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London,

13 October 2014
OECD/IEA 2014

The sub-Saharan context


GDP is rising, but almost half of a fast-growing population lives in

extreme poverty: energy is vital to the prospects for development


Region accounts for 13% of global population, but only 4% of its

energy demand: half of this is biomass


Poor electricity infrastructure is a key impediment to growth
Large resource base, exploited only in part in the case of oil, gas &

coal, largely untouched in renewables


Domestic energy reforms gaining speed, but two-thirds of energy

investment since 2000 went to develop resources for export


OECD/IEA 2014

Rich in resources

Gas
OilGas

Oil

Hydro

Fossil fuels
Oil

Wind

Oil
Gas

Oil

Solar

Coal

In the last 5 years, almost 30% of global oil & discoveries were in sub-Saharan Africa;
the region has vast untapped renewables potential, notably hydro & solar
OECD/IEA 2014

Rich in resources, but poor in supply

Share of population with


access to electricity:
More than 50%
Less than 50%

In sub-Saharan Africa, 620 million people two-thirds of the population live


without electricity. Only a handful of countries have electrification rates above 50%.
OECD/IEA 2014

Biomass remains at the centre


of the sub-Saharan energy mix
Total primary energy demand in sub-Saharan Africa
Biomass
Oil
2012

Coal

Additional
demand in 2040

Modern renewables
Gas
Nuclear
100

200
Mtoe

300

400

500
Mtoe

Reliance on fuelwood and charcoal remains high, even as incomes grow;


650 million people still cook with biomass in an inefficient & hazardous way in 2040
OECD/IEA 2014

Power to shape the future


Installed power generation capacity by fuel in sub-Saharan Africa
2040 capacity: 380 GW
2012 capacity: 90 GW
Other renewables
0%

Nuclear, 2%

Hydro
22%

Bioenergy, wind
geothermal
8%

Coal
22%

Solar
12%

Coal
45%

Oil, 17%

Hydro
24%

Gas
25%

Gas, 14%
Oil
7%
Nuclear
2%

Renewables account for almost half the growth in overall power supply
& for two-thirds of the mini-grid and off-grid systems installed in rural areas
OECD/IEA 2014

500

300
200

300
200

150
100

100

50

150

2020

2000

2040

Central

120
90

1 000

2020

2040

Southern

800
600

60

Other
renewables
Solar PV
Hydro

30
2000

East

250

400

2000
TWh

West

TWh

600

TWh

TWh

Different paths to power


across the continent

2020

2040

Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal

400
200
2000

2020

2040

The power mix by subregion reflects local resource endowments; well-functioning


regional power pools help to unlock new projects, lower costs & improve reliability
OECD/IEA 2014

Minor cause, but major effect


Cumulative CO2 emissions, 1890-2012
Gt CO2 400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
United
States

European
Union

China

India

Middle
East

Sub-Saharan
Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa is on the front line to feel the effects of a changing climate but,
even with an extra 25 Gt to 2040, accounts for only a marginal share of emissions
OECD/IEA 2014

A changing balance to oil production


Oil production in sub-Saharan Africa
mb/d 7

Production:

Other
Angola

Nigeria

4
3
2
1
2000

2013

2020

2030

2040

The region remains a major global supplier, although regulatory uncertainty, unrest
& oil theft in Nigeria make Angola the main producer of crude oil until the 2020s
OECD/IEA 2014

A new global gas player


Increase in gas production in selected countries and regions, 2012-2040
United States
Angola

Sub-Saharan Africa

Mozambique

Nigeria

Other

Tanzania
Russia
Australia
North Africa
50

100

150

200

250
bcm

LNG export is the anchor for the east coast gas discoveries , but half of the overall
increase in gas output goes to domestic power generation & industry
OECD/IEA 2014

Sub-Saharan Africa turns to Asia


Sub-Saharan fossil fuel export revenues
Revenue from
Asia-Pacific markets

180
150

Coal
Natural gas

120

Crude oil

90
60
30

Billion dollars (2013)

Billion dollars (2013)

Revenue from European


& Atlantic basin markets
180
150
120
90
60
30
2005

2013

2040

2005

2013

2040

Export destinations for all fossil fuels switch towards Asia-Pacific markets: gas & coal
volumes rise, but oil exports tail off as more crude is refined within the region
OECD/IEA 2014

Investment has to come home

Billion dollars (2013)

Average annual investment in sub-Saharan energy supply


120
100
For export
80

60

40

20

2000-2013

For consumption within


sub-Saharan Africa:
Fuels
Electricity

2014-2035

In a reversal of current trends, 2 out of 3 future investment dollars produce energy


for sub-Saharan consumers, but this is still not enough to meet their needs in full
OECD/IEA 2014

A large step towards universal access,


but still a long way to go
Access to electricity in sub-Saharan Africa
Million 1 800
1 500

Population with
electricity access

1 200

Population without
electricity access

900
600
300

2012

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Nearly 1 billion people gain access to electricity, but this still leaves 530 million,
primarily in rural communities, without power in 2040
OECD/IEA 2014

How could energy make


the 21st an African Century?
Energy could do more to act as an engine of inclusive economic

and social growth


An African Century Case assesses the impact of faster movement

in three key areas:


An upgraded power sector; reducing power outages by half &
achieving universal access in urban areas
Deeper regional co-operation; expanding markets & unlocking a
greater share of the continents hydropower potential
Better management of resources & revenues; more efficiency &
transparency in financing essential infrastructure

OECD/IEA 2014

Energy can build


a shorter path to prosperity

4
3

700

Billion dollars (2013)

Million people

Thousand dollars (2013, MER)

Outcomes in the African Century Case, 2040

600
500
400
300

2
1
GDP per capita

210
180
150
120

African Century
Case

90

200

60

100

30
Without access
to electricity

Main Scenario

Government revenues
from oil & gas production

By increasing the coverage & reliability of energy supply, the African Century Case
unlocks an extra decades worth of growth in per-capita incomes by 2040
OECD/IEA 2014

Conclusions
Energy is a cornerstone of sub-Saharan strategies for poverty

reduction & economic growth


Improvements in sector governance are needed to bring in new

energy investors & kick-start development


More efficient & sustainable use of biomass will create a more

healthy domestic energy balance


Sub-Saharan Africa remains a mainstay of global oil production &

emerges as a major player in natural gas


Concerted action to improve the functioning of the energy sector

is essential if the 21st is to become an African century.


OECD/IEA 2014