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KwiatuszewskaSarneckaMODELSOFRELIABILITYANDAVAILABILITYIMPROVEMENTOFSERIESANDPARALLELSYSTEMS
RELATEDTOTHEIROPERATIONPROCESSES
RT&A#02(17)
(Vol.1)2010,June
ABSTRACT
Integrated general models of approximate approaches of complex multi-state series and parallel systems, linking their
reliability and availability improvement models and their operation processes models caused changing reliability and
safety structures and components reliability characteristics in different operation states, are constructed. These joint
models are applied to determining improved reliability and availability characteristics of the considered multi-state
series and parallel systems related to their varying in time operation processes. The conditional reliability characteristics
of the multi-state systems with hot, cold single reservation of component and the conditional reliability characteristics
of the multi-state systems with reduced rate of departure by a factor of system components are defined.
INTRODUCTION
Taking Most real transportation systems are very complex. Large numbers of components and
subsystems and their operating complexity cause that the evaluation and optimization of their
reliability improvement and availability improvement is complicated. A convenient tool for solving
this problem is semi-markov modeling of the systems operation processes combining with three
methods of reliability and availability improvement proposed in this paper. Therefore, the common
usage of the systems reliability and availability improvement models and the semi-markov model
for the systems operation process modeling in order to construct the joint general system reliability
and availability improvement model related to its operation process is proposed.
.
2
We assume that the reliability of a single system component can be improved by using hot or
cold reserve of this component or by replacing this component by an improved component with the
reduced rates of departure from the reliability state subset {u , u + 1,... z} by a factor
(u ), 0 < (u ) < 1, u = 1,2,,z. Further, we assume that the basic and reserve component have the
same multi-state exponential reliability function. If basic and reserve components of the multi-state
system at the operational state z b , b = 1,2,..., , have the same exponential reliability functions
given by
[ Ri (t ,)] ( b ) = [1, [ Ri (t ,1)] ( b ) , K , [ Ri (t , z )] ( b ) ], t (,), b = 1,2,..., ,
(1)
where
[ Ri (t , u )] ( b ) = 1 for t < 0, [ Ri (t , u )] ( b ) = exp[ (i b ) (u )t ] for t 0, (i b ) (u ) > 0,
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(3)
where
[ Ri(1) (t , u )] ( b ) = 1 [[ Fi (t , u )] ( b ) ] 2 = 1 , t < 0,
[ Ri(1) (t , u )] ( b ) = 1 [[ Fi (t , u )] ( b ) ] 2 = 2 exp[ (i b ) (u )t ] exp[ 2 (i b ) (u )t ] , t 0,
(4)
where
(5)
[ Ri( 2 ) (t , u )] ( b ) = 1 [[ Fi (t , u )] ( b ) [ Fi (t , u )] ( b ) ] = 1 , t < 0,
(6)
[ Ri( 2 ) (t , u )] ( b ) = 1 [[ Fi (t , u )] ( b ) [ Fi (t , u )] ( b ) ] = [1 + (i b ) (u )t ]] exp[ i( b ) (u )t ] , t 0,
(c) the exponential reliability function of multi-state system component with the reduced rate of
departure by a factor (u ), u = 1,2,..., z , at the operational state z b , b = 1,2,..., , is respectively
given by
(7)
[ Ri( 3) (t ,)] ( b ) = [1, [ Ri( 3) (t ,1)] ( b ) , K , [ Ri( 3) (t , z )] ( b ) ] t (,), b = 1,2,..., ,
where
(8)
[ Ri( 3) (t , u )] ( b ) = 1 for t < 0, [ Ri( 3) (t , u )] ( b ) = exp[ (i b ) (u ) (u )t ] for t 0,
3
(t , u ) = pb [ (t , u )]( b ) , u = 1,2,..., z ,
b =1
is called a limit reliability function of a multi-state system in its operation process with reliability function
Rn (t , u ) p b [ Rn (t , u )]( b ) , u = 1,2,..., z ,
b =1
where
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B.KwiatuszewskaSarneckaMODELSOFRELIABILITYANDAVAILABILITYIMPROVEMENTOFSERIESANDPARALLELSYSTEMS
RELATEDTOTHEIROPERATIONPROCESSES
bMb
pb = lim p b (t ) =
l M l
RT&A#2(17)
(Vol.1)2010,June
, b = 1,2,..., v,
l =1
are the limit values of the transient probabilities at the particular operation states
pb (t ) = P(Z(t) = zb ) , t < 0,+ ), b = 1,2,..., v,
and the probabilities b of the vector [ b ]1 x satisfy the system of equations
[ b ] = [ b ][ p bl ]
v
l = 1.
l
=1
if there exist normalising constants
t bn(b ) (u )
Rn (t , u ) pb [ ( (b )
, u )](b ) , t ( , ), u = 1,2,..., z.
b =1
a n (u )
v
The following propositions are concerned with the homogeneous exponential systems i.e. the systems which
components have at operational states zb , b = 1,2,..., v, exponential reliability functions.
Proposition 3.1
If components of the homogeneous multi-state series system at the operational state z b have exponential
reliability functions and the system have:
(a) a single hot reservation of system components and
a n( b ) (u ) =
(u) n
(b)
then
where
(1)
(1)
(t ,) = [1,
(1)
(t ,1),K,
(t , u ) = 1 for t < 0,
(1)
(1)
(t , z )], t (-,),
v
(t , u ) = p b exp[ t 2 ] for t 0,
b =1
is its unconditional multi-state limit reliability function. Hence, the following exact formulae is valid
R n(1) (t ,) = [1, R n(1) (t ,1) ,..., Rn(1) (t , z ) ],
where
v
(9)
(10)
(11)
(12)
where
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B.KwiatuszewskaSarneckaMODELSOFRELIABILITYANDAVAILABILITYIMPROVEMENTOFSERIESANDPARALLELSYSTEMS
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( 2) (t , u) = 1 for t < 0,
( 2)
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is its unconditional multi-state limit reliability function. Hence the following approximate formulae
is valid
(15)
R n( 2 ) (t ,) = [1, R n( 2 ) (t ,1) ,..., R n( 2 ) (t , z ) ],
where
v
(b) (u) n 2
(2)
( 2)
t ) ] , t 0, u = 1,2,..., z , (16)
R n (t , u ) = 1 for t < 0, R n (t , u ) pb exp[(
b =1
2
(c) components with the reduced rate of departure by a factor (u ), u = 1,2,..., z , and
a n( b ) (u ) =
(b )
1
(b )
, b n (u ) = 0, u = 1,2,...,z, b = 1,2,..., v,
(u ) (u ) n
then
where
( 3)
(t , u ) = 1 for t < 0,
( 3)
(t , u ) = p b exp[ t ] , t 0, u = 1,2,...,z,
b =1
(17)
(18)
is its unconditional multi-state limit reliability function. Hence the following exact formulae is valid
(19)
R n( 3) (t ,) = [1, R n( 3 ) (t ,1) ,..., R n( 3 ) (t , z ) ],
where
v
(20)
Proposition 3.2
If components of the homogeneous multi-state parallel system at the operational state z b have
exponential reliability functions and the system have
(a) a single hot reservation of system components and
a n( b ) (u ) =
1
1
, b n( b ) (u ) = ( b )
log 2 n , u = 1,2,...,z, b = 1,2,..., v,
(u )
(u )
(b )
then
where
(21)
(22)
is its unconditional multi-state limit reliability function. Hence the following approximate formulae
is valid
(23)
R n(1) (t ,) = [1, R n(1) (t ,1),..., R n(1) (t , z )] ,
where
v
214
(24)
(25)
(26)
B.KwiatuszewskaSarneckaMODELSOFRELIABILITYANDAVAILABILITYIMPROVEMENTOFSERIESANDPARALLELSYSTEMS
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(27)
is its unconditional multi-state limit reliability function, hence, the following approximate formulae
is valid
(28)
R n( 2 ) (t ,) = [1, R n( 2 ) (t ,1),..., R n( 2 ) (t , z )] ,
where
v
(29)
(c) components with the reduced rate of departure by a factor (u ), u = 1,2,..., z , and
a n( b ) (u ) =
(b )
1
1
, b n( b ) (u ) = ( b )
log n , u = 1,2,...,z, b = 1,2,..., v,
(u ) ( u )
(u ) (u )
then
where
(30)
(31)
is its unconditional multi-state limit reliability function hence, the following approximate formulae
is valid
(32)
R n( 3) (t ,) = [1, R n( 3) (t ,1) ,..., Rn(3) (t , z ) ],
where
v
(33)
We assume similarly as in non renewal systems considered in Point 3 that the changes of the
process Z(t) states have an influence on the multi-state system reliability structure. The main
characteristics of multi-state renewal system with hot, cold single reservation of system components
and system with improved components reliability related to their operation process can be
approximately determined by taking account described systems operation process properties.
Proposition 4.1
If components of the multi-state renewal system with non-ignored time of renovation at the
operational states zb , b = 1,2,..., v, have exponential reliability functions and the time of the system
renovation has the mean value [ o ( r )] ( b ) and the standard deviation [ o2 ( r )] ( b ) , then:
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(k )
i) the distribution function of the time S N (r ) , k = 1,2,3, until the Nth systems renovation, for
sufficiently large N, has approximately normal distribution
2
N ( N ( ( k ) (r ) + o (r )), N ( ( k ) (r ) + o2 (r )) )
i.e.,
(k )
= (N )
(t , r ) = P(S N
(k )
(r ) < t ) FN ( 0,1) ( k ) (
t N ( ( k ) ( r ) + o (r ))
N (
(k ) 2
(r ) + (r ))
),
2
o
E[ S N
(k )
(r )] N ( ( k ) (r ) + o (r )) , D[ S N
(t , r ) = P(S N
(k )
(k )
(k )
(k )
( r )] N ( ( k ) ( r ) + o2 ( r )) , r {1,2,..., z},
(r ) < t ) FN ( 0,1) ( k ) (
t N ( ( k ) (r ) + o (r )) + o (r )
2
N ( ( k ) ( r ) + o2 ( r )) o2 ( r )
),
iv) the expected value and the variance of the time S N (r ) , k = 1,2,3, until the Nth exceeding the
reliability critical state r of this system take respectively forms
E[ S N
(k )
( r )] N ( k ) ( r ) + ( N 1) o (r ) , D[ S N
(k )
(r )] N ( k ) (r ) + ( N 1) o2 (r ) , r {1,2,..., z},
(k )
( N + 1)( ( k ) (r ) + o (r )) t
2
t
( ( k ) (r ) + o2 (r ))
(k )
(r ) + 0 (r )
vi) the expected value and the variance of the number N ( k ) (t , r ) , k = 1,2,3, of systems renovations
up to the moment t , t 0, take respectively forms
H ( k ) (t , r )
(k )
t
,
(r ) + o (r )
D ( k ) (t , r )
(k )
2
t
2
( ( k ) ( r ) + o ( r )), r {1, 2,..., z},
3
( r ) + o ( r ))
(k )
vii) the distribution of the number N (t , r ) , k = 1,2,3, of exceeding the reliability critical state r of
this system up to the moment t , t 0, is of the form
(k )
P( N
(t , r ) = N ) FN ( 0,1)
(k )
N ( ( k ) (r ) + o (r )) t 0 (r )
t + 0 (r )
2
( ( k ) (r ) + o2 (r ))
(k )
(r ) + 0 (r )
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B.KwiatuszewskaSarneckaMODELSOFRELIABILITYANDAVAILABILITYIMPROVEMENTOFSERIESANDPARALLELSYSTEMS
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FN ( 0,1)
(k )
( N + 1)( ( k ) (r ) + o (r )) t 0 (r )
t + 0 (r )
2
( ( k ) (r ) + o2 (r ))
(k )
(r ) + 0 (r )
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viii) the expected value and the variance of the number N ( k ) (t , r ) , k = 1,2,3, of exceeding the
reliability critical state r of this system up to the moment t , t 0, for sufficiently large t, are
approximately respectively given by
(k )
(k )
t + 0 (r )
t + 0 (r )
2
2
H (t , r ) ( k )
, D (t , r ) ( k )
( ( k ) (r ) + o (r )), r {1,2,..., z},
3
(r ) + o (r )
( (r ) + o (r ))
ix) the availability coefficient of the system at the moment t is given by the formula
( k ) (r )
K ( k ) (t , r ) ( k )
, t 0, r {1, 2,..., z},
(r ) + o (r )
x) the availability coefficient of the system in the time interval < t , t + ), > 0, is given by the
formula
K ( k ) (t , , r )
(k )
1
R n (t , r ) dt , t 0, > 0, r {1,2,..., z},
(k )
(r ) + o (r )
, r {1,2,..., z},
(1) (r ) pb (b )
b =1
2 (r )n
+
(1)
(34)
Fn
(1)
(t , r ) = 1 R n
(1)
(t , r ), t ( , ),
(1)
( 2) (r ) p b
b =1
( r ) 2n
(b)
( 2)
[ ( 2) (r )]2 = t 2 dFn
, r {1,2,..., z},
(35)
(t , r ) [ ( 2 ) (r )] 2 , r {1,2,..., z},
where
( 2)
( 2)
(t , r ) = 1 R n
( 2)
(t , r ), t ( , ),
( 2)
(3) ( r ) p b
b =1
(b )
1
, r {1, 2,..., z},
(r ) (r )n
( 3)
( 3)
(t , r ) = 1 R n
( 3)
217
(t , r ), t ( , ),
(36)
B.KwiatuszewskaSarneckaMODELSOFRELIABILITYANDAVAILABILITYIMPROVEMENTOFSERIESANDPARALLELSYSTEMS
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( 3)
(37)
(1)
Fn
(1)
(1)
(t , r ) = 1 R n (t , r ), t ( , ),
(1)
(38)
where
( 2)
( 2)
(t , r ) = 1 R n
(2)
(t , r ), t ( , ),
( 2)
(39)
( 3)
(t , r ) [ ( 3) (r )] 2 , r {1,2,..., z},
Fn
( 3)
(t , r ) = 1 R n
( 3)
(t , r ), t ( , ),
( 3)
In order to determine the value of the coefficient (r ) , r {1, 2,..., z}, by which it is necessary to
reduce (multiply by) the failure rates of departure of the reliability states subsets of basic
components of the non renewal system or renewal with non-ignored time of renovation in order to
receive the system having the mean value of the number of exceeding the critical reliability state
during the time t as the mean value of the number of exceeding the critical reliability state during
the time t of the system with either hot or cold single reserve of basic components we can solve
either the equation
(1) (r ) = (3) (r ) , t 0, r {1,2,..., z},
(40)
or respectively the equation
( 2) (r ) = (3) (r ) , t 0, r {1,2,..., z},
(41)
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and if the system is the system with not ignored time of renovation in order to receive the system
having the same availability as the availability of the system with either hot or cold single reserve
of basic components we can solve either the equation
K (1) (r ) = K (3) (r ) , t 0, r {1, 2,..., z},
(42)
or respectively the equation
K ( 2) (r ) = K (3) (r ) , t 0, r {1,2,..., z}.
(43)
Proposition 5.1
If components of the multi-state non renewal system or renewal system with non ignored time of
renovation at the operational states zb , b = 1,2,..., v, have exponential reliability functions then the
coefficient (r ) , r {1, 2,..., z}, is in the form
- for a homogeneous series system
in the first case by (40) , after considering (34) and (36), we get
2
(r ) =
, r {1,2,..., z},
n
in the second case by (41), after considering (35) and (36), we get
2
(r ) =
, r {1,2,..., z},
n
- for a homogeneous parallel system
in the first case by (40) , after considering (36) and (38), we get
(r ) =
C + log n
, r {1, 2,..., z},
C + log 2 n
in the second case by (41), after considering (37) and (38), we get
(r ) =
C + log n
, r {1, 2,..., z},
C + log ( b ) ( r )b n( b ) ( r ) n
exp[(b) (r )bn(b) (r )]
= n , r {1,2,..., z}.
where C 0.5772 is Eulers constant and
(b) (r )bn(b) (r )
6
CONCLUSION
In the paper the multi-state approach to the improvement of systems reliability, and
availability for series and parallel systems has been presented. Constructed in this paper the final
integrated, general analytical models of complex systems reliability and availability improvement
related to their operation processes are very important for the further optimization of system
operation costs.
6
PREFERENCES
- Barlow, R. E. & Proschan, F. (1975). Statistical Theory of Reliability and Life Testing.
Probability Models. Holt Rinehart and Winston, Inc., New York.
- Gniedenko, B. W. (1943). Sur la distribution limite du terme maximum dune serie
aleatoire. Ann. of Math. 44, 432453.
- Koowrocki, K. (2004). Reliability of Large Systems. Elsevier, Amsterdam - Boston Heidelberg - London - New York - Oxford - Paris - San Diego - San Francisco - Singapore
- Sydney - Tokyo.
- Koowrocki K. & Kwiatuszewska-Sarnecka B. (2008). Safety and Reliability Optimization
of Complex Industrial Systems and Processes. WP5 - Task 5.1. Models of safety, reliability
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