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FOREWORD:
FrOm tHE PrESIDEnt AnD tHE CEO
Dear Members,
Dear Friends of SolarPower Europe,
Welcome to the new edition of the
Global Market Outlook, the first
publication of the new era of the
European Photovoltaic Industry
Association (EPIA). As the European
solar sector has matured into a
leading player in the European
electricity market, so to have we
grown and evolved into a new
organisation that reflects your
needs the needs of the European
solar sector today.
OlIvEr SCHFEr
PrESIDEnt
jAmES wAtSOn
CHIEF ExECutIvE OFFICEr
TABLE OF CONTENT
ExECutIvE SummArY
1
2
3
4
5
SOLAR POWER:
tECHnOlOGY AnD InDuStrY trEnDS
18
26
30
The
540 GW
mark at a global
level could be
reached in five
years time.
Project managers & lead authors: manol rekinger, Frauke thies, SolarPower Europe.
Research and co-authors: Gatan masson, Sinead Orlandi, Becquerel Institute.
External contributors: APEre, APrEn, assorinnovabili, BPvA, BSw Solar, Bridge to India, CAnSIA, CZEPHO, EDOrA, EnErPlAn, Fronius, AnIE rinnoabili, HElAPCO,
Holland Solar, HuPIA, IEA-PvPS, jPEA, KOPIA, Pv AuStrIA, Pv russia, Pv Poland, Pv vlaanderen, rPIA, SAPI, SASIA, SEDA, SEIA, SEmI taiwan, Solartrade Association,
Swissolar, unEF, wESm.
Information oustide Europe has been provided by Pv mArKEt AllIAnCE: AECEA (China), Becquerel Institute, CrEArA (latin America), rtS Corporation (Asia) and
SPv market research (uSA).
Design: Onehemisphere, Sweden. illustrations: tashechka, hobbit, elic, shutterstock.
Supported by: Intersolar Europe.
Disclaimer: Please note that all historical figures provided in this brochure are valid at the time of publication and will be revised when new and proven figures are
available. All forecast figures are based on SolarPower Europe knowledge at the time of publication. Please also note that forecast figures have been rounded.
SolarPower Europes methodology includes only systems connected to the grid and not those that have been installed but not yet connected. the dierence between
installations and systems connected to the grid can be quite significant in some cases. Installed capacity considers all photovoltaic technologies.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
178 GW
of Solar Power
are now installed
in the world.
1
SOLAR POWER:
tECHnOlOGY AnD InDuStrY trEnDS
Photo courtesy of First Solar
75%
Low Irradiation
16
14
Low Irradiation
12
Low Irradiation
10
ctEUR2014/kWh
High Irradiation
High Irradiation
4
High Irradiation
0
Wind
Onshore
Wind
Offshore
Solar PV
Large scale
10% WACC
Solar PV
Large scale
6.5% WACC
Solar PV
Large scale
3% WACC
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Sources:
SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2015
Solar Photovoltaic Large Scale: Agora Energiewende - LCOE Model. Wind: IRENA. Gas, Coal, Nuclear: Ecofys.
1 SOLAR POWER:
tECHnOlOGY AnD InDuStrY trEnDS / COntInuED
2
GLOBAL SOLAR MARKET:
uPDAtE AnD PrOSPECtS
Photo courtesy of Hanau Energies
40 GW
50,000
40,134
40,000
30,000
MW
20,000
10,000
0
2000
2001
Europe
2002
2003
APAC
2004
2005
Americas
2006
2007
China
2008
2009
MEA
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
RoW
SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2015
200,000
178,391
150,000
MW
100,000
50,000
0
2000
2001
Europe
2002
2003
APAC
2004
2005
Americas
2006
2007
China
2008
2009
MEA
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
RoW
SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2015
100,000
86,494
80,000
60,000
47,285
MW
40,134
40,000
20,000
0
2010
2011
Historical data
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Low scenario
2017
High scenario
2018
2019
Medium scenario
SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2015
600,000
540,009
500,000
400,000
396,146
MW
300,000
178,391
200,000
100,000
0
2010
2011
Historical data
2012
2013
2014
Low scenario
2015
2016
2017
High scenario
2018
2019
Medium scenario
SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2015
FIGURE 6 SCENARIOS FOR SOLAR PV ROOFTOP AND UTILITY SCALE SEGMENTS DEVELOPMENT UNTIL 2019
Rooftop
50,000
Utility Scale
50,000
49,348
40,000
40,000
37,146
30,000
30,000
24,079
23,206
MW
MW
21,084
19,050
20,000
20,000
10,000
10,000
0
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Historical data
2019
2014
Low scenario
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
High scenario
SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2015
1.8
19
GW
World
0.14
GW
Chile
Number of people
powered by solar in 2014
Cumulative installed
capacity in 2014
PV penetration 2014
Cumulative installed
capacity in 2019
0.4
(<1%)
million
GW
(3.5%)
89
0 GW - 2 GW
2 GW - 15 GW
15 GW - 80 GW
>80 GW
million
GW
158
million
55
GW
(1%)
GW
59
540
178
GW
(<1%)
million
USA
17.2
Europe
million
0.3
(<1%)
0.9
GW
South Africa
11.1
(<1%)
million
6.6
GW
(<1%)
28
million
GW
54
GW
114
(2%)
12
GW
0.5
million
Australia
23
Japan
GW
(2.5%)
GW
The complete report Global Market Outlook for Solar Power 2015-2019
and all figures can be downloaded on www.solarpowereurope.org
*All figures included in the map have been rounded.
India
China
million
3.1
59
3
THE EUROPEAN SOLAR MARKET:
StAtE OF PlAY AnD OutlOOK
Photo courtesy of SunPower Corporation
integrate
25,000
20,000
15,000
MW
10,000
6,950
5,000
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Italy
United Kingdom
Czech Republic
Bulgaria
Rest of Europe
France
Belgium
Romania
Austria
Germany
Spain
Greece
Netherlands
Denmark
2014
the most concerning trend is the current holdup of oncebooming markets. retrospective measures and new
barriers have transformed several countries into investment
deserts: Spain, Bulgaria and the Czech republic are now
considered as unreliable countries for investements.
100,000
88,636
80,000
60,000
MW
40,000
20,000
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
rest of Europe
Italy
France
Czech republic
Greece
Germany
Spain
Belgium
united Kingdom
romania
2013
2014
100
90
80
70
60
%
50
40
30
20
10
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
itz
er
la
nd
Sw
Sl
ov
ak
ia
Be
lg
iu
m
Au
st
ria
Po
la
nd
Po
rtu
ga
l
N
et
he
rla
nd
s
De
nm
ar
k
Ita
ly
G
re
ec
e
Re
pu
bl
ic
G
er
m
an
y
Fr
an
ce
C
ze
ch
Ki
ng
do
m
Sp
ai
n
U
ni
te
d
Bu
lg
ar
ia
Ro
m
an
ia
Utility scale
SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2015
Cumulative Installed
Capacity 2014 (mw DC)
Austria
140
767
Belgium
65
3,104
Bulgaria
1,022
Croatia
13
33
Czech Republic
2,134
Denmark
47
608
France
927
5,632
1,898
38,235
Greece
17
2,596
Italy
385
18,313
Malta
23
Netherlands
400
1,042
Poland
27
34
Portugal
115
414
Romania
72
1,223
Slovakia
0.4
524
Spain
22
5,388
Switzerland
320
1,046
Turkey
40
58
2,402
5,230
Germany
United Kingdom
Political support
prospects
25,000
20,000
17,221
15,000
MW
10,000
6,988
6,950
5,000
0
2010
2011
Historical data
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Low scenario
2017
High scenario
2018
2019
Medium scenario
SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2015
158,156
160,000
120,000
121,087
88,636
MW
80,000
40,000
0
2010
2011
Historical data
2012
2013
2014
Low scenario
2015
2016
2017
High scenario
2018
2019
Medium scenario
SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2015
4
SOLAR IN THE EUROPEAN
ELECTRICITY SYSTEM:
A DEmO-PrOjECt FOr tHE wOrlD
Photo courtesy of SunPower Corporation
7%
10
9
8
7
6
%
3.5%
4
3
2
1
PV penetration
Self-consumption
Net-billing
rtu
ga
l
Au
st
ria
N
et
he
rla
nd
s
Po
C
yp
ru
s
Fr
an
ce
an
ia
Sl
ov
en
ia
Sl
ov
ak
ia
De
nm
U
ni
ar
te
k
d
Ki
ng
do
m
Ro
m
Sp
ai
n
lg
ar
To
ia
ta
lE
ur
op
e
Be
lg
C
iu
ze
m
ch
Re
pu
bl
ic
an
y
Bu
G
er
m
re
ec
e
G
Ita
ly
Net-metering
SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2015
For the fifth year in a row, Pv was one of the three most
installed sources of electricity in Europe together with
wind and gas. Since 2000, these three energy sources
15,000
11,791
10,000
6,574
2,339
MW
990
436
68
45
13
Fuel Oil
CSP
Nuclear
Peat
-5,000
Decommissioned Installed
3,305
5,000
-10,000
Wind
Solar PV
Renewables
Coal
Gas
Biomass
Solar PV
Hydro
Fossil Fuels
Decommissioned
FIGURE 14 NET POWER GENERATION CAPACITIES ADDED IN THE EU 28 BETWEEN 2000 AND 2014
140,000
116,760
120,000
101,277
86,574
100,000
80,000
60,000
MW
7,778
20,000
6,965
2,309
2,196
250
143
14
0
-20,000
-13,190
-24,746 -25,294
-40,000
Wind
Gas
Renewables
Source: SolarPower Europe, EWEA.
Solar PV
Biomass
Solar PV
Hydro
CSP
Fossil Fuels
Waste Geo-Thermal
Peat
Ocean
Nuclear
Coal
Fuel Oil
Decommissioned
SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2015
Decommissioned Installed
40,000
more than half a century ago, the graph shows how most
of todays coal power plants stem from around the 1960s
to the 1990s, while nuclear experienced its peak in the
1970s to 1990s. As these plants retire, more recent
investments were clearly focussed on gas, and now also on
renewables, like wind and solar power, that are dominating
the new investment cycle in the electricity sector.
50,000
Coal
Oil
100,000
Gas
150,000
Nuclear
200,000
250,000
Renewables
FIGURE 16 SOLAR PV CUMULATIVE CAPACITY FORECAST COMPARED TO SOLARPOWER EUROPES 2030 SCENARIOS
15%
500
400
10%
300
GW
8%
200
4%
100
84 GW
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
High scenario
Low scenario
Historical data
EPIA, Connecting the Sun: Solar photovoltaics on the road to large-scale grid integration, 2012.
The percentage indicates the share of electricity demand.
Cumulative installed
capacity in 2019
158
GW
>3,000 MW
Cumulative installed
capacity in 2014
PV penetration 2014
89
GW
(3.5%)
1,000-3,000 MW
500-1,000 MW
200-500 MW
17.2
Number of people
powered by solar in 2014
million
100-200 MW
0-100 MW
UK
0.9
19
million
GW
5
GW
(1.4%)
5.1
50
million
GW
38
GW
(7.1%)
Germany
0.9
13
million
GW
6
GW
(1.4%)
France
Turkey
Italy
23
Spain
9
5 GW
1.4
million
GW
(3.0%)
GW
4.4
million
11
0.03
million
18
GW
0.06
GW
(<1%)
GW
(7.9%)
The complete report Global Market Outlook for Solar Power 2015-2019
and all figures can be downloaded on www.solarpowereurope.org
*All figures included in the map have been rounded.
5
AN OUTLOOK
FOR SOLAR POWER
Photo courtesy of First Solar
A large part of solar power development until the end of 2014 has been driven by
financial incentives or ad hoc support schemes. In the end, its sustained
deployment will depend on its ability to compete with conventional sources of
electricity. In the short term, the global solar market will remain driven by countries
using supporting frameworks, e.g. in Asia and America. low and decreasing prices
are changing the mentalities of policymakers across the world, and the recognition
that solar Pv is a low-cost, low carbon power source, which could become a
significant part of the electricity mix of the future, is spreading fast.
the existence of forward-looking and reliable framework conditions for this
transition of the electricity mix will be a key factor of success. with solar Pv system
prices decreasing at a slower pace than in the past years, the main driver for lower
solar electricity generation costs will be the decrease of the cost of capital. to
bring down these costs, investor certainty benefits from the inherently low risk
of the technology, but it also depends on the external market conditions.
An integrative perspective on the evolution of the energy system and market
design will be essential to allow for the sustainable and increasingly
market-driven uptake of solar power, and the move towards a flexible, clean
and aordable energy supply. A new paradigm will emerge, in which variable
but predictable power generation from solar and wind power will form the
new basis of our energy system, complemented with flexibility resources like
a smart grid network, flexible power generation technologies like gas, the use
of storage, and a more active participation of the demand-side.
Solar power needs a forward-looking investment and market framework
just as much as the society and our economies need reliable, clean and
sustainable energy sources. Understanding this fact will pave the way for
a bright solar PV future, in Europe and globally.
SolarPower Europe
(European Photovoltaic Industry Association)
rue dArlon 69-71, 1040 Brussels, Belgium
t +32 2 709 55 20 / F +32 2 725 32 50
info@solarpowereurope.org / www.solarpowereurope.org
ISBn 9789082228410