Brenning,A.

(2008):StatisticalgeocomputingcombiningRandSAGA:Theexampleoflandslidesusceptibility
analysiswithgeneralizedadditivemodels.In:J.Bhner,T.Blaschke&L.Montanarella(eds.),SAGASecondsOut
(=HamburgerBeitrgezurPhysischenGeographieundLandschaftskologie,vol.19),p. 23-32.

StatisticalgeocomputingcombiningRandSAGA:
Theexampleoflandslidesusceptibilityanalysiswithgeneralizedadditivemodels

AlexanderBrenning
DepartmentofGeography,UniversityofWaterloo,Ontario,Canada

Abstract
Theintegrationofstatisticalsoftwarewithgeographicalinformationsystemsisrequired
tobeabletoefficientlycombinethemostpowerfultoolsandtechniquesavailablein
bothenvironments.TheRSAGApackage,whichprovidesaccesstoSAGAGIS
geoprocessingfunctionsfromwithintheRstatisticaldataanalysisenvironment,isa
recentcontributiontothisendeavor.Thepresentworkgivesanoverviewofthestructure
oftheRSAGApackage,anddemonstratesitsusefulnessinthecontextoflandslide
susceptibilitymodelingwithterrainattributesandgeneralizedadditivemodels(GAMs).
TheGAMisanextensionofthegeneralizedlinearmodel(e.g.linearandlogistic
regression).Itisabletomodelnonlinearrelationships,butretainsaninterpretable
additivestructure.InthecasestudyonlandslidedistributionintheEcuadorianAndes,
severallocalaswellascatchmentrelatedmorphometricattributesareimportant,
mostlynonlinearpredictorsoflandslideoccurrence.Otherapplicationsthatcanbenefit
fromanintegrationofmodernstatisticalcomputingtechniquesandGISbaseddigital
terrainanalysisincludepedometrics,PrecisionAgriculture,andspecieshabitatstudies.

Introduction
SpatialanalysisusingGeographicalInformationSystem(GIS)techniquesononesideandthestatistical
analysisofenvironmentaldataontheotherprovidetwodifferentviewsofspatialdataanalysis
problemsthataretoooftenseparatedbydisciplinaryandsoftwarerelatedbarriers.However,both
perspectiveshavemuchtocontributetospatialdataanalysis:GISsoftwareprovidesarichsetoftools
forspatialdatamanipulation,queries,andvisualization,andstatisticaldataanalysissoftwarecanoffer
spatialandnonspatialtechniquesrequiredforunderstandingdataorapplyingpredictivemodels.These
modelsmayrangefromtraditionalstatisticalonessuchaslinearregressiontocomplexblackbox
modelssuchasthesupportvectormachine,apowerful,emergingmachinelearningtechnique.
Giventhefastprogressingeographicalinformationscienceandcomputationalstatistics,efficientways
ofcouplingGISanddataanalysissoftwarearerequired.Thisintegrationhasbeenanimportanttopicin
recentyearsinthedevelopercommunityofR(seee.g.Bivand,2000;Brenning&vandenBoogaart,
2001;Bivandetal.,2008),anopensourcedataanalysisenvironmentthatiswidelyusedinstatistical

sciences(Ihaka&Gentleman,1996).AwidevarietyoffreeRextensions(packages)isnowavailable
thatsupportgeodataformats(e.g.packagesshapefiles,rgdal,maptools)orspatialstatisticaltechniques
(e.g.packagesgstat,spdep,nlme).
TheobjectiveofthepresentworkistointroducetheRpackageRSAGA(Brenning,2007a),which
integratesSAGAfunctionalityintoR,inacasestudyoflandslidesusceptibilitymodelingthatalso
exemplifiestheneedforaseamlessintegrationofterrainanalysisandstatisticalmodels.Asimilarlinkis
currentlybeingestablishedtoaccessgeoprocessingtoolsofESRIsArcGISfromwithinRusingthe
RPyGeopackageandaPythoninterface(Brenning,2007b).
Thisworkisdividedintosixsections:Thefirsttwosectionsintroducethelandslidedistributiondata,and
theterrainanalysisandstatisticaltechniquessuitablefortheiranalysis.Thenexttwosectionsgivean
overviewofthestructureoftheRSAGApackage,andoutlineitsapplicationinconstructinggeneralized
additivemodelsoflandslidesusceptibility.Finally,analyticalandpredictivemodelresultsarepresented
anddiscussed,andsomegeneralconclusionsaredrawn.

Casestudy:Landslidesusceptibility
Landslidesusceptibilitymodelingonaregionalscalecanbeconsidereda(soft)classificationproblem,
whereameasureofthelikelihoodoflandslideoccurrencehastobeestimated.Avarietyofapproaches
hasbeenappliedforthispurpose,mainlyempiricalones(seethereviewbyBrenning,2005),butalso
physicallybasedmodels(e.g.Montgomery&Dietrich,1994),andcellularautomatamodels(Guthrieet
al.,2008).Empiricalmodelsrequireatrainingdatasetalandslideinventorytobeprovidedformodel
fitting,andespeciallyfortheassessmentofflexiblemachinelearningtechniquesitisalsorequiredto
usespatiallyortemporallyindependenttestdatasetsoraspatialcrossvalidation(Brenning,2005).
Amongthepredictorsthataremostwidelyusedinlandslidesusceptibilitymodelingareterrain
attributes(especiallyslopeangleandcontributingarea),landuse,andsoilorlithologicalproperties.
ThepresentstudyusesamultitemporallandslideinventoryfromtheAndesofSouthernEcuadorthat
wascreatedbyStoyan(2000).Landslidesandtheirimportanceincontrollingvegetationsuccessionin
thetropicalmountainrainforestsoftheareawerestudiedbyStoyan(2000),Wilckeetal.(2003),
Bussmann(2004)andLozanoetal.(2005).Brenning(2005)compareddifferentstatisticalandmachine
learningtechniquesforlandslidepredictionusingadifferentsubsetofStoyansinventory,howeverwith
anextendedsetofpredictorvariables.
Thestudyareacomprises11.2km,0.94kmofwhichwereclassifiedasmassmovementsinthe
transitionbetweenshallowtranslationallandslidesanddebrisflows(Figure1).Landslideinventories
werecompiledfor1962,1969,1976,1989,and1998.Deforestationandsubsequentgrazingtakeplace
alongtheroadfromLojatoZamora;thisaswellasthedirectimpactoftheroadonslopestabilitylead
toincreasedlandslideactivityneartheroad.Distancefromdeforestationanddistancefromroadwere
thereforeusedaspredictorvariablesinadditiontoterrainattributes(seenextsection)anddistanceto
pastlandslidelocations.Notethatalldistancevaluesaboveacertaincutoffvalue(100mfordistance
frompastlandslides,300motherwise)werereducedtothatcutoffvaluetoavoidoverfitting.
Inthepresentstudy,twolandslidesusceptibilitymodelsarefittedtoStoyans(2000)landslideinventory
of1976,andevaluatedbasedontheinventoriesof1989and1998.Thisevaluationusingfuture
inventoriesisintendedtoavoidreportingoveroptimisticerrormeasuresthatwouldbeobtainedby
measuringtheperformanceonthetrainingdataitself(compareBrenning,2005).

Figure1:Locationofthestudyarea(left)andspatialdistributionofalllandslidesobservedbetween
1962and1998(right).

TerrainAnalysisandStatisticalMethods
Inadditiontosoilandgeologicalcontrolsonlandslidesusceptibility,forwhichaccuratedatais
unavailableinmanymountainareas,terrainattributesderivedfromdigitalelevationmodels(DEMs)
havebeenidentifiedasimportantinfluencesonthespatialdistributionoflandslides(e.g.Montgomery
&Dietrich,1994;Atkinson&Massari,1998;Ohlmacher&Davis,2003).Theimportanceofterrain
attributesisrelatedtothephysicalcontrolsonslopestability(slopeangle,upslopecontributingarea;
Montgomery&Dietrich,1994),butalsotothefactthatterrainattributesareproxiesforavarietyof
processesandsubstrateproperties(e.g.soilerosionandaccumulation;soilmoisturecontent,soil
texture).Thepresentworkestimateslandslidesusceptibilitybasedonselectedterrainattributes(slope
angle,planandprofilecurvature,sizeandslopeoftheupslopecontributingarea)andlandcoverrelated
variables(distancetoroad,todeforestation,topastlandslidelocations).Terrainattributesarederived
fromaDEMcreatedbyStoyan(2000)fromtopographicmapdataenhancedbyairphotoevaluation.
Sincesubstratepropertiesincludingvariablesthatvaryintimesuchassoilwetnessareusuallynot
knownatallornotindetail,thecombinationofavarietyofterrainattributesinempiricalstatistical
modelsisoftenmorepromisingthantheapplicationofphysicallybasedmodelwithinsufficientdata.
Logisticregressionisamongthemostwidelyusedmethodsinlandslidesusceptibilitymodelingand
manyotherapplicationswhereasoftdiscriminationbetweenthepresenceandabsenceofa
phenomenonisdesired(e.g.Atkinson&Massari,1998;Ohlmacher&Davis,2003).
Whilelogisticregressionhasproventobecompetitivewithsomeofthehighlyflexiblemachinelearning
techniquesthattendtooverfittospatiallydependentdata(Brenning,2005),itisunabletomodel
nonlinearrelationshipsthatareoftenfoundinlandslidepatterns.Thegeneralizedadditivemodel(GAM;
Hastie&Tibshirani,1990;implementedintheRpackagegam:Hastie,2006)extendsthelogisticand

linearregressionmodelsbyintroducingnonlineartransformationsofthepredictorvariableswhile
maintaininganinterpretableadditivestructure,i.e.theeffectsofdifferentpredictorsarestilladdedup.
ThestudyofBrenningetal.(2007)isarecentexampleoftheuseoftheGAMingeomorphological
researchbasedonterrainattributesaspredictors.
Thereceiveroperatingcharacteristic(ROC)curveissuitableforassessingthepredictiveperformanceof
softclassifiersindependentlyofaspecificdecisionthresholdthatcouldbeusedtodelineateunstable
areas.TheROCcurverepresentsallpossiblecombinationsofsensitivities(fractionoftruepositive
predictions)andspecificities(fractionoftruenegativepredictions)thatcanbeachievedbyagivensoft
classifier.TheareaundertheROCcurve(AUROC)takesavaluebetween0.5(nodiscrimination)to1.0
(perfectdiscrimination),whichsummarizestheabilityofaclassifiertoseparatelandslideandnon
landslidelocations.

TheRSAGAPackage
TheRSAGApackageprovidesRgeocomputingfunctionsthatmakeuseofthecommandlineinterfaceof
SAGAGIS,saga_cmd.exe,toexecuteSAGAGISmodules.RSAGAiscurrentlylimitedtotheWindows
platform.TheRSAGApackageconsistsofthefollowingthreegeneralcomponents.
1. TheRSAGAcoreprovideslowlevelaccesstotheSAGAcommandlineprogramthroughthe
rsaga.geoprocessorfunction,whichconvertsRargumentsintoacommandthatisexecuted
bytheoperatingsystem.ItalsoaccessesSAGAmodulelibrariesandhelpfilestogive
informationonavailablemodules(functionrsaga.get.modules)andcommandlineoptions
(rsaga.get.usage).MostRSAGAuserswillhoweverfindtheinformationtheyneedintheR
helpfiles,unlesstheywishtouseaSAGAmodulethathasnotyetbeenintegratedinR.
2. TheRSAGAmodulespartofthepackageimplementsaseriesofinterfacefunctionsthatallow
theRusertorunSAGAmodulesfromwithintheaccustomedRenvironment.Examplesare
functionssuchasrsaga.local.morphometry(orthederivedrsaga.slope)and
rsaga.flow.accumulation,whichwillbeappliedlaterinthiswork.Thesefunctionsare
oftenmoreconvenientthanthecorrespondingSAGAmodules;asanexample,flow
accumulationalgorithmscanbechosenbytheirnameoracronym(e.g.mfdforthemultiple
flowdirectionalgorithm)asanalternativetotheintegercoderequiredbySAGAitself.
3. TheRSAGAgridtoolsareacompilationofadditionalusefulfunctionsforgeocomputingand
datainput/output.Thispackagesectionimplements,forexample,genericfunctionsforapplying
userdefinedfunctionsonmovingwindows([multi.]focal.function).Thisallowstheuser
toimplementapplicationspecificterrainattributes(suchasthewindshelterindexforsnow
distributionmodeling;Plattneretal.,2004)orexperimentwithnewfilters.Thefamilyofpick
functions(e.g.pick.from.ascii.grid,pick.from.shapefile)furthermoreallowsto
quicklyadddatafromavarietyofsourcesasnewvariablestoadataframeinR.(Itshouldbe
notedthatthesefunctionsarecurrentlyratherinefficientforlargedatasetsbecausetheyare
fullyimplementedinR,whichisaninterpreterlanguage.)

LandslideSusceptibilityModelingusingRandRSAGA
KeypartsoftheRimplementationofthepresentanalysisareoutlinedinthissection.Thestartingpoint
isasetofASCIIgridsrepresentingtheDEM,distancetoroad,thefivelandslideinventories,anddistance
todeforestationatthefivetimepoints.(TheRPyGeopackageofBrenning(2007b)couldhavebeenused
toderivethedistancegridsfromvectordata,andtoexporttheoriginalESRIrasterstoASCIIformat,but
integrationwithArcGISisnotthefocusofthiswork.)
AfterconvertingallASCIIgridstoSAGAformatwithRSAGAbycalling
rsaga.esri.to.sgrd(dir(pattern = glob2rx("*.asc")))

localmorphometricparametersarecalculatedwiththemethodofZevenbergen&Thorne(1987),sinks
arefilled,andcontributingareasizeandslopearedeterminedwiththemultipleflowdirection(MFD)
algorithm(Quinnetal.,1991):
rsaga.local.morphometry("dem", out.slope = "slope",
out.hcurv = "hcurv", out.vcurv = "vcurv",
method = "poly2zevenbergen")
rsaga.sink.removal("dem", out.dem = "sdem", method = "fill")
rsaga.parallel.processing("sdem", out.carea = "carea",
out.cslope = "cslope", method = "mfd")

TheresultsarethenconvertedbacktoASCIIformatwiththersaga.sgrd.to.esrifunction.
Toobtainacompacttrainingsamplewithasufficientnumberoflandslidepixels,randomsamplesof500
landslideand500nonlandslidepixelsaredrawnfromeachofthelandslideinventorydatasets.Without
goingintothedetailsofthesampling,theterrainattributesareaddedtothetable(dataframed)with
thesamplinglocationsusingcommandssuchas
d = pick.from.ascii.grid(d, slope)

Thisusesnearestneighborinterpolation,whichisjustfinesincethesamplelocationscoincidewithgrid
nodes.SimilarpickfunctionsareavailableinRSAGAtoconvenientlymatchdatafrom,forexample,
pointshapefilestoRdataframesusingeithernearestneighbororkriginginterpolation.Thetime
dependentgrids(landslideinventoriesanddeforestationdistances)arematchedtothesamplesina
similarway.
Spinograms(asproducedbytheRfunctionspineplot)areasimplemeansforsimultaneouslyplotting
theempiricalfrequencyoflandslideoccurrenceconditionalonapredictorvariable,andtheempirical
frequencyofthatvariable(Figure2).


Figure2:Empiricalfrequenciesoflandslideoccurrenceinthe1976trainingdataconditionalonthe
predictorvariables.Barwidthsinthesespinogramsareproportionaltotheempiricalfrequencyofthe
givenintervalofpredictorvalues.

Thegeneralizedadditivemodel(GAM)isbuiltusingastepwisevariableselectionstartingfromthenull
modelandusingtheAkaikeInformationCriterion(AIC)asselectioncriterion.Thescopeofthemodelis
setuptoallowtheGAMtochooseinthevariableselectionbetween(a)includingavariableasa
nonparametricallytransformedpredictorconsumingtwoequivalentdegreesoffreedom,(b)includingit
asalinearpredictor,or(c)omittingit.TheAICpenalizesthemodelsizeandthereforeguaranteesthat
thefinalmodeliscompact.TheRimplementationisasfollows:
library(gam)
gam.scope = list(
~ 1 + distroad + s(distroad,2),
~ 1 + I(distdeforest > 0) + distdeforest + s(distdeforest,2),
~ 1 + log.carea + s(log.carea,2),
~ 1 + cslope + s(cslope,2),
~ 1 + hcurv + s(hcurv,2),
~ 1 + vcurv + s(vcurv,2),
~ 1 + slope + s(slope,2) )
fit0 = gam(slides ~ 1, data = train, family = binomial)
fit = step.gam(fit0, scope = gam.scope,
direction = "both", trace = TRUE)
pred = predict(fit, newdata = test, type = "response")

Inadditiontothismodel,whichwillbereferredtoasGAM1,asecondmodelGAM2isconstructedthat
isofferedanadditionalvariable,thedistancefrompastlandslides(i.e.fromthepreviousinventory)asa
candidatepredictorinstepwisevariableselection.ThenonlineartransformationsbothGAMmodelsare
showninFigures3(GAM1)and4(GAM2).

InR,fittedstatisticalmodelscanconvenientlybeappliedtodataavailableasRtables(dataframes).A
simpleapproachforapplyingfittedmodelstostacksofrasterfilesrepresentingthepredictorvariablesis
howevernotavailable.RSAGAprovidesaninterfaceforapplyingfocalfunctionsonmovingwindowsto
rasterdatasets.Thisapproachiscurrentlybeingextendedtobeabletodealwithmodelpredictionson
gridsinthenextRSAGArelease(version0.91).ThefollowingRstatementoutlineshowthiswillbe
resolved(implementationdetailsmaystillchange);theresultingpredictionmapisshowninFigure6:
multi.focal.function(
in.grids = c("slope", "hcurv", "vcurv", "carea",
"cslope", "distroad", "distdeforest"),
out.varnames = "pred",
fun = grid.predict, control.predict = list(type = "response"),
fit = fit, trafo = my.trafo )

Indetail,thegrid.predictfunctionpassedontomulti.focal.functionisresponsibleforcalling
thefitobjectsactualpredictmethod;sincetherawvariablesareoftenmodifiedbeforegoingintoa
modelaspredictors(example:logtransformationofthecontributingareavariable),thetrafo
argumentallowsforuserdefinedvariabletransformationsasdefinedinthemy.trafofunctionthat
willbeautomaticallyappliedtothegridvaluestakenfromthein.grids.

ResultsandDiscussion
Bothmodels,GAM1andGAM2(Figures3and4,respectively),sharethelog10transformedupslope
contributingarea(log.carea)andtheprofilecurvature(vcurv)asnonlinearterms;the
transformationsarepracticallythesameinbothmodels,withanobviousnonlinearityinlog.carea
andanearlylinearbehaviorforvcurv.GAM1(Figure3)furthermoreuseslineartermsfordistancefrom
roadandslopeangle;asexpected,steepslopesandareasclosetotheroadaremorelikelytobe
unstableinGAM1,andthisisespeciallytruewheretheupslopecontributingareaisnottoosmall(at
leastafewhundredsquaremeters)andwheretheprofilecurvatureisconvex(i.e.positive).
Thesecondmodel(GAM2;Figure4)indicatesthatlandslidesareverylikelytooccuratornearpast
landslidelocations(within<30mdistance),whichrelatestothereactivationorlateralgrowthofexisting
landslidescarps.Sincelandslidedensitywasalwayshighestneartheroadandneardeforestationareas,
thepastlandslidevariablemakesitunnecessarytousetheroadanddeforestationrelatedvariables.A
steepupslopecontributingarea(>20slopeangle)isanadditionalriskfactorwithanonlinearinfluence,
aswellasanottoosmallcontributingareaandaconvexprofilecurvature.
Thepredictiveperformanceofbothmodelsonthe1989and1998datasets,i.e.inthepredictionof
futurelandslides,isvisualizedinFigure5asROCcurves.AUROCvaluesrangebetween0.67and0.77,
whichisreasonableforlandslidesusceptibilitymodelsevaluatedonindependenttestdatasets
(compareBrenning,2005).TheGAM2model,whichusesthedistancetopastlandslidelocationsasa
predictorvariable,achieveshigherAUROCvaluesthanGAM1.Thisisduetotherelativelyhigh
sensitivities(truepositiverates)achievedbyGAM2atlowfalsepositiverates(highspecificities),which
isrelatedtoreactivatedlandslidesthatcaneasilybedetectedbasedondistancefrompastlandslides.


Figure3:Transformationsofpredictorvariablesinthegeneralizedadditivemodelthatdoesnotuse
distancetopastlandslidelocationsasapredictorvariable.

Figure4:Transformationsofpredictorvariablesinthegeneralizedadditivemodelthatusesdistanceto
pastlandslidelocationsasapredictorvariable.


Figure5:ROCcurvesoflandslidesusceptibilitypredictionsgeneratedbythegeneralizedadditivemodels
trainedonthe1976landslideinventory(left:GAM1,notusingdistancetopastlandslidesaspredictor
variable;right:GAM2,includingthisvariable).ROCcurvescorrespondtopredictionsfor1989(solidline;
AUROC=0.72forGAM1and0.74forGAM2),and1998(dashedline;AUROC=0.67forGAM1and0.77
forGAM2).SeealsoFigure6.

Figure6:Landslidesusceptibilitymapfor1989predictedbythegeneralizedadditivemodelsGAM1(left,
notusingdistancetopastlandslidesaspredictorvariable)trainedonthe1976landslideinventory,and
GAM2(right,usingthedistancevariable).SeealsoFigure5.

Conclusions
Thepresentapplicationofterrainanalysismethodsandgeneralizedadditivemodelstolandslide
susceptibilityanalysisprovidesanexampleofhowGISbasedtoolscanbecombinedwithpowerful
statisticalmodels.TheaccesstoSAGAGISmodulesthroughitscommandlineinterfacefacilitatesthe
integrationwithRasimplementedintheRSAGApackage(Brenning,2007a).Drawbacksofthepresent
implementationaretheneedforfrequentfileconversionsbetweenSAGAandASCIIgridformatsand
theplatformdependence(currentlyonlyWindows)becauseofthedirectcalltothecommandline
interfaceprogram.ItwillbenecessarytosynchronizeRSAGAwithmajorstepsinSAGAdevelopment,
andtoprovidesomelevelofforwardandbackwardcompatibilitywithSAGAGISintheimplementation
anddocumentationofRSAGA.
Inanappliedcontext,terrainattributesarewidelyusednotonlyingeomorphologyandglaciology(e.g.
Atkinson&Massari,1998;Plattneretal.,2004;Brenningetal.,2007,andthepresentstudy),butalsoin
pedometrics(e.g.Bhner&Selige,2006)andPrecisionAgriculture(e.g.Brenningetal.,2008).Theseare
someofthefieldsofresearchandapplicationofterrainanalysisandenvironmentalstatisticsthatmay
benefitfromabetterintegrationofGISandstatisticalsoftware,orfromanintegrationofSAGAGISand
Rinparticular.TheRSAGApackageisacontributiontothisintegrationthatishopefullyusefultomany
spatialmodelers.

Acknowledgements
TheauthorthanksR.Stoyan,Erlangen,forprovidingthelandslideinventoryandadditionalthematic
datafromtheECSFarea,andtheSAGAGISdeveloperteamforcreatingandmaintainingthisexcellent
geocomputingenvironment.
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