1

Is Direct Election Possible in Somalia in 2016?

Dr. Abdurahman Baadiyow1
The most popular question being asked and debated among Somalis in
the media and social gatherings is what will happen in Somalia 2016. The
prevailing discussion is focused on the procedures of extension or other
alternatives which destabilizes free and fair election expected to take place
in 2016. Proposals include total extension for the current parliament and the
president or partial extension to the parliament alone and electing a new
president. Another proposal posits an intermediate model that combines
selection and election in each sub-clan constituencies. All these suggestions
are based on one common assumption: holding direct election in Somalia in
2016, although desirable, is impractical.
Undoubtedly, the majority of Somalis are exhausted from the 4.5
power sharing model adopted in Djibouti conference held in 2000. The
current 4.5 model was developed by the Somali civil-society and believed to
have shifted the Somali state-building process towards the first wave of a
peaceful transition. Unfortunately, the 4.5 model, intended to be used
temporary as transition mechanism, persisted longer and did not precipitate
the desired goal. Consequently, discussions in various forums and media
outlets have expressed strong aversion against this model for its negative
bearing on government institutions and political life. For that reason, today,
the prevalent attitude among the general public is the desire to participate in
the state building process through a democratic transformation that enables
citizens to vote.

1 Dr. Baadiyow is the Chairman of the National Unity Party and deputy chairman of
the Forum for Unity and Democracy, the largest political coalition in Somalia that
includes more than 25 political parties, parliamentarians and prominent politicians.
The chairman of the Forum is the former Prime Minister Abdiweli Sheikh Ahmed.

The major document that outlines democratic transformation is known

by the misnomer "Vision 2016". It was adopted by the current regime along
with external stakeholders which supposedly ends when a free and fair
election is held. However, because of the inadequate performance of the
current regime and lack of progress in achieving major milestones of the
Vision 2016, many voices began to rattle and express their concerns and
hopelessness of the possibility of holding direct elections in Somalia.
Their frustration emanates from the regimes failure in completing the
required tasks

of the Vision 2016 that includes improving security,

completing federal units, conducting census, holding referendum on the

Constitution,

legislating political parties, and preparing logistical and

administrative settings in order to hold free and fair election. With all these
shortcomings, many Somalis concluded that this regime is planning to
extend its term and is not interested in holding fair and free election in 2016.
On the contrary, the regime repeatedly voices rhetorically its
commitment to holding election on time and the international community
concurs pretentiously without putting forward transparent stages that can
lead to an election. In the recent communiqu of the consultative meeting
held in Garowe, participated by President Hassan Sheikh and Regional State
Presidents, affirmed holding an election in 2016. While the official statement
by the government suggests that an election will happen on time, critical
voices, law makers, and several published articles are precipitately
discussing options available in the case where an election does not occur.
Many skeptics of the regime's inability to hold an election stem from the idea
and expectation of holding similar election model exercised in Somalia before
the military takeover in 1969.
This election system was based on the first-past-the post" and district
constituencies. It requires census, agreeing on district constituencies and
their boundaries, distribution of parliamentary seats to the districts, provision

of security and many more. In addition to that, it requires referendum on the

constitution, enacting legislations, registering political parties and so on.
Indeed, it is evident that an election based on this model is impractical and
is not suitable for Somalia in its new democratic transformation campaign.
However,

our

discussions

should

not

be

limited

to

either

district-

constituency-based election, extension or new form of selection process. We

have to think beyond that zero-sum box and explore alternative election
models implemented in other countries with similar situations. An election
system that is simple, doable, unifying, suppresses divisions, promotes party
politics, and fulfils aspirations of the Somali people, need to be discussed.
The Forum for Unity and Democracy (FUD) undertook an important
task of exploring an alternative model conducive for holding an election in
Somalia. Following an exhaustive consultation and in depth analysis with
experts on electoral systems, FUD concluded that an elections in 2016 is
possible and implementable through a Proportional Representation (PR)
electoral system. PR is an electoral system in which the distribution of seats
corresponds closely with the proportion of the total votes cast for each party.
This model is applied in more than 94 countries and provides the real
solution to free and fair elections in 2016 as it has the following features: it is
inclusive, all votes count, simple and transparent, no population census and
demarcation of districts required, ideal for women, youth and minorities,
encourages coalition building, least vulnerable to security problems, reduces
corruption, and accommodates Diaspora and refugee voting.
In order to fulfill our collective aspirations, we must commit ourselves
in holding an election on time and agree on the election system.
Subsequently, we must strategize and plan its implementation phases,
putting forth all required tasks and preconditions without prejudice. In the
case time is short, convinced with our progress and collective will, we can
discuss the required additional timeframe to finish the election process. In

that approach, we reorient ourselves towards the right direction of statebuilding and repudiate all procrastination efforts and extension tendencies.
With the help of the international community, Somalis have the capacity to
hasten this process if there is a strong will and dedication among Somali
political elites.
All things considered, 25 years of state collapse is more than what
Somalia can endure. The political elites should be ashamed in perpetuating
irrelevant excuses and must give Somali citizens their rights to elect their
leaders. In 2016, the dignity and sovereignty of Somalia will be at stake.
Moreover, the international community must not be an accomplice with
those putting obstacles to the peace and state-building process in Somalia.
They should not reward failed leaders and corrupt system of governance. The
Somali people have matured and will no longer accept dehumanizing
narratives that make them different from other nations.