International Journal of Forecasting 19 (2003) 525

www.elsevier.com / locate / ijforecast

Conducting a sales forecasting audit

Mark A. Moon*, John T. Mentzer, Carlo D. Smith
Department of Marketing, Logistics and Transportation, 301 Stokely Management Center, The University of Tennessee,
Knoxville, TN 37996 -0530, USA

Abstract
Continuous improvement in sales forecasting is a worthy goal for any organization. This paper describes a methodology for conducting a
sales forecasting audit, the goal of which is to help a company understand the status of its sales forecasting processes and identify ways to
improve those processes. The methodology described here has been developed over a 5-year period, involving multiple auditors, and has
been implemented (to date) at 16 organizations. This methodology revolves around three distinct phases: the as-is phase, in which the audit
team seeks to understand fully a companys current forecasting process; the should-be phase, in which the audit team presents a vision of
what world-class forecasting should look like at the audited company, and the way-forward phase, in which the audit team presents a
roadmap of how the company can change its forecasting processes to achieve world-class levels. Those companies that have responded
positively to the audit process have experienced significant improvement in their forecasting performance. The paper concludes by
presenting lessons from audits conducted to date, as well as implications for management practice and future research.
2002 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Forecasting practice; Audit; Forecasting management; Performance measurement; Forecasting systems; Supply chain

1. Introduction
Forecasting has been consistently recognized as an
important capability for business planning and management (Armstrong, 1987; Cox, 1987, 1989; Fildes
& Hastings, 1994; Makridakis & Wheelwright, 1977;
Mentzer & Gomes, 1994; Sanders & Manrodt, 1994;
Wright, 1988). Regardless of industry, or whether the
company is a manufacturer, wholesaler, retailer, or
service provider, effective demand forecasting helps
organizations identify market opportunities, enhance
channel relationships, increase customer satisfaction,
*Corresponding author. Tel.: 11-865-974-8062; fax: 11-865974-1932.
E-mail address: mmoon@utk.edu (M.A. Moon).

reduce inventory investment, eliminate product obsolescence, improve distribution operations, schedule
more efficient production, and anticipate future
financial and capital requirements (Galfond,
Ronayne, & Winkler, 1996; McIntyre, Archabal, &
Miller, 1993).
To improve forecasting, companies increasingly
take advantage of computer and information system
technologies. Point of sale (POS) data collection is
gathering near-real-time sales movement at a stock
keeping unit by location (SKUL) level of detail
(Smart, 1995). Electronic data interchange (EDI) is
used to transmit detailed sales information throughout various marketing channels to product distributors and manufacturers (Mentzer & Kahn,
1997). Forecasting systems that were once housed on

0169-2070 / 02 / $ see front matter 2002 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
PII: S0169-2070( 02 )00032-8

M. A. Moon et al. / International Journal of Forecasting 19 (2003) 525

large central mainframes are now capable of running

on desktop computers and in client server environments (Mentzer & Kahn, 1997; Mentzer & Schroeter, 1993, 1994; Mentzer & Kent, 1999). Legacy
systems, which have historically been limited to a
single forecasting technique for all products and
services, are being replaced by systems which select
from a series of alternative forecasting techniques or
employ a combination of techniques to analyze
demand and related information in an effort to
improve forecasting accuracy (Mentzer & Kahn,
1997; Mentzer & Schroeter, 1993, 1994; Mentzer &
Kent, 1999; Wright, 1988).
Yet, despite these advances, forecasting sophistication and performance have improved little at even
the more successful companies (Mentzer & Kahn,
1995). While forecasting research continues to pursue improvements in systems and techniques (Mentzer, 1988; Mentzer & Gomes, 1994; Smith,
McIntyre, & Achabal, 1994), recent studies and
reviews have identified gaps in our understanding of
the relationships between systems and techniques
used for forecasting, and the behavioral factors
associated with the management of forecasting in
organizations (Armstrong, 1987; Fildes & Hastings,
1994; Mentzer, Bienstock, & Kahn, 1999; Winklhofer, Diamantopoulos, & Witt, 1996). As Fildes
and Hastings (1994) summarized, most of that
research and almost all of the text books have
concentrated on only one aspect of the problem: how
to develop appropriate forecasting methods.
To focus some future forecasting research less on
methods and more on management practice, the
purpose of this paper is to describe a methodology
for conducting a sales forecasting audit that has been
tested in 16 companies to: (1) understand the current
status of their forecasting management practices (the
as-is state); (2) visualize the goals they should be
striving to reach in the various dimensions of
forecasting management (the should-be state), and
(3) develop a roadmap for achieving their goals (the
way-forward process). (At the time of acceptance
of this manuscript (August 2001), the following
companies had participated in the sales forecasting
audit research: Allied Signal, Avery Denison,
ConAgra, Corning, DuPont, Eastman Chemical,
Ethicon, Exxon, Hershey Foods USA, Lucent Technologies, Michelin North America, Motorola,

Pharmavite, Smith and Nephew, Union Pacific Railroad, and WilliamsonDickie.)

Section 2 of this paper discusses the relevant
research in forecasting management. In Section 3, a
standard against which companies can compare their
forecasting management practices is discussed. This
standard provides the basis of the sales forecasting
audit process, which is then discussed in detail.
Sections 4 and 5 discuss research and managerial
implications of this forecasting management research.

2. Forecasting management research

In a 1977 review of forecasting literature, Makridakis and Wheelwright presented three areas where
forecasting posed issues and challenges for management: (1) the range of alternative forecasting methods; (2) the selection of forecasting methods in
practice, and (3) organizational and behavioral factors affecting the forecasting environment. While
they recognized the need to continue research to
develop alternative forecasting techniques, they emphasized a need to focus more on the problemoriented or application side of forecasting (1977, p.
36). Such a focus, they indicated, would lead to a
stronger base on which management can effectively
use forecasting knowledge (1977, p. 36).
A considerable amount of subsequent forecasting
research has focused on the development and selection of forecasting methods. A review of research
published in a variety of business journalsincluding those in forecasting, marketing, logistics, operations management, and management scienceindicates a relatively limited number of efforts to answer
Makridakis and Wheelwrights (1977) call to incorporate more applications oriented and behavioral
research. Since the purpose of this paper is to focus
on forecasting management, the following discussion
will address this forecasting management research.
The few articles that discuss the area of forecasting system implementation and administration typically propose an implementation process and present
a case study to illustrate the process and describe
results. Examples of such studies include Armstrong
(1987), Schultz (1984), Closs, Oaks, and Wisdo
(1989), Fildes and Hastings (1994), Mentzer (1999),

M. A. Moon et al. / International Journal of Forecasting 19 (2003) 525

Mentzer and Kent (1999), and Mentzer and Schroeter (1994). These articles suggest that forecasting
implementation entails more than the application of
more accurate forecasting techniques and that effective forecasting management, as with effective system implementation, may lead to improved operating
and business performance.
Three exemplary articles from this stream of
research bear elaboration. The first (Armstrong,
1987) presented an idealized forecasting case study
and, from this case, derived 16 pitfalls in forecasting. From these pitfalls, Armstrong developed a
forecasting audit checklist for companies to review
their own management processes. This audit included the steps: (1) assess the methods without the
forecasts, (2) assess the assumptions and data used in
the forecast, (3) assess the uncertainty of the forecast, and (4) assess the costs of the forecast. Although not based upon an actual company, this paper
did establish the importance of auditing company
forecasting processes instead of just methods.
The second paper (Fildes & Hastings, 1994) drew
upon the organizational behavior and diffusion literature to develop a theoretical model of a marketing
forecasting system. From this model, a series of
theoretical statements were derived in the areas of
(1) the forecaster and the decision maker, (2)
information flows, and (3) technical characteristics
of the forecast. The authors then tested their theoretical statements in a case study of a company with 10
separate divisions and concluded that:
techniques and forecasting software should meet
the needs of the forecaster;
with limited time and technical expertise, implementation will also critically depend on the
database system and the supporting organization
design;
without accountability for forecast improvements
and adequate time and resources, little will happen; and
forecast improvement depends on organizational
design.
The importance of Fildes and Hastings (1994)
research to this paper is the establishment of a
theoretical basis from which to develop a model of

forecasting management, and the use of case companies to test the model.
In the third article, Schultz (1984) discussed
managerial issues surrounding the successful implementation of new forecasting models. He outlined
12 implementation profile factors which he summarized from his own and other forecasting management research. These factors include top management support, the relationship between forecast users
and model designers, goal congruence, implementation strategy and resources, and costbenefit justification. The importance of the Schultz (1984) paper
is its explicit recognition that even the best forecasting models will not affect overall corporate performance without attention to managing organizational change processes.
While these studies have provided valuable information and insight into forecasting management,
they have not offered a generalizable framework that
may be used as a prescriptive tool to improve
forecasting management. As Armstrong (1988)
pointed out, a key area where researchers have yet to
provide assistance to practitioners is in implementation. In other words, how can practising forecasters
take the knowledge that has been developed about
forecasting, and put it into action to improve forecasting in their particular organization? It is this
question that the remainder of this paper addresses.

3. Conducting a forecasting audit

The purpose of the research described here was
the development of a process by which companies
could review their sales forecasting processes and
practices to improve sales forecasting performance.
An important aspect of the process is its applicability
to organizations of different sizes, structures, and
industries. The findings presented in this section are
based on in-depth research conducted at 16 companies.

3.1. The role of auditing

An audit has been defined as a formal evaluation
of performance to predetermined standards and the
use of that evaluation to induce improved performance (Arter, 1989). While auditing is typically

M. A. Moon et al. / International Journal of Forecasting 19 (2003) 525

thought of in relation to preparation of financial

statements, other areas of business use auditing as a
way to arrive at an unbiased assessment of current
performance, as well as identify areas of needed
improvement. Examples include marketing audits
(Tybout & Hauser, 1981), sales management audits
(Churchill, Ford, & Walker, 1993), human resource
management audits (Hussey, 1995), and quality
audits (Dew, 1994).
One of the characteristics of a successful audit
emphasized by each of these authors is the unbiasedness of the auditors themselves. Each author encourages engagement of credible experts from outside the
organization to both collect and analyze the data.
There are three reasons for this. Firstly, outside
experts have knowledge of accepted standards
against which current management practice can be
compared. As Fildes and Ranyard (1997) point out,
external consultants have a wide knowledge of
business practices across a range of organizations, as
well as relevant knowledge of competitor operations.
They may also have specialist knowledge and skills
which few in-house groups can sustain (p. 339).
Secondly, individuals from outside the organization
have no incentive to overlook areas that might prove
sensitive or embarrassing to current management.
Thirdly, data collection, particularly when such data
collection involves interviews with individuals currently involved in a management process, can be
more successful when those collecting the data are
from outside the organization. Individuals tend to be
more willing to share their true experiences with
unbiased, outside experts, particularly with assurances of confidentiality. Or, as Fildes and Ranyard
(1997) point out, for an internal project or audit
team, confidentiality may be perceived as more
problematic compared to an external consultancy (p.
339).
As mentioned above, an audit can be seen as a
formal evaluation of performance to predetermined
standards. Thus, before a description of the sales
forecasting audit process can begin, we turn to a
discussion of relevant predetermined standards for
sales forecasting management.

3.2. Best practices in sales forecasting

management
Before practising forecasting managers can know

whether or not their organizations forecasting processes are good or bad, it is useful to have a standard
against which those processes can be compared.
Armstrong (1987) provided such a standard with his
16-point forecasting audit checklist. This checklist
was divided into the dimensions of forecasting
methods, assumptions and data, uncertainty, and
costs and benefits (see Table 1).
Fildes and Hastings (1994) utilized organizational
behavior and diffusion theory to present a normative
model of the Marketing Forecasting System. Based
upon this model, the authors suggested evaluating
the forecaster and the decision maker, information
flows, and the technical characteristics of the forecast
(see Table 1).
Mentzer et al. (1999) based their four-dimensional
framework on the work of Armstrong (1987), Fildes
and Hastings (1994), and Schultz (1984), and the
findings from a 15-year, three-phase research program in forecasting management. Phases one (Mentzer and Cox, 1984a) and two (Mentzer and Kahn,
1995) were based upon two large survey-based
quantitative analyses of sales forecasting practices.
Phase three involved a benchmark study of the
forecasting practices at 20 leading companies representing a variety of industries. Based on in-depth
analyses of company processes and documents, as
well as interviews with both users and developers of
forecasts, Mentzer et al. (1999) proposed that, in
order to adequately understand the overall management of the forecasting process in a company, that
process must be investigated along the following
four dimensions.
1. Functional integration, concerned with the role of
collaboration, communication, and coordination
of forecasting management with the other business functional areas of marketing, sales, finance,
production, and logistics.
2. Approach, concerned with which products and
services are forecast, the forecasting techniques
used, and the relationship between forecasting and
planning.
3. Systems, addressing the evaluation and selection
of hardware and software combinations to support
the sales forecasting function as well as the
integration of forecasting systems with other
planning and management systems in the organization.

Table 1
Forecasting management frameworks
Fildes and Hastings (1994)

Mentzer et al. (1999)

Forecasting methods
1.
Forecasting independent of top management?
2.
Forecast used objective methods?
3.
Structured techniques used to obtain judgments?
4.
Least expensive experts used?
5.
More than one method used to obtain forecasts?
6.
Users understand the forecasting methods?
7.
Forecasts free of judgmental revisions?
8.
Separate documents prepared for plans and forecasts?

The forecaster and the decision maker

1.
Forecasters managerial style
2.
Forecasters training
3.
Link between formal forecast and users decision

Functional integration
1.
Degree of communication, coordination, and
collaboration between forecasting group and
other functional areas
2.
Organizational location of the forecasting group
3.
Existence and form of consensus forecasting
meetings
4.
Recognition of forecasting needs of various
functional areas
5.
Accountability/performance rewards for personnel
involved in developing the forecasts

Assumptions and data

9.
Ample budget for analysis and presentation of data?
10.
Central data bank exists?
11.
Least expensive macroeconomic forecasts used?
Uncertainty
12.
13.
14.
15.

Upper and lower bounds provided?

Quantitative analysis of previous accuracy provided?
Forecasts prepared for alternative futures?
Arguments listed against each forecast?

Information flows
4.
Information flow from the environment
5.
Intraorganizational information flows and loss
of information
6.
IT support for information flows
Technical characteristics of the forecast
7.
Accuracy and bias
8.
Responsiveness and speed
9.
Uncertainty estimation

Approach
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.

Costs and benefits

16.
Amount spent on forecasting reasonable?

Systems
12.
13.

Relationship between forecasts and plans

Orientation of the forecasting approach (top-down
or bottom-up)
What is forecast in the supply chain?
Forecasting segmentation of products by importance
Use of quantitative and qualitative forecasting
techniques
Training in technique usage

Intracompany and supply chain electronic links

Information availability (reports and performance
metrics)
14.
Degree of systems knowledge in the organization
Performance measurement
15.
Measurement and use of accuracy
16.
Recognition of the impact of external factors on
accuracy
17.
Measurement and use of other performance measures
(costs and customer service)

M. A. Moon et al. / International Journal of Forecasting 19 (2003) 525

Armstrong (1987)

10

M. A. Moon et al. / International Journal of Forecasting 19 (2003) 525

4. Performance measurement, considering the metrics used to measure sales forecasting effectiveness and its impact on business operations.
In addition to identifying these four dimensions of
forecasting management, Mentzer et al. (1999) articulated four stages of effectiveness within each
dimension (see Figs. 14). Their article provided a
detailed description of the characteristics that can be
found at each of the four stages of effectiveness
within each of the four dimensions. From the Table 1
comparison of the Armstrong (1987), Fildes and
Hastings (1994), and Mentzer et al. (1999)

frameworks, we can make several observations.

Armstrong (1987) concentrated more on the methods
aspect of forecasting and, thus, provided more
evaluative detail on forecasting methods than the
other two frameworks. The Armstrong (1987) framework can be largely subsumed under the Fildes and
Hastings (1994) category of technical characteristics
of the forecast, and the Mentzer et al. (1999)
category of approach. The Fildes and Hastings
(1994) framework provides a more comprehensive
framework than Armstrong (1987), with many of the
same evaluative criteria as Mentzer et al. (1999): the
criteria under the forecaster and the decision maker

Fig. 1. Forecasting benchmark stages: functional integration.

M. A. Moon et al. / International Journal of Forecasting 19 (2003) 525

11

Fig. 2. Forecasting benchmark stages: approach.

correspond to similar criteria under functional integration; information flows correspond to both
functional integration and systems; and technical
characteristics of the forecast correspond to much in
the approach category.

Further analysis of these three studies reveals

certain key themes in sales forecasting management
(Table 2). Table 2 takes the numbers of the key
elements of each study articulated in Table 1 and
categorizes them under 24 exemplars of key themes.

12

M. A. Moon et al. / International Journal of Forecasting 19 (2003) 525

Fig. 3. Forecasting benchmark stages: systems.

These key sales forecasting management themes,

which run across all three studies, pay attention to:
the organization, information, technical issues, the
forecaster and users, and costs and benefits of
forecasting effectiveness.
Perhaps due to the benefit of the existence of the
Armstrong (1987) and Fildes and Hastings (1994)
frameworks and the fact that the Mentzer et al.
(1999) framework was based on the evaluation of a
broad set of companies, the Mentzer et al. (1999)
dimensions and stages appear to provide the most
detailed and comprehensive comparison standard.
However, several exemplars were addressed by
Armstrong (assumptions explicit, reasons for forecast
uncertainty explored, users knowledge, and resources available) and / or Fildes and Hastings

(reasons for forecast uncertainty explored, variables

forecast and lead time, and forecasters style) that are
not specifically addressed by Mentzer et al. (1999).
Since it was the purpose of this auditing research not
to refine any particular framework but rather to select
one that could be used as a standard against which
company processes could be compared, the combination of these 24 exemplars into one more comprehensive framework is left to future research.
Therefore, since the Mentzer et al. (1999) framework was the most comprehensive, it was adopted
for this study. Since the forecasting audit process
that we describe below adopted this framework, the
details of the stages in each of the Mentzer et al.
dimensions are reproduced here in Figs. 14. Rather
than directly reproduce the figures from the Mentzer

M. A. Moon et al. / International Journal of Forecasting 19 (2003) 525

13

Fig. 4. Forecasting benchmark stages: performance measurement.

et al. (1999) article, we have substituted actual

figures from four different forecasting audits as
exemplars of audit findings. Each of the four figures
is taken from a different audit. The bullet points in
bold, italic type represent the audit teams assessment of that particular companys status on that
particular dimension of forecasting management.
These bolded, italicized bullet points will be explained in more detail later in the paper.

3.3. The audit processdata collection

The audit process developed in this research was
used to assess practices and recommend actions to
improve forecasting management performance at 16
large and diverse organizations. Table 3 is provided
to show the diverse nature of the organizations that

have participated to date in the audit research. While

these organizations are diverse in terms of products
and services they offer, one important commonality
they all shared was a realization that their forecasting
practices were in need of improvement. Each of the
16 organizations agreed to participate because they
felt the audit could help them identify and rectify
fundamental problems with their forecasting practices. As a result, while it is impossible easily to
characterize the typical company that has participated in the audit research to date, one characterization is that, on each of the four dimensions of
forecasting management discussed above, the typical company is in stages one or two on all four
dimensions. It is in this way that this research
diverges from Mentzer et al. (1999). Where Mentzer
et al. developed their dimensions while investigating

M. A. Moon et al. / International Journal of Forecasting 19 (2003) 525

14

Table 2
Themes across sales forecasting management frameworks a
Themes

Exemplars

MBK

F&H

Armstrong

Organization

Communications
Coordination
Location
Interaction
Link to planning and
decisions

1
1
2
3
4, 5, 6

1, 8

From environmental
Within supply chain
Intra-organization
Availability
Information systems

12
8
12
13
14

Top-down / bottom-up
Techniques
Product segmentation
Assumptions explicit
Measurement of accuracy
Impact of external factors
Reasons for forecast
uncertainty explored
Variables forecast and
lead time

7
10
9

Information

Technical issues

The forecaster
and users

Costs and
benefits
a

Training
Incorporation of judgement
Forecasters style
Users knowledge
Resources available
Value (perceived and actual)
to organization

15
16

4
4
5
6

10

2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 11

7
9

15
13
14
12

11
10

2
1
6

17

9
16

The authors wish to thank Professor Robert Fildes for the original idea and guidance to develop this table.

companies possessing a wide range of forecasting

proficiency on each of the four dimensions, the
purpose of this research was to focus on companies
with a recognizable deficiency in one or more of the
dimensions. Our purpose was to see if these dimensions could serve as a diagnostic tool to help
companies improve their forecasting performance.
The process used to conduct a forecasting audit is
graphically depicted in Fig. 5. This process begins
with identification of the liaison person within the
company. Because the companies that agree to
participate in the audit research are companies that
recognize their own deficiencies, this individual is
the person who has been charged with initiating a
forecasting re-engineering effort. The liaison helps

coordinate the details of the audit, as well as choose

the individuals to be interviewed in the data collection phase.
The next step is an analysis of all relevant
documentation. Prior to on-site data collection, it is
useful for the audit team to become familiar with the
forecasting process as it is currently understood by
those responsible for forecasting. Thus, any written
documentation that describes information flows,
reports that are available to forecasters or users,
organization charts, hardware and software systems
descriptions and documentation, historical accuracy
figures and reports, and uses of the forecasts are
analyzed by the audit team.
Of the 16 companies that have been audited, there

M. A. Moon et al. / International Journal of Forecasting 19 (2003) 525

15

Table 3
Characteristics of audited companies
Company

Consumer?

Allied Signal
Avery Denison
ConAgra
Corning
DuPont
Eastman Chemical
Ethicon
Exxon
Hershey USA
Lucent Technologies
Michelin North America a
Motorola b
Pharmavite
Smith & Nephew
Union Pacific RR
WilliamsonDickie

X
X
X

Totals

8 (50%)

a
b

Business
to business?

Primarily
direct
sales?

X
X
X
X
X

X
X
X
X
X

X
X
X

X
X
X

X
X

X
X

X
X
X
X

Primarily
sales through
distributors?

X
X
X
X
X

10 (63%)

6 (38%)

12 (75%)

Michelins business is divided between OEM and replacement tire.

Motorolas business involved wireless and pager business to consumers and business customers.

has been considerable variance in the quality and

completeness of the documentation provided before
the on-site visit. At one extreme was a 5-inch-thick
binder containing an extremely comprehensive description of the current systemincluding detailed
descriptions of what happens during each month and
throughout the fiscal year of the forecasting processalong with hundreds of pages of reports that
can be generated on demand by the forecasting
system. At the other extreme was a photocopy of the
software manual for the forecasting system that was
installed, but never used, and no documentation of
processes.
In addition to receiving information from the
company being audited, the audit team provides a
detailed, eight-page interview protocol to the audit
sponsor. This protocol presents detailed questions on
the four dimensions suggested by Mentzer et al.
(1999), i.e. how forecasts are prepared, the systems
that are used to support forecasting, the techniques
that are employed, what (if any) approaches are
taken to measuring forecasting performance, and
how the forecasts are used. (Copies of the detailed
protocol are available on the web site, http: / / bus.ut-

k.edu / forecasting.) The sponsor typically provides

copies of this protocol to the interview participants to
help them prepare for their interviews. The protocol
is designed to help those who are to be interviewed
understand the type of information that the audit
team is trying to collect. It is never the case that any
single individual is able to answer all the questions
posed in the protocol. Rather, the protocol is meant
to guide the audit team through the entire data
collection process, and provide those interviewed
with guidance to reflect on issues in preparing for the
interviews. In other words, by the completion of the
on-site visit, the audit teams objective is to have
answers to all the various items in the protocol from
the combined interview responses.
Although it is the responsibility of the sponsor to
select the individuals to be interviewed, the audit
team should communicate the critical importance to
the success of the audit that an appropriate range of
individuals be included on the interview list. The
participant list needs to be both broad and deep.
Broad means adequate representation from all the
different functions in the company that are involved
in developing or using the sales forecasts. It is

16

M. A. Moon et al. / International Journal of Forecasting 19 (2003) 525

Fig. 5. Forecast audit data collection process.

important that at least three different groups are

represented: those who provide input to the sales
forecast (e.g. the sales and marketing organization),
those who actually prepare the sales forecast (i.e. the
sales forecasting group), and those who are customers of the sales forecast (e.g. purchasing, production
planning, logistics planning, and finance).
The participant list also needs to be deep in the
sense that it includes various levels of the organizational hierarchy. If only senior level managers are
interviewed, there is a danger they will have inadequate understanding of the detailed issues and
problems faced by the people who actually do the

work. At the same time, if only workers are

included, there is the danger interviews will become
little more than complaint sessions, and the audit
team may be left with an insufficient understanding
of the strategic issues surrounding the sales forecasting process. Therefore, it is up to the audit sponsor
carefully to select and schedule the right individuals
to participate in the interviews.
Following this preparation is the on-site visit,
conducted by a team of four auditors. The team of
four auditors splits into two sub-teams so that two
auditors are present for each interview, providing the
ability to assess inter-rater reliability, a crucial

M. A. Moon et al. / International Journal of Forecasting 19 (2003) 525

component of validity and reliability in interviewbased research (Armstrong, Gosling, & Weinman,
1997; Griggs, 1987; Hughes & Garrett, 1990;
Kurasaki, 2000). Each interview is audiotaped so any
differences in interpretation can be resolved at the
time of data analysis. Interviews typically include
one subject and two auditors, although occasionally
two or more subjects are present during a single
interview.
The interview typically begins with one member
of the audit team briefly describing the audits
purpose, giving assurances of confidentiality, and
obtaining permission to audiotape the conversation.
The auditors then ask the subject to describe his or
her role in the forecasting process. Probes include
questions such as what do you do with that information?, where do you obtain that information?, and is the information you obtain from that
source credible and complete? While a considerable
portion of the interview is spent gaining an understanding of the subjects formal role and responsibility with regard to the forecasts, the auditors also
probe to obtain insights as to the subjects satisfaction with the sales forecasts and the sales forecasting
process. Focus is placed on understanding any
frustrations or problems the subject has with the
forecasting process and his or her role in that
process. Each interview ends with a wish-list
question, where one of the auditors asks the subject
to describe what he or she would do to make the
forecasting process more effective. Interviews typically last 45 min to an hour.
At the 16 companies audited to date, the number
of interviews has ranged from 22 to 64, with an
average of 32 per company. Following completion of
the interviews, the auditors combine all interview
notes, then distribute those notes to all audit team
members. With data collection completed, data analysis begins.

3.4. The as-is status

The purpose of the sales forecasting audit is to
articulate for the audited company its as-is status, a
vision of its should-be position, and a description
of the way-forward process that will help the
company improve its sales forecasting practices. The
first step is for the research team to understand fully

17

the current status of the companys forecasting

practices (the as-is). As each member of the audit
team analyzes the data, two primary objectives are
foremost. Firstly, the companys position on each of
the four dimensions of sales forecasting managementfunctional integration, approach, systems, and
performance measurementis assessed. Each
member of the audit team identifies characteristics of
the company being audited, and compares those
characteristics to the bullet points in Figs. 14.
Initially, each research team member does this
work independently, and then all members meet to
compare the results of their analyses. When disagreements arise, the analysts talk through their reasons
for highlighting a particular bullet point on one of
the four dimensions, citing evidence from the documentation and / or the interview notes. If necessary,
the audiotapes of the interviews are replayed for
clarification, and consensus is reached. The results of
this process are a version of Figs. 14, with various
bullet points, or portions of bullet points, highlighted
to identify characteristics of the audited company on
each of the four dimensions of forecasting management. As mentioned previously, Figs. 14 give
actual examples from audits that have been conducted to date. Examination of these figures shows
how different bullet points have been highlighted,
identifying the as-is state of that particular company on each of the four dimensions.
It is important to note that during the analysis it is
common to identify characteristics consistent with
multiple stages of sophistication along a forecasting
dimension. For example, examination of Fig. 1
reveals that on the functional integration dimension, this particular company exhibited one world
class, stage four characteristicexistence of forecasting as a separate functional areawhile also
exhibiting several stage one and stage two characteristics. The insight revealed here is that while well
positioned organizationally to achieve a high level of
functional integration, lack of a forecasting champion (Mentzer, Moon, Kent, & Smith, 1997) has
prevented this company from taking advantage of
this organizational strength.
Similarly, Fig. 2 shows a company that, on the
approach dimension, has four stage one characteristics, three stage two characteristics, and one stage
three characteristic. In other words, some areas of the

18

M. A. Moon et al. / International Journal of Forecasting 19 (2003) 525

approach dimension have great opportunities for

improvement, other areas have lesser opportunities
for improvement, and still other areas on the approach dimension are managed quite well. As will
be discussed in the next section (the should-be
state), this articulation of characteristics at different
stages of sophistication helps a company identify and
prioritize areas where improvement can take place.
The audit process is not concerned with classifying
the company solely within a single discrete stage of
sophistication as much as understanding the relationships among the stage characteristics and the implications for improving performance.
The second objective of analyzing the interview
notes is to identify strategic themes that emerge
from the data. These strategic themes are issues that
cut across multiple dimensions of forecasting management, and which are so pervasive or which cause
such wide-ranging problems that they demand special attention and discussion. Following is a discussion of those strategic themes that emerged at a
majority of the companies.
Limited performance measurement and lack of
performance evaluation (12 of 16 companies)
while this characteristic is discussed at length in
the dimension on performance measurement, it
is such a pervasive characteristic that at most
companies it has warranted special discussion as a
strategic theme. One clear lesson learned as a
result of this research is companies do not seem
to measure adequately forecasting performance,
tie that forecasting performance to the evaluation
of individuals, and then reward individuals for
excellence in forecasting.
Blurred distinction between forecasts, plans, and
goals (11 of 16 companies)this is a situation
where a company does not recognize that forecasts are a projection into the future of expected
demand, given a stated set of environmental
conditions, while plans are managerial actions
proposed by the organization to capture and
supply as much of the forecasted demand as
possible (Mentzer & Bienstock, 1998). Evidence
of this theme can be found in these actual
statements from audits: we forecast up to plan,
or it would be suicide for me to forecast anything
different than the plan. Such statements indicate

these organizations are creating forecasts based

upon plans or sales targets, rather than their best
judgments about future customer demand.
Limited commitment to sales forecasting (10 of
16 companies)this theme was manifested by a
number of different situations at audited companies, including: insufficient commitment of
resources to training, documentation, systems
support, or reward and recognition programs;
relegating the forecasting function to relatively
low levels in the organizational hierarchy; unwillingness to designate a forecasting champion, and
lack of accountability throughout the organization
for forecast accuracy. At one company, this theme
was manifested by the failure to fill an open
director-level forecasting position for over a year.
Because of this lack of leadership, the companys
forecasting improvement efforts were unfocused
and unsupported by other constituent organizations in the company.
Islands of analysis (nine of 16 companies)this is
the situation where a company has non-standard,
non-interfacing systems or procedures for performing similar tasks, or forecasting systems that
fail to connect with other enterprise systems like
production planning or finance. These islands
can range from each forecasting analyst having
his or her own home-made spreadsheet with
unique characteristics and assumptions, to separate forecasting systems installed and operating in
different departments of the company, to the
manual transfer of data either into or out of a
forecasting system. An extreme example of this
phenomenon occurred at one audited company,
where three separate forecasting systems had been
installed over time: a mainframe-based legacy
system, which was the official forecasting system, an AS / 400-based system installed by production planning, and a PC-based system installed
by logistics. These latter two were described as
black market forecasting systems, and were
installed because the forecast user organizations
did not trust the integrity of the official forecast,
and so created their own forecasting systems.
From these two sources (dimensions and strategic
themes), the portrayal of the audited companys asis state of forecasting management practices is

M. A. Moon et al. / International Journal of Forecasting 19 (2003) 525

complete. The second stage of the audit process is

the description of the should-be state of sales
forecasting management practices for the company.

3.5. The should-be state

While understanding the current status of sales
forecasting management (the as-is state) is important, managers cannot take steps toward excellence without guidance on the directions to take. For
this reason, it is important to provide a clear picture
of the should-be state of forecasting management in
the company. This should-be picture can be found
in Figs. 14 in two different ways. The first is to
provide broad targets at which managers can aim.
Examination of stage four in each of the four
dimensions describes the most advanced level of
forecasting excellence uncovered in the sales forecasting benchmark research. Therefore, a best practices company would operate at stage four on all
four dimensions. Stage four characteristics provide
managers with a long-term target toward which they
can strive. However, since few companies have
achieved a level of excellence near stage four, it is
important that intermediate targets be set to move
toward stage four. If, for example, a companys
as-is status is primarily in stage one, then stage two
characteristics can be seen as intermediate targets
that will improve forecasting effectiveness, and
begin the company on the path to the excellence
found in stage four.
The second way that Figs. 14 provide the
should-be picture is in a more detailed, tactical
sense. Careful examination of Figs. 14 reveals that
for many of the bullet points found in each dimension, there is a natural progression from stage one
(low level of forecasting sophistication) to stage four
(high level of forecasting excellence). In Fig. 1, for
example, which describes the dimension of functional integration, the first bullet under stage one
describes a state where major disconnects exist
between marketing, finance, sales, production, logistics, and forecasting. For one company that found its
current as-is state described by this bullet, the
immediate should-be target was found in the first
bullet of stage two (coordination (formal meetings)
between marketing, finance, sales, production, logis-

19

tics, and forecasting). In this more detailed way, a

company can see where it should be going in each of
the four dimensions of forecasting.
Mentzer et al. (1999) asserted that stage four
targets in each of the dimensions provide a benchmark to which the company should ultimately strive,
while other, lower dimensions provide intermediate
targets. In addition to their benchmark, the benefits
of achieving a stage four level of sophistication
along each dimension receives support from research
in forecasting technique development and application, systems design and implementation, and management. The functional integration characteristics
of communication, coordination, and collaboration
reflect the benefits associated with team-based forecasting (Kahn & Mentzer, 1994), and are identified
as one of seven keys to better forecasting (Moon,
Mentzer, Smith, & Garver, 1998). Maintaining a
separate forecasting function is suggested as a means
to reduce bias and support forecast processes (Fildes
& Hastings, 1994). Providing forecasts in formats
that match the requirements of user functions helps
improve understanding and input (Mentzer & Bienstock, 1998; Marien, 1999; Fliedner, 2001; Mentzer
& Schroeter, 1994). Forecast development is also
viewed as a consensus building process, acknowledging the relationship between unconstrained market forecasts and the constraints associated with
operating capabilities or requirements (Fildes &
Hastings, 1994; Waddell & Sohal, 1994). Schultz
(1992) emphasizes the need for multidimensional
performance metrics noting that, we must go
beyond measures of accuracy and look to objective
performance measures such as sales, costs, and
profits (p. 410).
Reviewing characteristics associated with a stage
four level of approach, top down / bottom up forecast development has been identified as a means to
improve forecast performance over either approach
separately (Kahn, 1998; Fliedner, 2001). The need
for forecast reconciliation between sales and operations (Fildes & Hastings, 1994; Waddell & Sohal,
1994; Nelson, 1987), and an understanding of the
impact of sales force gaming (Galfond et al., 1996),
whether internally or from customers, are also proposed to impact forecast accuracy. Forecast education that goes beyond technique development (Mentzer & Cox, 1984b) and top management support

20

M. A. Moon et al. / International Journal of Forecasting 19 (2003) 525

(Miller, 1985; Schultz, 1984) are also recognized as

key elements of forecast success.
Characteristics associated with a stage four level
of sophistication along the systems dimension
reflect findings from case studies involving system
development and implementation (Mentzer &
Schroeter, 1993, 1994; Mentzer & Kent, 1999).
Mentzer and Kent (1999) outlined the development
and implementation of new processes and systems
that helped The Longaberger Company establish a
system-centric approach to forecast development.
Their discussion addressed the need for companies
considering forecasting systems to make the tool fit
the problem. Kahn and Mentzer (1996) discussed
the benefits of incorporating EDI as a means to
integrate supply chain demand information to improve data availability and accuracy, and subsequently reduce inventory costs. Their propositions are
supported by studies evaluating the impact of forecasting information availability on variability in the
supply chain (Chen, Drezner, Ryan, & Simchi-Levi,
1999). Chen et al. (1999) quantified the improvement in supply chain forecasting and inventory
performance resulting from a shift in information
availability from a decentralized to centralized
model.
Performance measurement characteristics were
supported by Fildes and Hastings (1994), who
recognized that environmental factors influence forecasting practices and performance. Calling on managers to make forecasting important and to measure,
measure, measure, Moon et al. (1998) emphasized
the need to implement measures of forecasting
performance based on accuracy and its impact on
operating performance.
While an understanding of the should-be state is
critically important to the continuous improvement
process, it is not very useful without an understanding of how to get to that should-be state. For that
reason, we now turn to the third purpose of the
forecast audit: the description of the way-forward.

3.6. The way-forward

The audit process provides the audited company
with a way-forward roadmap through a series of
concrete recommendations. While the recommendations are unique for each company, based on the

current status of their forecasting practices, these

recommendations usually fall into four categories.
Two of these categories, systems and performance
measurement, directly match the dimensions previously discussed. The other two categories, process
and training, are designed to help companies in both
functional integration and approach.
Process recommendations refer to the way forecasts are created and used. One company, for
example, was at stage one on the dimension of
functional integration, so process recommendations
included instituting a consensus forecasting process,
where different people from different parts of the
company work together in a forum characterized by
open information-sharing to create a consensus forecast. On the other hand, another companys forecasting practices were at stage one on the approach
dimension, and statistical tools were not used effectively to uncover patterns in historical demand data.
Thus, the process recommendations included implementation of a process where baseline forecasts
are generated statistically, then distributed to knowledgeable experts, such as sales or marketing people,
for adjustment.
Training recommendations refer to specific situations where company personnel who are involved in
forecasting have inadequate skills or knowledge to
perform their forecasting tasks effectively. For example, salespeople are usually in a position to provide
forecasting intelligence, but in only one of the 16
companies in our database did salespeople have any
training on why forecasting is important (functional
integration), or how to make qualitative adjustments
to baseline forecasts (approach). Thus, in almost all
companies that constitute the audit database, such
training programs targeted at problems in functional
integration and approach were recommended.
Similarly and surprisingly, in 13 of the audited
companies the people in the forecasting group had
received no training on how time series and regression analysis can be used to create baseline forecasts,
so training programs targeted at this deficiency in the
approach dimension were recommended.
System recommendations refer to the way computer and communication systems can be enhanced
to develop and communicate forecasting information
more effectively. For example, the as-is status of
one company showed forecasting systems were not

M. A. Moon et al. / International Journal of Forecasting 19 (2003) 525

closely integrated with other corporate systems, in

this case finance and MRP systems, resulting in
manual transfers of data. Therefore, the system
recommendations included creating electronic linkages that allow data transfers between systems. Also,
in several companies where island of analysis
existed, characterized by multiple processes or systems performing similar tasks, system recommendations included specific procedures designed to eliminate such islands and standardize on a single set of
forecasting processes.
Finally, performance measurement recommendations refer to specific metrics that should be put into
place to measure forecasting performance adequately. For example, in six companies the salespeople
were asked to make adjustments to baseline forecasts, but the accuracy of those adjustments was not
measured and communicated back to the salespeople.
This resulted in a recommendation that such a
measurement and feedback system be implemented.
Similarly, in the 13 companies that had implemented
some performance metrics, accuracy was the only
metric used. Thus, other metrics designed to assess
the impact of forecasting accuracy on overall supply
chain costs and customer service were recommended.
While recommendations have been included in
each of the 16 audits conducted to date, there has
been considerable variance observed in managements responses to these recommendations. Management reaction has typically fallen into one of
three categories, which we can characterize as either
address the problems, assign the blame, or why
should I care?. Companies that fall under the
address the problems category tend to have an
organizational culture oriented toward solutions,
regardless of which department is to blame. Companies in this category also tend to recognize that
responsibility for complex organizational problems
are usually shared across functions, and thus look for
cross-functional solutions. Companies in the assign
the blame category tend to have an organizational
culture oriented toward identifying the source of
organizational problems, and when that source is
identified, that department becomes responsible for
solutions. Since forecasting problems tend to be
cross-functional, it is usually impossible to identify a
single source of forecasting problems. Thus, com-

21

panies in this category tend to bog down in assigning

blame rather than in pursuing solutions. Companies
in the why should I care? category tend to view
forecasting as an unimportant activity. In these
companies, there is no understanding at the senior
management level of how forecasting improvements
can dramatically enhance the companys key performance indicators.
One company in particular provides an excellent
example of the address the problems response. This
organization, which was in stage one on all four
dimensions of forecasting management, responded
by assigning a cross-functional project team first to
perform a detailed review of the recommendations,
then propose a prioritization scheme, followed by an
action plan. Three months after the conclusion of the
audit, this project team met with the audit team to
review their proposed priorities and action plan, and
this was followed by a 2-year-long effort to reengineer their approach to sales forecasting. As a
result of that re-engineering effort, this company
now approaches stage four on all four dimensions of
forecasting management, and their supply chain costs
have been reduced dramatically. In fact, the company
estimates their entire implementation effort cost less
than $1 million, but the savings in raw material
purchasing costs alone (buying more on long-term
contracts based on accurate forecasts rather than
buying at the last minute on the spot market) during
1998 were in excess of $7 million. Thus, the return
on investment from implementation has been considerable. It is important to note that this $7 million
saving was seen by upper management as an accomplishment by all departments involved in the forecasting effort, not just purchasing.
Another company provides an example of the
assign the blame response. At this organization,
which was primarily at stages two and three on two
of the dimensions and stage one on the other two
dimensions, the auditors final presentation to senior
management degenerated into a heated discussion
between executives over which department was at
fault for the problems identified by the audit team.
While these executives agreed that problems existed,
none were willing to acknowledge that performance
improvements were needed in their individual departments. As a result, no consensus could be
reached on how to effect change, and no re-engineer-

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M. A. Moon et al. / International Journal of Forecasting 19 (2003) 525

ing effort was carried out. Over the next 18 months,

this company experienced considerable disruption
and customer service problems due to an inability to
forecast demand hitting their distribution centers.
Finally, at an audited company that exhibited the
why should I care? response, during the question
and answer portion of the final presentation to senior
management, the executive vice president of marketing rose from his chair and stated that all the
company really needed was a new killer product,
and with such a new product, all this attention to
forecasting improvement would not be necessary. At
another company, the CEO spent the time during the
final presentation to management doing other work
and gazing absently around the conference room. At
a third company, the audit team was told that since
they had moved to a just-in-time environment,
forecasting was no longer important. None of these
companies, to date, has made any changes in sales
forecasting management and, thus, has not realized
any of the supply chain cost savings and customer
service benefits achieved at the other companies.
Schultz (1984) cites a number of factors that
influence the success or failure of organizational
efforts to implement new forecasting models. One of
his findings is that the presence of top management
support is the top ranked predictor of implementation
success, and lack of top management support is the
top ranked predictor of implementation failure. In the
examples cited above, top management support was
clearly present in the address the problems response profile, and top management support was
clearly lacking in the assign the blame and why
should I care? responses. Obtaining such top management support is one of the key contributions from
a forecasting champion (Mentzer et al., 1997).
Consistent with Schultz, one of our conclusions from
this auditing research is that the existence of a sales
forecasting champion, along with the top management support for forecasting improvement such an
individual can obtain, is critical to long-term organizational success in sales forecasting management.
Other factors noted by Schultz (1984) that enhance the successful implementation of forecasting
models can also be considered in light of reactions to
forecast audit recommendations. For example,
Schultz cites performance, or the impact of a new

system on managers job performance. This factor is

consistent with the Mentzer et al. (1999) framework
that stage four companies provide performance rewards to all personnel involved in the forecasting
process. Similarly, Schultz (1984) mentions that goal
congruence positively affects implementation success, while Mentzer et al. (1999) encourage common
goal setting through communication, coordination,
and collaboration. Thus, while the Schultz paper
provides guidance for successful implementation of
new forecasting models, many of his points are also
consistent with those companies who have demonstrated a positive (address the problem) response to
forecast audit findings and recommendations.

4. Implications for practitioners

One important finding that emerged from this
research is the realization thatas with other types
of auditsan outside, unbiased analysis is critical to
the success of the audit. Several companies in the
study had attempted forecast process improvements
on their own, prior to the audit study, and reported
frustration with their inability to effect significant
organizational change. In these companies, the use of
external auditors was very helpful both in the
articulation of the companys true forecasting process and in inspiring management action. Individuals
who are directly affected by a companys forecasting
processes will share their experiences and frustrations more freely with external auditors whom they
perceive to be unburdened with preconceived ideas
and free from any political agendas. This perspective
helps to uncover elements of the forecasting process
that may not be evident to those who are involved in
the process day-to-day. This research reinforces
Armstrongs (1988) call for the value of sales
forecasting auditing. Academics and practitioners
should develop the skills and knowledge base necessary to conduct such sales forecasting management
audits.
The positive results companies obtained from the
sales forecasting audits conducted to date provide
encouragement for other companies to follow suit.
The example provided earlier of one company

M. A. Moon et al. / International Journal of Forecasting 19 (2003) 525

realizing substantial savings in purchasing costs

during the first year as a result of more accurate and
credible forecasts provides an exemplar. Dramatic
savings in supply chain costs are typical when the
audit recommendations are fully implemented.
From the 16 companies that constitute the database for development of the sales forecasting audit
process, there are a number of lessons from which all
managers can benefit. Firstly, it is clear from this
research that forecasting is a distinct and critical
management function, and not just an exercise in
technique or software selection. Technique development and selection have been the focus of much
research, and this literature has made an enormous
contribution to improving sales forecasting accuracy.
However, this audit research has demonstrated that
companies must look beyond techniques and software, and must pay close attention to overall management of the sales forecasting process.
A further lesson this sales forecasting audit research can provide managers is that the four dimensions of forecasting management articulated in Mentzer et al. (1999) are a useful diagnostic and prescriptive framework to affect sales forecasting improvement. A significant portion of the audit methodology described here makes use of this framework,
and it has been very helpful for characterizing a
companys current forecasting management status, as
well as showing managers the should-be state to
which they can aspire.
Finally, the benchmarking phases of as-is,
should-be, and way-forward developed by managers involved in this auditing research are an excellent way to examine the process of continuous
improvement in sales forecasting management.
These three phases have provided managers with a
clear, concise way to think about the process of
continuous improvement, not only in sales forecasting, but also in other business functions and processes. Without both a clear understanding of how a
company currently operates (the as-is), and a vision
of what world-class really is (the should-be),
changes to core processes (the way-forward) will
be unfocused and ineffective. Further development,
explication, and exploration of the characteristics and
nature of these three phases are left to future
forecasting research.

23

5. Implications for future research

The process and framework described in this
article address an important area of forecasting
research called for by Armstrong, Brodie, and
McIntyre (1987), and followed by Armstrong (1987,
1988) and Fildes and Hastings (1994). It offers a
foundation to direct future investigations of forecasting best practices and how the audit described may
be used to help organizations improve forecasting.
Figs. 14 offer a framework of benchmark criteria
based on an original in-depth study of 20 leading
companies. The criteria were validated and the audit
process developed as a result of subsequent studies
with 16 additional organizations. It is important that
researchers continue to evaluate and improve upon
the criteria and process presented. The experience
and perspectives of others who use the criteria and
process in research settings can help to establish a
richer understanding of its applicability in different
industry and organizational environments, and under
different operating conditions. By expanding the
diversity of conditions under which the audit process
is tested, researchers will be able to assess better the
generalizability of the current criteria and process,
and identify areas for improvement. Research may
identify circumstances where characteristics presented in the benchmark criteria of Figs. 14 cannot
be assessed or do not have an impact on forecasting
performance. There may also be new criteria which
can be added to one or more of the four dimensions
of forecasting that will help lead to improved
performance. In particular, the exemplars of Armstrong (1987) and Fildes and Hastings (1994) that
are presented in Table 2 but not included in the
Mentzer et al. (1999) framework should be considered for incorporation into future sales forecasting
management audit research. The ultimate goal of this
research program should be to develop quantitative
measures of the attributes articulated in Figs. 14.
We encourage other researchers to adapt and utilize
this audit methodology and report the results in
future research.
Future research must also investigate ways to
quantify better the impact of changes in sales
forecasting practices. As noted by Schultz (1992), to
determine if an organization is better off having

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M. A. Moon et al. / International Journal of Forecasting 19 (2003) 525

implemented a new forecasting technique, we must

go beyond measures of accuracy and look to objective performance measures such as sales, costs, and
profits (p. 410). To do so, forecasting research must
investigate the attitudes and behaviors that influence
the implementation of forecasts in practice. By
understanding the relationship between the four
dimensions of forecasting management and their
impact on the application of forecasts, organizations
will be able to apply cost / benefit analysis when
determining the most effective allocation of resources to forecasting.

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Biographies: Mark A. MOON is an Associate Professor at the
University of Tennessee, Knoxville. He earned his BA and MBA
from the University of Michigan, and his Ph.D. from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Dr. Moons professional
experience includes positions in sales and marketing with IBM
and Xerox. He has published in the Journal of Personal Selling
and Sales Management, Business Horizons, Journal of Business
Forecasting, Industrial Marketing Management, Journal of Marketing Education, Marketing Education Review, and several
national conference proceedings. Dr. Moon also serves on the
editorial review board of the Journal of Personal Selling and
Sales Management.
John T. (Tom) MENTZER is the Harry J. and Vivienne R.
Bruce Excellence Chair of Business Policy in the Department of
Marketing, Logistics and Transportation at the University of
Tennessee. He has published more than 140 articles and papers in
the Journal of Forecasting, Journal of Business Logistics, Journal
of Marketing, Journal of Business Research, International Journal of Physical Distribution and Logistics Management, Transportation and Logistics Review, Transportation Journal, Journal
of the Academy of Marketing Science, Columbia Journal of World
Business, Industrial Marketing Management, Research in Marketing, Business Horizons, and other journals.
Carlo D. SMITH is an Associate Professor of Marketing at the
University of San Diego. He holds a BS and MBA in logistics
management from the Pennsylvania State University and received
his Ph.D. in logistics and marketing from the University of
Tennessee. His articles have appeared in the Journal of Business
Logistics, Journal of Business Forecasting, Business Horizons,
and the Journal of Consumer Satisfaction, Dissatisfaction and
Complaining Behavior. Before attending to doctoral studies, he
spent 12 years in industry as a logistics consultant, executive
educator, and corporate logistics manager.