Climate Change West Balkans

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS
The Environment and Security Initiative (ENVSEC) transforms environment and security risks into
regional cooperation. The Initiative provides multistakeholder environment and security assessments and facilitates joint action to reduce tensions and increase cooperation between groups and
countries. ENVSEC comprises the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE),
Regional Environmental Centre for Central and Eastern Europe (REC), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), United
Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as an
associated partner. The ENVSEC partners address environment and security risks in four regions:
Eastern Europe, South Eastern Europe, Southern Caucasus and Central Asia.
ENVSEC, Zo environment network, 2012

This publication has been prepared by Zo Environment Network on behalf of UNEP in the framework
of ENVSEC. Numerous organizations and experts from Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, the
Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia contributed to the publication. The
financial support for the preparation has been provided by the governments of Austria and Finland.
ISBN: 978-2-940490-06-6
CLIMATE CHANGE
IN THE WEST BALKANS
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Editorial and production team:

Jasmina Bogdanovic, Lesya Nikolayeva, Viktor Novikov,
Aleksandra Siljic, Otto Simonett (Zo Environment Network)
Harald Egerer, Pier Carlo Sandei (UNEP Vienna)
The views expressed in this document are those of the authors

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and governments.
Design and layout:

Carolyne Daniel
The designations employed and the presentation of the material

in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion
whatsoever concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city
or area or of its authorities, or concerning delimitation of its frontiers
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errors or omissions that may unwittingly have been made.
Text:
Geoff Hughes
Maps and graphics:
Matthias Beilstein, Yann Demont
Photos Goran Pozek
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minimize climate damage.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ADAPTATION
IN THE REGION
68
VULNERABILITY
42
GREENHOUSE GAS
EMISSIONS AND
MITIGATION
28
CLIMATE CHANGE
IN THE REGION
20
BACKGROUND
08
FOREWORD
This report forms part of an awareness-raising
campaign by the United Nations Environment
Programme and the Environment and Security
initiative on the effects of climate change.
Representatives of governments, international orga
nizations, civil society organizations and research
institutions and other experts from the region have
compiled this booklet with the objective of revealing
and explaining the linkages between people and
the environment in the Balkans. Climate change
is a complex process that can exacerbate threats
caused by persistent poverty, by weak institutions
for the management of resources and for conflict
resolution, by a history of broken communication
channels and mistrust between communities and
nations and by inadequate access to vital natural
resources such as water and arable land.
Our intention is to stimulate a policy debate and
to contribute to a society that is better informed
about upcoming environmental challenges, even
tually strengthening the basis for planning for
the inevitable consequences of climate change.
Effective governance and political and economic

stability are crucial to a countrys or a regions

capacity to cope with climate change. Reporting on
these sensitive and complex matters is an essential
component of our work, and we strive to do so
without casting aspersions. Daunting challenges in
terms of climate change exposure, sensitivity and
adaptive capacity are identified in the region, and
we are pleased to observe that the countries are
making progress in developing their strategies for
adaptation to climate change. A number of regional
agreements and initiatives provide a good basis for
enhanced regional cooperation as well.
We hope that this report will be of some assistance
to those who develop climate change policies and
programmes in the region and that it will stimulate
concrete actions that eventually can be reported
back to the world at one of the future global
meetings on climate change.
Jan Dusik
Acting Regional Director for Europe
United Nations Environment Programme
Guest list of the official COP 15 Royal Climate Change dinner in Copenhagen http://kongehuset.dk/publish.php?id=23249
H.E. Prime Minister Sali Ram Berisha (Albania)
H.E. President Stjepan Mesi (Croatia)
H.E. President Gjorge Ivanov (Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia)
H.E. Prime Minister Milo Dukanovi (Montenegro)
H.E. President Boris Tadi (Serbia)
Climate change in the West Balkans: Key findings, trends and projections
ALBANIA1
BOSNIA
AND
HERZEGOVINA
Air temperature change (last half century)
Precipitation change (last half century)
CROATIA
THE FORMER
YUGOSLAV
REPUBLIC OF
MACEDONIA
MONTENEGRO
SERBIA
Extreme weather events and

climate-related hazards (19902009)
Water resources availability in the future
(forecast period until 2100)
Health infectious and

vector-borne diseases6
Greenhouse gas emissions (in CO2eq)
for period observed
n.a.
Policy instruments, actions and awareness
Climate observation and weather services

(19902009)
increase, enhancement
decrease, reduction
mostly increasing, improving
variable
Information related to vulnerability assessment and adaptation options is based on the study focused on the Drini River Cascade (area from Kukes up to the Lezha Plain).
Air temperature change covers only 11-year period 1990-2000 compared to reference period (1961-1990).
Precipitation change covers only period 1999-2008 compared to reference period (1961-1990).
Lower river flows are expected although scenarios are to be introduced in Second National Communication; water managers are still using historical climate data to design water
infrastructure and guide management decisions.
Decrease is expected, although further studies are required.
In West Balkan countries reliable health statistics on the impacts of climate change on population health, illness and mortality do not exist, since mandatory health records do not contain information for
such a complex evaluation. According to National Communications under the UNFCCC, estimated data indicate an increase in the number of strokes and mortalities, mostly as a result of higher temperatures.
Greenhouse gas emissions are available only for the base year (1990).
Basic systems providing information on water resources were never rebuilt after the breakdown of the former Bosnia and Herzegovina Hydrometeorological Service during the early 1990s.
One of proposed adaptation measures is the development of a Hydrological Information System.
Sources: Most recent National Communications to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
Produced by ZO Environment Network, 2012.
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
GDP in the West Balkans

constant 2000 USD per capita
Democracy, economic development and even

statehood itself are all less than secure in the
Balkans, a region with a history of conflict. Now, as
the countries of the region strive for individual and
collective stability, they face the additional challenges
brought by climate change, and do so against
a background of new international borders and
dynamic populations with strong ethnic identities.
In spite of these challenges, however, the six West
Balkan countries (the Republic of Albania; Bosnia
and Herzegovina; the Republic of Croatia; the former
Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia; Montenegro; and
the Republic of Serbia) that are the subjects of this
report have all experienced rising GDP in the 1995
2009 period with the exception of the slight declines
in 2008 corresponding to the global financial crisis. In
addition, all have made progress towards membership
in the European Union. And in perhaps the most
encouraging sign of all, the younger generations
are demonstrating an astonishingly high degree of
bottom-up cooperation across a range of issues.
A series of six maps illustrates the development
of national boundaries in South-Eastern Europe.
The capacity of the region to respond to the effects
of climate change depends to a large extent on
its political stability and the effectiveness of its
governance. As the series of maps suggests, political
stability in the region is a work in progress that may
affect the regions ability to respond effectively to
climate change.
10
7000
Croatia
6000
5000
4000
3000
Montenegro
2000
The former Yugoslav

Republic of Macedonia
Bosnia and
Herzegovina
Albania
Kosovo*
Serbia
1000
0
1995
2000
2005
* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with
UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence.
2009
Source: World Bank, 2011.
R U S S IA
Vienna
Budapest
R U S S IA
AVienna
U STR IA- H U N GARY
Budapest
Zagreb
R U S S IA
R O M A N I A
Bucharest
Zagreb
Budapest
Belgrade
E RY B I A
A U S T RSarajevo
I A - H U N G AS R
R O M A N I A
Bucharest
Sofia
Zagreb
Belgrade
SarajevoMONTENEGRO
S E R B IA
R O M A N I A
Belgrade
Bucharest
Sofia
OTTO MAN
EMPIRE
I T A L Y SarajevoMONTENEGRO
Constantinople
S E R B IA
O T T O M A NSofia
EMPIRE
MONTENEGRO
Congress of Berlin
Constantinople
Constantinople
Congress of Berlin
1878
CZECHOSLOVAKIA
Congress of Berlin
Vienna
Budapest
AUSTRIA
CZECHOSLOVAKIA
Vienna
Zagreb
AUSTRIA
Zagreb
POLAND
SOVIET UNION
POLAND
SOVIET UNION
H U N GARY
Vienna
Zagreb
AUSTRIA
Budapest
CZECHOSLOVAKIA
H U N GARY
Belgrade
Budapest
SOVIET UNION
R OB UML G
A ANR IIA A
Constantinople
B U LGAR IA
TURKEY
I TALY
1923
ALBANIA
G R E E C E
Constantinople
I TALY
1923
ALBANIA
G R E E C E
Constantinople
1923
TURKEY
SLOVAKIA G R E E CU EK R A I N E
Treaty of Lausanne
Vienna
AUSTRIA
Vienna
SLOVENIA
AUSTRIA
Sofia
TURKEY
Budapest
SLOVAKIA
H U N GARY
U K R A I MOLDOVA
N E
Budapest R O M UA K
N RI AA I MOLDOVA
N E
Zagreb SLOVAKIA
C R O AHT U
I AN G A R Y
Vienna
Bucharest
SLOVENIA BOSNIA AND Budapest
AUSTRIA
Zagreb
Belgrade R O M A N I A MOLDOVA
C RHERZEGOVINA
O AHT U
I AN G A R Y
Bucharest
Sarajevo
SLOVENIABOSNIA
B UA LNGIAAR I A
Zagreb AND YUGOSLAVIA
Belgrade R O M
Sofia
C RHERZEGOVINA
OAT IA
Bucharest
Sarajevo
THE FORMER YUGOSLAV
BOSNIA
AND
REPUBLIC OF
B
U LGAR IA
YUGOSLAVIA
Belgrade
MACEDONIA
I T A L Y HERZEGOVINA
Sofia
Istanbul
ALBANIA
Sarajevo
THE FORMER YUGOSLAV
I TALY
1995
Dayton Agreement
I TALY
1995
Dayton Agreement
1995
Dayton Agreement
B U LGAR IA
REPUBLIC OF
YUGOSLAVIA
TURKEY
MACEDONIA
Istanbul
G
R
E
ESofia
C E
ALBANIA
THE FORMER YUGOSLAV
REPUBLIC OF
MACEDONIA
ALBANIA
G R E E C E
TURKEY
Istanbul
TURKEY
G R E E C E
R O M A N I A
B U LGAR IA
Bucharest
Sofia
R O M A N I A
B U LGAR IA
Bucharest
Sofia
Constantinople
B U L GAR IA OTTO MAN

MONTENEGRO
Sofia
Constantinople
ALBANIA
EMPIRE
G R E E C E
I TALY
1913
I TALY
1913
After Balkan Wars
ALBANIA
G R E E C E
OTTO MAN
Constantinople
EMPIRE
OTTO MAN
1913
EMPIRE
CZECHOSLOVAKIAG R E E C E
SOVIET UNION
After Balkan Wars
Vienna
Budapest
AUSTRIA
CZECHOSLOVAKIA
Zagreb
SOVIET UNION
H U N GARY
Budapest
CZECHOSLOVAKIA
H U N GARY
R O M A N I A
SOVIET UNION
Bucharest
Belgrade
Budapest
R O M A N I A
Y U HG UONS GL A
AV
R IYA
Bucharest
Belgrade
Sarajevo
B UA LNG IAAR I A
R O M
Y U G O S LAV IA
Sofia
Bucharest
Belgrade
Sarajevo
B U LGAR IA
Sarajevo
Treaty of Lausanne
S E R B IA
Belgrade
I T A L Y SarajevoMONTENEGRO
ALBANIA
S E R B IA
Sofia
Bucharest
Sofia
Bucharest
S E R B IA
Zagreb
Belgrade
SarajevoMONTENEGRO
R OBucharest
M A N I A
LAV IA
I T A L Y Y U G O S ALBANIA
R U S S IA
R O M A N I A
Budapest
Belgrade
A U S T RSarajevo
IA- H U N GARY
Vienna
Zagreb
AUSTRIA
POLAND
Belgrade
Sarajevo
Treaty of Lausanne
Zagreb
R O M A N I A
Bucharest
Belgrade
Sarajevo
Y U G O S LAV IA
Budapest
AVienna
Vienna
Zagreb
AUSTRIA
Y U HGUONSGL A
AV
R IYA
R U S S IA
AVienna
After Balkan Wars
OTTO MAN E M PI R E
I TALY
1878
Budapest
Zagreb
AVienna
I TALY
1878
R U S S IA
Vienna
B U LGAR IA
LAV IA
I T A L Y Y U G O S ALBANIA
Sofia
Sarajevo
B U LGAR IA
Istanbul
TURKEY
I TALY
1945
ALBANIA
G R E ESofia
C E
I TALY
1945
ALBANIA
G R E E C E
1945
TURKEY
SLOVAKIA G R E E CU EK R A I N E
After World War II
After World War II
After World War II

Vienna
AUSTRIA
Vienna
SLOVENIA
AUSTRIA
Istanbul
TURKEY
Budapest
SLOVAKIA
H U N GARY
Istanbul
U K R A I MOLDOVA
N E
Budapest R O M UA K
N RI AA I MOLDOVA
N E
Zagreb SLOVAKIA
C R O AH
T IUA N G A R Y
Vienna
Bucharest
SLOVENIABOSNIA AND Budapest
AUSTRIA
Zagreb
Belgrade R O M A N I A MOLDOVA
C RHERZEGOVINA
O AHT U
I AN G A R Y
SERBIA
Bucharest
Sarajevo
SLOVENIA BOSNIA
B U LGAR IA
Zagreb ANDMONTENEGRO
Belgrade R O M A N I A
Sofia
C RHERZEGOVINA
OAT IA
Kosovo*
Bucharest
SERBIA
Sarajevo
THE FORMER YUGOSLAV
BOSNIA
AND
REPUBLIC OF
B
U LGAR IA
Belgrade
MONTENEGRO
MACEDONIA
I T A L Y HERZEGOVINA
Sofia
Kosovo*
Istanbul
ALBANIA
SERBIA
Sarajevo
THE FORMER YUGOSLAV
B U LGAR IA
REPUBLIC OF
MONTENEGRO
T
URKEY
MACEDONIA
I TALY
Kosovo*G R E ESofia
Istanbul
ALBANIA
C E
2011
THE FORMER YUGOSLAV

REPUBLIC OF
T UandRtheK
* This designation is without prejudice to positions
on status, and is in line with UNSC 1244
MACEDONIA
T A L onY the Kosovo Declaration
ICJIOpinion
of Independence.
Istanbul
ALBANIA
2011
EY
G R E E C E
T Uand
R the
KE
* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSC 1244
ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence.
G R E E C E
2011
* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSC 1244 and the
ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence.
11

Szombathely
Graz
A U S T R I A
Szkesfehrvr
Veszprm
Subotica
Sav
Karlovac
Pula
be
Danu
C R O A T I A
Osijek
Timishoara
Brcko
Sarajevo
Split
Pescara
Bijelo Polje
MONTENEGRO
Dubrovnik
Manfredonia
Benevento
I T A L Y
Salerno
Potenza
Taranto
Sofia
Pristina
Tirana
MACEDONIA
Bitola
ALBANIA
Brindisi
Korche
Ioannina
E
Larisa
Kerkyra
Cosenza
Khaskovo
Kavala
Kastoria
Vlor
Arta
Catanzaro
Map produced by ZO Environment Network, February 2012.

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence.
Lamia
A G E A N
Volos
Crotone
12
Serres
imo
nas
Thessaloniki
Str
Stara-Zagora
Dimitrovgrad
Krdzhali
THE FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF
Durrs
Lecce
Plovdiv
Blagoevgrad
Veles
Gostivar
Slive
Ya
Pernik
Skopje
Veliko Trnovo
Gabrovo
Kyustendil
Shkoder
Bar
Bari
Raz
B U L G A R I A
Leskovac
s
Axio
Napoli
Giurgiu
Ruse
Pleven
Vratsa
Kosovo*
Podgorica
C
S
Foggia
Novi Pazar
BUCURETI
Danube
Nis
Craiova
Vidin
Mostar
Ploieti
Piteshti
Bor
Morava
Kragujevac
Buz
Olt
S E R B I A
i na
Dr
HERZEGOVINA
DrobetaTurnu Severin
One
Braov
Ramnicu
Valcea
Belgrade
Tuzla
Sibiu
R O M A N I A
Panchevo
BOSNIA AND
res
Mu
Sfntu
Gheorghe
l
hu
Novi Sad
Slavonski Brod
Banja Luka
Zadar
Deva
Tisza
v
Dra
Zagreb
Arad
Pecs
Rom
Bacu
Cluj-Napoca
Szeged
Ljubljana
Rijeka
Kecskemet
H U N G A R Y
SLOVENIA
Trieste
Bistria
Zalaegerszeg
n
to
Bala
Klagenfurt
Piatra
Neam
Zlau
S E A
POPULATION AND
MIGRATION
The demography of the Balkans is anything but static.
Populations are ageing, fertility rates are declining
and people are moving from rural to urban areas.
Ethnic distributions within countries have political
implications regarding the rationale for statehood,
and international ethnic migration within the region is
high as is emigration to other nearby states, Europe,
the United States and other western countries.
Population in the West Balkans

millions of people
8
Serbia
7
6
5
Croatia
Bosnia and
Herzegovina
Albania
4
3
2
The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia

Kosovo*
1
0
1995
Montenegro
2000
2005
* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status,

and is in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the
Kosovo Declaration of Independence.
2009
13
The overall populations in Croatia, Montenegro and

Serbia are declining, and Serbias population, among
the oldest in Europe and with a low fertility rate, is
shrinking by 30,000 per year. In Albania, the fertility
rate has fallen from 2.0 to 1.3 births per woman, and
large numbers of women of child-bearing age have
left the country. Emigration and war reduced the
population in Bosnia and Herzegovina, but accurate
figures are hard to obtain, and a political controversy
is holding up progress on a 2012 census.
Population redistributions have disrupted the

structure of the working age population, changed
the balance in the job market and increased
unemployment. The rural-to-urban movement has
increased the pressure on already inadequate
infrastructure. Many of the best-educated and most
highly skilled workers have emigrated to destination
countries outside the Balkans.
Population over 64 years old
percentage of total population and absolute number per country in 2010
18
16
14
12
10
8
Serbia
Montenegro
6
4
Croatia
The former Yugoslav

Albania
Bosnia and
Herzegovina
0
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
400,000
800,000
1,200,000
Source: United Nations, 2011.
14
Szombathely
Graz
A U S T R I A
Szkesfehrvr
Veszprm
Zalaegerszeg
Klagenfurt
Sav
Pula
Subotica
C R O A T I A
Karlovac
Szeged
Osijek
Deva
R O M A N I A
Brcko
Belgrade
Tuzla
S E R B I A
HERZEGOVINA
Kragujevac
Sarajevo
Buz
Ploieti
Piteshti
BUCURET
Craiova
Bor
Vidin
Giurgiu
Ruse
Raz
Split
Mostar
Pescara
Bijelo Polje
MONTENEGRO
Dubrovnik
S
Foggia
Manfredonia
Benevento
Salerno
Potenza
Taranto
Leskovac
Sofia
Tirana
MACEDONIA
(inhabitants per km)
Kerkyra
50
Crotone
Kavala
Kastoria
Vlor
Ioannina
Population density
Krdzhali
Thessaloniki
Korche
G
Cosenza
Serres
Bitola
E
Larisa
A G E A N
Volos
Arta
Catanzaro
Map produced by ZO Environment Network, March 2012.

Source: LandScan Global Population Database 2007, Oak Ridge, TN, Oak Ridge National Laboratory ( www.ornl.gov/sci/landscan).
Lamia
S E A
15
Slive
Stara-Zagora
Dimitrovgrad
Khaskovo
Blagoevgrad
Veles
ALBANIA
Lecce
Plovdiv
Kyustendil
Skopje
Durrs
Brindisi
Gabrovo
Pernik
Gostivar
Veliko Trnovo
B U L G A R I A
Pristina
Shkoder
Bar
Bari
I T A L Y
Napoli
Pleven
Vratsa
Kosovo*
Podgorica
Nis
Novi Pazar
One
Braov
Ramnicu
Valcea
Panchevo
BOSNIA AND
Sfntu
Gheorghe
Sibiu
re
Mu
Novi Sad
Slavonski Brod
Banja Luka
Zadar
Arad
Timishoara
Rom
Bacu
Cluj-Napoca
Tisza
Zagreb
Ljubljana
Rijeka
Kecskemet
Pecs
Piatra
Neam
Bistria
H U N G A R Y
SLOVENIA
Trieste
Zlau
Ya
International migrant stock is the number of

people born in a country other than the country
where they live. The data come primarily from
censuses, and the idea is to provide a snapshot
of the situation in a given area on a certain date.
Analysts use extrapolations and interpolations to
reconcile data from different periods or sources.
The 2010 migrant stock figures for the West
Balkan countries indicate the extent of migration
in the region.
Just more than 50 per cent of the more than 4
million emigrants from the West Balkan countries
is living in other Balkan countries or in Italy, Greece
or Turkey. Another 29 per cent is elsewhere in
Europe, and the remaining 21 per cent is scattered
across the globe with significant numbers in the
United States, Canada and Australia. Of the more
than 1.5 million immigrants in the West Balkans,
52 per cent comes from other Balkan countries or
from Italy, Greece or Turkey.
Migration 2010
Albania
Bosnia and
Herzegovina
Croatia
Kosovo*
The former
Yugoslav
Republic
of Macedonia
Montenegro
Serbia
4321
Total
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
Stock of Emigrants
Stock of Immigrants
N/A
* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSC
1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence.
16
Age pyramids
Absolute number of people per age category in 2010

Albania
350 230
Bosnia and Herzegovina
115
115
230
350
350 230
115
115
230
350
females
115
115
230
350
350 230 115
100+
90-94
80-84
70-74
60-64
50-54
40-44
30-34
20-24
10-14
0-4
230
230
115
115
230
350
males
0
0 115 230 350
Thousands
Montenegro
350
350
Kosovo*
350 230
Croatia
115
350
230
115
115
230 350
115
115
230
Serbia
115
230
350

Source: US Census, 2011.
350
230
350
17
AUSTRIA
HUNGARY
Ljubljana
Zagreb
SLOVENIA
Rijeka
Novi Sad
Banja Luka
Zadar
Knin
Split
All of these demographic changes reduce the

regions adaptive capacity.
ROMANIA
Subotica
CROATIA
Brcko
BOSNIAHERZEGOVINA
Sarajevo
Gorazde
Mostar
Belgrade
SERBIA
Novi
Pazar
MONTENEGRO
Dubrovnik
Podgorica
Pristina
Kosovo
BULGARIA
Internal migration is also an issue in the West

Balkans as many people leave rural areas to seek
opportunities in the cities. The population of Tirana
has grown from 200,000 to almost 1 million since
the end of the communist era, taxing the citys
infrastructure. Belgrade, Sarajevo and Skopje
have similar situations. Since 1992 the percentage
of the population living in rural areas has declined
in every West Balkan country.
Skopje
ITALY
MACEDONIA
ALBANIA
GREECE
Population displacement, 1991-2001

Croatians
Muslims
Serbians
Others (Albanians, Hungarians)
Sources: Philippe Rekacewicz; Le Monde diplomatique ( www.monde-diplomatique.fr);
UNEP/GRID-Arendal ( www.grida.no).
18
Emigration from the West Balkans

Number of people born in a West Balkans country living abroad
1000
10 000 100 000 250 000 500 000
Albania
The former Yugoslav

Finland

Serbia
Norway
Croatia
* Emigrants from Kosovo and Montenegro are displayed under Serbia.

+ This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with
UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence.
Sweden
Within West Balkans
Denmark
Source: World Bank, 2010 ( www.worldbank.org).
Ireland
United Kingdom
Netherlands
Germany
Poland
Belgium
Czech Republic
France
Switzerland
Hungary
Austria
Slovenia
Other Europe
Croatia
Bosnia and
Herzegovina
Serbia
Other
Montenegro* Kosovo* +
The former Yugoslav
Republic of
Macedonia
Portugal
Albania
Spain
Canada
Italy
Greece
ali
str
Au
United States
Turkey
19
CLIMATE CHANGE IN
THE REGION
CLIMATE CHANGE
IN THE REGION
21
CLIMATE CHANGE
IN THE REGION
The Balkan countries experience a range of
climates out of proportion to the size of their
geographic area.
Albania has a Mediterranean climate with mild,
wet winters and hot, dry summers, as does the
southern part of Montenegro and the coastal and
lowland areas of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The
climate in the remaining areas of Bosnia and
Herzegovina ranges from temperate continental
to alpine. Most of Croatia has a moderately warm,
rainy climate. The far north of Montenegro has a
continental climate, and the central and northern
parts have some characteristics of mountain
climate, but with Mediterranean Sea influences on
temperature and precipitation.
22
The climate of Serbia varies from temperate

continental in most areas to continental in the
mountains to Mediterranean subtropical and
continental in the south-west. The climate in the
former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia varies
from sub-Mediterranean to moderate continental/
sub-Mediterranean to hot continental to cold
continental to a range of alpine sub-climates.
i n
AUSTRIA
AUSTRIA M O L D O V A
H U N G A R Y
SLOVENIA
C R O AT I A
BOSNIA AND
SLOVENIA
R O M A N I A
MONTENEGRO
Kosovo*
R O M A N I A
C R O AT I A
BOSNIA AND
S E R B I A
HERZEGOVINA
M
H U N G A R Y
HERZEGOVINA
S E R B I A
MONTENEGRO
Kosovo*
B U LGAR IA
THE FORMER YUGOSLAV

REPUBLIC OF
THE FORMER YUGOSLAV

REPUBLIC OF
ALBANIA
I T A L Y
MACEDONIA
G R E E C E
B U LGAR IA
ALBANIA
I T A L Y
MACEDONIA
G R E E C E
Change in precipitation, 1951-2006
Change in temperature, 1951-2006
Per cent per year

-0.5 -0.4 -0.3
C per year
-0.005 0
-0.2
-0.1
0.1
0.2
0.3%

and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence.
Source: Climatewizard ( www.climatewizard.org).
0.005 0.01 0.015 0.02 0.025

and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence.
Source: Climatewizard ( www.climatewizard.org).
23
Pula
Panchevo
Banja Luka
B O SBALKANS
NIA AND
CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST
Brcko
Belgrade
Tuzla
Ploieti
Piteshti
BUCURETI
Craiova
S E R B I A
Giurgiu
Bor
HERZEGOVINA
Kragujevac
Ruse
Vidin
Sarajevo
The Balkans are getting warmer and are projected significant increase in the incidence of dry days.
Razgrad
to continue on this Split
warming trend generally in In the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
Pleven
Mostar
proportion to the expected increase
in global where the frequency and intensity
of floods and
Vratsa
Novi Pazar
Nis
temperatures. Similarly, the region is receiving
droughts
has
already
increased
the sharpest Veliko Trnovo

Leskovac
Bijelo Polje
B U L G A R I A
less precipitation and is projected to experience
in precipitation are expected to occur in
Sliven
M O N T E N E G declines
RO
Gabrovo
Pristina
Sofia
Pescaradecreases, although precipitation patterns
further
the
summer,
along withPernik
the greatest
increase in
Yamb
Podgorica
Dubrovnik
Kosovo*
will continue to vary according to terrain, elevation temperature; winter precipitation is expected to Stara-Zagora
Plovdiv
Kyustendil
and proximity to the sea. The effect of warmer Shkoder
remain unchanged. Serbia has also experienced Dimitrovgrad
Skopje
Khaskovo
temperatures on evaporation, together withBarthe more frequent and intense droughts.
Blagoevgrad Precipitation
VelesBosnia and Herzegovina hasKrdzhali
Gostivar
decline in precipitation,
will
make
the
region
drier.
in
both
Serbia
and
Manfredonia
THE FORMER
YUGOSLAVareas,
REPUBLIC OFand declined in others.
increased
in some
Foggia
Tirana
M Ahas
C Ebeen
D O Nexperiencing
IA
Durrs
All six Benevento
of the West Balkan
countries
conform
to
Montenegro
more frequent
Bari
Serres
the
general
warming
trend,
with
Albania
expecting
extreme
heat
since
1998,
but
annual
precipitation
Bitola
Napoli
ALBANIA
I T A L Y
Kavala
Salerno
more frequent
droughts. In Croatia, a reduction in has remained fairly constant with some fluctuations
Korche
Potenza is attributable
Brindisi
annual precipitation
to
changes
in
around
the
norm,
and
some
analysts
detect a
Taranto
Thessaloniki
Kastoria
Vlor
Lecceand to
the frequency of low-intensity rain days
a slight downward trend.
Zadar
Ioannina
Kerkyra
Cosenza
Crotone
Larisa
Volos
Arta
Lamia
Catanzaro
Map produced by ZO Environment Network, May 2012.
Climate change hotspots

Change in annual precipitation by the 2050s
Present risks intensified by climate warming
Increase
Risk of forest fires
Decrease
Risk of desertification
Temperature increase by 1.7-2.3C by

2050 across the region (depending
on the model and scenario)
Risk of decreasing farming productivity

and risk of failures of rain-fed crops
Sea level rise impacts on coastal erosion
and salt water intrusion
Risk of floods
Drought and heat waves
Projected change in mean seasonal and annual river flow
between 2071-2100 and the reference period 1961-1990
Increase
Stable
Decrease
Sources: Global Risk Data Platform ( www.preventionweb.net/english/maps); European Environment Agency ( www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/sensitivity-to-desertification-index-map); European Environment Agency
( www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/projected-change-in-mean-seasonal-and-annual-river-flow-between-2071-2100-and-the-reference-period-1961-1990); Climate Wizard ( www.climatewizard.org);
The Regional Environmental Center for Central and Eastern Europe (REC) ( www.rec.org/topicarea.php?id=11&section=events&event=12).
24
Zalaegerszeg
n
B al at o
Klagenfurt
Arad Mur
eshu
Subotica
Timishoara
C R O A T I A
Osijek
Slavonski Brod
Sa
va
Pula
Novi Sad
BOSNIA AND
Brcko
Sarajevo
Morava
Kragujevac
Split
Craiova
Bor
Pescara
Bijelo Polje
Dubrovnik
Podgorica
C
S
Manfredonia
Foggia
Benevento
Leskovac
Durrs
I T A L Y
Potenza
Brindisi
Lecce
Taranto
Plovdiv
Stara-Zagora
Dimitrovgrad
Krdzhali
MACEDONIA
Bitola
Korche
Kerkyra
Crotone
Str
imo Serres
nas
E
Larisa
A G E A N
Volos
Arta
Lamia
Catanzaro
Kavala
Thessaloniki
Kastoria
Vlor
Ioannina
S E A
Climate change hotspots

Change in annual precipitation by the 2050s
Slive
Gabrovo
Tundzh
Khaskovo
Blagoevgrad
Veles
Veliko Trnovo
Tirana
G
Cosenza
Sofia
Kyustendil
Skopje
ALBANIA
Salerno
B U L G A R I A
Pernik
Kosovo*
Gostivar
Bari
Pristina
Shkoder
Bar
Raz
Vratsa
Nis
s
Axio
Napoli
Novi Pazar
MONTENEGRO
Giurgiu
Ruse
Pleven
BUCURET
Danube
Vidin
Mostar
Ploieti
Piteshti
Olt
S E R B I A
i na
Dr
HERZEGOVINA
Zadar
Braov
Buz
Ramnicu
Valcea
Belgrade
Tuzla
Sibiu
One
Sfntu
Gheorghe
R O M A N I A
Panchevo
Banja Luka
Deva
a
Tisz
Karlovac
Rijeka
Rom
Bac
Cluj-Napoca
Szeged
Pecs
Dr
Zagreb
Ljubljana
av
a
Piatra
Neam
Bistria
Kecskemet
H U N G A R Y
SLOVENIA
Trieste
Zlau
Siret
A U S T R I A
Szkesfehrvr
Veszprm
Evro
Szombathely
Graz
25
Present risks intensified by climate warming
Risk of floods
Ya
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT AND DEVELOPMENT

SCENARIOS IN THE BALKANS
Scenarios are neither predictions nor strategies, but rather narratives of alternative futures that assist
decision-makers and stakeholders plan in an environment of uncertainty.
The Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) and the European Environment
Agency (EEA) organized a scenario development workshop, Opportunities for development in the
West Balkans in the context of climate change impacts and water scarcity, held in Belgrade, Serbia,
2426 October 2011. More than 40 experts from the region participated in the event, and developed
four separate scenarios based on assumptions about future climate change impacts (low or high),
and about economic growth (sustainable or not). The baseline scenario combines assumptions of low
climate change impacts with unsustainable economic growth.
The workshop participants considered a wide range of driving forces social, technological, economic,
environmental and political across global, regional and local levels of influence. Those drivers
contributing to greater risk included poor education and an inadequate knowledge base; low political
and public awareness; ill-prepared and vulnerable industries; and unsustainable economic growth.
The participants identified the following goals or pathways as essential to reaching the desired future:
Good governance
Education and social awareness
Improvement in general welfare
Political stability
Availability of green technology.
26
West Balkans Scenario Development Workshop

Prospective scenario outcomes
Climate Change Impacts
Prosperous and secure

Equality
Good knowledge base
High quality of life
Effective environmental
policies and management,
including integrated water
management and cross-border
agreements.
Energy mainly from renewable
sources
Prosperous but fragile

Sustainable
Similar to Prosperous and secure,

but :
More intensive resource use
controlled by green technology
Declining groundwater
resources may necessitate
importing water
Decreased hydropower
potential may necessitate
energy imports.
Low
High
Business as usual
Dramatic impacts
Poverty and hopelessness

General scarcity
Drinking water deficits
Water use mainly in agriculture
Some ecosystem recovery
attributable to economic
stagnation.
Similar to Business as usual, but :

A deteriorating environment
and a negative development
spiral
High water scarcity
Unmanaged extreme events
Unsustainable
lead to further environmental
deterioration.
Economic Growth
27
GREENHOUSE GAS
EMISSIONS AND
MITIGATION
GREENHOUSE
GAS EMISSIONS
AND MITIGATION
Most of the observed increase in global average

temperatures since the mid-20th century is
very likely due to the observed increase in
anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Fourth Assessment Report
29
While the West Balkans are experiencing serious

consequences of climate change, the regions
contribution to the problem is much lower than
in highly developed countries. In 2008, the CO2
emissions for the West Balkan countries range
from slightly more than 1 metric tonne to just over
8 metric tonnes per capita. As a group, their annual
per capita emissions are a bit more than one half
those of the European Union (EU-27) countries,

and a bit more than one quarter those of the United
States. The largest disparity is evident in the total
emissions figures: compared to China, the US
and the EU, the West Balkans emissions barely
register. A brief overview of greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions and mitigation strategies by country
follows.
CO2 emissions in the West Balkans

metric tonnes per capita
Bosnia and
Herzegovina
8
7
The former Yugoslav

Croatia
West Balkans region
Serbia
6
5
Serbia and
Montenegro
4
3
Montenegro
Albania
1
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
CO2 emissions in different regions

metric tonnes per capita
10
0
1995
30
European Union (27)
China
2000
2005
4,000
2,000
West Balkans region
2008
2005
2006
2007
2008
Sources: World Bank, United Nations, 2011.
absolute number in millions in 2008
6,000
15
2004
8,000
USA
20
2003
China
7,031
USA
5,461
European Union (27)
4,186
West Balkans region

0,122
0
Sources: World Bank, United Nations, 2011.
AUSTRIA
HUNGARY
SLOVENIA
CROATIA
ROMANIA
BOSNIA AND
HERZEGOVINA
MONTENEGRO
SERBIA
BULGARIA
Kosovo*
MACEDONIA
I T A L Y
ALBANIA
Greenhouse gas emissions in the West Balkans

Energy
Transport
Kilotonnes CO2 equivalents
50000
Fugitive emissions from fuels

Industrial processes
Agriculture
Waste
G R E E C E
20000
10000
5000
Removals by land use

change and forestry
Sources: National Communications under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, latest year available (Albania 2000, Bosnia and Herzegovina 1990, Croatia 2008, Montenegro 2003, Serbia 1998,
The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia 2002) ( http://unfccc.int).
31
AUSTRIA
HUNGARY
SLOVENIA
CROATIA
304
ROMANIA
1108
663
BOSNIA AND
HERZEGOVINA
SERBIA
294
BULGARIA
Kosovo*
MONTENEGRO
MACEDONIA
I T A L Y
ALBANIA
182
655
Carbon dioxide emissions, 2008

Kilograms per 2005 PPP $ of GDP
1000
500
200
100

Source: World Bank, latest available data ( http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog).
32
G R E E C E
33
ALBANIA
Between 1990 and 2000, Albanias GHG emissions
associated with land use change and forestry
declined significantly, while emissions in all other
sectors increased. Because land use change
and forestry represented such a large proportion
of total emissions in the base year (45 per cent),
the total emissions for the country declined in the
period by 3 per cent. The increase in emissions
in the energy sector combined with the decline in
land use change and forestry emissions resulted
in the energy sector having the highest proportion
of total emissions in Albania in 2000. The waste
sector shows the highest percentage increase, but
in absolute terms, waste emissions rose less than
in any other sector except industrial processes.
Albanias mitigation strategies for the energy

sector include switching to power plants that
use cleaner energy sources, and increasing the
efficiency of boilers, refrigerators and motors.
Agricultural initiatives centre on improvements in
the management of manure and grazing systems,
and on crop rotation. New landfills with methane
recovery and solid waste incinerators are intended
to reduce emissions associated with waste. The
strategies related to land use change and forestry
include the development of a sustainable forestry
plan, improvement in forestry management prac
tices and rehabilitation of damaged forest land.
GHG emissions change from 1990 to 2000 in Albania
land use change

and forestry
waste
agriculture
industrial processes
energy
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
Note: no data available on transport and fugitive emissions from fuels for Albania.
Note: comparison between base year and year with latest available data.
34
200%
250%
300%
350%
Source: Second national communication of Albania, 2009.
BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

Greenhouse gas emissions data for Bosnia
and Herzegovina are available only for 1990,
so no trend analysis is possible. The country
is working with external partners on a project
intended to enable the preparation of its second
communication to the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The
second communication will update the GHG
inventory, and include additional gases not covered
in its initial communication. The project aims to
build capacity so that Bosnia and Herzegovina
can develop data and estimates that adhere to the
good practice guidelines of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change.
Bosnia and Herzegovinas initial communication

to the UNFCCC recommends the development of
a national climate change mitigation strategy and
action plan based in part on the findings of the
initial communication, and prepared in conjunction
with work on the second communication.
Develop
ment of the mitigation strategy is to
include a national mitigation policy that relates to
national economic and development plans; the
identification of measures and activities necessary
for implementation; and provisions for the direct
inclusion of the entity-level governments.
35
CROATIA
In both 1990 and 2007, the energy sector in
Croatia accounted for almost 70 per cent of the
countrys total GHG emissions. Emissions in the
waste, fugitive emissions, transport and energy
sectors all increased between 1990 and 2007,
while in the agriculture and industrial processes
sectors emissions declined. Absorption of GHG
emissions in the land use change and forestry
sector increased, thus further reducing total
emissions. The highest percentage changes
occurred in transport, land use change and
forestry and waste. The overall GHG emissions
during this period increased by 6 per cent.
Croatia has already implemented an impressive
array of mitigation measures across all sectors,
and has identified additional measures as either
adopted or planned. In the energy sector, the
country has implemented measures to promote
the use of renewable energy sources in electricity
generation, the application of cogeneration and
36
the upgrading of energy efficiency in building

construction, and has plans to construct a 1,000
MW nuclear power plant by 2024. The transport
sector has seen the introduction of biofuel and a
programme to increase the attractiveness of rail
transport. New measures related to industrial
processes are intended to reduce N2O emissions
in nitric acid production and volatile organic
compounds emissions in solvent use. New waste
measures include avoiding and reducing municipal
waste generation, enhancing the recycling of
municipal waste and using landfill gas for electricity
generation. The efficient management of organic
manure is being promoted in agriculture, and in the
land use and forestry sector, efforts are underway
to improve private forest management and to plant
new forests.
Croatia has also undertaken a number of crosssectoral measures and activities related to its
status as UNFCCC Annex I country.
GHG emissions change from 1990 to 2007 in Croatia

land use change
and forestry
waste
agriculture
fugitive emissions from fuels
transport
energy
- 50%
- 40%
- 30%
- 20%
- 10%
Note: Croatia is the only Annex I country from the region and therefore
has committed to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases by 5 per cent as
compared to the base year (1990) during the first mandatory
period (2008-2012) under the Kyoto Protocol.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Source: Fifth national communication of the Republic of Croatia, 2010.
37
THE FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA

The reduction in emissions associated with land
use change and forestry in the former Yugoslav
Republic of Macedonia between 1990 and
2002 appears to be impressive, but this sector
represented only 2 per cent of the countrys total
emissions in 1990. The energy sector accounts
for the lions share 70 per cent in 2002. Overall
GHG emissions for the period dropped 8 per cent,
largely attributable to the decline in agricultural
emissions.
The second national communication of the former
Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia to the UNFCCC
includes a National Action Plan for Climate Change

Mitigation. In the energy sector, the plan envisions
using natural gas for electric power production,
maximizing the potential of hydropower and
improving energy efficiency. Transport measures
include improvements in the energy efficiency of
vehicles and in public urban and intercity transport.
The waste strategy introduces sustainable
management and measures for waste selection
and recycling, composting and the reduction of
deposited waste. The main strategy in agriculture
focuses on manure management, and in forestry
on afforestation.
GHG emissions change from 1990 to 2002 in the former Yugoslav Republic
of Macedonia
land use change
and forestry
waste
agriculture
transport
energy
- 90%
- 80%
- 70%
- 60%
- 50%
- 40%
- 30%
- 20%
- 10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Source: Second national communication of the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, 2008.
38
MONTENEGRO
Montenegros overall GHG emissions decreased
between 1990 and 2003 by 2 per cent, with
the largest contribution coming from land use
change and forestry. While energy emissions
increased slightly in this period, the proportion of
total emissions attributable to the energy sector
increased slightly from 51 per cent to 54 per
cent. The largest percentage change in emissions
came from absorption in the land use and forestry
sector, but in 2003 this sector accounted for only
17 per cent of total emissions.
In its initial communication to the UNFCCC,
Montenegro identifies emission reduction stra
tegies for each sector. Strategies for the energy
sector include combining the production of heat

and electric power, increasing the efficiency of
industrial boilers and replacing coal with liquefied
petroleum gas in industrial boiler rooms and in
the production of high temperature heat. Plans for
the transport sector provide for the replacement
of fossil fuels with alternative fuels and for the
development of a more efficient transportation
system. Strategies for agriculture include the
improvement of manure management and the
encouragement of organic farming. In the land
use and forestry sector, Montenegro intends to
increase the share of highly productive forests, to
rehabilitate damaged forests and to preserve and
enhance woodland habitats.
GHG emissions change from 1990 to 2003 in Montenegro

land use change
and forestry
waste
agriculture
transport
energy
- 80%
- 70%
- 60%
- 50%
- 40%
- 30%
- 20%
- 10%
0%
10%
20%
Source: Initial national communication of Montenegro, 2010.
39
SERBIA
Between 1990 and 1998 Serbias GHG emissions
declined by 22 per cent with most of the reduction
coming from the energy sector, which accounted
for 79 per cent of Serbias GHG emissions in 1998.
Emissions in the land use change and forestry and
waste sectors experienced significant percentage
changes, but these sectors represent a small
proportion of overall emissions.
Serbias mitigation plans for the energy sector
include improving energy efficiency and using
more renewable energy sources. Automation,
monitoring and waste energy utilization are the
main strategies for reducing emissions in the
area of industrial processes. In the transport

sector, Serbia seeks to re-establish an efficient
international rail system, repair roads, increase
the level and efficiency of river transport and
cease production of leaded gasoline. New
technologies in coal mine ventilation are expected
to reduce fugitive emissions. The use of biogas
in the production of heat and power for local
consumption in large livestock operations is a
key strategy for reducing agriculture emissions,
and afforestation is the preferred strategy in the
land use change and forestry sector. In the waste
sector, Serbia plans to establish regional landfills
and increase the degree of recycling.
GHG emissions change from 1990 to 1998 in Serbia

land use change
and forestry
waste
agriculture
transport
energy
- 30%
- 20%
- 10%
40
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Source: Initial national communication of the Republic of Serbia, 2010.
A green economy results in improved human wellbeing and social equity, while significantly reducing
environmental risks and ecological scarcities. In
its simplest expression, a green economy can be
thought of as one that is low-carbon, resourceefficient and socially inclusive.

United Nations green economy report
The idea of a green economy emerged from the

recognition that the economy is crucial to the
achievement of sustainability, and that todays
economies fail to account sufficiently for pollution,
resource depletion, declining ecosystem services
and the consequent inequities that affect the poor.
The transition to a green economy would entail
creating the conditions for public and private
investments that include both environmental
and social goals. Such investments would
drive economic growth while reducing carbon
emissions and pollution, enhancing energy and
resource efficiency and preventing further losses
of biodiversity and ecosystem services.
The measures for responding to climate change

both through mitigation and adaptation are
entirely consistent with the green economy model,
as are sustainable development projects. The
difference is that a green economy would take a
more comprehensive approach, one designed so
that all projects meet the tests for sustainability as
a matter of course. The West Balkan countries may
be able to adopt national policies that encourage
a green economy while simultaneously pursuing
separate sustainable development and climate
change adaptation projects.
41
VULNERABILITY
VULNERABILITY
43
The ability of the West Balkan countries to respond

effectively to climate change either alone or
together depends on their overall vulnerability,
which is a function of three factors exposure,
sensitivity and the capacity to adapt.
Exposure accounts for the hazards associated
with future climate change as compared to
present conditions. Drought, for example, is a
hazard resulting from higher temperatures and
less precipitation. Sensitivity considers the degree
to which exposure to a hazard causes harm. In
an agricultural region, for example, exposure
to drought may have significant consequences.
Adaptive capacity captures the ability of the social,
economic and political institutions to respond to
the effects of climate change.
The vulnerability index combines indices for
exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity.
(These separate indices are included in the
sections that follow.) On this relative scale, the
higher scores signify higher overall vulnerability.
Of the five countries included in this analysis,
Albania is the most vulnerable to climate change,
and Croatia the least.
44
Vulnerability index
Tajikistan
Albania
Kyrgyz Republic
Armenia
Uzbekistan
Georgia
Azerbaijan
Turkmensitan
Turkey
Moldova
The former Yugoslav
Serbia
Russia
Bosnia and
Herzegovina
Bulgaria
Kazakhstan
Romania
Belarus
Ukraine
Latvia
Poland
Croatia
Lithuania
Slovakia
Hungary
Estonia
Czech Republic
Slovenia
0
10
15
20
25
45
EXPOSURE AND
SENSITIVITY
The exposure index measures the strength of
future climate change relative to todays natural
variability, and includes both annual and seasonal
temperature and precipitation indicators. It
combines the number of additional hot, dry and
wet years; hot, dry and wet summers; and hot, dry
and wet winters projected over the 20702100
period relative to the 19611990 period. On this
relative scale, the higher scores signify higher
exposure.
Rising temperatures and disruptions in the

precipitation regime are the most significant
exposures for the region. All the countries
in the West Balkans face more frequent and
more intense droughts and floods, and the four
countries with coastal areas Albania, Bosnia
and Herzegovina, Croatia and Montenegro also
face potential hazards associated with a rising sea
level. Exposure to these hazards will play out in
public health and biodiversity and in key economic
sectors water resources, agriculture, forestry,
energy and tourism.
46
Exposure index
Serbia
The former
Yugoslav
Republic
of Macedonia
Croatia
Bosnia and
Herzegovina
Albania
10
Note: no information available for Montenegro.
15
20
25
The sensitivity index is based on indicators likely

to increase the impact of climate shocks. These
indicators include the available renewable water
resources per capita; the extent of air pollution;
the share of agricultural employment and the
value of agricultural assets; the share of electricity
derived from hydroelectric plants; a measure of
the overall quality of infrastructure; and the share
of the population over 65 (who tend to be more
sensitive to climate shocks). The higher scores
signify higher sensitivity.
Sensitivity index
Serbia
The former
Yugoslav
Republic
of Macedonia
Croatia
Bosnia and
Herzegovina
Albania
0
10
15
20
25
The sensitivity of the region to its exposure is high,

and centres on the climate change effects on water
resources. As the disruptions in water resources
ripple through the West Balkans, the negative
effects will multiply. In particular, agriculture
may see diminished production and periodic
catastrophic losses, and hydropower may become
less reliable. The socio-economic consequences
are likely to be profound, and the countries of the
region on the basis of exposure and sensitivity
are highly vulnerable to climate change.
47
Agriculture has a significant role in the West

Balkans sensitivity to climate change. Almost half
of the land in the region is used for agriculture 19
per cent in pastures and 29 per cent in arable land
and permanent crops. Estimates of agricultural
employment vary, as do survey definitions, but
between 18 per cent and 58 per cent of the working
population is engaged in agriculture, and the sector
is an important employer in the region, maybe the
most important employer. Agriculture, on average,
contributes 17 per cent to West Balkans GDP.
Croatias 6.0 per cent agricultural share of GDP,
the lowest in the region, is still significantly higher
than the EU average of 1.6 per cent.
Higher temperatures combined with more frequent
and intense droughts increase the risk of forest fires,
and the West Balkans are already experiencing
more fires over larger areas more than 38,000
fires that burned more than 450,000 hectares
between 1988 and 2004 in Albania, Croatia,
the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia,
Montenegro and Serbia. No reliable data are
available to estimate the economic losses, but the
environmental damage includes loss of habitat,
soil erosion and greenhouse gas emissions.
The regions exposure to more frequent and
intense floods has implications for the economies
of the countries and for the environment, to say
nothing of the attendant human suffering. Flooding
in 2010 in Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina,
Croatia and Montenegro forced 20,000 people
48
from their homes, and caused US$ 450 million in

damage. And in the summer of 2011, heavy rains
overwhelmed the wastewater system in Pristina,
and flooded hundreds of homes causing almost
US$ 500 million in damage.
The mining legacy in the West Balkans raises the
spectre of a flood resulting in an environmental
catastrophe, possibly one with international
implications. Mine tailings the waste material
remaining after metal and mineral extraction
contain complex compounds and residual
chemicals used in the extraction process, and are
held indefinitely in tailings management facilities.
The volume and contamination level of waste
in these facilities can be high, and maintaining
reliable storage and management of the tailings is
a challenge under any circumstances.
Unfortunately, many tailings management
facilities in the West Balkans are abandoned,
neglected or orphaned. Without routine monitoring
and maintenance these facilities deteriorate and
become vulnerable to failure and the consequent
release of toxic contamination. The main
exposure pathways for such releases are rivers,
and the combination of river flooding and tailings
management facility failure poses a major threat
in the region. Such an event within a country
would be bad enough, but when the river crosses
international borders and the event involves more
than one country, dealing with the event becomes
more complicated.
Szombathely
Graz
A U S T R I A
Szkesfehrvr
Veszprm
Zalaegerszeg
n
to
Bala
Klagenfurt
Nere
tv a
Ta
mi
Tirana
Elbasan
complex
Durrs
ALBANIA
Taranto
Brindisi
Lecce
S em
Vlor
Assessed mining site
Serious water pollution

Watershed boundary
an
V jo
Mining sites in the West Balkans

Prioritized mining site
Pleven
B U L G A R I A
Sofia
Podgarec
Korche
se
THE FORMER YUGOSLAV

REPUBLIC OF
MACEDONIA
Bitola
Kavadarci
Plovdiv
Serres
Kavala
G
Ioannina
Kerkyra
E
Larisa
A G E A N
Volos
Arta
Lamia
Gabrovo
S E A

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence
Sources: Zinke Environment Consulting ( www.zinke.at) and Fluvius Floodplain Ecology and River Basin Management ( http://fluvius.com);
Site assessment conducted by ENVSEC in 2006.
49
Slive
Stara-Zagora
Dimitrovgrad
Khaskovo
Thessaloniki
Kastoria
Veliko Trnovo
Krdzhali
ma
Stru
Potenza
Bari
Salerno
Leskovac
Giurgiu
Ruse
Raz
Vratsa
Nis
BUCURET
Danube
ar
Vard
I T A L Y
Craiova
Bardh- Pristina Novo Brdo

Mirash
Pernik
Fushe-Arrez
Kosovo*
Kyustendil
Podgorica
Lojane
Jegunovce
Reps
Sasa
Giegan
Bar
Blagoevgrad
Zletovo
Kurbnesh Tetovo Skopje
Rreshen
Veles
Gostivar
Bucim
Manfredonia
Vidin
Suplja-Stena
Dubrovnik
Bor
complex
Ploieti
Piteshti
Olt
Benevento
Napoli
Stan Terg
MONTENEGRO
S
Foggia
Morava
Bijelo Polje
Buz
Zeta
in a
Dr
tina
Ce
A
Pescara
S E R B I A
One
Braov
Ramnicu
Valcea
Kolubara
Novi Pazar
Mojkovac
Sfntu
Gheorghe
Sibiu
Rom
Bac
R O M A N I A
Panchevo
Srebrenica Kragujevac
Sarajevo
Mostar
Zajaca
Tuzla
HERZEGOVINA
Split
Vares
res
Mu
l
hu
Belgrade
Brcko
Bos
na
a
Un
Zadar
Novi Sad
BOSNIA AND
Jajce
Deva
Timishoara
Timok
Banja Luka
Osijek
Slavonski Brod
Vrb
as
Pula
Arad
Tisza
Sav
be
Danu
C R O A T I A
Karlovac K u p a
Subotica
Piatra
Neam
Bistria
Cluj-Napoca
Szeged
Pecs
v
Dra
Zagreb
Ljubljana
Rijeka
Kecskemet
H U N G A R Y
SLOVENIA
Trieste
Zlau
Ya
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
All societies have inherent abilities to deal
with certain variations in climate, yet adaptive
capacities are unevenly distributed, both across
countries and within societies.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Fourth Assessment Report
Adaptation is a risk management strategy that
intends to respond to the inevitable effects of
climate change, and to enhance resilience the
capacity to respond to a change in a function or in
an environmental condition by resisting damage
and recovering quickly. Ecosystems with a higher
capacity to adapt are less vulnerable to the effects
of climate change. For regions or countries or
economic sectors, the capacity to adapt similarly
determines their degree of vulnerability.
The West Balkan countries face several challenges
to their capacity to adapt. Countries with well
established, effective governance and strong,
stable economies have a distinct advantage in
their adaptive capacity. As the recent history of
conflict in the region recedes into the past, the
Balkan countries are experiencing varying levels of
success in establishing effective governance and
in bringing stability and growth to their economies.
A countrys adaptive capacity may be evidenced
at the systemic level (governance, economy), the
institutional level (ministries, organizations) and at
the individual level (household, farm).
50
All of the Balkan countries aspire to membership

in the European Union, and a countrys status with
respect to EU membership is an indicator of its
stability. The framework for EU negotiations with
the West Balkan countries is actually called the
Stabilisation and Association1 process, which has
three goals:
The stabilization of the countries and the
encouragement of their swift transition to
market economies
The promotion of regional cooperation
Eventual membership in the EU
Croatia, the former Yugoslav Republic of
Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia all enjoy
official candidate status, and Croatia is engaged
in accession negotiations. Albania, Bosnia
and Herzegovina, and Kosovo2 are potential
candidates in the earlier stages of the Stabilisation
and Association process.3
1 More about the process: http://europa.eu/legislation_

summaries/enlargement/ongoing_enlargement/l14536_en.htm
2 This designation is without prejudice to positions on status,
3 Map of candidate and potential candidate countries: http://
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11283616
The West Balkans countries face many of the

same problems on the path to stabilization
lingering boundary disputes and ethnic enclaves,
gray economies, corruption, organized crime and
the effects of the global economic crisis. But each
of the West Balkan countries also has its own set
of circumstances and challenges.
The adaptive capacity index combines social and
economic measures income inequality, GDP
per capita with institutional measures of voice
and accountability, political stability and absence

of violence; and an aggregate measure of
government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule
of law and control of corruption. The higher scores
signify higher adaptive capacity. Croatia has the
highest adaptive capacity of the five countries
included in the index. The former Yugoslav
Republic of Macedonia has the lowest adaptive
capacity, while Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina
and Serbia fall in the middle. Montenegro was not
included in the analysis.
Adaptive capacity index

Albania
Croatia
Serbia
10
12
14
51
ALBANIA
Exposure
Sensitivity
Adaptive capacity
10
In Albania, hydro sources produce more than

95 per cent of the countrys electrical energy,
but as of 2007, only 12 per cent of the countrys
total energy supply down from 25 per cent in
2000. Overall, the share of total demand met by
renewable energy including hydro fell from 42 per
cent in 2000 to 22 per cent in 2007.
Albanias expected increase in long-term mean
annual and seasonal air temperature and
its decrease in mean annual and seasonal
precipitation are likely to reduce long-term
mean annual and seasonal runoff. A 20 per
cent reduction in runoff is projected to cause a
60 per cent reduction in power generation. This
means that while hydropower may be good for
reducing greenhouse gas emissions, reliance
on hydropower can increase the countrys
vulnerability to climate change.
52
15
20
25
The precipitation regime is also important for

agriculture, which is still the backbone of Albanias
economy. Agriculture employs nearly half of the
work force and generates a considerable part of
the national GDP. Emerging sectors (commerce
and services) are diminishing agricultures overall
proportion of the Albanian economy, but agriculture
will continue to dominate.
In the transition from communist rule to multiparty
democracy, Albania has experienced major
political, institutional and socio-economic changes,
and successive governments have grappled with
high unemployment, widespread corruption,
crumbling infrastructure and powerful organized
crime networks, all in a contentious political
environment. Albania has an informal, unreported
economic sector that may be as large as 50 per
cent of the countrys official GDP. The transition
from a centrally planned state to a more modern
openmarket economy has been difficult, but the
government has adopted a fiscal reform package
aimed at reducing the large gray economy and at
attracting foreign investment.
a
Bijelo Polje
rnic
Mojkovac
Kolasin
Vlasotince
Leskovac
Berane
Rozaje
Plav
Pristina
Pernik
Vranje
K o s o v o *
Pec
Herceg-Novi
Podgorica
Kotor
Gnjilane
Orahovac
Urosevac
Prizren
Lake
kee Skadar
Ska
kadar
Va
rd
Pc
in
Skopje
Tetovo
r
Lezhe
s
Tre
Gostivar
Burrel
Lac
Kavaje
Bulqize
Debar
Elbasan
Struga
L kee Ohrid
Lake
O
Ohrid
Lake Prespa
Pogradec
Kucove
Patos Berat
Vlore
Kilkis
Edessa
Gianitsa
Thessalonik
Naousa
Veria
Kastoria
n
mo
liac
Ha
Tepelene
Kozani
on
Katerini
Gravena
Dri
Gjirokaster
Bitola
Florina
Corovode
um
ica
Strumica
Gevgelija
Korce
Str
Sarande
Trikala
0
25
50
75 km
Korfu
Korfu
Ioannina
Axios
ma
Se
Kavadarci
Prilep
Lushnje
Fier
Vijo
Radovis
THE FORMER YUGOSLAV

REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA
Tirana
ALBANIA
Shkum
b
Kicevo
Stip
Rek
a
n
Erze
Shijak
Mat
Kruje
Blag
Kocani
Sveti Nikole
lnica
ega
Br
Veles
ka
Peshkopi
Mat
ja
Dup
Kriva
Palanka
ma
Stru
Kukes
ja
Bo
Durres
Psac
Kumanovo
Shkoder
Bar
B U L G A
Kjustendil
Presovo
Ha
lia
cm
Dakovica
Cetinje
Ulcinj
Podujevo
Beli Drim
Li
M O N T E N E G R O
Mitrovica
Crna
om
a
Novi Pazar
Karditsa
Igoumenitsa
to
53
BOSNIA AND
HERZEGOVINA
Exposure
Sensitivity
Adaptive capacity
10
In terms of both exposure and sensitivity, the

situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina is similar to
Albanias. The expected effects from the changes
in temperature and precipitation are the same,
and pose threats to agriculture, forestry, energy
and water resources management. The country
anticipates that the unfavourable spatial and
temporal distribution of water outflows will require
construction of water management facilities of
considerable scale and complexity to permit
the rational use of water resources and the
preservation of water quality and quantity, and to
provide protection from the damaging effects of
water.
The economic importance of agriculture and
forestry, and to a lesser extent, hydropower means
that Bosnia and Herzegovina is highly sensitive to
these exposures. In addition, a lack of alternative
employment options in communities dependent
on these climate-sensitive sectors of the economy
could make the problems worse.
54
15
20
25
In Bosnia and Herzegovina, three levels of

autonomy and up to four administrative layers
make for a complex public administration
system. The country lacks the management and
the technological and economic capabilities to
adapt to climate change at the national level, and
limited public awareness and financial resources
constrain the capacity for individual adaptation
measures. A large share of the countrys economic
activity remains unofficial and unreported.
An analysis of competitiveness in Bosnia and
Herzegovina found that the country ranks at the
satisfactory level on only 18 out of 116 relevant
criteria. Among the problems are underdeveloped
and inefficient financial markets, a weak fiscal
system and inadequate infrastructure, particularly
in water management. The country possesses
considerable water resources, and water is
potentially a basis for economic development, but
the existing water supply infrastructure is in poor
condition and water resources are increasingly
polluted.
Pecs
Subotica
V o j v o d i n a
Sombor
Osijek
Kutina
Zrenjan
Pozega
Un
a
Tis
Sisak
Dakovo
D an u
Vukovar
Slavonski Brod
Sav
a
Novi Sad
be
Tim
is
Kupa
Karlovac
Prijedor
a
Vrb
Bihac
Banja Luka
a
San
Bosanski
Petrovac
sna
Bo
Doboj
B O S N I A
A N D
Jajce
Zadar
Travnik
Brcko
Bijeljina
Tuzla
SERBIA
Valjevo
Zenica
na
Dr
i
Bugojno
a
tin
Ce
H E R Z E G O V I N A
a
va
ret
Ne
Gorazde
l
m
Mostar
Pljevla
Ta
ra
Hvar
N
Bijelo Polje
MONTENEGRO
Korcula
Lim
Brac
Niksic
Trebinje
Berane
Dubrovnik
Pec
Herceg-Novi
50
E
Cacak
Uzice
Sarajevo
Sibenik
Split
Belgrad
Sabac
100
150
Podgorica
200 km
(UN
Lake Skadar
D ri n
Map produced by ZO Environment Network, November 2011.
Bar
Shkoder
A L B 55
ANIA
Lezhe
Kuk
CROATIA
Exposure
Sensitivity
Adaptive capacity
10
In Croatia, concerns about water resources extend

to whether the water supply can continue to meet
the ever-growing drinking water requirements.
The main issues in agriculture relate to both water
availability and increased temperature, and focus
on the prospects of diminished water supply, the
greater frequency of droughts and the effects of
heat stress on animals.
The tick-borne virus meningoencephalitis occurs
from spring to autumn in Croatia. Warmer and
longer autumns extend the period of tick activity;
milder winters favour tick survival; and higher
temperatures shift the altitudinal limits for tick
occurrence.
56
15
20
25
Croatia still has boundary disputes with Slovenia

and with Bosnia and Herzegovina, and continues
to battle corruption and organized crime. It is a
member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization
and the World Trade Organization, and is a party
to the Central European Free Trade Agreement.
While Croatia has largely achieved macroeconomic
stabilization, deep resistance on the part of the
public and weak political support have inhibited
structural reforms. Long-term growth prospects
remain strong, but difficult problems a stubbornly
high unemployment rate, a growing trade deficit and
uneven regional development still remain. The
global financial crisis will create significant pressure,
and Croatias high foreign debt, anemic export
sector, strained state budget and over-reliance on
revenue from tourism will result in higher risk to
economic stability over the medium term.
Klagenfurt
Kranj
Celje
av
Sombor
Virovitica
Sisak
Subotica
Dr
Karlovac
Szeged
n
Da
Pecs
Zagreb
Trieste
Kutina
S l
a v
Osijek
o n i
a
Pozega
Krk
Dakovo
V o j v o d
SERBIA
Vukovar
Prijedor
Cres
Bihac
Bosanski
Petrovac
Sav a
Brcko
Banja Luka
V
Pag
Zre
Novi Sad
Slavonski Brod
Pula
Doboj
B O S N I A
Bijeljina
A N D
Sabac
Bel
Tuzla
Jajce
Zadar
ka
Travnik
A
d
Sibenik
Valjevo
Zenica
Bugojno
Krin
H E R Z E G O V I N A
Uzice
Sarajevo
Ancona
Hodm
Koprivnica
Novo Mesto
Istria
Kaposvar
Szekszard
S L O V E N I A
Rijeka
H U N G A R Y
Nagykanizsa
Varazdin
Ljubljana
Gorizia
Balaton
Ba
a
av
Jesenice
ITALY
Mu
ra
Maribor
Dr
Cac
Gorazde
Split
Brac
Hvar
S
Teramo
ITALY
t
Korcula
Pescara
Bijelo Polje
MONTENEGRO
a
Dubrovnik
25
Pljevla
Mostar
50
75 km
Trebinje
Berane
Niksic
Pec
Podgorica
Herceg-Novi
Bar
Shkoder
57
Lezhe
ALB
THE FORMER YUGOSLAV

Exposure
Sensitivity
Adaptive capacity
10
Agriculture and industry have been the two most

important sectors of the former Yugoslav Republic
of Macedonia economy, but the services sector has
recently gained prominence. Agriculture is a priority
sector that accounts for a significant proportion of
GDP and employment, and contributes to social
security and poverty reduction.
With its wide range of subnational climates, the
former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia expects
highly varied effects from changes in temperature
and precipitation: projections for the reduction in
effective rainfall vary from 15 per cent to 40 per
cent. Of the countrys available water resources,
84 per cent are formed within its boundaries, so
the country is particularly sensitive to the overall
reduction in effective rainfall. Agriculture will bear
the brunt of the negative consequences, and the
largest effects are expected in central and southeastern parts of the country.
58
15
20
25
The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia has

capacity constraints at the systemic, institutional
and individual levels. Shortages in resources and
staff are evident in the ministries for the environment
and physical planning, economy, transport, health
and industry. The main economic problems of
the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia are
a low standard of living, high unemployment and
relatively modest economic growth. The official
unemployment rate of 31.7 per cent may overstate
the case because of an extensive gray market,
estimated to be more than 20 per cent of GDP.
A largely obsolete industrial infrastructure has not
seen much investment during the transition to a
market-oriented economy. Labour force education
and skills are competitive, but in the absence
of adequate job opportunities, many of those
with the best skills seek employment abroad.
Despite making extensive fiscal and business
sector reforms, the former Yugoslav Republic of
Macedonia has so far lagged behind the rest of
the region in attracting foreign investment and in
creating jobs.
Novi Pazar
Ibar
Polje
Vlasotince
Leskovac
Mojkovac
Berane
sin
Mitrovica
Rozaje
Podujevo
Sofia
Li
Pristina
Pec
Pernik
Vranje
Dr
Beli
Dakovica
im
Orahovac
na
Gnjilane
rav
a
K o s o v o *
Mo
Plav
z
Ju
B U L G A R I A
Kjustendil
Presovo
Urosevac
Prizren
ar
Psaca
Kriva Palanka
Kumanovo
der
Kukes
cin
ja
Blagoevgrad
Str
um
ic
Va
rd
Va
rda
r
Re
k
Gevgelija
Crn
a
Struga
Lake Ohrid
Ohrid
St
Elbasan
mbin
Lake Prespa
Kilkis
Bitola
Lushnje
Florina
E
Gianitsa
Veroia
Kastoria
Ha
lia
liac
Ha
hice
n
mo
* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo
KozaniDeclaration of Independence.
Vijo
s
Thessaloniki
Korce
su
m
Corovode
Tepelene
Edessa
cm
on
Berat
Pogradec
Seres
rym
o
Axios
ev
oll
n
ma
Se
Kucove
Patos
Sandanski
ar
Shku
Kavadarci
Prilep
Tirana
ALBANIA
Radovis
Strumica
Kicevo
Shijak
vaje
ma
Debar
Stip
Veles
ka
Mat
Bulqize
galn
Bre
THE FORMER YUGOSLAV

Burrel
Kruje
Kocani
ica
Sveti Nikole
s
Tre
Gostivar
Peshkopi
Mat
Stru
Skopje
Tetovo
n
Fa
Lezhe
Samokov
Dupnica
25
50
75 km
Katerini
59
Gravena
MONTENEGRO
Exposure
No information availble
Sensitivity
Adaptive capacity
10
Montenegros sensitivity to climate change is

highest for forest ecosystems. Most Montenegrin
forests were established by natural regeneration,
and by virtue of their climate and terrain are
characterized by high biodiversity. They are
important producers of biomass, and are sources
of fruits, medicinal herbs and mushrooms. They
provide habitat for wild plant and animal species;
maintain and regulate the hydrological regime;
provide protection from landslides and erosion;
and absorb significant amounts of carbon.
Montenegros highly diverse ecosystems host rich
flora and fauna about 3,250 plant species, with
the highest vascular flora speciestoarea ratio in
Europe. Of the 526 European bird species, 297
can be regularly found in Montenegro, while about
29 other species are occasionally present.
60
15
20
25
In 2007, Montenegro joined the World Bank

and the International Monetary Fund, and is
actively pursuing membership in the World
Trade Organization. The countrys small national
economy was hit by a 2009 recession caused to
a significant degree by negative global economic
trends including the ongoing credit crunch, a
decline in the real estate sector and a fall in
aluminum exports. Montenegro has privatized its
large aluminum complex the countrys dominant
industry as well as most of its financial sector,
and has begun to attract foreign investment in
tourism. Unemployment and regional disparities
in development remain the key political and
economic problems.
Cacak
Moravica
Sarajevo
Uzice
Konjic
Za
pad
na
Kraljevo
Gorazde
BOSNIA AND
HERZEGOVINA
Trsten
Ib
Ivanjica
Mo
rav
a
Priboj
Foca
Ra
sin
a
Prijepolje
ac
Uv
Lim
Ce
hoti Pljevla
na
Mostar
Raska
Sjenica
Ta
ra
Zabljak
Gacko
Novi Pazar
Bijelo Polje
Ko
ma
rni
ca
Bileca
Mojkovac
Shavnik
Ibar
M O N T E N E G R O
Dubrovnik
Plav
eta
Kotor
Podgorica
Cetinje
Orahovac
Rahoveci
Dakovica
Gyakove
Bajram Curri
ri
iD
Bel
Tivat
K o s o v o *
Ce
m
Herceg-Novi
Pec
Peje
Li
Andrijevica
Budva
Prizren
Lake Skadar
Shkoder
Ulcinj
Bo
a
jan
Kukes
Tetovo
A L B A N I A
Va
rd
Bar
Gostivar
Lezhe
0
25
50
75 km
Mitrovica
Rozaje
Kolasin
Niksic
Trebinje
Berane
Klin
a
Stolac
Peshkopi
Kruje
Shijak
Burrel
Bulqize
Debar
61
Kicevo
SERBIA
Exposure
Sensitivity
Adaptive capacity
10
Like most of its West Balkan neighbours, Serbia

faces exposure to the hazards associated with
rising temperatures. Increasingly frequent and
intensive droughts over the past two decades
have already caused great damage to Serbian
agriculture, and crop production is expected to
decline by as much as 10 per cent in second half
of this century. Projections of precipitation show
increases in some areas and declines in others.
Serbias agricultural sector is an important part
of the national economy, and thus increases the
countrys sensitivity to climate change. Serbian
agriculture employs 10 per cent of the work
force, and accounts for 26 per cent of export
revenues. The country relies on the sector for food
security, and it is an essential component of rural
development.
62
15
20
25
With unfinished privatization and incomplete

structural reforms, the economy of Serbia is still
in transition. The countrys economic challenges
include high government expenditures for
salaries, pensions and unemployment; outdated
technologies; degraded infrastructure; and a low
level of domestic investments. Other problems
include a growing need for new government
borrowing combined with rising public and private
foreign debt and stagnant levels of foreign
investment. An inefficient judicial system, high
levels of corruption and an ageing population
add to the difficulties. Serbias strategic location,
a relatively inexpensive and skilled labour force
and a generous package of incentives for foreign
investments are all factors favourable to economic
growth.
H U N G A R Y
Hodmezovasarhely
Szekszard
H U N G A R Y
Pecs
Szeged
Arad
Alba Iulia
Subotica
Mureshu
l
Sombor
Timishoara
V o j v o d i n a
a
Tis
Osijek
C R O A T I A
R O M A N I A
Zrenjanin
Dan
ube Novi Sad
Tim
ish
Vukovar
Slavonski Brod
Hunedoara
Lugoj
Petrosani
Resita
Targu Jiu
Bijeljina
Sabac
Sav
Pancevo
Belgrade
Jiu
Brcko
Drobeta
Turnu Severin
Valjevo
BOSNIA AND
HERZEGOVINA
Sarajevo
Krusevac
Novi Pazar
Dubrovnik
Mitrovica
Berane
Niksic
Herceg-Novi
Pec
Podgorica
25
50
75
100 km
Bojana
Map produced by ZO Environment Network, March 2012
Kukes
ALBANIA
Lezhe
Sofia
K o s o v o *
Tetovo
Gostivar
Pernik
Vranje
Kjustendil
Kumanovo
Skopje
Blagoevgrad
Kocani
THE FORMER YUGOSLAV

Veles
a
Strum
Shkoder
BULGARIA
Leskovac
Pristina
Prizren
Lake Skadar
Bar
r
Isku
Trebinje
Ibar
Bijelo Polje
MONTENEGRO
Vratsa
rav
Mo
Pljevla
Ta
ra
Montana
Nis
na
J uz
Lim
Mostar
Vidin
be
Danu
Kraljevo
Gorazde
Bor
Kragujevac
Cacak
Uzice
Craiova
Timok
Zvornik
Morava
Smederevo
Tuzla
Burrel
63
KOSOVO*
Exposure
No information availble
Sensitivity
Adaptive capacity
10
The effects of climate change exacerbate

Kosovos* existing environmental problems,
particularly water scarcity and pollution, land
degradation, deforestation and air pollution. Rising
temperatures and disruptions in the precipitation
regime are likely to intensify the stress on
water resources and damage ecosystems and
biodiversity. Agriculture, which comprises about 13
per cent of Kosovo* GDP while employing about
24 per cent of the work force, may suffer water
shortages, heat waves and droughts. The services
sector 65 per cent of GDP is less vulnerable
to climate change than more resource-dependent
sectors such as agriculture and energy. Lignite is
a primary resource in Kosovo*, and its use for the
production of electricity contributes significantly
to GHG emissions, a condition that may continue
as long as economic concerns have priority over
environmental concerns, or until alternatives are
developed.
* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and

is in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo
Declaration of Independence.
64
15
20
25
Kosovo* lacks the institutional and financial

capacity to respond effectively to climate change.
In the transition from a socialist economy to a
market-based economy, Kosovo* has received
substantial international donor support, but the
economy remains weak and unable to sustain
itself. Under the guidance of the United Nations
Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo*, and
with the assistance of international donors,
Kosovo* is working to establish governmental
institutions and a legal system compatible with
European Union law.
Kosovo* joined the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund in 2009. An unemployment
rate of about 45 per cent encourages outmigration
and black market activity, and remittances are an
important part of GDP, but the small economy with
a relatively small trade sector avoided the worst
effects of the global financial crisis. In fact, the
Kosovo* economy grew by 4 per cent in 2009, and
is expected to continue growing.
Ra
sin
a
Prijepolje
Lim
Uv
ac
Raska
Sjenica
Prokuplje
ca
Topli
r
Iba
Dren
Novi Pazar
Kursumlija
A
Leskovac
Lab
Ibar
M O N T E N E G R O
Mitrovica
Mitrovice
Berane
Lausa
Durakovac
im
Pec
Peje
Plav
Klina
Kline
Podujevo
Podujeve
Obilic
Kastrioti
Pristina
Prishtine
Kosovska Kamenica
Kamenica
Kosovo Polje
Fushe Kosova
K o s o v o *
Vranje
Lipljan
Lipjan
Gjilan
Gnjilane
v
or a
aM
n
Juz
m
Ce
Dakovica
Gyakove
Orahovac
Rahoveci
r
li D
Be
Bajram Curri
im
Urosevac
Ferizaj
Drin
Kacanik
Prizren
Presovo
Vitina
Viti
r
Klisu
Kac.
Velika Krusa
e Skadar
Psaca
Kumanovo
Shkoder
Kukes
Lezhe
Saraj
Restelica
Restelice
cin
ja
Ilinden
THE FORMER YUGOSLAV

Sveti Nikole
Bre
Gostivar
0
25
50
75 km
Stip
Veles
ka
s
Tre
Mat
Skopje
Tetovo
Vard
ar
A L B A N I A
Vlasotince
Vucitrn
Vushtrri
Klin
a
Andrijevica
ca
tni
Si
Rozaje
Kolasin
nica
abla
Mojkovac
* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and isPeshkopi

in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence.
Burrel
Kruje
65
Bulqize
Debar
Annual precipitation
Croatia
Serbia
per cent of norm, 1961-1990

120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
1950
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
1970
1980
1980
1990
2000
1990
2000
1960
1970
Albania
Montenegro
1950
1960
1990
2000

1950
1960
1970
1980

No data
Kosovo*
120
No data
100
80
and is in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo
60
1950
66
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Source: ClimateWizard, 2009.
Annual temperature
Croatia
Serbia
C
12
12
11
11
10
10
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
1950
12
12
11
11
10
10
1970
1980
1990
2000
1980
1990
2000
1960
1970
Albania
Montenegro
1950
1960
1980
1990
2000

C
1950
1960
1970

No data
Kosovo*
12
No data
11
10
9

and is in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Source: ClimateWizard, 2009.
67
ADAPTATION IN THE
REGION
ADAPTATION IN
THE REGION
69
COUNTRY PLANS
Four of the six countries in this report included
adaptation plans in their national communications
to the United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change. These plans are outlines
and generic statements of intent to adopt more
detailed strategies related to specific challenges,
and they are indicative of the direction a country is
likely to follow.
In the short term, Albania intends to focus on
improving its monitoring and warning systems for
coastal areas, agriculture and forestry. Longerterm plans contemplate participation in the
Drought Management Centre for Southeastern
Europe; the construction of a range of coastal
protection structures; and the development of land
management strategies such as levelling and
terracing together with water control measures
for agriculture.
Adaptation plans in Bosnia and Herzegovina
centre on coping with drought. Measures under
consideration include modifications in crop
rotation, the application of new technologies
to improve soil structure, the installation of
windbreaks and the establishment of a drought
early warning system. The plans also envision an
information and education campaign related the
public health and climate change.
70
The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia plans

for adaptation contemplate extensive measures
covering several areas water resources,
agriculture, forestry, biodiversity, public health and
tourism. The water resources strategies include
both structural and management initiatives. The
agriculture measures include improvements in
irrigation practices and the expansion of irrigated
areas in combination with other changes in
agricultural practices.
The Montenegro adaptation plans also consider
agriculture, biodiversity and public health, but
have a special focus on coastal zone protection.
The adaptation measures include improvements
in monitoring and infrastructure, and call for the
eventual relocation of 10 per cent to 20 per cent of
the urbanized coastal population.
South-East European Climate Change Framework Action Plan for Adaptation

Summary of proposed activities by sector
Sector
Proposed activities
Public
Health
Perform regular health monitoring

Establish emergency alert systems and data sharing
Conduct impact and adaptation assessments
Water
Resources
Build or modernize irrigation systems in drought-prone areas

Build or rehabilitate flood protection and drainage systems
Expand and modernize the network of meteorological and hydrological stations
Improve national flood and drought insurance schemes
Agriculture
and Forestry
Conduct research on the impacts of climate change on planting dates and cultivars,
and on yields, pests and diseases
Conduct research on the effects of extreme events on agriculture and forestry
Develop databases on droughts and forest fires
Land Use,
Buildings ans
Transportation
Improve design standards for buildings

Incorporate climate change impacts information into the construction,
operations and maintenance of infrastructure projects
Tourism
Develop efficiency standards for new tourist accommodations
Coastal
Zones
Evaluate the impact of sea level rise on groundwater and water availability
Improve early warning and response systems
Biodiversity and
Ecosystems
Conduct research on the impacts of climate change on species survival,

habitat composition and structure, invasive species, and seasonal phenomena
Assess climate change impacts on wetland and mountain ecosystems
Energy
Conduct research on the impacts of climate change on renewable energy sources

Conduct integrated research on the impacts of climate change on water resources
(precipitation and runoff) and energy production and consumption
General
Organize information and awareness campaigns and training programmes

Create and develop maps
Establish early warning systems
Raise awareness
Incorporate climate change adaptation into national and urban plans
Note: Information presented in this table is excerpted from table 2 in the South-East European Climate Change Framework Action Plan for Adaptation.
71
WATER RESOURCES
IN THE BALKANS
Although all of the West Balkan countries have
fresh water resources sufficient to meet the needs
of sustainable development, climate change
is expected to disrupt water regimes. As the
requirements for drinking water grow, and the
demands for hydropower production increase, the
water resources of the region may come under
pressure from users with conflicting interests. New
international boundaries add yet another wrinkle.
Twenty years ago the Balkans had six
international river basins. Now, as a result of the
new international borders, they have thirteen, as
well as four transboundary lake basins. In terms
of exposure and sensitivity, water resources in
the Balkans are particularly vulnerable to climate
change, and what happens in the water sector will
influence what happens in agriculture and energy,
two other highly vulnerable sectors.
The implications for the development of adaptation
strategies are enormous. The water resources
problem is more regional than national in scale,
and effective adaptation in the region cannot
occur on a strict country-by-country basis. This
means that the Balkan countries must work
together on regional adaptive strategies, and that
their capacity to cooperate on mutual problems is
a major element in their overall adaptive capacity.
72
Szombathely
290
to
863
nub
v
Dra
753 985 5581150
Sava
232
113
1570
157
ora
Nere
tv a
MONTENEGRO
Podgorica
Tirana
22
ALBANIA
96
204
S em
an
V jo
Lake
Ohrid
146
se
52
Discharge scheme of the West Balkans

10
50
100
500 1000
Khaskovo
Krdzhali
Prespa
Lakes
Slive
Gabrovo
Tundzh
77
MACEDONIA
Veliko Trnovo
Stara-Zagora
Dimitrovgrad
ma
Stru
57
Crna
I T A L Y
350
Skopje
66
318 116
Sofia
Drin
ar
B U L G A R I A
Kosovo*
320
Raz
ok
104
rd
Va
Lake Skadar
682
93
va
ora
S. M
92
va
Giurgiu
Ruse
Danub
e
Tim
57
31
336
BUCURET
5683
Great
Morava
111
154
W.
M
Zeta
342
S E R B I A
Ib a
Braov
Ploieti
5684
235
1722
in a
Dr
tina
Ce
180
231
R O M A N I A
5600 5678
395
HERZEGOVINA
is
Tam
Buz
Belgrade
BOSNIA AND
Sarajevo
41
792
1179
Bos
na
a
Un
Vrb
as
197
Tisza
802
R O A T I A
One
Sfntu
Gheorghe
2607
314
274 C
K u pa
Da
Zagreb
Rom
Bac
H U N G A R Y
525
168
Piatra
Neam
Bistria
SLOVENIA
Ljubljana
Bala
182
Zlau
Siret
A U S T R I A
Szkesfehrvr
(2350 Budapest)
Veszprm
Evro
Graz
A G E A N
S E A
Annual mean discharge in m/s

Sources: United Nations Economic Commission for Europe: Second Assessment of Transboundary Rivers, Lakes and Groundwaters, 2011 ( www.unece.org/env/water); Sava River Basin Analysis Report,
International Sava River Basin Commission, 2009 ( www.savacommission.org); Jaroslav Cerni Institute ( www.jcerni.org); Wikipedia article Seman on 21 December ( http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seman);
Wikipedia article Vjosa on 21 December ( http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vjosa); Wikipedia article Tisza on 21 December ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tisza).
73
Ya
REGIONAL INITIATIVES
All six of the West Balkan countries covered in
this report are founding members of the Drought
Management Centre for Southeastern Europe,
the mission of which is to coordinate and facilitate
the development, assessment and application
of drought risk management tools and policies in
South-Eastern Europe with the goals of improving
drought preparedness and reducing drought
impacts. These goals fit comfortably in adaptation
plans, and by virtue of their participation in the
Drought Management Centre the countries stand
to advance their knowledge and capacity.
In its national communication to the UNFCCC,
Bosnia and Herzegovina makes a strong case for
a regional approach to climate change adaptation,
and suggests that the provision of water, energy,
transport and communications is enhanced by
regional cooperation. In this spirit, five of the
West Balkan countries all but Croatia reached
agreement on a South-East European Climate
Change Framework Action Plan for Adaptation
creating a common platform for subregional
cooperation on climate change.
organizations; and improving the availability and

applicability of climate modelling in the region. The
plan also identifies the improvements in knowledge
and capacity necessary to reduce the risks
associated with climate change and to incorporate
socio-economic considerations into the analysis.
Most of the proposed actions in the plan are
preliminary steps information and awareness
campaigns, training, research, assessment, map
ping and analysis. The focus on such basic mea
sures reveals how far the West Balkan countries
have to go in order to develop concrete adaptation
measures. A close reading of the list raises a number
of questions: Who does what? How? In what time
frame? At what level of analysis local, subnational,
national or regional? And how does the preliminary
work, once completed, get used to develop specific
adaptation programmes and projects?
The plan does not go to the level of detail of

specific programmes or adaptation projects, but
rather provides a comprehensive framework that
the countries can follow to develop their own. It
begins with the fundamentals strengthening
the systems for climate observations, monitoring
and forecasting; improving the quality of data
and database management; enhancing the
capacity to work with the regional and international
The West Balkans are still developing their

institutions, but progress is evident. All six of the
West Balkan countries have participated in projects
funded by the United Nations Development
Programme Global Environment Facility, and as
result have enhanced their capacity to manage
climate change adaptation. Through the process
of complying with UNFCCC assessment and
reporting requirements, the countries have already
demonstrated an increased awareness and know
ledge of climate change. In addition, all of the West
Balkans countries and Kosovo* participate in the
Dinaric Arc and Balkans Environment Outlook, a
platform for integrated environmental assessments.
74
* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and

is in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo
The South-East European Climate Change

Frame
work Action Plan for Adaptation is a
regional forum with a promising beginning, but
has no institutional or political authority, and other
models for regional cooperation may be able to
incorporate the plan into a stronger scheme with
international partners and the opportunity for
significant funding.
The EU Stabilisation and Association process
could become the organizing focus for a regional
approach to adaptation. As part of this process,
the EU finances the Regional Environmental Network for Accession (RENA). All of the West Balkan
countries are already engaged in the process, and
the RENA structure offers a logical place for the
coordination of regional adaptation strategies, but
whether the EU would consider taking responsibility for the additional mission is an open question.
The scheme makes more sense for the period of
transition to EU membership than it does in the
long run.
transboundary mountain regions. They relate more

to the Convention on Biological Diversity than to
the UNFCCC, but a Dinaric Arc Convention could
nevertheless provide a platform for regional climate
change adaptation strategies, and may be able to
bring all the existing agreements together under
one roof.
Any new scheme designed to coordinate adaptation
in the West Balkans would do well to consider the
array of organizations, programmes, initiatives and
agreements currently contributing to adaptation
projects and strategies in the region. The idea of
having one comprehensive regional adaptation
mechanism may be attractive, but in light of the
myriad efforts already in place, the best overall
approach may emerge from a recognition of what
each component can contribute to the cause.
The Alpine and Carpathian Conventions

each of which provides a platform for cooperation
for environmental protection and sustainable
development offer a template for the Balkans,
and the United Nations Environment Programme
is an independent player who may be able
to assist in the development of a Dinaric Arc
Convention. The existing conventions and the
prospective Balkan convention arose from the
recognition of transboundary issues related to
ecosystem protection, and all three are defined by
75
ALL THINGS CONSIDERED

Croatia, with its higher adaptive capacity and
lower exposure and sensitivity, is the least
vulnerable country in the region, while Albanias
high exposure and sensitivity rank it as the most
vulnerable. Each of the countries faces its own
challenges with political and economic stability,
demographic changes and institution-building,
among others. The generally low adaptive capacity
rankings reflect the difficulty of these challenges
and the relatively short time the countries have
had to make progress. The individual country
adaptation plans and the South-East European
Climate Change Framework Action Plan are
promising beginnings, and participation in the
Global Environment Facility, the Dinaric Arc
and Balkans Environment Outlook and the EU
Stabilisation and Association process are further
evidence of progress.
76
All of this work lays the foundation for the even

more challenging regional work that lies ahead.
A regional strategy for the management of water
resources appears to be the key to successful
climate change adaptation in the Balkans.
The water resources in the region have a high
exposure and sensitivity to climate change, and
the fates of the agricultural and energy sectors
are closely tied to the water sector. In addition,
the international implications of an environmental
catastrophe resulting from a flood that wipes out
an abandoned mine tailings facility are too serious
to ignore. With so many transboundary river and
lake basins, the countries of the region have the
best chance of managing their water resources in
cooperative fashion, whether through an existing
agreement or a new one or a series of bilateral
efforts.
Zalaegerszeg
n
to
Bala
Klagenfurt
Banja Luka
Osijek
a
Un
Ta
mi
Belgrade
tina
Ce
Sarajevo
Morava
Kragujevac
MONTENEGRO
Dubrovnik
Podgorica
Napoli
Salerno
Potenza
Taranto
Kosovo*
Tirana
Pernik
Gostivar
MACEDONIA
Lecce
Sem
Vlor
an
se
Ioannina
Kerkyra
Crotone
Kavala
Kastoria
Vjo
E
Larisa
A G E A N
Volos
Arta
Catanzaro
Lamia
S E A
Major watersheds in the West Balkans

Sources: Zinke Environment Consulting ( www.zinke.at) and Fluvius Floodplain Ecology and River Basin Management ( http://fluvius.com).
Slive
Gabrovo
Tundzh
Stara-Zagora
Dimitrovgrad
Krdzhali
Thessaloniki
Korche
G
Cosenza
Serres
Bitola
Veliko Trnovo
Khaskovo
Blagoevgrad
Veles
ALBANIA
Brindisi
Plovdiv
Kyustendil
Skopje
Durrs
Bari
I T A L Y
Sofia
uma
Str
Benevento
B U L G A R I A
Pristina
Drin
Shkoder
Bar
Pleven
Vratsa
ar
Manfredonia
Giurgiu
Ruse
Raz
Leskovac
rd
Va
S
Foggia
Bijelo Polje
Zeta
Pescara
Nere
tv a
BUCURET
Danube
Vidin
Nis
Novi Pazar
Ploieti
Piteshti
Craiova
Bor
Braov
Buz
Olt
S E R B I A
ina
Dr
Bos
na
Brcko
Tuzla
Sibiu
One
Sfntu
Gheorghe
Ramnicu
Valcea
Mostar
res
Mu
l
hu
R O M A N I A
Panchevo
HERZEGOVINA
Split
Deva
Timishoara
Novi Sad
Slavonski Brod
BOSNIA AND
Zadar
Arad
Timok
Vrb
as
Sav
be
Danu
Pula
Subotica
C R O A T I A
Karlovac K u p a
Szeged
Rom
Bac
Cluj-Napoca
Tisza
av
Dr
Zagreb
Ljubljana
Rijeka
Kecskemet
Pecs
Piatra
Neam
Bistria
H U N G A R Y
SLOVENIA
Trieste
Zlau
Siret
A U S T R I A
Szkesfehrvr
Veszprm
Evro
Szombathely
Graz
77
Ya
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CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

ENVSEC, Zo environment network, 2012

Editorial and production team:

The views expressed in this document are those of the authors

Design and layout:

The designations employed and the presentation of the material

Photos Goran Pozek

Printed on 100% recycled paper with the use of technologies that

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

stability are crucial to a countrys or a regions

Air temperature change (last half century)

Precipitation change (last half century)

Extreme weather events and

Health infectious and

Policy instruments, actions and awareness

Climate observation and weather services

mostly increasing, improving

Decrease is expected, although further studies are required.

Produced by ZO Environment Network, 2012.

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

GDP in the West Balkans

Democracy, economic development and even

The former Yugoslav

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with

B U L GAR IA OTTO MAN

After Balkan Wars

After Balkan Wars

After World War II

After World War II

After World War II

THE FORMER YUGOSLAV

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

Map produced by ZO Environment Network, February 2012.

THE FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF

Population in the West Balkans

The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status,

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

The overall populations in Croatia, Montenegro and

Population redistributions have disrupted the

Population over 64 years old

percentage of total population and absolute number per country in 2010

The former Yugoslav

Source: United Nations, 2011.

(inhabitants per km)

Map produced by ZO Environment Network, March 2012.

THE FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

International migrant stock is the number of

Absolute number of people per age category in 2010

Bosnia and Herzegovina

350 230 115

The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status,

Source: US Census, 2011.

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

All of these demographic changes reduce the

Internal migration is also an issue in the West

Population displacement, 1991-2001

Emigration from the West Balkans

10 000 100 000 250 000 500 000

The former Yugoslav

Bosnia and Herzegovina