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Consider the following statistical experiment. You flip a coin 2 times and count the
number of times the coin lands on heads. This is a binomial experiment because:
Notation
Suppose we flip a coin two times and count the number of heads (successes). The
binomial random variable is the number of heads, which can take on values of 0, 1, or 2.
1. A trial is repeated 'n' times where n is finite and all 'n' trials are identical.
2. Each trial (or you can call it an event) results in only two mutually exclusive,
exhaustive but not necessarily equally likely possibilities, success or failure.
3. The probability of a "success" outcome is equal to some percentage which is
identified as proportion, p (or p)
4. This proportion p (or p), remains constant throughout all events (or trials). It is
defined as the ratio of the number of successes to the number of trials.
5. The events (or trials) are independent.
6. If probability of success is p or p, then the probability of failures is 1 - p or 1 - p
this is denoted by q. Thus p + q = 1.
Binomial Probability
The binomial probability refers to the probability that a binomial experiment results in
exactly x successes. For example, in the above table, we see that the binomial probability
of getting exactly one head in two coin flips is 0.50.
Given x, n, and P, we can compute the binomial probability based on the following
formula:
The Binomial Distribution is one of the discrete probability distribution. It is used when
there are exactly two mutually exclusive outcomes of a trial. These outcomes are
appropriately labeled Success and Failure. The Binomial Distribution is used to obtain
the probability of observing r successes in n trials, with the probability of success on a
single trial denoted by p.
Example: Suppose a die is tossed 5 times. What is the probability of getting exactly 2
fours?
Solution: This is a binomial experiment in which the number of trials is equal to 5, the
number of successes is equal to 2, and the probability of success on a single trial is 1/6 or
about 0.167. Therefore, the binomial probability is:
A cumulative binomial probability refers to the probability that the binomial random
variable falls within a specified range (e.g., is greater than or equal to a stated lower limit
and less than or equal to a stated upper limit).
Example: What is the probability of obtaining 45 or fewer heads in 100 tosses of a coin?
b(x < 45; 100, 0.5) = b(x = 0; 100, 0.5) + b(x = 1; 100, 0.5) + . . . + b(x = 45; 100, 0.5)
b(x < 45; 100, 0.5) = 0.184
Example: Toss a coin for 12 times. What is the probability of getting exactly 7 heads.
Step 1: Here,
Number of trials n = 12
Number of success r = 7 (since we define getting a head as success)
Probability of success on any single trial p = 0.5
, where
.
The latter expression is known as the binomial coefficient, stated as "n choose k," or the
number of possible ways to choose k "successes" from n observations. For example, the
number of ways to achieve 2 heads in a set of four tosses is "4 choose 2", or 4!/2!2! =
(4*3)/(2*1) = 6. The possibilities are {HHTT, HTHT, HTTH, TTHH, THHT, THTH},
where "H" represents a head and "T" represents a tail. The binomial coefficient multiplies
the probability of one of these possibilities (which is (1/2)²(1/2)² = 1/16 for a fair coin) by
the number of ways the outcome may be achieved, for a total probability of 6/16.
For obtaining coefficients from the binomial expansion, the following rules may be
remembered. To find the terms of the expansion of (q + p)n
Pascal's triangle:
0: 1
1: 1 1
2: 1 2 1
3: 1 3 3 1
4: 1 4 6 4 1
5: 1 5 10 10 5 1
6: 1 6 15 20 15 6 1
7: 1 7 21 35 35 21 7 1
8: 1 8 28 56 70 56 28 8 1
Row number n contains the numbers for k = 0,…,n. It is constructed by starting with
ones at the outside and then always adding two adjacent numbers and writing the sum
directly underneath. This method allows the quick calculation of binomial coefficients
without the need for fractions or multiplications. For instance, by looking at row number
5 of the triangle, one can quickly read off that
The binomial distribution for a random variable X with parameters n and p represents the
sum of n independent variables Z which may assume the values 0 or 1. If the probability
that each Z variable assumes the value 1 is equal to p, then the mean of each variable is
equal to 1*p + 0*(1-p) = p, and the variance is equal to p(1-p). By the addition properties
for independent random variables, the mean and variance of the binomial distribution are
equal to the sum of the means and variances of the n independent Z variables, so
These definitions are intuitively logical. Imagine, for example, 8 flips of a coin. If the
coin is fair, then p = 0.5. One would expect the mean number of heads to be half the
flips, or np = 8*0.5 = 4. The variance is equal to np(1-p) = 8*0.5*0.5 = 2.
1. If x denotes the Binomial variate, expression of x i.e. the mean of the distribution
is given by,
2. The standard deviation of the Binomial distribution is determined by,
Example For a Binomial distribution, mean is 2 and standard deviation is 1. Find all the
constants of the distribution.
Solution :
We have p = 0.4, n = 1000 and q = 1 - p = 1 - 0.4 = 0.6
Mean (µ ) = np = 1000 × 0.2 = 200
Solution : We have N = 100 sets. n = 10 trials in each set p = 0.5 and q = 1 - p =0.5
Probability (getting at least 7 heads) in one set
= p (x = 7) + p (x = 8) + p (x = 9) + p (x = 10)
Therefore in 100 sets = N p (r) = 100 × (0.171) ≅ 17 times you can expect to
get at least 7 heads.
Example :Six dice are thrown 729 times. How many times do you expect at least three
dice to show 5 or 6?
q = 1 - p = 1- 1/3 = 2/3
n = 6 and r = 3
p (x = r) = 1 - [p (x = 0) + p (x = 1) + p (x = 2)]
Example: If the probability of success is How many trials are required in order that
Let 'n' be the required number of trials to get the probability of at least one success which
is,
Example: A and B play a game in which A’s chance of winning is 2/9. In a series of 8
games, what is the chance that A will win at least 9 games ?
Solution : Here A’s chance of winning = p = 2/9
Solution :
Example: The probability of a man hitting a target is 1/3. How many
must he fire so that the probability of hitting the target, at least once,
is more than 90% ?
Therefore, he must fire at least 6 times so that the probability of hitting the target at least
once is more than 90%
Example: The probability that a man aged 60 will live to be 70 is 0.65.
What is the probability that out of 10 men, now 60, at least 7 will live
to be 70?
∴ q = 1 - P = 1 - 0.65 = 0.35
Number of men ( n ) = 10
= P ( 7 or 8 or 9 or 10 )
Consider the following statistical experiment. You flip a coin repeatedly and count the
number of times the coin lands on heads. You continue flipping the coin until it has
landed 5 times on heads. This is a negative binomial experiment because:
The experiment consists of repeated trials. We flip a coin repeatedly until it has
landed 5 times on heads.
Each trial can result in just two possible outcomes - heads or tails.
The probability of success is constant - 0.5 on every trial.
The trials are independent; that is, getting heads on one trial does not affect
whether we get heads on other trials.
The experiment continues until a fixed number of successes have occurred; in this
case, 5 heads.
Notation
The following notation is helpful, when we talk about negative binomial probability.
Suppose we flip a coin repeatedly and count the number of heads (successes). If we
continue flipping the coin until it has landed 2 times on heads, we are conducting a
negative binomial experiment. The negative binomial random variable is the number of
coin flips required to achieve 2 heads. In this example, the number of coin flips is a
random variable that can take on any integer value between 2 and plus infinity. The
negative binomial probability distribution for this example is presented below.
The negative binomial probability refers to the probability that a negative binomial
experiment results in r - 1 successes after trial x - 1 and r successes after trial x. For
example, in the above table, we see that the negative binomial probability of getting the
second head on the sixth flip of the coin is 0.078125.
Given x, r, and P, we can compute the negative binomial probability based on the
following formula:
Example:
Bob is a high school basketball player. He is a 70% free throw shooter. That means his
probability of making a free throw is 0.70. During the season, what is the probability that
Bob makes his third free throw on his fifth shot?
To solve this problem, we enter these values into the negative binomial formula.
b*(x; r, P) = x-1Cr-1 * Pr * Qx - r
b*(5; 3, 0.7) = 4C2 * 0.73 * 0.32
b*(5; 3, 0.7) = 6 * 0.343 * 0.09 = 0.18522
Thus, the probability that Bob will make his third successful free throw on his fifth shot
is 0.18522.
The formula for negative binomial distribution can also be represented
as the following:
Example: Find the probability that a man flipping a coin gets the fourth head on the
ninth flip.
Step 1: Here,
Number of trials n = 9 (because we flip the coin nine times).
Number of successes r = 4 (since we define Heads as a success).
Probability of success for any coin flip p = 0.5
The probability that the coin will land on heads for the fourth time on the ninth coin flip
is 0.1094.
RESEARCH AND METHODOLOGY
ASSIGNMENT
ON
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
Ms.APRA ANCHAL
AGGARWAL
Lect. in Economics M.Com-I
Dept. Roll No. 5518
APEEJAY COLLEGE OF FINE ARTS