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Conduct a techno-economic analysis of the coal-to-olens (CTO) with CCS.
Analyze effects of key factors on the CTO with appropriate capture rate 80%.
Present strengths and weaknesses of the CTO compared to the methanol-to-olens.
a r t i c l e
i n f o
Article history:
Received 5 September 2013
Received in revised form 21 November 2013
Accepted 23 November 2013
Available online 28 November 2013
Keywords:
Energy efciency
Cost
Coal-to-olens
CCS
Methanol-to-olens
a b s t r a c t
Coal-to-olens (CTO) has been attracting more attention of the chemical process industry, in the light of
the scarcity of oil resources and richness of coal in China. However, it is inherently accompanied with the
problem of severe greenhouse gas emissions. CTO processes therefore face increasing challenges from
other alternative processes, especially methanol-to-olens (MTO) process. This paper conducts a detailed
techno-economic analysis of the CTO process with CCS. The effect of carbon capture is studied. The CTO
process with 80% carbon capture is slightly less thermodynamically efcient than the conventional CTO
process. The corresponding mitigation cost of the process is 150 RMB/t, which is roughly equivalent to
the current carbon price. Thus, the effect of energetic and economic penalties on this carbon capture conguration is negligible. In comparison to the MTO process, the CTO process with CCS is competitive in
product cost even considering carbon tax and it is capable of resisting to market risk. CTO processes with
appropriate CO2 reduction are more applicable to olens industry in China.
2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction
As the backbone of the petrochemical industry, olens production scale is critical to development of national economy. As more
and more oil-to-olens projects launched in China, the production
grows quickly, and the self-sufcient rate of ethylene and propylene will increases up to 53% and 74% by 2015 [1]. However, there
is still a big gap between the domestic supply and demand, which
is in urgently needed to be lled by olens based on alternative resources. From 2005 to 2011, coal accounted for 75.1% of the total
energy production of China, oil for 15.2%, and natural gas for
2.8%, as shown in Fig. 1. The oil import dependence was approached to 57% in 2012. Thus, development of the coal-based olens industry is favorable in the context of increasingly severe oil
supply shortage. There are now three coal-to-olens (CTO) projects
under operation and other two CTO projects in plan in the next
there years in China. These installations are going to approach a
capacity of 3 Mt/y [3].
However, CTO is facing the problem of high CO2 emissions.
There have been a number of techniques of CO2 mitigation developed from chemical and physical methods [4]. For chemical methods, CO2 is reused mostly as feedstock to produce valued chemical
products. Although these methods enable us to exploit CO2 as a
valuable feedstock in many different applications such as the production of urea and methanol, their contribution to CO2 mitigation
is nite. Physical methods are generally regarded as geologically
storing CO2 underneath. In recent years, carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology has received increasing attention because
of its large capacity of reducing CO2 emissions. It is a more economical and efcient method compared to developing renewable
energy, retrotting major equipments, and improving energy integration for resource and energy saving [5].
A CCS process in general involves three stages: separating CO2
from ue gas, compressing CO2 for pipeline transport, and injecting CO2 into geologic reservoirs. For carbon capture, there are
mainly three technologies developed, including post-combustion
capture, oxy-fuel combustion capture, and pre-combustion
46
Nomenclature
Notations in formulation
h
domestic-made factor
CAC
administrative cost (RMB/t)
CCF
cumulative cash ow (RMB)
CCR
carbon capture rate (%)
CD
depreciation cost (RMB/t)
CDSC
distribution and selling cost (RMB/t)
CFi
cash ow of year i (RMB)
CO&M
operating & maintenance cost (RMB/t)
capture [6]. These technologies are usually applied in pulverizedcoal power plants and some chemical plants [7]. Introducing a
CCS will bring penalties on both energetic and economic performance [810]. For example, in most coal-based power plants, the
CO2 avoidance cost is about 250330 RMB/t, which is much
higher than the current carbon price. The penalties brought by
the CCS on chemical processes is, however, lower than those
on power generation processes [11,12]. It demonstrates that it
is necessary to assess the impact of CCS on the whole performance of CTO processes.
Planning a sound development roadmap for alternative olens
production requires a broad and comprehensive assessment. Techno-economic analysis is an essential part of this process. More
importantly, the role of CCS in CTO development is needed to be
analyzed to nd the trade-off among environmental protection, energy penalty, and economic performance. There have been some
studies on techno-economic analysis of CTO processes [1318].
However, the literatures on analyzing CTO processes with CCS from
techno-economic point of view could not be found. Besides, some
views back up developing methanol-to-olens (MTO) processes
since they have the advantages of low capital investment and environmental impact. There are now 1 MTO project under operation
and other 10 MTO projects in plan in the next three years in China,
which will approach to a capacity of 6.8 Mt/y [3]. With the potential challenge of the MTO process, how should people congure
CCS on the CTO process? We answer this question by the technoeconomic comparison of the CTO process with CCS and the MTO
process in this paper.
2. Process modeling
As a base of techno-economic analysis, major units of a CTO
process are modeled, including an air separation unit (ASU), a coal
gasication unit (CG), an acid gas removal unit (AGR), a carbon
capture and storage unit (CCS), a water gas shift unit (WGS), a
methanol synthesis unit (MS), and a methanol-to-olens unit
(MTO). For a plant with given capacity and specied operating conditions, the model calculates all mass and energy ows. The details
of the modeling are described in the following sections.
CPOC
CR
CTS&M
CU
EI
EIrJ
EwCCS
Ew/oCCS
MC
OP
OYi
PC
PCw CCS
PCw/o CCS
RFi
Sj
SrJ
sf
TCI
3500
3000
Hydro,Nuclear,Wind
2500
2000
Mt
Abbreviations
AGR
acid gas removal
ASU
air separation unit
CCS
carbon capture and storage
CG
coal gasication
CTO
coal-to-olens
LHV
lower heating value
MS
methanol synthesis
MTO
methanol-to-olens
RMB
ren min bi
WGS
water gas shift
Natural gas
Crude oil
Coal
1500
1000
500
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Year
Fig. 1. Prole of major energy production in China [2].
47
Coal
Water
WGS reactor
Acid gas
absorber
H2S concentration
tower
Tail gas
Water
Mill
Tail gas
Screen
Oxygen
from ASU
Water
Scrubber
Raw syngas
H 2S
Steam
Gasifier
&
Cooler
Radiant
Air
N2
Water
Convective
Cooler
Methanol
Waste water
Regenerator
Steam
Clean syngas
Quenching
tower
Water
Methanol
Lurgi
methanol
reactor
DMTO
reactor
Water
scrubber
Water
Purge gas
Unreacted
gas
NaOH
Fuel gas
Methanol
Dryer
Alkaline
tower
Waste water
Water
Ethylene
Propylene
C2 splitter
Atmospheric
distillation
column
Crude methanol
Pressure
distillation
column
C3 splitter
Bottom liquid
Depropanizer
C4=
Demethanizer
Dethanizer
Ethane
Propane
CO 2H2 ! CH3 OH
Table 1
Properties of coal in Yanzhou, China [20].
Proximate analysis (wt.%)
Moisture content
Fixed carbon
Volatile matter
Ash
Ash
Carbon
Hydrogen
Nitrogen
Sulfur
Oxygen
7.53
73.64
5.24
1.13
2.63
9.83
2CH3 OH ! C2 H4 2H2 O
3CH3 OH ! C3 H6 3H2 O
4CH3 OH ! C4 H8 4H2 O
48
Energy efficiency
CCR
Clean syngas
Acid gas
absorber
Product energyMW
All input energyMW
Tail gas
H2S concentration
tower
Water
Desorber
Tail gas
Water
scrubber
H2S
Crude syngas
Air
N2
S
Methanol
Waste water
Regenerator
CO2
CO2 transport
(Pipeline)
CO2 storage
(Saline acquifer)
49
the equipment investment. The ratios are shown in Table 3 and the
calculation follows Eq. (9) [3133]. In this paper, the capital investment was updated to 2012 prices by using the Chemical Engineering Plant Cost Index [34,35]. The currency exchange rate between
US$ and RMB was 6.2 in 2012 and the olens price was set to be
10,000 RMB/t [36].
X
EI
h EIrj
J
Sj
Srj
Table 3
Ratio factors for capital investment.
Component
(1) Direct investment
(1.1) Equipment
(1.2) Installation
(1.3) Instruments and controls
(1.4) Piping
(1.5) Electrical
(1.6) Buildings(including services)
(1.7) Land
(2) Indirect investment
(2.1) Engineering and supervision
(2.2) Construction expenses
(2.3) Contractors fee
(2.4) Contingency
(3) Fixed capital investment
(4) Working capital
(5) Total capital investment
!sf
X
TCI EI 1
RFi
8
!
9
where EI is the equipment investment, h is the domestic-made factor, EIrj is the reference equipment investment of unit j, Sj is the
practical scale of unit j, Srj is the reference scale of unit j, sf is the
scale factor, TCI is the total capital investment, RFi is the ratio factor
of capital investment of component i.
For calculation of the product cost, we made some assumptions
as listed in Table 4. The consumption of raw materials and utilities
was determined according to simulation results. Their corresponding costs were calculated on the basis of the average prices of 2012
in China [18]. Operating labor cost was calculated referring to
Hans work [13]. A straight-line method was adopted to calculate
the depreciation cost under the assumption of 20 years life time
and 4% salvage value. CO2 TS&M cost was calculated by Mantripragada and Rubins work [11]. The rest part of product cost was
calculated according to the ratio to product cost [31,32]. The product cost is dened as the sum of the above components as shown in
Eq. (10).
PC wCCS PC w=oCCS
Ew=oCCS EwCCS
100
48
24
57
29
71
5
48
43
19
33
477
80
557
Table 4
Assumptions for the estimation of product cost.
Component
Basis
(1) Coal
(2) Utilities
(3) Operating & Maintenance
(3.1) Operating labor
(3.2) Direct supervisory and
clerical labor
(3.3) Maintenance and repairs
(3.4) Operating supplies
(3.5) Laboratory charge
(4) Depreciation
(5) Plant overhead cost
(6) Administrative cost
(7) Distribution and selling
cost
(8) CO2 TS&M
(9) Product cost
10
MC
11
CCF
X
i
CFi
X
OP PC C D i OYi
12
where CCF is the cumulative cash ow, CFi is the cash ow of year i,
OP is the olens price, PC is the product cost, CD is the depreciation
cost, OYi is the olens yield of year i.
Table 2
Summary of investment data for main equipment components.
Unit
Benchmark
Scale (SrJ )
EIrJ (M$)
Refs.
ASU
Coal handing
CG
WGS
AGR
Oxygen supply
Daily coal input
Daily coal input
Material caloric value
Sulfur output
Pure CO2 captured
Syngas input
Methanol input
21.3 kg/s
27.4 kg/s
39.2 kg/s
1377 MW
29.3 mol/s
2064.4 mol/s
10,810 mol/s
62.5 kg/s
0.50
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.60
0.50
0.65
0.80
0.65
0.65
0.65
0.65
1.00
45.70
29.10
78.00
39.80
67.30
32.80
20.40
223.06
[22]
[22]
[22]
[28]
[28]
[28]
[22]
[29]
MS
MTO
50
Table 5
Simulation results of main streams in the CTO process.
Streama
Coal (1)
O2
AR
H2O
CO
CO2
H2S
H2
CH4
CH3OH
C2H6
C2H4
C3H8
C3H6
C4H10
C4H8
C4H6
C5H12
Molar ow
(kmol/hr)
Mass ow
358,295
(kg/hr)
Temperature
314
(K)
Pressure
0.1
(Mpa)
Enthalpy
1128.52
(MW)
a
Water
(2)
Oxygen
(3)
Syngas
(4)
Shift
syngas
(5)
N2 (6)
Tail gas
(7)
Clean
syngas
(8)
Methanol
(9)
Product
gas (10)
C4=
(11)
Ethylene
(12)
Propylene
(13)
100.00
10,708
1.39
95.00
3.61
10,358
0.87
1.03
19.07
40.47
11.67
0.34
26.55
36,359
0.85
0.98
01.61
18.71
31.56
0.32
45.97
37,676
100.00
4893
30.21
0.99
0.66
67.10
1.02
0.02
16,410
1.00
0.81
27.29
3.46
67.44
25,433
0.11
10.18
0.01
89.70
8017
69.59
0.06
0.44
3.16
1.11
0.12
0.25
13.75
0.57
8.90
0.04
1.63
0.38
11,002
0.74
3.50
2.56
92.61
0.21
0.38
148
0.18
99.82
1499
0.38
99.62
883
192,926
333,886
771,303
794,423
137,070
633,439
283,069
245,440
245,440
8253
42,064
37,184
314
383
425
363
293
302
302
318
763
326
182
315
0.1
4.1
2.76
5.00
0.2
0.2
2.78
0.40
0.22
0.55
0.20
1.73
842.74
6.58
1347.27
1535.44
0.22
1206.44
308.34
542.73
463.06
0.30
19.74
4.68
In order to simplify the table, some minor streams are not included, such as water & slag stream in CG unit, S stream in AGR unit, and purge gas stream in MS unit.
51
CCR 60%
CCR 80%
CCR 95%
N2
CO2
Tail gas
N2
CO2
Tail gas
N2
CO2
Tail gas
100.00
2350
65,832
293
0.2
0.10
0.04
0.02
0.75
98.50
0.69
0.03
6958
303,295
293
15
773.01
34.93
2.34
0.82
60.18
1.73
6909
258,877
302
0.2
436.40
100.00
1478
27,397
293
0.2
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.59
98.90
0.43
0.03
9255
404,681
293
15
976.51
32.12
4.98
1.66
57.30
3.94
3240
119,068
302
0.2
195.44
100.00
391
10,953
293
0.2
0.02
0.03
0.02
0.54
99.00
0.38
0.03
10,984
480,601
293
15
1226.38
48.98
17.39
5.31
14.73
13.59
925
26,715
302
0.2
14.29
Table 7
Mass and energy performance results from the techno-economic model for MTO and CTO plants at different CCRs.
Item
MTO plant
CCR 60%
CCR 70%
CCR 80%
CCR 90%
CCR 95%
Input
Coal (Mt/y)/(MW LHV)a
Methanol (Mt/y)/(MW LHV)b
Net Electricity input (MWe)c
Net Steam input (MWth)c
ASU (MWe/MWth)
CG (MWe/MWth)
WGS (MWe/MWth)
AGR or CCS (MWe/MWth)
MS (MWe/MWth)
MTO (MWe/MWth)
Total energy input (MW)
1.80/1250
36.61
123.98
36.61/123.98
1410.59
2.87/2800.24
146.21
212.75
144.57/
70.74/
/15.10
9.86/26.59
25.91/77.28
36.61/123.98
3159.20
2.87/2800.24
172.54
212.75
144.57/
70.74/
/15.10
36.19/26.59
25.91/77.28
36.61/123.98
3185.53
2.87/2800.24
179.10
212.75
144.57/
70.74/
/15.10
42.75/26.59
25.91/77.28
36.61/123.98
3192.09
2.87/2800.24
187.58
212.75
144.57/
70.74/
/15.10
51.23/26.59
25.91/77.28
36.61/123.98
3200.57
2.87/2800.24
204.14
212.75
144.57/
70.74/
/15.10
67.79/26.59
25.91/77.28
36.61/123.98
3217.13
2.87/2800.24
215.93
212.75
144.57/
70.74/
/15.10
79.58/26.59
25.91/77.28
36.61/123.98
3228.92
Output
Ethylene (Mt/y)/(MW LHV)b
Propylene (Mt/y)/(MW LHV)b
C4=(Mt/y)/(MW LHV)b
Product energy (MW LHV)
CO2 emissions (Mt/y)
Energy efciency (%, LHV basis)
0.33/538.54
0.30/489.57
0.07/114.24
1142.35
Negligible
80.98
0.33/538.54
0.30/489.57
0.07/114.24
1142.35
4.05
36.16
0.33/538.54
0.30/489.57
0.07/114.24
1142.35
1.39
35.86
0.33/538.54
0.30/489.57
0.07/114.24
1142.35
1.04
35.79
0.33/538.54
0.30/489.57
0.07/114.24
1142.35
0.69
35.69
0.33/538.54
0.30/489.57
0.07/114.24
1142.35
0.35
35.50
0.33/538.54
0.30/489.57
0.07/114.24
1142.35
0.17
35.38
90
70
1.8
1.6
1.4
60
1.2
50
1
40
0.8
30
0.6
20
0.4
10
0.2
80
0
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
CCR (%)
2
Electricity consumption for ammonia cold
Electricity consumption for compression
CCS electricity consumption
CO2 emissions
40
Increase of CCS
WGS
ASU
35
30
MTO
AGR
MS
CG
25
20
15
10
5
0
0
60
70
80
90
95
CCR (%)
Fig. 4. The relationship between CCR and electricity consumption.
Fig. 5. Distribution of total capital investment for CTO plants at different CCRs.
52
6000
CO2 TS&M
Administrative cost
Depreciation
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
9000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
10
-1000
1000
0
MTO
CCR 80%, which divides CTO plants with CCS into low capture conguration and high capture conguration. The big change could
also be found in the mitigation cost and energy consumption of
CCS, as shown in Figs. 7 and 4. Thus, CTO with this carbon capture
conguration is appropriate choice for olens production considering energy penalties, economic performance, and environmental
protection. The product cost of the MTO plant is about
7896 RMB/t, which is much higher than that of the CTO plant with
CCS. The methanol cost is the biggest part, amounting to 78.1%, followed by the utilities cost of 6.7% and depreciation cost of 6.0%.
As shown in Fig. 8, the plant with the highest cumulative cash
ow is the CTO plant without CCS, followed by the ones with
CCS and the MTO plant. The cumulative cash ow decreases from
5.0 109 RMB to 3.5 109 RMB as CCR increasing from 0% to
95%. While the cash ow of the MTO plant is only 2.9 109 RMB.
Although the capital investments of CTO plants are about 2 times
larger than that of MTO plant, the ratio of cumulative cash ow
to the MTO plant is 1.21.7. In Fig. 8, we could also nd the
break-even point and the payback period. The payback period is
about 8 y for the plant without CCS, about 9 y for the plant with
CCS, and about 7 y for the MTO plant.
4.2.2. Effects of plant scale, carbon tax, and feedstock price
As discussed above, we select an appropriate CCR equal to 80%
for case study of the effect of production scale, carbon tax, and
feedstock price on its economic performance.
20
23
Year
-2000
CCR 0% CCR 60% CCR 70% CCR 80% CCR 90% CCR 95%
Fig. 6. Distribution of product cost for MTO and CTO plants at different CCRs.
15
As production scale is one of the most important factor for economic performance, we therefore study the effect of this factor on
the capital investment and the product cost of the CTO plant with
CCS. According to the results, it is clear to nd that the capital
investment will decrease as the plant capacity varies from
0.3 Mt/y to 2.0 Mt/y, as shown in Fig. 9. The total capital investment of a 2.0 Mt/y plant is about 46.8% of a 0.3 Mt/y plant. Since
depreciation is a important factor, the product cost also decreases
with increasing plant capacity. However, the production scale
shows less effect on product cost. For example, the product cost
of a 2.0 Mt/y plant is about 19.3% less than a 0.3 Mt/y plant, as
shown in Fig. 10. For the MTO plant, the effect of economies of
scale is relatively small since the capital investment of the MTO
plant is less than half of the CTO plant.
As the largest developing country, China is facing increasing
criticism for the largest greenhouse gas emissions. Chinas 12th
ve-year plan clearly promised that a carbon trading market would
be gradually established and CO2 emissions intensity be reduced at
the same time. The city of Shenzhen launched a carbon trading
scheme on 18 June 2013, Chinas rst market for compulsory carbon trading. The scheme covers 635 industrial companies and
some public buildings accounting for about 40% of the citys emissions [40]. This means that there will be an explicit cost associated
with CO2 emissions in the near future in China.
The effect of increasing carbon tax on the product cost is shown
in Fig. 11. It is obvious that when carbon tax exceeds 250 RMB/t
the product cost of the CTO plant without CCS is higher than that
of the MTO plant, while the product cost of the CTO plant with
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
0.3
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
CCR (%)
Fig. 7. Relationship between CCR and mitigation cost.
95
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
2.0
Capacity (Mt/y)
Fig. 9. Total capital investment of the CTO plant with CCS varying with different
capacities.
9000
Incremental cost of CCS
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
5. Conclusions
Fig. 10. Product cost of the CTO plant with CCS varying with different capacities.
9000
8500
8000
7500
7000
6500
CTO without CCS
MTO
5500
5000
0
30
60
90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 400
15000
CTO without CCS
13000
MTO
11000
shown in Fig. 12. This means that the product cost of the MTO
plant is highly affected by feedstock price and that for CTO plants
the inuence is relatively small. Besides, coal price is more stable
than methanol which is mostly determined by oil price in the past
several years [18]. Although MTO plants have advantages of low
capital investment and low environmental impact, their economic
performances are easily intervened by methanol price. In other
words, MTO plants have less anti-risk capability of market uctuation than CTO plants in China. Expanding development of CTO
plants with CCS should be encouraged since it could relieve the
conict between the supply and demand of olens, meanwhile reduce CO2 emissions, and manifest a strong anti-risk capability to
the raw material market.
2.0
Capacity (Mt/a)
6000
53
9000
7000
Acknowledgments
5000
3000
200/800
400/1600
600/2400
800/3200
1000/4000
1200/4800
CCS is much lower than that of the MTO plant when carbon tax is
as high as 400 RMB/t. For the CTO plant with CCS, the break-even
carbon tax between CTO plants with and without CCS is about
150 RMB/t, roughly equivalent to the current carbon price. Thus,
the CTO plant with CCS could be rstly built to demonstrate the
potential application of CCS technologies from the aspects of environmental protection and overall economic performance. It is
important to underline that, if the carbon price increases up to
300400 RMB/t in the next few years, the application of CCS technologies for large-scale CTO plants will become very protable.
The effect of feedstock price on product cost of the MTO plant is
about 2 times that of the CTO plants with and without CCS, as
The authors are grateful for nancial support from the China
NSF Key Project (No. 21136003), the China NSF Project (No.
21306056), the National Basic Research Program (No.
2012CB720504; 2014CB744306), the Fundamental Research Funds
for the Central Universities (No. 2013ZP0010), and Guangdong
Province NSF Team Project (No. S2011030001366).
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