The Weather and Climate Authority

EL NIO UPDATE
& Climate Outlook
(September 2015 February 2016)
Presented by:
Anthony Joseph R. Lucero
OIC, CLIMPS

Prepared by:
Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)
CLIMATOLOGY & AGROMETEOROLOGY DIVISION (CAD)
Updated: 28 August 2015

CONTENTS
Updates on El Nio
Monthly Rainfall Forecast, Temperature and
Tropical Cyclone Forecast (September 2015
February 2016)

Dry Spell/Drought Outlook

Summary

GLOBAL

ADVISORIES

INTERNATIONAL PREDICTION
CENTERS

As of: 15 June 2015

SUMMARY
The tropical Pacific atmosphere and ocean are currently at
moderate El Nio levels.
The majority of ENSO climate models suggest that tropical
temperatures are likely to continue warming, and possibly reach
strong El Nio levels in the coming months.

CPC/ International
Research Institute (IRI)
As of : 20 August 2015

El Nio strengthened further to a strong level beginning

around mid-July;

Bureau of Meteorology
(BOM)-Australia
As of : 18 August 2015

Mature El Nio in the tropical Pacific region

All surveyed models indicate that El Nio will continue to
strengthen, and persist into early 2016.

Tokyo Climate Center/JMA

-Japan
As of : 10 August 2015

El Nio conditions continue in the equatorial Pacific.

It is likely that El Nio conditions will continue until the Northern
Hemisphere winter (DJF 2015/16).

APEC Climate Center,

Busan, S. Korea
As of : 25 August 2015

further strengthening of the El Nio, with the peak of Nino3.4

index being expected during the last quarter of 2015;
Positive SST anomalies in the CEEP are expected to be enhanced
through February 2016

The chance of El Nio is greater than 90% through Northern

Hemisphere winter and is near 70% through spring (Mar-Apr-May)
2016.

Strong El Nio is now in progress in the tropical Pacific!

Nio Region SST Departures

(oC) Recent Evolution
The latest weekly SST
departures are:
As of Aug. 17

Nio
Nio
Nio
Nio

4
3.4
3
1+2

0.9C
2.0C
2.2C
2.0C

As of Aug. 24, 2015

1.1C
2.1C
2.2C
1.7C

CPC/IRI Probabilistic ENSO Outlook

Updated: 24 August 2015
The chance of El Nio is greater than 90% through 2nd quarter (MAM) 2016
and is near 70% through AMJ 2016.

IRI/CPC Pacific Nio

3.4 SST Model Outlook

Almost all of the models

indicate Nio 3.4 SST
anomalies will remain
greater than or equal to
+0.5C through spring 2016.
All multi-model averages
suggest that Nio 3.4 will be
above +1.5C (a strong El
Nio) during late 2015 into
early 2016.
Figure provided by the International Research
Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society
(updated 14 July 2015).

About our Rainfall Maps

For: RAINFALL OUTLOOK (September 2015 February 2016)

CLIMATE OUTLOOK
(SEPTEMBER 2015 FEBRUARY 2016)

Updated:
August 28, 2015

WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT MIGHT AFFECT THE

COUNTRY DURING THE PERIOD
(Sep 2015-February 2016)

SEPTEMBER 2015
Southwest (SW) Monsoon
Intertropical Convergence
Zone (ITCZ)
Low Pressure Area (LPA)
Ridge of High Pressure Area

Tropical Cyclones

OCTOBER* - FEBRUARY 2016

*Transition SW to Northeast
(NE) Monsoon
NE Monsoon
Tail-end of Cold Front
Easterly wave
Intertropical Convergence
Zone (ITCZ)
Low Pressure Area (LPA)
Ridge of High Pressure Area
Tropical Cyclones

Monthly Rainfall Forecast

Normal (mm)
(1981-2010)

September 2015

Forecast (mm)

% Normal

Monthly Rainfall Forecast

Normal (mm)
(1981-2010)

October 2015

Forecast (mm)

% Normal

Monthly Rainfall Forecast

Normal (mm)
(1981-2010)

November 2015

Forecast (mm)

% Normal

Monthly Rainfall Forecast

Normal (mm)
(1981-2010)

December 2015

Forecast (mm)

% Normal

Monthly Rainfall Forecast

Normal (mm)
(1981-2010)

January 2016

Forecast (mm)

% Normal

Monthly Rainfall Forecast

Normal (mm)
(1981-2010)

February 2016

Forecast (mm)

% Normal

RAINFALL OUTLOOK (SEPTEMBER 2015 FEBRUARY 2016)

Dry conditions will

likely affect most
parts of country
starting September
2015.

Forecast Rainfall Analysis in %N (September-February 2015-16)

PROVINCE
CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR)
ABRA
BENGUET
IFUGAO
KALINGA
APAYAO
MOUNTAIN PROVINCE
REGION I
ILOCOS NORTE
ILOCOS SUR
LA UNION
PANGASINAN
REGION II
BATANES
CAGAYAN
ISABELA
NUEVA VIZCAYA
QUIRINO
REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON)
BATAAN
BULACAN
NUEVA ECIJA
PAMPANGA
TARLAC
ZAMBALES
AURORA
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION
METRO MANILA
REGION IV-A (CALABARZON)
BATANGAS
CAVITE
LAGUNA
RIZAL
QUEZON
REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA)
MARINDUQUE
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO
ORIENTAL MINDORO
ROMBLON
PALAWAN
REGION V (BICOL)
ALBAY
CAMARINES NORTE
CAMARINES SUR
CATANDUANES
MASBATE
SORSOGON

SEPTEMBER

OCTOBER

NOVEMBER DECEMBER

JANUARY

FEBRUARY

65.7
92.1
119.5
73.5
44.3
100.1

75.4
16.7
15.3
64.5
106.6
32.8

42.9
90.6
97.2
68.9
67.0
94.2

3.5
5.3
2.2
4.8
17.7
1.8

4.5
5.8
14.7
11.8
27.4
9.7

51.4
68.0
102.6
64.6
49.4
97.7

34.1
63.3
30.0
56.7

115.3
37.1
32.8
15.2

67.4
69.4
60.2
26.2

8.7
5.0
0.7
9.8

8.3
1.9
2.8
10.9

15.3
64.9
41.8
1.9

66.6
27.1
42.4
115.3
91.7

44.5
95.2
39.3
3.4
13.6

54.8
50.2
39.1
62.4
55.2

133.8
53.2
30.6
8.2
20.6

133.7
54.9
38.7
22.2
43.0

72.5
43.7
30.5
56.1
66.7

55.8
47.1
51.8
49.3
64.5
59.7
58.5

9.5
24.1
11.0
10.7
7.1
12.6
27.9

41.6
56.0
44.4
52.3
53.9
52.1
62.3

21.7
17.5
11.4
17.9
14.6
15.1
30.7

67.0
5.0
8.8
26.2
18.9
44.7
45.5

5.9
12.7
6.7
2.2
0.1
1.5
56.5

50.9

29.5

29.3

8.3

13.2

27.4

91.5
66.6
58.1
54.9
75.2

7.7
14.3
28.9
41.6
40.1

71.7
32.2
28.8
44.0
55.2

55.0
26.1
16.7
14.7
39.4

54.0
55.8
30.1
2.9
53.2

41.6
25.2
38.8
33.5
58.1

66.0
63.0
46.3
45.1
71.3

26.6
11.6
18.4
30.4
45.4

33.2
34.2
26.0
29.6
40.0

32.4
28.0
23.0
35.5
17.7

63.2
36.0
36.7
31.9
14.0

57.3
31.6
39.9
42.7
10.8

75.7
70.4
67.2
40.1
77.5
74.6

29.7
18.2
20.4
18.4
26.3
21.7

60.6
61.4
59.2
61.1
65.5
68.6

52.2
46.5
47.2
39.9
49.6
56.6

51.4
60.8
53.8
26.2
13.9
31.0

41.0
54.9
45.7
50.0
37.2
40.9

PROVINCE
REGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS)
AKLAN
ANTIQUE
CAPIZ
GUIMARAS
ILOILO
NEGROS ISLAND REGION
NEGROS OCCIDENTAL
NEGROS ORIENTAL
REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS)
BOHOL
CEBU
SIQUIJOR
REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS)
BILIRAN
EASTERN SAMAR
LEYTE
NORTHERN SAMAR
SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR)
SOUTHERN LEYTE
REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA)
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE
ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR
ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY
REGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO)
BUKIDNON
CAMIGUIN
LANAO DEL NORTE
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL
MISAMIS ORIENTAL
REGION XI (DAVAO REGION)
CAMPOSTELA VALLEY
DAVAO
DAVAO DEL SUR
DAVAO ORIENTAL
REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)
SOUTH COTABATO
COTABATO
SARANGANI
SULTAN KUDARAT
REGION XIII- CARAGA
AGUSAN DEL NORTE
AGUSAN DEL SUR
SURIGAO DEL NORTE
SURIGAO DEL SUR
ARMM
BASILAN
MAGUINDANAO
LANAO DEL SUR
SULU

SEPTEMBER

OCTOBER

NOVEMBER DECEMBER

JANUARY

FEBRUARY

54.3
56.9
64.3
65.1
63.6

19.0
18.0
19.1
28.6
22.8

21.1
28.7
29.0
48.6
38.1

23.4
20.6
28.2
30.8
28.5

20.6
7.3
24.0
5.7
13.6

34.0
31.2
33.2
33.4
33.5

67.3
81.9

39.3
35.3

47.9
50.3

39.2
34.0

16.9
16.8

30.8
42.4

64.0
55.9
91.8

73.3
56.7
61.8

51.1
43.2
53.0

53.8
47.0
43.2

8.6
28.4
13.8

38.0
40.3
41.2

56.6
58.8
56.5
59.1
58.9
64.1

41.6
47.5
39.3
22.6
42.9
44.3

67.9
50.6
56.3
72.0
63.9
59.2

65.9
37.6
65.8
59.6
54.4
69.0

24.2
17.7
36.2
5.0
15.7
21.7

40.0
29.6
43.4
30.2
31.3
46.4

57.1
47.9
48.1

31.2
36.0
26.6

52.2
55.0
54.4

57.3
60.1
56.8

28.5
35.0
32.8

46.1
47.7
51.3

83.1
87.1
70.7
67.8
89.0

93.5
98.8
79.7
66.5
105.7

64.8
47.1
41.5
49.3
46.5

45.6
62.9
58.6
65.6
59.1

42.8
0.3
37.2
30.9
16.3

75.3
33.1
34.4
31.8
43.3

76.8
79.8
83.6
82.5

73.3
83.3
87.0
71.9

88.7
91.5
74.0
78.9

69.6
55.6
51.4
76.9

48.2
46.7
47.4
51.5

91.3
95.3
67.2
78.7

47.7
73.6
54.7
36.3

58.4
81.2
63.2
48.4

68.9
71.6
64.7
75.0

48.5
41.6
54.3
45.5

51.6
54.2
47.3
56.8

59.7
74.5
52.1
69.0

62.7
65.0
80.4
70.3

81.6
73.8
75.0
66.6

94.8
91.4
85.0
84.1

76.9
71.3
85.8
89.1

13.3
34.7
30.5
39.6

84.1
92.5
78.7
82.9

48.1
41.6
72.5
49.4

24.2
53.8
83.4
24.7

34.5
72.9
45.8
30.3

45.1
44.1
49.7
37.1

22.7
57.5
44.6
17.9

54.7
71.5
47.7
54.0

DRY SPELL &

DROUGHT OUTLOOK
(SEPTEMBER 2015 FEBRUARY 2016)

Updated:
August 28, 2015

Dry Condition/Dry spell / drought

assessment and Outlook
Dry condition two (2) consecutive months of below normal (21%-60% reduction
from average) rainfall conditions
Dry spell = three (3) consecutive months of below normal (21%-60% reduction from
average) rainfall conditions
Or
two (2) consecutive months of way below normal (more than 60% reduction from
average) rainfall conditions.

Drought - three (3) consecutive months of way below normal (>60% reduction from
average)
or
five (5) consecutive months of below normal (21%-60% reduction from average)
rainfall condition.

OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES

SEPTEMBER 2015
PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITION
LUZON (9)

PANGASINAN, BATAAN, BULACAN, NUEVA ECIJA,

PAMPANGA, TARLAC, METRO MANILA, CAVITE,
ROMBLON

VISAYAS (3)

CAPIZ, CEBU

MINDANAO (1)

NORTH COTABATO

PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY SPELL

LUZON (5)

BATANES, ISABELA, CAMARINES SUR, MASBATE,

SORSOGON

VISAYAS (5)

E. SAMAR, LEYTE, N. SAMAR, SAMAR (WESTERN

SAMAR), S. LEYTE

MINDANAO
(11)

ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE, MISAMIS

OCCIDENTAL, COMPOSTELA VALLEY,
SOUTH COTABATO, SARANGANI
SULTAN KUDARAT, AGUSAN DEL NORTE
SURIGAO DEL SUR, BASILAN
MAGUINDANAO, SULU

PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DROUGHT

LUZON (5)

AURORA, LAGUNA, QUEZON, CAMARINES

NORTE, CATANDUANES

VISAYAS (1)

BOHOL

OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES

END OF YEAR 2015
PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITION
LUZON (3)

APAYAO, ILOCOS NORTE, CAGAYAN

MINDANAO (6)

BUKIDNON, CAMIGUIN, MISAMIS ORIENTAL,DAVAO

DEL SUR, NORTH COTABATO, LANAO DEL SUR

PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY SPELL

LUZON (7)

ABRA, KALINGA, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO

BATANGAS, PALAWAN, ALBAY

VISAYAS (3)

NEGROS ORIENTAL, SIQUIJOR, BILIRAN

MINDANAO (4)

ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR, ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY,

LANAO DEL NORTE, DAVAO ORIENTAL

PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DROUGHT

LUZON (25)

ILOCOS SUR, LA UNION, PANGASINAN, ISABELA,

BATAAN, BULACAN, NUEVA ECIJA, PAMPANGA,
TARLAC, ZAMBALES, AURORA, METRO MANILA,
CAVITE, LAGUNA, RIZAL, QUEZON, MARINDUQUE,
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO, ORIENTAL, MINDORO,
ROMBLON, CAMARINES NORTE,CAMARINES SUR,
CATANDUANES,MASBATE, SORSOGON

VISAYAS (13)

AKLAN,ANTIQUE,CAPIZ,GUIMARAS,ILOILO, NEGROS
OCCIDENTAL,BOHOL,CEBU,EASTERN SAMAR,
LEYTE,NORTHERN SAMAR,SAMAR (WESTERN
SAMAR), SOUTHERN LEYTE

MINDANAO (8)

ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE, MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL.

SOUTH COTABATO, SARANGANI, SULTAN KUDARAT
BASILAN, MAGUINDANAO, SULU

OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES

END OF FEBRUARY 2016
PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITION
MINDANAO (1)

SURIGAO DEL NORTE

PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY SPELL

LUZON (2)

BENGUET, CAGAYAN

MINDANAO (4)

BUKIDNON, DAVAO DEL SUR, NORTH COTABATO, LANAO

DEL SUR

PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DROUGHT

LUZON (35)

ABRA, KALINGA, APAYAO, ILOCOS NORTE, ILOCOS SUR, LA

UNION, PANGASINAN, ISABELA, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO
BATAAN, BULACAN, NUEVA ECIJA, PAMPANGA, TARLAC,
ZAMBALES, AURORA, METRO MANILA, BATANGAS, CAVITE,
LAGUNA, RIZAL, QUEZON, MARINDUQUE
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO, ORIENTAL MINDORO, ROMBLON,
PALAWAN, ALBAY, CAMARINES NORTE, CAMARINES SUR,
CATANDUANES, MASBATE, SORSOGON

VISAYAS (16)

AKLAN, ANTIQUE, CAPIZ, GUIMARAS,ILOILO

NEGROS OCCIDENTAL, BOHOL, CEBU, NEGROS ORIENTAL,
SIQUIJOR, BILIRAN, EASTERN SAMAR, LEYTE, NORTHERN
SAMAR, SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR),SOUTHERN LEYTE

MINDANAO
(14)

ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE, ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR,

ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY, CAMIGUIN, LANAO DEL NORTE,
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL, MISAMIS ORIENTAL, DAVAO
ORIENTAL, SOUTH COTABATO, SARANGANI, SULTAN
KUDARAT, BASILAN, MAGUINDANAO, SULU

September 2015-February 2016

SEVERITY OF DROUGHT*
SEVERITY OF DROUGHT
September 2015 February 2016
EXTREME DRUGHT
SEVERE DROUGHT
MODERATE DROUGHT

How severe?

*Assessment is based on the deviation of forecast

dryness or wetness from normal at a given time scale

Central Luzon, Rizal, Laguna, Cavite, Camarines Sur, Albay,

Sorsogon, Catanduanes, MIMAROPA, Panay Island, Negros
Occidental, Cebu, Leyte, Zamboanga Provinces, Basilan,
Sulu, Tawi-tawi, parts of Quezon, mainland Cagayan Valley,
and mainland ARMM
SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS in NCR & Biliran

FORECAST WATERSHED RAINFALL for selected Dams and

Lakes in (mm) and (%N)

FORECAST RAINFALL OVER SELECTED DAM AREAS

SEP 2015-FEB. 2016 in (mm) and (%N)

way below normal

below normal
near normal
way below
normal
above
normal
below normal
near normal
above normal

FORECAST RAINFALL OVER SELECTED RIVER BASINS

in millimeter and percent of normal (%N)

way below normal

below normal
near normal
above normal

FORECAST MEAN TEMPERATURE (Sept.- Oct.

Mountainous Luzon Slightly cooler

Lowland Luzon Slightly warmer
Lowland Visayas Near average
Lowland Mindanao Slightly warmer
Mountainous Mindanao Slightly cooler

Mountainous Luzon Slightly cooler

Lowland Luzon Near average
Lowland Visayas Slightly warmer
Lowland Mindanao Slightly warmer
Mountainous Mindanao Near average

2015)

(15-22oC)
(20-32oC)
(22.5-33oC)
(22.5-33oC)
(18-29.5oC)

FORECAST MEAN TEMPERATURE (Nov. Dec. 2015)

Mountainous Luzon Slightly cooler

Lowland Luzon Slightly warmer
Lowland Visayas Slightly warmer
Lowland Mindanao Slightly warmer
Mountainous Mindanao Near average

(15-23.5oC)
(20-33.5oC)
(22.5-33oC)
(23-33oC)
(17-30oC)

Mountainous Luzon Near average

Lowland Luzon Slightly warmer
Lowland Visayas Slightly warmer
Lowland Mindanao Slightly warmer
Mountainous Mindanao Slightly warmer

(14.5-23.5oC)
(17.5-33.5oC)
(23-32oC)
(22.5-33.5oC)
(17.5-30.5oC)

FORECAST MEAN TEMPERATURE ( January 2016)

Mountainous Luzon slightly cooler

Lowland Luzon Slightly warmer
Lowland Visayas Slightly warmer
Lowland Mindanao Slightly warmer
Mountainous Mindanao Near average

DRY DAYS
FORECAST

DRY DAY a day with 1

mm or less

MONTH
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN2016

ARMM

CAR
22
22
24
27
30

NCR
13
23
25
28
30

NIR
6
24
27
30
29

R01
19
21
24
26
29

R02
9
25
28
31
31

R03
18
22
19
24
25

R04-A
8
25
27
29
28

R04-B
16
22
19
20
22

R05
22
23
23
25
28

R06
23
20
15
16
20

R07
23
21
22
25
30

R08
24
21
23
24
27

R09
25
17
14
14
18

R10
23
22
20
24
28

R11
20
18
22
24
27

R12
24
22
21
23
24

R13
23
23
23
27
28

22
17
17
16
17

Tropical Cyclone FORECAST

MONTH
September
October
November
December
January
February

Forecast
2 to 4
2 or 3
1 or 2
0 or 1
0 or 1
0 or 1

Average tropical cyclone tracks (1948-2005)

SUMMARY
Consensus ENSO prediction indicate continuation of strong El
Nio conditions during the August-October 2015 season in
progress, with the event lasting into MAM 2016.
Significant reduction in rainfall is predicted beginning
September 2015 to February 2016 over most parts of the
country;
Moderate to severe drought conditions will be likely during the
forecast period;
Slightly warmer than average temperature is expected during
the forecast period; slightly cooler than average over
mountainous Luzon;

5-8 tropical cyclones may develop/enter the Philippine Area of

Responsibility (PAR) until Feb. 2016;

SUMMARY
Drought / Dry Spell Outlook for September 2015 as of 25 August 2015 rainfall
assessment:
o 13 provinces likely to experience dry condition;
o 21 provinces likely to experience dry spell;
o 6 provinces likely to experience drought
OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES SEPTEMBER 2015

PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITION

LUZON (9)

PANGASINAN, BATAAN, BULACAN, NUEVA ECIJA, PAMPANGA,

TARLAC, METRO MANILA, CAVITE, ROMBLON

VISAYAS (3)

CAPIZ, CEBU

MINDANAO (1)

NORTH COTABATO

PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY SPELL

LUZON (5)

BATANES, ISABELA, CAMARINES SUR, MASBATE, SORSOGON

VISAYAS (5)

E. SAMAR, LEYTE, N. SAMAR, SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR), S.

LEYTE

MINDANAO (11)

ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE, MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL,

COMPOSTELA VALLEY, SOUTH COTABATO, SARANGANI
SULTAN KUDARAT, AGUSAN DEL NORTE, SURIGAO DEL SUR,
BASILAN, MAGUINDANAO, SULU
PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DROUGHT

LUZON (5)

AURORA, LAGUNA, QUEZON, CAMARINES NORTE,

CATANDUANES

VISAYAS (1)

BOHOL

SUMMARY
Drought / Dry Spell Outlook at the end of Dec. 2015
o 9 provinces likely to experience dry condition;
o 14 provinces likely to experience dry spell;
o 46 provinces likely to experience drought
OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES END OF YEAR 2015
PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITION
LUZON (3)

APAYAO, ILOCOS NORTE, CAGAYAN

MINDANAO (6)

BUKIDNON, CAMIGUIN, MISAMIS ORIENTAL,DAVAO DEL SUR, NORTH

COTABATO, LANAO DEL SUR
PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY SPELL

LUZON (7)

ABRA, KALINGA, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO, BATANGAS, PALAWAN, ALBAY

VISAYAS (3)

NEGROS ORIENTAL, SIQUIJOR, BILIRAN

MINDANAO (4)

ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR, ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY, LANAO DEL NORTE, DAVAO

ORIENTAL
PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DROUGHT

LUZON (25)

ILOCOS SUR, LA UNION, PANGASINAN, ISABELA, BATAAN, BULACAN, NUEVA

ECIJA, PAMPANGA, TARLAC, ZAMBALES, AURORA, METRO MANILA, CAVITE,
LAGUNA, RIZAL, QUEZON, MARINDUQUE, OCCIDENTAL MINDORO, ORIENTAL,
MINDORO, ROMBLON, CAMARINES NORTE,CAMARINES SUR, CATANDUANES,
MASBATE, SORSOGON

VISAYAS (13)

AKLAN,ANTIQUE,CAPIZ,GUIMARAS,ILOILO, NEGROS
OCCIDENTAL,BOHOL,CEBU,EASTERN SAMAR, LEYTE, NORTHERN SAMAR,SAMAR
(WESTERN SAMAR), SOUTHERN LEYTE

MINDANAO (8)

ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE, MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL. SOUTH COTABATO,

SARANGANI, SULTAN KUDARAT, BASILAN, MAGUINDANAO, SULU

SUMMARY
Drought / Dry Spell Outlook at the end of forecast period (Feb. 2016)
o 2 provinces likely to experience dry condition;
o 1 province likely to experience dry spell;
o 65 provinces likely to experience drought, some of which might suffer
moderate to severe drought.
OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES
END OF FEBRUARY 2016
PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITION
MINDANAO (1)

SURIGAO DEL NORTE

PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY SPELL

LUZON (2)

BENGUET, CAGAYAN

MINDANAO (4)

BUKIDNON, DAVAO DEL SUR, NORTH COTABATO, LANAO DEL SUR

PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DROUGHT

LUZON (35)

ABRA, KALINGA, APAYAO, ILOCOS NORTE, ILOCOS SUR, LA UNION, PANGASINAN,

ISABELA, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO
BATAAN, BULACAN, NUEVA ECIJA, PAMPANGA, TARLAC, ZAMBALES, AURORA, METRO
MANILA, BATANGAS, CAVITE, LAGUNA, RIZAL, QUEZON, MARINDUQUE
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO, ORIENTAL MINDORO, ROMBLON, PALAWAN, ALBAY,
CAMARINES NORTE, CAMARINES SUR, CATANDUANES, MASBATE, SORSOGON

VISAYAS (16)

AKLAN, ANTIQUE, CAPIZ, GUIMARAS,ILOILO

NEGROS OCCIDENTAL, BOHOL, CEBU, NEGROS ORIENTAL, SIQUIJOR, BILIRAN, EASTERN
SAMAR, LEYTE, NORTHERN SAMAR, SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR),SOUTHERN LEYTE

MINDANAO (14)

ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE, ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR, ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY, CAMIGUIN,

LANAO DEL NORTE, MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL, MISAMIS ORIENTAL, DAVAO ORIENTAL,
SOUTH COTABATO, SARANGANI, SULTAN KUDARAT, BASILAN, MAGUINDANAO, SULU

PAGASA will continue to closely

monitor the situation and
updates/advisories shall be
issued as appropriate.

Use water
wisely!

The Weather and Climate Authority

MARAMING
SALAMAT!

Last Three Month SST, OLR and 925hp Wind Anom.

- Positive SSTA strengthened and extended from the South American coast line to the central equatorial Pacific in
the last three months.
- From May to July, negative OLR anomalies persisted over the central and eastern Pacific and westerly low-level
winds prevailed across most of the equatorial Pacific.

55

SST,D20 and 925hp

Wind anomalies in July
1982

1997

2015

56

MJJ 1982

MJJ 1997

MJJ 2015

Actual Rainfall in mm. & % of Normal for Nov 2014 June 2015

Actual Rainfall for July 2015

Normal RR(mm)
(1981-2010)

Actual Rainfall

Observed (mm)

% Normal

Actual Rainfall for August 1-25, 2015

Normal RR(mm)
(1981-2010)

Actual Rainfall

Observed (mm)

% Normal