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Being a Dictator
But will the army continue to back the president if the
economy starts to tank?
If even a small fraction of these projects materialize, Sisi will cement deep support in
some quarters. Wealthy business owners and the small but politically influential middle
class have both reliably remained in Sisis corner, and could benefit from infrastructure
development. The military will also play a major role in any large-scale construction
projects and, if shrewdly distributed, new housing or other perks could neutralize some
of the few potential oases of organized political opposition, such as factory workers in
the cities of the Suez Canal zone and the Nile Delta.
The medium-term stability of Sisis regime, however, may lead to more trouble for
Egypt down the road. His repressive policies will not cure the countrys many ills, and
are guaranteed to drive Egypt into even worse shape that it was when it rose up
against Hosni Mubarak in January 2011. Recent events underscore Sisis paranoid
style, punctuated over the weekend by banning soccer fan clubs known as Ultras and
sentencing exiled political science professor Emad Shahin to death. As Shahin put it in
a statement, the show trials are a centerpiece of Sisis effort to reconstitute the
security state and intimidate all opponents.
The pattern of prosecutions fits that argument. If the government casts its net wide
enough, it wont have to worry about student union protests or critical university
professors, because the majority of Egyptians will be frightened into silence.
Sisis paranoid style appears to be the product of a coherent view among Egypts
fractious security services, which are showing a unity of purpose in carrying out the
campaign against all political dissent. The military, police, intelligence agencies, and
courts are pulling together to carry out the governments political vision an
impressive bureaucratic achievement, but one that bodes poorly for democratic
reform.
The downsides of the new dictatorships governing approach will be toxic for Egypt
over the long haul. Securing the cooperation of a balkanized bureaucracy is not the
same as controlling it: Sisi has the courts in lockstep on his side, but at the expense of
their reputation. The courts have clearly abetted military rule, disbanding the elected
parliament on flimsy pretexts, barring popular presidential candidates, and certifying
election laws that served the militarys aims.
As a result of these machinations, no one will be able to take the judiciary seriously as
a branch of government and a future ruler, even an unelected autocrat, who wants
to restore some semblance of the rule of law will face a daunting rebuilding job. The
situation only deteriorated further today, with the appointment of Ahmed el-Zend as
justice minister: The head of the influential Judges Club famously told a television
show that judges are masters in our homeland. Everyone else are slaves.
The army, which paved Sisis path to power, remains the presidents only native
constituency. But theres no evidence to suggest that in a crisis say, an economic
collapse or a widespread popular uprising Egypts generals would sacrifice their
own institutional privileges to protect Sisi.
Even authoritarian rulers must play politics to retain power, pacifying the key
organizations and constituencies that support them. Under the former dictator Hosni
Mubarak, the military had to compete against the police, the intelligence services, and
the circle of business moguls around the ruling family for its perks. Today, the military
possesses unchecked power, which is likely to lead to greater corruption,
unaccountability, and serial failures to accomplish the basic bread-and-butter business
of the state.
This incompetence will negatively affect the very war on terror upon which Sisi is
building his legitimacy. Jihadis are openly operating out of the Sinai, but according to
the few independent reports that come out of the peninsula, poorly trained soldiers
have employed scorched-earth tactics in retaliation, bombing towns and arresting
random men while actual jihadis escape. Convicting and trying men for crimes
they probably didnt commit as appeared to occur over the weekend in a ballyhooed
terror trial wont end the destabilizing domestic insurgency either.
Sisi also faces other long-term threats that are not solely of his making. These include
an untenable national balance sheet, subsidies too expensive to maintain and too
crucial to eliminate without massive social dislocation, growing unemployment, and
inadequate water for agriculture under current usage practices.
Ultimately, any economic reform will depend on foreign pressure a formula that
didnt work when the United States was the primary donor. Perhaps financial advisers
from the United Arab Emirates will have better luck as they try to implement better
practices in the ministries and government offices that will absorbed upward of $32
billion from the Gulf monarchies ever since Sisis coup. If those massive sums cant
buy meaningful political influence or instill sound economic practices, no amount of
foreign money will.
The new regime is clearly unable to resolve these challenges, but history suggests
that mismanagement can continue for a long time. Indeed, perhaps the greatest threat
to Egypt is that Sisi simply muddles through. There are surely fissures within the
regime, but he doesnt need a monolithic ruling elite: He needs just enough power to
stay in charge, and enough international support to ignore the outrage of Egyptians
who want civil rights, political freedom, and genuine economic development.
Photo credit: MOHAMED EL-SHAHED/AFP/Getty Images
Posted by Thavam