apr-08
25-Jun-09
4-Oct-10
5-Nov-12
Tax benefits1
The asset classes available for investment under NPS have managed to outperform or mirror
market returns since its inception. Table 1 provides a snapshot of their performance.
For a case study, we compared the auto choice investment option of NPS with traditional
products (FDs), based on historical returns of various asset classes. And what did we find? An
investment of Rs 16,667 every month (Rs 2 lakh per annum in total to avail maximum tax rebate)
in the NPS fund was able to generate a corpus of Rs 3.7 cr in 30 years - over Rs 1.3 cr higher
than the corpus built through traditional investments. The primary push for investment in NPS was
from the higher allocation to class E at a younger age.
Total
Contribution
(Rs)
16,667
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
Class C
Class G
50%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
10%
30%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
10%
20%
20%
35%
50%
65%
80%
80%
NPS
Total
(Rs)
FDs
Asset
allocation (%)
FDs
Total
(Rs)
16,667
1,362,492
3,650,567
7,400,526
13,347,293
22,510,963
36,681,634
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
16,667
1,223,566
3,021,387
5,662,975
9,544,334
15,247,324
23,626,887
NPS also helps save tax. The Union Budget granted exclusive tax Calculation made assuming 15%, 8% and 9% annualised growth for class E, C and G, respectively and 8% for FDs
benefit to the plan. Now, in addition to the Rs 1.5 lakh exemption
allowed under Section 80CCE (which comes under the broader section of 80C) for investments in NPS, one can get a deduction under 80CCD (1B) of Rs 50,000 for
investment in NPS alone. This additional exemption enables saving Rs 5,150, Rs 10,300 or Rs 15,450 (including cess), depending on the tax bracket he is in (10%, 20%
or 30%, respectively). Further, salaried individuals can avail tax deduction under Section 80CCD (2) in addition to the Rs 2 lakh investment limit explained above if their
employers contribute to NPS. Investments under this section are, however, restricted to 10% of the basic salary plus dearness allowance.
Summing up
To be able to enjoy financial independence post-retirement, it is imperative that one works to a targeted savings and investment plan that can build a wholesome corpus.
NPS offers one of the best platforms for retirement planning with the benefits of life-cycle investing, flexibility, low cost, professional management and tax-efficiency.
Growth rate assumptions based on: 20-year average daily rolling returns of S&P BSE Sensex since July 1979 for equity; 10-year average daily rolling returns of CRISIL AAA Long Term Bond Index since
inception (April 2002) for corporate bonds; 10-year average daily rolling returns of CRISIL Gilt Index since inception (January 1997) for government securities; Average of term deposit interest rates (5 years &
above maturity) since 2000-01 for fixed deposits (Source: RBI)
January
Absolute
28,2015
30, 2015
Change
Change
Indices
CNX Nifty
8901.85
8808.90
92.95
1.06
29361.50
29182.95
178.55
0.61
Indicators
10 year Gsec
7.72%
7.69%
5.37%
5.19%
Indian equity indices stayed in the positive territory in February. The key benchmarks CNX Nifty and S&P BSE
Sensex rose 1.06% and 0.61%, respectively, albeit lower than 6.35% and 6.12% in January.
The gains were owing to several positive domestic cues including the key economic events (Union Budget and
Economic Survey) and positive GDP growth estimate (due to change in the methodology for calculating
domestic growth).
The market rose after the government announced several measures such as increased spending on the
country's infrastructure, deferral of General Anti Avoidance Rule (GAAR) by two years, proposed cut in
corporate tax to 25% from 30% over four years and implementation of the Goods and Service Tax (GST) from
April 2016.
Positive signs from India's Economic Survey including growth rate of 8.1-8.5% in FY16 on new GDP
calculation formula and medium-term fiscal deficit target of 3% of GDP also augured well for the market.
Among positive global cues, news of ceasefire agreement in Ukraine and optimism about Greece's debt deal
aided market gains. Investors also cheered the dovish tone of the US Federal Reserve Chief Janet Yellen after
she said that the US central bank would be patient about raising interest rates.
Further gains were capped due to discouraging quarterly earnings from some of the index heavyweights. Weak global cues such as disappointing Chinese trade data, Greece
debt deal uncertainty and worries about an earlier-than-expected interest rate hike in the US also pulled down the market.
CNX indices recorded a mixed performance in February. CNX IT index was the top gainer - up 7.06% on defensive buying and strong earnings and upbeat guidance from
Cognizant Technology Solutions.
CNX Metal index rose 3.45% after some companies won mines in the ongoing coal blocks auction.
CNX Media Index was the top laggard in the month falling 5.34% followed by CNX PSU Bank index - down 4.67%.
Market Overview
Top Stock Exposures February 2015
11.8
78,000
11.0
26,000
10.3
-26,000
9.5
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
-130,000
Apr-14
8.0
May-14
-78,000
Mar-14
8.8
130,000
Feb-14
12.5
1. Banks
2. Computers - Software
3. Infosys Ltd.
3. Pharmaceuticals
4. Refineries/Marketing
5. Cement
6. Engineering
7. Commercial Vehicles
8. Passenger/Utility Vehicles
Industry AUM
9. Power Equipment
10. NBFC
Note: The month-end portfolios as of February 2015 have been considered for the report.
Absolute Monthly Returns%
Feb-2015
Jan-2015
-0.22
3.22
Category returns
CRISIL AMFI Large Cap Fund Performance Index
New Stocks Entries and Exits in Mutual Fund Portfolios February 2015
Entries
Exits
3.04
0.25
3.36
-0.09
2.30
-0.09
1.91
0.41
1.98
0.40
1.27
0.43
0.91
BF Investment Ltd.
0.58
0.56
0.64
0.51
-4.52
3.04
-0.24
2.78
0.42
The Indian mutual fund industry's assets under management (AUM) rose 1.76% or
by Rs 20,840 cr to Rs 12.02 lakh cr in February 2015, according to the monthly
numbers released by the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI).
This is the first time the industry's assets have crossed the Rs 12 lakh cr mark.
Gains were led by inflows into equity, balanced, gilt and liquid funds.
Positive sentiment for the underlying asset class helped equity funds attract net
inflows (Rs 5,840 cr) for the tenth consecutive month in February. The category's
assets rose 1.41% to close at a record high of Rs 3.46 lakh cr.
Balanced funds also continued to benefit from the upbeat sentiment in the equity
market and attracted net inflows for the ninth consecutive month. The category's
AUM was up by Rs 715 cr to Rs 26,507 cr - its record high asset tally.
Hopes of easing interest rates by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) pushed gilt funds
to touch a new peak of Rs 13,180 cr in February. AUM increased 19% or by Rs
2,105 cr primarily due to inflows of Rs 2,058 cr (sixth consecutive rise) in the month.
While the RBI did not cut its interest rate in the scheduled policy review meet in the
first week of February, it cut the repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF)
by 25 bps to 7.50% on March 4, 2015. This is the second time the central bank has
surprised the market in the current year with an in-between policy review cut; it had
Fund News
Liquid/ money market funds reported net inflows of Rs 8,784 cr, giving a boost to the
total industry assets. Inflows into the category are a part of the cyclical inflows which
occur in the first two months of the quarter (January-February) before being
withdrawn for quarter-end requirements (to pay corporate advance tax) in the last
month of the quarter (March). The category's AUM rose 4.04% or by Rs 10,712 cr to
Rs 2.76 lakh cr.
Income funds' assets rose to a new high of Rs 5.22 lakh cr, up 0.41% or Rs 2,132
cr, due to mark-to-market (MTM) gains in the underlying assets. Open-ended and
interval schemes posted net inflows of Rs 8,486 cr and Rs 164 cr, respectively,
while closed-ended schemes posted net outflows of Rs 8,802 cr, resulting in net
marginal outflows of Rs 152 cr for the category.
On the regulatory front, SEBI plans to tighten its grip on mutual funds; it may cap
upfront commission to distributors.
AMFI has sent a proposal to all fund houses to cap the upfront commission at 1%.
AMFI has approached the SEBI to simplify the current MF advertising norms.
Yes Bank said it will enter the mutual fund business next fiscal through either the organic or inorganic route.
Reliance Capital Asset Management (RCAM) completed the regulatory clearance process for the sale of an additional stake to
Japans Nippon Life; Nippon Life hiked its stake in RCAM to 35% by acquiring an additional 9% stake for Rs 657 cr.
Fund Focus
Scheme Name
1
Year
3
Since
Years Inception
Inception
Date
Average
AUM
(Rs.Crore)
Style
Box
Std.
Deviation Sharpe
(%)
Ratio
Balanced
HDFC Balanced Fund
-1.41 5.24
2.40
0.14
11-Sep-00 2658.93
12.27
1.92
5-Jan-96
13.15
2.15
5.37
22-May-04 353.26
6.26
2.22
-0.23 4.69
30-Mar-04
6.03
1.82
1437.90
MIP Aggressive
905.82
Investment Style
CRISIL Mutual Fund Ranks as of December 2014
Value
Large
Risk Ratios are annualised; period for risk ratios is three years; risk free rate:
8.56% (average T-bill auction cut off rate during the period)
Blend
Growth
Diversified
Average AUM is 3-months average number as disclosed by AMFI for the period
October-December 2014
CREDIT QUALITY
High
Medium
Low
High
INTEREST
Medium
RATE
Low
SENSITIVITY
The risk profile of the fund falls between that of a pure debt fund
and a balanced fund (greater than 50% allocation to equity). This is
beneficial to investors looking for a small equity exposure but with
stable monthly returns. The higher debt component seeks to
provide the necessary stability in returns. Over five years, the fund
has distributed dividends in almost all the 60 months, indicating
consistency in terms of regular dividend payouts. The average
dividend yield of the fund over this period is 0.48%.
Performance
The fund has given CAGR (compounded annual growth rate)
returns of 10.4% since its inception. The performance over the last
one year has been notable with 29.1% returns vis--vis 17.4%
returns by the benchmark index (CRISIL MIP Blended Fund Index)
and 21.2% returns by its peers (MIP Aggressive Funds as per
CRISIL ranking December 2014). In the long-term period of 10
years, the fund returned 10.3% vis--vis 8.4% by the benchmark
index and nearly 10% by peers (Chart 1).
40
Oct - Dec
Jul - Sep
2014
2014
Change
Oct - Dec
Jul - Sep
2014
2014
Change
150468
141481
8987
6.35
4926
4754
172
3.62
136763
127664
9100
7.13
4082
4411
-328
-7.45
126069
122068
4001
3.28
3697
3921
-224
-5.72
107968
102616
5352
5.22
3087
2905
182
6.26
87390
83250
4140
4.97
3021
2519
502
19.94
72141
72850
-709
-0.97
2873
3192
-319
-10.00
63643
55611
8032
14.44
1972
2060
-88
-4.30
47920
45738
2182
4.77
1527
1245
282
22.66
38796
37445
1351
3.61
1515
2494
-979
-39.27
37532
37483
49
0.13
1461
1048
413
39.45
24251
24544
-293
-1.19
813
792
21
2.67
24115
22508
1606
7.14
589
666
-77
-11.53
22670
22508
163
0.72
588
380
208
54.76
21336
20673
663
3.21
545
490
55
11.28
19832
17647
2184
12.38
516
479
37
7.65
19564
18944
621
3.28
320
314
2.07
14240
11976
2264
18.90
280
202
78
38.77
14124
15380
-1256
-8.17
255
253
0.93
9101
8878
224
2.52
148
148
-1
-0.42
7793
7101
692
9.74
32
29
8.31
7618
8158
-540
-6.62
Grand Total
1106279
1059738
46541
4.39
7065
8785
-1720
-19.58
AAUM is the quarterly average number and excludes Fund of Funds Data
6832
6498
334
5.14
6802
7097
-295
-4.16
30
20
10
0
1 Year
3 Years
5 Years
7 Years
10 Years
(Period)
Portfolio Analysis
The scheme had an average equity exposure of about 29% over
the past three years ended February 2015, the highest among its
peers (averaged 21% during the period). On the asset quality front,
the fund has maintained an average 72% of its total debt holdings
in top rated papers (AAA and P1+) and government securities. The
modified duration of the debt portfolio is nearly four years for the
three-year period ended February 2015.
Fund Manager
Satyabrata Mohanty, a CA and CFA, has over 15 years of
experience in finance and research. Kaustubh Gupta, a B.Com
graduate and a CA, has over eight years of experience.
The Union Budget 2015-16 was a mixed bag for the mutual fund industry with
some positives and negatives. One of biggest positive for the industry was to
make the merger of schemes non-taxable for unit holders. However, on one
condition that the consolidation should be of two or more schemes of an
equity-oriented fund or two or more schemes of a fund other than equityoriented fund. As per the new regulation, the merger will not be regarded as
transfer and, hence, it will not lead to capital gains for the underlying investor.
For instance, in the earlier regime if an investor had invested in an equityoriented scheme, say, towards the end of 2014 and in 2015 the scheme was
Pre-Budget
Post-Budget
merged; since the investment duration is less than one year, the short-term
gains made by the scheme would be applicable to the investor, which would
be subject to tax of 16.995% (applicable for equity-oriented schemes). Thus,
even though there was no sale of units, investor still had a tax liability.
However, under the new regime, the investor need not pay any tax in the event
of a merger. The investor will be liable to pay tax only while selling the merged
entity units on the basis of the holding period and not at the time of the merger.
This measure will help mutual funds to consolidate similar types of schemes
which, in turn, would meet the long-term aim of the regulator to reduce
duplication and confusion in investments.
*Equity-oriented funds
Long-term capital gains tax is nil for investments with holding period > one year
Short-term capital gains tax is 16.995% for holding period < one year
*Debt-oriented funds
Long-term capital gains tax for holding period > three years is 22.66% with
indexation
Short-term capital gains tax for investments < three years is taxed as per
individual income tax slabs of 10%, 20% and 30% respectively
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Contact Details
Deepak Mittal : +91 22 3342 8031; deepak.mittal@crisil.com
Anjali Nataraj: +91 22 3342 8047; anjali.nataraj@crisil.com
Dinesh Agarwal: +91 22 3342 3440; dinesh.agarwal@crisil.com
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