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Study #2118
May 25-29, 2015
4,161 contacts weighted by age, sex, and
congressional district to conform to active voters
in the Iowa voter registration list
Yes
No
Not sure
Continue
Terminate
How likely is it you will attend one of the caucuses scheduled for February of 2016will you definitely attend,
probably attend, or probably not attend? (If definitely or probably attend, ask:) Will you attend the
Democratic or the Republican caucus?
39
61
-
Continue
Terminate
Have you attended caucuses in the past or will this be your first caucus? (If attended in past, ask:) Was that a
Republican caucus, a Democratic caucus or both?
3
68
9
18
1
Now, Im going to mention some prominent Democrats, including people talked about as possible candidates for
the Democratic nomination for president. For each, please tell me if your feelings are very favorable, mostly
favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you dont know enough about the person to answer, just say
so. (Record dont know as not sure. Rotate list, but Obama always goes first.)
Fav
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
F.
G.
Unf
Very
Favorable
Mostly
Favorable
Mostly
Unfavorable
Very
Unfavorable
Not
Sure
May-15
Jan-15
89
49
40
86
13
49
37
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
76
20
22
54
14
78
60
20
34
25
15
53
45
14
19
6
15
2
6
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
86*
12*
39
46
84
76
15
19
46
43
38
33
7
8
8
11
1
5
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
20*
17
72
13
13
9
9
2
2
11
11
6
7
3
2
78
78
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
47
12
23
24
41
37
29
12
13
17
10
20
19
8
8
4
5
51
58
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
62
31
31
28
58
44
11
11
30
23
28
21
6
6
5
5
31
45
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
22
19
69
3
1
18
15
8
8
3
4
68
72
21
16
9*
11
12
*We are most confident that the net favorable and unfavorable numbers in the first two columns are the
best estimate. Because of rounding, those numbers occasionally do not reflect the sum of the very/mostly
favorable or the very/mostly unfavorable.
Which one of the following Democrats would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted or Not sure in first choice, code second choice as
No first choice and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
Joe Biden
Hillary Clinton
Martin OMalley
Bernie Sanders
Jim Webb
Uncommitted (VOLonly if respondent
says the word uncommitted.)
First
Second
Combined
8
57
2
16
2
31
15
3
13
5
39
72
5*
29
7
12
Not sure
8
13
No first choice
N/A
14
*Combined does not match the following ever/never support question for certain candidates due to rounding.
Which one of the following Democrats would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted or Not sure in first choice, code second choice as
No first choice and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
First
Joe Biden
Hillary Clinton
Martin OMalley
Bernie Sanders
Jim Webb
Uncommitted (VOLonly if respondent
says the word uncommitted.)
Not sure
No first choice
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
Second
Combined
31
39
9
9
26
19
35
28
57
15
72
56
53
15
15
71
68
5*
1
-
3
1
4
1
16
13
29
5
3
6
4
11
7
3
1
6
2
9
3
12
4
3
3
N/A
13
6
12
8
5
N/A
14
N/A
N/A
10
15
*Combined does not match the following ever/never support question for certain candidates due to rounding.
(Ask only for each candidate NOT answered as first or second choice in horserace.] Im going to mention the
Democrats who are not your first or second choice. For each, please tell me if you think you could ever support the
person for president or would never support the person for president. (Read appropriate names. Use same
rotation as horserace question. If selected as first or second choice in horserace, code AC=4 and do not ask.)
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
Joe Biden
Hillary Clinton
Martin OMalley
Bernie Sanders
Jim Webb
Ever
Never
Not sure
1st or 2nd
choice in
Q.6a/b
37
16
34
23
32
15
9
13
18
13
10
3
48
30
47
39
72
6
29
7
Elizabeth
Warren
Neither
(VOL)
Not
sure
48
37
12
52
26
18
Regardless of whom you plan to support in the Democratic caucuses, who better represents your political
beliefs, Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders?
Hillary
Clinton
May-15
58
Bernie
Sanders
26
Neither
(VOL)
Not
sure
13
Im going to mention things about Hillary Clinton that have been in the news recently. For each, please tell me
if this is something that bothers you or notjust answer yes or no. (Rotate list.)
Im going to mention those news items again. This time, please tell me if you think this will or will not hurt
Hillary Clinton in the general election if she is the nominee. Just answer yes or no. (Mark all yeses. Multiple
responses accepted, so total may exceed 100%.)
A.
B.
C.
Not
Sure
Will hurt in
general
election
Bothers
Does not
bother
20
78
41
20
73
39
27
70
37
34
[Ask all.]
When you think about the controversies surrounding Bill and Hillary Clinton, do you tend to think they just get
a bad rap, or do you think they have shown a pattern of unethical behavior? (Rotate answer options.)
71
14
14
Bad rap
Have shown a pattern of unethical behavior
Not sure