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Asia Pacific

Real Estate Investment


Market Bulletin 2009
FOURTH
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INVESTMENT MARKET OVERVIEW | FOURTH QUARTER | 2009

CONTENTS

Regional Overview .................................................................................. 3-4

Greater China ........................................................................................ 5-10


Beijing, China ....................................................................................................5
Chengdu, China ...............................................................................................6
Guangzhou, China ...........................................................................................7
Shanghai, China ................................................................................................8
Hong Kong SAR, China ..................................................................................9
Taipei, Taiwan ................................................................................................. 10

North Asia ............................................................................................11-12


Tokyo, Japan ................................................................................................... 11
Seoul, South Korea....................................................................................... 12

Southeast Asia ......................................................................................13-17


Jakarta, Indonesia .......................................................................................... 13
Manila, Philippines......................................................................................... 14
Singapore ....................................................................................................... 15
Bangkok, Thailand ......................................................................................... 16
Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam ......................................................................... 17

India ..............................................................................................................18

Australasia ............................................................................................. 19-26


Adelaide, Australia ........................................................................................ 19
Canberra, Australia ...................................................................................... 20
Melbourne, Australia .................................................................................... 21
Perth, Australia .............................................................................................. 22
Sydney, Australia ........................................................................................... 23
Auckland, New Zealand .............................................................................. 24
Wellington, New Zealand ........................................................................... 25

APPENDIX
Major Market News ............................................................................ 28-35
Greater China ......................................................................................... 28-30
North Asia ..................................................................................................... 31
South Asia ................................................................................................ 32-33
India................................................................................................................. 34
Australasia ..................................................................................................... 35
Contacts ................................................................................................ 36-37

2 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | REGIONAL RESEARCH


INVESTMENT MARKET OVERVIEW | FOURTH QUARTER | 2009

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

REGIONAL OVERVIEW

The real estate investment market in the region continued to benefit from the
improving sentiment and the gradual economic recovery seen in the second
half of 2009. The massive flow of liquidity and the ease of credit initiated by
a series of fiscal and monetary stimulus measures not only kept borrowing
rates at low levels, but also underpinned investment demand for various asset
classes, including real estate.

Greater China Region In terms of overall activity, the region experienced a significant surge in sales
Stolen the Limelight transaction volumes during the second half of 2009. Rebounding from the
trough seen in 1Q2009, the aggregate value of investment sales transactions
increased nearly four fold to reach the levels seen over the same period before
the onset of the financial crisis. The key cities in China, particularly Beijing
and Shanghai, remained the key contributors to the upsurge in market volume
during the second half of 2009, despite the fact that a number of measures
have been implemented by the Central Government to curb speculative
purchases. As usual, Hong Kong continued to benefit from the growing
appetite attributed to a massive group of buyers in the mainland. Elsewhere
in the region, the pace of recovery in terms of volume was generally slower
than expected. In the case of Australasia, the overall volume in the second
half of 2009 remained 50% below the levels seen before the financial crisis
due to rate hikes and sales withdrawals by individual vendors.

Investment Yields Although there was a rebound in both capital values and transactional volume
during the second half of 2009, the leasing market is yet to catch up with the
sales market in general. Rentals continued to trend downwards as occupational
demand remained fragile. Rentals in individual centres continued to face
the challenge of higher-than-average vacancy rates in the secondary market
and plentiful new supply coming on line. As such, average investment yields
in the region were compressed further by about 50 basis points (bps) during
the second half of 2009, although Australasia saw a mild expansion of about
3 bps.

Office Developments Gained By asset type and location, office developments in the Greater China region
Market Favour have been favoured by the market amid expectations of a prospective rental
catch-up and long-term economic growth in the region. A similar trend was
seen in the statistics compiled by Real Capital Analytics. Looking at the office
sector, as of January 2010, Shanghai, Beijing and Hong Kong were among the
top five cities with the highest volume of sales transactions valued at US$20
million or above over the past 12 months. Tokyo and Seoul continued to
stay on top of the list with aggregate volumes of US$11.1 billion and US$4.2
billion, respectively, over the same period.

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | REGIONAL RESEARCH 3


INVESTMENT MARKET OVERVIEW | FOURTH QUARTER | 2009

REGIONAL OVERVIEW

Market Outlook
Looking forward, the prevailing positive market sentiment is expected to
continue in 2010 and the various governments in the region are anticipated
to keep market liquidity at high levels over the near to medium term. As such,
a dramatic expansion of investment yields is unlikely, particularly when rentals
are yet to catch up in most of the centres. However, with the gradual economic
recovery, together with the real growth in real estate demand as a result of job
growth and business expansion, the leasing market might hit bottom in the
second half of 2010. As such, investment grade office assets will continue to
be sought after by investors over the next 6-12 months.

OFFICE INVESTMENT SALES TRANSACTIONS PROPERTY INVESTMENT YIELDS


(Asia Pacific Region in the past 12 months) 4Q 2009 (% per annum)
12,000
11,167 City Office Residential Retail Industrial
Greater China
10,000
Beijing 7.2% 3.0% 6.5% -
Chengdu 8.0% - - -
Total Value (US$ million)

8,000
Guangzhou 5.9% 3.5% 5.3% 7.0%
Shanghai 6.8% 3.4% 6.5% 8.6%
6,000 Hong Kong 3.5% 2.4% 3.8% 5.2%
4,232
Taipei 3.5% 3.1% 4.1% 4.3%
4,000 3,543

2,647 North Asia


2,428
# #
2,000
1,183
Seoul 4.6% - 3.6% -
1,101
832
676 660 596 553 441
410 354 311 287 Tokyo 4.8% 6.5% - 6.5%
152 128 119 95 69 42 35 30 22
0
Shanghai

Sydney

Osaka

Nagoya

Adelaide
Tokyo

Singapore

Canberra
Seoul

Hong Kong

Perth
Guangzhou

Fukuoka

Auckland
Beijing

Taipei

Melbourne

Brisbane
Kuala Lumpur

Nanjing

Shenzhen

New Delhi
Mumbai

Wellington
Chennai
Gold Coast

Southeast Asia
Jakarta 8.2% 10.0% 4.4% 8.0%
Manila 10.6% 6.5% - -
Singapore *3.9% *1.9% *7.1% **6.0%
Source: Real Capital Analytics, January 2010
Note: Sales transactions closed in the past 12 months valued Bangkok 7.5% 4.9% 8.2% 10.9%
at US$20 million or greater
Ho Chi Minh City - - - -

India
Bangalore 11.3% 5.3% 14.0% -
Chennai 11.3% 5.3% 14.0% -
Mumbai 10.3% 3.3% 11.0% -
New Dehli 9.8% 3.8% 11.0% -

Australasia
Adelaide 8.0% - - 8.4%
Canberra 7.8% - - -
Melbourne 7.9% - - 8.8%
Perth 8.0% - - 9.0%
Sydney 7.7% - - 8.5%
Auckland 8.4% - 7.0% 8.1%
Wellington 8.1% - - -

* Strata net yield Source: Colliers


** Strata net yield for 60-year leasehold multi-user upper floor space
# 3Q 2009

4 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | REGIONAL RESEARCH


INVESTMENT MARKET OVERVIEW | FOURTH QUARTER | 2009

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

CHINA - BEIJING

O n the back of the consistent and stable macro-economic policies, Beijing’s


real estate market continued to witness an increasing level of investment
activities, with 11 en bloc or significant sales transactions recorded in the office 28%
1-YEAR LENDING RATE

sector during the second half of 2009. In addition to the growing investment 24%

transaction volume, the profile of investors became more diversified, with two of 20%

% per annum
the largest of the transactions by value revealing a turnaround in the domination 16%

among buyers of State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) in the first three quarters of 12%

2009 to domestic listed developers and investors. Wharf sold its 87.5% stake in 8%

Beijing Capital Times Square to Beijing Huarong Infrastructure Investment Co. 4%

for a total consideration of RMB2.708 billion and Bluewater sold Nexus Centre, 0%

1Q 1988

3Q 1989

1Q 1991

3Q 1992

1Q 1994

3Q 1995

1Q 1997

3Q 1998

1Q 2000

3Q 2001

1Q 2003

3Q 2004

1Q 2006

3Q 2007

1Q 2009
with a total GFA of 103,340 sq m, to SOHO China for RMB2.34 billion.
Source: The People’s Bank of China

In the second half of 2009, three major en bloc sales transactions of luxury BEIJING PROPERTY YIELDS
residential properties were concluded, suggesting that many investors continued to
be interested in Beijing’s residential investment market. International developers 16%

14%
and funds became very active, as evidenced by the acquisitions of projects under
12%
development by Shui On Construction and Materials Limited (SOCAM) and 10%

% per annum
Gaw Capital. Meanwhile, the retail property investment market continued to be 8%

dominated by domestic enterprises, especially those with an SOE background, 6%

and financial institutions. 4%

2%

In the second half of 2009, the Central Government circulated two notices to 0%
1Q 2004
2Q 2004
3Q 2004
4Q 2004
1Q 2005
2Q 2005
3Q 2005
4Q 2005
1Q 2006
2Q 2006
3Q 2006
4Q 2006
1Q 2007
2Q 2007
3Q 2007
4Q 2007
1Q 2008
2Q 2008
3Q 2008
4Q 2008
1Q 2009
2Q 2009
3Q 2009
4Q 2009
further tighten management of land supply in a bid to curb speculative purchases
in the land investment market. This should further consolidate Beijing’s real Office Residential Retail

estate market, especially the residential sector, and the market should be more Source: Colliers
divergent, and dominated by developers with healthier and stronger financial
conditions. In addition, the establishment of a consortium by several developer
companies in order to get a lot in the local market, especially within city centres,
should become a trend given continued growing land sales prices.

MAJOR INVESTMENT TRANSACTIONS


Development Floor Area Lump Sum Price Seller Buyer
(sq m) (RMB million) (US$ million)
Office
Sunny Region 53,176 1,400.00 205.03 Chang Qing Co.,Ltd. CITIC Securities
One Square 60,000 1,740.00 254.83 Nan Fung Group Bank Of China Beijing Branch
Beijing Capital Times Square 120,000 2,708.00 396.59 Wharf Beijing Huarong
Infrastructure Investment Co.
Nexus Center 103,340 2,340.00 342.70 Bluewater SOHO China
Raycom Infotech Park Tower D 41,000 750.00 109.84 Raycom Sohu
Haitian Square 200,000 2,000.00 292.90 Beijing Haitian Square Real Estate Guangyao Dongfang Group
Development Company
Residential
Pacific Century Place Phase 2 / 57,700 800.00 117.16 Pacific Century Premium Shui On Construction
No. 4 Gongti Beilu Developments Limited and Materials Limited
Regal Garden / No. 9 Gongyuan Xijie 42,000 750.00 109.84 Golife Concepts Holdings Beijing Yinzuo Xingye Agency
Company Limited Real Estate
Embassy House / Dongzhimenwai 48,248 1,000.00 146.45 Hines Gateway Captial
Xiaojie No. 18
Note: US$1 = RMB 6.8282

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | REGIONAL RESEARCH 5


INVESTMENT MARKET OVERVIEW | FOURTH QUARTER | 2009

CHINA - CHENGDU

A s one of the most popular cities in southwestern China, Chengdu has been
favoured by a number of real estate investors, with many multinational
corporations, local and overseas tycoons, and private investors setting up business
28%
1-YEAR LENDING RATE

24%
in the city, providing strong support to the local office market. It is understood
that the take-up of prime office space in Chengdu has been at 60,000-139,000 20%

% per annum
sq m per annum. 16%

12%

According to our research, this take-up of office space will increase by about 20% 8%

per annum over the coming years, translating into demand for 607,200 sq m of 4%

office space. However, with supply in the market in the order of 2.32 million sq m, 0%

1Q 1988

3Q 1989

1Q 1991

3Q 1992

1Q 1994

3Q 1995

1Q 1997

3Q 1998

1Q 2000

3Q 2001

1Q 2003

3Q 2004

1Q 2006

3Q 2007

1Q 2009
average vacancy rates will be over 73%, creating serious oversupply, causing both
office rentals and capital values to suffer from substantial downward pressure over Source: The People’s Bank of China
the next three years. However, given the long-term growth potential in Chengdu,
the office market continues to present opportunities to a number of long-term
investors as the existing supply is expected to be absorbed gradually over time. CHENGDU PROPERTY YIELDS

14%
In the retail sector, the highlight of the market was the launch of Silver Stone 12%
for sale in December 2009. The project is one of the city’s most famous mixed 10%
commercial developments, comprising an office block, a five-star hotel and an 8%
upper-end shopping mall 6%

4%

2%

0%
1Q 2004
2Q 2004
3Q 2004
4Q 2004
1Q 2005
2Q 2005
3Q 2005
4Q 2005
1Q 2006
2Q 2006
3Q 2006
4Q 2006
1Q 2007
2Q 2007
3Q 2007
4Q 2007
1Q 2008
2Q 2008
3Q 2008
4Q 2008
1Q 2009
2Q 2009
3Q 2009
4Q 2009
Office

Source: Colliers

MAJOR INVESTMENT TRANSACTIONS


Development Floor Area Lump Sum Price Seller Buyer
(sq m) (RMB million) (US$ million)
Office
Tian Fu Avenue 3,000 23.40 3.43 Zhong Xin Mei Di Real Estate Local company
Development Co,.Ltd
Dong Avenue 20,000 1,500.00 219.68 Hua Yang Nian Real Estate Local investors
Co.,Ltd
Ren Min South Road 60,000 4,200.00 615.10 Xin Xi Wang Real Estate Local investors
Development Co,.Ltd
Note: US$1 = RMB 6.8282

6 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | REGIONAL RESEARCH


INVESTMENT MARKET OVERVIEW | FOURTH QUARTER | 2009

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

CHINA - GUANGZHOU

T he stimulus measures gradually took effect in the second half of 2009.


Since the minimum downpayment was lowered to 20%, more prospective
purchasers have been prompted to enter the market, thus leading to an increase 28%
1-YEAR LENDING RATE

in activity in the sales market during the period. 24%

20%

Despite the substantial accumulated price growth, property prices continued to

% per annum
16%

remain on an upward trend due to the sustained buying interest among both 12%

foreign and domestic investors. Some of the latest sales transactions included 8%

the en bloc transaction of Kaisa Plaza and the acquisition of five floors in Nanya 4%

Zhong He Plaza by the Guangdong Development Bank. 0%

1Q 1988

3Q 1989

1Q 1991

3Q 1992

1Q 1994

3Q 1995

1Q 1997

3Q 1998

1Q 2000

3Q 2001

1Q 2003

3Q 2004

1Q 2006

3Q 2007

1Q 2009
Although tightening measures were implemented by the Government, property
Source: The People’s Bank of China
developers determined that they would go ahead with their investment plans by
building up their land banks for development. One of the most notable sales
transactions was the successful acquisition by a consortium comprising R&F GUANGZHOU PROPERTY YIELDS
Properties, Agile Property and Country Garden of a plot of land in Asian Games
16%
City. With a total site area of 2.64 million sq ft, the site was sold for RMB25.5
14%
billion, a record high land price in China. 12%

% per annum 10%

Looking ahead, the total volume of sales transactions in the local real estate 8%

market is expected to slow over the coming few months due to the cooling, anti- 6%

speculation measures implemented recently by the Government. Meanwhile, with 4%

expectations of a higher interest rate cycle, the real estate market as a whole will 2%

0%
see additional downward pressure over the near term.
1Q 2004
2Q 2004
3Q 2004
4Q 2004
1Q 2005
2Q 2005
3Q 2005
4Q 2005
1Q 2006
2Q 2006
3Q 2006
4Q 2006
1Q 2007
2Q 2007
3Q 2007
4Q 2007
1Q 2008
2Q 2008
3Q 2008
4Q 2008
1Q 2009
2Q 2009
3Q 2009
4Q 2009
Office Residential Retail Industrial

Source: Colliers

MAJOR INVESTMENT TRANSACTIONS


Development Floor Area Lump Sum Price Seller Buyer
(sq m) (RMB million) (US$ million)
Office
R&F Yingyue International 12,000 300.00 43.94 R&F Group Infinitus (China) Co Ltd
Nanya Zhong He Plaza 11,941 346.29 50.71 Nanya Group Guangdong
Development Bank
International Creative Valley 4,561 47.00 6.88 KWG Property IT Company
International Creative Valley 1,000 14.50 2.12 KWG Property Individual
Kaisa Plaza 117,575 2,817.50 412.63 Kaisa Group Foreign Insurance Company
Office & Retail
R&F Yingyue International 16,000 420.00 61.51 R&F Group Shanghai Pudong
Development Bank
Residential
Gold Arch Residence 186 6.39 0.94 Individual Individual
Note: US$1 = RMB 6.8282

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | REGIONAL RESEARCH 7


INVESTMENT MARKET OVERVIEW | FOURTH QUARTER | 2009

CHINA - SHANGHAI

D ue to abundant liquidity as a result of the Central Government’s economic


stimulus policies, Shanghai’s investment sales market became much more
active during the second half of 2009. Most buyers were domestic investors or end- 28%
1-YEAR LENDING RATE

users with strong balance sheets. Commercial properties were more popular than 24%

residential in terms of the number of sales transactions during the period. 20%

% per annum
16%

Recent office transactions included the sale of the 18th floor of Shui-On Plaza at 12%

a price of RMB52,000 per sq m in late December and the acquisition of a 30% 8%

stake at K. Wah Centre by K. Wah at an average price of around RMB36,000 per 4%

sq m. Meanwhile, in Pudong Lujiazui, the Agriculture Bank of China purchased 0%

1Q 1988

3Q 1989

1Q 1991

3Q 1992

1Q 1994

3Q 1995

1Q 1997

3Q 1998

1Q 2000

3Q 2001

1Q 2003

3Q 2004

1Q 2006

3Q 2007

1Q 2009
one tower of Pujiang Shuanghui Towers for RMB4.83 billion in September
2009. The floors from the 1/F to the 41/F in the other tower had been acquired
Source: The People’s Bank of China
previously at a price of RMB3.77 billion. In addition, a major portion of Pufa
Tower was sold to the Hainan Air Group in October 2009 for RMB1.5 billion.
In August 2009, SOHO made its first investment deal in Shanghai by acquiring SHANGHAI PROPERTY YIELDS
The Exchange on Nanjing West Road for RMB2.45 billion. The building has
16%
an above ground GFA of 71,671 sq m.
14%

12%

There were also a couple of notable retail transactions during 2H2009, including % per annum 10%

the sale of InPoint, an 11,000 sq m retail property near Nanjing West Road, for 8%

an average price of RMB45,000 per sq m in October 2009, as well as the sale of 6%

the 3,000 sq m retail facility of Jinlin Tiandi in November 2009 at a total price 4%

of RMB400 million. In the residential sector, the 27-storey serviced apartment 2%

0%
block comprising 103 units at Shama Luxe in Xintiandi was sold for RMB928
1Q 2004
2Q 2004
3Q 2004
4Q 2004
1Q 2005
2Q 2005
3Q 2005
4Q 2005
1Q 2006
2Q 2006
3Q 2006
4Q 2006
1Q 2007
2Q 2007
3Q 2007
4Q 2007
1Q 2008
2Q 2008
3Q 2008
4Q 2008
1Q 2009
2Q 2009
3Q 2009
4Q 2009
million in December 2009.
Office Residential Retail Industrial

Looking ahead, it is likely that the volume of market activity will remain buoyant Source: Colliers

throughout 2010. Office investment yields, currently fetching around 7.0%,


are predicted to edge down further due to the sustained buying interest in the
marketplace.

MAJOR INVESTMENT TRANSACTIONS


Development Floor Area Lump Sum Price Seller Buyer
(sq m) (RMB million) (US$ million)
Office
Pujiang Shuanghui Towers 189,445 8,476.00 1,241.32 CITIC Pacific /CSSC Agriculture Bank of China
Pufa Tower 41,773 1,475.00 216.02 Shanghai Guosheng Hainan Air Group
The Exchange 71,671 2,450.00 358.81 Morgan Stanley SOHO China
Residential
Shama Luxe at Xintiandi 15,472 928.00 135.91 Mirae Asset Maps Investment SOCAM
Retail
Jinlin Tiandi 3,167 400.00 58.58 Undisclosed A Singapore Fund
Note: US$1 = RMB 6.8282

8 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | REGIONAL RESEARCH


INVESTMENT MARKET OVERVIEW | FOURTH QUARTER | 2009

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

HONG KONG

D espite the pre-emptive measures implemented by the HKMA, the real estate
investment market showed no signs of significant consolidation in terms of
the number of sales transactions across the various property sectors. First, thanks 28%
HONG KONG 3-MONTH HIBOR

to the continued inflow of capital, the average cost of capital came down further 24%

during 2H2009. For example, the three-month Hong Kong interbank offered 20%

rates (3M-HIBOR) fell 22 basis points to 0.14% as at the end of December 2009.

% per annum
16%
As such, positive carry emerged in the prime office market as mortgage rates for
12%
commercial developments, based on a premium of 150 to 200 basis points above
8%
3M-HIBOR, remained below prevailing office rental yields during the period.
4%

Second, a group of cash-rich private investors continued to dominate the bulk 0%

1Q 1988

3Q 1989

1Q 1991

3Q 1992

1Q 1994

3Q 1995

1Q 1997

3Q 1998

1Q 2000

3Q 2001

1Q 2003

3Q 2004

1Q 2006

3Q 2007

1Q 2009
of activity in the investment market. Fundamentally, the real estate investment
market in the second half of 2009 was equity- rather than debt-driven, as it was
Source: The Hong Kong Monetary Authority
before the financial crisis hit in 3Q2008. Prime office units in traditional business
districts and G/F shops remained the most popular targets for most investors. In
the office sector, a batch of strata-title office units at Grand Millennium Plaza in
Sheung Wan was acquired by investors from mainland China and Taiwan, as well HONG KONG PROPERTY YIELDS

as Hong Kong. In 4Q2009, a Taiwanese company bought two strata-title floors 14%

in the low block of Grand Millennium Plaza for HK$332 million, representing 12%
an average unit price of HK$11,388 per sq ft. In the retail sector, the key sales 10%
transaction was the acquisition of The Pemberton, a vertical retail block in Central
% per annum

8%
with a total floor area of 70,000 sq ft, by a real estate fund for a lump sum of
6%
HK$344 million in December 2009.
4%

Looking ahead, the local real estate investment market is predicted to perform 2%

better in 2010 than in 2009, although there are a number of uncertainties that 0%
1Q 2004
2Q 2004
3Q 2004
4Q 2004
1Q 2005
2Q 2005
3Q 2005
4Q 2005
1Q 2006
2Q 2006
3Q 2006
4Q 2006
1Q 2007
2Q 2007
3Q 2007
4Q 2007
1Q 2008
2Q 2008
3Q 2008
4Q 2008
1Q 2009
2Q 2009
3Q 2009
4Q 2009
might affect the pace of recovery going forward. Obviously, the key risk factor for
local property prices is the reversal of capital flow. Assuming that the volume of
Office Residential Retail Industrial
liquidity will remain in the system over the medium term, say 6-12 months, and
Source: Rating and Valuation Department, HKSAR Government
the average cost of capital continues to stay low, further capital growth in the
real estate sector is expected to be maintained over the next 12 months. Property
investment yields will remain compressed unless there is a sharp rental catch up
in the leasing market during the same period. Office investment yields for quality
buildings in prime locations will stay below the market average of 3.5%.

MAJOR INVESTMENT TRANSACTIONS


Development Floor Area Lump Sum Price Seller Buyer
(sq ft) (HK$ million) (US$million)
Office
27-28/F, Low Block, Grand Millennium Plaza 29,160 332.10 42.58 MGPA Guotai Junan
33/F, Cosco Tower 20,506 253.50 32.50 GIC Local investment company
Retail
G/F, 6-8 Canton Road 1,520 843.00 108.08 Local investor Emperor International
Holdings Ltd
The Pemberton 70,000 344.38 44.15 Local investor AEW
Industrial
Universal Industrial Building Undisclosed 468.00 60.00 Excel Vast (Hong Kong) Ltd Trinity Elite International Ltd
Sunhing Chekiang Godown 252,756 390.00 50.00 Sunhing Group Olympic Creation Ltd
Note: US$1 = HK$7.8

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | REGIONAL RESEARCH 9


INVESTMENT MARKET OVERVIEW | FOURTH QUARTER | 2009

TAIWAN - TAIPEI

T hanks to the relaxed monetary policies implemented by the Government


and the gradual recovery of the external economic environment, the local
real estate investment market benefitted from an increase in the total volume of
TAIPEI INTERBANK CALL LOAN MARKET
WEIGHTED AVERAGES OF
OVERNIGHT INTEREST RATES
28%

sales transactions. According to our research, the real estate investment market 24%

saw total turnover reach NT$61.4 billion in the second half of 2009. Insurance 20%

companies continued to be the key players as they have a vast amount of spare

% per annum
16%

cash to invest. Compared to other financial investment vehicles, commercial real 12%
estate continued to be favoured by a number of insurance companies looking for 8%
a stable rental income stream over time.
4%

0%
The notable deals were the acquisition of Asia Plaza by Shin Kong Life for

1Q 1988

3Q 1989

1Q 1991

3Q 1992

1Q 1994

3Q 1995

1Q 1997

3Q 1998

1Q 2000

3Q 2001

1Q 2003

3Q 2004

1Q 2006

3Q 2007

1Q 2009
NT$11.5 billion and the sale of Cashboxparty KTV retail building to Cathay Life
Source: Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan)
for NT$3 billion. Meanwhile, Nanshan Life acquired Rich 19 office in Taichung
for NT$2.7 billion and Highwealth Construction purchased the Yi Jin Office
building in Taipei and the Asia Rich Tower in Taichung for a total consideration TAIPEI PROPERTY YIELDS
of NT$3.1billion.
16%

14%
Institutional investors continued to stay on the sidelines during 2H2009.
12%
However, due to the sustained low interest rate environment, flexible loan-to- % per annum
10%
value ratios at 70%-80%, the closer collaboration between Taiwan and mainland 8%

China, and the fact that current commercial real estate prices are relatively lower 6%

than in other countries in the region, overseas institutional investors have started 4%

planning a comeback. 2%

0%
1Q 2004
2Q 2004
3Q 2004
4Q 2004
1Q 2005
2Q 2005
3Q 2005
4Q 2005
1Q 2006
2Q 2006
3Q 2006
4Q 2006
1Q 2007
2Q 2007
3Q 2007
4Q 2007
1Q 2008
2Q 2008
3Q 2008
4Q 2008
1Q 2009
2Q 2009
3Q 2009
4Q 2009
Given the ongoing recovery of the global economy and the positive impact
attributed to the signing of the Economic Co-operation Framework Agreement Office Residential Retail Industrial

(ECFA) with mainland China, the local investment market is expected to grow Source: Colliers

in 2010. Real estate prices are predicted to rise thanks to keen buying interest
among prospective investors going forward.

MAJOR INVESTMENT TRANSACTIONS


Development Floor Area Lump Sum Price Seller Buyer
(ping) (NT$ million) (US$ million)
Office
San Gong International Building 2,033 1,070.00 33.41 Hua Nan Bank MassMutual Mercuries Life
Yi Jin Office building Undisclosed 1,869.00 58.35 Jye Tai Precision Industrial Highwealth Construction
Co., Ltd
Rich 19 office Undisclosed 2,652.00 82.80 Highwealth Construction Nan Shan Life Insurance
Asia Rich Tower Undisclosed 1,170.00 36.53 Hong Yu Construction Highwealth Construction
Residential
Starry9 1,035 550.00 17.17 Taiwan Life Insurance GIANT CIRCLE LIMITED
Retail
Cashboxparty KTV retail building 2,295 3,000.00 93.66 Yuan Yi Co., Ltd CathayLife Insurance
Industrial Office
E-park Industrial Office Building 8,048 2,816.00 87.92 Chailease Finance Co., Ltd. Cathay Life Insurance
Asia Plaza 34,787 11,503.00 359.13 CPI ASIA MIRROR Shin Kong Life Insurance
A LIMITED
No. 550 Ruiguang Road industrial office 8,411 3,000.00 93.66 Taiwan Life Insurance Shin Kong Life Insurance
Note : 1 ping = 3. 3 sq m
: US$1 = NT$ 32.03

10 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | REGIONAL RESEARCH


INVESTMENT MARKET OVERVIEW | FOURTH QUARTER | 2009

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

JAPAN - TOKYO

L and values in Tokyo continued to fall across the board, although the pace of
decline narrowed. The overall demand for office space remained weak and
most companies continued to go for cost-saving options, including downsizing and 5%
JAPAN 10-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS

negotiating a better rental rate for their existing premises, rather than relocating.
4%
As a result, the average vacancy rate for Grade A office space had edged up to a
high of over 7% by the end of 2009. 3%

% per annum
The JREIT market remained difficult and office capital values continued to 2%

fall. However, the local Government remained supportive of JREITs with such 1%
measures as clarification of the tax rules for mergers, tightened standards for
listings and the creation of a public/private fund to support lending. Given this 0%

4Q 1998
2Q 1999
4Q 1999
2Q 2000
4Q 2000
2Q 2001
4Q 2001
2Q 2002
4Q 2002
2Q 2003
4Q 2003
2Q 2004
4Q 2004
2Q 2005
4Q 2005
2Q 2006
4Q 2006
2Q 2007
4Q 2007
2Q 2008
4Q 2008
2Q 2009
4Q 2009
continued support, a number of mergers are expected to take place in the first
half of 2010. Source: Bank of Japan

In the sales market, overall activity was slow, particularly in 3Q2009. No


property was acquired by JREITs in 3Q2009 for the first time since the JREIT
TOKYO PROPERTY YIELDS
was introduced in September 2001. In 4Q2009, a few properties were traded
between JREITs and institutional investors, but most developments were 7%

transacted between JREITs and their related companies. Secured Capital Japan 6%

acquired Pacific Century Place Marunouchi, which was defaulted by the DaVinci 5%
fund, for a lump sum of about JPY140 billion. This was the largest transaction
% per annum

4%
in 2009, even larger than the sale in May 2009 of AIG’s headquarters in Japan
3%
for JPY115.5 billion.
2%

Looking ahead, the majority of investors will continue to wait on the sidelines for 1%

clear indications of a recovery in both the economy and the real estate market. 0%
1Q 2004
2Q 2004
3Q 2004
4Q 2004
1Q 2005
2Q 2005
3Q 2005
4Q 2005
1Q 2006
2Q 2006
3Q 2006
4Q 2006
1Q 2007
2Q 2007
3Q 2007
4Q 2007
1Q 2008
2Q 2008
3Q 2008
4Q 2008
1Q 2009
2Q 2009
3Q 2009
4Q 2009
As such, the current bid-ask spread, in particular for quality assets, will remain
wide at least over the near term. Office Residential Industrial

Source: Colliers

MAJOR INVESTMENT TRANSACTIONS


Development Floor Area Lump Sum Price Seller Buyer
(sq m) (Yen billion) (US$million)
Office
Nihon Jisho Daiichi Building 25,561 13.50 146.53 SPC of Simplex Investment Hulic
Advisor
Pacific Century Place Marunouchi 81,752 140.00 1,519.59 SPC of Davinci Advisor Secured Capital Japan
Shinsaibashi Urban Building 25,839 24.40 264.84 Kansai Urban Banking Keihanshin Real Estate
Hankyu 27,369 10.20 110.71 Hankyu REIT, Inc. GK Kairos Funding
Residential
Park Axis Tatsumi Stage 22,480 7.46 81.02 Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd. Nippon Accomodation Fund
Park Axis Toyosu 34,806 14.30 155.22 Mitsui Fudosan Residential Co. Ltd. Nippon Accomodation Fund
Proud Flat Kamata II 5,316 2.98 32.35 Nomura Real Estate Nomura Residential Fund
Development Co. Ltd.
Urban Stage Nihonbashi Yokoyamacho 6,898 3.53 38.32 Tosei Co. Nomura Residential Fund
Fraser Place Howff Shinjuku West Tower 17,929 6.50 70.55 SPC of Re-plus Orix Real Estate
Retail
Cinema and Sports building and mall 107,413 12.00 130.25 A domestic institution investor SEB Asset Management
building of Aeon Maall Chiba New Town
Tsutaya Fukuoka Tenjin 4,532 3.70 40.16 Undisclosed Frontier Real Estate
Investment Co.
Note: US$1 = Yen 92.13

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | REGIONAL RESEARCH 11


INVESTMENT MARKET OVERVIEW | FOURTH QUARTER | 2009

SOUTH KOREA - SEOUL

T he real estate investment market was active in the second half of 2009, with
the market seeing a record high lump sum price of KRW1,843 billion during
3Q2009. In terms of unit price, the deal translated into an average of KRW5.43
6%
KOREA BASE RATE
(7-DAY REPURCHASE RATE)

million per sq m, surpassing the previous high seen in mid-2008. 5%

4%

% per annum
By district, the GBD recorded the highest levels in terms of the size of total floor 3%

area and the lump sum price. Meanwhile, there was only one case in the YBD. 2%
In 4Q2009, overall activity slowed, with only four deals completed during the
1%
period.
0%

2Q 1999
4Q 1999
2Q 2000
4Q 2000
2Q 2001
4Q 2001
2Q 2002
4Q 2002
2Q 2003
4Q 2003
2Q 2004
4Q 2004
2Q 2005
4Q 2005
2Q 2006
4Q 2006
2Q 2007
4Q 2007
2Q 2008
4Q 2008
2Q 2009
4Q 2009
Domestic buyers remained the key group of players in the marketplace during the
second half of 2009, while only four cases including one purchase via a domestic Source: Bank of Korea

REIT were sold to foreign investors. In addition, real estate funds accounted for
the largest slice of the pie during 2H2009. It was noted that competition was
getting stronger and the focus continued to be placed on prime buildings by both SEOUL PROPERTY YIELDS

institutions and funds. Meanwhile, a number of occupiers have been looking to 16%

acquire mid-sized premises. 14%

12%

10%
% per annum
8%

6%

4%

2%

0%
1Q 2004
2Q 2004
3Q 2004
4Q 2004
1Q 2005
2Q 2005
3Q 2005
4Q 2005
1Q 2006
2Q 2006
3Q 2006
4Q 2006
1Q 2007
2Q 2007
3Q 2007
4Q 2007
1Q 2008
2Q 2008
3Q 2008
4Q 2008
1Q 2009
2Q 2009
3Q 2009
Office Retail

Source: Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs, Republic of Korea

MAJOR INVESTMENT TRANSACTIONS

Development Floor Area Lump Sum Price Seller Buyer


(Pyung) (KRW billion) (US$ million)
Office
Cheongjin 8-block(development site) 15,646 390.00 334.91 G-well E&C London Capital Advisores
(LCA)
SK Soonwha Bldg 6,586 92.20 79.18 Samsung Life Insurance RREEF Spezial Invest GmbH
Samsung Life Insurance Bldg.-Naeja 13,008 52.01 44.66 Samsung Life Insurance Samsung Investment Fund
Insong Building 8,562 121.90 104.68 DNDS KOKREF 15 CR-REITs
Pacific Tower 8,786 152.00 130.53 Mirae Asset Maps AM Dohwa Consulting Engineers
M Tower 23,289 47.67 40.94 Mirae Asset Maps AM Individual
Maps Songpa Tower 7,045 67.31 57.80 Mirae Asset Maps AM Hansol Texile
Samsung Life Insurance Bldg.-Nonhyun 21,773 73.89 63.45 Samsung Life Insurance Samsung Investment Fund
Woori Bank Jamsil Center 21,309 210.00 180.33 Woori Bank Jamsil Project Finance Group
Dongyang Securities Bldg 42,346 169.71 145.74 RREEF Investment Samsung Investment Fund
E-Land Gasan Building 11,979 49.00 42.08 E-Land KR-3 CR-REITs
MBC Business Cneter 6,881 92.00 79.00 Foundation for Broadcast Culture KTB Asset Management
Seohyun Building 4,994 44.68 38.37 HSB Property 1 ABS Standard Chartered Korea
First Bank
Neowiz Building 4,822 65.00 55.82 Kookmin Bank Neowiz
Retail
Newcore Gangnam Shopping mall 14,542 220.00 188.92 E-Land Group Newcore Gangnam CR-REITs
Note : 1 Pyung = 3.306 sq m
: US$1 = KRW 1,164.5

12 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | REGIONAL RESEARCH


INVESTMENT MARKET OVERVIEW | FOURTH QUARTER | 2009

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

INDONESIA - JAKARTA

T he overall property market in Jakarta was slow in 2009, notwithstanding the


signs of recovery in the last quarter of 2009. Due to the smooth presidential
election and the gradual improvement of the regional economy, property rentals 16%
BANK INDONESIA RATE

largely held firm, although individual landlords remained flexible on lease 14%

negotiations. 12%

10%

% per annum
Benefitting from the continued improvement of the external environment, the 8%

6%
local office market witnessed an increasing number of lease enquiries in the private
4%
sector. However, the bulk of the occupiers acted cautiously, waiting for more
2%
positive signs to emerge from both the local political and economic fronts.
0%

3Q 2005
4Q 2005
1Q 2006
2Q 2006
3Q 2006
4Q 2006
1Q 2007
2Q 2007
3Q 2007
4Q 2007
1Q 2008
2Q 2008
3Q 2008
4Q 2008
1Q 2009
2Q 2009
3Q 2009
4Q 2009
Of the various property sectors, in terms of both rentals and occupancy, the
local office market experienced immediate growth over the second half of 2009 Source: Bank of Indonesia
due to a revival of lease enquiries and the relatively small new supply coming
on line in 2010.

JAKARTA PROPERTY YIELDS


The retail sector will have to put a lot more effort into this year in order to perform
better, particularly because of the large amount of vacant space and continued 18%

supply projection in the future, and the relatively slow activity among retailers 16%

taking space. The big hope is for the apartment sector. It has been indicated that 14%

12%
the government will revise the regulation that limits foreign ownership, giving
% per annum

10%
foreigners property ownership for up to 75 years upfront instead of the current 25 8%

years (subject to extension). Currently, with numerous vacant units available in 6%

the market, the apartment market is very much relying on this regulation because 4%

local buyers are now becoming limited. In short, we believe that 2010 will offer 2%

0%
much hope for the property industry to perform better than in 2009.
1Q 2004
2Q 2004
3Q 2004
4Q 2004
1Q 2005
2Q 2005
3Q 2005
4Q 2005
1Q 2006
2Q 2006
3Q 2006
4Q 2006
1Q 2007
2Q 2007
3Q 2007
4Q 2007
1Q 2008
2Q 2008
3Q 2008
4Q 2008
1Q 2009
2Q 2009
3Q 2009
4Q 2009
Given a positive projection for GDP growth over 2010 and a much better Office Residential Retail Industrial

outlook in 2011, we believe that the property market will show positive growth Source: Colliers
in 2010. Some positive economic indicators seen early in the year include the
strengthening Rupiah against the US Dollar, relatively steady occupancy rates,
low interest rates and, more importantly, signs that foreign investors are starting
to eye and invest in Indonesia.

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | REGIONAL RESEARCH 13


INVESTMENT MARKET OVERVIEW | FOURTH QUARTER | 2009

PHILIPPINES - MANILA

T he second half of 2009 was a lot better than the first. On the commercial
front, demand shows signs of an imminent recovery over the next six months.
However, despite minimal activity in the construction of office space in Makati
18%
PHILIPPINES REVERSE REPURCHASE RATE
(OVERNIGHT)

16%
CBD, there remains a glut of office space in the market. Vacancy rates are still on 14%

the rise as more space becomes available in many parts of Metro Manila. Rents 12%

for office spaces went down by a total of 20%-25% over the past 18 months, but 10%

expectations point to stable rents in 2010. 8%

6%

4%
In the residential segment, sales take-up of ongoing residential projects in 2%

Metro Manila outperformed expectations. As a result, developers boosted their 0%

1Q 2000
3Q 2000
1Q 2001
3Q 2001
1Q 2002
3Q 2002
1Q 2003
3Q 2003
1Q 2004
3Q 2004
1Q 2005
3Q 2005
1Q 2006
3Q 2006
1Q 2007
3Q 2007
1Q 2008
3Q 2008
1Q 2009
3Q 2009
developments in the pipeline by launching new residential projects for both the
luxury and the middle income markets. The bullish sentiment of developers Source: Central Bank of Philippines
moving forward is highlighted by strategic land acquisitions in various locations
in Metro Manila and the provinces. Some developers are also being aggressive in
expanding their business by entering other segments of the market. For example,
MANILA PROPERTY YIELDS
Ayala Land formed a new group, Amaia, that will offer affordable housing projects
and Robinsons Land signalled its entry into the luxury residential segment by 18%

16%
launching a Makati CBD project called Signa Designer Residences. 14%
% per annum 12%

Average rents for luxury condominiums in Makati CBD continue to correct 10%

slightly as the result of a slight glut in supply. Demand for overall supply in the 8%

6%
secondary rental market remains soft in non-CBD locations. 4%

2%

What will be interesting to see moving forward is the implementation of the 0%


1Q 2004
2Q 2004
3Q 2004
4Q 2004
1Q 2005
2Q 2005
3Q 2005
4Q 2005
1Q 2006
2Q 2006
3Q 2006
4Q 2006
1Q 2007
2Q 2007
3Q 2007
4Q 2007
1Q 2008
2Q 2008
3Q 2008
4Q 2008
1Q 2009
2Q 2009
3Q 2009
4Q 2009
highly anticipated local Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) law, which was
passed in December 2009. With the implementing rules and regulations likely Office Residentail

to be released in 1Q2010, REITs will open up opportunities for the industry to Source: Colliers
finance more projects in the commercial, retail, hospitality, residential and leisure
segments of the market.

MAJOR INVESTMENT TRANSACTIONS

Development Floor Area Lump Sum Price Seller Buyer


(Hectares) (Peso billion) (US$ million)
Office / Residential
Bonifacio North 8.38 3.15 67.97 Bases Conversion and Megaworld Corporation
Development Authority
Quezon City 29.00 6.00 129.43 National Housing Authority Ayala Land, Inc.
(Joint-venture agreement)
Note : US$1 = Peso 46.356

14 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | REGIONAL RESEARCH


INVESTMENT MARKET OVERVIEW | FOURTH QUARTER | 2009

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

SINGAPORE

O n the back of the recent nascent economic recovery seen in Singapore,


the loosening of credit and improved market sentiment, the property
investment sales market garnered a total investment in sale transactions of S$8.92 10%
SINGAPORE 3M-INTERBANK

billion in the second half of 2009, representing nearly three times the level tallied 9%

8%
in the second half of 2008, in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. 7%

6%

% per annum
5%
There was a noticeable increase in the number of deals at and above the S$100
4%
million band in 2H2009, with a total of 15 such transactions registered during 3%

the period. One of the largest deals was the S$541.9-million acquisition of the 99- 2%

1%
year leasehold Clementi Mall from the Government by a joint venture involving 0%
Singapore Press Holdings, NTUC FairPrice Co-Op and NTUC Income Insurance

1Q 1988
4Q 1988
3Q 1989
2Q 1990
1Q 1991
4Q 1991
3Q 1992
2Q 1993
1Q 1994
4Q 1994
3Q 1995
2Q 1996
1Q 1997
4Q 1997
3Q 1998
2Q 1999
1Q 2000
4Q 2000
3Q 2001
2Q 2002
1Q 2003
4Q 2003
3Q 2004
2Q 2005
1Q 2006
4Q 2006
3Q 2007
2Q 2008
1Q 2009
4Q 2009
Co-Op. Another was Frasers Centrepoint Limited’s injection of the S$342.5-
Source: Monetary Authority of Singapore
million Alexandra Technopark, a high-specifications industrial development
into Frasers Commercial Trust.
SINGAPORE PROPERTY YIELDS

In the second half of 2009, the Government announced that it will reinstate the 18%

Confirmed List1 for residential and industrial property development under its 16%

14%
Government Land Sales (GLS) programme for the first half of 2010. However, it
12%
will not introduce any commercial, hotel or white sites to the List over this period, % per annum 10%

preferring to maintain hotel, commercial, residential, commercial/residential 8%

and white sites on the Reserve List2for 1H2010. 6%

4%

2%
Going forward, in line with the modest economic recovery foreseen for the key 0%
1Q 2004
2Q 2004
3Q 2004
4Q 2004
1Q 2005
2Q 2005
3Q 2005
4Q 2005
1Q 2006
2Q 2006
3Q 2006
4Q 2006
1Q 2007
2Q 2007
3Q 2007
4Q 2007
1Q 2008
2Q 2008
3Q 2008
4Q 2008
1Q 2009
2Q 2009
3Q 2009
4Q 2009
global economies, the pick-up in investors’ sentiment and confidence, which
began in the second half of 2009, is likely to continue into 2010. Coupled with
Office Residential Retail Industrial
the unfreezing of the global credit market, the presence of cash-rich investors Source: Colliers
who are likely to raise exposure of their portfolios to property investment, as well 1. Sites on the Confirmed List are released for tender at a pre-determined date without the need for
the sale to be triggered by an application. The number of sites on the Confirmed List in each GLS
as the availability of property investment options at corrected price levels, the programme will depend on market conditions, the strategic need for certain sites to be developed
and other factors.
investment sales market in 2010 is expected to outperform that in 2009. 2. On the Reserve List, the Government will release a site for sale only if an interested party submits
an application for the site to be put up for tender with an offer of a minimum purchase price that
is acceptable to the Government. The successful applicant must undertake to submit a bid for the
site in the ensuing tender at or above the minimum price offered in the application.

MAJOR INVESTMENT TRANSACTIONS


Development Floor Area Lump Sum Price Seller Buyer
(sq ft) (S$ million) (US$ million)
Commercial - Office
Prudential Tower - 6 floors / Cecil Street 67,300 106.29 75.74 APF Property Investments (S) K-REIT Asia
Pte Ltd
Aviva Building / Cecil Street 67,708 65.00 46.32 Aviva Sommerville Development
Residential
Development Site / Dakota Crescent 647,599* 329.00 234.43 Urban Redevelopment Authority UOL Group
Development Site at Former The Parisian / 137,519* 283.00 201.65 Overseas Union Enterprise China Sonangol Land Pte Ltd
Angullia Park
Development Site / Jalan Senang/Lengkong Tujoh 434,700* 158.00 112.58 Lee Tat Developmemt Hoi Hup and Sunway Group
Commercial - Retail
Clementi Mall / Commonwealth Avenue West / 193,750 541.90 386.13 Housing Development Board Singapore Press Holdings and
Clementi Avenue 3 NTUC FairPrice Co-Op and
NTUC Income Insurance Co-Op
Katong Mall / East Coast Road 172,170 247.55 176.39 Tuan Sing Holdings Perennial Katong Retail Trust
Industrial
Alexandra Technopark / Alexandra Road 1,048,607 342.50 244.05 Orrick Investments Pte Limited Frasers Commercial Trust
Soon Hock Holding Logistics Building / 444,043 43.00 30.64 SH Cogent Logistics Mapletree Logistics Trust
Penjuru Close
Note: US$1 = S$ 1.4034
* Potential gross floor area

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | REGIONAL RESEARCH 15


INVESTMENT MARKET OVERVIEW | FOURTH QUARTER | 2009

THAILAND - BANGKOK

T he overall investment market remained weak during the second half of


2009 due to the prevailing uncertainty about the political environment in
Thailand. The current uncertainty on the approval of various environmental 10%
THAILAND 3M-BIBOR

regulations for the Map Ta Phut Industrial Estate has cast a shadow over industrial
8%
investment in Thailand.
6%

% per annum
Overall, the registered capital of applications submitted for investment approval 4%
fell nearly 6% year-on-year (YoY) from THB418 billion to THB393.2 billion during
the period between January and November 2009 and there was a reduction in 2%

investment flow from foreign investors. For example, investment from Japan 0%

declined 44% YoY to THB54.6 billion, although demand attributed to local

1Q 2005
2Q 2005
3Q 2005
4Q 2005
1Q 2006
2Q 2006
3Q 2006
4Q 2006
1Q 2007
2Q 2007
3Q 2007
4Q 2007
1Q 2008
2Q 2008
3Q 2008
4Q 2008
1Q 2009
2Q 2009
3Q 2009
4Q 2009
investors was relatively strong.
Source: Bank of Thailand

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in real estate stood at THB6.89 billion in


3Q2009, representing a fall of 36% YoY. Going forward, the prospective role of
BANGKOK PROPERTY YIELDS
FDI in the local real estate market will remain largely uncertain.
18%

No new property stocks were listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) 16%

14%
during the second half of 2009. However, the Thanasiri Group became the
12%
first property developer to list on SET’s Market for Alternative Investment. The
% per annum

10%

company specialises in landed housing projects in Nonthaburi and Phuket, and 8%

has a registered capital of THB255 million. 6%

4%

2%
Four new property funds were listed on the SET during the second half of 2009. 0%
1Q 2004
2Q 2004
3Q 2004
4Q 2004
1Q 2005
2Q 2005
3Q 2005
4Q 2005
1Q 2006
2Q 2006
3Q 2006
4Q 2006
1Q 2007
2Q 2007
3Q 2007
4Q 2007
1Q 2008
2Q 2008
3Q 2008
4Q 2008
1Q 2009
2Q 2009
3Q 2009
4Q 2009
TPARK Logistics Property Fund (TLOGIS) is worth THB1.533 billion and will
invest in land, warehouses and cold storage facilities at Ticon Logistics Park.
Office Residential Retail Industrial
Sala@sathorn Property Fund has invested in the Sala@sathorn office building
Source: Colliers
and is worth THB1.67 billion. The MFC Strategic Storage Fund was set up with
a capitalisation of THB608 million and invests in cold storage facilities. The 101
Montri Property Storage Fund, worth THB603 million, invests in warehouse
facilities.

MAJOR INVESTMENT TRANSACTIONS

Development Floor Area Lump Sum Price Seller Buyer


(sq m) (Baht million) (US$ million)
Office
Sathorn Road 2,706 1,000.00 29.98 CIMB Thai Bank Undisclosed
Surawong Road 3,976 500.00 14.99 Leenuttapong Family TCC Group
Sala @ Sathorn, Sathorn Road 2,924 1,649.40 49.44 St. Louise Holding Co.,Ltd. Sala @ Sathorn Property
Fund
Retail
Central Plaza Pinklao, 185,671 5,680.00 170.27 Central Pattana PCL CPN Retail Growth
Boromarajajinani Road Property Fund
Industrial
TICON Logistics Park - Wangnoi and 144,448 1,530.00 45.86 TICON Industrial TICON TPARK Logistics Logistics
Park - Bangna PCL Connection Property Fund
Rama 2 Road, Muang 11,132 142.50 4.27 North Agricultural Co.,Ltd. MFC - Strategic Storage Fund
Note: US$1 = THB33.359

16 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | REGIONAL RESEARCH


INVESTMENT MARKET OVERVIEW | FOURTH QUARTER | 2009

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

VIETNAM - HO CHI MINH CITY

C ompared with other major cities in the region, the real estate investment
market in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) is currently in the early stages of
development. Regarding market size, the number of investment-grade assets
9%
VIETNAM REAL GDP GROWTH

8%
available for sale to both local and overseas investors has been very limited. For

Cumulative Year-on-Year Change


7%

example, the total size of the Grade A office market in HCMC is 105,000 sq 6%

m of floor area in six buildings. A similar situation is seen in the local serviced 5%

apartment and retail markets. Meanwhile, in the industrial sector, speculative 4%

projects being built for lease are virtually non-existent. Industrial manufactures 3%

2%
usually lease land by paying a capital sum in advance and then build their own
1%
facilities to suit their needs. In addition, market transparency remains an issue 0%
as investment yields are not publicly available and nearly every sales transaction

1Q 2005
2Q 2005
3Q 2005
4Q 2005
1Q 2006
2Q 2006
3Q 2006
4Q 2006
1Q 2007
2Q 2007
3Q 2007
4Q 2007
1Q 2008
2Q 2008
3Q 2008
4Q 2008
1Q 2009
2Q 2009
3Q 2009
4Q 2009
is regarded as a special purchase.
Source: The State Bank of Vietnam

During the good years before the financial crisis, a number of international real
estate investment trust (REIT) players visited Vietnam and prepared to acquire
local real estate at 7.5%. This reflected a country risk of about 2.5 percentage
points higher than the typical 5% benchmark yields in other cities in the region.
However, yield expectations changed at the beginning of 2008 when inflation
in Vietnam rose as high as 25% per annum. Prospective investors changed their VIETNAM PRIME INTEREST RATE

strategies to acquire distressed assets at yields of no less than 20% per annum. 16%

With market volatility and a lack of real estate assets available for sale, the market 14%

has seen a thin volume of sales transaction over the past four years. 12%

10%
% Per annum

Over the medium term, the local real estate investment market will see yields 8%

falling to between 12% and 15% per annum for prime assets with quality 6%

management. Special purchasers, such as REITS, are willing to accept very low 4%

yields, although distressed asset buyers will anticipate high yields. Prime office 2%

properties available for lease to most international tenants will be on the lower 0%
1Q 2004
2Q 2004
3Q 2004
4Q 2004
1Q 2005
2Q 2005
3Q 2005
4Q 2005
1Q 2006
2Q 2006
3Q 2006
4Q 2006
1Q 2007
2Q 2007
3Q 2007
4Q 2007
1Q 2008
2Q 2008
3Q 2008
4Q 2008
1Q 2009
2Q 2009
3Q 2009
4Q 2009
end of the yield range (i.e. 12%), while industrial properties will show yields of
around 15%. It should be noted that the above range is assumed on the basis
Source: Colliers
of an international purchaser. Local real estate buyers usually adopt a different
attitude to risk as Vietnamese citizens are permitted to acquire freehold properties.
Foreign investors are allowed to purchase leasehold interests but there remains
uncertainty concerning the security of tenures. From a legal perspective, it is
still unclear whether or not leaseholders have the right to renew after the lease
expires.

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | REGIONAL RESEARCH 17


INVESTMENT MARKET OVERVIEW | FOURTH QUARTER | 2009

INDIA

I ndia’s overall economy showed signs of recovery during the second half
of 2009, with various factors suggesting that the country’s economy has
bounced back and the Finance Ministry projecting a growth in GDP of 7.75% 10%
INDIA REPO RATE

9%
for 2009-10. Indian industry continued to show robust recovery, with a growth 8%
rate touching a 25-month high of 11.7% in November 2009. The latest foreign 7%

direct investment (FDI) numbers have also shown renewed growth, an indicator 6%

Per annum
of long-term expectations for the economy. However, a large portion of FDI is 5%

4%
tending to go into sectors where the average capital requirement is also high, 3%
such as the core sectors of real estate and power. 2%

1%

Institutional investors have been actively looking for investment opportunities, 0%

1Q 2004
2Q 2004
3Q 2004
4Q 2004
1Q 2005
2Q 2005
3Q 2005
4Q 2005
1Q 2006
2Q 2006
3Q 2006
4Q 2006
1Q 2007
2Q 2007
3Q 2007
4Q 2007
1Q 2008
2Q 2008
3Q 2008
4Q 2008
1Q 2009
2Q 2009
3Q 2009
4Q 2009
with the residential sector being the most sought after due to encouraging signs
of economic recovery, cheaper entry price levels, lower borrowing costs and the
Source: Reserve Bank of India
inherent demand for housing.

The office market also showed signs of recovery, with a revival of leasing activity
during the second half of 2009. India-focused funds, as compared to global funds,
have been more active as many global funds continued to adopt a wait-and-see
strategy. A number of other funds, including Red Fort Capital, Edelweiss, ASK INDIA REAL GDP GROWTH
Investments and ICICI Ventures, have been actively raising funds for local 12%
investment opportunities.
10%

Prompted by the positive signs of economic recovery, a number of realty


Year-on-Year Change

8%

companies, including Lodha Sahara Prime City, Emaar MGF and BPTP, filed 6%
draft red herring prospectuses (DRHPs) with the Securities Exchange Board of
4%
India for IPO listing in 1Q2010. Several listed companies, such as DLF, Unitech,
Indiabulls Real Estate, Sobha Developers and HDIL, went in for successful 2%

qualified institutional placements or promoter stake sales and raised over US$2 0%

billion. The ability of listed realty players to raise funds gave privately held firms
1Q 2004
2Q 2004
3Q 2004
4Q 2004
1Q 2005
2Q 2005
3Q 2005
4Q 2005
1Q 2006
2Q 2006
3Q 2006
4Q 2006
1Q 2007
2Q 2007
3Q 2007
4Q 2007
1Q 2008
2Q 2008
3Q 2008
4Q 2008
1Q 2009
2Q 2009
3Q 2009
the confidence to look into the primary market.
Source: Central Statistical Organisation, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation,
Government of India
On the policy front, the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy gave the directive
to banks to increase standard provisioning norms on loans for commercial real
estate from 0.4% to 1.0%. This represented an increase in interest costs, which
the market perceived as a reduction of funding that will be available to developers
in the future. However, it was regarded as the right pre-emptive move to prevent
the formation of a local real estate market asset bubble.

18 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | REGIONAL RESEARCH


INVESTMENT MARKET OVERVIEW | FOURTH QUARTER | 2009

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

AUSTRALIA - ADELAIDE

AUSTRALIA OCR

F
10%
ollowing an increase in vacancy levels in July 2009 to 4.8%, demand levels
have now begun to stabilise with an improvement anticipated in 2010. In the 8%

early part of 2010, overall vacancy rates will be impacted only by the additional 6%

% per annum
stock completed in 2009. Currently, an estimated 22,000 sq m remains seeking
pre-commitment in these developments. A modest outlook suggests that there 4%

will be some vacant stock in 1Q2010, resulting in a further increase in overall 2%

vacancy rates to 6.0%-6.5%. By mid-2010, vacancy rates will start to tighten and
are expected to fall back to below 6%. 0%

1Q 2000
3Q 2000
1Q 2001
3Q 2001
1Q 2002
3Q 2002
1Q 2003
3Q 2003
1Q 2004
3Q 2004
1Q 2005
3Q 2005
1Q 2006
3Q 2006
1Q 2007
3Q 2007
1Q 2008
3Q 2008
1Q 2009
3Q 2009
Development activity will be limited until at least 2011 as the ability to secure Source: Reserve Bank of Australia

funding for many projects has been difficult. Given this, no new development
projects were announced in 4Q2009. Currently, any future new project will
coincide with tenant pre-commitment, thus helping to keep vacancy rates low
going forward. ADELAIDE PROPERTY YIELDS

16%
On the sales front, institutions continued to unload their portfolios in an attempt 14%

to reduce their overall debt levels, causing a two-fold increase in the number of 12%

sales transactions in 2009. Although only two major investment transactions were 10%
% per annum

completed in 3Q2009, overall activity is expected to increase in 2010. 8%

6%

4%
In the industrial sector, the overall volume of sales transactions fell in the
2%
second half of 2009 due to the withdrawal of institutions from the buying
0%
arena, notwithstanding the sustained buying interests from a number of private
1Q 2004
2Q 2004
3Q 2004
4Q 2004
1Q 2005
2Q 2005
3Q 2005
4Q 2005
1Q 2006
2Q 2006
3Q 2006
4Q 2006
1Q 2007
2Q 2007
3Q 2007
4Q 2007
1Q 2008
2Q 2008
3Q 2008
4Q 2008
1Q 2009
2Q 2009
3Q 2009
4Q 2009
investors. Given that the same conditions are expected to prevail over the short
term, investment yields for premises located in less-established areas may increase. Office Industrial

Overall, demand for units priced at AU$3 million or below is expected to remain Source: Colliers

strong.

Leasing demand remained stable for the traditional inner industrial precincts,
fuelling further rental growth during the second half of 2009. Looking forward,
the market will see an increase in activity in the first half of 2010 if more stock
is released onto the market.

MAJOR INVESTMENT TRANSACTIONS


Development Floor Area Lump Sum Price Seller Buyer
(sq m) (AUD million) (US$ million)
Office
199 Grenfell Street 5,061 13.75 12.33 Becton Investment Management Private Investor
115 Grenfell Street 13,903 41.00 36.77 Investa Funds Management Local Private Investor
80 King William Street 8,474 21.75 19.51 Trinity Limited Local Private Investor
Retail
Firle Plaza, 171 Glynburn Road 12,143 37.75 33.86 ISPT Firle Property Management
Pty Ltd
Industrial
Allotment 101 Cavan Road & 20,466 15.00 13.45 Celdann Pty Ltd Cavan Property Unit Trust
8-10 Waldaree Street
Note: US$1 = AUD1.1150

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | REGIONAL RESEARCH 19


INVESTMENT MARKET OVERVIEW | FOURTH QUARTER | 2009

AUSTRALIA - CANBERRA

I nvestor confidence in the Canberra commercial property market improved in


2009. The completed sales of Industry House, 64 Allara Street and 10 Rudd
Street, impending sale of the ATO Building and 82 Northbourne Avenue, and
10%
AUSTRALIA OCR

improved sentiment from both international and national institutions have 8%

helped narrow the gap between the expectations of vendors and buyers. Prime
6%

% per annum
office buildings have been particularly sought after due to the security of long-
term government leases and attractive yields. 4%

2%
The outlook for non-contemporary accommodation will be less optimistic and
capital values are expected to fall further, albeit at a slower rate. The market 0%

1Q 2000
3Q 2000
1Q 2001
3Q 2001
1Q 2002
3Q 2002
1Q 2003
3Q 2003
1Q 2004
3Q 2004
1Q 2005
3Q 2005
1Q 2006
3Q 2006
1Q 2007
3Q 2007
1Q 2008
3Q 2008
1Q 2009
3Q 2009
dynamics have changed, with a widening gap between old and new building
stock in terms of rental values, yields and capital value rates. Tenants in older Source: Reserve Bank of Australia

accommodation now have greater bargaining power, which will reduce rental
growth and increase incentive levels. Non-market review mechanisms in existing
leases have created a situation where many secondary buildings have passing
CANBERRA PROPERTY YIELDS
income in excess of market levels. This will change as market reviews, renewals
and new lettings take effect, and reduce net income and capital values. 16%

14%

12%
The migration of tenants from old to new stock has caused a sharp increase
10%
in sub-leasing vacancy levels, which have doubled from 1.3% to 2.6% in the
% per annum

8%
Canberra region. The delivery of new stock without pre-commitments over the 6%

past 12 months has caused vacancy levels to increase for Grade A premises, a 4%

trend that will continue in 2010. However, it will be corrected over the next few 2%

years as new stock absorbs demand from second-tier developments. 0%


1Q 2004
2Q 2004
3Q 2004
4Q 2004
1Q 2005
2Q 2005
3Q 2005
4Q 2005
1Q 2006
2Q 2006
3Q 2006
4Q 2006
1Q 2007
2Q 2007
3Q 2007
4Q 2007
1Q 2008
2Q 2008
3Q 2008
4Q 2008
1Q 2009
2Q 2009
3Q 2009
4Q 2009
The quality of Canberra stock will continue as new developments are completed Office

over the next few years, in addition to the significant amount that has been
Source: Colliers
delivered over the past three years. We expect yields to be relatively stable over the
short to medium term and incremental capital growth to be achieved for prime
assets that meet contemporary standards. Secondary assets with inflated passing
rents are likely to experience further capital depreciation over the short term and
might be considered for major refurbishment and/or redevelopment.

MAJOR INVESTMENT TRANSACTIONS


Development Floor Area Lump Sum Price Seller Buyer
(sq m) (AUD million) (US$ million)
Office
10 Rudd Street 4,736 18.70 16.77 Mirvac Private
4 Marcus Clarke 2,354 9.70 8.70 Cromwell Private
19-25 Moore Street 3,559 12.40 11.12 Becton Private
7-11 Barry Drive 2,375 8.59 7.70 Private Private
82 Northbourne 7,000 44.00 39.46 Private Private
Note: US$1 = AUD1.1150

20 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | REGIONAL RESEARCH


INVESTMENT MARKET OVERVIEW | FOURTH QUARTER | 2009

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

AUSTRALIA - MELBOURNE

D ue to positive economic results, including positive GDP growth and strong


job growth figures, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) started to increase
interest rates from the lows in October 2009 with three consecutive increases of
10%
AUSTRALIA OCR

25 basis points in October, November and December 2009 to the current level 8%

of 3.75%. The national unemployment rate reached a high of 5.9% in 2009


6%

% per annum
but declined to 5.5% in December 2009, with many economic commentators
believing that the unemployment rate has now peaked. Strong employment 4%

growth and a substantial growth in house prices put additional pressure on the
2%
RBA to lift rates.
0%

1Q 2000
3Q 2000
1Q 2001
3Q 2001
1Q 2002
3Q 2002
1Q 2003
3Q 2003
1Q 2004
3Q 2004
1Q 2005
3Q 2005
1Q 2006
3Q 2006
1Q 2007
3Q 2007
1Q 2008
3Q 2008
1Q 2009
3Q 2009
Private and offshore investors dominated the bulk of sales activity in 2009.
Investment sales transactions (on sales in excess of AU$10 million) in Melbourne’s Source: Reserve Bank of Australia

CBD totalled AU$600 million in 2009. The major highlight in 2009 was the sale
of 15 William Street in June 2009 to Deka Immobilien Investment. The short-
and long-term appeal of the Melbourne CBD office market has been enhanced, MELBOURNE PROPERTY YIELDS
bringing forward demand from active European and Asian groups. The results of
the latest Colliers International Investor Sentiment Survey 3Q2009 also indicate 16%

14%
that investors believe that the market has seen its bottom and is poised for an
12%
upswing as early as mid-2010. In the survey, the Melbourne CBD office market % per annum
10%
was identified as one of the top two locations offering the best investment value 8%

over the next 12 months. 6%

4%

Leasing activity levels remained steady during the second half of 2009, with a 2%

number of significant leasing transactions taking place in quality office buildings 0%


1Q 2004
2Q 2004
3Q 2004
4Q 2004
1Q 2005
2Q 2005
3Q 2005
4Q 2005
1Q 2006
2Q 2006
3Q 2006
4Q 2006
1Q 2007
2Q 2007
3Q 2007
4Q 2007
1Q 2008
2Q 2008
3Q 2008
4Q 2008
1Q 2009
2Q 2009
3Q 2009
4Q 2009
as landlords continued to offer attractive incentives. Net office rentals for prime
grade stock remain stable. Office Industrial

Source: Colliers
In the industrial sector, there was an improvement in both sales and leasing
activity in the second half of 2009. Investment yields for prime assets remained
stable and were at 8.50% as of 4Q2009, while second-tier industrial developments
were between 10% and 11%.

MAJOR INVESTMENT TRANSACTIONS


Development Floor Area Lump Sum Price Seller Buyer
(sq m) (AUD million) (US$ million)
Office
128 Exhibition Street 4,737 18.00 16.14 Undisclosed Salvest Capital
410 Elizabeth Street 6,091 15.00 13.45 Private Undisclosed
350 Collins Street 17,798 51.05 45.78 Orchard Funds Management Prime Value
456 Lonsdale Street 8,427 27.00 24.22 Macquarie Direct Private Investor
Industrial
324 Frankston Dandenong Road 29,042 20.20 18.12 AMP Capital Prime West
1-23 Wirraway Drive 7,915 18.90 16.95 Salta Properties Private Investor
Lot 5, Horsburgh Drive 18,020 22.00 19.73 Undisclosed Private Investor
Note: US$1 = AUD1.1150

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | REGIONAL RESEARCH 21


INVESTMENT MARKET OVERVIEW | FOURTH QUARTER | 2009

AUSTRALIA - PERTH

I nvestment sales transactions remained subdued in the second half of 2009, with
four major transactions occurring in the CBD. The largest one was the sale to an
institutional investor of a 50% stake in a fully pre-committed office development.
10%
AUSTRALIA OCR

Uncertainty in the future course of the office market in combination with tight 8%

credit conditions remain the major challenges facing transaction volumes.


6%

% per annum
Yields for the Perth CBD have stabilised to an average of circa 7.5% after softening 4%

in the first half of 2009. With the rising level of optimism over the past six months, 2%
investment yields may begin to tighten in 2010. Foreign investors continue to
favour Perth as a favourable investment location in Western Australia for supplying 0%

1Q 2000
3Q 2000
1Q 2001
3Q 2001
1Q 2002
3Q 2002
1Q 2003
3Q 2003
1Q 2004
3Q 2004
1Q 2005
3Q 2005
1Q 2006
3Q 2006
1Q 2007
3Q 2007
1Q 2008
3Q 2008
1Q 2009
3Q 2009
minerals and natural gas to the world.
Source: Reserve Bank of Australia

On the industrial front, the number of investment transactions fell significantly


in 2009. Demand for sizeable developments is apparent in the marketplace,
however limited stock is available for sale. Many investors are looking for bargains PERTH PROPERTY YIELDS
but there are very few distressed assets available over the short term. Yields will
range between 8.0% and 9.5% in 2010 as investors remain largely cautious. 16%

14%

12%
Interest rates in Australia have risen in 2009 and are likely to rise further in 2010 % per annum
10%
as the Reserve Bank of Australia will act pre-emptively in order to dampen any 8%

uncontrollable inflation. If there is no corresponding growth on the economic 6%

front, the prospective increase in interest rates will result in low investment 4%

activity in 2010. 2%

0%
1Q 2004
2Q 2004
3Q 2004
4Q 2004
1Q 2005
2Q 2005
3Q 2005
4Q 2005
1Q 2006
2Q 2006
3Q 2006
4Q 2006
1Q 2007
2Q 2007
3Q 2007
4Q 2007
1Q 2008
2Q 2008
3Q 2008
4Q 2008
1Q 2009
2Q 2009
3Q 2009
4Q 2009
Office Industrial

Source: Colliers

MAJOR INVESTMENT TRANSACTIONS


Development Floor Area Lump Sum Price Seller Buyer
(sq m) (AUD million) (US$ million)
Office
58 Mounts Bay Road 22,294 95.00* 85.20 Charter Hall Commonwealth Property
Office Fund
6 King Park Road 1,553 10.30 9.24 Finander Pty Ltd Chyreck Nominees Pty Ltd
23 Barrack Street 960 7.50 6.73 MPH Resources Pty Ltd Hire Intelligence
International Ltd
53-55 Ord Street 6,864 41.50 37.22 Cfs Managed Property Ltd Perpetual Corporate Trust
Retail
622- 646 Hay Street 24,076 114.50 102.69 CPT Manager Limited Starhill Global REIT
Industrial
52-64 Sheffield Rd 3,639 9.35 8.39 Trust Co of Australia Ltd Argosy Nominees Pty Ltd
Note: US$1 = AUD1.1150
* 50% share

22 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | REGIONAL RESEARCH


INVESTMENT MARKET OVERVIEW | FOURTH QUARTER | 2009

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

AUSTRALIA - SYDNEY

After reducing the official cash rate to a 50-year low of 3.00% in April 2009, the
AUSTRALIA OCR
RBA started to move interest rates up from the lows in October 2009 with three
10%
consecutive increases of 25 basis points in October, November and December
to the current 3.75%. These increases occurred due to positive economic results, 8%

including positive GDP growth and strong job growth figures. The national
6%

% per annum
unemployment rate reached a high of 5.9% in 2009 but declined to 5.7% and
held steady in 4Q2009. Concerns in early 2009 that the unemployment rate would 4%

escalate to between 7% and 8% have abated and the rate is now not expected to 2%
go beyond current levels. Stronger than expected retail sales in November and
December 2009, as well as rising house prices, put additional pressure on the 0%

1Q 2000
3Q 2000
1Q 2001
3Q 2001
1Q 2002
3Q 2002
1Q 2003
3Q 2003
1Q 2004
3Q 2004
1Q 2005
3Q 2005
1Q 2006
3Q 2006
1Q 2007
3Q 2007
1Q 2008
3Q 2008
1Q 2009
3Q 2009
RBA to lift rates further.
Source: Reserve Bank of Australia

Overall, the second half of 2009 saw a strong increase in sales activity within
Sydney’s CBD, with AU$105 million worth of major office sales taking place in
3Q2009 and a massive AU$808 million in 4Q2009. The major highlight of 2009 SYDNEY PROPERTY YIELDS
was the sale in December 2009 of Aurora Place at 88 Phillip Street to South Korean
National Pension Service. The sale represented the first of a major premium-grade 16%

14%
building in the CBD since the sale of Chifley Tower in 2005. What’s more, at a
12%
sales price of AU$685 million, it was one the largest office sale to take place in % per annum
10%
the world since the global financial crisis took hold in 2008. 8%

6%

In the Sydney industrial market, there was an increase in sales and leasing 4%

activity during the second half of 2009 due to an increase in imports and stock 2%

replenishment in the private sector. During 4Q2009, the market saw the first 0%
1Q 2004
2Q 2004
3Q 2004
4Q 2004
1Q 2005
2Q 2005
3Q 2005
4Q 2005
1Q 2006
2Q 2006
3Q 2006
4Q 2006
1Q 2007
2Q 2007
3Q 2007
4Q 2007
1Q 2008
2Q 2008
3Q 2008
4Q 2008
1Q 2009
2Q 2009
3Q 2009
4Q 2009
purchase of an industrial asset by a listed property trust in more than 12 months
when the Dexus Property Group bought 2-4 Military Road, Matraville, for Office Industrial

AU$46 million.
Source: Colliers

MAJOR INVESTMENT TRANSACTIONS


Development Floor Area Lump Sum Price Seller Buyer
(sq m) (AUD million) (US$ million)
Office
Aurora Place 48,908 685.00 614.35 Commonwealth Property South Korea National
Investment Trust Pension Service
60 Union Street, Pyrmont 19,790 137.00 122.87 Charter Hall AFIAA (Swiss Pension Fund)
20 Hunter Street, Sydney 9,942 77.00 69.06 Grosvenor Australia ACE Trust
234 Sussex Street, Sydney 11,067 46.00 41.26 Stockland Trust Group Private
Industrial
2-4 Military Road, Matraville 30,154 46.10 41.35 AMP Capital Investors Dexus Property Group
2 Quarry Road & 33 James Erskine Drive, 12,897 22.40 20.09 ING Industrial Fund Private Investor
Erskine Park
70-82 Marple Avenue,Villawood 16,339 15.55 13.95 ING Industrial Fund Private Investor
Note: US$1 = AUD1.1150

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | REGIONAL RESEARCH 23


INVESTMENT MARKET OVERVIEW | FOURTH QUARTER | 2009

NEW ZEALAND - AUCKLAND

I n the office sector, vacancy rates moved up in most CBD precincts, with the
average rate registered at 11.5% in 4Q2009 compared with 8.4% in mid-2009.
Prime-grade office vacancy rates also rose to 11.5% over the same period, up from
9.0%
NEW ZEALAND OCR

8.0%
5.4% in June 2009. In 2009, typical prime office rents fell to around NZ$330 per 7.0%

sq m per annum, down 8% from early 2009, as tenants opt for renewals rather 6.0%

% per annum
than take new leases. Landlords are agreeing to shorter lease terms and lease 5.0%

4.0%
term extensions to increase tenant flexibility, in some cases offering a rent-free
3.0%
period as part of an incentive package. The sales transactions that have occurred 2.0%

in the Auckland market have shown the return to the market of private investors 1.0%

and property syndicates looking to take advantage of cyclical lows. Investment 0.0%

1Q 2000
3Q 2000
1Q 2001
3Q 2001
1Q 2002
3Q 2002
1Q 2003
3Q 2003
1Q 2004
3Q 2004
1Q 2005
3Q 2005
1Q 2006
3Q 2006
1Q 2007
3Q 2007
1Q 2008
3Q 2008
1Q 2009
3Q 2009
yields are now between 8% and 9% for typical prime-grade office space and are
expected to remain stable over the next 12 months. Source: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand

In the industrial sector, the property council/IPD investment index reported


that Auckland industrial investment property returned a total of 2.4% for the
AUCKLAND PROPERTY YIELDS
year to September 2009, up from 0.6% in the March 2009 quarter. Industrial
vacancy levels in the Auckland region rose to 6.4% in August 2009 from 4.8% 16%

six months previously and prime market yields stabilised at between 7.75% and 14%

8.75%. Good-quality, well-located properties with secure medium- to long-term 12%

10%
tenants remain in favour, and a number of private investors and high-net-worth
% per annum

8%
individuals are merging to acquire larger industrial assets.
6%

4%

In the retail sector, prime retail rents stabilised in 4Q2009 after a decline of 2%

around 15% since the beginning of the year. Prime locations, such as lower 0%
1Q 2004
2Q 2004
3Q 2004
4Q 2004
1Q 2005
2Q 2005
3Q 2005
4Q 2005
1Q 2006
2Q 2006
3Q 2006
4Q 2006
1Q 2007
2Q 2007
3Q 2007
4Q 2007
1Q 2008
2Q 2008
3Q 2008
4Q 2008
1Q 2009
2Q 2009
3Q 2009
4Q 2009
Queen Street, still remain retailers’ favourite spots. Due to the stabilisation of
retail spending and the return of consumption confidence, retail investment
Office Retail Industrial
sentiment rebounded to the levels seen in early 2009. Prime average retail yields
tightened to around 7% in 4Q2009. Source: Colliers

MAJOR INVESTMENT TRANSACTIONS


Development Floor Area Lump Sum Price Seller Buyer
(sq m) (NZD million) (US$ million)
Office
60 Cook & 143 Nelson Streets 4,604 7.68 5.54 Kermadec Property Fund Undisclosed
Aurecon House, 139 Carlton Gore Road 5,929 26.65 19.23 Goodman Property Trust Overseas Investor
Retail
Berkley Cinema & Retail complex, 1,739 7.00 5.05 Kermadec Property Fund Undisclosed
32-34 Anzac Street
Birkenhead Retail Complex, 174 Mokoia Road 1,355 5.90 4.26 Private Owner Private Investor
Rialto Centre & Carlton DFK Tower 7,865 49.00 35.36 National Property Trust Ladstone Developments
Buildings, 135-187 Broadway
Industrial
169 Bush road 6,084 9.40 6.78 Siemens (NZ) Private Investor
(office/warehouse)
10,000 (yard)
38A & 38B Harris Road & 73 Crooks Road 4,497 7.32 5.28 Private Owner Private Investor
11 Dalgety Drive 14,363 11.70 8.44 Property For Industry Corporate Investor
130 Keers Road 6,814 7.40 5.34 Pangani Properties Stuart P C
(office/warehouse)
20,146 (yard)
92-98 Harris Road 7,313 12.34 8.91 Direct Property Fund Private Investor
Note: US$1 = NZD1.3856

24 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | REGIONAL RESEARCH


INVESTMENT MARKET OVERVIEW | FOURTH QUARTER | 2009

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

NEW ZEALAND - WELLINGTON

T he CBD office leasing market has experienced a series of rental reductions


since mid-2008, with prime rents now sitting at around NZ$374 per sq m
per annum. The overall vacancy rate increased from 6% in 2Q2009 to 6.7% in 9.0%
NEW ZEALAND OCR

8.0%
4Q2009, while prime-grade vacancy rates remained stable at around 0.7% and 7.0%
secondary grade rates rose from 6.7% six months ago to 7.4% in 4Q2009. 6.0%

% per annum
5.0%

Investment yields in the majority of the office precincts remained static in 4.0%

3.0%
4Q2009. However, yields have edged up by 25 to 50 basis points in the Core
2.0%
precinct and investment activity remained active in the sub-NZ$3 million 1.0%

bracket. The prevailing trend is expected to continue over the next 12 months, 0.0%

1Q 2000
3Q 2000
1Q 2001
3Q 2001
1Q 2002
3Q 2002
1Q 2003
3Q 2003
1Q 2004
3Q 2004
1Q 2005
3Q 2005
1Q 2006
3Q 2006
1Q 2007
3Q 2007
1Q 2008
3Q 2008
1Q 2009
3Q 2009
with face office rents dropping by a further 2.4% to the end of 2010. Capital
values are also expected to decline further over the next 12 months on the back Source: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand
of weakening rents.

In the industrial sector, vendors have been offering a range of lease incentives,
WELLINGTON PROPERTY YIELDS
including straightforward rental reductions. These have been more prevalent in
secondary or larger warehouses with floor areas of over 3,000 sq m. Industrial 16%

capital values have been dropping, although the rate of decline has narrowed. 14%

With a further downslide in rentals, industrial capital values will see a further 12%

downward adjustment over the next 12 months. 10%


% per annum

8%

6%
In the retail sector, the pace of rental decline in the CBD narrowed from 5.1% 4%
in mid-2009 to 4.0% in 4Q2009. With strengthening consumption confidence 2%

and improving market sentiment, the retail market saw a return of investment 0%
1Q 2004
2Q 2004
3Q 2004
4Q 2004
1Q 2005
2Q 2005
3Q 2005
4Q 2005
1Q 2006
2Q 2006
3Q 2006
4Q 2006
1Q 2007
2Q 2007
3Q 2007
4Q 2007
1Q 2008
2Q 2008
3Q 2008
4Q 2008
1Q 2009
2Q 2009
3Q 2009
4Q 2009
demand during 4Q2009. This was particularly the case for properties in the
lower price bracket. Despite the fall in rentals, investment yields were compressed
Office
further to an average of 6.9% and 7.4% in the prime and secondary markets,
respectively, during 4Q2009. Source: Colliers

MAJOR INVESTMENT TRANSACTIONS


Development Floor Area Lump Sum Price Seller Buyer
(sq m) (NZD million) (US$ million)
Office
15-21 Abel Smith Street 1,320 4.30 3.10 Liquidators of Williams & Smith The Wellington Company
Old Wool House, 139-141 Featherston Street 2,430 5.10 3.68 Hong Polo Stressfactor Investments
Note: US$1 = NZD1.3856

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | REGIONAL RESEARCH 25


INVESTMENT MARKET OVERVIEW | FOURTH QUARTER | 2009

This page is deliberately left blank.

26 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | REGIONAL RESEARCH


Appendix

Major Market News


Contacts
INVESTMENT MARKET OVERVIEW | FOURTH QUARTER | 2009

Greater China

MAJOR MARKET NEWS

On 1 September, The Ministry of Land and


Beijing Resources (MLR) issued the Notice on Approval
for Land Use with Strict Supervision to strengthen
The Beijing Municipal Government on 24 June
the supervision of land for construction and
2009 issued the Implementation of Provisions to
protect rural collective land areas from illegal use.
Encourage Multinational Corporations to Set up
According to the Notice, land areas on which
Regional Headquarters in Beijing, corresponding
construction has not started upon two years
to the Provisions to Encourage Multinational
of approval being received will be resumed by
Corporations to Set up Regional Headquarters in
the government and labelled a vacant area for
Beijing released on 21 May 2009.The act aims at
further consideration, according to the relevant
sharpening Beijing’s edge compared to Shanghai,
laws and regulations. In addition, the government
Hong Kong and Singapore, which are also actively Beijing’s Haidian District council officially released
will take action on those housing and golf resort
creating conditions to attract MNCs’ headquarters. The Circular of Accelerating the Adjustment
projects with illegal property rights, and monitor
According to the Implementation, MNCs with of Trades in Zhongguancun West Zone on
all processes of land planning, execution, approval,
Asian headquarters newly established in Beijing 20 July. According to the Circular, the Haidian
supply and development. This Notice unveils
can benefit from government subsidiaries of as local government will encourage technological
the government’s intention of strengthening
much as RMB10 million. and creative industries, instead of traditional
land management with statutory policies and
retail properties such as electronic stores and
preventing land resources from lying vacant and
Sources from the Beijing Commission of shopping centres, to develop in the West Zone
being wasted.
Development and Reform reveal that the of Zhongguancun. According to the new act, the
Implementation Plan of Restructure and Zhongguancun West Zone will be developed into
The Ministry of Finance (MOF) will maintain its
Revitalisation of the Electronic Information an area consisting of six functional areas, including
active fiscal policy during the crucial period of
Industry in Beijing (‘the Plan’) will soon be financial, technology service, high-tech corporate
economic recovery, as a solid foundation has yet
officially released. According to the Plan, Beijing headquarters, R&D centres, creative industries,
to be confirmed, according to finance minister
aims to develop into the information centre city new product trading and display, and service areas.
Xuren Xie.The government agency will continue
of the Asia Pacific region, and a global electronic The action plan of the Circular will be introduced
to enlarge investment in public expenditure, and
information industry base. Over the next three later by the Haidian District Government. The
strengthen the development and construction
years, Beijing will emphasize and strengthen the adjustment is expected to foster more demand for
of key projects. In addition, the government
development of mobile communications, digital office space from high-tech and creative industries
will carry out structural tax reduction policies,
television, software and information services, in the Zhongguancun West Zone.
including raising tax rebates and exempting tax
high-generation flat panel display, integrated China’s central bank is still committed to a
for certain exports, in order to boost investment
circuits, computers, next-generation Internet moderately loose monetary policy, according to
and consumption by reducing the tax burden
applications domains, etc. As it suggests in the Su Ning, deputy governor of the People’s Bank
on corporations and residents.
Plan, the added value of the electronic information of China (PBOC), at a press conference in Beijing
industry will account for 15% of Beijing’s GDP, of on 7 August. The promise from the government
On 22 September, China’s State Council issued a
which the information services and the electronic to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy
document with opinions to strengthen support
information manufacturing sectors will contribute will boost market sentiment, while any changes
for the development of the country’s Small- and
11% and 4%, respectively, by the end of 2011.The to government policies will definitely reverse the
Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs). According to
government’s initiative will further improve not upward momentum of the economy and lead to
the latest policy, the Central Government will
only the healthy conditions of the local economic failure at the mid-point. It should be noted that
deepen reforms to the country’s monopoly
structure, but also the competitiveness of the city the PBOC will manipulate slower credit growth
industries, lower the market access threshold,
in the region. In addition, the act will probably rather than a decrease in credit supply, despite the
and create a more open and fair competition
catalyse more demand for industrial properties country’s banking loans having recorded nearly
environment for SMEs, with more favourable tax
in the medium term (3-5 years). RMB7.4 trillion in 1Q09, far higher than the initial
breaks, better access to markets and banking loans,
full-year target of RMB5 trillion.

28 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | REGIONAL RESEARCH


INVESTMENT MARKET OVERVIEW | FOURTH QUARTER | 2009

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Greater China

MAJOR MARKET NEWS

and stronger government aid for technological the overall land supply policy. Delimiting to the period of the total land price shall not exceed
innovations. The action aims to drive a new segment of commodity residential housing, the one year in principle, and the down payment shall
source of economic growth that will sustain land sales area of single plot must not exceed not be less than the 50% of the total price for
China’s recovery. the upper limits of 7, 14 and 20 hectares in small the developer.The new down payment policy for
cities (towns), medium-sized cities and large cities, land transactions, along with the 5.55% business
According to the Ministry of Land Resources respectively. Apparently, the government intends tax on selling houses within the five-year holding
(MLR), the government recently approved the to nurture a healthier real estate market through period, reintroduced two weeks ago, aims mainly
revised edition of the Beijing Municipal Overall the revised land management mechanism. to curb speculation in the national real estate
Land Use Master Plan from 2006 to 2020 and market.
stated that Beijing will strictly manage land for The State Council on 2 November announced
construction, especially in urban areas, and also further streamlining of the approval process of The Ministry of Finance on 22 December
maintain rural land construction areas in good foreign investment in the form of joint venture announced the new package on property sales
order for infrastructure construction. According enterprises. According to the new policy, which tax, effective from 1 January 2010. Owners have
to the latest plan, urban and suburban land will take effect on 1 March 2010, foreign-funded to pay taxes levied on the sales price if a non-
construction areas in Beijing will be capped at joint venture enterprises are eligible to set up a common house is held for less than five years;
the upper limit of 270,000 hectares by 2020, of partnership enterprise with registration directly to owners only have to pay taxes levied on the profit
which urban land construction areas will be limited the registration authority, instead of requiring prior if a non-common house is held for at least five
to 77,800 hectares. In 2009, Beijing plans to have approval from the local commission of the Ministry years, or that of a common house for less than
about 4,000 hectares of new construction area of Commerce (MOC). The government intends five years; and owners pay no property sales tax
and offer a total land supply of 5,700 hectares. to encourage overseas investors with advanced if a common house is held for at least five years.
technology and management experience to This clarification on the property sales tax is a
The Beijing Municipal Government released the set up joint ventures, aiming at promoting the response to the 5.5% tax on sales of homes by
Action Plan of Promoting the Beijing’s Southern development of modern service industry and the State Council on 9 December, and is aimed
Areas and Accelerating Its Development on other related sectors in the country. at curbing speculation in the housing market.
5 November. According to the Plan, the local
government will invest over RMB50 billion in According to the State Council Executive Meeting
infrastructure projects in Beijing’s southern areas on 9 November, chaired by Chinese Premier Chengdu
over the next three years. This will bring a total Wen Jiabao, China will further strengthen the
estimated investment of RMB290 billion from incentives on domestic consumption and continue Effective on 1st January 2010, the down payment
both the public and private sectors. In addition, to maintain most of the pace of current policies for land acquisition increased from 20% to 50%
the Plan also reveals that a total of seven subway through next year, in order to achieve stable and and the term of capital gain tax on the sale of
lines, covering 188 km, will be completed in the rapid economic growth. As for the real estate housing properties was revised upwards from 2
region and several motorways linking to the south- sector, most of the favourable housing policies, years to within 5 years of purchases.
west of Beijing, including Jingshi Motorway II, will such as the 20% down payment and discount
be constructed within five years, which should mortgage rate on first home buyers, will remain
benefit the further promotion and development the same in 2010, except that the business tax
of such business parks as the Lize Financial exemption for second housing will be limited
Business District of Beijing, the Zhongguancun to more than five years, instead of a two-year
Fengtai Science Park and the Daxing Bio-medicine holding period.
Industry Park in the precinct.
The Ministry of Land and Resources (MLR) on The consor tium of MOF and four other
10 November circulated the Notice on “The government agencies on 17 December circulated
Directory of Projects with Restricted Land Use the notice on further strengthening the transfer
(the Revised Edition of 2006)” to further tighten payment management of land transactions.
According to the notice, the instalment payment

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | REGIONAL RESEARCH 29


INVESTMENT MARKET OVERVIEW | FOURTH QUARTER | 2009

Greater China

MAJOR MARKET NEWS

(2) The application is made jointly by all owners


Guangzhou the Ministry of Finance adopted regulations to
strengthen management on settlement of land of the buildings
premium. The initial instalment of land premium (3)There will be no increase in building height, bulk
On 9th December 2009, the government or gross floor area after conversion
is raised to 50% and full payment has to be settled
introduced policies to prevent overheating in one year under normal circumstances. (4) The building cannot be reverted to industrial
in the real estate market, changing the levy use during the waiver period
exemption from two to five years with effect The above policy initiatives were targeted (5) The full market premium is payable when the
specifically at the residential and land sale markets building is redeveloped in the future
from 1 Jan 2010, with the aim of discouraging
and basically did not touch upon commercial
speculative investment.
property and service apartments. Given the Except for lower ing the threshold for
abundant liquidity in the market and a sanguine application under the Land (Compulsory Sale
On 17th December 2009, five ministries, market outlook, investment sales activities are for Redevelopment) Ordinance, which will
the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Land expected to remain active in the foreseeable be implemented via subsidiary legislation on
Resources, the central bank, the Ministry future. a permanent basis, applications for the other
measures must be made within a three-year period
of Supervision and the Audit Commission
from 1st April 2010.
jointly issued the “Circular on Tightening
of Land transfer revenue and expenditure
Hong Kong
management notification”. It aims to strictly In view of the continued structural change Taipei
tighten deposits on land, which should not in demand for industrial properties, the local
be less than 50% of the total value. government has introduced various measures over The real GDP rebounded from -1.29% QoQ
the past few years to help boost the use of vacant in 3Q 2009 to 6.89% QoQ in 4Q 2009. As the
or under-utilised industrial premises. global economy saw some improvement, the
trading sector, including exports and imports,
In October 2009, the Secretary for Development gained momentum and recovered from -20.86%
elaborated on a new package of measures proposed QoQ and -29.52% QoQ respectively in 3Q 2009
by the government to facilitate the redevelopment to 16.86% QoQ and 16.21% QoQ respectively
and wholesale conversion of industrial buildings, in 4Q 2009.
which will become effective on 1st April 2010.
The most notable measure for facilitating the During the second half of 2009, the home mortgage
redevelopment of industrial buildings is the lowering loan increased from NT$4.77 million July 2009 to
of the threshold for owners of industrial buildings NT$4.88 million in November 2009, up by 2.24%
in non-industrial zones and those aged 30 years during the period. Meanwhile, the construction
Shanghai or above from 90% to 80% to apply to the Lands loan Index edged up slightly by 0.73%, from
Tribunal for compulsory sale for redevelopment. NT$0.98 million in July 2009 to NT$0.99 million
In December 2009, State Council issued a number In addition, in order to facilitate the conversion of in November 2009.
of policy directives to curb speculation in the industrial buildings for other uses, owners can apply
residential and land markets. The required holding for a “nil waiver fee” concession if the following
period of residential property by an individual to criteria are satisfied:
qualify for business tax concession reverts from
two years back to five years. Measures will also (1) The industrial buildings are aged 15 years or
be implemented to increase the effective supply above and located in “Industrial”,“Commercial”
of ordinary housing and support home purchases or “OU (Business)” zones
for self-use or upgrading. On the land sale market,

30 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | REGIONAL RESEARCH


INVESTMENT MARKET OVERVIEW | FOURTH QUARTER | 2009

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

North Asia

MAJOR MARKET NEWS

Seoul
Korea recorded a positive economic growth after
three consecutive quarters of decline, with GDP
growing by 0.73% YoY in 3Q 2009 and 6.29%
YoY in 4Q 2009.

In anticipation of a rise in the benchmark interest


rate in 2010, investors will tend to seek any assets
enjoying low interest rates. Moreover, the tax
reduction for acquisition and registration and
Tokyo the heavy tax levy waiver for real estate fund and
REITs will continue until 2012, which will facilitate
The Democratic Party of Japan won the general more investment using these vehicles.
election on 30th August 2009 after long domination
by the Liberal Democratic Party over the past
16 years.

The Japanese Market saw an improved economy,


with real GDP increased by 0.3% QoQ and 1.2%
YoY in 3Q 2009. Meanwhile, public investment,
exports and production were also on the upward
trend. However, the rate of growth is expected
to moderate as economic fundamentals remain
weak, for example, with a high unemployment rate
of over 5%.The momentum is not strong enough
to underpin a full recovery.

In December 2009, Bank of Japan introduced


a new fund-supplying operation to encourage
a further decline in long-term interest rates at
0.1% for three months, bringing the total amount
of loans approximately to ¥10 trillion, in order
to overcome deflation and a sustained growth
in price stability.

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | REGIONAL RESEARCH 31


INVESTMENT MARKET OVERVIEW | FOURTH QUARTER | 2009

South Asia

MAJOR MARKET NEWS

• Allowing a one-year extension of project


Manila completion period for existing Government
residential sale sites and private residential
SM Development Corp. acquired three new projects by foreign housing developers with
properties in Mandaluyong, Manila, worth close Qualifying Certificates (QC);
to P2 billion to support the company’s aggressive • Allowing re-assignment of Government Land
expansion. The company bought a one-hectare Sales (GLS) sites and private land owned by
property near Welcome Rotonda in Quezon QC holders;
City, where it plans to build two residential • Allowing up to two years of property tax
condominiums under the Sun Residences brand. deferral for land under development;
Meanwhile, Jazz Residences, located on a two- • Offering QC holders up to four years to dispose
hectare lot along Jupiter Street in Makati City, is all private residential units in the development;
planning to build four residential towers on the lot. and
The third acquisition is located on a two-hectare • Allowing QC holders to rent out unsold
private residential units for a maximum of
property in Mandaluyong City, near the Boni
Station of MRT 3, where the company plans to
Singapore four years.
build Light Residences.
Singapore’s GDP expanded by 3.5% YoY in 4Q On the 6th November 2009, the Government
2009, bringing a full year contraction of 2.1% YoY announced the reinstatement of the Confirmed
Looking ahead, other projects scheduled for
in 2009. Looking ahead, the government now List for 1H 2010 GLS Programme to ensure that
launching in 2010 are Princeton Residences in
expects the economy to expand by between 3% there will be adequate land supply for housing
Quezon City, located beside Gilmore LRT-2 Station
YoY and 5% YoY in 2010. development.
along Aurora Boulevard, and Wind Residences in
Tagaytay City.
The Singapore government made moderate Under the GLS programme, a Confirmed
downward adjustments to development charge List comprising eight residential sites for the
The Real Estate Investment Trust measure is now
(DC) rates, effective from 1 September 2009. On development of 2,925 housing units will be
a law (RA 9856), after President Arroyo allowed
average, the DC rates for commercial land use released. The government will also maintain a
the 30-day period to lapse within which to veto
were cut by 4.0%, rates for non-landed residential Reserve List, with a total of 16 residential sites
the bill. To encourage investments in REITs, the
use decreased by 2.0%, and those for hotel/ and two mixed-use plots, which will bring a supply
REIT law provides certain tax incentives to the
hospital and business zone commercial uses were of 7,625 units. Both the Confirmed and Reserve
REIT. However, the REIT must be listed with a
trimmed by 4.0%. Lists can potentially bring 10,550 housing units
stock exchange and maintain its status as a listed
company and annually release at least 90 percent into the market. This is the highest supply in the
The Government had removed the Interest half-yearly GLS programme since the Reserve List
of its distributable income to shareholders.
Absorption Scheme (IAS) and Interest-Only system began in 2H 2001.
Housing Loans (IOL), with effect from 14
September 2009. The Government will also resume the Confirmed
List for industrial land sales, with two sites, which
The Government will also not extend the following can potentially yield some 1.34 million sq ft of
January 2009 Budget assistance measures for industrial space. Eight sites will also be maintained
the property market when they expire. This in the Reserve List for industrial use in the first
includes: six months of 2010.

32 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | REGIONAL RESEARCH


INVESTMENT MARKET OVERVIEW | FOURTH QUARTER | 2009

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

South Asia

MAJOR MARKET NEWS

No commercial, hotel or white sites are added to


the Confirmed List for 1H 2010. However, two
new hotel plots are added to the Reserve List.The
Reserve List will comprise five commercial sites,
two white sites, 10 hotel sites and one commercial-
and-residential site.These sites can potentially yield
4.50 million sq ft (gross floor area) of commercial
space and 4,515 hotel rooms.

Bangkok
Thailand’s economy rebounded in 3Q 2009, with
the GDP rate of decline narrowing from 7.1% YoY
in 1Q 2009 and 4.9% YoY in 2Q 2009 to 2.8% YoY
in 3Q 2009. On a quarterly basis, an increase of
1.3% QoQ was recorded in 3Q 2009. The Bank
of Thailand predicted the economy to grow in
the range of 3.3%-5.3% in 2010. Meanwhile, the
state planning agency NESDB forecast GDP to
expand by 3-4% and Reuters expects a 3.5%
growth in 2010.

Core inflation remained stagnant with only a


negligible 0.3% YoY rise in 2009. Meanwhile, the
headline inflation (including food and energy
Interest Absorption Scheme prices) entered the negative region of 1.9% YoY
The IAS is a housing loan payment scheme offered by a housing in 2009. The Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy
developer and his partner bank(s) to buyers of uncompleted
housing units. The IAS allows purchasers who, after paying the Committee is likely to keep its one-day repurchase
upfront downpayment, to defer making any further installment rate at 1.25% in 1H 2010, in order to encourage
payments until the units are completed, i.e. issued a Temporary the delicate momentum that is taking root in the
Occupation Permit (TOP). The purchaser would take up a loan
with the developer’s partner bank to buy the property under the economy.
IAS. Prior to TOP, the bank will require only interest payments
to be made on the loan and these payments will be paid by the
developer. The borrower will start making regular installment
payments on the loan only after TOP.

Interest-Only Housing Loans


The IOL is a housing loan whereby the borrower makes only
interest payments on the loan for a period of time, with no
repayments of the loan principal. For uncompleted properties,
the interest-only period could be from the inception of the IOL
to TOP of the project. (If an IOL is offered under an IAS scheme,
the developer pays the interest instead of the borrower in the
interest only period). Compared to payments under a standard
payment scheme, installment payments under an IOL in the
interest-only period are lower, but as the loan principal is not
paid down during this period, subsequent installment payments
may be higher when servicing of the principal resumes.

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | REGIONAL RESEARCH 33


INVESTMENT MARKET OVERVIEW | FOURTH QUARTER | 2009

INDIA

MAJOR MARKET NEWS

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has made it easier real estate company, Mainstreet Equity, which owns
for banks to lend to special economic zones (SEZ). more than 6,000 rental properties across Canada,
Several types of advances to projects in special is likely to set up a billion-dollar India-specific real
economic zones have now been excluded from estate fund to mark its entry into the Indian real
the definition of commercial real estate loans. In estate market.
the circular issued on Wednesday, RBI has sought
to define a commercial real estate loan as one Between April and October 2009, the total FDI
where the funds are used to acquire real estate inflow stood at $17.64 billion, almost 6% lower
and the repayment of the loans is out of proceeds than the corresponding period in 2008. Meanwhile,
of sale or rentals from the property. Bearing these foreign investments flowing into the services
conditions in mind, RBI has sought to differentiate sector (financial and non-financial) fell by about
between loans that could be classified as CRE 7% YoY, to $3,121 million, during April- October
Economy exposures and those that were not.
Kotak Realty Fund, a real estate private equity (PE)
2009. Among other major sectors, housing and
real estate development witnessed a 12.5% YoY
fund from Kotak Mahindra Group, will invest Rs surge in FDI inflows, to $2,056 million, during the
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) moved to hike
270 crore to acquire stakes in a Mumbai-based same period. The FDI into construction totalled
the statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) and increase the
realty firm and a slum rehabilitation project and $1,565 million during the same period in 2009
provisioning norms for advances to the commercial
a Bangalore-based developer.The fund will spend (against $1,742 million a year ago).
real estate sector.The provisioning requirement for
Rs 100 crore to acquire a 60% stake in Star Light Aimed at promoting low-cost housing, the
loans to commercial real estate has been increased
Developers Pvt. Ltd and another Rs 100 crore for government has launched an interest rate subsidy
from 0.4% to 1%. Some analysts commented that
50% of the slum rehabilitation project undertaken scheme that could help a home loan borrower
interest rates are still at their lowest in recent times,
by Ackruti City Ltd near Mumbai’s international save up to Rs10,000 in EMIs, provided the cost of
and even a marginal hike due to this tightening in
airport. It will also spend Rs 70 crore to purchase the house is less than Rs20 lakh. In other words,
provisioning will not seriously affect the overall
a 60% stake in Bangalore-based Lalith Gangadhar the interest subvention scheme of 1 percent
sector. Rather, it might help, as the central Bank is
Constructions Pvt. Ltd. will apply on all individual housing loans up to
trying to curb the formation of an asset bubble. In
Canada-based NRI billionaire Bob Dhillon is all Rs10 lakh for units costing up to Rs20 lakh. The
other words, it is trying to control the asset prices
set to make a foray into India. Dhillon’s Canadian interest rate subsidy scheme will be offered at a
for end users. Indeed, in some cities property
prices have gone up by 5-15 percent in past 2-3 one-year period from 1st October 2009 to 30th
months. If well implemented, this policy will benefit September 2010.
property buyers in the long run.

34 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | REGIONAL RESEARCH


INVESTMENT MARKET OVERVIEW | FOURTH QUARTER | 2009

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Australasia

MAJOR MARKET NEWS

In response to recessionary pressures, the Reserve


New Zealand Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) expanded liquidity
facilities by progressively lowering the Official Cash
After five consecutive quarters of contraction Rate (OCR) by 575 basis points since mid 2008
in the New Zealand economy, gross domestic down to 2.5%. In light the uncertainty remaining
product (GDP) increased 0.2% in the June 2009 around the durability of New Zealand’s economic
quarter and economic activity maintained a same expansion the RBNZ is expected to leave the OCR
pace of growth during the September quarter. rate unchanged for at least another six months.
For the year ended September 2009, GDP The labour market weakened further in the
contracted 2.2% compared with the year ended September 2009 quarter. According to Statistics
September 2008. New Zealand the unemployment rate rose to
7.3% in the December 2009 quarter from 6.5%
Total export volumes increased 4.7% in the June in the September quarter.
Australia 2009 quarter, mainly driven by an increase in
exports of dairy products (up 20.9%).Total import
volumes were down 3.8%, with intermediate goods
The release of positive economic indicators in
(down 6.1%), and capital goods (down 3.5%)
4Q 2009 revealed that the Australian economy
making the largest contributions.
finished the year stronger than expected, thanks
to the stimulus measures put in place by the
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) figure recorded
federal government and increased commodity
an increase of 1.3% in the September 2009 quarter,
exports, leading to recovery. During 3Q 2009,
up from 0.6% in the June quarter. Seven out of 11
GDP expanded further by 0.5%.The most recent
groups increased, with transport (up 3.1%), food
forecasts from Access Economics suggest that
(up 1.7%), and housing and household utilities (up
GDP growth is expected to accelerate to 2.5%
0.7%) making the most significant contributions. On
in 2010 and 3.5% in 2011.
an annual basis, inflation, as measured by the CPI
dropped to 1.7% in the year ending September 2009
The unemployment rate peaked at 5.8% in October
year. Annual CPI inflation is currently well within
2009, and the latest figures showed a decline to
the target band of 1% and 3% and is expected to
5.5% in December 2009.The market experienced
remain below 2% until early 2011 and track within
strong job growth, with the total number in
the target range over the medium term.
employment up by 35,200 in December 2009, of
which full-time employment rose by 7,300 jobs
and part-time employment grew by 27,900.

During 4Q 2009, The Reserve Bank of Australia


was the pioneer among central banks to lift its
official cash rate by 25 basis points, from 3.00%
in September 2009 to 3.75% in December 2009.
The recent string of positive economic results,
such as strong jobs growth and retail spending
figures, further supports the forecast that the
Reserve Bank will lift the official cash rate to 4.00%
in February 2010.

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | REGIONAL RESEARCH 35


INVESTMENT MARKET OVERVIEW | FOURTH QUARTER | 2009

For further details, please contact:

GREATER CHINA NORTH ASIA

Beijing, China Hong Kong, HKSAR Tokyo, Japan


502 Tower W3 Oriental Plaza Suite 5701 Central Plaza Halifax Building 8F, 16-26
No 1 East Changan Avenue 18 Harbour Road Roppongi 3-Chome
Dongcheng District Wanchai, Hong Kong Minato-ku, Tokyo 106-0032
Beijing 100738
Antonio Wu Christopher Parry
John Wong Regional Director / Head of HK Investment & Senior Investment Adviser
Director, Investment & Project Department Retail Services Tel : 813-5563-2180
Tel : 86 10 8518 1578 Tel : 852 2822 0733 Email : cparry@colliershalifax.com
Email : john.wong@colliers.com Email : antonio.wu@colliers.com

Osaka, Japan
Sumitomo Seimei Kawaramachi #2 Building
Chengdu, China Taipei, Taiwan 8-4, Kawaramachi 4-chome Chuo-ku
Room L 16F City Tower 49/F TAIPEI 101 TOWER Osaka, 541-0048
86 Section One Renmin Nan Road No 7 Xin Yi Road Sec 5 Taipei 110
Chengdu 610016 Brett Jensen
Charles Huang Account Manager
Jacky Tsai Director, Investment Sales Tel : 81 6 6232 0790
General Manager Tel : 886 2 8101 1150 Email : bjensen@colliershalifax.com
Tel : 86 28 8620 2128 Email : charles.huang@colliers.com
Email : jacky.tsai@colliers.com

Guangzhou, China
Room 702 Teem Tower Seoul, South Korea
208 Tianhe Road 10F. Korea Tourism Organization Bldg.
Guangzhou 510620 10 Da-dong, Jung-gu,
Seoul 100-180
Eric Lam
General Manager Jay Yun
Tel : 86 20 3819 3988 Senior Director & General Manager
Email : eric.lam@colliers.com Tel : 82 2 6740 2001
Email : jay.yun@colliers.com

Shanghai, China
16F Hong Kong New World Tower
300 Huaihai Zhong Road
Shanghai 200021

Betty Wong
Director, Investment Services & Special
Projects - East China
Tel : 86 21 6141 3529
Email : betty.wong@colliers.com

36 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | REGIONAL RESEARCH


INVESTMENT MARKET OVERVIEW | FOURTH QUARTER | 2009

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

SOUTHEAST
SOUTH ASIA
ASIA INDIA AUSTRALASIA

Jakarta, Indonesia Mumbai, India Melbourne, Australia


World Trade Centre, 10th Floor 31-A, 3rd Floors, Film Centre Level 32, Optus Centre
Jalan Jenderal Sudirman Kav 29-31 68, Tardeo Road 367 Collins Street
Jakarta 12920 Mumbai 400 034 Melbourne VIC 3000

Mike Broomell Joe Verghese John Marasco


Managing Director Managing Director Managing Director, Investment Sales
Tel : 62 21 521 1400 ext 131 Tel : 91 22 4050 4500 Tel : 61 3 9612 8830
Email : mike.broomell@colliers.com Email : joe.verghese@colliers.com Email : john.marasco@colliers.com

Manila, Philippines Sydney, Australia


10/F Tower 2 RCBC Plaza Sydney CBD
6819 Ayala Avenue cor. Sen. Gil J Puyat Avenue Level 12, Grosvenor Place
Makati City 1200 225 George Street
Sydney, NSW 2000
Ieyo de Guzman
Director, Investment Sales John Kenny
Tel : 632 888 9988 Chief Executive
Email : ieyo.deguzman@colliers.com Tel : 61 2 9257 0222
Email : john.kenny@colliers.com

Jon Chomley
Singapore National Director, Investment Sales
1 Raffles Place Tel : 61 2 9257 0236
#45-00 OUB Centre Email : jon.chomley@colliers.com
Singapore 048616

Ho Eng Joo
Executive Director, Investment Sales Auckland, New Zealand
Tel : 65 6531 8618 Level 27, 151 Queen Street
Email : eng-joo.ho@colliers.com PO Box 1631, Auckland 1140

John Goddard
Director
Bangkok, Thailand Tel : 64 9 356 8837
17/F Ploenchit Center Email : john.goddard@colliers.com
2 Sukhumvit Road
Klongtoey, Bangkok 10110

Nukarn Suwatikul
Senior Manager, Investment & Advisory
Tel : 662 656 7000
Email : nukarn.suwatikul@colliers.com

Ho Chi Minh City,Vietnam


Bitexco Building, 7th Floor
19-25 Nguyen Hue Street
District 1, Ho Chi Minh City

KP Singh
Managing Director
Tel : 84 83 827 5665 The content of this report is for information only and should not be relied upon as a substitute for professional advice, which should be sought
from Colliers International prior to acting in reliance upon any such information. The opinions, estimates and information given herein or
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Colliers Macaulay Nicolls Inc., and certain of its subsidiaries, is an independently owned and operated business and a member firm of Colliers
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