Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
EQUITY MARKETS WEEKLY
UKRAINE, KYIV
FEBRUARY 2, 2010
RESEARCH@ART‐CAPITAL.COM.UA
+38 (044) 490‐51‐85
World Equity Indices
UX Broke Up with the World Indices
Index Country WOW,% MTD,% YTD,%
Dow Jones Indus. USA 1,17 1,17 1,17 Ukrainian Market
S&P 500 USA 1,43 1,43 1,43
Nasdaq Comp USA 1,11 Last week Ukrainian Stock Exchange increased by 4.48% to 1671.77
1,11 1,11
DAX30 Germany 0,81 0,81 0,81
points. Trading volumes were quite high mainly due to activity
FTSE-100 Great Britain 1,14 1,14 1,14
NIKKEI-225 Japan 0,07 upon Ukrnafta shares (UNAF +15.32%) – hoping to get dividends
0,07 0,07
RTS Russia -0,20 -0,20 -0,20
WSE WIG Poland -0,56
on January 29, players actively bought paper on the rumours about
-0,80 -0,80
Prague Stock Ex. Czech Repub 1,00 closing the registry on January 28. This race later culminated into
1,00 1,00
PFTS Ukraine -0,63 -0,63 -0,63
Ukraine -0,79
the big sale on Thursday‐Friday. Nevertheless, positive
-0,79 -0,79
UX
developments have taken place around the same Ukrnafta. First,
Commodities and Currencies the conflict between the state and minority shareholders was
finally resolved (in the future annual dividend payments are
DTD,% WTD,% MTD,% YTD,%
expected). Secondly, the conflict over the ownership of 7 billion
Gold 1,70 1,70 0,26 24,82
Brent Crude Oil 2,11 2,11 ‐6,99 22,14 cubic meters of gas (about $ 2.6 billion) was settled in favour of
EUR/USD 0,38 0,38 ‐2,86 ‐0,42 the company ‐ the Kiev Economic Court ordered Ukrtransgaz to
make a contract with Ukrnafta under the deposit of 7 billion cubic
Currency Exchange Rate meters of gas in the underground storage facilities, thereby
acknowledging ownership after the last one. On the other hand,
880
UAH/100 USD the consolidation of control over Ukrnafta by "Privat" group with
860 the signing of the shareholders' agreement may lead to further
Ukrnafta’s income "washing out" in favour of the group because of
840
Privat’s reluctance to share dividends with NAK Naftogaz.
820 Among the other significant events the following should be noted:
In April‐May 2010, Ukraine plans to enter the market of foreign
800
loans, said yesterday the Minister of Finance Igor Umansky. It will
Official echange rate
780
Interbank (bid)
be possible after the adoption of the law On State Budget for 2010,
Interbank (ask) which will determine the potential volume of the loan, he said.
760
16.09.2009 16.10.2009 16.11.2009 16.12.2009 16.01.2010
Azovmash (MZVM +1.89% and AZGM unch) in the coming months
will deliver Ilyich Iron & Steel Works of Mariupol equipment,
UX Index
including converter, blast furnace and steelmaking shops. In
particular, on Monday a contract of 160‐ton converter
80 1800
Volume, mln UX components supply was signed, and the last week ‐ three charging
UAH
70 1575 devices (diameter 4.2 m, 4.7 and 5.4 m), seven steel ladles and a
60 1350
slag was ordered. The company’s press service reminded that the
Ilyich Iron & Steel Works of Mariupol is Azovmash’s long‐time
50 1125 partner and noted that the company has already begun to
40 900 manufacture equipment under the contract signed on Wednesday,
which cost is not disclosed. News is positive for Mariupol Heavy
30 675
Engineering Plant (MZVM), since it is engaged in manufacturing of
20 450 steel equipment.
10 225 Although UX moved counter to the world's major stock indices
mainly on the domestic news, the main focus for local areas will
0 0
continue to be the world situation.
02.04.2009
24.04.2009
20.05.2009
11.06.2009
03.07.2009
24.07.2009
14.08.2009
07.09.2009
28.09.2009
19.10.2009
09.11.2009
30.11.2009
21.12.2009
15.01.2010
Good luck!
Stanislav Zelenetskiy zelenetskiy@art‐capital.com.ua
EQUITY MARKETS WEEKLY
UKRAINE, KYIV
FEBRUARY 2, 2010
RESEARCH@ART‐CAPITAL.COM.UA
+38 (044) 490‐51‐85
Most liquid shares
Average
Ticker Price, WOW,% MTD,% YTD,%
ALMK 0,22 -0,69 6,88 57,66
AVDK 11,51 0,09 1,23 9,10
AZST 3,39 0,59 3,13 25,56
BAVL 0,27 1,48 5,14 8,11
CEEN 10,05 0,00 1,11 5,79
ENMZ 210,40 0,18 3,52 24,51
FORM 7,25 1,12 12,23 20,83
MSICH 1847,00 1,51 6,15 12,01
SMASH 70,00 0,85 0,84 25,67
STIR 49,98 -1,79 -0,52 4,56
UNAF 198,99 -7,03 7,21 18,07
USCB 0,37 -0,43 0,95 5,34
UTLM 0,45 -0,88 -0,22 0,90
YASK 4,00 0,25 4,44 27,39
ZAEN 331,00 0,30 2,48 0,67
Top Gainers, Losers, Most Actively Traded (25.01.10)
Most Actively Traded, UAH ths
ALMK 2088,7
AVDK 2352,1
AZST 2437,8
ENMZ 3424,9
UNAF 4264,2
Top Gainers, UAH ths
FORM 1,1%
BAVL 1,5%
MSICH 1,5%
SHCHZ 1,6%
SVGZ 2,2%
Top Losers, UAH ths
DOEN 1,4%
MZVM 1,5%
STIR 1,8%
LTPL 1,8%
UNAF 7,0%
ART‐CAPITAL Equity Markets Weekly February 2, 2010
Weekly Forecasts
Chart 1. UX weekly chart
Source: Art‐Capital
Last week Ukrainian Stock Exchange increased by 4.48% to 1671.77 points. We saw another unsuccessful attempt of
the index to entrench in the long‐term uptrend, as well as to break the level of 50% correction of January 2008 (see
weekly chart).
On the daily chart it is shown how UX rested against the1682 points, while on Friday we saw the so‐called candle
"hanging man", which usually signs the end of an upward trend.
As a result we still remain short‐term "bears".
WWW.ART‐CAPITAL.COM.UA
ART‐CAPITAL Equity Markets Weekly February 2, 2010
Weekly Forecasts
Chart 2. UX Daily chart
Source: Art‐Capital
Stanislav Zelenetskiy
Analyst
zelenetskiy@art‐capital.com.ua
WWW.ART‐CAPITAL.COM.UA
Volume, mln
0,0
2,5
5,0
7,5
10,0
12,5
15,0
17,5
20,0
22,5
25,0
27,5
30,0
32,5
35,0
37,5
40,0
42,5
45,0
47,5
50,0
52,5
55,0
57,5
60,0
62,5
65,0
67,5
70,0
72,5
75,0
77,5
80,0
82,5
85,0
87,5
90,0
92,5
95,0
97,5
100,0
28.09.2009
29.09.2009
ART‐CAPITAL
30.09.2009
01.10.2009
02.10.2009
05.10.2009
06.10.2009
07.10.2009
08.10.2009
09.10.2009
12.10.2009
13.10.2009
14.10.2009
WWW.ART‐CAPITAL.COM.UA
15.10.2009
16.10.2009
19.10.2009
20.10.2009
21.10.2009
22.10.2009
23.10.2009
26.10.2009
27.10.2009
28.10.2009
29.10.2009
30.10.2009
02.11.2009
03.11.2009
04.11.2009
Weekly Forecasts
05.11.2009
06.11.2009
09.11.2009
10.11.2009
11.11.2009
12.11.2009
13.11.2009
16.11.2009
17.11.2009
18.11.2009
19.11.2009
20.11.2009
23.11.2009
24.11.2009
25.11.2009
26.11.2009
27.11.2009
30.11.2009
01.12.2009
02.12.2009
03.12.2009
04.12.2009
07.12.2009
08.12.2009
Equity Markets Weekly
09.12.2009
10.12.2009
11.12.2009
14.12.2009
15.12.2009
16.12.2009
17.12.2009
18.12.2009
21.12.2009
22.12.2009
23.12.2009
24.12.2009
25.12.2009
28.12.2009
29.12.2009
30.12.2009
31.12.2009
05.01.2010
06.01.2010
11.01.2010
12.01.2010
13.01.2010
14.01.2010
15.01.2010
18.01.2010
19.01.2010
20.01.2010
21.01.2010
22.01.2010
25.01.2010
26.01.2010
27.01.2010
28.01.2010
29.01.2010
01.02.2010
800
820
840
860
880
900
920
940
960
980
1000
1020
1040
1060
1080
1100
1120
1140
1160
1180
1200
1220
1240
1260
1280
1300
1320
1340
1360
1380
1400
1420
1440
1460
1480
1500
1520
1540
1560
1580
1600
1620
1640
1660
1680
1700
February 2, 2010
UX Index
ART‐CAPITAL Equity Markets Weekly February 2, 2010
World Indices’ Dynamic
Developed Market Equities 5 Days,% 1 Month,% 3 Month,% 6 Month,% 9 Month,% 1 Year,%
World Market Capitalization ‐1,72 ‐4,11 2,39 7,14 27,02 44,00
Dow Jones Indus. USA ‐0,49 ‐2,33 4,23 9,75 21,11 23,15
S&P 500 USA ‐0,76 ‐2,32 4,19 8,62 20,04 25,21
Nasdaq Comp USA ‐2,26 ‐4,32 5,54 8,94 26,51 36,42
DJ EuroStoxx 50 Europe 0,21 ‐5,79 2,99 5,68 16,09 18,92
FTSE‐100 Great Britain 0,57 ‐3,06 4,17 12,92 19,30 21,82
DAX‐30 Germany 0,20 ‐5,09 5,63 5,63 17,70 21,16
Swiss Market Index Switzerland 0,36 ‐0,76 4,55 9,89 21,98 25,93
Nikkei‐225 Japan ‐0,46 ‐3,24 4,10 ‐0,46 8,73 28,06
Hang Seng Hong Kong 1,05 ‐7,45 ‐4,69 ‐1,22 17,57 47,02
Emerging Market Equities
S&P Asia 50 Asia 0,02 ‐5,94 1,70 5,42 20,16 51,83
CSI 300 China ‐1,43 ‐11,83 ‐8,23 ‐15,72 13,94 37,27
SENSEX India 0,41 ‐6,35 6,17 2,84 34,98 70,66
KOSPI South Korea ‐1,17 ‐4,54 3,65 3,01 14,66 33,57
TAIEX Taiwan ‐0,47 ‐8,10 2,75 9,88 14,48 67,42
New Europe Blue Chip (€) Europe 2,05 3,53 9,35 12,62 31,78 55,60
MICEX Russia 1,85 3,43 16,30 30,70 40,07 102,81
RTS Russia 1,69 1,81 12,69 34,41 56,08 158,42
WIG Poland ‐0,56 ‐0,62 6,27 14,59 33,70 62,39
Prague Stock Ex. Czechia 0,29 6,37 6,88 6,07 20,94 56,16
PFTS Ukraine ‐0,46 9,95 6,99 44,84 57,62 146,13
S&P Latin America 40 ($) South America 1,59 ‐7,55 0,57 12,77 38,31 60,66
BOVESPA Brazil 2,31 ‐2,94 6,27 18,07 32,99 58,13
BOLSA Mexico ‐0,72 ‐5,38 5,21 8,22 28,84 47,98
Bonds
USA Treasuries USA 0,00 0,00 0,00 2,80 0,07 0,28
EMU Bonds Europe ‐0,16 1,05 0,72 2,52 4,70 8,14
UK Gilts Great Britain ‐0,10 0,40 ‐1,87 ‐1,46 ‐3,07 ‐0,31
UA Bonds Ukraine ‐0,42 9,06 15,61 9,59 22,92 103,14
Commodities
Gold ‐0,42 ‐1,41 ‐0,20 12,37 18,29 21,34
Oil (Brent) ‐1,06 ‐8,91 ‐10,61 ‐7,21 13,15 27,77
Currency
EUR/USD ‐1,27 ‐3,22 ‐5,60 ‐3,84 3,48 6,17
USA Euro area Japan China Germany Britain Brazil Poland Czechia Russia Ukraine
S&P 500 DJ EuroStoxx 50 Nikkei‐225 CSI 300 DAX‐30 FTSE‐100 BOVESPA WIG Prague SE MICEX PFTS
Change from 52w high, % ‐5,32 ‐8,25 ‐5,56 ‐17,27 ‐7,22 ‐6,30 ‐6,33 ‐4,77 ‐3,02 ‐4,99 ‐4,81
Change from 52w low, % 63,35 58,22 47,71 55,01 57,56 51,63 86,36 95,07 95,83 135,10 216,35
Price‐earnings ratio, P/E 18,74 20,85 n/a 26,05 54,99 53,94 20,55 n/a 31,99 21,06 n/a
Price‐sales ratio, P/S 1,24 0,77 0,66 2,44 0,66 1,20 1,73 0,90 1,57 1,39 0,66
Price‐book ratio, P/BV 2,16 1,34 1,38 3,07 1,48 1,92 2,04 1,50 1,54 1,28 1,40
Divident yields 12M, % 2,14 4,09 1,52 1,42 3,63 3,56 3,16 2,25 4,95 1,49 0,03
WWW.ART‐CAPITAL.COM.UA
ART‐CAPITAL Equity Markets Weekly February 2, 2010
Quotations
Close WOW,% MTD,% YTD,% P/E EV/EBITDA EV/S
UNAF Ukrnafta 199,0 ‐7,0 ‐7,0 18,1 121,2 11,9 1,0
UTLM Ukrtelecom 0,4 ‐0,9 ‐0,9 0,9 38,6 7,8 1,5
Banks
BAVL Raiffeizen Bank Aval 0,3 1,5 1,5 8,1 4,2 n/a 4,4
FORM Bank Forum 7,3 1,1 1,1 20,8 n/a n/a 4,4
USCB Ukrsotsbank 0,4 ‐0,4 ‐0,4 5,3 16,1 n/a n/a
RODB Rodovid Bank 50,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,5 n/a n/a
Electricity
CEEN Centerenergo 10,1 0,0 0,0 5,8 47,1 34,3 1,1
DNEN Dniproenergo 668,0 0,3 0,3 ‐2,5 371,6 #N/A N/A 1,3
DOEN Donbasenergo 60,5 ‐1,4 ‐1,4 10,0 32,0 239,7 0,8
ZAEN Zakhidenergo 331,0 0,3 0,3 0,7 107,1 1445,1 1,1
Electricity
DNON Dniprooblenergo 271,0 0,0 0,0 ‐3,2 20,3 n/a 0,2
HAON Kharkivoblenergo 2,9 0,0 0,0 ‐8,9 n/a n/a 0,2
KIEN Kievenergo 11,2 0,0 0,0 ‐0,4 37,2 n/a 0,4
KREN Krymenergo 2,9 0,0 0,0 ‐10,8 10,0 n/a 0,4
Steel
AZST Azovstal 3,4 0,6 0,6 25,6 29,0 n/a n/a
ALMK Alchevsk Iron&Steel 0,2 ‐0,7 ‐0,7 57,7 18,9 15,4 0,4
DMKD DMK Dzerzhynskogo 0,5 0,0 0,0 18,6 1,8 n/a n/a
DMZP DMP Petrovskogo 0,4 0,0 0,0 0,0 n/a n/a 0,4
DNSS Dniprospetsstal 1625,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 51,0 14,1 1,0
ENMZ Enakievo Steel 210,4 0,2 0,2 24,5 10,1 32,8 0,1
KSTL Mittal Steel Kriviy Righ 13,0 0,0 0,0 27,5 37,1 14,6 1,9
MMKI Mariupol Illych Iron & Steel 3,1 ‐0,3 ‐0,3 27,5 145,7 15,6 0,1
Tubes
DTRZ Dnipropetrovsk TW 114,0 0,0 0,0 1,8 n/a n/a n/a
HRTR Khartsyzsk TW 1,4 ‐0,7 ‐0,7 5,3 121,2 11,9 1,0
NITR Nizhnyodneprovsky Tubes 10,0 0,0 0,0 ‐8,2 121,2 11,9 1,0
NVTR Novomoskovsk Tubes 2,4 0,8 0,8 14,3 121,2 11,9 1,0
Iron ore
CGOK Central Mining 3,5 0,0 0,0 22,8 n/a n/a n/a
PGOK Poltava Mining 30,4 0,5 0,5 10,5 41,6 11,0 0,7
SGOK Pivnichny Mining 4,5 0,0 0,0 25,0 n/a n/a n/a
Coke
AVDK Avdeevka Coke 11,5 0,1 0,1 9,1 331,8 5,0 0,1
ALKZ Alchevsk Coke 0,4 0,0 0,0 5,9 15,0 7,9 n/a
ZACO Zaporizhya Coke 1,4 0,0 0,0 ‐20,6 12,3 0,1 0,0
YASK Yasinovka Coke 4,0 0,3 0,3 27,4 8,8 4,9 0,0
Engineerin
AVTO Ukravto 117,0 0,0 0,0 ‐6,4 n/a n/a 0,3
AZGM Azovzagalmash 8,5 ‐22,7 ‐22,7 ‐46,9 n/a 352,8 0,4
DGRM Donetskgormash 0,3 0,0 0,0 0,0 n/a n/a 0,9
HMBZ Svitlo Shahtarya 0,3 0,0 0,0 ‐41,7 n/a n/a n/a
KVBZ Kriukov Car Building 22,1 0,7 0,7 29,2 31,9 31,1 0,3
LTPL Luganskteplovoz 2,7 ‐1,8 ‐1,8 5,9 385,7 37,9 0,4
LUAZ LUAZ 0,2 0,0 0,0 0,0 2,6 67,8 0,8
MSICH Motor Sich 1847,0 1,5 1,5 12,0 8,5 6,6 n/a
MZVM Mariupol Heavy Engineering 26,6 ‐1,5 ‐1,5 6,4 116,4 17,7 0,3
SMASH Sumy Frunze Machinery 70,0 0,9 0,9 25,7 20,1 7,9 0,9
SNEM Nasosenergomash 3,9 0,0 0,0 6,9 n/a n/a n/a
SVGZ Stakhanovsk Car Building 4,1 2,3 2,3 45,4 81,7 47,9 0,3
Others
DNSH Dniproshina 16,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 n/a n/a 0,9
KFTP Kriukovka Cellulose & Paper 32,5 0,0 0,0 ‐4,3 7,7 2,3 0,4
MTBD Mostobud 370,0 ‐1,3 ‐1,3 2,5 190,7 n/a 0,3
SHCHZ Mine Krasnoarmeyskaya 5,0 1,6 1,6 11,1 21,8 n/a n/a
SHKD Mine Komsomolets Donbasa 4,5 0,0 0,0 ‐10,0 n/a n/a n/a
STIR Stirol 50,0 ‐1,8 ‐1,8 4,6 42,9 19,1 0,1
ZABR Zaporizhya Abrasives 1,1 0,0 0,0 6,0 1,4 n/a 1,2
ZALK Zaporizhya Alluminum 0,4 0,0 0,0 0,0 n/a n/a n/a
ZFER Zaporizhya Ferroalloys 0,8 0,0 0,0 0,0 20,0 n/a n/a
FC ART‐CAPITAL
1 Narodnoho Opolchennya Street, 6th floor
Kyiv, 03151 Ukraine
т. +380 (44) 490‐51‐85, 490‐51‐84
www.art‐capital.com.ua
Research Department
+38 (044) 490‐51‐85 (184)
research@art‐capital.com.ua
Stanislav Zelenetskiy Daria Tereshchuk
Analyst Analyst
zelenetskiy@art‐capital.com.ua tereshuk@art‐capital.com.ua
Zhanna Shakhno
Analyst
shakhno@art‐capital.com.ua
Sales & Trading Department
st@art‐capital.com.ua
+38 (044) 490‐92‐46
Konstantin Shylin
Head of Sales Department
shylin@art‐capital.com.ua
Oleg Kirieiev, MBA (ESCP‐EAP) Valeriy Dobrovolski
International Sales and Trading / Analyst International Sales and Trading
kirieiev@art‐capital.com.ua dobrovolski@art‐capital.com.ua
Artur Rybai Svetlana Shevchun
Investment manager Trader
ribay@art‐capital.com.ua shevchun@art‐capital.com.ua
+38 (044) 490‐92‐46 +38 (044) 490‐92‐45
Alexandr Saul Nina Bazarova
Investment manager Investment manager
saul@art‐capital.com.ua bazarova@art‐capital.com.ua
Vitalij Berdichevsky Nikolay Matveev
Investment manager Investment manager
berdichevsky@art‐capital.com.ua matveev@art‐capital.com.ua
This report has been prepared solely for information purposes and is not intended to be an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any
securities. Descriptions of any company or companies or/and their securities, or markets, or developments mentioned herein are not represented
to be complete. There is no responsibility on our part to revise or update any information or correct any inaccuracies contained in this report on an
ongoing basis. Although the information in this material has been obtained from sources that CJSC IFC ART‐CAPITAL believes to be reliable, we do
not guarantee its completeness or accuracy. In making their investment decisions investors are expected to rely on their own analysis of all risks
associated with investing in securities. CJSC IFC ART‐CAPITAL, its top executives, representatives and employees accept no liability whatsoever for
any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of the material or its contents. CJSC IFC ART‐CAPITAL, third parties related to it, its directors
and/or employees, and/or any persons connected with them, may have interests in the companies or provide services to one or more companies
discussed herein and/or intend to acquire such interests and/or to provide any such services in the future. All estimates and opinions expressed in
this report reflect the judgment of each research analyst, who is fully or partially responsible for the contents of the document, and may differ
from the opinions of ART‐CAPITAL. This document, or any part hereof, may not be reproduced or copies circulated without the prior express
consent of CJSC IFC ART‐CAPITAL.