Research proposal setup Examples of past & current research projects

Dr George Mermiris
Research Fellow

Department of Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering

University of Strathclyde

AuxNavalia Course 1, Viana do Castelo, 01-03 March 2011

Presentation layout
Need
R&D
management

Thematic
area

Product
development

Opportunity

Research

Market needs
Hypothesis question

Why are we doing this research?

Which are the drivers behind it?
Which are the market needs?
Which are the market trends?
How soon the trends will materialise?
Why things have not developed earlier?
Are things working in their current status?
What are we learning from past experience?
Is past experience really useful?
Can experience be the remedy for future cases?
Can we learn from it? Can we improve the current / future situation?

Market needs
Example 1 Energy efficiency & environmental performance
Energy
efficiency

Interim guidelines for voluntary ship

CO2 emission indexing for use in trials
MEPC/Circ. 471, July 2005

Environmental
performance

Market needs
Example 2 Fishing vessel safety

15-24m 71
fatalities, 28%

Over 24m 77
fatalities, 30%

The 15-24m sector makes

up 12% of the UK fleet and 24%
of UK fishermen

The over 24m sector makes

up 4% of the UK fleet and 20%
of UK fishermen

12-15m 3 fatalities,
1%

The 12-15m sector makes

up 1% of the UK fleet and 1%
of UK fishermen
Under 12m 105
fatalities, 41%

The under 12m sector makes

up 83% of the UK fleet and 55%
of UK fishermen

Source: Marine Accident Investigation Branch

Rate of fatalities (1992-2006) based on the

size of fishing vessel in UK only

Market needs
Example 3 Safety
Safety--critical ships / floating platforms
FPSO

Large cruise liners

Arctic shipping

Constant need to maintain

stability, position, production, etc.
Offshore platforms

Market needs
Example 4 Systems availability
Performance standards for the systems and services to remain
operational on passenger ships for safe return to port and
orderly evacuation and abandonment after a casualty
MSC.1/Circ.1214

Market needs
Example 5 Databases and knowledge
knowledge--intensive models
The process of discovering meaningful correlations,
patterns, and trends by sifting through stored data,
using pattern recognition technologies, and statistical
and mathematical techniques

Interpretation/
Evaluation

Data Mining
Preprocessing

Patterns
Selection

Preprocessed
Data

Data
Marine
Accident / incident
Database

Target
Data

Bayesian Network

Thematic area
Safety

Shipping

escalation in size
specialisation
higher speed
construction materials
over-capacity
greater complexity
more information
less time
competition
manning
ageing fleet

Science &
Technology

phenomenal progress
rapid technological change
better technical capabilities
innovation potential
cost-effective safety

Society
public expectation
for higher safety
increased public
regard for human
life and environment
media coverage
political pressures

Thematic area

Opportunity
Opportunity

Resources

Funding

Human resources

Opportunity
Funding

National

International

Internal

Combination

General aspects
- 100% funding of activities is rare: some contribution is expected from companies
- Tenders are expected from consortia
- The calls for research funding often represent the current trends in the market
- The bids should draw on the current trends and address the call text
- Various kinds of limitations apply (max funding, max number of partners, etc.)

Opportunity
Human resources
Education
Experience
Availability
Interest
Commitment

Research

Philosophical
background /
school of
thought

Overarching
methodological
approaches

Product

-Mathematical modelling
- Optimisation
- Sensitivity analysis
- Uncertainty analysis
Etc.

Research

Design for
Safety
(Philosophy)

Risk-based
Design
(Methodology)

Ship Design

-Mathematical modelling
- Optimisation
- Sensitivity analysis
- Uncertainty analysis
Etc.

Product development
Example 1 Energy efficiency & environmental performance

Energy
efficiency

Environmental
performance

Product development
Example 2 Fishing vessel safety
Dynamic stability analyses
Quatering Seas
10
9

100% Capsize

Hs (m)

7
6

Fuzzy area

5
4
3
2

100% Safe

1
0
0

6
Speed (kn)

Simulation time: 2000 seconds ( 33 minutes)

10

12

Product development
Example 3 Safety
Safety--critical ships / floating platforms
Decision-support system

Large cruise liners

Product development
Example 4 Systems availability
Collision Scenarios

Propulsion
OPERABLE in
335 / 350
cases [96%]
100
90
80

Residual Power (%)

70
60
50
40
30
20

NOT OPERABLE
in 15 / 350 cases
[4%]

Vessel survives more than 1 hour

10

0
-200

Vessel capsizes within 30 minutes

-150

-100

-50

0
location of damage, Xd(m)

50

100

150

200

Product development
Example 5 Databases and knowledge
knowledge--intensive models
Data mining application for fire risk assessment
Marine Accident / incident
Database

Category 6
(small space)
Category 8
(large space)
Category 12
(E/R)

R&D Management
R&D is not one-off activity

Pragmatism & imagination trigger research

Planning = timeframe + resources

Products need to evolve & to respond to

contemporary market needs

Summary
Need
R&D
management

Thematic
area

Product
development

Opportunity

Research

Case study

Probabilistic Framework for Onboard Fire Safety

FIREPROOF

Market needs

Capacity / complexity

Cruise liner design and operational characteristics

2009

1990
1970
1950

Time

Market needs

Market needs often lead to innovative

arrangements and unprecedented
layouts, which make approval difficult.

Market needs
SOLAS framework for Fire (Ch.II-2)
Heavily based on past experience
Prescriptive in nature
Emphasis on mitigation (revision after major
accident)
Focus on the end result (vulnerability analysis)
Difficulty to cater for new / innovative layouts
and operational profiles

Thematic Area
fi = i Ai

Risk-based design for fire safety

Probability
of ignition
for each
SOLAS
space

Loss Scenario:

Probability
of first aid
failure due
to ignition

fire
Probability of fire
growth due to first aid
failure and ignition for
various fire loads,
opening conditions, etc.

HRR kW

Probability
of escalation

2000

1500

1000

500

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

time s

...

Pign Pfaf/ign Pgrowth | faf & ign Pescalation | growth ... Closs of life = Rfire

Evacuation
to adjacent
zones
subject to
reduced
visibility
and fire
effluents.

Opportunity
In the course of SAFEDOR (www.safedor.org)
the idea emerged that a project on the
development of a framework for fire safety
should be pursued.

Funding is received from the

7th Framework Programme (June 2007)

Research

R=PC
nhz

frN ( N ) = frhz (hz j ) prN N hz j

j =1

frN (N): frequency of N fatalities

frhz (hzj): frequency of hazard j
prN(N|hzj): probability of N
fatalities due to hazard j

Research
Frequency analysis (historical data)
frhz ( hz 2 )

collision

0.92 E-2 1/sy

grounding

FSA Cruise
Ships
(SAFEDOR,
FSA, 2007):
1 event every
109 ship years

frhz (hz1 )

1.148 E-3 1/sy

fire

0.002

0.004

0.006

0.008

0.01

0.012

Frequency per Ship Year

FSA Cruise Ships (SAFEDOR, FSA, 2007):

1 event every 871 ship years

0.014

Research
Consequences

FIREPROOF
database

Data Mining
Bayesian
Networks

Event Trees

Research
Consequences

Uncertainty about the necessary

elements for fire simulation

Variation of combustible material

in each space

HRR kW

2000

1500

1000

500

1000

Additional consideration of fire suppression

systems in this set of fires.

2000

3000

4000

5000

time s

Research
Consequences

Evacuation simulation

Hybrid fire simulation model

Research
Consequences
Risk Envelope Fitted to Available Scenarios
Idealised Risk Envelope
Unknown True Risk Envelope
Available data and past accidents

Consequence, C

Potentially Uncharacterised Region

Area = Risk = P x C

Probability, P

Research
Consequences

Ship Product
Model (SPM)

Appreciation of the fire specific

behaviour and its consequences will
only be achieved with simulation of a
large number of accident scenarios.

.spiral

Research FIREPROOF outcome

N

A fire protection =

w
i

ij

p j s ij

A=

- N: number of MVZ
- M: number of spaces per zone
- pj: Probability of fire ignition in a
single space j
-sij: Probability of fire protection in
space j of MVZ i
- wij: weighting factors for space
location (origin, adjacent space or
above), escape and escalation
properties, etc.

w
j=1

. p i .s ji

i =1

j: loading condition under consideration;

J: number of loading conditions;
i: compartment or group of compartments under
consideration;
I: set of all feasible flooding scenarios comprising
single compartments or groups of adjacent
compartments;
wj: probability mass function of the loading
conditions;
pi: probability mass function of the extent of flooding;
sij: probability of surviving the flooding of the group of
compartment(s) i, given loading conditions j
occurred.

A>R

Product development
Space
dRiski = fi P(E) i Ni

1. Methodology

Frequency of
Occurrence

Severity of
Consequences

Statistics

Historical incidence rate

fi

Influencing factors

Quantitative
analysis of fire
simulation &
passenger
evacuation

Probability of Escalation
P(E)
and impact on human
life Ni

- Contents and materials

- First-aid (manual, automatic)
- Containment (passive, active)
- Fire fighting (active)
- Egress and evacuation

- Space use
- Floor area

SOLAS
- Part B (prevention, fire
growth)
Space
(i)

SOLAS
- Part B (fire growth,
smoke generation potential)
- Part C (suppression of fire)
- Part D (means of escape)

Product development
2. Fire and Smoke propagation coupled with evacuation simulation
Fatalities

EX IT

EX IT

F ire ro om

Smoke propagation

Fire simulation
integrated with
evacuation models
to get fatalities

R&D Management
SAFEDOR

FIREPROOF

New project:
coupling of fire /
evacuation with
human behaviour

www.fireproof-project.eu

Course structure

Need

Day 3

R&D
management

Product
development

Day 2

Research

Day 1

Thematic
area

Opportunity

Day 3: Workshop

Collection of project ideas ...

1.
2.
3.
4.