Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
CONTENTS
India ..............................................................................................................18
APPENDIX
Major Market News ............................................................................ 28-35
Greater China ......................................................................................... 28-30
North Asia ..................................................................................................... 31
South Asia ................................................................................................ 32-33
India................................................................................................................. 34
Australasia ..................................................................................................... 35
Contacts ................................................................................................ 36-37
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
REGIONAL OVERVIEW
The real estate investment market in the region continued to benefit from the
improving sentiment and the gradual economic recovery seen in the second
half of 2009. The massive flow of liquidity and the ease of credit initiated by
a series of fiscal and monetary stimulus measures not only kept borrowing
rates at low levels, but also underpinned investment demand for various asset
classes, including real estate.
Greater China Region In terms of overall activity, the region experienced a significant surge in sales
Stolen the Limelight transaction volumes during the second half of 2009. Rebounding from the
trough seen in 1Q2009, the aggregate value of investment sales transactions
increased nearly four fold to reach the levels seen over the same period before
the onset of the financial crisis. The key cities in China, particularly Beijing
and Shanghai, remained the key contributors to the upsurge in market volume
during the second half of 2009, despite the fact that a number of measures
have been implemented by the Central Government to curb speculative
purchases. As usual, Hong Kong continued to benefit from the growing
appetite attributed to a massive group of buyers in the mainland. Elsewhere
in the region, the pace of recovery in terms of volume was generally slower
than expected. In the case of Australasia, the overall volume in the second
half of 2009 remained 50% below the levels seen before the financial crisis
due to rate hikes and sales withdrawals by individual vendors.
Investment Yields Although there was a rebound in both capital values and transactional volume
during the second half of 2009, the leasing market is yet to catch up with the
sales market in general. Rentals continued to trend downwards as occupational
demand remained fragile. Rentals in individual centres continued to face
the challenge of higher-than-average vacancy rates in the secondary market
and plentiful new supply coming on line. As such, average investment yields
in the region were compressed further by about 50 basis points (bps) during
the second half of 2009, although Australasia saw a mild expansion of about
3 bps.
Office Developments Gained By asset type and location, office developments in the Greater China region
Market Favour have been favoured by the market amid expectations of a prospective rental
catch-up and long-term economic growth in the region. A similar trend was
seen in the statistics compiled by Real Capital Analytics. Looking at the office
sector, as of January 2010, Shanghai, Beijing and Hong Kong were among the
top five cities with the highest volume of sales transactions valued at US$20
million or above over the past 12 months. Tokyo and Seoul continued to
stay on top of the list with aggregate volumes of US$11.1 billion and US$4.2
billion, respectively, over the same period.
REGIONAL OVERVIEW
Market Outlook
Looking forward, the prevailing positive market sentiment is expected to
continue in 2010 and the various governments in the region are anticipated
to keep market liquidity at high levels over the near to medium term. As such,
a dramatic expansion of investment yields is unlikely, particularly when rentals
are yet to catch up in most of the centres. However, with the gradual economic
recovery, together with the real growth in real estate demand as a result of job
growth and business expansion, the leasing market might hit bottom in the
second half of 2010. As such, investment grade office assets will continue to
be sought after by investors over the next 6-12 months.
8,000
Guangzhou 5.9% 3.5% 5.3% 7.0%
Shanghai 6.8% 3.4% 6.5% 8.6%
6,000 Hong Kong 3.5% 2.4% 3.8% 5.2%
4,232
Taipei 3.5% 3.1% 4.1% 4.3%
4,000 3,543
Sydney
Osaka
Nagoya
Adelaide
Tokyo
Singapore
Canberra
Seoul
Hong Kong
Perth
Guangzhou
Fukuoka
Auckland
Beijing
Taipei
Melbourne
Brisbane
Kuala Lumpur
Nanjing
Shenzhen
New Delhi
Mumbai
Wellington
Chennai
Gold Coast
Southeast Asia
Jakarta 8.2% 10.0% 4.4% 8.0%
Manila 10.6% 6.5% - -
Singapore *3.9% *1.9% *7.1% **6.0%
Source: Real Capital Analytics, January 2010
Note: Sales transactions closed in the past 12 months valued Bangkok 7.5% 4.9% 8.2% 10.9%
at US$20 million or greater
Ho Chi Minh City - - - -
India
Bangalore 11.3% 5.3% 14.0% -
Chennai 11.3% 5.3% 14.0% -
Mumbai 10.3% 3.3% 11.0% -
New Dehli 9.8% 3.8% 11.0% -
Australasia
Adelaide 8.0% - - 8.4%
Canberra 7.8% - - -
Melbourne 7.9% - - 8.8%
Perth 8.0% - - 9.0%
Sydney 7.7% - - 8.5%
Auckland 8.4% - 7.0% 8.1%
Wellington 8.1% - - -
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
CHINA - BEIJING
sector during the second half of 2009. In addition to the growing investment 24%
transaction volume, the profile of investors became more diversified, with two of 20%
% per annum
the largest of the transactions by value revealing a turnaround in the domination 16%
among buyers of State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) in the first three quarters of 12%
2009 to domestic listed developers and investors. Wharf sold its 87.5% stake in 8%
for a total consideration of RMB2.708 billion and Bluewater sold Nexus Centre, 0%
1Q 1988
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1Q 2003
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3Q 2007
1Q 2009
with a total GFA of 103,340 sq m, to SOHO China for RMB2.34 billion.
Source: The People’s Bank of China
In the second half of 2009, three major en bloc sales transactions of luxury BEIJING PROPERTY YIELDS
residential properties were concluded, suggesting that many investors continued to
be interested in Beijing’s residential investment market. International developers 16%
14%
and funds became very active, as evidenced by the acquisitions of projects under
12%
development by Shui On Construction and Materials Limited (SOCAM) and 10%
% per annum
Gaw Capital. Meanwhile, the retail property investment market continued to be 8%
2%
In the second half of 2009, the Central Government circulated two notices to 0%
1Q 2004
2Q 2004
3Q 2004
4Q 2004
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4Q 2009
further tighten management of land supply in a bid to curb speculative purchases
in the land investment market. This should further consolidate Beijing’s real Office Residential Retail
estate market, especially the residential sector, and the market should be more Source: Colliers
divergent, and dominated by developers with healthier and stronger financial
conditions. In addition, the establishment of a consortium by several developer
companies in order to get a lot in the local market, especially within city centres,
should become a trend given continued growing land sales prices.
CHINA - CHENGDU
A s one of the most popular cities in southwestern China, Chengdu has been
favoured by a number of real estate investors, with many multinational
corporations, local and overseas tycoons, and private investors setting up business
28%
1-YEAR LENDING RATE
24%
in the city, providing strong support to the local office market. It is understood
that the take-up of prime office space in Chengdu has been at 60,000-139,000 20%
% per annum
sq m per annum. 16%
12%
According to our research, this take-up of office space will increase by about 20% 8%
per annum over the coming years, translating into demand for 607,200 sq m of 4%
office space. However, with supply in the market in the order of 2.32 million sq m, 0%
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1Q 2009
average vacancy rates will be over 73%, creating serious oversupply, causing both
office rentals and capital values to suffer from substantial downward pressure over Source: The People’s Bank of China
the next three years. However, given the long-term growth potential in Chengdu,
the office market continues to present opportunities to a number of long-term
investors as the existing supply is expected to be absorbed gradually over time. CHENGDU PROPERTY YIELDS
14%
In the retail sector, the highlight of the market was the launch of Silver Stone 12%
for sale in December 2009. The project is one of the city’s most famous mixed 10%
commercial developments, comprising an office block, a five-star hotel and an 8%
upper-end shopping mall 6%
4%
2%
0%
1Q 2004
2Q 2004
3Q 2004
4Q 2004
1Q 2005
2Q 2005
3Q 2005
4Q 2005
1Q 2006
2Q 2006
3Q 2006
4Q 2006
1Q 2007
2Q 2007
3Q 2007
4Q 2007
1Q 2008
2Q 2008
3Q 2008
4Q 2008
1Q 2009
2Q 2009
3Q 2009
4Q 2009
Office
Source: Colliers
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
CHINA - GUANGZHOU
20%
% per annum
16%
remain on an upward trend due to the sustained buying interest among both 12%
foreign and domestic investors. Some of the latest sales transactions included 8%
the en bloc transaction of Kaisa Plaza and the acquisition of five floors in Nanya 4%
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1Q 2003
3Q 2004
1Q 2006
3Q 2007
1Q 2009
Although tightening measures were implemented by the Government, property
Source: The People’s Bank of China
developers determined that they would go ahead with their investment plans by
building up their land banks for development. One of the most notable sales
transactions was the successful acquisition by a consortium comprising R&F GUANGZHOU PROPERTY YIELDS
Properties, Agile Property and Country Garden of a plot of land in Asian Games
16%
City. With a total site area of 2.64 million sq ft, the site was sold for RMB25.5
14%
billion, a record high land price in China. 12%
Looking ahead, the total volume of sales transactions in the local real estate 8%
market is expected to slow over the coming few months due to the cooling, anti- 6%
expectations of a higher interest rate cycle, the real estate market as a whole will 2%
0%
see additional downward pressure over the near term.
1Q 2004
2Q 2004
3Q 2004
4Q 2004
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2Q 2005
3Q 2005
4Q 2005
1Q 2006
2Q 2006
3Q 2006
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2Q 2007
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3Q 2008
4Q 2008
1Q 2009
2Q 2009
3Q 2009
4Q 2009
Office Residential Retail Industrial
Source: Colliers
CHINA - SHANGHAI
users with strong balance sheets. Commercial properties were more popular than 24%
residential in terms of the number of sales transactions during the period. 20%
% per annum
16%
Recent office transactions included the sale of the 18th floor of Shui-On Plaza at 12%
1Q 1988
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1Q 2009
one tower of Pujiang Shuanghui Towers for RMB4.83 billion in September
2009. The floors from the 1/F to the 41/F in the other tower had been acquired
Source: The People’s Bank of China
previously at a price of RMB3.77 billion. In addition, a major portion of Pufa
Tower was sold to the Hainan Air Group in October 2009 for RMB1.5 billion.
In August 2009, SOHO made its first investment deal in Shanghai by acquiring SHANGHAI PROPERTY YIELDS
The Exchange on Nanjing West Road for RMB2.45 billion. The building has
16%
an above ground GFA of 71,671 sq m.
14%
12%
There were also a couple of notable retail transactions during 2H2009, including % per annum 10%
the sale of InPoint, an 11,000 sq m retail property near Nanjing West Road, for 8%
the 3,000 sq m retail facility of Jinlin Tiandi in November 2009 at a total price 4%
0%
block comprising 103 units at Shama Luxe in Xintiandi was sold for RMB928
1Q 2004
2Q 2004
3Q 2004
4Q 2004
1Q 2005
2Q 2005
3Q 2005
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1Q 2006
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3Q 2006
4Q 2006
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2Q 2007
3Q 2007
4Q 2007
1Q 2008
2Q 2008
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1Q 2009
2Q 2009
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4Q 2009
million in December 2009.
Office Residential Retail Industrial
Looking ahead, it is likely that the volume of market activity will remain buoyant Source: Colliers
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
HONG KONG
D espite the pre-emptive measures implemented by the HKMA, the real estate
investment market showed no signs of significant consolidation in terms of
the number of sales transactions across the various property sectors. First, thanks 28%
HONG KONG 3-MONTH HIBOR
to the continued inflow of capital, the average cost of capital came down further 24%
during 2H2009. For example, the three-month Hong Kong interbank offered 20%
rates (3M-HIBOR) fell 22 basis points to 0.14% as at the end of December 2009.
% per annum
16%
As such, positive carry emerged in the prime office market as mortgage rates for
12%
commercial developments, based on a premium of 150 to 200 basis points above
8%
3M-HIBOR, remained below prevailing office rental yields during the period.
4%
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3Q 1992
1Q 1994
3Q 1995
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3Q 1998
1Q 2000
3Q 2001
1Q 2003
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1Q 2006
3Q 2007
1Q 2009
of activity in the investment market. Fundamentally, the real estate investment
market in the second half of 2009 was equity- rather than debt-driven, as it was
Source: The Hong Kong Monetary Authority
before the financial crisis hit in 3Q2008. Prime office units in traditional business
districts and G/F shops remained the most popular targets for most investors. In
the office sector, a batch of strata-title office units at Grand Millennium Plaza in
Sheung Wan was acquired by investors from mainland China and Taiwan, as well HONG KONG PROPERTY YIELDS
as Hong Kong. In 4Q2009, a Taiwanese company bought two strata-title floors 14%
in the low block of Grand Millennium Plaza for HK$332 million, representing 12%
an average unit price of HK$11,388 per sq ft. In the retail sector, the key sales 10%
transaction was the acquisition of The Pemberton, a vertical retail block in Central
% per annum
8%
with a total floor area of 70,000 sq ft, by a real estate fund for a lump sum of
6%
HK$344 million in December 2009.
4%
Looking ahead, the local real estate investment market is predicted to perform 2%
better in 2010 than in 2009, although there are a number of uncertainties that 0%
1Q 2004
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might affect the pace of recovery going forward. Obviously, the key risk factor for
local property prices is the reversal of capital flow. Assuming that the volume of
Office Residential Retail Industrial
liquidity will remain in the system over the medium term, say 6-12 months, and
Source: Rating and Valuation Department, HKSAR Government
the average cost of capital continues to stay low, further capital growth in the
real estate sector is expected to be maintained over the next 12 months. Property
investment yields will remain compressed unless there is a sharp rental catch up
in the leasing market during the same period. Office investment yields for quality
buildings in prime locations will stay below the market average of 3.5%.
TAIWAN - TAIPEI
sales transactions. According to our research, the real estate investment market 24%
saw total turnover reach NT$61.4 billion in the second half of 2009. Insurance 20%
companies continued to be the key players as they have a vast amount of spare
% per annum
16%
cash to invest. Compared to other financial investment vehicles, commercial real 12%
estate continued to be favoured by a number of insurance companies looking for 8%
a stable rental income stream over time.
4%
0%
The notable deals were the acquisition of Asia Plaza by Shin Kong Life for
1Q 1988
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1Q 1994
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3Q 1998
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1Q 2009
NT$11.5 billion and the sale of Cashboxparty KTV retail building to Cathay Life
Source: Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan)
for NT$3 billion. Meanwhile, Nanshan Life acquired Rich 19 office in Taichung
for NT$2.7 billion and Highwealth Construction purchased the Yi Jin Office
building in Taipei and the Asia Rich Tower in Taichung for a total consideration TAIPEI PROPERTY YIELDS
of NT$3.1billion.
16%
14%
Institutional investors continued to stay on the sidelines during 2H2009.
12%
However, due to the sustained low interest rate environment, flexible loan-to- % per annum
10%
value ratios at 70%-80%, the closer collaboration between Taiwan and mainland 8%
China, and the fact that current commercial real estate prices are relatively lower 6%
than in other countries in the region, overseas institutional investors have started 4%
planning a comeback. 2%
0%
1Q 2004
2Q 2004
3Q 2004
4Q 2004
1Q 2005
2Q 2005
3Q 2005
4Q 2005
1Q 2006
2Q 2006
3Q 2006
4Q 2006
1Q 2007
2Q 2007
3Q 2007
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4Q 2008
1Q 2009
2Q 2009
3Q 2009
4Q 2009
Given the ongoing recovery of the global economy and the positive impact
attributed to the signing of the Economic Co-operation Framework Agreement Office Residential Retail Industrial
(ECFA) with mainland China, the local investment market is expected to grow Source: Colliers
in 2010. Real estate prices are predicted to rise thanks to keen buying interest
among prospective investors going forward.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
JAPAN - TOKYO
L and values in Tokyo continued to fall across the board, although the pace of
decline narrowed. The overall demand for office space remained weak and
most companies continued to go for cost-saving options, including downsizing and 5%
JAPAN 10-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS
negotiating a better rental rate for their existing premises, rather than relocating.
4%
As a result, the average vacancy rate for Grade A office space had edged up to a
high of over 7% by the end of 2009. 3%
% per annum
The JREIT market remained difficult and office capital values continued to 2%
fall. However, the local Government remained supportive of JREITs with such 1%
measures as clarification of the tax rules for mergers, tightened standards for
listings and the creation of a public/private fund to support lending. Given this 0%
4Q 1998
2Q 1999
4Q 1999
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2Q 2001
4Q 2001
2Q 2002
4Q 2002
2Q 2003
4Q 2003
2Q 2004
4Q 2004
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2Q 2006
4Q 2006
2Q 2007
4Q 2007
2Q 2008
4Q 2008
2Q 2009
4Q 2009
continued support, a number of mergers are expected to take place in the first
half of 2010. Source: Bank of Japan
transacted between JREITs and their related companies. Secured Capital Japan 6%
acquired Pacific Century Place Marunouchi, which was defaulted by the DaVinci 5%
fund, for a lump sum of about JPY140 billion. This was the largest transaction
% per annum
4%
in 2009, even larger than the sale in May 2009 of AIG’s headquarters in Japan
3%
for JPY115.5 billion.
2%
Looking ahead, the majority of investors will continue to wait on the sidelines for 1%
clear indications of a recovery in both the economy and the real estate market. 0%
1Q 2004
2Q 2004
3Q 2004
4Q 2004
1Q 2005
2Q 2005
3Q 2005
4Q 2005
1Q 2006
2Q 2006
3Q 2006
4Q 2006
1Q 2007
2Q 2007
3Q 2007
4Q 2007
1Q 2008
2Q 2008
3Q 2008
4Q 2008
1Q 2009
2Q 2009
3Q 2009
4Q 2009
As such, the current bid-ask spread, in particular for quality assets, will remain
wide at least over the near term. Office Residential Industrial
Source: Colliers
T he real estate investment market was active in the second half of 2009, with
the market seeing a record high lump sum price of KRW1,843 billion during
3Q2009. In terms of unit price, the deal translated into an average of KRW5.43
6%
KOREA BASE RATE
(7-DAY REPURCHASE RATE)
4%
% per annum
By district, the GBD recorded the highest levels in terms of the size of total floor 3%
area and the lump sum price. Meanwhile, there was only one case in the YBD. 2%
In 4Q2009, overall activity slowed, with only four deals completed during the
1%
period.
0%
2Q 1999
4Q 1999
2Q 2000
4Q 2000
2Q 2001
4Q 2001
2Q 2002
4Q 2002
2Q 2003
4Q 2003
2Q 2004
4Q 2004
2Q 2005
4Q 2005
2Q 2006
4Q 2006
2Q 2007
4Q 2007
2Q 2008
4Q 2008
2Q 2009
4Q 2009
Domestic buyers remained the key group of players in the marketplace during the
second half of 2009, while only four cases including one purchase via a domestic Source: Bank of Korea
REIT were sold to foreign investors. In addition, real estate funds accounted for
the largest slice of the pie during 2H2009. It was noted that competition was
getting stronger and the focus continued to be placed on prime buildings by both SEOUL PROPERTY YIELDS
institutions and funds. Meanwhile, a number of occupiers have been looking to 16%
12%
10%
% per annum
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1Q 2004
2Q 2004
3Q 2004
4Q 2004
1Q 2005
2Q 2005
3Q 2005
4Q 2005
1Q 2006
2Q 2006
3Q 2006
4Q 2006
1Q 2007
2Q 2007
3Q 2007
4Q 2007
1Q 2008
2Q 2008
3Q 2008
4Q 2008
1Q 2009
2Q 2009
3Q 2009
Office Retail
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
INDONESIA - JAKARTA
largely held firm, although individual landlords remained flexible on lease 14%
negotiations. 12%
10%
% per annum
Benefitting from the continued improvement of the external environment, the 8%
6%
local office market witnessed an increasing number of lease enquiries in the private
4%
sector. However, the bulk of the occupiers acted cautiously, waiting for more
2%
positive signs to emerge from both the local political and economic fronts.
0%
3Q 2005
4Q 2005
1Q 2006
2Q 2006
3Q 2006
4Q 2006
1Q 2007
2Q 2007
3Q 2007
4Q 2007
1Q 2008
2Q 2008
3Q 2008
4Q 2008
1Q 2009
2Q 2009
3Q 2009
4Q 2009
Of the various property sectors, in terms of both rentals and occupancy, the
local office market experienced immediate growth over the second half of 2009 Source: Bank of Indonesia
due to a revival of lease enquiries and the relatively small new supply coming
on line in 2010.
supply projection in the future, and the relatively slow activity among retailers 16%
taking space. The big hope is for the apartment sector. It has been indicated that 14%
12%
the government will revise the regulation that limits foreign ownership, giving
% per annum
10%
foreigners property ownership for up to 75 years upfront instead of the current 25 8%
the market, the apartment market is very much relying on this regulation because 4%
local buyers are now becoming limited. In short, we believe that 2010 will offer 2%
0%
much hope for the property industry to perform better than in 2009.
1Q 2004
2Q 2004
3Q 2004
4Q 2004
1Q 2005
2Q 2005
3Q 2005
4Q 2005
1Q 2006
2Q 2006
3Q 2006
4Q 2006
1Q 2007
2Q 2007
3Q 2007
4Q 2007
1Q 2008
2Q 2008
3Q 2008
4Q 2008
1Q 2009
2Q 2009
3Q 2009
4Q 2009
Given a positive projection for GDP growth over 2010 and a much better Office Residential Retail Industrial
outlook in 2011, we believe that the property market will show positive growth Source: Colliers
in 2010. Some positive economic indicators seen early in the year include the
strengthening Rupiah against the US Dollar, relatively steady occupancy rates,
low interest rates and, more importantly, signs that foreign investors are starting
to eye and invest in Indonesia.
PHILIPPINES - MANILA
T he second half of 2009 was a lot better than the first. On the commercial
front, demand shows signs of an imminent recovery over the next six months.
However, despite minimal activity in the construction of office space in Makati
18%
PHILIPPINES REVERSE REPURCHASE RATE
(OVERNIGHT)
16%
CBD, there remains a glut of office space in the market. Vacancy rates are still on 14%
the rise as more space becomes available in many parts of Metro Manila. Rents 12%
for office spaces went down by a total of 20%-25% over the past 18 months, but 10%
6%
4%
In the residential segment, sales take-up of ongoing residential projects in 2%
1Q 2000
3Q 2000
1Q 2001
3Q 2001
1Q 2002
3Q 2002
1Q 2003
3Q 2003
1Q 2004
3Q 2004
1Q 2005
3Q 2005
1Q 2006
3Q 2006
1Q 2007
3Q 2007
1Q 2008
3Q 2008
1Q 2009
3Q 2009
developments in the pipeline by launching new residential projects for both the
luxury and the middle income markets. The bullish sentiment of developers Source: Central Bank of Philippines
moving forward is highlighted by strategic land acquisitions in various locations
in Metro Manila and the provinces. Some developers are also being aggressive in
expanding their business by entering other segments of the market. For example,
MANILA PROPERTY YIELDS
Ayala Land formed a new group, Amaia, that will offer affordable housing projects
and Robinsons Land signalled its entry into the luxury residential segment by 18%
16%
launching a Makati CBD project called Signa Designer Residences. 14%
% per annum 12%
Average rents for luxury condominiums in Makati CBD continue to correct 10%
slightly as the result of a slight glut in supply. Demand for overall supply in the 8%
6%
secondary rental market remains soft in non-CBD locations. 4%
2%
to be released in 1Q2010, REITs will open up opportunities for the industry to Source: Colliers
finance more projects in the commercial, retail, hospitality, residential and leisure
segments of the market.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
SINGAPORE
billion in the second half of 2009, representing nearly three times the level tallied 9%
8%
in the second half of 2008, in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. 7%
6%
% per annum
5%
There was a noticeable increase in the number of deals at and above the S$100
4%
million band in 2H2009, with a total of 15 such transactions registered during 3%
the period. One of the largest deals was the S$541.9-million acquisition of the 99- 2%
1%
year leasehold Clementi Mall from the Government by a joint venture involving 0%
Singapore Press Holdings, NTUC FairPrice Co-Op and NTUC Income Insurance
1Q 1988
4Q 1988
3Q 1989
2Q 1990
1Q 1991
4Q 1991
3Q 1992
2Q 1993
1Q 1994
4Q 1994
3Q 1995
2Q 1996
1Q 1997
4Q 1997
3Q 1998
2Q 1999
1Q 2000
4Q 2000
3Q 2001
2Q 2002
1Q 2003
4Q 2003
3Q 2004
2Q 2005
1Q 2006
4Q 2006
3Q 2007
2Q 2008
1Q 2009
4Q 2009
Co-Op. Another was Frasers Centrepoint Limited’s injection of the S$342.5-
Source: Monetary Authority of Singapore
million Alexandra Technopark, a high-specifications industrial development
into Frasers Commercial Trust.
SINGAPORE PROPERTY YIELDS
In the second half of 2009, the Government announced that it will reinstate the 18%
Confirmed List1 for residential and industrial property development under its 16%
14%
Government Land Sales (GLS) programme for the first half of 2010. However, it
12%
will not introduce any commercial, hotel or white sites to the List over this period, % per annum 10%
4%
2%
Going forward, in line with the modest economic recovery foreseen for the key 0%
1Q 2004
2Q 2004
3Q 2004
4Q 2004
1Q 2005
2Q 2005
3Q 2005
4Q 2005
1Q 2006
2Q 2006
3Q 2006
4Q 2006
1Q 2007
2Q 2007
3Q 2007
4Q 2007
1Q 2008
2Q 2008
3Q 2008
4Q 2008
1Q 2009
2Q 2009
3Q 2009
4Q 2009
global economies, the pick-up in investors’ sentiment and confidence, which
began in the second half of 2009, is likely to continue into 2010. Coupled with
Office Residential Retail Industrial
the unfreezing of the global credit market, the presence of cash-rich investors Source: Colliers
who are likely to raise exposure of their portfolios to property investment, as well 1. Sites on the Confirmed List are released for tender at a pre-determined date without the need for
the sale to be triggered by an application. The number of sites on the Confirmed List in each GLS
as the availability of property investment options at corrected price levels, the programme will depend on market conditions, the strategic need for certain sites to be developed
and other factors.
investment sales market in 2010 is expected to outperform that in 2009. 2. On the Reserve List, the Government will release a site for sale only if an interested party submits
an application for the site to be put up for tender with an offer of a minimum purchase price that
is acceptable to the Government. The successful applicant must undertake to submit a bid for the
site in the ensuing tender at or above the minimum price offered in the application.
THAILAND - BANGKOK
regulations for the Map Ta Phut Industrial Estate has cast a shadow over industrial
8%
investment in Thailand.
6%
% per annum
Overall, the registered capital of applications submitted for investment approval 4%
fell nearly 6% year-on-year (YoY) from THB418 billion to THB393.2 billion during
the period between January and November 2009 and there was a reduction in 2%
investment flow from foreign investors. For example, investment from Japan 0%
1Q 2005
2Q 2005
3Q 2005
4Q 2005
1Q 2006
2Q 2006
3Q 2006
4Q 2006
1Q 2007
2Q 2007
3Q 2007
4Q 2007
1Q 2008
2Q 2008
3Q 2008
4Q 2008
1Q 2009
2Q 2009
3Q 2009
4Q 2009
investors was relatively strong.
Source: Bank of Thailand
No new property stocks were listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) 16%
14%
during the second half of 2009. However, the Thanasiri Group became the
12%
first property developer to list on SET’s Market for Alternative Investment. The
% per annum
10%
4%
2%
Four new property funds were listed on the SET during the second half of 2009. 0%
1Q 2004
2Q 2004
3Q 2004
4Q 2004
1Q 2005
2Q 2005
3Q 2005
4Q 2005
1Q 2006
2Q 2006
3Q 2006
4Q 2006
1Q 2007
2Q 2007
3Q 2007
4Q 2007
1Q 2008
2Q 2008
3Q 2008
4Q 2008
1Q 2009
2Q 2009
3Q 2009
4Q 2009
TPARK Logistics Property Fund (TLOGIS) is worth THB1.533 billion and will
invest in land, warehouses and cold storage facilities at Ticon Logistics Park.
Office Residential Retail Industrial
Sala@sathorn Property Fund has invested in the Sala@sathorn office building
Source: Colliers
and is worth THB1.67 billion. The MFC Strategic Storage Fund was set up with
a capitalisation of THB608 million and invests in cold storage facilities. The 101
Montri Property Storage Fund, worth THB603 million, invests in warehouse
facilities.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
C ompared with other major cities in the region, the real estate investment
market in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) is currently in the early stages of
development. Regarding market size, the number of investment-grade assets
9%
VIETNAM REAL GDP GROWTH
8%
available for sale to both local and overseas investors has been very limited. For
example, the total size of the Grade A office market in HCMC is 105,000 sq 6%
m of floor area in six buildings. A similar situation is seen in the local serviced 5%
projects being built for lease are virtually non-existent. Industrial manufactures 3%
2%
usually lease land by paying a capital sum in advance and then build their own
1%
facilities to suit their needs. In addition, market transparency remains an issue 0%
as investment yields are not publicly available and nearly every sales transaction
1Q 2005
2Q 2005
3Q 2005
4Q 2005
1Q 2006
2Q 2006
3Q 2006
4Q 2006
1Q 2007
2Q 2007
3Q 2007
4Q 2007
1Q 2008
2Q 2008
3Q 2008
4Q 2008
1Q 2009
2Q 2009
3Q 2009
4Q 2009
is regarded as a special purchase.
Source: The State Bank of Vietnam
During the good years before the financial crisis, a number of international real
estate investment trust (REIT) players visited Vietnam and prepared to acquire
local real estate at 7.5%. This reflected a country risk of about 2.5 percentage
points higher than the typical 5% benchmark yields in other cities in the region.
However, yield expectations changed at the beginning of 2008 when inflation
in Vietnam rose as high as 25% per annum. Prospective investors changed their VIETNAM PRIME INTEREST RATE
strategies to acquire distressed assets at yields of no less than 20% per annum. 16%
With market volatility and a lack of real estate assets available for sale, the market 14%
has seen a thin volume of sales transaction over the past four years. 12%
10%
% Per annum
Over the medium term, the local real estate investment market will see yields 8%
falling to between 12% and 15% per annum for prime assets with quality 6%
management. Special purchasers, such as REITS, are willing to accept very low 4%
yields, although distressed asset buyers will anticipate high yields. Prime office 2%
properties available for lease to most international tenants will be on the lower 0%
1Q 2004
2Q 2004
3Q 2004
4Q 2004
1Q 2005
2Q 2005
3Q 2005
4Q 2005
1Q 2006
2Q 2006
3Q 2006
4Q 2006
1Q 2007
2Q 2007
3Q 2007
4Q 2007
1Q 2008
2Q 2008
3Q 2008
4Q 2008
1Q 2009
2Q 2009
3Q 2009
4Q 2009
end of the yield range (i.e. 12%), while industrial properties will show yields of
around 15%. It should be noted that the above range is assumed on the basis
Source: Colliers
of an international purchaser. Local real estate buyers usually adopt a different
attitude to risk as Vietnamese citizens are permitted to acquire freehold properties.
Foreign investors are allowed to purchase leasehold interests but there remains
uncertainty concerning the security of tenures. From a legal perspective, it is
still unclear whether or not leaseholders have the right to renew after the lease
expires.
INDIA
I ndia’s overall economy showed signs of recovery during the second half
of 2009, with various factors suggesting that the country’s economy has
bounced back and the Finance Ministry projecting a growth in GDP of 7.75% 10%
INDIA REPO RATE
9%
for 2009-10. Indian industry continued to show robust recovery, with a growth 8%
rate touching a 25-month high of 11.7% in November 2009. The latest foreign 7%
direct investment (FDI) numbers have also shown renewed growth, an indicator 6%
Per annum
of long-term expectations for the economy. However, a large portion of FDI is 5%
4%
tending to go into sectors where the average capital requirement is also high, 3%
such as the core sectors of real estate and power. 2%
1%
1Q 2004
2Q 2004
3Q 2004
4Q 2004
1Q 2005
2Q 2005
3Q 2005
4Q 2005
1Q 2006
2Q 2006
3Q 2006
4Q 2006
1Q 2007
2Q 2007
3Q 2007
4Q 2007
1Q 2008
2Q 2008
3Q 2008
4Q 2008
1Q 2009
2Q 2009
3Q 2009
4Q 2009
with the residential sector being the most sought after due to encouraging signs
of economic recovery, cheaper entry price levels, lower borrowing costs and the
Source: Reserve Bank of India
inherent demand for housing.
The office market also showed signs of recovery, with a revival of leasing activity
during the second half of 2009. India-focused funds, as compared to global funds,
have been more active as many global funds continued to adopt a wait-and-see
strategy. A number of other funds, including Red Fort Capital, Edelweiss, ASK INDIA REAL GDP GROWTH
Investments and ICICI Ventures, have been actively raising funds for local 12%
investment opportunities.
10%
8%
companies, including Lodha Sahara Prime City, Emaar MGF and BPTP, filed 6%
draft red herring prospectuses (DRHPs) with the Securities Exchange Board of
4%
India for IPO listing in 1Q2010. Several listed companies, such as DLF, Unitech,
Indiabulls Real Estate, Sobha Developers and HDIL, went in for successful 2%
qualified institutional placements or promoter stake sales and raised over US$2 0%
billion. The ability of listed realty players to raise funds gave privately held firms
1Q 2004
2Q 2004
3Q 2004
4Q 2004
1Q 2005
2Q 2005
3Q 2005
4Q 2005
1Q 2006
2Q 2006
3Q 2006
4Q 2006
1Q 2007
2Q 2007
3Q 2007
4Q 2007
1Q 2008
2Q 2008
3Q 2008
4Q 2008
1Q 2009
2Q 2009
3Q 2009
the confidence to look into the primary market.
Source: Central Statistical Organisation, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation,
Government of India
On the policy front, the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy gave the directive
to banks to increase standard provisioning norms on loans for commercial real
estate from 0.4% to 1.0%. This represented an increase in interest costs, which
the market perceived as a reduction of funding that will be available to developers
in the future. However, it was regarded as the right pre-emptive move to prevent
the formation of a local real estate market asset bubble.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
AUSTRALIA - ADELAIDE
AUSTRALIA OCR
F
10%
ollowing an increase in vacancy levels in July 2009 to 4.8%, demand levels
have now begun to stabilise with an improvement anticipated in 2010. In the 8%
early part of 2010, overall vacancy rates will be impacted only by the additional 6%
% per annum
stock completed in 2009. Currently, an estimated 22,000 sq m remains seeking
pre-commitment in these developments. A modest outlook suggests that there 4%
vacancy rates to 6.0%-6.5%. By mid-2010, vacancy rates will start to tighten and
are expected to fall back to below 6%. 0%
1Q 2000
3Q 2000
1Q 2001
3Q 2001
1Q 2002
3Q 2002
1Q 2003
3Q 2003
1Q 2004
3Q 2004
1Q 2005
3Q 2005
1Q 2006
3Q 2006
1Q 2007
3Q 2007
1Q 2008
3Q 2008
1Q 2009
3Q 2009
Development activity will be limited until at least 2011 as the ability to secure Source: Reserve Bank of Australia
funding for many projects has been difficult. Given this, no new development
projects were announced in 4Q2009. Currently, any future new project will
coincide with tenant pre-commitment, thus helping to keep vacancy rates low
going forward. ADELAIDE PROPERTY YIELDS
16%
On the sales front, institutions continued to unload their portfolios in an attempt 14%
to reduce their overall debt levels, causing a two-fold increase in the number of 12%
sales transactions in 2009. Although only two major investment transactions were 10%
% per annum
6%
4%
In the industrial sector, the overall volume of sales transactions fell in the
2%
second half of 2009 due to the withdrawal of institutions from the buying
0%
arena, notwithstanding the sustained buying interests from a number of private
1Q 2004
2Q 2004
3Q 2004
4Q 2004
1Q 2005
2Q 2005
3Q 2005
4Q 2005
1Q 2006
2Q 2006
3Q 2006
4Q 2006
1Q 2007
2Q 2007
3Q 2007
4Q 2007
1Q 2008
2Q 2008
3Q 2008
4Q 2008
1Q 2009
2Q 2009
3Q 2009
4Q 2009
investors. Given that the same conditions are expected to prevail over the short
term, investment yields for premises located in less-established areas may increase. Office Industrial
Overall, demand for units priced at AU$3 million or below is expected to remain Source: Colliers
strong.
Leasing demand remained stable for the traditional inner industrial precincts,
fuelling further rental growth during the second half of 2009. Looking forward,
the market will see an increase in activity in the first half of 2010 if more stock
is released onto the market.
AUSTRALIA - CANBERRA
helped narrow the gap between the expectations of vendors and buyers. Prime
6%
% per annum
office buildings have been particularly sought after due to the security of long-
term government leases and attractive yields. 4%
2%
The outlook for non-contemporary accommodation will be less optimistic and
capital values are expected to fall further, albeit at a slower rate. The market 0%
1Q 2000
3Q 2000
1Q 2001
3Q 2001
1Q 2002
3Q 2002
1Q 2003
3Q 2003
1Q 2004
3Q 2004
1Q 2005
3Q 2005
1Q 2006
3Q 2006
1Q 2007
3Q 2007
1Q 2008
3Q 2008
1Q 2009
3Q 2009
dynamics have changed, with a widening gap between old and new building
stock in terms of rental values, yields and capital value rates. Tenants in older Source: Reserve Bank of Australia
accommodation now have greater bargaining power, which will reduce rental
growth and increase incentive levels. Non-market review mechanisms in existing
leases have created a situation where many secondary buildings have passing
CANBERRA PROPERTY YIELDS
income in excess of market levels. This will change as market reviews, renewals
and new lettings take effect, and reduce net income and capital values. 16%
14%
12%
The migration of tenants from old to new stock has caused a sharp increase
10%
in sub-leasing vacancy levels, which have doubled from 1.3% to 2.6% in the
% per annum
8%
Canberra region. The delivery of new stock without pre-commitments over the 6%
past 12 months has caused vacancy levels to increase for Grade A premises, a 4%
trend that will continue in 2010. However, it will be corrected over the next few 2%
over the next few years, in addition to the significant amount that has been
Source: Colliers
delivered over the past three years. We expect yields to be relatively stable over the
short to medium term and incremental capital growth to be achieved for prime
assets that meet contemporary standards. Secondary assets with inflated passing
rents are likely to experience further capital depreciation over the short term and
might be considered for major refurbishment and/or redevelopment.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
AUSTRALIA - MELBOURNE
25 basis points in October, November and December 2009 to the current level 8%
% per annum
but declined to 5.5% in December 2009, with many economic commentators
believing that the unemployment rate has now peaked. Strong employment 4%
growth and a substantial growth in house prices put additional pressure on the
2%
RBA to lift rates.
0%
1Q 2000
3Q 2000
1Q 2001
3Q 2001
1Q 2002
3Q 2002
1Q 2003
3Q 2003
1Q 2004
3Q 2004
1Q 2005
3Q 2005
1Q 2006
3Q 2006
1Q 2007
3Q 2007
1Q 2008
3Q 2008
1Q 2009
3Q 2009
Private and offshore investors dominated the bulk of sales activity in 2009.
Investment sales transactions (on sales in excess of AU$10 million) in Melbourne’s Source: Reserve Bank of Australia
CBD totalled AU$600 million in 2009. The major highlight in 2009 was the sale
of 15 William Street in June 2009 to Deka Immobilien Investment. The short-
and long-term appeal of the Melbourne CBD office market has been enhanced, MELBOURNE PROPERTY YIELDS
bringing forward demand from active European and Asian groups. The results of
the latest Colliers International Investor Sentiment Survey 3Q2009 also indicate 16%
14%
that investors believe that the market has seen its bottom and is poised for an
12%
upswing as early as mid-2010. In the survey, the Melbourne CBD office market % per annum
10%
was identified as one of the top two locations offering the best investment value 8%
4%
Leasing activity levels remained steady during the second half of 2009, with a 2%
Source: Colliers
In the industrial sector, there was an improvement in both sales and leasing
activity in the second half of 2009. Investment yields for prime assets remained
stable and were at 8.50% as of 4Q2009, while second-tier industrial developments
were between 10% and 11%.
AUSTRALIA - PERTH
I nvestment sales transactions remained subdued in the second half of 2009, with
four major transactions occurring in the CBD. The largest one was the sale to an
institutional investor of a 50% stake in a fully pre-committed office development.
10%
AUSTRALIA OCR
Uncertainty in the future course of the office market in combination with tight 8%
% per annum
Yields for the Perth CBD have stabilised to an average of circa 7.5% after softening 4%
in the first half of 2009. With the rising level of optimism over the past six months, 2%
investment yields may begin to tighten in 2010. Foreign investors continue to
favour Perth as a favourable investment location in Western Australia for supplying 0%
1Q 2000
3Q 2000
1Q 2001
3Q 2001
1Q 2002
3Q 2002
1Q 2003
3Q 2003
1Q 2004
3Q 2004
1Q 2005
3Q 2005
1Q 2006
3Q 2006
1Q 2007
3Q 2007
1Q 2008
3Q 2008
1Q 2009
3Q 2009
minerals and natural gas to the world.
Source: Reserve Bank of Australia
14%
12%
Interest rates in Australia have risen in 2009 and are likely to rise further in 2010 % per annum
10%
as the Reserve Bank of Australia will act pre-emptively in order to dampen any 8%
front, the prospective increase in interest rates will result in low investment 4%
activity in 2010. 2%
0%
1Q 2004
2Q 2004
3Q 2004
4Q 2004
1Q 2005
2Q 2005
3Q 2005
4Q 2005
1Q 2006
2Q 2006
3Q 2006
4Q 2006
1Q 2007
2Q 2007
3Q 2007
4Q 2007
1Q 2008
2Q 2008
3Q 2008
4Q 2008
1Q 2009
2Q 2009
3Q 2009
4Q 2009
Office Industrial
Source: Colliers
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
AUSTRALIA - SYDNEY
After reducing the official cash rate to a 50-year low of 3.00% in April 2009, the
AUSTRALIA OCR
RBA started to move interest rates up from the lows in October 2009 with three
10%
consecutive increases of 25 basis points in October, November and December
to the current 3.75%. These increases occurred due to positive economic results, 8%
including positive GDP growth and strong job growth figures. The national
6%
% per annum
unemployment rate reached a high of 5.9% in 2009 but declined to 5.7% and
held steady in 4Q2009. Concerns in early 2009 that the unemployment rate would 4%
escalate to between 7% and 8% have abated and the rate is now not expected to 2%
go beyond current levels. Stronger than expected retail sales in November and
December 2009, as well as rising house prices, put additional pressure on the 0%
1Q 2000
3Q 2000
1Q 2001
3Q 2001
1Q 2002
3Q 2002
1Q 2003
3Q 2003
1Q 2004
3Q 2004
1Q 2005
3Q 2005
1Q 2006
3Q 2006
1Q 2007
3Q 2007
1Q 2008
3Q 2008
1Q 2009
3Q 2009
RBA to lift rates further.
Source: Reserve Bank of Australia
Overall, the second half of 2009 saw a strong increase in sales activity within
Sydney’s CBD, with AU$105 million worth of major office sales taking place in
3Q2009 and a massive AU$808 million in 4Q2009. The major highlight of 2009 SYDNEY PROPERTY YIELDS
was the sale in December 2009 of Aurora Place at 88 Phillip Street to South Korean
National Pension Service. The sale represented the first of a major premium-grade 16%
14%
building in the CBD since the sale of Chifley Tower in 2005. What’s more, at a
12%
sales price of AU$685 million, it was one the largest office sale to take place in % per annum
10%
the world since the global financial crisis took hold in 2008. 8%
6%
In the Sydney industrial market, there was an increase in sales and leasing 4%
activity during the second half of 2009 due to an increase in imports and stock 2%
replenishment in the private sector. During 4Q2009, the market saw the first 0%
1Q 2004
2Q 2004
3Q 2004
4Q 2004
1Q 2005
2Q 2005
3Q 2005
4Q 2005
1Q 2006
2Q 2006
3Q 2006
4Q 2006
1Q 2007
2Q 2007
3Q 2007
4Q 2007
1Q 2008
2Q 2008
3Q 2008
4Q 2008
1Q 2009
2Q 2009
3Q 2009
4Q 2009
purchase of an industrial asset by a listed property trust in more than 12 months
when the Dexus Property Group bought 2-4 Military Road, Matraville, for Office Industrial
AU$46 million.
Source: Colliers
I n the office sector, vacancy rates moved up in most CBD precincts, with the
average rate registered at 11.5% in 4Q2009 compared with 8.4% in mid-2009.
Prime-grade office vacancy rates also rose to 11.5% over the same period, up from
9.0%
NEW ZEALAND OCR
8.0%
5.4% in June 2009. In 2009, typical prime office rents fell to around NZ$330 per 7.0%
sq m per annum, down 8% from early 2009, as tenants opt for renewals rather 6.0%
% per annum
than take new leases. Landlords are agreeing to shorter lease terms and lease 5.0%
4.0%
term extensions to increase tenant flexibility, in some cases offering a rent-free
3.0%
period as part of an incentive package. The sales transactions that have occurred 2.0%
in the Auckland market have shown the return to the market of private investors 1.0%
and property syndicates looking to take advantage of cyclical lows. Investment 0.0%
1Q 2000
3Q 2000
1Q 2001
3Q 2001
1Q 2002
3Q 2002
1Q 2003
3Q 2003
1Q 2004
3Q 2004
1Q 2005
3Q 2005
1Q 2006
3Q 2006
1Q 2007
3Q 2007
1Q 2008
3Q 2008
1Q 2009
3Q 2009
yields are now between 8% and 9% for typical prime-grade office space and are
expected to remain stable over the next 12 months. Source: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand
six months previously and prime market yields stabilised at between 7.75% and 14%
10%
tenants remain in favour, and a number of private investors and high-net-worth
% per annum
8%
individuals are merging to acquire larger industrial assets.
6%
4%
In the retail sector, prime retail rents stabilised in 4Q2009 after a decline of 2%
around 15% since the beginning of the year. Prime locations, such as lower 0%
1Q 2004
2Q 2004
3Q 2004
4Q 2004
1Q 2005
2Q 2005
3Q 2005
4Q 2005
1Q 2006
2Q 2006
3Q 2006
4Q 2006
1Q 2007
2Q 2007
3Q 2007
4Q 2007
1Q 2008
2Q 2008
3Q 2008
4Q 2008
1Q 2009
2Q 2009
3Q 2009
4Q 2009
Queen Street, still remain retailers’ favourite spots. Due to the stabilisation of
retail spending and the return of consumption confidence, retail investment
Office Retail Industrial
sentiment rebounded to the levels seen in early 2009. Prime average retail yields
tightened to around 7% in 4Q2009. Source: Colliers
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
8.0%
4Q2009, while prime-grade vacancy rates remained stable at around 0.7% and 7.0%
secondary grade rates rose from 6.7% six months ago to 7.4% in 4Q2009. 6.0%
% per annum
5.0%
Investment yields in the majority of the office precincts remained static in 4.0%
3.0%
4Q2009. However, yields have edged up by 25 to 50 basis points in the Core
2.0%
precinct and investment activity remained active in the sub-NZ$3 million 1.0%
bracket. The prevailing trend is expected to continue over the next 12 months, 0.0%
1Q 2000
3Q 2000
1Q 2001
3Q 2001
1Q 2002
3Q 2002
1Q 2003
3Q 2003
1Q 2004
3Q 2004
1Q 2005
3Q 2005
1Q 2006
3Q 2006
1Q 2007
3Q 2007
1Q 2008
3Q 2008
1Q 2009
3Q 2009
with face office rents dropping by a further 2.4% to the end of 2010. Capital
values are also expected to decline further over the next 12 months on the back Source: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand
of weakening rents.
In the industrial sector, vendors have been offering a range of lease incentives,
WELLINGTON PROPERTY YIELDS
including straightforward rental reductions. These have been more prevalent in
secondary or larger warehouses with floor areas of over 3,000 sq m. Industrial 16%
capital values have been dropping, although the rate of decline has narrowed. 14%
With a further downslide in rentals, industrial capital values will see a further 12%
8%
6%
In the retail sector, the pace of rental decline in the CBD narrowed from 5.1% 4%
in mid-2009 to 4.0% in 4Q2009. With strengthening consumption confidence 2%
and improving market sentiment, the retail market saw a return of investment 0%
1Q 2004
2Q 2004
3Q 2004
4Q 2004
1Q 2005
2Q 2005
3Q 2005
4Q 2005
1Q 2006
2Q 2006
3Q 2006
4Q 2006
1Q 2007
2Q 2007
3Q 2007
4Q 2007
1Q 2008
2Q 2008
3Q 2008
4Q 2008
1Q 2009
2Q 2009
3Q 2009
4Q 2009
demand during 4Q2009. This was particularly the case for properties in the
lower price bracket. Despite the fall in rentals, investment yields were compressed
Office
further to an average of 6.9% and 7.4% in the prime and secondary markets,
respectively, during 4Q2009. Source: Colliers
Greater China
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Greater China
and stronger government aid for technological the overall land supply policy. Delimiting to the period of the total land price shall not exceed
innovations. The action aims to drive a new segment of commodity residential housing, the one year in principle, and the down payment shall
source of economic growth that will sustain land sales area of single plot must not exceed not be less than the 50% of the total price for
China’s recovery. the upper limits of 7, 14 and 20 hectares in small the developer.The new down payment policy for
cities (towns), medium-sized cities and large cities, land transactions, along with the 5.55% business
According to the Ministry of Land Resources respectively. Apparently, the government intends tax on selling houses within the five-year holding
(MLR), the government recently approved the to nurture a healthier real estate market through period, reintroduced two weeks ago, aims mainly
revised edition of the Beijing Municipal Overall the revised land management mechanism. to curb speculation in the national real estate
Land Use Master Plan from 2006 to 2020 and market.
stated that Beijing will strictly manage land for The State Council on 2 November announced
construction, especially in urban areas, and also further streamlining of the approval process of The Ministry of Finance on 22 December
maintain rural land construction areas in good foreign investment in the form of joint venture announced the new package on property sales
order for infrastructure construction. According enterprises. According to the new policy, which tax, effective from 1 January 2010. Owners have
to the latest plan, urban and suburban land will take effect on 1 March 2010, foreign-funded to pay taxes levied on the sales price if a non-
construction areas in Beijing will be capped at joint venture enterprises are eligible to set up a common house is held for less than five years;
the upper limit of 270,000 hectares by 2020, of partnership enterprise with registration directly to owners only have to pay taxes levied on the profit
which urban land construction areas will be limited the registration authority, instead of requiring prior if a non-common house is held for at least five
to 77,800 hectares. In 2009, Beijing plans to have approval from the local commission of the Ministry years, or that of a common house for less than
about 4,000 hectares of new construction area of Commerce (MOC). The government intends five years; and owners pay no property sales tax
and offer a total land supply of 5,700 hectares. to encourage overseas investors with advanced if a common house is held for at least five years.
technology and management experience to This clarification on the property sales tax is a
The Beijing Municipal Government released the set up joint ventures, aiming at promoting the response to the 5.5% tax on sales of homes by
Action Plan of Promoting the Beijing’s Southern development of modern service industry and the State Council on 9 December, and is aimed
Areas and Accelerating Its Development on other related sectors in the country. at curbing speculation in the housing market.
5 November. According to the Plan, the local
government will invest over RMB50 billion in According to the State Council Executive Meeting
infrastructure projects in Beijing’s southern areas on 9 November, chaired by Chinese Premier Chengdu
over the next three years. This will bring a total Wen Jiabao, China will further strengthen the
estimated investment of RMB290 billion from incentives on domestic consumption and continue Effective on 1st January 2010, the down payment
both the public and private sectors. In addition, to maintain most of the pace of current policies for land acquisition increased from 20% to 50%
the Plan also reveals that a total of seven subway through next year, in order to achieve stable and and the term of capital gain tax on the sale of
lines, covering 188 km, will be completed in the rapid economic growth. As for the real estate housing properties was revised upwards from 2
region and several motorways linking to the south- sector, most of the favourable housing policies, years to within 5 years of purchases.
west of Beijing, including Jingshi Motorway II, will such as the 20% down payment and discount
be constructed within five years, which should mortgage rate on first home buyers, will remain
benefit the further promotion and development the same in 2010, except that the business tax
of such business parks as the Lize Financial exemption for second housing will be limited
Business District of Beijing, the Zhongguancun to more than five years, instead of a two-year
Fengtai Science Park and the Daxing Bio-medicine holding period.
Industry Park in the precinct.
The Ministry of Land and Resources (MLR) on The consor tium of MOF and four other
10 November circulated the Notice on “The government agencies on 17 December circulated
Directory of Projects with Restricted Land Use the notice on further strengthening the transfer
(the Revised Edition of 2006)” to further tighten payment management of land transactions.
According to the notice, the instalment payment
Greater China
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
North Asia
Seoul
Korea recorded a positive economic growth after
three consecutive quarters of decline, with GDP
growing by 0.73% YoY in 3Q 2009 and 6.29%
YoY in 4Q 2009.
South Asia
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
South Asia
Bangkok
Thailand’s economy rebounded in 3Q 2009, with
the GDP rate of decline narrowing from 7.1% YoY
in 1Q 2009 and 4.9% YoY in 2Q 2009 to 2.8% YoY
in 3Q 2009. On a quarterly basis, an increase of
1.3% QoQ was recorded in 3Q 2009. The Bank
of Thailand predicted the economy to grow in
the range of 3.3%-5.3% in 2010. Meanwhile, the
state planning agency NESDB forecast GDP to
expand by 3-4% and Reuters expects a 3.5%
growth in 2010.
INDIA
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has made it easier real estate company, Mainstreet Equity, which owns
for banks to lend to special economic zones (SEZ). more than 6,000 rental properties across Canada,
Several types of advances to projects in special is likely to set up a billion-dollar India-specific real
economic zones have now been excluded from estate fund to mark its entry into the Indian real
the definition of commercial real estate loans. In estate market.
the circular issued on Wednesday, RBI has sought
to define a commercial real estate loan as one Between April and October 2009, the total FDI
where the funds are used to acquire real estate inflow stood at $17.64 billion, almost 6% lower
and the repayment of the loans is out of proceeds than the corresponding period in 2008. Meanwhile,
of sale or rentals from the property. Bearing these foreign investments flowing into the services
conditions in mind, RBI has sought to differentiate sector (financial and non-financial) fell by about
between loans that could be classified as CRE 7% YoY, to $3,121 million, during April- October
Economy exposures and those that were not.
Kotak Realty Fund, a real estate private equity (PE)
2009. Among other major sectors, housing and
real estate development witnessed a 12.5% YoY
fund from Kotak Mahindra Group, will invest Rs surge in FDI inflows, to $2,056 million, during the
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) moved to hike
270 crore to acquire stakes in a Mumbai-based same period. The FDI into construction totalled
the statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) and increase the
realty firm and a slum rehabilitation project and $1,565 million during the same period in 2009
provisioning norms for advances to the commercial
a Bangalore-based developer.The fund will spend (against $1,742 million a year ago).
real estate sector.The provisioning requirement for
Rs 100 crore to acquire a 60% stake in Star Light Aimed at promoting low-cost housing, the
loans to commercial real estate has been increased
Developers Pvt. Ltd and another Rs 100 crore for government has launched an interest rate subsidy
from 0.4% to 1%. Some analysts commented that
50% of the slum rehabilitation project undertaken scheme that could help a home loan borrower
interest rates are still at their lowest in recent times,
by Ackruti City Ltd near Mumbai’s international save up to Rs10,000 in EMIs, provided the cost of
and even a marginal hike due to this tightening in
airport. It will also spend Rs 70 crore to purchase the house is less than Rs20 lakh. In other words,
provisioning will not seriously affect the overall
a 60% stake in Bangalore-based Lalith Gangadhar the interest subvention scheme of 1 percent
sector. Rather, it might help, as the central Bank is
Constructions Pvt. Ltd. will apply on all individual housing loans up to
trying to curb the formation of an asset bubble. In
Canada-based NRI billionaire Bob Dhillon is all Rs10 lakh for units costing up to Rs20 lakh. The
other words, it is trying to control the asset prices
set to make a foray into India. Dhillon’s Canadian interest rate subsidy scheme will be offered at a
for end users. Indeed, in some cities property
prices have gone up by 5-15 percent in past 2-3 one-year period from 1st October 2009 to 30th
months. If well implemented, this policy will benefit September 2010.
property buyers in the long run.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Australasia
Osaka, Japan
Sumitomo Seimei Kawaramachi #2 Building
Chengdu, China Taipei, Taiwan 8-4, Kawaramachi 4-chome Chuo-ku
Room L 16F City Tower 49/F TAIPEI 101 TOWER Osaka, 541-0048
86 Section One Renmin Nan Road No 7 Xin Yi Road Sec 5 Taipei 110
Chengdu 610016 Brett Jensen
Charles Huang Account Manager
Jacky Tsai Director, Investment Sales Tel : 81 6 6232 0790
General Manager Tel : 886 2 8101 1150 Email : bjensen@colliershalifax.com
Tel : 86 28 8620 2128 Email : charles.huang@colliers.com
Email : jacky.tsai@colliers.com
Guangzhou, China
Room 702 Teem Tower Seoul, South Korea
208 Tianhe Road 10F. Korea Tourism Organization Bldg.
Guangzhou 510620 10 Da-dong, Jung-gu,
Seoul 100-180
Eric Lam
General Manager Jay Yun
Tel : 86 20 3819 3988 Senior Director & General Manager
Email : eric.lam@colliers.com Tel : 82 2 6740 2001
Email : jay.yun@colliers.com
Shanghai, China
16F Hong Kong New World Tower
300 Huaihai Zhong Road
Shanghai 200021
Betty Wong
Director, Investment Services & Special
Projects - East China
Tel : 86 21 6141 3529
Email : betty.wong@colliers.com
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
SOUTHEAST
SOUTH ASIA
ASIA INDIA AUSTRALASIA
Jon Chomley
Singapore National Director, Investment Sales
1 Raffles Place Tel : 61 2 9257 0236
#45-00 OUB Centre Email : jon.chomley@colliers.com
Singapore 048616
Ho Eng Joo
Executive Director, Investment Sales Auckland, New Zealand
Tel : 65 6531 8618 Level 27, 151 Queen Street
Email : eng-joo.ho@colliers.com PO Box 1631, Auckland 1140
John Goddard
Director
Bangkok, Thailand Tel : 64 9 356 8837
17/F Ploenchit Center Email : john.goddard@colliers.com
2 Sukhumvit Road
Klongtoey, Bangkok 10110
Nukarn Suwatikul
Senior Manager, Investment & Advisory
Tel : 662 656 7000
Email : nukarn.suwatikul@colliers.com
KP Singh
Managing Director
Tel : 84 83 827 5665 The content of this report is for information only and should not be relied upon as a substitute for professional advice, which should be sought
from Colliers International prior to acting in reliance upon any such information. The opinions, estimates and information given herein or
Email : kp.singh@colliers.com otherwise in relation hereto are made by Colliers International and affiliated companies in their best judgement, in the utmost good faith and are
as far as possible based on data or sources which they believe to be reliable in the contest hereto. Notwithstanding, Colliers International and
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