Instruction

4, October 14
Response of Material Delays to Steps, Ramps, and Cycles (pp. 425
& 426)
Subquestion 1 & 2:
In all cases assume that prior to time zero the delay is in equilibrium with the outflow and
inflow both equal to 100 units/day.
Because of this statement you can determine that the initial value of the stock equals 500
units (100 units/day * 5 days average delay time).

inflow

Material in
Transit

outflow

step input
average delay time
ramp input
exponential growth
<Time>
oscillation

Step-input:
STEP(100,0)
Ramp-input:
IF THEN ELSE (Time >=0, 5*Time, 0)
Exponential growth:
IF THEN ELSE (Time>=0, -100+100*(1.05)^Time, 0)
Oscillation:
IF THEN ELSE (Time>=0, 100*sin(Time/(10/(2*3.14159))), 0)
Note that: 3.14159 =
To simulate the Step-input, use the following equation for the inflow:
Inflow = 100+step input+0*ramp input+0*exponential growth+0*oscillation
Outflow = Material in Transit/average delay time

inflow
400

units/Day

300
200
100
0
-5

-3

-1

inflow : normal
inflow : step
inflow : ramp

9 11 13 15
Time (Day)

17 19

21

23

25

17 19

21

23

25

inflow : exponential
inflow : oscillation

outflow
400

units/Day

300
200
100
0
-5

-3

outflow : normal
outflow : step
outflow : ramp

-1

9 11 13 15
Time (Day)

outflow : exponential
outflow : oscillation

Subquestion 3:
Third-order delay:
Material in
Transit 1

inflow

outflow 1

Material in
Transit 2

outflow 2

Material in
Transit 3

outflow 3

step input
average delay time
ramp input
exponential growth
<Time>
oscillation

Outflows of third-order delays (assuming that average delay time is 5 days for each of the
three outflows):

outflow 3
200
170
140
110
80
-5

-3

-1

outflow 3 : normal 3rd

outflow 3 : step 3rd
outflow 3 : ramp 3rd

9 11 13 15
Time (Day)

17 19

outflow 3 : exponential 3rd

outflow 3 : oscillation 3rd

21

23

25

Pipeline delay:

Material in
Transit

inflow

outflow

step input
average delay time
ramp input
exponential growth
<Time>
oscillation

Outflow = DELAY FIXED(inflow, average delay time, 100)

Outflows of pipeline delay:

outflow
400

units/Day

300
200
100
0
-5

-3

-1

outflow : normal pipeline

outflow : step pipeline
outflow : ramp pipeline
outflow : exponential pipeline
outflow : oscillation pipeline

9 11 13 15
Time (Day)

17 19

21

23

25

Response of Delays to Changing Delay Times (pp. 435)

Subquestion 1: The Postoffice.
average delay time

mailing

Letters in
Transit

delivery

mailing = 100
Letters in Transit(0) = 0
delivery = DELAY3(mailing, average delay time)
average delay time = 5
Change average delay time into:
a) A longer delay: 5 + STEP(5, 5)
b) A shorter delay: 5 STEP (2.5, 5)

delivery
200
150
100
50
0
-5

-3

-1

9 11 13 15
Time (Day)

17 19

21

23

25

17 19

21

23

25

delivery : postoffice normal

delivery : postoffice shorter delay
delivery : postoffice longer delay

Letters in Transit
600
300
0
-300
-600
-5

-3

-1

9 11 13
Time (Day)

Letters in Transit : postoffice normal

Letters in Transit : postoffice shorter delay
Letters in Transit : postoffice longer delay

15

Subquestion 2:
If the actual order rate (O) is equal to the expected order rate (), then the error (see Figure
11-10) is zero. Zero divided by the adjustment time is still zero. So, when the adjustment time
suddenly decreases, nothing happens.

Exercise 1 of handout
Assume that initially 30 employees have a contract and 10 future employees are in training.
The average contract duration C is 5 years and the training period takes 1 year. Suppose the
desired number changes from 30 to 40.

a) Determine the number of employees P(t) in the cases A=1 year and A=10
years.
The situation is described by the following model:

P
F2

F1

F3
C

Figure 1-1. Vensim diagram for trainees and employees.

where: O = the number of future employees in training, O(t ) = 10 at t = 0 ;

P = the number of actual employees working on a contract basis, P (t ) = 30
at t = 0 ;
G = the desired number of employees, G = 40 employees;
A = the systems adjustment time;
B = the training period, B=1 year;
C = the contract duration, C= 5 years.
The given task can be solved by a system of differential equations describing the model:
dO G P(t ) O(t )
(1)
=

dt
A
B

dP O(t ) P(t )
=

dt
B
C

(2)

After a certain number of transformations of (2) we can substitute it into the equation (1) and
obtain the following second order differential equation for P(t ) :

d 2P
1 1 dP 1 1 1
1G
+( + )
+ ( + ) P(t ) =
2
C B dt B C A
B A
dt

(3)

Equation (3) can be solved by finding a general solution to the homogeneous differential
equation and partial solution for inhomogeneous one derived from (3).
1. The homogeneous differential equation is:
d P
1 1 dP 1 1 1
+( + )
+ ( + ) P(t ) = 0
2
C B dt B C A
dt
2

(4)

Substituting P(t ) = e at and multiplying the right-hand side of equation (4) by ABC , we will
receive:

( ABCa 2 + A( B + C )a + ( A + C ))e at = 0
The solutions for (5) are:
a1, 2 =

A( B + C ) A 2 ( B C ) 2 4 ABC 2
2 ABC

(5)

(6)

For the positive discriminant in (6), the solution of equation (4) has the following form:
(7)
P(t ) = D1e a1t + D2 e a2t
where: D1 and D2 are arbitrary constants.
If the discriminant in equations (6) has a negative value, then the system experiences an
oscillation. For this case, the following function provides the solution to (4):

P(t ) = C1e kt cos( wt ) + C2 e kt sin( wt )

(8)

where: C1 and C2 are arbitrary constants, and

(B + C)
k=
2 BC

A 2 ( B C ) 2 + 4 ABC 2
w=
2 ABC

(9)

2. The inhomogeneous differential equation:

The partial solution for the inhomogeneous equation is a constant C 0 which satisfies equation
(3).
By differentiating (3), we will find the value of C 0 :
G
(10)
C0 =
1+ A
C
Thus, the general solution for equation (3) is the sum of expressions (7) and (10) for the
positive discriminant, or (8) and (10) for the negative discriminant.

In order to determine the constants D1 and D2 or C1 and C2 we need to explode the initial
conditions for t = 0 , which leads to:
For the positive discriminant:
P(0) = D1 + D2 + C 0

dP
dt

(11)

= D1 a1 + D2 a 2
t =0

For the negative discriminant:

P(0) = C1 + C 0 = C1 +

dP
dt

G
1+ A

C
(12)

= C 2 w + C1k
t =0

Through substitution in equations (11) and (12) we will find the following expressions for D1
and D2 or C1 and C2 :
For the positive discriminant:

1 dP

D1 =
a 2 P(0) + a 2 C0
a1 a 2 dt t =0

D2 =

1 dP

a2 a1 dt

t =0

a1 P(0) + a1 C0

For the negative discriminant:

G
C1 = P(0) C 0 = P(0)
1+ A

C2 =

1 dP

w dt

t =0

(13)

C1 k

(14)

Now, we are ready to solve this exercise numerically for A=1 and 10 years.
For A=1 year:
From (6): a1, 2 =

6 84
,
10

i.e. an oscillation is undergone by the system. Then, to find P(t ) we need to refer to equation
(8), where:

84
= 0.92
10
To determine C1 and C2 , we calculate C 0 using equation (10):
40
C0 =
= 33.33
1+ 1
5
Given the values of P(0) , C 0 , w and k , the parameters C1 and C2 from (14) will be
determined as follows:
k = 0.6

w=

C1 = 30 33.33 = 3.33

1 dP

C2 =
2
0.92 dt t =0

From equation (2) we can find the value of the derivative of P(t ) at the initial moment t = 0 :
dP
10 30
=
=4
dt t =0 1 5
Hence, we will calculate: C2 = 2.17.
Substituting the obtained parameters into equation (8) and summing up the solutions of (8)
and (10), we will determine the solution for P(t ) :

P(t ) = 33.33 3.33e 0.6t cos(0.92t ) + 2.17e 0.6t sin(0.92t )

Graph for P
40

30

20
0

P : Current

8
12
Time (Year)

16
empl/Year

Figure 1-2. Number of employees as a function of time (for A = 1 year).

For A=10 years:

From (6): a1, 2 =

6 6
,
10

20

i.e. the system does not go through oscillations.

From (10): C 0 =

40
= 13.33
1 + 10
5

Substituting a1 and a 2 in expressions (13), we will receive:

D1 =

D2 =

dP
1

0.36 + 0.84 dt
dP
1

0.84 + 0.36 dt

t =0

+ 0.84 P(0) 0.84 13.33

t =0

+ 0.36 P(0) 0.36 13.33

The initial values of P(t ) and its derivative are the same as for A=1 year, i.e. P(0) = 30 and
dP
= 4.
dt t =0
Hence, we will calculate D1 and D2 as:

D1 = 37.51
D2 = 20.84
Thus, joining the solutions for equations (7) and (10), the solution for P(t ) will be the
following:
P(t ) = 13.33 + 37.51e 0.36t 20.84e 0.84t .

Graph for P
40

20

0
0

8
12
Time (Year)

P : Current

16
empl/Year

Figure 1-3. Number of workers in time (for A = 10 years).

b) Which values of A result in an oscillating system?

20

If the discriminant in equations (6) is negative, then the system experiences an oscillation.
For this case, A should satisfy the following inequality:
A 2 ( B C ) 2 4 ABC 2 < 0
Since A < 0 is unrealistic, the only possible solution is:
4 BC 2
A<
(B C) 2

A < 6.25

c) If we want to limit overshoot to a maximum of 1 employee, what is the best

choice for A?
The point of a maximal overshoot is defined by the maximal value of P(t ) . At this point the
first derivative of P(t ) is equal to 0, and the second one is negative.
To determine the derivatives, we need to consider the function P(t ) corresponding to
oscillating behavior:
P(t ) = C 0 + C1e kt cos( wt ) + C 2 e kt sin( wt )
(see exercise 1.a).

P(t ) = e kt ((C1k + C2 w) cos( wt ) + (C2 k C1 w) sin( wt )) = 0

P(t ) = e kt ((2C2 kw + C1 (k 2 w 2 )) cos( wt ) + (2C1kw + C2 (k 2 w 2 )) sin( wt )) < 0
The solution of the above mentioned formulas will be:

C k + C 2 w
1
t * = arctg 1
+
w
C1 w C 2 k

C1 2 + C2 2 kt *
*
*

Hence, Pmax = P(t ) = C0 + w

C k + C w e sin(wt )
2
1

Since the overshoot shows the difference between Pmax and P() , the maximal overshoot is
equal to:

C 2 + C2 2 kt *
e sin(wt * )
Overshoot = w 1

C1k + C2 w
Setting the overshoot to 1 and using equations (9), (10) and (14) yield a non-linear equation
for A. This equation can be solved numerically by Mathematica for Windows 5.1, resulting in
A=0.840691 years.

d) Determine the function describing the number of employees in training in case

of A=1 year?
The number of employees in training is described by the following equation, derived from
equation (2) (exercise 1.a):

 dP P(t )
O(t ) = B
+

C
dt
Next, we need to substitute the values of P(t ) and its derivative, obtained for A=1 year in
exercise 1.a and 1.c. The final expression O (t ) is:

O(t ) = 6.67 + 3.33e 0.6t cos(0.92t ) + 2.18e 0.6t sin(0.92t )

Graph for O
10

6
0

O : Current
Figure 1-4. Number of trainees in time.

8
12
Time (Year)

16

20