Escolar Documentos
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Cultura Documentos
ECB Financial
Stability Review
May 2015
28 May 2015
Rubric
Recent developments
28
0.7
November FSR
24
0.6
20
0.5
16
0.4
12
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15
0.0
Rubric
Recent developments
9
November FSR
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
2008
0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Main
Rubric risks for the euro area financial system
Rubric
Main risks and vulnerabilities
Risk 1 - Abrupt reversal of compressed global risk premia amplified by low
secondary market liquidity
Stock prices broadly in line with fundamentals in the
euro area, valuations somewhat stretched for US stock
prices
(Jan. 1983 - May 2015, yellow shaded area represents the
25-75 percentiles)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
Note: Valuation estimates for residential property prices are based on four
different valuation methods: price-to-rent ratio, price-to-income ratio and two
model-based methods. For details of the methodology, see Box 3 in ECB,
Financial Stability Review, June 2011. For further details on valuation estimates
for prime commercial property, see Box 6 in ECB, Financial Stability Review,
December 2011.
.
Rubric
Main risks and vulnerabilities
Risk 2 - Weak profitability prospects for banks and insurers in a low nominal
growth environment, amid slow progress in resolving problem assets
while the cyclical downturn in certain areas has
contributed to a high outstanding stock of nonperforming assets
(2006 2014; annual percentage changes (GDP); median
NPLs as a share of total loans, median ROE, vulnerable
countries)
20
15
20
15
10
10
2
5
0
5
0
-5
-5
-2
-2
-10
-10
-4
-15
-20
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
-6
-20
-6
2006
-4
-15
2006
2014
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Rubric
Main risks and vulnerabilities
Risk 2 - Weak profitability prospects for banks and insurers in a low nominal
growth environment, amid slow progress in resolving problem assets
Currently, EU bank profitability is mainly being
suppressed by weak cyclical factors
CR5 (+)
Herfindahl
index (+)
EU banks 2013
size (-)
200
2013 average
US banks 2013
CR5 (+)
250
200
150
100
LLP over total
loans (-)
50
credit over
GDP (+)
100
50
0
-50
-50
-100
credit over
GDP (+)
real GDP
growth (+)
real GDP
growth (+)
inefficiency (-)
diversification
(-)
diversification
(-)
inefficiency (-)
size (-)
300
Rubric
Main risks and vulnerabilities
Risk 2 - Weak profitability prospects for banks and insurers in a low nominal
growth environment, amid slow progress in resolving problem assets
Slightly higher valuations of euro area banks in 2015,
but they still trade at a discount vis--vis their US peers
(Jan. 2007 May 2015, grey shaded area represents the
difference between United States and the euro area)
median COE
median ROE
euro area
United States
3.0
25
20
2.5
15
2.0
10
5
1.5
0
1.0
-5
-10
0.5
-15
-20
0.0
-0.5
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Note: Cost of equity (COE) and return on equity (ROE) for a large sample
of listed euro area banks. Based on the sample of 33 euro area banks
included in the Euro STOXX index.
8
2014
2015
Rubric
Main risks and vulnerabilities
Risk 2 - Weak profitability prospects for banks and insurers in a low nominal
growth environment, amid slow progress in resolving problem assets
Despite the challenging environment, market-based
indicators suggest a stable outlook for euro area
insurers
(Q1 2002 2016)
2011
2012
2013
2014
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Rubric
Main risks and vulnerabilities
Risk 3 - Rise of debt sustainability concerns in the sovereign and corporate
sectors amid low nominal growth
Euro area debt remains elevated also in the private
sector
(2000 2014; Debt as a percentage of GDP)
households
non-financial corporations
government
25
Gross financing needs
120
IT
20
ES
FR
15
100
PT
80
BE
EA
NL
10
SK
LT
5
LV
FI DE
60
SI
GR
AT
40
MT
IE
20
LU
0
0
50
100
150
Gross general government debt
200
0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Rubric
Main risks and vulnerabilities
Risk 4 - Prospective stress and contagion effects in a rapidly growing shadow
banking sector
Steady increase in the euro shadow banking sector
suggests that vulnerabilities are likely to have been
growing more in this segment
(Q4 2008 Q4 2014; index: Q4 2008 = 100)
5.0
4.5
banks
Bond funds
3.0 trillion
4.0
Shares issued to liquid assets
260
220
180
140
100
60
20
2008
Real estate
funds
0.4 trillion
3.5
3.0
MMFs
0.9 trillion
2.5
2.0
2010
2011
2012
2013
1.0
0.0
1.00
2014
Mixed funds
2.1 trillion
1.5
0.5
2009
Hedge funds
0.2 trillion
Equity funds
2.3 trillion
Other funds
0.5 trillion
1.10
1.20
1.30
Leverage
Note: Liquidity mismatch and leverage among euro area money market
and investment funds. Bubble size: total assets in EUR trillions
11
Rubric
Conclusions
Euro area systemic stress contained but with vulnerabilities
Downside risks to economic growth have receded
and asset prices have increased over the past six months but still without
generalised overvaluations
while lower-than-average turnover ratios and deal sizes imply high price
sensitivity to market shocks
Market-intermediated credit rather abundant and available on rather
generous terms
Several policy challenges
The need for a strict focus of the ECB's monetary policy on its price stability
mandate, together with country and sector challenges, suggests a strong role
for macroprudential policy in dealing with any systemic risk related to
potential asset price imbalances
Further initiatives needed to monitor and assess vulnerabilities in the growing
shadow banking sector
Banks balance sheets strengthened further but combination of cyclical and
structural challenges to profitability needs to be tackled
Public and private debt ratios still high and in need of correction with potential
sustainability challenges if higher nominal growth not sustained
12