Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
India
ATTRACTIVE
JUNE 02, 2015
UPDATE
BSE-30: 27,849
Weak earnings; impairment ratios rise marginally. The quarter was even more
disappointing than the 3% yoy decline in earnings suggests. Earnings declined largely
on the back of weak NII growth (10% yoy) and high provisions (38% yoy). Impairment
ratios increased by 40 bps qoq to 10.9% with fresh impairments at 6.8% of loans.
NBFCs delivered a mixed performance with improved collections for most auto finance/
multi product NBFCs and sharp deterioration for others. We remain most positive on
housing finance (HDFC, LICHF and Dewan) and would like to play the CV recovery
through Cholamandalam and other multi product NBFCs.
Earnings slips into negative zone; NII growth tracking weak loan growth
After a few quarters of positive growth in earnings, 4QFY15 was a disappointment with a
decline of 3% yoy (ex-SBI at -9% yoy). Revenues grew 14% yoy with NII growth at 10% yoy
and non-interest income growth at 24% yoy. NII growth for private banks was stronger at 18%
yoy and weaker for public banks at 5% yoy, reflecting the weak trends on loan growth. We are
yet to see any slowdown in provisions for bad loans which grew 36% yoy with slippages mainly
from restructured loans. Among public banks, SBI declared strong results while Axis, HDFC
Bank and Yes Bank did likewise among private banks.
Loan growth still weak as recovery is still elusive; revenue growth sees support from treasury
Loan growth (under coverage) slowed to 11% yoy (Exhibit 24), the slowest in recent years as
demand for corporate loans slowed sharply and alternate channels opened up meaningfully.
Divergence further expanded between public (8% yoy) and private banks (18% yoy) primarily
due to the nature of the loan portfolio and private banks looking to rebuild growth in the
corporate segment. We see loan growth, and consequently revenue growth, as a key challenge
that is likely to continue in FY2016-17 as there is a lack of evidence of corporate demand (~45%
of loans) at this stage as bank pipelines show negligible sanctions. Revenue growth and
earnings growth should sustain/improve as the treasury book shows positive contribution.
QUICK NUMBERS
Earnings declined
3% yoy; NII grew
10% yoy
Gross NPLs at 3.9%
and restructured
loans at 5% for
banks under
coverage
Loan growth at 11%
yoy; public banks at
8% yoy
Nischint Chawathe
nischint.chawathe@kotak.com
Mumbai: +91-22-4336-0887
Abhijeet Sakhare
abhijeet.sakhare@kotak.com
Mumbai: +91-22-4336-0889
India
Banks/Financial Institutions
NII
Non interest income
Total income
Provisions
Loan loss provisions
PAT
PAT (ex-SBI)
3QFY15
477
207
684
148
142
144
115
4QFY15
493
267
760
215
190
151
114
QoQ (%)
3.3
29.3
11.1
44.5
33.3
5.0
(0.9)
YoY (%)
9.7
24.2
14.4
38.2
36.4
(2.5)
(8.7)
Exhibit 2: PAT growth was negative in last quarter for the sector
Growth in PAT, March fiscal year-ends, 4QFY11-4QFY15 (%)
Public
Private
Sector
120
90
60
30
4QFY15
3QFY15
2QFY15
1QFY15
4QFY14
3QFY14
2QFY14
1QFY14
4QFY13
3QFY13
2QFY13
1QFY13
4QFY12
3QFY12
2QFY12
1QFY12
4QFY11
(30)
Public
Private
Sector
Public
40
32
160
24
120
16
80
40
4QFY15
3QFY15
2QFY15
1QFY15
4QFY14
3QFY14
2QFY14
1QFY14
4QFY13
3QFY13
2QFY13
1QFY13
4QFY12
3QFY12
2QFY12
1QFY12
4QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
Private
200
Banks/Financial Institutions
India
5.6
5.8
5.9
5.8
6.2
2.1
2.0
2.0
2.1
1.7
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.1
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.8
2.0
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.8
1.8
4.8
2.4
2.7
4QFY15
5.5
3QFY15
5.7
2QFY15
5.3
5.5
1QFY15
7.2
3QFY14
3.6
2QFY14
9.6
Restructured loans
1QFY14
4.5
4QFY14
Gross NPL
Restructured loans
12.0
4QFY13
Gross NPL
3.8
4.3
4.4
4.4
4.1
4.2
4.4
4.7
4.7
0.9
-
4QFY15
3QFY15
2QFY15
1QFY15
4QFY14
3QFY14
2QFY14
1QFY14
4QFY13
India
Banks/Financial Institutions
121
125
82
60
196
604
102
131
141
92
66
208
607
115
155
167
106
77
222
620
126
163
222
130
77
257
567
130
3.1
3.3
2.7
4.3
5.5
4.9
4.3
3.3
3.5
2.9
4.7
5.7
4.9
4.7
3.9
4.1
3.4
5.4
6.0
4.9
5.1
3.7
5.4
3.9
5.2
6.6
4.3
5.0
60
80
62
42
105
319
58
67
91
72
45
116
330
64
83
101
76
51
138
345
71
81
135
87
48
154
276
69
1.6
2.1
2.0
3.1
3.0
2.7
2.5
1.7
2.3
2.3
3.3
3.3
2.7
2.7
2.1
2.5
2.4
3.7
3.8
2.8
3.0
1.9
3.4
2.7
3.3
4.1
2.1
2.7
3
1
10
5
27
3
2
10
5
28
4
2
11
7
27
3
2
11
7
28
1.9
1.8
2.2
1.3
5.8
2.0
1.9
2.1
1.4
6.0
2.1
1.9
2.2
1.9
5.8
1.9
1.8
2.0
1.9
6.0
2
1
3
2
14
2
1
3
2
12
2
1
3
3
14
2
1
4
3
12
1.3
1.0
0.7
0.5
3.2
1.3
1.1
0.7
0.6
2.8
1.3
1.0
0.7
0.7
3.2
1.3
1.0
0.7
0.8
2.8
35
34
110
7
2
1,523
3.6
1,290
233
36
34
117
7
2
1,602
5.2
1,359
243
39
35
132
7
3
1,737
8.4
1,472
265
41
34
152
6
3
1,833
5.5
1,546
287
1.3
1.1
3.2
1.1
0.3
3.6
1.3
1.0
3.2
1.1
0.4
3.7
1.3
1.0
3.5
1.1
0.4
3.9
1.3
0.9
3.9
0.8
0.4
3.9
0.4
0.2
1.6
0.3
0.1
2.0
4.7
2.1
13
9
63
2
1
960
0.2
850
110
0.4
0.3
1.3
0.3
0.1
2.2
4.7
2.0
13
9
48
2
1
959
10.3
864
95
0.4
0.3
1.1
0.3
0.1
2.0
4.4
2.0
12
9
39
2
1
869
7.9
786
84
0.4
0.3
1.0
0.3
0.1
1.9
4.2
2.0
11
10
34
2
0
805
6.2
726
80
2.4
0.7
2.5
0.7
2.7
0.7
2.6
0.8
Bank of Baroda
4QFY14
1.3
3QFY15
3.1
4QFY15
1.3
4QFY15
3.8
Bank of India
3.8
4.0
3.0
3.3
6.4
2.5
1.7
1.4
0.7
2.7
Canara Bank
2.8
3.4
4.1
2.9
3.4
1.9
1.8
1.2
1.4
4.2
3.4
4.1
2.8
3.8
2.1
2.9
2.5
2.0
6.0
4.7
5.1
3.4
4.4
5.7
7.8
3.7
1.7
3.7
2.7
8.3
2.6
3.3
2.5
2.3
1.5
2.6
1.2
1.1
1.3
3.7
Union Bank
2.0
2.1
3.2
2.8
2.4
2.4
0.8
1.2
2.0
3.6
Axis Bank
0.5
1.1
1.5
1.1
0.9
1.9
0.8
0.9
0.2
2.2
ICICI Bank
1.5
1.4
1.8
2.4
3.4
2.5
1.6
0.9
1.9
1.3
Total
2.6
2.9
2.8
2.9
3.0
2.4
1.4
1.4
1.6
3.8
2.6
2.7
2.9
3.2
3.7
2.4
1.5
1.6
1.8
3.8
Banks/Financial Institutions
India
Bank of Baroda
Bank of India
Canara Bank
Oriental Bank of Commerce
Punjab National Bank
State Bank of India
Union Bank
Axis Bank
ICICI Bank
Total
4QFY14
4,866
5,480
4,030
3,652
8,740
56,980
2,220
140
7,190
93,299
3QFY15
3,280
640
200
397
10,820
50,960
2,180
1,940
2,360
72,777
Write-offs (% of advances)
4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.6
0.9
0.2
0.1
(0.2)
0.5
1.1
1.4
0.0
(0.5)
1.0
1.3
0.2
0.1
1.0
1.0
0.9
1.2
1.2
1.4
1.9
2.2
1.6
1.7
1.5
0.4
0.5
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.0
0.4
1.0
0.3
0.3
0.8
0.5
0.6
0.3
0.6
1.0
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.8
4QFY15
3,689
(2,330)
(4,010)
3,703
13,540
48,740
2,450
2,140
5,950
73,872
Exhibit 10: Strong recovery in 4QFY15, particularly for SBI and PNB
Recoveries and upgradation of loans, March fiscal year-ends, 4QFY14-4QFY15
Recovery and upgradation (Rs mn)
Bank of Baroda
Bank of India
12,155
22,911
12,214
7,254
12,874
1.2
1.3
2.4
1.2
0.7
1.3
Canara Bank
22,357
12,057
11,193
8,627
7,396
1.5
3.0
1.6
1.4
1.1
0.9
1.1
1QFY15
13,125
2QFY15
5,137
Recovery/upgradation (% of advances)
4QFY14
8,572
3QFY15
3,186
4QFY15
1,816
3QFY14
0.4
4QFY14
0.9
1QFY15
1.4
2QFY15
0.5
3QFY15
0.3
4QFY15
0.2
4,063
6,291
2,397
2,773
3,929
1.1
1.2
1.8
0.7
0.8
12,948
14,862
17,350
26,515
25,866
1.0
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.9
2.7
84,430
45,411
26,349
6,679
51,611
1.0
2.8
1.5
0.9
0.2
1.6
Union Bank
1,905
3,179
5,582
3,856
8,672
0.5
0.3
0.5
0.9
0.6
1.3
Axis Bank
1,488
971
1,642
2,255
1,874
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
ICICI Bank
4,160
3,560
4,400
5,070
6,540
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.7
Total
152,077
122,368
86,263
66,216
120,579
0.9
1.7
1.4
1.0
0.7
1.2
Ex SBI
67,647
76,957
59,914
59,537
68,967
0.8
1.2
1.3
1.0
1.0
1.1
Exhibit 11: Nearly 30% of textiles and 25% of iron and steel exposure have been restructured or have slipped into NPLs
NPL and restructured loans in textiles and iron and steel across select banks, March fiscal year-end, 4QFY15 (%)
Textiles
Total
exposure
IOB
OBC (A)
PNB
SBI
(% of loan
book)
4.1
4.8
3.1
3.2
Restructutred loans
(% of total
expoure)
10.1
11.6
12.1
15.7
(% of
restructured
loans)
3.7
4.1
3.7
24.3
Total
exposure
NPLs
(% of total
expoure)
14.6
13.3
8.6
8.4
(% of
NPLs)
7.1
12.2
3.9
6.3
(% of loan
book)
6.3
6.5
6.2
6.0
Restructutred loans
(% of total
expoure)
28.7
21.3
23.6
18.4
(% of
restructured
loans)
16.2
10.3
14.6
53.9
NPLs
(% of total
expoure) (% of NPLs)
12.3
9.3
11.3
14.2
10.1
9.3
7.3
10.4
Notes:
(a) Restructured loans amount assumed to be same as 3QFY15.
India
Banks/Financial Institutions
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
0.6
1.5
1.0
2.1
2.4
1.9
1.2
0.8
1.0
1.5
1.7
1.4
1.3
0.7
0.6
0.9
1.1
1.3
2.0
1.3
1.1
1.2
1.5
1.4
1.6
2.1
1.5
1.3
1.4
2.3
1.2
1.8
3.8
1.9
1.2
0.6
0.5
0.3
0.1
0.3
1.1
0.6
0.4
1.5
1.8
1.2
0.4
0.5
0.8
3.1
0.6
0.4
0.5
1.7
1.8
0.7
0.5
0.3
1.8
3.1
0.7
0.4
0.8
0.3
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.8
0.5
0.6
1.1
0.6
0.8
0.3
0.4
0.6
0.6
1.0
0.3
0.7
0.5
0.6
1.3
0.6
0.5
Ex write-off
1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15
4QFY15
4QFY14
Inc write-off
1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15
4QFY15
49.2
37.5
21.2
30.5
47.5
49.5
44.2
50.2
35.8
24.6
29.3
46.6
47.2
43.7
48.7
35.6
21.8
32.0
44.0
45.7
43.7
46.3
39.7
28.5
33.8
37.9
44.4
43.5
50.4
39.1
33.0
37.2
40.1
51.4
46.9
65.5
58.7
60.1
60.2
59.1
62.9
59.9
66.7
58.1
60.1
59.1
60.0
62.7
58.9
65.4
56.3
58.7
59.0
59.1
63.2
58.0
62.4
56.6
59.4
57.4
57.3
63.6
57.3
65.0
52.4
57.3
60.6
58.2
69.1
59.2
32.7
46.5
70.4
49.9
87.0
33.7
46.1
70.1
59.5
48.7
35.3
44.1
69.1
56.8
49.3
38.9
46.9
68.8
62.3
46.3
30.7
43.2
64.7
58.5
55.3
62.0
80.5
84.1
75.0
90.3
61.1
79.1
84.9
75.0
55.1
62.0
76.8
85.1
75.0
54.9
62.0
77.1
85.0
75.1
51.0
58.0
74.7
83.9
75.2
59.0
67.4
72.6
68.8
85.1
70.4
67.8
70.0
68.4
78.4
70.1
67.3
72.7
65.8
75.8
70.2
67.9
73.9
63.5
76.8
70.0
68.0
73.9
58.5
72.0
62.6
Banks/Financial Institutions
India
Private
PSU
2.0
1.6
1.2
0.8
0.4
2017E
2016E
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
0.0
Notes:
(a) City Union Bank, DCB, ING Vysya and Karur Vysya Bank not included from banks under coverage.
Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates
Restructured loans shows an increase of 30 bps qoq; net NPL and restructured loans
increase 20 bps at ~7% of loans
Overall restructured loans increased by 30 bps qoq 5% of loans. Public banks reported an
increase of 40 bps qoq to 6.2% of loans while the share of restructured loans for private
banks increased by 10 bps to 2.1% of loans.
The increase on a sequential basis was broadly on expected lines. Loans restructured in the
SEB segment came off to 46% from 50% in the past few quarters. There would be no
further fresh disbursements from FY2016 to the SEB as a part of the financial restructuring
package.
Overall stress (net NPL and restructured loans) stands at 2.9% of loans (10 bps qoq) for
private banks and 8.8% of loans (20 bps increase qoq) for public banks. There are some
early signs that the pipeline for fresh restructuring is gradually easing across all banks.
However, it would be incorrect to extrapolate considering that incremental cases for
restructuring would be of a very large ticket size.
The transitional costs of the provisioning requirements on new restructured guidelines
continued to bite earnings as they would have to have make ~5% on the incremental loans
restructured and move the outstanding stock of restructured to 5% by FY2015. We do note
that there are high slippages into NPL from the restructured loan portfolio as the
restructuring package implemented in these corporate portfolios has not been successful.
India
Banks/Financial Institutions
Exhibit 15: Restructured loans and net NPLs to total loans are at about 9% for public banks, 3% for private banks
Restructured loans and net NPLs, March fiscal year-ends, 4QFY14-4QFY15 (%)
Restructured loans (%)
4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15
Public banks
BoB
BoI
Canara
O BC
PNB
SBI
Union
O ld private banks
City Union
DCB
Federal
Karur Vysya
J&K
Private
Axis
HDFC Bank
ICICI
IndusInd
Yes
Total
Public banks
Private banks
5.2
5.5
7.7
9.8
10.2
3.6
5.3
6.0
5.5
7.9
11.6
9.8
3.5
5.0
5.8
5.5
7.9
11.3
10.2
3.6
6.6
5.9
4.9
8.1
12.7
9.5
3.8
5.0
6.1
4.9
8.6
13.6
10.1
4.3
5.2
1.5
2.0
2.0
2.8
2.9
2.6
2.3
1.6
2.1
2.0
3.1
3.0
2.7
2.5
1.7
2.3
2.3
3.3
3.3
2.7
2.7
2.1
2.5
2.4
3.7
3.8
2.8
3.0
1.9
3.4
2.7
3.3
4.1
2.1
2.7
6.7
7.5
9.7
12.6
13.0
6.1
7.6
7.6
7.6
10.0
14.7
12.8
6.2
7.5
7.6
7.8
10.2
14.5
13.4
6.4
9.3
8.0
7.4
10.6
16.3
13.3
6.6
7.9
7.9
8.3
11.2
16.9
14.1
6.4
5.2
1.7
1.0
5.3
4.1
3.4
1.6
0.9
5.5
4.3
3.0
1.5
1.0
5.0
4.5
2.8
1.5
1.2
5.1
4.7
4.1
1.4
0.5
5.6
5.4
5.5
1.2
0.9
0.7
0.4
0.2
1.3
1.0
0.7
0.5
2.2
1.3
1.1
0.7
0.6
2.5
1.3
1.0
0.7
0.7
3.2
1.3
1.0
0.7
0.8
2.8
2.9
2.0
6.1
4.5
3.6
2.9
1.9
6.2
4.8
5.2
2.8
2.1
5.7
5.1
5.3
2.8
2.2
5.7
5.4
7.3
2.7
1.5
6.3
6.2
8.3
2.4
0.2
3.1
0.3
0.2
4.7
5.6
2.0
2.5
0.2
3.2
0.4
0.2
4.7
5.8
2.1
2.5
0.1
3.0
0.5
0.2
4.8
5.9
2.0
2.4
0.1
3.2
0.6
0.3
4.7
5.8
2.0
2.7
0.1
2.8
0.5
0.5
5.0
6.2
2.1
0.4
0.3
1.0
0.3
0.1
1.8
2.3
0.5
0.4
0.3
1.0
0.3
0.1
1.9
2.4
0.7
0.4
0.3
1.1
0.3
0.1
2.0
2.6
0.7
0.4
0.3
1.3
0.3
0.1
2.2
2.8
0.8
0.4
0.2
1.6
0.3
0.1
2.1
2.6
0.8
2.8
0.5
4.1
0.7
0.2
6.5
7.9
2.6
2.9
0.5
4.2
0.7
0.3
6.7
8.2
2.7
2.9
0.4
4.1
0.9
0.3
6.9
8.5
2.7
2.8
0.4
4.5
0.9
0.4
6.9
8.6
2.8
3.2
0.3
4.5
0.8
0.6
7.1
8.8
2.9
Exhibit 16: Proportion of SEB restructured loans declined to 47% from 50% earlier led by implementation of FRP packages for SEBs
March fiscal year-end, 4QFY15 (%)
Power
Total loans
Andhra Bank
Allahabad Bank
BOB (B)
BOI
Central Bank (B)
Corporation Bank
Dena Bank
IDBI Bank
Indian Bank (B)
IOB (A)
OBC
PNB
SBI (B)
Vijaya Bank
Syndicate bank
Total
(Rs bn)
1,296
1,531
4,281
4,020
1,950
1,451
806
2,084
1,288
1,790
1,480
3,805
13,354
877
2,058
48,000
Infra exposure
(Rs bn)
199
248
357
490
410
238
153
572
230
280
335
637
1,773
234
255
7,442
(% of
loans)
15.4
16.2
8.3
12.2
21.0
16.4
19.0
27.5
17.8
15.7
22.6
16.7
13.3
26.7
12.4
15.5
SEB
(% of
loans)
3.6
3.4
1.5
3.7
9.4
2.7
9.0
3.3
5.4
4.7
2.8
0.8
8.4
5.6
3.4
Total
(% of
loans)
11.1
10.9
6.1
5.0
16.7
7.3
12.2
8.0
7.7
11.1
13.6
10.1
5.3
7.1
5.2
8.0
SEB
(% of
loans)
2.9
2.1
0.7
1.0
7.4
1.6
4.6
3.1
1.1
3.7
1.5
0.3
2.8
2.1
1.5
Aviation
(% of
loans)
0.4
0.2
0.3
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.4
0.8
0.4
0.1
0.4
0.3
Others
(% of
loans)
7.7
8.6
5.0
3.5
8.7
5.1
7.4
7.8
4.1
9.6
9.1
8.1
4.9
4.2
2.8
6.2
SEB
restructuring
(% of SEB
loans)
82.2
61.0
46.1
25.7
78.5
60.5
51.6
91.1
20.5
78.8
54.8
35.5
33.6
36.9
46.1
Notes:
(A) Exposure to power extrapolated proportionate to increase in infrastructure book
(B) Assumed infrastructure exposures and SEB restructured loans same as previous quarter
(C) We have assumed exposure to be equal to last quarter where data is not available
Banks/Financial Institutions
India
India
Banks/Financial Institutions
Bajaj Finance
Cholamandalam
DHFL
HDFC
IDFC
LIC Housing Finance
Mahindra Finance
Magma Finance
Muthoot Finance
Pow er Finance Corporation
Rural Electrification Corporation
Shriram City Union Finance
Shriram Transport Finance
SKS Microfinance
4QFY14
37
22
16
5
17
23
10
(16)
18
17
(7)
7
41
1QFY15
40
18
24
15
(8)
17
17
12
(17)
17
17
(2)
4
39
2QFY15
41
17
28
15
(4)
17
13
13
(11)
16
17
3
3
50
3QFY15
37
12
28
14
(3)
18
10
13
(2)
16
19
8
7
35
4QFY15
35
9
27
16
(10)
19
11
9
7
15
21
14
11
47
Comments
Loan grow th remains high
Retains cautious stance
Loan grow th continues
Improving trend in retail busienss
Loan book dow n sharply
Disbursements remain high
Loan grow th w eak
Slow ing dow n
Loan book up 6% qoq
Business gradually slow ing dow n
Remains stable
Grow th improves on low base
Strong yoy grow th in disbursements
Strong grow th in ticket size
Cholamandalam
DHFL
HDFC
33
-
29
(3)
(7)
(5)
11
11
10
64
20
(3)
31
22
10
18
22
17
(3)
23
24
30
17
19
13
L&T Finance
25
LICHF -retail
18
13
(0)
15
23
Mahindra Finance
(2)
27
32
(11)
(13)
(2)
(8)
(18)
(13)
28
33
14
(12)
Shriram City
NA
(21)
(27)
(4)
18
17
Shriram Transport
55
48
18
(8)
(10)
(6)
13
39
31
Magma Fincorp
10
Banks/Financial Institutions
India
Magma F incorp
Muthoot F inance
Pow er F inance Corporation
Rural Electrification Corporation
Shriram Transport F inance
Shriam City Union F inance
SKS Microfinance
5.5
10.4
4.9
5.0
6.9
13.3
9.5
5.2
10.0
4.8
5.0
7.2
13.5
11.2
5.3
10.0
5.1
5.2
7.3
13.3
13.6
4QFY15
8.8
7.2
2.7
4.1
3.4
2.5
10.7
5.9
9.5
5.0
5.2
7.5
14.3
10.9
5.9
9.7
4.8
5.1
7.5
13.7
9.9
Comments
Seasonal w eakness in NIM
Change in classification on EIS
Stable qoq
Strong seasonal trends
Low er debt market gains
Seasonal trends at w ork
Seaonally strong NIM
Low er share of loan securitization and
higher share of high-y ield loans
NIM up marginlly qoq
NIM remains high
NIM remains high
Stable qoq
Higher share of gold loans
Cash distorted calculated ratio
4QFY14
9
7
36
13
31
39
1QFY15
9
6
33
11
26
21
2QFY15
9
5
32
8
21
5
3QFY15
9
5
30
6
14
14
4QFY15
10
5
32
6
17
30
4QFY13
1.0
1.1
0.7
0.7
0.2
0.6
2.03
2.5
1.5
3.0
2.0
0.7
0.4
3.2
2.2
0.5
1QFY14
1.1
1.1
0.8
0.8
0.4
0.8
2.54
3.4
1.5
4.2
2.1
0.7
0.4
3.1
2.3
0.3
2QFY14
1.1
1.4
0.8
0.8
0.3
0.7
2.89
3.4
2.4
1.3
4.1
1.9
0.7
0.4
3.3
2.5
0.2
3QFY14
1.2
1.7
0.9
0.8
0.6
0.8
2.93
3.5
2.4
1.6
4.8
1.6
0.7
0.3
3.6
2.5
0.1
4QFY14
1.2
1.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.7
3.18
3.4
3.1
2.2
4.4
1.9
0.7
0.3
3.9
2.7
0.1
1QFY15
1.1
2.4
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.8
3.57
3.8
3.5
2.9
6.2
1.9
1.0
0.9
3.7
2.9
0.2
2QFY15
1.4
2.6
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.6
2.96
3.5
2.5
3.6
6.3
2.1
1.0
0.8
3.7
2.9
0.1
3QFY15
1.5
2.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
3.01
3.9
2.3
3.6
7.1
1.9
1.0
0.8
3.6
3.0
0.1
4QFY15
1.5
3.1
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.5
2.25
3.0
1.8
4.1
5.9
2.2
1.1
0.7
3.8
3.1
0.1
11
India
Banks/Financial Institutions
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
12
101
113
7
12
115
127
7
12
133
144
8
12
116
128
7
20
127
147
8
20
156
176
9
20
175
195
10
24
205
229
11
5
337
342
26
5
337
342
25
5
337
342
24
5
337
342
23
13
337
350
23
13
30
43
3
13
95
108
6
13
164
178
10
Notes:
PFC
(a) If the commission date of a private sector project project is postponed by a single day,the loan is classified as 'rescheduled'.
(b) ) If the loan repayment scheudule is revised due to change in cash flow forecasts, the loan is classified as 'restructured'.
REC
(a) 1Q FY14-1Q FY15: If the commission date of a private/ public sector project is postponed or loan repayment schedule is revised by a
single day, the project is classified as 'rescheduled'.
(b) 2Q FY15-4Q FY15: If the commission date of a private/ public sector project is postponed by over two years or loan repayment
schedule is revised, the loans is classified as 'restructured'.
Bajaj Finance
Cholamandalam
DHFL
HDFC
IDFC
LICHF
Mahindra Finance
Magma Finance
Muthoot Finance
PFC
REC
Shriram Transport
Shriram City Union Finance
SKS Microfinance
1
8
886
4
10
255
10
9
90
16
5
71
Bajaj Finance
Cholamandalam
DHFL
HDFC
IDFC
LICHF
Mahindra Finance
Magma Finance
Muthoot Finance
PFC
REC
Shriram Transport
Shriram City Union Finance
SKS Microfinance
PAT (%)
4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15
11
20
18
33
6
2
6
21
7
22
18
17
11
21
14
18
(47)
(14)
(14)
(16)
17
14
21
16
(7)
(19)
(6)
(17)
1
1
31
25
(20)
(7)
(20)
(20)
9
21
11
1
24
11
35
12
(17)
(10)
(8)
4
17
9
9
10
803
886
255
90
4QFY15
27
49
13
15
49
10
7
18
(8)
11
(8)
7
1
49
12
Banks/Financial Institutions
India
Dewan Housing Finances (Dewan) comparable PAT was up 20% yoy on the back of 27%
yoy loan growth to Rs568 bn. Calculated NIM were stable yoy at 2.7% as the company
has likely fully passed on the benefit of lower borrowings cost to its borrowers.
HDFC reported PAT (before DTL) was up 15% yoy. Overall loan book (including
outstanding loans sold to banks) was up 16% yoy to Rs2.53 tn. Individual loan book was
up 18% yoy. Non-individual loan book was up 13% yoy, higher than 8-11% yoy over the
past seven quarters. Calculated NIM (4.1%) was down 20 bps yoy but up 50 bps qoq due
to liability-side benefits.
LICHF reported 17% yoy growth in comparable earnings and 22% growth in NII on the
back of stable (19%) loan growth and marginal yoy NIM expansion.
L&T Finance (the retail and mid-market business of L&T Finance Holdings) 14% PBT
growth yoy. The sharp (45%) decline in CV/CE loans and weak business loans has offset
high growth in tractor and microfinance (leading to flat loan book) but such a strategy
boosted asset yields (up 40 bps yoy). The company made extra provisions (which
accounted for about half the provisions during the quarter) to prepare for 150 days past
due (dpd) NPL recognition from FY2017. The company will follow 150 dpd guidelines
from 1QFY15.
L&T Infra Finance reported strong loan growth of 27% yoy (from renewable projects,
roads and operating assets). Incremental trends are little weaker as seen from
disbursements (+2% yoy and -36% qoq). NIM was flat but high provisions (statutory and
extra provisions) affected earnings.
Sharp rise in impaired loans for PFC (and REC) were the key highlight of 4Q results. PFCs
impaired loans increased sharply led by large (17% qoq) rise in rescheduled loans. RECs
restructured loans were up 72% qoq; the restructured loan book in the public sector
increased by 23% yoy to Rs117 bn and the company restructured loans of about Rs47 bn
(NIL earlier) in the private sector.
Magma Fincorp (Magma) reported PBT growth of 36% largely supported by (1) lower
provisions due to relaxation of the NPL norms and (2) 19% yoy growth in NII (supported
by 11% loan growth and NIM expansion). Cost-to-income ratio increased to 61% in
4QFY15 from 56% in 3QFY15. The tax rate was higher at 23% from 17% in 3QFY15
and 10% in 4QFY14 due to the lower share of loan securitization, which in turn boosted
NIM to some extent.
Mahindra Finances (MMFS) PAT was up 7% yoy but 13% ahead of estimates. Strong
NPL recoveries in March led to 17% qoq decline in gross NPLs, thus reducing provisioning
expenses (down 45% qoq) and boosting NIM (write-back of interest reversals boosted
asset yields by 35 bps qoq). MMFSs strong recovery efforts and reversion of high
delinquencies in 3QFY15 is likely to have driven strong collections performance, in our
view.
Muthoot Finances (Muthoot) PAT was down 9% yoy but up 7% qoq. Loan growth
picked up sharply (up 6% qoq to Rs234 bn). NIM expanded as well (20 bps qoq). The
company continued its focus on reducing its operating expenses opex ratio was lower
at 5.1% of loans from 5.4% qoq.
Shriram City Union Finance (SCUF) reported 5% growth in PBT. NII, up 14% yoy, was
supported by similar (14%) loan growth even as NIM (13.7%) was stable yoy. Cost-toincome ratio was up 400 bps yoy and 230 bps above estimates to 41% due to increase in
number of employees on roll.
13
India
Banks/Financial Institutions
SKS Microfinances business momentum picked up sharply in 4QFY15 with 31% qoq
loan growth due to the average size/loan increase of 25% qoq. Long-term loans (loan
with tenure of 104 weeks for borrowers, who have completed at least two loan cycles)
contributed 31% of the qoq loan growth. Greater liquidity on balance sheet, higher loan
sell-down (which calls for higher cash collateral) pulled down calculated NIM (9.9% as
compared to 10.9% in 3QFY15) Consequently, PAT was lower qoq at Rs405 mn (Rs412
in 3QFY15).
Shriram Transport Finance reported subdued earnings due to high (32%) rise in credit
cost. NII was up 19% yoy on the back of 11% loan growth (up 7% in 3QFY15) and yoy
NIM expansion. Large losses in the subsidiary company due to a sharp rise in NPLs (15%
from 3% qoq) was the key reason for disappointment.
2013
2014
2015
30
25
20
15
10
Mar
Feb
Jan
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
14
Banks/Financial Institutions
India
Exhibit 24: Loan growth for banks under coverage was at 11% yoy
Yoy growth in loans, March fiscal year-ends, 4QFY13-4QFY15 (%)
4QFY13
Public banks
Bank of Baroda
Bank of India
Canara Bank
O riental Bank of Commerce
Punjab National Bank
State Bank of India
Union Bank
O ld private banks
CUBK
DCB
Federal Bank
KVB
J&K Bank
New private banks
Axis Bank
HDFC Bank
ICICI Bank
Yes Bank
IndusInd Bank
Public sector
Private sector
Total
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
14.2
16.5
4.2
16.3
5.1
20.5
17.1
12.4
17.1
10.8
12.4
3.6
15.7
16.5
16.3
29.4
30.3
9.2
6.5
19.1
25.5
17.7
27.2
31.8
8.4
9.7
17.4
19.9
21.0
28.4
24.3
8.1
13.1
15.7
10.6
18.8
23.3
21.2
8.1
13.9
13.0
18.1
13.5
18.5
10.6
8.1
13.8
9.6
10.3
11.7
15.1
8.5
5.5
11.1
7.4
8.9
7.8
9.4
9.6
5.2
9.0
7.5
12.1
25.6
24.6
16.8
22.7
18.5
20.5
18.8
8.5
25.8
21.1
16.8
17.8
16.3
24.3
35.3
9.0
23.4
5.4
21.2
21.5
6.4
23.6
(1.5)
15.2
18.3
5.0
28.1
9.1
11.9
10.3
7.7
31.7
14.8
11.3
(3.9)
7.2
28.9
15.3
8.0
2.4
11.5
28.6
18.1
5.5
(3.9)
16.0
22.7
14.4
23.7
26.4
15.0
18.5
15.9
15.8
21.2
12.3
24.3
27.3
13.3
17.2
14.3
16.9
16.0
15.5
13.6
24.2
19.3
17.3
18.8
17.8
22.9
16.0
14.7
23.7
18.7
18.3
18.6
16.8
26.4
16.7
18.4
24.3
17.5
18.7
17.8
16.3
20.7
15.2
23.2
23.7
16.0
17.0
16.3
20.3
21.8
13.8
30.0
22.4
11.7
17.5
13.3
23.2
17.0
12.8
32.4
21.7
9.5
16.9
11.5
22.2
20.6
14.4
35.8
24.8
8.4
18.4
11.1
15
India
Banks/Financial Institutions
Growth yoy
Incremental contribution
2012
12.7
33.1
12.7
11.6
5.5
6.1
6.2
5.4
2013
12.1
31.6
12.1
11.5
5.8
5.7
5.5
5.6
2014
12.0
33.7
12.0
13.5
6.9
6.6
5.5
6.9
2015
12.7
33.5
12.7
13.3
6.3
7.0
5.4
6.7
2012
13.3
12.1
13.3
12.3
12.2
12.5
10.7
18.1
2013 2014
7.7 13.5
8.2 22.0
7.7 13.5
12.5
33.6
20.0 35.5
5.8
31.6
0.3 13.5
17.1
41.3
20122015
CAGR
12.0
12.4
12.0
17.3
17.4
17.2
6.7
20.2
Industry
Mining & Q uarrying
Food processing
Textiles
Rubber, Plastic & their Products
Glass & Glassware
Cement
Basic metals
Construction
Infrastructure
Power
Telecom
Roads
O ther Infrastructure
45.2
0.8
2.2
3.7
0.7
0.1
0.9
6.1
1.1
14.7
7.7
2.2
2.6
2.2
45.8
0.7
2.4
3.8
0.6
0.2
0.9
6.5
1.1
15.0
8.5
1.8
2.7
1.9
45.3
0.6
2.7
3.7
0.7
0.2
1.0
6.5
1.1
15.1
8.8
1.6
2.8
1.9
44.1
0.6
2.9
3.4
0.6
0.1
0.9
6.4
1.2
15.3
9.2
1.5
2.8
1.8
20.3
27.6
22.1
9.4
15.7
14.8
24.9
22.4
11.9
20.5
23.9
0.5
22.1
32.2
14.9
6.6
24.5
14.9
4.1
18.5
24.0
19.7
7.3
15.7
25.5
(6.8)
18.2
0.5
13.1
2.0
26.1
11.1
18.0
17.0
18.0
15.2
17.7
15.1
17.4
3.0
19.9
9.3
11.2
3.0
22.4
8.4
8.3
12.0
14.9
13.8
14.8
13.6
19.0
(0.6)
14.8
4.1
53.7
1.2
2.8
2.2
0.7
0.1
1.2
7.9
0.8
17.6
10.5
0.1
3.3
3.8
50.6
0.4
4.0
4.2
0.2
0.2
1.6
9.0
0.6
17.3
14.8
(1.1)
3.5
0.1
42.0
0.1
4.4
2.9
0.8
0.2
1.2
6.9
1.3
15.8
10.4
0.4
3.7
1.3
41.5
0.2
4.5
2.5
0.5
0.1
1.1
7.1
1.4
16.8
13.0
(0.1)
3.3
0.7
Services
Transport
Professional Services
Trade
Real Estate
NBFCs
23.7
1.8
1.1
5.2
2.6
5.3
23.7
1.6
1.2
5.7
2.6
5.3
24.0
1.6
1.3
5.8
2.8
5.3
23.4
1.5
1.2
6.0
2.8
5.2
14.4
9.1
5.0
21.1
15.6
23.9
13.1
4.2
18.8
22.4
11.9
14.1
16.1
12.4
25.3
17.0
22.4
13.2
11.5
4.9
16.3
17.1
14.2
11.2
21.0
1.0
0.4
6.4
2.5
7.2
23.3
0.6
1.6
8.8
2.3
5.6
26.6
1.4
2.1
6.7
4.1
4.9
22.5
0.7
1.6
7.8
3.2
4.9
Personal Loans
Housing
Vehicle
O ther Personal Loans
18.4
9.4
2.1
3.7
18.4
9.4
2.3
3.6
18.6
9.7
2.3
3.6
19.8
10.4
2.5
3.9
12.9
12.3
22.2
8.1
13.6
13.2
24.5
11.1
15.5
18.4
17.4
12.6
14.8
16.1
19.0
14.2
14.8
7.3
2.7
2.0
18.8
9.3
3.8
3.1
20.0
12.1
2.8
3.2
23.2
13.0
3.5
4.5
2012
10.5
25.1
10.5
9.0
4.2
4.8
4.2
5.9
2013
7.4
20.5
7.4
11.0
8.3
2.7
0.1
7.0
2014
11.4
48.6
11.4
27.1
14.5
12.6
5.2
16.2
20122015
12.7
34.3
12.7
17.6
8.4
9.2
3.3
9.8
16
Banks/Financial Institutions
India
Exhibit 26: Margins were under pressure for most banks, especially public banks
NIM and yoy growth in NII for banks, March fiscal year-ends, 4QFY14-4QFY15 (%)
NIM (%)
4QFY15
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.7
3.2
3.2
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.3
2.6
3.4
3.1
2.6
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.6
3.2
3.1
2.5
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.7
3.2
3.1
2.5
2.2
2.1
2.3
2.6
2.8
3.2
2.4
11.0
23.1
21.3
7.8
5.9
16.5
3.7
15.2
5.9
22.0
(4.9)
12.1
15.1
10.9
17.5
19.9
8.1
(2.7)
3.4
8.4
6.6
7.5
2.2
6.9
5.4
0.3
9.0
8.0
1.5
(6.6)
(1.9)
(0.8)
(5.3)
14.0
3.4
3.3
3.6
3.6
2.7
4.1
3.3
3.7
3.3
2.7
3.7
3.5
3.7
3.4
2.7
3.9
3.5
3.7
3.2
3.1
3.7
3.4
3.8
3.3
3.2
3.9
6.6
22.7
30.3
12.2
10.7
(0.3)
67.2
10.7
2.5
(2.5)
8.6
28.9
10.5
13.1
(2.7)
6.2
29.7
7.6
28.2
(1.2)
10.8
29.6
(0.3)
14.1
(2.7)
3.9
4.4
3.4
3.8
3.0
3.9
4.4
3.4
3.7
3.0
4.0
4.5
3.4
3.6
3.2
4.0
4.4
3.5
3.7
3.2
3.8
4.4
3.6
3.7
3.2
18.8
15.3
14.5
18.1
12.8
15.5
17.0
17.6
17.8
13.1
20.0
23.1
15.2
19.0
27.4
20.3
23.0
13.1
18.0
36.6
20.0
21.4
16.6
18.4
35.8
Exhibit 27: Deposit growth has been subdued as well in recent quarters
Yoy growth in deposits, March fiscal year-ends, 2012-2015 (%)
2012
2013
2014
2015
25
22
19
16
13
Mar
Feb
Jan
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
10
Source: RBI
17
India
Banks/Financial Institutions
CP rate
CD rate
Net LAF
14.0
MSF
2,200
1,800
12.6
1,400
1,000
11.2
600
200
9.8
(200)
8.4
(600)
(1,000)
(1,400)
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
May-15
Feb-15
Nov-14
Aug-14
May-14
Feb-14
Nov-13
Aug-13
May-13
Feb-13
Nov-12
Aug-12
May-12
7.0
Exhibit 30: Yields for AAA-rated corporate bonds have declined ~12 bps YTD
Yields on 5-year corporate bonds and 10-year G-Secs in India, May 2014- May 2015 (%)
5-Year AAA
10.5
5-Year AA
10-Year G Sec
9.9
9.3
8.7
8.1
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
7.5
18
Banks/Financial Institutions
India
Exhibit 31: Deposit growth declined for most banks, CASA ratios improved
Yoy growth in deposits and CASA ratio, March fiscal year-ends, 4QFY14-4QFY15 (%)
Deposit growth (%)
4QFY14
Public banks
Bank of Baroda
Bank of India
Canara Bank
O riental Bank of Commerce
Punjab National Bank
State Bank of India
Union Bank
O ld private banks
City Union Bank
DCB
Federal Bank
Karur Vysya Bank
J&K Bank
New private banks
Axis Bank
HDFC Bank
ICICI Bank
IndusInd Bank
Yes Bank
1QFY15
2QFY15
4QFY15
4QFY15
20.0
24.9
18.2
10.0
15.3
15.9
12.9
18.1
20.7
12.3
5.8
12.1
12.8
9.5
16.9
19.9
17.8
6.4
16.7
14.0
4.6
12.1
16.8
13.1
8.4
15.1
11.9
9.7
8.6
11.5
12.6
5.4
11.1
13.1
6.4
31.8
30.0
25.9
24.3
41.3
44.4
29.5
31.3
28.4
24.2
24.1
39.9
43.5
29.1
31.9
28.4
23.7
24.9
39.9
42.8
28.7
32.4
28.7
24.1
23.7
39.4
42.6
28.7
33.0
29.5
25.5
24.2
40.6
42.9
29.2
8.4
23.5
3.7
13.2
8.0
9.1
26.8
8.5
5.6
9.1
10.0
24.0
13.7
3.4
(5.2)
9.9
23.5
13.5
3.2
1.2
9.3
22.1
18.6
2.1
(5.2)
17.8
25.0
30.8
20.6
39.1
18.1
25.4
30.8
21.0
41.5
18.5
25.5
30.6
21.8
41.8
16.9
23.8
30.5
21.5
41.5
19.2
23.4
30.4
22.0
41.8
11.2
24.0
13.4
11.8
10.8
14.1
22.7
15.3
14.8
16.7
11.1
24.8
13.9
24.4
18.6
11.0
18.6
12.1
23.3
21.0
14.8
22.7
8.9
22.5
22.9
45.0
44.8
42.9
32.5
22.2
42.4
43.0
43.0
33.3
22.3
44.5
43.2
43.7
33.9
22.5
43.1
40.9
44.0
34.1
22.6
44.8
44.0
45.5
34.1
23.1
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
8.2
8.5
11.7
9.9
10.5
10.5
8.3
8.5
11.7
10.3
10.6
10.5
8.4
8.6
11.7
9.9
10.6
10.6
8.1
8.4
11.7
9.9
10.6
10.4
7.7
8.4
11.6
9.5
10.6
10.2
13.1
12.9
11.6
12.0
12.3
13.0
12.8
11.8
12.3
11.3
13.6
12.6
11.7
12.3
11.4
13.1
12.5
11.6
12.3
11.3
13.1
12.6
11.2
11.7
11.4
10.5
11.3
9.9
13.7
12.4
10.6
11.4
9.8
13.5
12.5
10.6
11.4
10.0
13.3
12.2
10.3
11.3
9.8
13.0
12.2
10.4
11.0
9.8
12.8
12.0
Notes:
(a) Yields are KS estimates for Axis Bank, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and Federal Bank.
Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates
19
India
Banks/Financial Institutions
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
5.3
5.6
7.4
7.7
6.1
6.4
7.3
5.2
5.7
7.4
7.8
6.1
6.3
7.2
5.2
5.8
7.4
7.7
6.1
6.3
7.4
5.2
5.7
7.4
7.6
6.1
6.3
7.3
5.2
5.7
7.4
7.7
6.0
6.3
7.3
8.3
7.9
8.3
8.1
6.7
8.3
7.8
7.9
8.1
6.7
8.2
7.7
8.0
8.2
6.5
8.0
7.8
7.9
8.0
6.7
8.1
7.9
7.5
7.7
6.5
6.2
5.8
6.0
6.8
8.4
6.2
5.9
6.0
6.9
8.5
6.2
6.0
6.1
6.7
8.3
6.2
6.1
6.0
6.6
8.1
6.3
5.9
5.9
6.5
7.8
Allahabad Bank
Andhra Bank
Bank of Baroda
Bank of India
Canara Bank
Corporation Bank
OBC
Punjab National Bank
State Bank of India
Union Bank of India
ICICI Bank
Axis Bank
HDFC Bank
Federal Bank
Yes Bank
7-14
days
5.00
6.50
4.50
4.00
4.00
5.50
4.00
4.50
6.00
4.00
4.50
3.50
3.50
4.00
5.75
15-30
days
5.50
6.50
4.50
4.50
4.50
6.00
4.50
4.50
6.00
4.75
4.75
3.50
5.00
5.00
5.75
31-45
days
6.50
6.50
4.50
4.50
6.00
6.00
6.00
5.00
6.00
6.00
5.50
6.00
6.00
5.00
5.75
46-90
days
7.50
6.75
6.50
6.50
6.50
6-7.5
6.75
6.50
7.00
7.00
7.0-7.75
7.50
7.50
7-7.5
7.50
91-179
days
8.50
8.00
7.00
7.00
7.00
7.50
7.75
7.00
7.00
7.25-7.5
7.75
7.5-8.25
8.00
7.50
8.00
180-269
days
8.50
8.25
7.75
7.75
7.75
8.00
8.00
7.75
7.25-7.50
8.25
7.75
8.50
8.25
7.50
8.25
270-364
days
8.50
8.25
8.25
8.25
8.00
8.25
8.00
7.75
7.50
8.25
7.75
8.50
8.25
7.50
8.50
1 Year- less
than 2 years
8.75
8.50
8.50
8.50
8.50
8.50
8.50
8.50
8.00-8.25
8.50
8.0-8.75
8.50
8.50
8.40
8.50
2 Year- less
than 3 years
8.60
8.50
8.50
8.50
8.50
8.50
8.25
8.50
8.25
8.50
8.75
8.50
8.25
8.25
8.50
3 years and
above
8.6-8.5
8.25
8.50-8.00
8.5-8
8.25-8.00
8.50
8.25
8.5-8.25
8.25-8.00
8.50
8.75-8.5
8.50
8.25
8.25
8.50
20
Banks/Financial Institutions
India
Oct-11
10.75
10.75
10.75
10.75
10.75
10.75
10.75
10.75
10.00
10.75
Dec-11
Apr-12
10.65
10.50
10.50
10.50
10.50
10.50
10.50
10.50
10.50
Aug-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
10.25
10.25
10.00
10.25
10.25
10.25
10.20
10.00
9.95
10.40
10.50
9.80
Nov-13
10.25
Jan-14
Apr-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
10.00
9.95
10.00
10.20
10.20
10.25
10.25
10.25
9.70
10.25
9.70
9.70
9.80
10.25
10.00
10.25
10.00
9.80
9.75
10.50
10.75
Sep-13
10.25
9.80
10.65
10.00
10.00
10.00
10.50
May-12
9.60
10.00
10.00
9.85
10.00
10.00
10.15
10.00
9.95
9.75
9.85
10.75
11.00
21
India
Banks/Financial Institutions
Exhibit 36: Contribution from non-treasury non-interest income remained under pressure for
several banks, particularly PSU banks
Yoy growth in non-interest (ex-treasury) income, March fiscal year-ends, 4QFY14-4QFY15 (%)
Public banks
Bank of Baroda
Bank of India
Canara Bank
O riental Bank of Commerce
Punjab National Bank
State Bank of India
Union Bank
O ld private banks
City Union Bank
DCB
Federal Bank
Karur Vysya Bank
J&K Bank
New private banks
Axis Bank
HDFC Bank
ICICI Bank
Yes Bank
IndusInd Bank
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
37.0
(11.3)
31.9
84.9
33.2
16.3
7.9
(2.5)
19.0
17.8
39.5
(3.8)
12.0
14.5
(5.0)
(17.9)
24.4
0.3
63.0
35.4
42.7
5.2
(21.7)
12.9
(0.4)
14.8
9.3
2.5
(24.4)
9.2
(17.9)
(44.1)
4.1
10.9
24.4
(1.0)
10.7
(0.6)
37.7
(27.7)
37.9
3.8
(7.9)
11.0
16.2
47.4
24.9
12.8
24.2
148.8
26.8
15.1
3.4
10.8
14.9
(9.9)
28.0
52.4
0.5
148.8
12.8
13.2
29.1
33.2
28.1
6.7
5.8
18.3
19.2
32.9
(4.8)
(3.3)
15.9
14.6
30.8
6.3
8.2
12.5
35.8
22.4
20.8
20.3
1.4
27.9
28.7
4QFY15
4QFY14
4QFY15
893
830
748
267
2,610
4,011
830
2,242
2,430
909
1,242
2,190
5,868
990
1,790
1,530
1,440
628
2,280
4,528
750
2,436
3,200
3,010
2,048
2,880
9,195
2,520
3,603
2,150
5,090
2,217
6,230
16,589
2,830
6.3
18.5
9.5
5.9
25.2
8.5
15.9
11.5
20.8
9.0
20.7
10.0
11.1
10.1
11.8
13.1
17.7
29.4
20.6
10.9
16.6
22.6
112.4
31.5
(2,662.8)
22.4
22.6
41.1
41.1
(25.9)
70.4
(129.4)
(98.7)
28.5
44.1
149
26
400
2
210
223
43
401
30
153
249
40
420
37
543
400
126
770
307
153
421
68
950
336
543
13.0
6.6
11.0
0.2
5.0
17.2
7.4
12.2
2.3
9.5
21.1
8.7
11.5
3.3
27.9
28.3
25.2
19.3
19.6
9.5
32.0
12.7
22.1
51.6
27.9
2,170
333
2,450
811
16,738
10,188
6,550
2,600
250
3,880
899
24,349
15,871
8,478
2,710
951
1,370
490
19,755
12,945
6,810
3,290
2,655
4,430
885
100
38,405
25,289
13,116
2,750
1,961
7,260
899
207
54,105
38,710
15,395
7.9
1.0
6.6
13.5
7.7
10.8
5.4
10.4
0.7
10.2
14.1
9.8
12.0
7.2
11.1
2.6
3.6
7.5
9.2
13.7
5.6
11.7
6.3
10.9
13.1
1.3
17.7
30.6
9.7
8.3
4.7
17.6
12.1
2.6
26.5
60.2
11.0
22
Banks/Financial Institutions
India
There were apprehensions that the decline in interest rates would result in higher staff costs
but it appears that the final impact was materially lower than initially expected. We would
probably need to see the assumptions made by banks while calculating retirement expenses
to understand this better.
Cost-to-income ratio declined >250 bps to 47% for public banks while private banks
reported a stable ratio of 41%. We are a bit more positive on public banks cost-income
ratio as the peak of NIM correction appears to be complete. Meanwhile, costs led by these
one-off charges are likely to remain for another quarter before growth comes off sharply
and contribution from treasury income to boost non-interest income is likely to show
improvement from current levels. Also, FY2016 would have no amortization of prior costs
items like the pension/gratuity.
Exhibit 38: Increased growth in operating expenses for most banks
Yoy growth in operating expenses, March fiscal year-ends, 4QFY14-4QFY15 (%)
4QFY14
1QFY15
2.6
31.4
23.1
(6.8)
5.9
(0.0)
28.7
12.3
7.4
24.8
(8.9)
9.5
3.3
14.6
14.1
24.7
14.6
2.1
19.1
2.2
16.5
13.7
19.3
18.3
11.5
12.9
5.6
11.0
(5.2)
29.4
20.7
4.6
7.6
22.1
7.0
20.9
16.5
24.8
24.7
8.7
19.2
20.0
13.7
11.1
34.5
16.7
20.9
16.0
7.5
16.6
14.3
26.2
18.4
6.9
22.1
(4.4)
29.5
20.0
11.4
16.6
13.9
1.2
19.6
26.3
20.5
7.1
12.5
9.0
16.8
4.6
13.4
25.0
23.5
7.3
13.0
9.3
18.3
19.2
16.1
34.4
26.1
9.4
18.8
12.5
14.9
19.4
9.5
32.9
24.0
10.2
16.4
12.3
16.1
21.4
7.9
30.0
25.3
16.5
16.5
16.5
Public banks
Bank of Baroda
Bank of India
Canara Bank
O riental Bank of Commerce
Punjab National Bank
State Bank of India
Union Bank
O ld private banks
City Union Bank
DCB
Federal Bank
Karur Vysya Bank
J&K Bank
New private banks
Axis Bank
HDFC Bank
ICICI Bank
Yes Bank
IndusInd Bank
Public banks
Private banks
Total
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
23
India
Banks/Financial Institutions
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
42.0
49.6
47.8
32.9
41.2
45.5
53.3
43.0
44.5
48.1
37.6
44.4
49.8
51.2
45.3
47.1
52.0
47.8
49.6
52.8
53.9
46.6
51.7
49.5
43.9
50.2
51.1
51.1
39.7
64.1
54.6
36.9
42.8
46.6
49.4
46.7
62.4
47.7
57.6
40.7
41.9
53.2
51.2
53.4
46.5
41.7
61.3
48.9
56.2
50.3
45.3
59.8
50.8
51.2
48.5
38.8
61.4
49.5
55.0
40.1
39.6
45.7
39.3
44.9
41.6
45.1
42.5
44.1
42.1
45.3
38.5
45.6
45.4
47.1
43.0
45.6
42.2
46.3
36.5
47.9
40.0
50.8
42.8
47.6
41.1
42.0
36.3
47.4
40.3
50.1
41.1
46.5
38.1
44.9
36.2
46.3
40.2
47.4
41.0
44.9
24
Banks/Financial Institutions
India
2011
26.3
28.3
24.9
28.8
14.8
19.9
24.5
26.9
31.9
27.6
34.8
32.6
26.3
32.5
44.7
18.5
0.8
29.6
21.7
13.8
31.2
2012
13.7
26.3
16.9
25.2
34.6
19.6
29.7
21.0
16.9
22.7
23.0
19.1
19.9
30.6
36.7
8.0
3.6
34.1
25.2
10.5
26.6
2013
23.7
27.2
7.3
8.6
43.5
21.8
23.1
14.9
21.5
27.6
13.4
24.1
13.5
27.2
29.3
(28.2)
4.4
29.6
20.2
(1.6)
22.1
2014
28.4
40.6
17.4
23.0
48.4
20.4
(26.9)
(132.4)
(113.9)
35.6
21.5
28.6
27.9
28.7
32.7
(4.2)
12.4
17.9
22.0
7.2
25.5
1QFY15
69.3
49.5
30.3
31.0
49.9
19.9
41.7
3.0
4.9
30.2
33.5
29.8
39.3
36.1
35.5
11.1
23.9
32.2
55.7
19.9
32.5
2QFY15
66.9
43.2
27.1
32.9
44.7
22.8
25.7
(36.5)
(1,332.8)
42.6
34.3
(50.7)
(36.4)
48.1
25.2
24.1
14.1
39.3
59.1
6.9
30.6
3QFY15
61.9
47.2
69.0
39.1
(46.3)
31.4
15.4
(83.2)
2.6
34.8
34.6
(13.0)
354.4
39.6
28.3
44.3
41.3
50.7
49.3
11.2
39.5
4QFY15
46.3
49.9
31.7
93.2
32.0
15.2
33.1
(15.9)
155.7
29.2
19.1
20.0
(4.1)
148.5
35.7
14.2
30.0
30.9
9.8
(1,313.1)
17.6
25
India
Banks/Financial Institutions
Pric e
29 - May- 15
Market
c ap.
US
EPS (Rs )
20 15 20 16 E 20 17E
PER (X)
20 15 20 16 E 20 17E
ABVPS (Rs )
20 15 20 16 E 20 17E
APBR (X)
20 15 20 16 E 20 17E
Ro E (%)
20 15 20 16 E 20 17E
163
197
343
214
154
278
173
5.6
2.1
2.8
1.0
4.5
33.0
1.7
15
26
57
17
17
18
26
21
50
47
51
24
21
36
28
56
63
59
27
26
51
10.6
7.7
6.0
12.9
9.3
15.8
6.5
7.8
4.0
7.4
4.2
6.4
13.1
4.8
5.8
3.5
5.4
3.6
5.6
10.8
3.4
152
285
437
335
148
147
223
162
322
440
347
170
160
235
183
350
489
393
205
179
270
1.1
0.7
0.8
0.6
1.0
1.9
0.8
1.0
0.6
0.8
0.6
0.9
1.7
0.7
0.9
0.6
0.7
0.5
0.8
1.6
0.6
9.2
6.3
8.8
3.7
8.5
10.5
9.4
11.4
11.4
7.2
10.7
11.3
11.8
11.8
14.0
11.8
9.0
11.4
11.8
12.8
14.9
103
133
143
463
108
1.0
0.6
1.9
0.9
0.8
7
7
12
37
10
7
7
14
58
17
8
8
16
69
18
15.5
19.6
12.2
12.4
10.3
14.2
19.0
10.5
8.0
6.4
12.3
15.9
9.0
6.7
6.0
43
52
87
334
109
48
59
98
363
124
55
66
109
402
142
2.4
2.6
1.6
1.4
1.0
2.1
2.3
1.5
1.3
0.9
1.9
2.0
1.3
1.2
0.8
16.7
14.5
13.7
12.0
8.7
15.1
12.1
14.2
15.6
12.8
15.3
12.7
14.9
16.7
12.4
585
874
1,051
317
882
21.8
7.3
41.3
28.8
5.8
31
34
41
19
48
36
41
50
22
57
41
47
59
26
66
18.9
25.8
25.8
16.6
18.4
16.5
21.5
21.2
14.1
15.4
14.3
18.6
17.8
12.2
13.4
185
191
245
131
278
214
226
282
145
320
247
265
327
163
370
3.2
4.6
4.3
2.4
3.2
2.7
3.9
3.7
2.2
2.8
2.4
3.3
3.2
1.9
2.4
17.7
19.0
18.2
14.5
21.3
17.5
19.2
17.7
15.5
18.9
17.4
18.9
19.1
16.2
18.9
1,527
579
442
1,236
638
155
187
419
65
100
270
470
195
273
296
1,678
824
462
3.8
1.3
1.0
30.5
15.7
3.9
0.9
3.3
1.7
0.4
2.4
2.0
1.2
5.6
4.6
1.7
2.9
0.9
106
30
46
40
31
11
14
30
5
9
15
11
17
45
57
85
56
15
115
34
55
47
36
8
17
36
5
10
18
11
21
46
57
102
73
19
133
42
65
55
43
12
21
39
6
11
21
14
26
49
59
123
89
26
14.4
19.2
9.5
30.6
20.7
14.3
13.0
13.9
13.0
11.4
18.3
44.7
11.6
6.0
5.2
19.8
14.6
31.0
13.2
16.9
8.1
26.4
17.8
18.8
10.7
11.7
13.0
10.0
15.0
44.5
9.4
5.9
5.2
16.4
11.3
24.0
11.5
13.9
6.8
22.3
14.7
13.1
8.8
10.8
10.8
8.9
13.0
33.8
7.6
5.6
5.0
13.7
9.3
17.8
689
182
324
203
146
108
83
165
37
87
96
124
128
235
223
635
402
83
792
230
351
227
170
116
100
192
41
100
112
158
142
212
251
724
448
102
936
268
403
256
199
127
121
226
47
109
127
184
158
246
293
831
498
128
2.2
3.2
1.4
6.1
4.4
1.4
2.3
2.5
1.7
1.2
2.8
3.8
1.5
1.2
1.3
2.6
2.0
5.6
1.9
2.5
1.3
5.4
3.7
1.3
1.9
2.2
1.6
1.0
2.4
3.0
1.4
1.3
1.2
2.3
1.8
4.5
1.6
2.2
1.1
4.8
3.2
1.2
1.5
1.9
1.4
0.9
2.1
2.6
1.2
1.1
1.0
2.0
1.7
3.6
16.7
17.5
16.3
21.2
23.8
10.4
20.1
18.1
13.9
10.7
15.5
8.8
14.3
19.9
24.3
15.8
14.3
25.0
15.6
17.0
15.7
21.8
24.1
7.4
20.0
19.3
12.6
11.7
16.8
7.5
15.4
17.6
20.5
15.1
16.3
20.8
15.4
16.7
16.1
23.0
26.0
9.8
19.9
19.8
13.5
11.0
17.3
8.1
17.2
16.4
18.4
15.8
17.2
22.6
26
Banks/Financial Institutions
India
Exhibit 42: Banks and financials have had an outperformance in recent months
Absolute and relative performance of stocks (%)
C h an g e in pric e (%)
1 mo n th 3 mo n th 6 mo n th 12 mo n th
Pub lic b an ks
Bank of Baroda
(3.8)
Bank of India
(9.0)
Canara Bank
(9.3)
Indian Bank
19.2
IO B
(2.6)
O BC
5.2
PNB
(3.8)
O ld private b an ks
City Union Bank
8.8
DCB
9.1
Federal Bank
8.8
Karur Vysya Bank
(3.8)
J&K Bank
12.0
N ew private b an ks
Axis Bank
3.1
IndusInd Bank
6.1
HDFC Bank
6.2
ICICI Bank
(4.2)
Yes Bank
5.1
N o n - b an ks
Bajaj Finserv
6.4
Cholamandalam
(1.6)
Dewan houisng
(1.1)
HDFC
5.6
IDFC
(8.0)
IIFL Holdings
7.4
LIC Housing Finance
(2.6)
L&T Finance Holdings
2.4
Magma Fincorp
9.8
Max India
9.7
MMFS
1.0
Muthoot Finance
6.3
PFC
2.6
REC
(4.9)
Shriram City Union Finance
(13.0)
Shriram Transport
(15.1)
SKS Microfinance
(1.6)
Ytd
52
week
h ig h
(Rs )
52
week
lo w
(Rs )
(12.2)
(15.8)
(17.4)
(9.6)
(12.0)
(10.6)
(7.2)
(24.9)
(31.0)
(15.4)
(11.5)
(23.5)
(30.3)
(28.8)
(3.5)
(36.2)
(17.2)
(2.4)
(44.1)
(36.8)
(18.6)
(25.0)
(34.7)
(23.5)
(23.5)
(30.5)
(36.9)
(29.9)
(6.6)
(11.6)
(11.9)
15.7
(5.5)
2.1
(6.6)
(6.6)
(10.1)
(11.5)
(4.1)
(6.5)
(5.1)
(1.9)
(21.8)
(27.7)
(12.5)
(8.7)
(20.5)
(27.0)
(25.6)
(16.0)
(44.5)
(28.0)
(15.1)
(51.4)
(45.0)
(29.2)
(25.9)
(35.4)
(24.4)
(24.4)
(31.4)
(37.6)
(30.7)
229
333
498
224
90
371
232
143
188
332
132
40
183
142
3.3
16.8
0.1
(21.2)
(5.2)
12.5
27.0
(3.2)
(12.1)
(22.9)
50.8
91.5
22.9
3.4
(28.2)
9.1
10.1
(5.8)
(19.3)
(28.1)
5.6
5.9
5.6
(6.7)
8.7
8.1
21.0
5.1
(15.2)
(0.0)
14.7
28.8
(0.7)
(9.3)
(19.9)
31.2
66.7
6.9
(10.1)
(37.5)
7.8
8.8
(6.9)
(20.2)
(29.0)
104
137
154
619
177
68
69
111
446
94
(4.4)
(4.6)
(1.9)
(8.3)
2.4
19.7
13.1
10.6
(9.8)
23.5
59.4
63.7
32.5
11.9
55.0
16.5
8.9
10.4
(10.2)
14.3
0.1
3.0
3.1
(7.0)
2.0
0.7
0.5
3.1
(3.0)
7.2
21.7
15.2
12.8
(7.0)
25.4
38.7
42.4
15.3
(2.7)
34.8
15.1
7.6
9.1
(11.2)
12.9
655
967
1,109
393
910
350
521
791
267
502
8.5
1.6
(10.5)
(7.4)
(10.8)
7.8
(12.5)
(3.5)
6.2
2.0
9.0
(18.1)
(7.0)
(10.4)
(16.8)
(32.5)
5.8
32.8
25.7
10.7
8.7
(2.0)
5.3
(0.7)
(7.6)
(9.1)
25.1
(11.5)
(0.1)
(12.4)
(13.6)
(1.2)
(26.3)
31.2
79.2
85.4
46.8
41.0
22.4
72.3
31.8
(11.0)
9.1
78.2
(10.7)
(0.2)
(6.6)
(7.3)
17.1
(13.0)
57.2
16.8
22.3
11.9
8.8
(1.8)
9.3
(3.9)
(4.7)
(3.0)
18.6
(18.0)
1.4
(9.6)
(11.6)
(13.6)
(25.7)
11.9
3.3
(4.5)
(4.0)
2.5
(10.7)
4.3
(5.4)
(5.0)
6.6
6.5
(2.0)
3.2
2.6
(7.7)
(15.6)
(17.6)
(4.5)
13.0
6.5
(5.0)
(2.1)
(5.3)
12.4
(6.9)
(7.8)
10.8
6.9
13.5
(12.2)
(7.0)
(4.9)
(11.0)
(25.9)
10.5
34.5
27.6
13.0
10.9
0.6
7.7
1.8
(20.0)
(6.3)
26.9
(8.7)
2.4
(12.4)
(10.8)
1.4
(23.1)
33.0
56.0
61.3
27.7
22.7
6.5
49.9
14.7
(35.0)
(5.0)
55.1
(22.3)
(13.1)
(6.6)
(19.4)
1.9
(24.3)
36.8
15.4
20.8
10.6
7.5
(2.9)
8.0
(5.0)
(21.1)
(4.2)
17.2
(19.0)
0.2
(9.6)
(12.7)
(14.6)
(26.6)
10.6
1,575
635
570
1,402
188
199
509
83
142
522
345
255
345
383
2,200
1,288
525
837
327
301
871
123
107
276
60
82
256
232
166
219
233
1,380
761
250
27
India
Banks/Financial Institutions
15
3.5
1.6
12
2.8
20
1.2
2.1
15
0.8
1.4
10
0.4
0.7
25
May-15
May-14
May-13
PER (RHS)
May-12
May-11
May-10
May-09
PBR (LHS)
May-08
May-15
May-14
PER (RHS)
May-12
May-11
May-10
May-09
May-08
PBR (LHS)
May-13
2.0
Exhibit 45: Divergence in valuation declined between public and private banks
Adjusted PBR and PER of private and public banks, March fiscal year-ends, 2008- 2015 (X)
PBR (LHS)
PER (RHS)
May-15
Nov-14
May-14
Nov-13
1.0
May-13
1.0
Nov-12
1.6
May-12
1.6
Nov-11
2.2
May-11
2.2
Nov-10
2.8
May-10
2.8
Nov-09
3.4
May-09
3.4
Nov-08
4.0
May-08
4.0
28
Disclosures
"I, M.B. Mahesh, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the
subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be,
directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report."
70%
60%
50%
38.0%
40%
30%
24.7%
21.1%
20%
10%
16.3%
4.2%
4.8%
1.2%
1.2%
REDUCE
SELL
0%
BUY
ADD
Other definitions
Coverage view. The coverage view represents each analysts overall fundamental outlook on the Sector. The coverage view will consist of one of the following
designations: Attractive, Neutral, Cautious.
Other ratings/identifiers
NR = Not Rated. The investment rating and target price, if any, have been suspended temporarily. Such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulation(s)
and/or Kotak Securities policies in circumstances when Kotak Securities or its affiliates is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction
involving this company and in certain other circumstances.
CS = Coverage Suspended. Kotak Securities has suspended coverage of this company.
NC = Not Covered. Kotak Securities does not cover this company.
RS = Rating Suspended. Kotak Securities Research has suspended the investment rating and price target, if any, for this stock, because there is not a sufficient
fundamental basis for determining an investment rating or target. The previous investment rating and price target, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock
and should not be relied upon.
NA = Not Available or Not Applicable. The information is not available for display or is not applicable.
NM = Not Meaningful. The information is not meaningful and is therefore excluded.
29
Corporate Office
Overseas Offices
155-157 Minories
Tel: +91-22-43360000
Tel: +44-20-7977-6900
Tel:+1-914-997-6120
Copyright 2015 Kotak Institutional Equities (Kotak Securities Limited). All rights reserved.
1. Note that the research analysts contributing to this report may not be registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA; and
2. Such research analysts may not be associated persons of Kotak Mahindra Inc and therefore, may not be subject to NASD Rule 2711 restrictions on
communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
3. Any U.S. recipients of the research who wish to effect transactions in any security covered by the report should do so with or through Kotak Mahindra Inc and
(ii) any transactions in the securities covered by the research by U.S. recipients must be effected only through Kotak Mahindra Inc at nilesh.jain@kotak.com.
Kotak Securities Limited and its affiliates are a full-service, integrated investment banking, investment management, brokerage and financing group. We along with
our affiliates are leading underwriter of securities and participants in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our affiliates have investment banking
and other business relationships with a significant percentage of the companies covered by our Investment Research Department. Our research professionals
provide important input into our investment banking and other business selection processes. Investors should assume that Kotak Securities Limited and/or its
affiliates are seeking or will seek investment banking or other business from the company or companies that are the subject of this material and that the research
professionals who were involved in preparing this material may participate in the solicitation of such business. Our research professionals are paid in part based on
the profitability of Kotak Securities Limited, which include earnings from investment banking and other business. Kotak Securities Limited generally prohibits its
analysts, persons reporting to analysts, and members of their households from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that
the analysts cover. Additionally, Kotak Securities Limited generally prohibits its analysts and persons reporting to analysts from serving as an officer, director, or
advisory board member of any companies that the analysts cover. Our salespeople, traders, and other professionals may provide oral or written market
commentary or trading strategies to our clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein, and our proprietary trading and investing
businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. In reviewing these materials, you should be aware
that any or all of the foregoing, among other things, may give rise to real or potential conflicts of interest. Additionally, other important information regarding our
relationships with the company or companies that are the subject of this material is provided herein.
This material should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation
would be illegal. We are not soliciting any action based on this material. It is for the general information of clients of Kotak Securities Limited. It does not constitute
a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Before acting on any advice
or recommendation in this material, clients should consider whether it is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. The
price and value of the investments referred to in this material and the income from them may go down as well as up, and investors may realize losses on any
investments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance, future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of original capital may occur. Kotak Securities
Limited does not provide tax advise to its clients, and all investors are strongly advised to consult with their tax advisers regarding any potential investment.
Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options, and other derivatives as well as non-investment-grade securities - give rise to substantial risk and
are not suitable for all investors. The material is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it
should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. We endeavor to update on a
reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, but regulatory, compliance, or other reasons may prevent us from doing so. We and our affiliates,
officers, directors, and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this material, may from time to time have long or short
positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein. Kotak Securities Limited and its non US affiliates
may, to the extent permissible under applicable laws, have acted on or used this research to the extent that it relates to non US issuers, prior to or immediately
following its publication. Foreign currency denominated securities are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that could have an adverse effect on the value or
price of or income derived from the investment. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs, the value of which are influenced by foreign currencies affectively
assume currency risk. In addition options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Please ensure that you have read and understood the current derivatives
risk disclosure document before entering into any derivative transactions.
Kotak Securities Limited established in 1994, is a subsidiary of Kotak Mahindra Bank Limited. Kotak Securities is one of Indias largest brokerage and distribution
house.
Kotak Securities Limited is a corporate trading and clearing member of Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (BSE), National Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSE), MCX
Stock Exchange Limited (MCX-SX) and United Stock Exchange of India Limited (USEIL). Our businesses include stock broking, services rendered in connection with
distribution of primary market issues and financial products like mutual funds and fixed deposits, depository services and Portfolio Management.
Kotak Securities Limited is also a depository participant with National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) and Central Depository Services (India) Limited (CDSL).
Kotak Securities Limited is also registered with Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority as Corporate Agent for Kotak Mahindra Old Mutual Life Insurance
Limited and is also a Mutual Fund Advisor registered with Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI)
We hereby declare that our activities were neither suspended nor we have defaulted with any stock exchange authority with whom we are registered in last five
years. However SEBI, Exchanges and Depositories have conducted the routine inspection and based on their observations have issued advise letters or levied minor
penalty on KSL for certain operational deviations. We have not been debarred from doing business by any Stock Exchange / SEBI or any other authorities; nor has
our certificate of registration been cancelled by SEBI at any point of time.
We offer our research services to primarily institutional investors and their employees, directors, fund managers, advisors who are registered with us
Details of Associates are available on our website i.e. www.kotak.com
Research Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of Subject Company. We or our associates have received compensation from the subject
company in the past 12 months. We or our associates have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in the past 12 months.
We or our associates have received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12
months. We or our associates have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services
from the subject company in the past 12 months. We or our associates have received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party
in connection with the research report.
Research Analyst or his/her relatives may have financial interest in the subject company. Kotak Securities Limited or its associates have financial interest in the
subject company. Research Analyst or his/her relatives does not have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company at the end of the
month immediately preceding the date of publication of Research Report: Kotak Securities Limited does not have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more
securities of the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of Research Report. Associates of Kotak Securities Limited
may have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of
Research Report. Subject Company has been client during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of the research report.
A graph of daily closing prices of securities is available at www.nseindia.com and http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/stock-quotes. (Choose a
company from the list on the browser and select the three years icon in the price chart).
Kotak Securities Limited. Registered Office: 27 BKC, C 27, G Block, Bandra Kurla Complex, Bandra (E), Mumbai 400051. CIN: U99999MH1994PLC134051,
Telephone No.: +22 43360000, Fax No.: +22 67132430. Website: www.kotak.com. SEBI Registration No: NSE INB/INF/INE 230808130, BSE INB 010808153/INF
011133230, MCXSX INE 260808130/INB 260808135/INF 260808135, AMFI ARN 0164 and PMS INP000000258. NSDL: IN-DP-NSDL-23-97. CDSL: IN-DP-CDSL158-2001. Compliance Officer Details: Mr. Manoj Agarwal. Call: 022- 4285 6825 or Email: ks.compliance@kotak.com