Reliability

Reliability is defined in terms of probability, probabilistic parameters such as random

variables, density functions, and distribution functions are utilized in the development of
reliability theory. Reliability studies are concerned with both discrete and continuous random
variables. An example of a discrete variable is the number of failures in a given interval of
time. Examples of continuous random variables are the time from part installation to failure
and the time between successive equipment failures [1]. For power system, we indeed
concern on the two aspects of reliability which are the security and the dependability.
Security related to the reliability as the protection equipment must operate at maximum
condition and respond to any mal-operations that may risk the whole substation system.
Meanwhile for dependability, the protection system installed must ensure the respective
protection equipment operates at the best condition to clear all fault so that we can conclude
that whole protection system is dependable.
A few researchers came out with the new and better method in analysing and
calculating the reliability of protection systems. As for this time being, we have three
methods to analyse the reliability of a system. For this project, we further the study on the
reliability of protection scheme of distribution transformer using Fault Tree Analysis. For
general distribution system, we measured the typical reliability parameters which are the
Mean Time to Repair (MTTR), the Mean Time between Failures (MTBF) and the
percentage of availability [1].
Mean Time to Repair or MTTR is basically the average time to repair any system or
division after a failure [1]. This can be done by calculating based on the total number of
faults detected by self-checked and the time of each fault to restore.

For Mean Time between Failure, (MTBF), we will calculate the duration time for a device
to fail and the average devices involve i.e. if MTTF=100 years, on an average one of 100
devices will fail in a year in a power system. Once we get the value of MTBF, we can
determine the reliability which is the time function as R= 1-(1/MTBF) [1].
It is anticipated that in the period of 30 years of a protective device's lifetime, the
aggregate operating time is simply a few seconds to a few minutes, hinging on the velocity of
the exact sort. In general, protective systems have more terrific than 99% reliability [1].
We have a number of protective devices such as circuit breakers, reclosers, fuses and
switches to protect our power system. For every device that has been invented, we always
expect the respective devices to response as optimal as they can to clear any fault at any
condition. In another word, the shorter the time for the devices to clear the fault, the higher
the reliability percentage of the system is [1].

Fault Tree Analysis

Fault tree analysis is an evolution of analytical tool for calculating the reliability of a
protection system. H. A. Watson of Bell Telephone Laboratories first invented fault tree
analysis in 1961 in connection Fault-Tree Classification with a US Air Force contract to
study the Minuteman Missile launch control system. In 1965, the research sponsored by the
University of Washington and the Boeing Company had become everyones attention in
using the method to have a safer and more reliable systems. Many have implemented this
method to obtain the reliability information of a particular complex system [2].
Generally, fault tree analysis consists of a structured logic diagram where it is
originally converted from a physical block diagram that will eventually lead to one top event
of interest. As per the name of logic diagram, logic gates are used to construct the diagram.
Commonly, we used AND and OR gates in the diagram but occasionally NOT gates are also
used. A fault tree analysis includes of four basic steps as below [3]:
i.

System definition

ii.

Fault tree construction

iii.

Qualitative evaluation

iv.

Quantitative evaluation
System definition is where the undesired event is determined. Undesired event is the

failure state of a system. To complete the first step, we need to identify the component
operating and failures modes where we examine how the output condition of a particular
component was affected by the input states and the components operational modes. On top
of that, the chart of the system is needed to show the relation of each component to each
other. System boundary conditions are also important as they outline the situation for which
the fault tree is to be drawn [3].

After the system is defined, we then continue to the fault tree construction, which this
part might be a little bit complicated and time consuming. For the construction of the fault
tree, the methodologies are contradictory in the component modeling and in their objectives.
Table 1 shows a literature of tree construction techniques.
Devisor

Technique used

David Haasl

Structuring Process

J.B Fusell

Synthetic Tree Model

(DRAFT Code)

Powers & Tompkins

Method For Automated Fault

Tree Construction

Salem et alii

Computer Automated Tree

(CAT)

Lapp & Powers

Computer Aided Synthesis

Camarda et alii

Efficient Algorithm

Taylor & Hollo

Cause-Consequence Diagram
(CCD).

Table 1: Literature of tree construction techniques [3]

In Table 1, David designed a structure to determine the type of the gate need to use
and the gate inputs. Followed by J.B. Fusell where a computer code for electrical systems is
invented. For chemical systems, Powers and Tompkins designed a method for automated
fault-tree construction method. Later, Salem, Apostolakis and Okrent devised a Computer
Automated Tree code as a solution for modelling nuclear and other complex systems. After
that, an efficient algorithm for fault tree automatic synthesis for large systems was introduced
by Camarda et alli using reliability graph. Taylor and Holio constructed Cause-Consequence

Diagram (CCD) by extending the fault tree methodology for better explanation of continuous
effects of accident chains [3].

Lastly, we can evaluate the fault tree which can be qualitative, quantitative or both.
The evaluation is made based on the scope of the analysis. Qualitative fault-tree analysis
consists of determining the minimal cut sets & minimal path sets and the common cause
failures. Meanwhile for quantitative evaluation of a fault tree, the key is to find the structural
illustration of the top event in terms of the basic events [3].
We then determine the outcome the minimal cut sets which they are in terms of the
basic events. Finding the minimal cut sets is one way of accomplishing this step. If the rate of
occurrence and fault duration for all basic events are known, (or assumed), then the statistical
expectation or probability of the top event can be determined [3].
For this project, we use fault tree analysis to determine the reliability of a distribution
transformer protection scheme. This method is not only limited to power system protection
only as fault-tree analysis is a versatile tool that has rapidly won favor with those involved in
reliability and safety calculations. As for example, fault tree analysis had been used to
formalize risk assessment in a Closed Circuit Rebreathers [4]. Besides that, fault tree analysis
is also used to evaluate the overall reliability of a railway traction power supply system.
Through fault tree analysis, a traction power system is logically expressed by structurally
interrelated components and its overall reliability is calculated by known reliability functions
of components [5].

Reliability Block Diagram and Markov Model

In measuring reliability of a protection system, the method used is not limited to fault
tree analysis only. Reliability Block Diagram designed by Anderson in 1984 concluded that
the redundancy was one of the main factors in determining the availability of a particular
protection system. Basically, there is not much different between Fault Tree Analysis and
Reliability Block Diagram. Reliability Block Diagram uses simple blocks to represent the
connection between each event meanwhile in Fault Tree Analysis like I mentioned before,
uses logic gates to connect each event for a relative system [6].

Later in 1992, Anderson collaborated with Agarwal and developed Markov Model.
This model determined the unavailability of protection system. On top of that, Markov Model
applied redundancy of the protective relays and the optimal time for the protection devices
testing was suggested. Fundamentally, Markov model provides an alternative solution for a
complex system by establishing a state of the system and then producing a transition to a new
state. In another word, this type of model concludes that the transition depends on the
parameters of current state where the previous history of the system up to that point does not
affect the transition [6].

Distribution Transformer
In power distribution system, we have power transformers, distribution transformers
and autotransformers. As for this project, the main idea focuses on distribution transformer
only. In Tenaga Nasional Berhad Distribution system, distribution system operates below 66
kV (33kV, 22kV, 11kV, 6.6kV and 415V). Distribution transformers supply 300 kVA, 500
kVA, 750 kVA and 1000 kVA of loads to the consumers.

A transformer consists of windings and cores. For the windings of transformer, the
primary and secondary windings are made of conducting and low resistance material like
copper and aluminium. As for the cores in transformer, we use magnetically permeable
materials such as steels and amorphous materials. For both windings and core, they do
produced losses, which will affect the output of the power distributed [7].
There are three basic components in a protection system that is the sensing devices
(current transformer, voltage transformer), relay and circuit breaker. Current transformer and
voltage transformer are classified as sensing the devices as they act as measuring tools to
detect any fault. They usually come with meters and relays. For the circuit breaker, the
purpose of the component is definitely for breaking the circuit when the relay sends a signal
which indicates the occurrence of fault. Despite the two main components, relay plays an
important role for the whole system as a decision maker whether to trip the system or vice
versa. Relay will be discussed in details in the next topic [7].

Relay
As mentioned before, relay acts as a decision maker for the protection system to
decide whether to trip the circuit or not. A protective relay is designed to calculate operating
conditions on an electrical circuit and trip circuit breakers when a fault is detected. Relay
needs to be sensitive, selective and fast when clearing the undesired fault. For TNBT system,
they use overcurrent relay as their transformers protective relay. In general, overcurrent relay
is designed to operate when more than a fixed amount of current flows into a particular part
of the power system. Overcurrent relay is divided into two categories; the instantaneous type
and the time delay type [7].
Instantaneous overcurrent relay is composed to work with no deliberate time delay
when the current overwhelmed the relay setting. The operating time may be varying
considerably, from 0.016 seconds to 0.4 seconds. This type of overcurrent relay can be used
only when the short circuit current is much higher than the current under any other condition
as for an example, motor starting. It is basically used for faults close to the source when the
fault current is very high [7].
Time delay or time Overcurrent Relay operates with a time delay where the delay
time is preset. For a particular setting, the actual time delay depends on the current through
the relay coil. Overall, higher current will cause a faster operation of the relay. On top of that,
the minimum current at which the relay operates or called pick-up current is also amendable
[7].

Research shows that for the last 15 years, about 450 units of distribution transformer
failed to operate in advance. Distribution transformer is one of the main important
components in providing power supply to the consumers. If case mentioned above tends to
happen frequently, no doubt the consumers will lost their trust towards Tenaga Nasional
Berhad which is the main power company in Malaysia. Thus, it will be a good opportunity to
perform a study on reliability for distribution transformer to help the Tenaga Nasional Berhad
Distribution to further analyse the reliability of the respective transformers [8].

Plan and Progress of the Project

Later for the project will be the design for the protection scheme block diagram where
the type of transformer protection scheme applied for this project had been mentioned in the
project proposal. Related data will be collected to perform the analysis. On top of that, the the
data obtained will be simulated using Reliability Workbench incorporating Fault Tree+
Isograph Software.

ECRB412

FINAL YEAR PROJECT 1

PROGRESS REPORT 1

TITLE:
DEVELOPMENT OF RELIABILITY MODEL FOR
DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMER PROTECTION
SCHEME USING FAULT TREE ANALYSIS

REPORTING PERIOD : 19/06/2012 16/07/2012

TH

SUBMITTAL DATE

: 16

JULY 2012

AUTHOR

: NUR SYAZWANI BINTI ALIAS

ID NO.

: EP083925

SUPERVISOR

: BAHISHAM BTE. YUNUS,

ASSOC.PROF.DR
SUBJECT

: LITERATURE REVIEW OF THE

PROJECT

References
[1]

Dan Zhu, Power system reliability analysis with distributed generators, M.S. thesis,
Dept. Elect. Eng., Virginia Poly, Inst. And State Univ., Blacksburg, VA, 2003.

[2]

David F, Haasl Advanced concepts in fault tree analysis, presented at the

System Safety Symposium., Seattle, WP, 1965.

[3]

W.S. Lee, D.L Grosh, F.A Tillman, C.H Lie, Fault tree methods and analysis,
IEEE Trans. Rel, vol. R-34, no. 3, Aug. 1985.

[4]

Dr. S. Tetlow and S. Jenkins, The use of fault tree analysis to visualise the
importance of human factors for safe diving with closed-circuit rebreathers (CCR).
International Journal of the Society for Underwater Technology, Vol 26, No 3, 2005.

[5]

Chen, S. K. and Ho, T. K. and Mao, B. H. (2007) Reliability evaluations of railway

power supplies by fault tree analysis. IET Electric PowerApplications, 1(2). p. 161.

[6]

Z.Li, Z. Wu, Y. He, and C. Fulei. Hidden markov model-based fault diagnostics
method in speed-up and speed-down process for rotqting machinery. In A new
bearing fault detection and diagnostic scheme based on hidden Markov modelling of
vibration signals, volume 19, pages 329-339. Elsevier, 2005.

[7]

J.J. Burke, Electrical Power Distribution, in Power Distribution Engineering:

Fundamentals and Applications, Ed. New York: M. Dekker, 1994.

[8]

M.I. Ridwan, M.R. Samsuddin, Y.Z.Y. Ghazali Reliability of analysis of premature

failed 11/0.433kV hermitically sealed distribution trasnformers, IEEE Colloquium
on Humanities,Sci. and Eng. Research (CHUSER 2011), pp. 1, Dec. 2011.