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45

Eiichi Taniguchi and Russell G. Thompson

Urban freight systems are experiencing many problems due to higher levels of service and lower costs being demanded by shippers, with carriers

having to operate in increasingly congested road conditions. Trucks operating in urban areas produce many negative impacts for society in terms

of emissions, crashes, noise, and vibration. City logistics aims to globally

optimize urban freight systems by considering the costs and benefits of

schemes to the public as well as the private sector. The concepts of city

logistics are introduced, and an outline is presented of some models that

have recently been developed to predict the consequences of intelligent

transportation systems. In particular, a stochastic vehicle routing and

scheduling procedure that incorporates the variation of travel times is

described. Results indicate that this approach can lead to significant

reduction in operating costs by carriers as well as shorter routes with

fewer trucks and increased reliability for customers. This procedure also

reduces emissions and fuel consumption.

manner. City logistics models need to recognize these factors.

Quantification of the consequences of city logistics initiatives is

necessary for their evaluation and planning. Predicting the impacts

of city logistics initiatives for evaluation purposes requires modeling

to be undertaken. Models should describe the behavior of the key

stakeholders involved in urban freight transport. They should also

incorporate the activities of freight carriers, including transporting

and loading and unloading goods at depots or customers. Models

must also describe the traffic flow on urban roads for freight vehicles

as well as passenger cars. Models are also required to quantify the

changes in costs of logistics activities, traffic congestion, emissions

of hazardous gases, and noise levels after implementing city logistics

initiatives.

transport. Shippers and freight carriers are required to provide higher

levels of service with lower costs to meet various needs of customers.

They have made efforts to rationalize their freight transportation systems, but this has often led to an increase in pickupdelivery truck

traffic in urban areas. This increase in the number of freight vehicles

using urban roads has become a major source of traffic congestion,

with many associated negative environmental impacts, such as air

pollution and noise. In addition, current global environmental agreements urge freight carriers to reduce CO2 emissions produced from

their vehicles as well as from passenger cars.

Some researchers [e.g., Ruske (1), Kohler (2), Taniguchi and van

der Heijden (3), and Taniguchi et al. (4)] have proposed the idea of

city logistics to solve these difficult problems. The definition of city

logistics can be stated as the process for totally optimizing the logistics and transport activities by private companies with the support of

advanced information systems in urban areas considering the traffic

environment, its congestion, safety and energy savings within the

framework of a market economy (5). Although some of the city

logistics initiatives listed below have only been proposed, others have

already been implemented in several cities:

MODELING FRAMEWORK

Cooperative freight transport systems,

Public logistics terminals,

Load factor controls, and

Underground freight transport systems.

There are four key stakeholders involved in urban freight transportation: (a) shippers, (b) freight carriers, (c) residents, and (d) administrators. All of these key stakeholders in urban freight transportation

E. Taniguchi, Department of Civil Engineering, Kyoto University, Yoshidahonmachi,

Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8501, Japan. R. G. Thompson, Department of Civil and

Environmental Engineering, University of Melbourne, Victoria 3010, Australia.

is a key component (4). Models are used to estimate the effects of

various changes in the urban distribution system without actually

changing the system. There are three general types of network models that are typically used for predicting the effects of city logistics

initiatives: (a) supply models, (b) demand models, and (c) impact

models (6). Supply models are used to predict the level of service of

the freight system based on network characteristics and estimated

demand. Demand models predict the demand for urban goods movement on specific transportation links based on industry and resident

characteristics within an urban area as well as the level of service on

the links. Impact models predict the financial, energy, social, environmental, and economic impacts of city logistics initiatives based

on the predicted demand and level of service.

The modeling framework adopted in this paper is composed of

two submodels: (a) a probabilistic model for vehicle (pickupdelivery truck) routing and scheduling problem with time windows

(VRPTW-P) for each company and (b) a dynamic traffic simulation

model for the fleet of pickupdelivery trucks and passenger cars on

the road network within the city.

The optimal assignment of vehicles to customers, the departure

time, and the visiting order of customers for each freight carrier are

determined by the VRPTW-P model and become inputs to the dynamic traffic-simulation model. The dynamic traffic-simulation

model is based on a macroscopic dynamic-simulation BOX model

(7 ). This model estimates the distribution of travel times on each

link in 1-h intervals. The VRPTW-P model is then re-solved using

the updated distribution of travel times on each link obtained from

the BOX model. Thus, the distribution of travel times for each link

is represented by a normal distribution, in 1-h time intervals. The

model, therefore, incorporates time-dependent travel times.

There are many commercial software packages for vehicle routing

and scheduling. However, they generally use one value of forecasted

46

new model that incorporates the variation of travel times using stochastic programming techniques. The model uses historical data of

travel times.

STOCHASTIC VEHICLE ROUTING

AND SCHEDULING

Penalty (yen/min.)

Cd ,n(i )

Ce,n(i )

1

1 t sn(i )

t en(i )

Arrival time

(min.)

has led to many environmental and social problems, such as air pollution, crashes, and noise. There is, therefore, a need to establish effective procedures for minimizing the environmental and social costs of

transporting goods within cities.

Distribution Trends

Driven freight transportation systems (DFTS) characterize many

contemporary logistics services in manufacturing and retail sectors.

Intelligent transportation systems (ITS) is a fundamental component

of just-in-time, quick-response, and efficient-consumer-response

systems (8). However, narrow customer-specified time windows can

lead to substantial increases in the travel time and number of trucks

used to deliver goods (4). Such customer demands are leading to

more distance being traveled by trucks, resulting in increased emissions, noise, and energy consumption. Therefore, new procedures

need to be developed that support DFTS but reduce the social and

environmental costs of such delivery systems.

and delay (yen/min.)

Arrival time

(min.)

FIGURE 1 Penalty for early arrival and delay at

customers for the probabilistic model.

Intelligent Transportation Systems

Many cities have already developed extensive monitoring systems

capable of collecting vast amounts of data relating to the performance of urban traffic networks. Numerous ITS have already been

developed to automatically collect vehicle travel times (9). Technology incorporating vehicle license-plate recognition using imageprocessing techniques has been implemented to collect and predict

vehicle travel times in real time (10).

Several other methods can be used to automatically collect travel

time information for trucks, including specialized equipment within

vehicles such as global positioning systems (GPS) or electronic tags.

GPS allow the dynamic location of a vehicle to be determined using

satellite technology. Electronic tags installed on vehicles can be

detected by induction loops or other electronic scanning equipment

as trucks pass detectors. Travel times can be determined by comparing multiple readings of the same vehicle at different locations in the

network. Many cities now have some form of automatic travel-time

data-collection systems for performance monitoring and congestion

management. Private companies can also use such technology to

monitor travel times as part of their fleet management systems.

Stochastic Programming

Stochastic programming allows historical travel-time patterns that are

represented by probability distributions to be used in vehicle routing

and scheduling optimization procedures. Here, the objective function

explicitly incorporates expected penalty costs that are estimated

using stochastic travel times and the penalties incurred for arrivals at

customers outside the designated time windows (Equation 1 and

Figure 1).

The VRPTW-P model is defined where a depot and a number of customers are specified for each freight carrier. A fleet of identical vehicles collects goods from customers and delivers them to the depot or

delivers goods to customers from the depot. A designated time window specifies the desired time period the customer is to be visited.

For example, in the case of collecting goods, vehicles depart from

the depot and visit a subset of customers for picking up goods in

sequence and return to the depot to unload them. A vehicle is allowed

to make multiple trips per day. Each customer must be assigned to

exactly one route of a vehicle, and all the goods from each customer

must be loaded on the vehicle at the same time. The total weight of

the goods in a route must not exceed the capacity of the vehicle. This

problem is used to determine the optimal assignment of vehicles to

customers, the departure time, and the order of visiting customers for

a freight carrier. The VRPTW-P model explicitly incorporates the

distribution of travel times for identifying the optimal routes and

departure times of vehicles.

The VRPTW-P model minimizes the total cost of distributing

goods with truck-capacity and designated-time constraints. The total

cost is composed of three components: (a) fixed cost of vehicles;

(b) vehicle operating cost, that is, proportional to time traveled and

spent waiting at customers; and (c) delay penalty for missing the

designated pickup or delivery time at customers.

Let

C(t0, X) = total cost (yen);

t0 = departure time vector for all vehicles at

the depot, t0 = {tl,0 l = 1, m};

X = assignment and order of visiting customers for all vehicles, X = {xl l = 1, m};

xl = assignment and order of visiting customers for vehicle l, xl = {n(i)i = 1, Nl};

vehicle;

d( j) = number of depots (= 0);

Nl = total number of customers visited by

vehicle l;

n0 = total number of d( j) in xl ;

m = maximum number of vehicles available;

cf,l = fixed cost for vehicle l (yen /vehicle);

l (xl) = 1 if vehicle l is used, 0 otherwise;

Ct,l (tl,0, xl) = operating cost for vehicle l (yen);

Cp,l (tl,0, xl) = penalty cost for vehicle l (yen);

ct,l = operating cost per minute for vehicle l

(yen/minute);

tl,n(i) = departure time of vehicle l at customer

n(i);

_

T (tl,n(i), n(i), n(i + 1)) = average travel time of vehicle l between

customer n(i) and n(i + 1) at time tl, n(i);

tc,n(i) = loading/unloading time at customer n(i);

pl,n(i) (tl, 0, t, xl) = probability that a vehicle departing the

depot at time tl, 0 arrives at customer n(i)

at time t;

cd,n(i) (t) = delay penalty cost per minute at customer

n(i) (yen/minute);

ce,n(i) (t) = early arrival penalty cost per minute at

customer n(i) (yen/minute);

N = total number of customers;

D [n(i)] = demand of customer n(i) in kilograms;

tl,0 = last arrival time of vehicle l at the depot;

ts = starting of possible operation time of

trucks;

te = end of possible operation time of trucks,

Wl (xl) = load of vehicle l (kg); and

Wc,l = capacity of vehicle l (kg).

Then the model can be formulated as follows:

Minimize

C( t 0 , X ) =

f ,l

l (x l ) +

l =1

E[C

t ,l

l =1

E[C

(tl , 0 , x l )]

(tl , 0 , x l )]

(1)

(2)

p, l

l =1

where

Nl

i=0

Nl

E[Cp, l (tl , 0 , x l )] =

i=0

l, n(i )

(3)

subject to

n0 2

m

( 4)

= N

(5)

l =1

D[n(i)] = W (x )

l

n( i ) xl

(6)

47

Wl ( x l ) Wc , l

( 7)

ts tl , 0

(8)

tl, 0 te

( 9)

where

tl, 0 = tl , 0 +

Nl

{T [t

l,n(i )

i=0

(10)

the variable X, that is, the assignment of vehicles and the visiting

order of customers, and the variable t0, the departure time of vehicles from the depot. Note that n(0) and n(Nl + 1) represent the depot

in Equations 2 and 3.

The distribution of travel times is required in Equation 1 for determining the expected value of operating costs and penalty costs. This

is the major difference between the probabilistic model (VRPTW-P)

and the standard or forecast model (VRPTW-F), with the forecast

model using only one value to represent the travel times, whereas

travel times in the probabilistic model are represented by a statistical

distribution. The dynamic traffic simulation calculates the distribution of travel times, which can be approximated by the normal distribution for every hour. Then the updated normal distribution is used

as input to the probabilistic model.

Figure 1 shows the penalty for vehicle delay and early arrivals at

s ) of the penalty function

customers. The time period (t en(i) t n(i)

defines the width of the soft time window in which vehicles are

requested to arrive at customers. If a vehicle arrives at a customer

s , it must wait until the start of the designated time

earlier than t n(i)

window and a cost is incurred during waiting. If a vehicle is delayed,

it must pay a penalty proportional to the amount of time it was

delayed. This type of penalty is typically observed in goods distribution to shops and supermarkets in urban areas. Multiplying the

penalty function and the probability of arrival time as shown in Figure 1 can identify the penalty of early arrival and delay at customers

for the probabilistic model. The forecast model assumes the particular time of a truck arrival. Therefore, the penalty for early arrival

and delay can be estimated by multiplying the penalty function by

the amount of time the truck arrives early or late.

The VRPTW-P is a nondeterministic polynomial (NP)-hard

combinatorial optimization problem. It requires heuristic methods

to efficiently obtain good solutions. Recently, several researchers

have applied heuristic algorithms such as genetic algorithms (GAs)

[e.g., Thangiah et al. (11)], simulated annealing [e.g., Kokubugata

et al. (12)], and tabu search [e.g., Potvin et al. (13)] to obtain approximate solutions for the VRPTW. Gendreau et al. reviewed the application of such modern heuristic approaches to VRP and described

the potential of such methods for tackling complex, difficult combinatorial optimization problems (14). The model described in this

paper uses a GA to solve the VRPTW-P. GA was selected because

it is a heuristic procedure that can simultaneously determine the

departure time and the assignment of vehicles as well as the visiting

order of customers. GA generally starts with an initial population of

individuals (solutions) and from these a next generation (set of solutions) is produced. Parents of subsequent generations are selected

based on their performance or fitness. Using the characteristics of the

parents, a number of operations are performed (crossover and mutation) to produce successive generations and to avoid local optimal

solutions. Generations continue to be produced until a satisfactory

solution is found.

48

This model adopts the delay penalty that depends on the delay

times at customers. However, if a truck of a freight carrier often

arrives late at customers, it will have difficulty in renewing the contract the next time. The model represents such circumstances in a

mathematical way. Therefore, it is not easy to quantify the delay

penalty. If the delay penalty is increased, freight costs will obviously

increase. The early-arrival penalty can be simply time costs of waiting at nearby customers.

The dynamic traffic simulation (modified BOX) model is based on

a model that was originally developed by Fujii et al. (7 ). This model

is essentially a macroscopic model, but because the origin and destination of each vehicle are defined, it is actually a hybrid macroscopic/

microscopic model. Vehicles are assumed to choose the shortest path

when they arrive at a node using an estimated average travel time.

The modified BOX model consists of two components: flow simulation and route-choice simulation. A sequence of boxes is used to represent each link. Groups of vehicles flowing out of a box and into the

next box during the scanning interval represent the flow on links.

There are two assumptions for modeling links: (a) the maximum flow

during a scanning interval is the same for all sections on links, and

(b) no inflow and outflow are allowed in the middle of links. A consequence of the first assumption is that only the lowest section of a

link can be a bottleneck, where a congestion queue starts. Two states

of flow, congested flow and free flow, are represented. The time for

a vehicle to proceed through a congested queue Tc is given by

Fc

Ce

Tc =

(11)

effluent traffic volume.

The effluent traffic volume is the traffic volume that can flow out

of the lowest section of a link into the lower link. The time required

to go through the running area without any queue Tf is estimated by

Tf =

Lf

Vf

Tf =

Lf K

Qmax

if K K0 =

Qmax

Vf

if K > K0 =

Qmax

Vf

(12)

from the current node to the destination using their cognitive map. It

is assumed that all drivers have some experience in driving within

the defined network. The function for estimating the link cost is

Ck = Tkt + k

(14)

where

Ck = estimated cost on link k,

Tkt = travel time on link k at time t, and

k = disturbance term.

In this study, the disturbance term k is assumed to be normally

distributed, with the zero mean and variance 2 represented by

k ~ N (0, 2 )

(15)

VRPTW-P APPLICATIONS

Test Conditions

The model described in the previous section was applied to a test

network with 25 nodes and 40 links, as shown in Figure 2. This road

network is composed of the same type of roads, with free running

speed of 40 km/h. Any node within the network can generate and

attract passenger-car traffic. These nodes are referred to as centroids

and are also candidate nodes to be visited by pickupdelivery trucks.

Ten freight carriers are assumed to operate a maximum of 12 pickup

delivery trucks in this network. Each freight carrier has one depot

that is randomly located on the network. Three different types of

trucks, having capacities of 2, 4, and 10 tons, respectively, can be

used. However, only up to four trucks of each type can be operated

by each carrier. The passenger-car equivalence rates, operating

costs, and fixed costs for each type of pickupdelivery truck are

based on results from recent studies of truck operations in Japan.

The number of customers for each carrier was generated randomly

between 14 and 22. The actual nodes to be visited for each carrier

were also determined randomly from all nodes in the network. The

freight demand at each customer was determined based on the distribution of freight demand at Kobe City.

(13)

@2.67km * 4 = 10.7km

Lf

Vf

K

K0

Qmax

=

=

=

=

=

free running speed,

traffic density,

critical traffic density, and

maximum traffic volume.

pickupdelivery trucks that depart from a depot and return to the

same depot. Pickupdelivery trucks are converted to passenger-car

units and the first-in, first-out rule is assumed on all links. The model

was further modified to identify the arrival of specific vehicles at

assigned nodes (customers).

The simulation model described above estimates travel times on

each link and allows link costs to be determined. Drivers are assumed

to compose a cognitive map for each link based on its estimated link

cost. Drivers then choose routes based on their minimum travel cost

@2.67km * 4 = 10.7km

where

1

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

FIGURE 2

1-h time windows for morning (9:0012:00), afternoon (13:0017:00),

and no time window. The type and starting time of each customers time window were based on a recent survey in the Kobe

and Osaka areas. The dynamic traffic simulation provides the distribution of travel times on each link for the scanning interval. In

this study, the scanning interval is 1 h. When the optimal routes

and schedules were initially calculated, the average travel times on

each link were assumed to be equal to the travel times using free

running speeds.

The dynamic traffic simulation requires information on passengercar behavior and on optimal routes and schedules of pickupdelivery

trucks produced by the VRPTW-P model. This includes the departure time and visiting order of customers. Passenger cars in this study

include actual passenger cars and trucks other than those that are considered in the optimal routing and scheduling model. Passenger car

origindestination (O-D) tables for every hour were estimated using

traffic generation rates at each centroid and the probability of O-D

choice. The number of passenger cars for each hour was generated

using a temporal demand pattern based on the traffic census conducted

in Kobe City.

The model described here uses an iterative procedure for representing day-to-day variation. Therefore, the travel time provided by

the dynamic simulation fluctuates between days. Figure 3 shows the

calculation procedure. Here, the generation of total passenger cars

changed 4,375 vehicles/day 10% at all nodes (175 vehicles/day

at each node). After 10 days of operation, the iterative procedure

stopped. The fluctuation of travel time at each link was within 5%.

At the end of 10 days of operation, optimal routes and schedules

were determined for freight carriers. Then they encountered three

different traffic conditions, Cases A, B, and C. The total generation

of passenger cars per day for Case A was 6,500 vehicles/day; for

Case B, 5,450 vehicles/day; and for Case C, 4,375 vehicles/day at all

nodes. The generation at Case C is the same as in the previous 10 days

of operation. This generation was uniformly located at all nodes.

Case A was more congested than Case B, which was more congested

than Case C. The average speeds of Cases A, B, and C were 30, 35,

and 38 km/h, respectively.

VRP model

49

Results

Table 1 shows the change in total costs for 10 freight carriers for the

three traffic conditions. The table indicates that the probabilistic

model can reduce the total costs compared with the forecast model

in all cases. The reduction of total costs from the forecast model

increases in Cases A and B, with higher levels of congestion than

Case C. This means that freight carriers can obtain more benefits by

using the probabilistic model when traffic congestion becomes

worse. The value of the stochastic solution (VSS) is defined as the

percentage of the total cost reduction by using the probabilistic

model from the forecast model. The VSS in the three cases is 11%

to 17%, which is a considerable amount of benefit by incorporating

the uncertainty of travel times.

Table 1 also indicates that the delay penalty decreased by 24% to

35% with the probabilistic model, which means that this model provides better service to customers by reducing the risk of delay. However, the early arrival penalty increased by 8% to 11%. The fixed cost

in three cases increased by about 5%, and the operation cost remained

at the same level as for the forecasted model. The small increase in the

fixed cost is due to the slight increase in the number of trucks used by

the 10 freight carriers as shown in Table 2. The table shows that the

number of 2-ton trucks was reduced by one and that two additional

4-ton trucks were used in the optimal routes and schedules of the

VRPTW-P model. As the authors assumed that each freight carrier

has 12 pickupdelivery trucks, the increase in the number of trucks is

within the limitation of owned pickupdelivery trucks.

Here is an examination of why the probabilistic model can

decrease total costs. Figures 4 and 5 show an example of an optimal

diagram of operating trucks given by probabilistic and forecasted

models at the end of 10 days of operation in Figure 3. In Figures 4

and 5, the horizontal lines, which reach both ends of the graph, indicate that the depot and other horizontal lines show the time windows

of customers. These figures demonstrate that trucks tend to arrive at

customers earlier within the time window for the probabilistic model

than for the forecasted model. In this case in Figures 4 and 5, the

total delay time by the probabilistic model was 99 min and by the

forecasted model was 907 min, which is 10 times as large as the time

given by the probabilistic model. The optimal operation of the probabilistic model in this case used two trucks, whereas the forecasted

model used one truck. In this way, the probabilistic model provides

the routing and scheduling planning to avoid delay at customers.

visiting order

Accumulation

of

travel times

BOX model

variation of car generation

4375 veh./day10%

What day?

TABLE 1

Model

Forecasted

model

11th day

VRP model

BOX model

Case A

6500 veh./day

(car generation)

BOX model

Case B

5450 veh./day

(car generation)

BOX model

Case C

4375 veh./day

(car generation)

Probabilistic

model

the environment

FIGURE 3

unit: yen/day

Costs

fixed cost

operation

early arrival

delay

total cost

fixed cost

change

operation

change

early arrival

change

delay

change

total cost

change

Case A

238,043

214,207

20,608

789,125

1,261,983

250,671

5.3

212,495

-0.8

22,764

10.5

601,797

-23.7

1,087,742

-13.8

Case B

238,043

197,634

22,496

507,169

965,342

250,671

5.3

195,822

-0.9

24,970

11.0

331,945

-34.5

803,423

-16.8

Case C

238,043

188,051

24,356

363,604

814,054

250,671

5.3

187,991

0.0

26,287

7.9

256,786

-29.4

721,748

-11.3

50

(10 Freight Carriers, Cases A, B, and C)

Model

Forecasted

model

Probabilistic

model

Type of vehicle

2 ton truck

4 ton truck

10 ton truck

total

2 ton truck

4 ton truck

10 ton truck

total

Number of vehicles

1

3

14

18

0

5

14

19

The table below shows the total time to spare after arriving at customers until the end of their time windows. The total time to spare

using the VRPTW-P model is 20.5% longer than that using VRPTWF model. The longer time to spare within the time window using the

probabilistic model allows drivers to avoid delays at customers in

case of increasing travel times due to unexpected traffic congestion.

This leads to the reduction of delay penalty as well as total costs. The

reason why the probabilistic model leads to longer time to spare is

that the delay penalty shown in Figure 1 is set much larger than the

early-arrival penalty. The specific value of the delay penalty for 2-,

4-, and 10-ton trucks was five times as large as the early arrival

penalty of a 4-ton truck. Therefore, trucks need to arrive earlier to

avoid the high delay penalty. On the other hand, when the forecasted

model is used, a single value of travel time is used instead of the

travel time distribution. No penalty is imposed for trucks unless they

arrive after the end of the time window. This can lead to optimal

routes in which trucks arrive very close to the end of time windows.

Total time to spare until the end of the time window (10 freight

carriers) is as follows:

Total time

to spare (min)

Forecasted model

Probabilistic model

Difference, %

19,469

23,452

20.5

Table 3 shows the total travel time. The total travel time using the

probabilistic model is slightly larger than that using the forecasted

model. The actual running time for both passenger cars and trucks

does not increase much, but the waiting time of trucks increases by

12% to 15%. This is due to the tendency of the probabilistic model

trucks (forecasted model, 10-ton truck).

trucks: (a) probabilistic model, the first 10-ton truck, and

(b) probabilistic model, the second 10-ton truck.

avoid delay penalties.

Table 4 shows the CO2 emissions estimated based on the solutions

obtained by both the forecasted and probabilistic models, which were

calculated based on the average running speed of trucks. The CO2

emissions of trucks decreased by about 6% using the probabilistic

model compared with the forecasted model, whereas the CO2 emissions produced by passenger cars remained almost at the same level

for both models. The reduction of CO2 emissions by trucks was

mainly due to 10-ton trucks. As shown in Table 3, the travel time of

10-ton trucks decreased using the VRPTW-P model, which contributed to a reduction in total CO2 emissions from trucks, because

the unit emission rate of 10-ton trucks is larger than for other small

trucks. This is the reason why a reduction of CO2 emissions by trucks

was achieved in spite of the increase of total travel time of trucks.

As shown in Table 4, the total CO2 emissions by passenger cars

and trucks decreased by 1% to 3% using the probabilistic model

compared with the forecasted model. Therefore, incorporating the

uncertainty of travel times using the probabilistic model not only

allows freight carriers to reduce their total costs but also improves

the environment in terms of reducing CO2 emissions.

A dynamic vehicle routing and scheduling model with real-time

travel-time information has also been recently developed (15). Preliminary results indicate that this model can lead to a significant reduction in operating costs, an increased level of service for customers, and

a decrease in the running time for trucks.

TABLE 3

Model

Forecasted

model

Running

time

Waiting

time

Probabilistic

model

Running

time

Waiting

time

Type of vehicle

passenger car

2 ton truck

4 ton truck

10 ton truck

subtotal of trucks

truck

Case A

66,497

65

499

3,398

3,962

957

Case B

49,001

40

447

3,111

3,598

1,049

Case C

36,134

39

417

2,964

3,419

1,139

total

71,416

53,648

40,693

passenger car

change (%)

2 ton truck

4 ton truck

10 ton truck

subtotal of trucks

change (%)

truck

change (%)

total

change (%)

68,198

2.6

0

932

3,125

4,057

2.4

1,093

14.2

73,348

2.7

49,082

0.2

0

813

2,856

3,670

2.0

1,208

15.2

53,960

0.6

36,111

-0.1

0

761

2,716

3,477

1.7

1,271

11.6

40,859

0.4

unit: minute/day

CONCLUSIONS

ITS provides many opportunities for reducing the social, environmental, and financial costs of goods distribution in urban areas. In

particular, automatic vehicle-identification systems, systems monitoring vehicle location, provide us with a very good data set of

variable travel times. Vehicle routing and scheduling procedures

incorporating these systems have good potential for being effective

city logistics initiatives.

This paper described a probabilistic vehicle routing and scheduling

model based on ITS. A reduction in the number of trucks, vehiclekilometers of travel, and operating costs can be achieved by using the

probabilistic vehicle routing and scheduling model. This would result

in substantial social, environmental, and financial benefits. Thus, the

probabilistic model is an effective city logistics initiative.

For putting this type of modeling to practical use, users need to collect historical data of travel times on each link of a network. Until

TABLE 4

CO 2 Emissions

Model

Forecasted

model

Probabilistic

model

Type of vehicle

passenger car

2 ton truck

4 ton truck

10 ton truck

subtotal of trucks

total

passenger car

change (%)

2 ton truck

4 ton truck

10 ton truck

subtotal of trucks

change (%)

total

change (%)

unit: kg-C/day

Case A

1686

2

19

789

809

2495

Case B

1313

1

18

745

764

2077

Case C

988

1

17

721

739

1727

1709

1.4

0

34

723

756

-6.5

2466

-1.2

1314

0.1

0

32

683

715

-6.4

2029

-2.3

987

0.0

0

31

662

693

-6.3

1680

-2.7

51

today sophisticated ITS allows us to obtain these data at low costs. For

practical use, a conventional assignment software package can take

place in the dynamic traffic simulation in the modeling procedure.

Doing so would make it possible to apply the model to a large-scale

network of an entire urban area.

Public sectors should play an important role in installing equipment for measuring variable travel times on roads and in providing

historical data sets to the logistics industry.

Some shippers and freight carriers are very interested in the

authors models, and the authors are undertaking a project to assess

the benefits of applying the models in practical cases with real travel

time data in the Osaka area of Japan. Once the benefits of using the

models are recognized in practical situations, shippers and freight

carriers will use them.

REFERENCES

1. Ruske, W. City LogisticsSolutions for Urban Commercial Transport

by Cooperative Operation Management. OECD Seminar on Advanced

Road Transport Technologies, Omiya, Japan, 1994.

2. Kohler, U. An Innovating Concept for City-Logistics. 4th World Congress

on Intelligent Transport Systems (CD-ROM), Berlin, 1997.

3. Taniguchi, E., and R. E. C. M. van der Heijden. An Evaluation

Methodology for City Logistics. Transport Reviews, Vol. 20, No. 1,

2000, pp. 6590.

4. Taniguchi, E., R. G. Thompson, T. Yamada, and R. van Duin. City

LogisticsNetwork Modelling and Intelligent Transport Systems.

Pergamon, Oxford, United Kingdom, 2001.

5. Taniguchi, E., R. G. Thompson, and T. Yamada. Recent Advances in

Modelling City Logistics. In City Logistics II (E. Taniguchi and R. G.

Thompson, eds.), Institute of Systems Science Research, Kyoto, Japan,

2001, pp. 333.

6. Taniguchi, E., R. G. Thompson, and T. Yamada. Modelling City Logistics. In City Logistics I (E. Taniguchi and R. G. Thompson, eds.), Institute

of Systems Science Research, Kyoto, Japan, 1999, pp. 338.

7. Fujii, S., Y. Iida, and T. Uchida. Dynamic Simulation to Evaluate

Vehicle Navigation. Proc., Vehicle Navigation & Information Systems

Conference, IEEE, 1994, pp. 239244.

8. Halatsis, A., I. Black, and M. Shinakis. Advanced Road Transport Electronic Management Information Systems: The ARTEMIS Project. Proc.,

7th ITS World Congress (CD-ROM), VERTICO, Turin, Italy, 2000.

9. Kurosaki, H., M. Yagi, and H. Yokosuka. Vehicle License Number

Recognition System for Measuring Travel Time. Journal of Robotics

and Mechatronics, Vol. 5, No. 2, 1993, pp. 192197.

10. Takahashi, Y., K. Ikenoue, K. Yasui, and Y. Kunikata. Travel-TimeInformation System (TTIS) in Mie Prefecture. Proc., 3rd World Congress on Intelligent Transport Systems (CD-ROM), ITS America,

Orlando, Fla., 1996.

11. Thangiah, S. R., K. E. Nygard, and P. L. Juell. GIDEON: A Genetic Algorithm System for Vehicle Routing with Time Windows. Proc., 7th IEEE

International Conference on Artificial Intelligence Applications, IEEE

Computer Society Press, Los Alamitos, Calif., 1991, pp. 322328.

12. Kokubugata, H., H. Itoyama, and H. Kawashima. Vehicle Routing

Methods for City Logistics Operations. IFAC/IFIP/IFORS Symposium

on Transportation Systems (M. Papageorgiou and A. Pouliezos, eds.),

Chania, Greece, 1997, pp. 755760.

13. Potvin, J. Y., T. Kervahut, B. L. Garcia, and J. M. Rousseau. The Vehicle

Routing Problem with Time Windows; Part I: Tabu Search. INFORMS

Journal on Computing, Vol. 8, 1996, pp. 158164.

14. Gendreau, M., G. Laporte, and J. Y. Potvin. Vehicle Routing: Modern

Heuristics. In Local Search in Combinatorial Optimization (E. Aarts and

J. K. Lenstra, eds.), John Wiley and Sons, New York, 1997, pp. 311336.

15. Taniguchi, E., T. Yamada, and M. Tamaishi. Dynamic Vehicle Routing and Scheduling with Real Time Information. In City Logistics II

(E. Taniguchi and R. G. Thompson, eds.), Institute of Systems Science

Research, Kyoto, Japan, 2001, pp. 111125.

Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Urban Freight Transportation.

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