August 10, 2015

Weekly Technical

Research Analysts
Dharmesh Shah
Nitin Kunte, CMT
Dipesh Dagha
Pabitro Mukherjee
Vinayak Parmar

dharmesh.shah@icicisecurities.com
nitin.kunte@icicisecurities.com
dipesh.dagha@icicisecurities.com
pabitro.mukherjee@icicisecurities.com
vinayak parmar@icicisecurities com
vinayak.parmar@icicisecurities.com

Index forming a base for next up move towards 8850

Benchmark indices settled marginally higher in a choppy trading week even as RBI maintained status quo on policy rates and earnings season peters out. The
Sensex closed at 28241, up 126 points while the Nifty gained 31 points to settle at 8564 levels. Broader markets continued their buoyancy as the BSE midcap and
small
ll cap indices
i di
rose over 2.3%
2 3% each.
h The
Th mid-cap
id
i d consistently
index
i t tl scaling
li to
t new life
lif highs
hi h reflects
fl t stock
t k specific
ifi action
ti while
hil index
i d remains
i range bound
b
d
The weekly price action formed a small bull candle which reflects small range activity while maintaining a higher high higher low. The shadows on either side are
symptomatic of the intra week volatility. Index has now retraced 80% of its preceding two week decline (8654 to 8321). The ongoing consolidation post July
highs of 8654 is expected to act as the launch pad for next leg of rally as index has now worked off the excesses built during the 9% rally from June lows (7940).
Post conclusion of current healthy consolidation, we expect index to take out July highs of 8654 and gear up for next up move towards 8850 over coming weeks.
The buoyancy of broader markets is testament of the underlying bullish sentiment. We expect broader market outperformance to continue in coming weeks
The corrective consolidation over the last three weeks is seen as a higher
base building process which has also helped markets to work off the highly
overbought conditions developed after the 9% rally (7940 to 8654). The
index has so far taken eight sessions to retrace 80% of the preceding four
session fall from recent swing high of 8654 to 8321 The slower pace of the
current pullback corroborates our stance of a range bound market scenario
while stock specific action continues to dominate trade. In the upcoming
eventful week, markets will look for further cues from IIP, CPI and WPI
inflation data prints

NSE Nifty Weekly Candlestick Chart

9119

Support: 8500, 8430

8844

Resistance: 8654, 8730

8654

The recent swing high of 8654 will be the key trend deciding level in the
coming week. A strong close above 8654 will confirm a higher high
formation signaling end of the current consolidation and indicate
continuation of the uptrend towards 8850. We expect the markets to
conclude the recent consolidation in coming weeks and gradually head
towards its April 2015 high of 8850 levels.
levels The confluence of 80%
retracement of the entire correction from March to June 2015 (9119 to 7940)
near 8850 makes this a key short-term hurdle for the index, going forward

7961

52 week EMA

The panic low formed on RBI policy session at 8448 region will act as an
immediate technical support for the index as it also coincides with an
intraday gap placed at 8448-8421 levels. From a short-term perspective, we
believe the base for the index has shifted upwards to the 8300 region, which
i the
is
th confluence
fl
off the
th 50% retracement
t
t off the
th entire
ti up move from
f
J
June
2015 bottom of 7940 to July 2015 high of 8654 at 8300, the rising 200 day
EMA currently placed at 8278 and lows of past five weeks placed at 8315

7997

7940

Short term support shifted

Sh
hif d
upwards to 8300

Weekly RSI sustained above its 9 period average despite

recent cool off highlighting the underlying strength

Among oscillators, the weekly RSI is seen consolidating in positive territory

in a narrow band of 50-55 readings since last 5 weeks indicating range
bound markets
OMCss, auto,
auto IT and Infra space to
Sectors of the week: We expect OMC
outperform in the coming week, while FMCG space may take a breather
after recent run-up. Metal space will continue to underperform

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Bank Nifty (18979): Bank Nifty to challenge 19280 levels

Deal Team At Your Service

CNX Bank Nifty Weekly Candlestick Chart

20934
Bank Nifty produced a firm rebound
from 50% retracement of June-July rally
and seen

Bank Nifty futures extended gains even as RBI maintained status quo on
policy rates in previous week. Near month futures settled at 18979, up 144
points or 0.76% week on week
The weekly price action formed a bullish candle with larger upper shadow
indicating profit booking during later part of the week near July 2015 high
(19280). However, a higher high and higher low indicate continuation of an
up trend

19280

IIndex
d
h ld above
held
b
18800 despite
d
i RBIs
RBI status quo on policy
li
rates and
d
traded choppy in a narrow range (19194-18810) for entire week. In a
process index retraced late July 2015 decline by 90% maintaining positive
bias. Going forward we maintain bullish bias for Bank Nifty futures as long
as it held above 18800 levels and expected to challenge July highs of
19280 levels. A decisive breach and close above 19280

50%

At late July
y lows of 18191 the index took support
pp
precisely
p
y at the 50%
retracement of the June-July rally at 18200. This retracement after a 12%
rally in June-July (17138 to 19280) is seen as a healthy consolidation as
the index worked off its overstretched conditions while forming a higher
bottom. This has created room for a further upward move in the coming
months. After ongoing consolidation, we expect the index to resume its
rising trajectory and gradually head towards 20000 over the coming few
months. The 80% retracement of the March-June decline from 20740 to
17138 is around 20000. This also coincides with the overhead trend line
joining the highs of January 2015 (20934) and March 20740) placed around
20000 levels

17138

52 week EMA

RSI took support at is 9 period average

highlighting underlying strength in the trend

Among oscillators, the 14 week RSI took support at its nine period average
during recent decline and has rebounded from thereon highlighting
underlying strength in the trend and indicates continuation of the upward
momentum in the coming weeks.
weeks
The key barriers for Bank Nifty May future in the coming week are placed
at 19280, 19450 whereas 18800, 18600 are key supports

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Trend Scanner

Deal Team At Your Service

Positive Trends

Candlestick Pattern

Scrip Name

Close

Delivery % 5 days Averge

42.00

1,331.6

1,216.0

1,150.0

54.00

JSW Steel

Engulfing Bull

922.5

Praj Industries

Engulfing Bear

1,361.4

1,380.0

1,383.0

68.00

OIL India

Engulfing Bull

456.4

GSPL

Engulfing Bear

125.2

20,631.6

19,507.0

18,341.0

38.00

SKF India

Engulfing Bull

1361.4

Hexaware

Dark Cloud Cover

279.2

1 833 5
1,833.5

1 776 0
1,776.0

1 735 0
1,735.0

50 00
50.00

Brigade

Engulfing Bull

Bharat Forge

Continuous

Strides Arcolab

Negative Trends
Scrip Name

Close
1,048.9

50 days EMA
1,132.0

100 days EMA

1,183.0

Delivery % 5 days Averge

Pattern name

Bearish Candlestick Formations

255.0

SKF India

Just Dial

Bullish Candlestick Formations

264.0

279.5

Larsen & Toubro

100 days EMA

Scrip Name

Bajaj Electricals

Eicher Motors

50 days EMA

LTP

154.7
1222.7

Bosch

Continuous

26036.4

Eicher Motors

Continuous

20631.6

Larsen & Toubro

Engulfing Bull

Scrip Name

Pattern name

LTP
102.5

JSW Energy

Continuous

77.2

Just Dial

Continuous

1048.9

1833.5

53.00

Legend
Positive and Negative Trends:
The stocks listed in the positive and negative trends section above have been identified after running multiple technical queries based on combination of
various technical parameters applied on a group of NSE cash stocks. The query modules are designed to recognise stocks, which are either at attractive
technical entry levels based on overall price structure or resolving out of medium term consolidation. Consequently the query modules are also aimed at
identifying the stocks which are under performers or in established down trends and therefore may not be good bets from short to medium term perspective.
Candlestick patterns:
Candlestick formations on weekly time interval charts typically point towards the prevailing sentiment comprising the entire trading week and could prove as
an important tool for short term traders. By themselves, the patterns do not carry any price target but only an indication of change in market behaviour. More
importance needs to be given to the placement of the pattern within larger trend. A more detailed description of Candlestick patterns and the way to
understand them is listed at the end of the report

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Market Activity
Domestic Sectoral Indices Performance

Gl b l Markets
Global
M k ts
China

3,744.2
2.2%

Germany

11,490.8
1.6%

France

5,154.8
1.4%

Japan

20,724.6
0.7%

UK

6,718.5
0.3%

Hong Kong

24,552.5
-0.3%

US

2,077.6
-1.2%

Brazil

48,577.3
-4.5%

Global Currencies, Commodities & Bond Yields

48.39
-6.5%
7.81
0 4 bps
0.4
b
0.66
1.7 bps

Copper (tonne)
Silver (ounce)

US 10 Year
JPY 10 Year

6.1
5.7
4.4
7.9
-11.7
4.9
2.6
-7.7
7.6
12.9
11.9

1.7%
5,164.00

Nifty Gainers / Losers for the week (%)

-1.1%
14.9
0.8%

4.50

6.1

5.9

5.5

2.18

4.5
-3.7

-4.4

-5.5

-5.9

HCLTECH

0.0%

0.98

0.6
1.3
2.0
0.9
1.0
-1.3
1.5
3.9
2.3
2.8
2.5

COALINDIA

1,093.30

Swiss Franc

2.9
0.1
2.8
0.9
0.1
0.7
0.0
3.6
1.1
2.5
2.3

BHEL

EURO 10 Year

0.2%

1.55
-0.8%

11413.47
8141.03
17521.15
11168.66
8672.8
9966.73
2064.21
1437.2
11358.74
11557.52
12104.47

IDEA

India 10 year

124.31

British Pound

0.3%

Cons durables
FMCG
Healthcare
IT
Metal
Oil & gas
Power
Realty
BSE 500
BSE midcap
BSE small cap

-3.50
3.50

-2.4
2 4 bps
b
0.40

-11.50

-1 bps

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

DRREDDY

Brent Crude/barrel

0.0%

97 62
97.62

3M
5.9
6.1
9.2
7.1
88
8.8

BOSCHLTD

Gold/ounce

1.10

Dollar Index

1M
0.7
0.7
3.4
1.7
05
0.5

PNB

Japanese Yen

0.5%

1Wk
0.4
0.4
3.4
0.9
17
1.7

TATASTEEL

Euro

63 82
63.82

Current
28236.39
8564.6
19765.17
21702.4
18392 34
18392.34

% Change

Rupee (|)

INDICES
Sensex
Nifty
Auto
Banking
Capital goods

Market Activity
Deal Team At Your Service
Institutional flow trends of last 12 months
Series2

Series1

30000

Series3

28000

-441 1552

54442
5319

10326
-3344

-5768 4177

3940

9244
11721

11476

12078

4309

880
12919

-1172

-1000

29000

2132

5103

4000

5940

4172

9000

7037

14000

13753

1677

19000

26000

28115

Aug'15

June'15

28112

July'15

May'15

Apr'15

Mar'15

Feb'15

Jan'15

Dec'14

Nov'14

Oct'14

25000

Sep'14

6000
-6000

27000

Weekly market breadth trends

Advance %

Decline %

Sensex

19-Jun-15

26-Jun-15

3-Jul-15

10-Jul-15

17-Jul-15

Week Ended

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

56%
44%

12-Jun-15

29500
28000
26500

54%
46%
%

27316

28236

%
51%
%
49%

26425

57%
43%

28463

54%
%
46%

0%

27661

%
55%
45%
%

20%

28093

53%
47%

40%

27812

58%
42%

60%

44%
56%

Perccentage

80%

24-Jul-15

31-Jul-15

7-Aug-15

25000
23500

Dow Jones (17373): A decisive breach of 17400 will indicate extended profit booking

Deal Team At Your Service

Dow Jones Industrials

Weekly Bar Chart

The DJIA closed down by 1.8% during previous week after Solid U.S. jobs
report bolsters case for Fed rate hike next month. Index closed in red in all
the five trading sessions to settle at six month weekly closing lows. DJIA
ended at 17373, down by 316 points or 1.8% for the week

Index placed near the critical support area of 17400. A

decisive breach of the support level will indicate weaken
the price structure in the short term

The weekly price formed a sizable bearish candle which closed below the
low of the recent trading range of 18300-17400. A decisive breach of
previous week low 17279 in coming week would indicate a extended profit
booking the February 2015 and December 2014 lows near 17000 levels

18351

17037

The DJIA has been trading in a narrow range of 18300-17400 since the
beginning of March 2015. A decisive breach of the range will indicate
weaken the price structure in the short term. Long term uptrend remain
intact as the index continues to for higher high and high low in the long
term chart

15855

The index has witnessed consistent buying support near ~ 17400 over the
past four months. Key support is marked by confluence of the lower band
off rising
i i
t
trend
d channel
h
l and
d 52-week
52
k EMA (17556).
(17556) A decisive
d i i
b
breach
h
below 17400 would lead to extended declines towards February 2015 low
of 17000 levels., on the higher side July 2015 high of 18137 remains a key
resistance from short term perspective

52 Weeks EMA

RSI is seen trending down and is placed at its

support zone of 40-45 reading

Among momentum oscillators, the 14 week RSI continues to trend down

and is seen placed near the bull market support area of 45-40
45 40 and is likely
to support the price at lower levels
For the coming week, the DJIA has support at 17250, 17070 while
resistance is placed at 17660, 17900

Source: Spider Software, ICICIdirect.com Research

German
Dax (11490):
Deal Team
At YourTrend
Serviremain positive above 11050 mark
German Dax
Daily Bar Chart

The German equity ended positive by more than 1.5%. Index started the
week in positive note and formed a intra week high of 11669 but profit
booking at higher level saw the index diving up some of its gain and
closed the week at 11490, up by 181 points or 1.6% for the week

12390

The price action for the week formed a Bullish candle indicating a positive
follow up to the previous week bullish Hammer candle. The bias in the
index continues to remain positive above the low of the last week bullish
hammer candle placed at 11050 levels

The index short term bias remain positive above

11050 levels being the low of previous week

11920
11802
11635

As detailed in earlier editions, the index found support near 11050 on

expected lines. We expect it to form a higher bottom around 11000 which
i a strong
is
t
supportt for
f index
i d being
b i confluence
fl
off
61.8% retracement at 11091 of preceding rally(10652-11802)
Support @ 11000

Bullish gap of 10th July 2015 placed at 11035

We expect the index to resolve higher after a base formation near 11000
mark and head towards 12050,
12050 which is the 80% retracement of the entire
decline since April 2015 (12390-10652)

10652
200 day EMA

Among momentum oscillators, the 14-day RSI indicates bullish undertone

as it is trending higher above its support zone of 40-50 and MACD is
sustaining above its trigger line in the daily chart thus supports the
uptrend in the index

MACD is sustaining above its trigger line thus supports up trend

For the coming week, the Dax has support at 11380, 11250 while
resistance is placed at 11670, 11800

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

US$-INR
(63.81):
Deal Team
AtConsolidation
Your Serviceprolongs
US$INR Weekly Bar Chart

The rupee snapped three week losing streak against US dollar ahead of key
US employment data. The domestic currency unit closed at 63.81, up 0.5%
for the week

68.8450

The US$INR pair reacted lower after approaching the higher band of three
month trading
g range
g ((64.30-63.30)) early
y during
g the week helped
p
by
y FII
inflow in domestic equity market and dollar selling by banks and exporters.
Rupee then traded in a narrow range towards later half of the week

Gap @ 65.2450 - 64.5250

61.8% @ 65
Nov13 & Dec14 highs @ 63.90

The entire price action of the US$INR is well channelled since February
2014. The overall medium-term bias for the US dollar will remain positive
as long
g as it trades above 62 levels, which is the value of rising
g 52-week
EMA. However, only a decisive breach from last twelve weeks trading
range (64.30-63.30) would suggest further directional bias for US dollar
From medium term perspective, the US dollar is expected to find strong
resistance around 65 levels as the 61.8% retracement of the August 2013
May 2014 decline (68.8450 58.3350). This also coincides with the bearish
gap area of September 2013 placed at 65.2450

58.3350
Among oscillators, the 14 week RSI continues to trudge sideways
suggesting range bound action for US dollar from a short-term perspective
F
For the
h coming
i
week,
k the
h US$INR support is
i placed
l
d at 63.50,
63 50 63.20
63 20
whereas resistances are placed at 64.00, 64.30

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Gold
may continue amid negative bias
Deal($1088):
Team Consolidation
At Your Service
Weekly Bar Chart
Gold prices traded within previous weeks range before settling marginally
lower extending losses for seventh week in a row ahead of key US
employment data while fears of rate hike continue to linger

After seven week relentless decline, the bullion

may witness some sideways consolidation as
momentum indicators are highly oversold

The weekly price action resembles a small DOJI candle indicating

slowdown in momentum after p
prices approached
pp
deep
p oversold
conditions

1434
1392

After seven weeks of relentless decline, the bullion may witness some
sideways consolidation as momentum indicators are highly oversold.
However, the overall trend remains weak. We believe any pullbacks from
current oversold state will be short-lived and would not last beyond
$1140. We believe the recent break down area and multiple lows formed
in 2014-15 around $1140 will reverse its role and act as resistance incase
of any pullbacks from hereon

1307

As highlighted in the earlier edition the violation of yearly low of 2014 has
signalled a weakening price structure and has the portents of further
downslide over the coming
g months. Structurally,
y, the last two major
j falling
g
segments in 2013 and 2014 measured average $257 points. We expect the
current fall from January 2015 high of $1307 to equal the magnitude of the
2013 and 2014 falling segments thereby projecting downsides towards
$1050 levels over the coming months

$253 fall

1181
$262 fall

2014 low
@ 1130

The 14 week RSI has registered breakdown below its long term rising trendline
Among oscillators, the 14 week RSI remains in downward trajectory after
registering
i t i
a breakdown
b kd
b l
below
it long
its
l
t
term
rising
i i
t
trendline
dli
connecting
ti
major troughs of 2013 and 2014 indicating continued downward bias

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

10

Brent
Heading
for retest of 2015 lows at $45
Deal Crude
Team ($48.5):
At Your
Service
Weekly Bar Chart
Brent crude extended losses for sixth week, longest string of weekly
losses in 2015, amid fears of over supply . For the week, crude oil futures
shed over 6% to reocord lowest levels since January 2015

The break and close below the previous higher bottom

off $52.50
$ 2 0 levels
l l is
i indicative
i di i
off weakening
k i
price
i
structure and opens the door for a retest of the January
2015 bottom of $45 levels in the current month

The weekly price action formed strong bear candle indicating extension of
losses for benchmark brent crude after it breached March 215 bottom
($52.50) in a week earlier

The decisive break and close below the previous higher bottom of $52.50
is indicative of weakening price structure and opens the door for a retest
of the January 2015 bottom of $45 levels in the current month
69

After already correcting over 21% in July, prices may witness some range
bound consolidation owing to oversold state of short term indicators.
However, the overall trend remains weak. We believe the short-term
upsides will remain capped till 60 levels being the recent gap down area
and 50% retracement of the decline from $69 to $51.63 levels

63

Among oscillators, the weekly MACD (E-12/26/9) has generated a bearish

crossover below its nine period average signalling a weakening trend and
indicates continuation of downward momentum in the near term

52.5
45
Bearish crossover on weekly MACD highlights the weakening structure

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

11

Previous Weeks Performance

Deal Team At Your Service

Date
5 Jun
5-Jun

Scrip
Coal India

17-Jul
24-Jul
31-Jul

Strides Arcolab
Tamil Nadu Newsprint
Sonata Software

Product
Cash

Strategy
Buy

RP
402.00
402
00

Target
450.00
450
00

SL
380.00
380
00

Cash
Cash
Cash

Buy
Buy
Buy

1310.00
202.00
150.00

1550.00
238.00
178.00

1160.00
183.00
136.00

Gain/Loss % Comment
11 0
11.0
Target almost achieved
Open
Booked 50% profit at 215.00
Target achieved

6.0
19.0

Nifty Stocks Pivot points for the Week (August 10 14,

14 2015)
COMPANY

CMP

PIVOT

S1

S2

R1

R2

NIFTY

8564.60

8539.72

8473.13

8381.67

8631.18

8697.77

SENSEX

28236.39

28154.16

27948.35

27660.32

28442.19

28648.00

ACC

1399.65

1394.22

1371.43

1343.22

1422.43

1445.22

AMBUJACEM

228 50
228.50

229 22
229.22

225 28
225.28

222 07
222.07

232 43
232.43

236 37
236.37

ASIANPAINT

898.65

900.15

873.50

848.35

925.30

951.95

AXISBANK

580.30

580.48

571.47

562.63

589.32

598.33

BAJAJ-AUTO

2537.40

2540.85

2473.70

2410.00

2604.55

2671.70

BANKBARODA

185.00

185.30

177.75

170.50

192.55

200.10

BHARTIARTL

411.60

416.17

404.63

397.67

423.13

434.67

BHEL

266 15
266.15

268 12
268.12

248 28
248.28

230 42
230.42

285 98
285.98

305 82
305.82

BOSCHLTD

26036.40

25801.70

24904.40

23772.40

26933.70

27831.00

BPCL

955.50

941.00

919.00

882.50

977.50

999.50

CAIRN

166.80

168.93

162.27

157.73

173.47

180.13

CIPLA

715.15

716.45

701.80

688.45

729.80

744.45

COALINDIA

414.70

424.65

402.20

389.70

437.15

459.60

DRREDDY

4258 85
4258.85

4210 00
4210.00

4093 50
4093.50

3928 15
3928.15

4375 35
4375.35

4491 85
4491.85

GAIL

341.85

345.97

336.43

331.02

351.38

360.92

GRASIM

3808.70

3785.20

3727.50

3646.30

3866.40

3924.10

HCLTECH

939.35

944.27

925.08

910.82

958.53

977.72

HDFC

1298.45

1312.65

1274.80

1251.15

1336.30

1374.15

HDFCBANK

1092.65

1097.37

1077.23

1061.82

1112.78

1132.92

Source: NSE India, ICICIdirect.com Research

12

Nifty Stocks Pivot points for the Week (August 10 - 14, 2015)
COMPANY

CMP

PIVOT

S1

S2

R1

R2

HEROMOTOCO

2661.85

2686.00

2578.20

2494.55

2769.65

2877.45

HINDALCO

109.55

108.83

105.42

101.28

112.97

116.38

HINDUNILVR

904.85

909.90

895.00

885.15

919.75

934.65

ICICIBANK

310.15

311.38

302.97

295.78

318.57

326.98

IDEA

166.95

168.32

161.63

156.32

173.63

180.32

INDUSINDBK

946.95

957.67

929.33

911.72

975.28

1003.62

INFY

1095.60

1084.03

1062.57

1029.53

1117.07

1138.53

ITC

324.45

326.65

319.80

315.15

331.30

338.15

KOTAKBANK

705.00

699.22

685.93

666.87

718.28

731.57

LT

1833.45

1793.83

1743.67

1653.88

1883.62

1933.78

LUPIN

1694.40

1681.80

1646.70

1599.00

1729.50

1764.60

M&M

1390.30

1388.12

1334.18

1278.07

1444.23

1498.17

MARUTI

4452 95
4452.95

4438 98
4438.98

4393 97
4393.97

4334 98
4334.98

4497 97
4497.97

4542 98
4542.98
106.93

NMDC

104.00

103.03

101.57

99.13

105.47

NTPC

133.85

135.05

132.10

130.35

136.80

139.75

ONGC

282.85

277.17

270.38

257.92

289.63

296.42

PNB

159.90

158.12

152.43

144.97

165.58

171.27

POWERGRID

139.60

140.62

138.33

137.07

141.88

144.17

RELIANCE

984.35

991.78

969.72

955.08

1006.42

1028.48

SBIN

281.30

281.00

270.20

259.10

292.10

302.90

SUNPHARMA

851.95

843.12

828.83

805.72

866.23

880.52

TATAMOTORS

393.40

387.53

379.07

364.73

401.87

410.33

TATAPOWER

69.10

69.53

68.12

67.13

70.52

71.93

TATASTEEL

262.05

258.62

248.73

235.42

271.93

281.82
2637.35

TCS

2552.05

2540.35

2497.70

2443.35

2594.70

TECHM

535.15

538.48

518.17

501.18

555.47

575.78

ULTRACEMCO

3202.45

3187.82

3119.63

3036.82

3270.63

3338.82

VEDL

129.30

128.27

125.13

120.97

132.43

135.57

WIPRO

569.10

568.78

557.82

546.53

580.07

591.03

YESBANK

821.45

829.08

811.72

801.98

838.82

856.18

ZEEL

410.40

408.20

398.70

387.00

419.90

429.40

Source: NSE India, ICICIdirect.com Research

13

Forthcoming Economic Events Calendar

Deal Team At Your Service

Date

Event

US

10-Aug
10-Aug
10-Aug
11-Aug
11-Aug
12-Aug
12
Aug
12-Aug
13-Aug
13-Aug
14-Aug
14-Aug
14-Aug
14-Aug

Labor Market Conditions Index Change

MBA Mortgage Foreclosures
Mortgage Delinquencies
NFIB Small Business Optimism
Nonfarm Productivity
MBA Mortgage Applications
JOLTS Job Openings
Retail Sales Advance MoM
Initial Jobless Claims
PPI Final Demand MoM
PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM
Industrial Production MoM
Manufacturing (SIC) Production

India

10-Aug
12-Aug

Trade Balance
Industrial Production YoY

12-Aug
14-Aug

CPI YoY
Wholesale Prices YoY

China

10 A
10-Aug
10-Aug
12-Aug
12-Aug
12-Aug

New Yuan Loans CNY

Aggregate Financing CNY
Retail Sales YoY
Industrial Production YTD YoY
Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD YoY

UK

11-Aug
12-Aug
12-Aug
12-Aug
13-Aug
14-Aug
14-Aug

BRC Sales Like-For-Like YoY

Claimant Count Rate
Jobless Claims Change
Average Weekly Earnings 3M/YoY
RICS House Price Balance
Construction Output SA MoM
Construction Output SA YoY

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

14

Notes

Deal Team At Your Service

Please
Pl
execute the
h recommendation
d i within
i hi the
h prescribed
ib d range provided
id d in
i the
h report
Once the recommendation is executed, it is advisable to keep strict stop loss as provided in the report on closing basis
We adapt a trading strategy of booking 50% profit when the position is in profit by 3-5% and trail stoploss on remaining position to the
entry point
In recommendations where it is advised to buy on declines, if the target price is hit before activation of the call in prescribed range then the
recommendation is considered not initiated
The recommendations are valid only for the week and are to be squared off by the end of the week. In case we intend to carry forward the
position, it will be communicated through separate mail
Trading Portfolio allocation
It is recommended to spread out the trading corpus in a proportionate manner between the various technical research products
Please avoid allocating the entire trading corpus to a single stock or a single product segment
Within
Withi each
h product
d t segmentt it is
i advisable
d i bl to
t allocate
ll
t equall amountt to
t each
h recommendation
d ti
For example: The Daily Calls product carries 3 to 4 intraday recommendations. It is advisable to allocate equal amount to each
recommendation

15

Recommended Product wise Trading Portfolio allocation

Deal Team At Your Service

16

Candlesticks Glossary:

Deal Team At Your Service

Candlestick patterns describe the market sentiment for the specified period.
period Some of the formations suggest reversal of sentiment (trend) and,
and therefore,
therefore are
important for a chart reader. By themselves, the patterns do not carry any price target but only an indication of change in market behaviour. More importance
needs to be given to the placement of the pattern within larger trend
Morning Star: Potential bottom reversal pattern made of three candle lines. The first sizeable black candle reflects a market in which the bears are in complete
charge. The next candle line--the small real body--shows a slight diminution of the bearish force. The white candle that makes up the last part of the morning
star visually displays the bulls are gaining the upper hand. Lowest low amongst three candles becomes technical support
Bullish Engulfing Line: A potential bottom reversal pattern.
pattern This pattern typically appears at the culmination of a decline or downtrend.
downtrend The market falls,
falls and a
black candle forms (ideally a small black candle). Next, a white real body wraps around the prior sessions black body. Low of the pattern becomes short term
support for prices
Piercing Line: Potential bottom reversal pattern. A black body forms in the downtrend. The market continues moving south on the next sessions open but that
session culminates in a white real body that closes (e.g. pierces) than half way or more into the prior black body. Lowest low between two candles is referred to
as technical support for prices
Hammer: A candlestick line which,
which during a downtrend,
downtrend has a very long lower shadow and small real body (black or white) at the top end of the session
sessionss
range. There should be no, or a very small, upper shadow. Pattern suggests buying support during declines and needs confirmation in terms of sustainability of
prices above head of the Hammer in following session
Evening Star: Potential Top reversal pattern made of three candle lines. Comparable with a traffic signal. First white candle reflects a market in bullish trend.
The next candle line--the small real bodywarns waning momentum. The black candle that completes the evening star visually exhibits that prior up trend has
stopped or reversed
Bearish Engulfing Line: Potential top reversal signal.
signal This two candlestick pattern emerges during a rally.
rally A black candle real body wraps around a white real
body (classically a small white candle) Highest high between two candles becomes resistance level for prices for future reference
Dark Cloud cover: A dark cloud cover forms a top reversal pattern. The first session should be a strong, white real body. The second sessions price opens over
the prior sessions high (or above the prior sessions close). By the end of the second session, it closes near the low of the session and should fall well into the
prior sessions white body. Pattern suggests that market has a poor chance of rising immediately
Shooting Star: A single candlestick line during a rally in which there is a small real body (white or black) at the bottom end of the session's range and a very
long upper shadow. The candle line should also have little or no lower shadow. Pattern suggest the trouble for prices overhead
Continuation Patterns: Other than widely known Candlestick reversal patterns discussed above, there are numerous patterns mentioned in literature on
Candlestick which describe the continuation of existing sentiments i.e. bullish or bearish. We have refrained from mentioning names of these patterns to avoid
confusion. However, the remark Continuation Pattern refers to bullish or bearish candlestick patterns which suggest continuation of existing trend

17

Pankaj Pandey

Head Research
ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,
ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No 7, MIDC
Andheri (East)
Mumbai 400 093
research@icicidirect.com

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

Disclaimer

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Shah Dipesh Dagha,
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Mukherjee Vinayak Parmar Research Analysts
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