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Abstract
Social games, being embedded in and drawing upon existing social networks, have the potential to spread virally. In
this paper, we examine two popular social games, each having millions of Facebook users, to understand the role
that users play individually and collectively in propagating social applications. At the individual level, the users’
invitation behavior significantly outweighs their demographic and social network properties in predicting invitation
success rate. At the collective level, we demonstrate that social games that encourage group formation tend to rap-
idly integrate dense network cliques. Finally, engagement in a social game is closely tied with the ability to recruit
friends.
In contrast to traditional collaborative online games This paper is organized as follows: after discussing
such as World of Warcraft, where users form social ties related work on diffusion, we provide some background
anew, social games are embedded in and interact with on the Facebook platform and social games and intro-
users’ existing online social networks. Today’s social duce the particular game instances we studied. Our
games, being simple and lightweight, are amenable to analysis is composed of two parts: predicting invitation
small-scaled and rapid development. They can also efficiency and understanding the group and social dy-
quickly reach a large user population. For example, one namics of invitation networks. We conclude with a dis-
cussion of our findings and future work.
1
http://www.insidesocialgames.com/about/
2
http://www.socialtimes.com/2008/07/social-games/
3
http://www.facebook.com/search/?q=farmville&init=quick#!
/FarmVille
1
2. Related Work Finally, most relevant to our current study, Sun et al.
analyzed the contagion processes of Facebook Fan
There is a rich literature on diffusion of cultural fads pages and found that diffusion chains usually start from
[5], innovation [17], or products [13]. In his book “Dif- a substantial number of roots and user’s demographic or
fusion of Innovations,” Rogers discusses the five stages usage information are poor predictors of how widely an
of an individual adoption process from a microperspec- item will diffuse [18].
tive, but also the macro-perspective on change in diffu-
sion rate over the course of the diffusion process. By In contrast to the diffusion of fan-pages, which may
viewing diffusion process as the transmission of items require little interaction past the event of joining, our
between individuals, various contagion models have current study focuses on the diffusion of games. De-
been adapted from mathematical epidemiology [2]. The spite the great popularity and business potential of on-
Bass model[4], used to describe the diffusion of innova- line social games, there are relatively few studies that
tions, is an example of an independent interaction directly investigate social applications built on various
model, where each exposure independently can result in social networking platforms. Gjoka et al. (2008)’s study
adoption. In contrast, in threshold models the adoption used data reported by FB on application installations of
probability depends on the number of simultaneous 300,000 FB users to identify general statistical patterns.
exposures[10, 16]. A model proposed by Dodds and These patterns include skewed adoption rate across
Watts generalizes from the above two types of conta- applications, an increase in the total number of applica-
gion models by explicitly incorporating memory of past tions installed, a decrease in average usage, and a ten-
exposure to an infectious agent [7]. dency of users to add to their already growing collec-
tions of apps. However, these aggregate observations
In addition to modeling the statistical properties of dif- tell us little about how individual applications diffuse as
fusion, social perspectives and implications have also a result of local interactions.
been explored. For example, Bikhchandani et al. stud-
ied individuals’ tendency to learn from and imitate oth- 3. Description of games and data
ers and explained the role of this behavior in diffusion
of cultural fads [5]. On a macro-level, for example, Our study focuses on two social Facebook games. Lo-
critical mass theory [15] describes the relationship be- lapps, the company behind these two games, provided
tween the growth of adoptions and network externality the dataset that is used in our analysis. Users’ informa-
[9]. On a micro-level, studies have modeled adoption tion has been de-identified prior to analysis. Lolapps is
and coordination processes with various influencing a social gaming company founded in 2008, that has
factors including network structure [6, 11, 12]. Further over 200 million FB users across all its games and ap-
work has attempted to model individual customer’s plications. We focus on two of the Lolapps games that
“network value” in terms of the expected profit from have enjoyed wide popularity: Yakuza Lords (YL) and
others that customer influences [8]. Diva Life (DL).
The rich traces users leave in the form of social
networks and interactions online have started to enable
researchers to conduct large-scale studies of diffusion
patterns. Leskovec et al. observed a power-law
distribution of online recommendation cascades and
proposed a model to identify community structure,
product features, and pricing strategies for successful
virtual marketing [13]. Liben-Nowell and Kleinberg
found and modeled surprisingly deep cascades of online
chain email [14]. Even the act of joining a group can be
considered a diffusion process. Backstrom et al. found Figure 1 Screenshot of Yakuza Lords in Facebook
that whether one will join a group depends not only on
how many friends one has in the group, but also how Yakuza Lords (YL). Launched in July 2009, YL is a
these friends are connected to one another [1]. This is Role-Playing Game (RPG) with a mafia-theme in the
an illustration of network externality, since both the context of Japanese culture. Players choose roles as
scale and structure of the converted network matters in Japanese mobsters and complete tasks, purchase items
exerting utility. A similar trend was seen in the and manage property aiming at becoming the next "Ya-
adoption of gestures in the virtual world Second Life, kuza lord”.
where rates tend to quicken when more friends have
adopted [3].
2
For example, from our data, around 90% users share
their locale information, 40% users share their friend
list but only 1% share their relationship status. Making
do with the data we have, we use invitations as partial
projections of the social graph. When estimating prop-
erties relating to e.g. the size of a user’s FB network,
we use data only for those users who have shared such
data.
3
and cause a user receiving an invite to put a higher ini- Figure 6, depicting a portion of a diffusion cascade in
tial value on the application. Yet another is that the YL, gives us a glimpse into how such a game diffuses
referral process can help establish scaffolding for social over the social network. The cascade starts from a sin-
interaction within the game, thus improving the users’ gle user, and includes all the users who joined after
initial experience. We will address this further in sec- being invited by the first user, followed by all the users
tion 5. who joined after being invited by those users, and so
on. Note that all leaf nodes (users who joined but did
not successfully invite any others) have been removed
for clarity because the invitation graph branches widely
in just a few steps. We also note that one user can be
invited by multiple “ancestor” nodes and will discuss
this further in Section 5.1.
3.2. Game diffusion Figure 7 plots the average cascade widths at each level
for 2000 randomly sampled diffusion cascades. Note
that although each cascade has a distinct root node,
Invitation behavior: Consistent with prior studies of
these cascades are not separate, as they often run into
online viral marketing [13], the number of invitations
each other when users from two different cascades suc-
sent per user is highly skewed; on average, each inviter
cessfully invite the same individual. The cascade width
has invited 26 friends while the median number is 10.
at each level represents the number of people who ac-
From the linear relationship between the average num-
cepted an invitation whose minimal distance to the root
ber of invitations sent as a function of the average num-
node is equal to the level number. For both games, there
ber of friends that users have, shown in Figure 5, we
is a quick expansion in the first 6 generations of invita-
interpret invitation behavior as being fairly casual. If
tions. Thereafter, the number of nodes at each level
that was not the case, we would see just a few close
shrinks gradually until the maximum observed cascade
friends receiving invitations regardless of the total
depth of 28. This is evidence that social games are able
number of friends a user has. We suspect that many
to quickly explore the social network within a few steps
people simply send invites through the function of “in-
and acquire potential users.
vite your online friends” rather than carefully selecting
invitees from among all their friends.
Figure 5 The average number of invitees per user, as a Figure 7 Size of invitation cascades by depth.
function of the size of their FB social network.
4
4. Invitation Network and Efficiency
4.1. Local Referral & Efficiency Models
One can be influenced to adopt FB games through a
variety of channels, from direct invitations from friends
to paid advertisements. In this paper we are interested
specifically in the efficiency of game adoption of the
social referral mechanism through the FB network, al- Figure 9 Sending more invites can lower success_rate
though we will consider the difference in behavior be-
tween users who adopt through referrals to those who Volume We find that there is a strong negative correla-
adopt through other channels. tion between the number of friends invited and one’s
success_rate in each game (ρ > -0.77***), as shown in
We characterize invitation efficiency from two points Figure 9. Clearly, success_rate decreases as more in-
of view: the inviter, shown in Figure 8a) and the in- vites are being sent, most likely due to an indiscrimi-
vitee, shown in Figure 8b). An inviter can invite multi- nate invitation pattern. If there is only a limited number
ple friends to the game. In this study we do not differ- of friends interested in specific games, sending invites
entiate whether the invitees were already playing the to many friends must then yield a lower success_rate.
game and were invited to join a different family, or Since we are interested in additional factors beyond the
whether they needed to freshly install the game. number of invitees in one’s ability to recruit additional
players, we control for the number of invitees in our
subsequent regressions. Based on the distribution of
number of invitees an inviter had, we choose three
groups of inviters: those who have invited 6, 12, or 20
friends for each game in our dataset.
5
multaneously with a single click. Controlling for the measured in terms of the clustering coefficient of the
total number of friends a user has ever invited, the av- inviter’s ego-network had no bearing on invitation suc-
erage number of invitations sent per click appears to be cess_rate.
a significant factor for invitation success_rate (ρ = -
0.35~0.49***). That is, users who invite friends indi- It is puzzling that the shape and density of one’s FB
vidually tend to have a higher yield, possibly because network has little predictive power. A possible explana-
they target their invitations to those who are more likely tion is that these networks can be largely static and do
to accept. not reflect the level of interaction between friends.
A linear regression that contains these three factors to Participation patterns: On the other hand, we find that
predict the success_rate of inviter for each game shows variables relating to interaction on FB can be related to
all factors are significant and together account for more their ability to influence others to adopt in both games.
than 16% of the total variance. The number of posts on one’s wall is a very weak but
statistically significant predictor of influential inviters
4.3. Characterizing successful inviters (ρ ~ 0.04**). These posts reflect the users’ own status
updates, messages from their friends, and updates gen-
The next question ignores strategies employed by influ- erated by apps. Interestingly, we find the level to which
ential inviters, and rather addresses whether it is possi- one is willing to expose profile information publicly is
ble to identify them purely based on their profiles and also correlated with success_rate (ρ ~ 0.06***). These
activities other than the sending of invitations. We two measures serve as proxies for openness and en-
categorize inviters’ attributes into three sets: demo- gagement in online social networks, and thus suggest a
graphic profiles, ego-network signatures, and relevant relationship between social influence and social activ-
participation patterns in games and on Facebook. ity.
6
5. Structural Dynamics in Invitation Connectedness of inviter network: another feature of
Network the inviter network is how densely the inviters are con-
nected to each other. Since many people did not share
their friend lists in FB, we consider the game family
5.1. Collective Effect of Inviters network, generated through invitations sent to friends,
as a partial projection of the FB social network. We
So far we have focused our analysis on the individual then also control for the total number of inviters to an
inviter. Next we turn to the invitees, as they interact invitee, and test the relationship between connectedness
with potentially multiple inviters, as illustrated by the (CC: clustering coefficient) of inviters and likelihood of
invitation network in Figure 6 and Figure 8 b). When adoption. For both games, we find significant positive
users join a game after receiving invitations from mul- correlation between the CC of the inviters and the ac-
tiple sources, we can attribute their conversion to a col- ceptance rate of the invitee (YL: ρ = 0.21*, DL: ρ =
lective effort. We define the acceptance_rate to be the
0.14*), which indicates that a more strongly connected
ratio of the number of families one invitee joins over all
game network is more attractive for others to join. Con-
distinct families that user was invited to join. We fur-
sidering the above result, we suspect that social games
ther examine how a structured group of inviters exerts
might be different from other diffusion agents as their
collective influence over a common invitee.
utility is primarily in their social function: the utility
might be significantly amplified by the social structure
Figure 11 shows that users are more likely to join as it accommodates, rather than its inherent utility as a
they receive invitations from more inviters. For both game. In the next section, we will discuss how the so-
YL and DL, the marginal rate is declining and the ac- cial utility is exerted as one kind of network externality.
ceptance_rate becomes more saturated.
5.2. Network Effect of Families in Game
Above we investigated the pointwise features of invita-
tions. We now look at how the adoption takes place
from a dynamic perspective: how invitation efficiency
varies across time, or different stages of the diffusion
network. First we are interested in whether there is a
network externality effect in the game contagion in a
local community. Family membership can yield both
explicit utility such as battle collaboration and implicit
Figure 11 Acceptance rate over different number of benefit by imparting a “feeling of belonging” to play-
invitations received by one user ers. In fact, we observe that family membership leads to
better performance and higher commitment to the
Heterogeneity of inviter networks: we are interested game. We hypothesize these different kinds of utilities
whether a heterogeneous group of recommenders exerts integrate and accumulate as a network externality as the
higher influence over an individual than a more homo- family size gets larger.
geneous group. One might argue that if a user is receiv-
ing the same signal to join a game, but the signal is We use the time interval between when the nth and
coming from a wide variety of friends, it is more likely (n+1)th members join a family to measure the proneness
to be heeded as the user will perceive the game to be of a new member to join. Figure 12a presents the aver-
ubiquitous and the advice to join the game independent. age time interval for all families which had 1~30 mem-
To measure the diversity level of a group of inviters bers. We see a clear drop in the time interval until the
that all send invitations to a common invitee, we 7th member joins each family. This suggests that the
compute the Shannon’s entropy4 of FB profiles of this first few members join at increasing speed, however
group. Since the number of inviters can influence this after that the process slows down as more members
measure, we tested the correlation between entropy of join.
inviters and acceptance_rate of groups of invitees who
all received the same number of invites. However the This might imply that a tightly knit group is quickly
correlation was non-significant. absorbed but members peripheral to the social network
do not join a family as readily. We gather that the net-
work externality becomes more significant as more
4
people have joined the family. That is, when one sees
entropy = −∑i pi log( pi ) , pi for example can be the more friends have joined, then one would be more
probability of inviters under 20 years old. likely to join and have greater utility within the game
€ 7
from being surrounded by friends. However, after most
potential friends have joined in a close community (the
local social resource has been exploited), it becomes
difficult to acquire new members, since they are at a
greater social distance. Consistently, the density of
one’s family network decreases as more members join
in, as shown in Figure 12b. The lower density means
that a smaller proportion of existing family members
had invited the newest members to join.
Figure 14 Correlation between one’s success_rate and
0.15 descendants’ average success_rate in invitation
4
Yakuza Lords
We also examine whether influence carries through the
Joining Interval in Day
Diva Life
cascade of users joining the game. As Figure 14 shows,
3
Yakuza Lords Diva Life Consequently, the strategies players use to invite others
help predict whether the invitations will succeed. Send-
Correlation Coefficient
Correlation Coefficient
0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
0.5
5 10 15 20 5 10 15 20
Number of inviters among friends Number of inviters among friends ever, while the success_rate may not depend on the
number of friends, the aggregate number of conversions
Figure 13 Correlation between one’s success_rate and does: users with more friends have more people to in-
average success_rate of one’s friends who invite others
vite. We suspect that the influence exerted through the
8
properties of inviter per se has been overlooked in the 3. Bakshy, E., B. Karrer, and L.A. Adamic. Social
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into the game, users may become more engaged due to micromodeling approach. Management Science,
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the 7th ACM conference on Electronic commerce.
We would like to thank Lolapps Inc.5 for providing the 2006, ACM: Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA.
data used in this study. The work was funded by NSF 14. Liben-Nowell, D. and J. Kleinberg, Tracing
IIS-0746646. information flow on a global scale using Internet
chain-letter data. Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences, 2008. 105(12): p. 4633-4638.
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