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IS threat in Libya now has the potential to evolve rapidly. Although the movement remains
fragmented and mainly concentrated in Sirte, Derna and Benghazi, further smaller attacks on
Misratan-held checkpoints have indicated IS growing confidence in the region and their
increasing tactical ability. Indeed, the 166 Battalion, one of the four strongest from a city with
a reputation for the toughness and cohesiveness of its militias, were surprised by the size and
rapidity of the IS assault on the al-Khajil power plant, which has struck genuine fear into its
ranks.
While the Sirte-based IS certainly has links to the citys population some of whom are
former Gaddafi sympathisers who have been excluded from power since the revolution and
have nothing to lose by siding with the terrorist group the influx of foreign fighters into its
ranks is swelling its confidence and driving its territorial ambitions. Indeed, Libyan sources
claim up to 70 percent of IS are Tunisians. Whilst this figure may well be inflated, there has
clearly been an upsurge in young foreigners taking advantage of Libyas fragmented political
and security landscape to fight jihad. The past two weeks have shown that these fighters now
possess the capability and intent to defeat one of the most organised and efficient militias in
Libya. A coordinated and well-equipped military response is now required to reverse IS
momentum, and while the Misratans are reportedly planning a counter-attack, they have so
far proved reluctant to take on IS head-on.
With the negotiations process likely to stretch out, and the fact that NATO forces have a track
record of working successfully with the Misratans, one potential course of action for the West
at the moment could be to help assist the Misratans in containing IS while the political
process continues. This could be done by special forces and/or air power, and would send a
clear message that the West is not willing to let Libya nor indeed Tunisia, where security is
decreasing suffer a similar fate to parts of Iraq. Convincing China and Russia to approve a
UN Security Council Resolution authorising such action would likely prove difficult, but it
may be worth considering in the interim if an agreement is not quickly forthcoming.