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A Plan to produce within 15 years 50% of Israel required energy

by solar energy (Eilat, February 2010)
Dov Raviv
MST-Revolutionizing Energy
Abstract
A price reduction to the level of $2000/kw is shown to be possible using the Concentration PV (CPV) technology.
This is made possible by using the state of the art existing components such as the multijunction 45 % solar cell and
other modern technologies, coupled with erection of automatic production lines requiring large investments. This
decrease in cost will allow, with a $26B credit line level, to build the entire solar energy and storage batteries
production facilities for the power required to supply 50% of the electricity needs of Israel, over a period of 15 years.
The detailed presentation of the financial strategies to allow a complete and continuous erection of the solar energy
infrastructure proves unequivocally that the CPV solar technology has the potential to largely substitute the use of
fossil energy within the next 15 years, wherever such substitution is feasible and practical. The implementation of
such strategy is a Paradigm change in strategy from the BOTTOM-UP approach to the TOP-DOWN approach.

Introduction efficiency. Thus, any increase in the efficiency of the cells

The aim of MST is to reduce the cost of a CPV power is immediately applicable to the next plant to be delivered
plant to $2,000/KWp to enable the implementation of a from the production line. Thus, the plant upgrade is open
national plan to reach energy independence of Israel. ended by design to such improvement.
The lowest market price for large solar plants today is
$5000/KWp. This price is by no means compatible
with the Israeli or world price requirements to build
utility size plants.
MST has devised a way to reduce the cost of solar
power plants to lower than $2,000/KWp.
At that price the solar option is the major contender to
substitute the fossil fuel plants in Israel and supply the
future demand growth.
We shall show also, that the solar power is the only
renewable technology that is open-ended to efficiency
Figure 1: MST tracker installed in Arad
improvements and thus to higher productivity, lower
The major cost reduction factor from the present sky
investment cost and reduction of land requirements.
rocketing prices is the erection of an automatic
It is therefore the natural contender to be deployed in
production line having a production capacity of
Israel and elsewhere to replace the fossil power plants.
>1000MWp per year. At this production rate, the
The major roadblock to massive inroad of this
erection cost of a 1000MWp solar plant will be
technology is the level of investment required.
decreased nominally to $2,000M.
We shall present an affordable financial approach
To produce 50% of Israel energy within 15 years we
suitable to perform such reconfiguration of the entire
need to install 20,000MW during 10 years, namely
Israeli electrical economy.
2000MW/year. We take into account energy supply
during day only, thus storage is not required for night
Cost reduction power supply.
MST has come to the conclusion that the technological
The reason that such a reduced price can be achieved,
configuration that bears the greatest cost reduction
lies in the nature of the product. The Fresnel Lens light
potential is concentrators' system by Fresnel lenses using
concentrator and the Multi Junction (MJ) solar cell
multi-junction solar cells. The technology is mature and
constitute the basic power element of the plant. Thus,
the efficiency increase is related solely to the cells
the plant constitutes actually of solar cells, glass, metal
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sheet and steel elements that lend themselves to large
series low cost production. Storage Plant
When the solar plants power becomes a significant

1000MWp Plant data portion of the entire electric grid power (more than
5%), one can't disregard its influence on the grid
Number of collectors 20,000
Collector dimensions 20mx12m stability, and the energy supplied must respect
Area of collector 240 msq
standards of utility power plants. This is not possible
Collector power 50 KWp
Plant aperture 4 kmsq for large solar plants because of the inherent
Real estate covered 10 kmsq
fluctuating power delivered by the sun. Thus, a storage
Energy production in Israel 2 B KWh
@2394 KWh/msq/year facility is required to ensure steady state power
Energetic Concentration 500 suns
delivery to the grid.
Two axis tracking mount
The energy sources (solar plant, baseload and storage)
Advantage of CPV System must generate and supply the entire energy demand
The CPV system has the following advantages:
during day and night.
1. The land required is 100KW per 1000msq
As the solar plant capacity is built up along the years, it
2. The land can have slopes up to 10%
will start delivering energy during the day only. This is
3. The land can be rocky
the case we are dealing with. After the production
4. The land can have dual use
capacity increases beyond the day consumption, excess
5. The CAPEX is less than $0.5/KW (a 2000MW/y
power is stored in the batteries and delivered during
production line will cost less than $1,000M)
night. During the day, the storage plant is used to keep
The issue of land availability is of major importance
a continuous supply of energy to the grid during
for large systems in general, and more specifically for
intermittent cloudy periods.
Israel.
The storage process is reversible and the cycle loss
The CPV system uses half the land required by other
(charge – discharge) is reasonable (75% efficiency).
technologies. The first four attributes supports this
The storage plant capacity is built in parallel with the
statement
solar plant capacity. This is the place to state that ANY
PV or CPV plants with an installed capacity in excess
Project Status
MST has completed in August 2009 the development of of 5-10% of the grid power needs a storage capacity

a 50KWp tracker that is installed in Arad and supplying identical to their capacity to protect against grid

electricity to the grid. See Figure 1. The measured collapse in case of power loss due to clouds.

efficiency of the tracker in the sun is 24.5%.

We have ordered from Kuka (a German world leading The storage batteries are developed by EnStorage in

company) a preliminary design of a highly automated Israel and will be produced and supplied by them in

1500MWp production line. This design and the proposal cooperation with MST. The estimated production cost

from subcontractors are at the basis of the cost estimate of the storage batteries is $650/KW within 6 years.

of the product and of the production line.

For the time being we are planning the erection of a Amount of yearly collected energy
According to daily actual direct radiation data collected
75MW/year production line that will be ready and
at Sdeh-Boker (2394 KWh/msq/year in 2002) by Prof.
producing in December 2010.
Faiman from the National Solar Energy Center of the
We have therefore full confidence in our possibility to
Ben-Gurion University in Sdeh Boker, an entire year
build a 2000MW/year production line and a product at a
daily simulation of solar plant collection has been made.
cost below $2000KWp, turnkey plant.
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For a two axis tracking plant of 1000MWp, the 2002 The storage plants will support the fossil capacity by
yearly collected energy is 2.0 Billion kwh. allowing charging during low production periods and
supporting the grid in periods of peak demand. This is
Projected revenues in Israel a major benefit to the grid, and it will allow using the
The tariff adopted for the proposed project is depicted
storage batteries instead of installing new fossil plants,
in Figure 2.
provided the fossil plants produce the energy needed.
The feasibility of this tariff is justified by the increase in
electricity price to the consumer as shown in Figure 7.
The implementation
The scheme of achieving this goal is as follows
Tariff $/kwh
0.25 Build a CPV solar plants production capacity of
0.20 2000MWp per year and a storage batteries production

0.15
capacity of 2000MW per year.
We assume that the production lines will be completed
0.10

after 3 years and we start producing at year 4.

0.05
The planned yearly installed capacity of solar and
0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
storage is depicted in Figure 3.
Tariff Years after start
Yearly installed capacity MW
Figure 2: Tariff over a 20 years period 2500

2000

The aim of the program 1500

The grid installed capacity is 11,000MW based on

1000

fossil production of 75% coal. Israel's intention is to

500
transform within 10 years the fossil mix and produce
0
60% energy by burning gas. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

CPV solar plants Storage plants Years after start

The annual energy production in 2007 was 50 Billion
kwh. The projected increase in electrical energy Figure 3: Yearly installed capacity

demand is doubling the power and energy within 30 The year 4 we install 1000MWp and 1000MW storage

years (compound increase of 2.42% per annum). and thereafter 2000MW per year of each, during an

Our aim is to produce within 15 years solar energy additional period of 10 years.

electricity that constitutes 50% of the energy required The reason that the amount of storage is identical to the

by the grid, namely 40Bkwh, during the day only. This amount of solar is that the storage must provide full

means that we have to install within 15 years instantaneous backup to the solar power.

20,000MW of solar plants.

We have consulted with Shai Agassi (Better Place) Figure 4 depicts the accumulated installed solar power

who plans to transform the private car vehicles into and storage, compared with the projected grid power

electrical, about the amount of energy his project required.

requires. He needs 6 Bkwh yearly. This requirement is

well within the uncertainty band of the projection and
we did not update the requirement. This will happen
along the road anyway.
In any case, the fossil installed capacity should remain
in stand-by in case no solar energy is available.
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Accumulated installed capacity MW Funding required
25000 The funding required includes the investment required
to build the production lines, to build and deploy the
20000

solar and solar and storage plants, to operate and

15000
maintain those plants and the G&A., less the income
10000 from electricity sale to the grid.
Figure 6 depicts the resultant cash in hand before tax.
5000

A negative figure means we need credit.

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

CPV solar plants Storage plants Grid capacity Years after start
Cash in hand accumulated M$
Credit Line required
Figure 4: Accumulated installed solar power and storage 10000

Figure 5 depicts the required energy and the solar 5000

0
produced energy.
-5000

Required and produced energy Mkwh

M$
-10000
90000
-15000
80000

70000
-20000

60000 -25000

50000 -30000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
40000
Years after start
30000

20000

10000
Figure 6: Cash status before Tax, 0% interest.
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
The maximum exposure with no interest is at years 10
Solar produced energy Grid required energy Years after start
to 14 at a level of $25B. The credit line is zero at year
Figure 4: Solar Energy produced and required 18.
Produced energy as % of required
60%

Repercussion on IEC tariff

50%

40%
In order to cover the increased tariff required by the

30%
solar energy (See Figure 2), the tariff of IEC must be

20%
increased.

10%
The calculation of the new tariff took into account the

0%
additional cost of solar energy ($0.2/kwh instead of
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Produced energy as % of required Years after start

$0.12/kwh) divided by the total energy produced.

Figure 5: Solar Energy produced as % of required Figure 7 depicts the IEC tariff to achieve this.
One can see that during 17 years the tariff increase is

Figures 4 and 5 depict the result of the installation rate from $0.12/kwh to $0.16/kwh. The blue tariff is the

defined in Figure 3. One can see that after 14 years in projected tariff increase for fossil electricity production

2023, we supply 50% of the required energy at that of 2% per year. One can see that the required tariff to

time. support the renewable scenario is less than the

During 6 additional years, without additional projected tariff escalation. After year 17 the tariff drops

installations, the amount of produced energy exceeds from $0.16kwh to $0.135/kw$.

50%.
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Tariff required to cover solar energy cost $/kwh
Funding. Solar energy infrastructure is funding
Basic present tariff $0.12/kwh
0.20
intensive. As we have shown, a credit line of about
0.18 $25B is required to execute the proposed plan. The
0.16

0.14 approach that such plan can be carried out by private

0.12
investment is illusory. The Government has approved a
$/kwh

0.10

0.08 plan of installing 400MW/year in average over a

0.06

0.04 period of 10 years (total 4000MW). This represents

0.02

0.00
20% of the required installation rate required by this
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Tariff to support solar price Business as usual 2%/year increase

plan, and there is no Israeli technology involved. Even
Years after start

if the plan is successful we lost 10 years and

Figure 7: Solar tariff required compared to IEC
accomplished a mere 10% of the installed power
projected tariff
required. We live on borrowed time and there is no
time for financial experimentation. Energy is an
Job creation essential element of our existence as a state, and its non
Figure 8 depicts the projected number of jobs created availability is an existential threat to Israel. I dare
over a period of 30 years. saying that this threat is more acute than the defense,
Jobs created because its time constant is longer and one can not
16,000
close the gap even with infinite amounts of money. The
14,000

12,000 timely planning to solve the problem is a main

10,000
characteristic of the problem.
8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Total Production Maintenance Others Years after start

Figure 8: Direct Jobs created

After 5 years 9,000 jobs are created
After 10 years 12,000 jobs are created
After 13 years 15,000 jobs are created

It is estimated that the number of jobs created are

double if we take into account indirect activity.

Hurdles to overcome
Land. A 1000 MWp CPV solar plant requires 10 kmsq
(10,000 dunam) of land. 20,000MWp require 200
kmsq of land. This figure represents 1% of Israel area
or 1.6% of the Negev area.
Land exists and must be provided in a timely manner to
allow building this project. Regulatory bureaucratic
issues must be solved in a timely manner.
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Summary and conclusions The project will handsomely reward the Country and
the People by providing freedom of energy supply,
The Energy is a major issue to ensure Israel's long term
saving on foreign currency expense and providing tens
existence.
of thousands of new jobs mainly in the Negev
The world projected Energy crisis threatens Israel
This industry will develop into a major Export one.
within a 30 years timeframe.
The sun is the only energy resource of Israel.
The CPV system developed by MST in Israel has the
The solution is there and The Government
technical and financial attributes to solve this problem. must only stand up to the challenge.
The Government should adopt this project as a It is its duty to do so.
National Infrastructure project, facilitate its funding
and allocate it the adequate National priorities.