Date of first publication:

November 25th, 2008 Refining Sector

Victor Labate
Industrials/Oil&Gas Analyst
+30210 7720076
Greek-Turkish Refining Sector
labate@nationalpk.nbg.gr

Elif Tore Yurdum

Oil&Gas/Conglomerates
Continuation of diesel shortage combined with growing demand for
Senior Analyst
+90212 3367280
refinery products
elif.tore@finansinvest.com

View Despite the fact that we experienced a recovery of
refining margins in Q3’08, we expect a further softening of
benchmark Med refining margins in ’09, which will have a more
or less pronounced impact for each refiner. Our refining sector
report covers the South Eastern Mediterranean region (SEE)
and encompasses companies Motor Oil and Hellenic
Petroleum in Greece, and Tupras in Turkey. The Eastern
Mediterranean has unique advantages and a few refiners are
well positioned to gain from them. Demand for oil products is
not only resilient but growing. The shortage in refining capacity
especially for the production of desulphurised diesel keeps
Med diesel cracks at high levels. There is a rather
underdeveloped petrol station network in the Balkans. Finally,
there are high barriers to entry in Greece and Turkey.
Key themes The key themes are the softening of benchmark
refining margins, the correction of crude oil prices in Q3, the
strengthening of the US dollar, and the impact of the global
credit crisis on lending. Benchmark Med refining margins are
expected to see a correction in ’09, as a result of lower
demand for oil products globally combined with an increase in
capacity. Both heavy and light distillates should see a decrease
in refining margins, while margins for middle distillates should
remain high. However the decreasing availability or higher cost
of borrowings might delay some of the planned/ongoing
refinery projects and therefore curb new capacity additions.
Crude oil prices have fallen to ’06 levels and we expect the
trend to continue with restrictions put to commodity trading and
a softening in global oil consumption. The decrease in crude oil
prices, which is continuing in Q4, is expected to lead to
additional inventory losses for all refiners in the region, but at
these levels significant quarterly losses aren’t expected in the
medium term. The strengthening of the US dollar is anticipated
to lead to foreign exchange losses in the short-run as dollar
loans and trade payables are being re-evaluated, but to higher
margins in the longer run. Finally, the tightening in lending and
the increased interest rates related to the global credit crisis
could potentially threaten dividends and even profitability for
the most leveraged refiners.
But the impact on consumption of oil products should be
limited as demand in the region is seen as resilient in Greece
and growing in Turkey and the Balkans.
Estimates In light of these developments, we’ve revised our
crude oil price estimates to $70/bbl for ’09 and after and have
decreased our $/€ ratio. The decrease in oil prices y-o-y will
have a positive effect on working capital in ’09 and refinery
costs, while the strengthened US dollar will improve margins.
We have also revised our long-term refining margins to
account for the potential for overcapacity in the future due to
significant capacity additions taking place especially in the
Middle East and Asia. Finally we have made adjustments to
our net financial expenses estimates, taking into account the
increased spreads on debt.
We could experience a continued improvement of
benchmark refining margins in the next two quarters, but this
should be short-lived, in our view. Diesel and jet fuel spreads
could reach higher levels in ’09, and benefit the most flexible
refiners.
Top recommendations In this environment we believe that
refiners with a high level of complexity and with a low
leverage should outperform their peers.
Both Motor Oil and Tupras belong to our top picks list. Motor
Oil stands out for its level of complexity and for its ability to
maximise its production of middle distillates. Tupras is
strongly positioned in Turkey with refineries operating at the
heart of the country’s industrial region. It also has a strong
financial structure, with a high interest coverage ratio and
relatively low gearing, and offers an attractive dividend yield.
Hellenic Petroleum is well-diversified, despite its lower level
of complexity, its exposure to the energy sector with its power
generating unit and its 35% DEPA stake, could potentially
offset the declining refining business.

Stock Data Rating Target Price Upside Market YTD P/E EV/EBITDA P/BV Div Yield

Price 21/11/08 Potential Cap (mil) (%) 2008e 2009e 2008e 2009e 2008e 2009e 2008e 2009e
Hellenic Petroleum Neutral 6.5 5.4 20% 1,650 -52.1% 4.4 x 6.4 x 5.3 x 5.4 x 0.6 x 0.6 x 9.3% 9.0%
Motor Oil Outperform 14.0 8.0 75% 886 -49.4% 6.5 x 7.0 x 6.5 x 6.5 x 2.4 x 2.3 x 12.5% 11.3%
Tupras Outperform 23.6 12.30 92% 3080 -72% 2.8 x 2.8 x 1.7 x 2.8 x 0.7 x 0.6 x 34% 23%
Source: National P&K Securities Estimates, Finansinvest Estimates. Hellenic Petroleum and Motor Oil in EUR, Tupras in TRY.

The information and opinions in this report were prepared by National P&K Securities S.A. regulated by the Hellenic Capital Market Commission, FinansInvest regulated by the Capital Markets Board
This communication has been prepared by National P&K Securities S.A. and distributed in the United Kingdom by NBG International Limited.

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November 25th, 2008 Refining Sector

Contents

Pros and Cons of Greek-Turkish refining Page 3

Oil market Page 4

• A very volatile market

• Our oil price estimates

Global refining Page 5

• Capacity additions to lead to declining refining margins

• Deficit in secondary processing units to remain

SEE refining Page 6-10

• Growing market with a diesel deficit

• Med cracking margins

• Analysis of spreads per product

• Light/Heavy differential

• Environmental regulations

Refining sector per country Page 10-12

• Greece
• Turkey
• Romania

Peer Analysis Page 13-15

• Comparison of product slate
• Leverage analysis
• Dividend yield
• Relative valuation

Conclusion Page 16

Motor Oil Page 17

Hellenic Petroleum Page 18

Tupras Page 19

Disclosure appendix Page 20-22

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November 25th, 2008 Refining Sector

Pros and Cons of Greek-Turkish refining sector

Pros

Growing demand
Demand for oil products is growing in Turkey and the Balkans and is sustained in Greece.

Lower crude oil prices

The recent correction in crude oil prices will help limit to some extent the downward pressure
on demand for refinery products.

Eastern Mediterranean diesel shortage

Demand for diesel is increasing in the region and the diesel shortage in the Eastern
Mediterranean maintains diesel cracks at high levels. The deficit in secondary processing units
(hydrocrackers) is also expected to remain globally in the medium term.

High barriers to entry

There are high barriers to entry for foreign competitors. In the Greek market there are strict
environmental regulations and required licensing from the government. In Turkey the scarcity of
refinery sites near consumption areas (which is a main advantage of Tupras) is an important
barrier for entry.

Strategically positioned
Refiners in SEE are strategically positioned between East and West, and can respond to
demand in their local markets but also in other regions such as the Middle East. For instance, a
large share of Motor Oil’s growth comes from exports namely in the Middle East.

High light/heavy differential

The light/heavy differential remains at high levels, which benefits refiners that are able process
heavier crudes.

Strengthening US dollar
The recent strengthening of the US dollar is positive in the medium term for refiners as they
incurred part of their cost in their local currency while they sell in US dollars.

Cons

Refining Margin Volatility

From 2002 to 2006, a run of increasing refinery utilization rates worldwide lead in part to
increasing refinery margins. The trend is expected to reverse leading to gradually softening
refining margins. However the trend is expected to affect first refineries with a lower level of
complexity, while more complex refiners should maintain higher margins in the medium term.

Fluctuation in the US dollar

Refiners that have payables or loans in US dollars can incur extraordinary foreign exchange
losses upon a strengthening of the US currency.

Oil price volatility

Oil price volatility can drive negatively a refinery’s performance. For instance, sharp drops in oil
prices can lead to significant inventory losses, and can even affect refining margins. This can
affect refiners with high inventory levels due to local regulations.

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November 25th, 2008 Refining Sector

Oil market
A very volatile market

Oil prices have been very volatile over the last two years, going from c. $50 in early to 2007,
reaching c. $140 in mid-2008 and falling back to slightly above $50 today. Yet there haven’t
been major supply/demand imbalances globally and oil inventories in major consumer countries
have been at favourable levels.

According to OPEC, the main factors that explain this volatility are firstly the sharp slide and the
subsequent strengthening of the US dollar starting from September. Secondly, index trading,
and regulated and unregulated commodity trading, which have increased the share of
speculative buys in the market. Thirdly, geopolitical developments such as tensions in the
Middle East have had an impact. Fourthly, refining tightness has played a role in crude oil price
volatility.

One major factor remains the role of regulated oil futures and unregulated over-the-counter
(OTC) exchanges. For instance, the ratio of paper barrels traded on the NYMEX to the physical
barrels actually supplied has increased exponentially in recent years. Also assets allocated to
commodity index trading alone have risen from $13 billion at the end of 2003 to $260 by March
2008 according to OPEC. In the summer 2008, US Congress vowed to take action in order to
reverse runaway crude and gasoline prices and take steps to curb excessive speculation in the
oil market with the introduction of bill S. 3183 (“End Oil Speculation Act of 2008”). The bill is
focused on regulating traders abroad, raising margin limits for oil speculators, and limiting
access to hedge funds.

Urals Crude prices 2003-2008

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0
Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08

Source: Bloomberg.

Since September ‘08, oil prices have seen a sharp correction that we attribute mostly to: a) the
strength of the US dollar, b) steps taken in the US to curb speculation in the oil market, c) the
global economic slowdown.

We note that the International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a decrease in global oil demand
from this 20-year trend rate of 1.6% to 0.5% in ’08 and 0.8% in ’09, resulting from weakness of
demand in OECD country not offset by the non-OECD project robust demand growth (’08:
4.2%, ’09: 3.4%).
Our oil price estimates
Taking into account all these factors, we are using $70/bbl from 2009 onwards as a crude oil
price estimate in all our forecasts contained in this report.

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November 25th, 2008 Refining Sector

Global refining
Capacity additions expected to lead to lower refining margins
There is a large volume of new refining capacity being built worldwide. According to the BP
Statistical Review of World Energy, world refining capacity increased by 1.4% in 2007 to 87.5m
barrels a day (b/d), while refinery runs grew by 1.1% to 75.5 b/d. As a result, average utilisation
worldwide decreased to 85.9% in 2007 from 86.2% in 2006, and it is expected to reach c. 85%
in ’08.
According to OPEC’s reference case projections, the current list of announced refinery projects
equates to 7.6mb/d of new crude distillation capacity up to 2015 or a c. 19% increase in global
capacity. More than 40% of this additional capacity or 3.2 mb/d will be sited in Asia, mainly
China and India, with most projects scheduled for the period 2008-2010. 2 mb/d will be in the
Middle East, with projects expected to start operations after 2010, with an expected peak at
around 2012.

Distillation capacity additions 2008-2015

3.5

2.5

1.5

0.5

0
US & Latin Africa Europe FSU Middle Asia Pacific
Canada America East

Source:OPEC.

Even though the decline in refining margins is still not obvious in all regions of the world (e.g.
Europe), the anticipated increase in capacity, and associated decrease in capacity utilisation, is
expected to lead to a decrease in refinery profit margins, and to affect first refineries with a
lower level of complexity.

We note that as the graph above indicates, capacity additions will also be the lowest in Europe.

Deficit in secondary processing units to remain

In OPEC’s reference case, crude distillation unit additions by 2015 appear sufficient to cover
the increasing level of demand for oil products. However, those for secondary processing units
do not appear so.

Substantial such new additions are needed globally, especially for hydrocracking and
desulphurisation, to abide by environmental regulations (e.g. in Europe). Current data indicates
that the supply/demand gap especially for middle distillates will grow, and that spreads for
products such as diesel and jet fuel will likely increase. In Europe, studies show that the overall
market is anticipated to remain short of diesel by c. 500,000 barrels per day by 2010.

Therefore, refiners that have already invested in diesel-oriented projects are best positioned to
capture these higher spreads.

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November 25th, 2008 Refining Sector

SEE refining Growing market with a diesel deficit

The Eastern Mediterranean is a market with resilient demand, and it is especially strong for
diesel. According to a study from JBC Energy, the largest growth in demand in SEE is
anticipated to be for diesel, while demand for gasoline is expected to be marginally negative in
’09 and ’10.

South Eastern Europe – Product demand growth by Product (kb/d)

80
Other

60
Naphtha

40
Jet/Kero

20

Fuel Oil

0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Gasoline

-20

Gas Oil / Diesel

-40

LPG
-60

Source: JBC Energy.

In terms of net imports, net imports for diesel were positive in ’07 and in ’08, at over 100 kb/d
for ’08. Going forward, the trend is expected to continue, while the positive net exports balance
for gasoline should remain. This illustrates the deficit in refining capacity for diesel, which is
anticipated to maintain diesel cracks at high levels in the region.

South Eastern Europe – Product Net Imports by Product (kb/d)

350 LPG

Naphtha
250

Gasoline
150

Gas Oil / Diesel

50

Other
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
-50

Fuel Oil

-150
Jet/Kero

-250

Source: JBC Energy.

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November 25th, 2008 Refining Sector

Med cracking margins seen declining

The Urals Med Cracking refining margin fell from $6.21/bbl in the first ten months of ’07 to
$6.03/bbl in the first ten months of ’08. Refining margins have improved in Q3’08 but we
attribute the regained strength to: a) a series of planned and unplanned shutdown of refineries
in Europe ahead of the switch to 10 ppm sulphur, b) refinery outages in the US, c) lower crude
prices, which increased demand for refinery products.

Going forward, we expect the cracking refining margin to decrease due to global capacity
additions and stagnant consumption of refinery products. The table below outlines our
estimates for 2008-2010:
Urals Cracking Refining Margin ($/bbl)
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 H1’08 2008e 2009e 2010e
1.5 3.6 6.2 6.5 5.5 6.0 5.8 5.0 4.3 4.0
Source: International Energy Agency, National P&K Securities.

Urals cracking refining margin 2001-2008 ($/bbl)

14

12

10

0
Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08

Source: International Energy Agency.

Analysis of spreads per product

We have calculated the spreads per product (diesel, gasoline, jet fuel, 1% fuel oil) in the region,
using Mediterranean prices and the Urals crude (see graph in the next page).

The spread is the highest for jet fuel and diesel, with diesel being the most resilient to the
recent economic slowdown. The spreads for both products reach c. $250/tonne in October ‘08.
The gasoline spread is lower than last year reaching c. $50/tonne in October ’08, while the 1%
fuel oil spread remains at negative levels. This illustrates the deficit in middle distillates in SEE,
which results in superior spreads, while the surplus of gasoline remains.

We note that fuel oil has improved but we anticipate this to be short-lived, due to lower demand
worldwide. For instance, bunker fuel demand is expected to weaken again as international
maritime trade declines. The Baltic Dry Index dropped to its lowest level since November 2002,
which is an indication that maritime traffic will weaken dramatically. Furthermore, upcoming
capacity additions globally in ’09 should have the largest impact on heavy distillates. Going
forward we expect a deterioration of heavy distillates and light distillates cracks, namely
gasoline and fuel oil cracks, while we anticipate middle distillate cracks to remain at high levels
for at least two to three years, thanks to the tight supply/demand balance in SEE, leading to
favourable prices in the Eastern Mediterranean market.

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November 25th, 2008 Refining Sector

Med Diesel – Urals Spread ($/tonne) Med Gasoline – Urals Spread ($/tonne)

350 300

300
250

250

200

200

150

150

100

100

50
50

0 0
Jan-04 Jul -04 Jan-05 Jul -05 Jan-06 Jul -06 Jan-07 Jul -07 Jan-08 Jul -08 Jan-04 Jul -04 Jan-05 Jul -05 Jan-06 Jul -06 Jan-07 Jul -07 Jan-08 Jul -08

Med Jet fuel – Urals Spread ($/tonne) 1% Fuel Oil - Urals Spread ($/tonne)

450 0
Jan- 04 Jul- 04 Jan- 05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul- 06 Jan- 07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08

400

- 50

350

-100
300

250 -150

200
- 200

150

- 250
100

50 - 300

0
Jan-04 Jul -04 Jan-05 Jul -05 Jan-06 Jul -06 Jan-07 Jul -07 Jan-08 Jul -08 - 350

Source: Bloomberg.

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November 25th, 2008 Refining Sector

Light/heavy differential continues to benefit complex refiners

As the graph below indicates, the light/heavy differential increased substantially starting from
2005. The increase was largely driven by higher gasoline and later on diesel margins, which
increased demand for light sweet crudes.

We note though that heavy crude differentials have weakened in Q3 and the difference may
continue to be weak in Q4 as well due to seasonality. However, since Russia is currently
incurring losses on falling oil, Ural prices might widen again as soon as early next year.

In our view, the light/heavy differential should continue to remain strong in the medium term.
Firstly diesel refining margins are anticipated to remain high, and push consumption of light
sweet crudes. Secondly, we believe that fuel oil prices will correct and continue to compete with
heavy sour grades, hence easing demand for heavier crudes. Thirdly, crudes such as the
Iranian heavy are expected to remain priced at lower levels due to the ban placed on the
country by the U.S..

Differential WTI and Maya ($/bbl)

30

25

20

15

10

0
Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08

Source: Bloomberg.

Ural-Brent and Iran Heavy-Brent Differential ($/bbl)

Ural - Brent Diff. 9
120 Iran Heavy - Brent Diff. 8
7
100 BRENT
5.2 6
80 4.8
5
4.0 4.0 3.8
60 3.3 4
2.5 3
40 1.9 1.9
1.5 2
20 0.9
1
0 0
Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08
Source: Bloomberg.

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November 25th, 2008 Refining Sector

Europe specs and environmental regulations

EU has imposed an environment legislation that will take effect in ’09 stating the level of sulfur
at 10 ppm in both diesel and gasoline fuels. Significant capital investments and maintenance by
refiners have been necessary to reach the new stated level. This forced many refiners in
Europe to shut down for extended periods of time, thus limiting supply and leading to an
improvement of refining margins in Q3’08.

In our view, the new regulation in Europe will also increase the barriers to entry for non-EU
refiners that do not have to abide by the new specs.

Strengthening US dollar and lower oil prices to help margins

We note that the $/€ ratio went from $1.56/€ in Q2’08 to $1.51/€ in Q3’08, to reach $1.43/€ at
the end of September. A stronger US dollar is good for refining margins as refiners usually sell
their products in US dollars, while part of their costs are in their local currency (e.g. Euro).
We note that lower crude prices are good for refiners as usually refiners use 4-5% of crude
purchased in the refining process. We estimate that for each $10/bbl decline the impact is c.
$0.4 - $0.5/bbl, savings that we incorporate in our models.

Greece Market description

Oil and refinery products are the main source of energy in Greece, and account for c. 60% of
energy consumption. According to Business Monitor International, Greece will account for 3.5%
of Developed European regional oil demand by 2012, while making no contribution to supply.
Consumption of oil products is at c. 22m Mt in ’08. The country’s oil consumption is rising at c.
2% per year and is expected to reach 510,000 b/d by ‘12 from c. 460,000 b/d in ’07, or a 10%
increase over the period.

Greece’s current consumption exceeds local refinery production, and the country remains a net
importer of diesel. Diesel demand is increasing, as it is extensively used in the residential
sector (about one third of consumption). It has also become the preferred oil product used by
the industrial sector. The trend is expected to continue and Greece should remain a net
importer of diesel in the medium to long-term.

Players

The main players in the market are Hellenic Petroleum and Motor Oil. Hellenic Petroleum is the
largest refiner in the country and operates three refinery units: Aspropyrgos, Elfsina and
Salonica, which have a Nelson Complexity Index (NCI) of 9.69, 1.35, and 5.06 respectively.
Hellenic Petroleum also operates an extensive network of gasoline stations across Greece
under the trademark EKO.

Motor Oil operates a refinery in Agioi Theodori, which has a NCI of 11.95. It is the sole
producer of lubricants. Hellenic Petroleum plans to construct a hydrocracker and a coking unit
at its Elfsis refinery, which is anticipated to be operational by ‘11.

The Greek market is fully liberalised, and open to private and foreign competition. However
barriers to entry to the market are high. Firstly, Greece is remote from Western Europe, which
makes it less accessible to foreign competitors. Secondly, the capital needed to establish a
distribution network is high, while the two local players already have an established chain of
petrol stations that covers the mainland and the islands. Thirdly, Greece abides by strict
environmental regulations and licensing is difficult to obtain. For instance, Greece follows EU
specifications for sulfur content, which keeps out foreign competitors that have not invested to
reach the EU stated levels.

We believe that players already established in Greece have a competitive advantage and thus
we estimate the country premium at c. $3/bbl for ’09.

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Turkey Market description

Turkey consumed 31m tons of oil products in 2007, indicating a CAGR of 3.7% since 2000.
Since the beginning of the decade, demand for diesel grew at a CAGR of 6.8%, reflecting
consumption trends favoring diesel over gasoline for efficiency reasons. In the same period,
consumption of gasoline declined on average by 1.4% pa as a result of expanding use of diesel
engine vehicles. Jet fuel has been one of the fastest growing oil products with a CAGR of 6.1%.
Rising competition in the Turkish airline industry with new entrants in recent years resulted in
more affordable ticket prices, driving the rapid rise in this product. Use of fuel oil has been
rapidly declining with a -9.8% pa, due to wider use of natural gas.

Looking ahead, Turkey combines favorable dynamics to set stage for a robust growth in the oil
market with a strategic location between east and west, favorable demographics, EU
convergence story and efforts to reduce illicit trade. We expect growth drivers to remain diesel
and jet fuel. We expect demand for diesel to approximate 18m tons by 2015, representing a
35% growth over 2007.

Turkey-Consumption of Oil Products

40.0

35.0

30.0

25.0

20.0

15.0

10.0

5.0

0.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2015F

Diesel Gasoline Jet Fuel Fuel Oil LPG Naphta Asphalt Others

Source: Turkish Petroleum Distributors’ Association, Tupras and Finansinvest estimates.

Similar to Europe, Turkey is short of diesel, long gasoline and fuel oil. Turkey’s sole refiner
Tupras’ production capacity of 28m tons is lower than the country’s demand with the deficit
being significantly sizeable in diesel due to a mismatch between refining output mix and
consumption trends. As a result, Turkey needs to import more than half of its diesel
consumption, which was equivalent to 7.5m tons in 2007. Tupras aims to increase its diesel
production capacity to 9.4m tons/pa by 2013, which will still be insufficient to meet an estimated
demand of 16-17m tons.

Turkey-Diesel Imbalance

58%
2007

44%
2006

38%
2005

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0

Consumption Imports

Source: Turkish Petroleum Distributors’ Association and Petrol Ofisi.

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November 25th, 2008 Refining Sector

Players, Investments
Turkey’s deficit in diesel and a global rise in refining margins in recent years have set the stage
for increasing interest in refinery investments in Turkey. The government is aiming to develop
an energy hub in Ceyhan, which is a Mediterranean port at the south end of BTC pipeline.
There have been four applications to build a refinery in Ceyhan with planned capacities totaling
45m tons. Of these, only one has received a permanent license from the Energy Authority and
none of the projects have started yet. We expect only one or two of the investments to be
realized given rising costs of investments, a likely softening in global refining margins and the
potential excess supply (especially in gasoline and fuel oil) if all projects are realized.
Considering the construction period, new entrant(s) are not expected to become operational
before five years, indicating Tupras will remain to be Turkey’s only domestic refiner in the mid
term.

In Turkey, scarcity of refinery sites near consumption areas (which is a main advantage of
Tupras) is an important barrier for entry. A competitior would incur increased costs relative to
Tupras due to additional transportation costs. However, it is not enough to deter a new entrant
in the market but rather it is a disadvantage. The current credit crunch might delay new
competition. We note that Tupras also has a long established relationship with customers and
pipelines connected to customers and large storage facilities.

Turkey deregulated pricing and competition in the petroleum sector in 2005. State owned
refiner Tupras was privatized in 2006. Tupras remains to be the only player in the market and is
51% owned by Koc Group.

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Peer analysis
Product slate per company

Tupras - Product slate

LPGOthers
Jet Fuel
3% 3% Naphta
13%
3%
Asphalt
9% In 2008, Tupras preferred jet fuel over
Gasoline
19%
diesel in production to benefit from strong
jet fuel demand, partly stemming from
China demand related to the Olympics. As
Fuel Oil a result, Tupras' jet yield increased by 2pp
22% YoY to 13%.

Diesel
28%

Source: Tupras.
Hellenic Petroleum – Product slate
Jet fuels Other
9% 10%
Hellenic Petroleum has the lowest
Heating oil production of diesel among the four peers
10% in its production slate, with diesel
Gasoline
production at 24%. However with the
23%
completion of the Elfsis upgrade, we
anticipate an increase in middle distillates
production, including diesel and jet fuel,
Fuel oil but that should take effect only starting
24% from ’11.
Diesel
24%
Source: Hellenic Petroleum.

Motor Oil – Product slate

LiquidLubricants
gases 2%
Jet fuels Special Motor Oil has the highest production of
3%
10% products middle distillates, reaching about half of its
5% total production. The company already has
invested in a hydrocracker and has the
Gasoline Fuel oil capability to maximize its production of
22% 21% diesel. Versus its peers, Motor Oil has the
highest share of diesel at 37%, which is
currently one of the highest margin refinery
product.

Diesel
37%
Source: Motor Oil.

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Level of complexity: Motor Oil wins in level of complexity

The table below depicts the level of each refiner analysed in this report. Motor Oil stands
out with a NCI of 11.95, followed by Tupras, and Hellenic Petroleum. We favour refiners
with a higher level of complexity, as we view them as the most flexible and most able to
increase production of higher margin oil products, all while taking advantage of the
light/heavy differential.

Nelson Complexity Index (NCI) by refiner

Refiner NCI
Hellenic Petroleum 6.30
Salonica 6.70
Elefsina 1.50
Aspropyrgos 10.60
Skopje 4.30
Motor Oil 11.95
Tupras 7.25
Izmit 7.78
Kirrikale 6.32
Izmir 7.66
Batman 1.83
Source: Hellenic Petroleum, Motor Oil, Tupras.

Leverage analysis: Tupras wins in financial strength

Leverage ratios – ‘08 estimates

Hell. Petroleum Motor Oil Tupras
Liabilities to Equity 1.1 4.0 1.8
Bank Debt to Equity 45% 240% 21%
Fixed to Total Assets 31.4% 44% 28%
Debt / EBITDA 195% 320% 46%
Interest Coverage 5.4 5.0 12.5
Source: National P&K Securities, Finansinvest.

Motor Oil is by far the most leveraged refiner among the four companies in our universe
with a bank debt to equity at 2.4x and a debt to EBITDA at 3.2x. However it is worth
noting that its interest coverage ratio remains at reasonable levels and is comparable to
its most direct competitor in Greece, Hellenic Petroleum. Motor Oil’s superior refining
assets allow the company to maintain a high operating profit and hence sustain higher
levels of debt. We expect the trend to continue in the medium term as the company
takes advantage of the supply/demand imbalance for diesel in SEE.

In our view, Hellenic Petroleum is the most exposed to the softening of refining margins
expected for ’09. Its interest coverage ratio could reach lower levels as the company
increases its leverage while margins deteriorate.

Tupras is far from heavily leveraged with US$595mn in financial debt as of Sept. 08,
corresponding to a Debt/Equity ratio of 15%. Adjusted for US$395mn of cash at hand,
the company's net debt position stands at US$200mn. Tupras generates strong, steady
cash flow from operations, which reached US$691mn in 9M07 (2007:US$1.2bn).

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Dividend yield: Tupras has the highest dividend yield

2008e dividend yield

Hell. Petroleum Motor Oil Tupras
9.3% 12.5% 34.0%
National P&K Securities, Finansinvest.

Tupras offers the highest dividend yield vs. its two other peers. As a company policy, all
of the distributable income is paid out as dividends, which also makes the company one
of the best dividend plays in the ISE. In 2007, Tupras distributed US$824mn of
dividends (TRY4.2/sh) and we estimate a 09F dividend yield of 23.9% at the current
price, although this will ultimately depend on the year end TRY/US$ rate, which will
determine the extent of FX losses and therefore net income for FY2008.

Relative valuation

Our relative valuation includes Motor Oil, Hellenic Petroleum, Tupras, Neste Oil, Erg
SpA, Saras SpA, MOL (Magyar Olay Es Gazipar), PKN (Polski Koncern Naftow), OMV
AG.

Relative Valuation
%
Market P/E P/E EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA P/BV P/BV
Country Change
Cap. 08 09 08 09 08 09
YTD
Motor Oil Hellas* 886 Greece 6.5 x 7.0 x 6.5 x 6.5 x 2.4 x 2.3 x -49.4%

Hellenic Petroleum* 1,650 Greece 4.4 x 6.4 x 5.3 x 5.4 x 0.6 x 0.6 x -52.1%

Tupras* 3581 Turkey 2.8 x 2.8 x 1.7 x 2.8 x 0.7 x 0.6 x -72%

Erg SpA 1,562 Italy 12.2 x 13.1 x 3.8 x 3.9 x 0.7 x 0.6 x -19.3%

Neste 2,428 Finland 5.4 x 5.4 x 3.9 x 4.1 x 0.9 x 0.8 x -60.8%

Saras SpA 2,786 Italy 8.9 x 10.9 x 4.3 x 4.8 x 1.7 x 1.7 x -26.3%

MOL (Magyar Olay) 3,428 Hungary 3.5 x 4.1 x 3.0 x 3.4 x 0.8 x 0.7 x -66.2%

PKN 2,691 Poland 5.0 x 6.0 x 3.9 x 4.1 x 0.5 x 0.5 x -56.4%

OMV AG 5,010 Austria 2.5 x 3.2 x 1.9 x 2.2 x 0.5 x 0.5 x -69.9%
Source: JCF. *: National P&K securities, Finansinvest. EUR for Hellenic Petroleum and Motor Oil. TRY for Tupras.

Tupras usually trades at deep discounts to peers, partly driven by high financial income
from interest earnings on taxes Tupras collects on behalf of the government and keeps
in company coffers for an average of 18 days. Tax collections are sizeable as Turkey
taxes oil heavily. In order to eliminate this discrepancy and focus more on operational
strength, we compare Tupras with peers on EV/EBITDA basis.

Motor Oil trades in line vs. its most direct peers on a ’08 P/E basis, but at a premium on
an EV/EBITDA basis compared to its most direct peers (Hellenic Petroleum, Erg, Neste,
Saras). We view the premium as justified considering: a) its significantly higher dividend
yield vs. its peers, b) its high level of complexity, c) its strategy of expansion.

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Conclusion

The Eastern Mediterranean has unique characteristics. Demand for oil products is not
only resilient but also growing. The shortage in refining capacity and the too many
outdated refineries in the region keep Med diesel spreads at high levels. The large
number of crude oil suppliers closeby, be it in Russia or the Middle East, allow some
refineries to optimise their crude mix. Refiners can expand their marketing activities in
the Balkans, which offer higher margins.

There are also important barriers to entry in Greece and Turkey, and the new ’09
European specifications will increase those barriers further in the EU. Finally, we expect
the stronger $ and lower crude oil prices to have a positive impact on margins.

In our view, refiners best positioned in the Eastern Mediterranean are those with the
ability to maximise their production of middle distillates and to take advantage of: a) the
high diesel cracks, b) the large number of alternative crude oil suppliers, c) the high
light/heavy differential, which remains at c. $15/bbl in October ’08.

Hence, Motor Oil with its NCI of 11.95 sets itself apart as it can optimise its crude mix
and maximise its production of middle distillates. Other refiners are already investing in
such upgrades: Hellenic Petroleum plans to have a hydrocracker and a cocker
operational by ’11. The Tupras residuum upgrades investment, expected to be fully
operational by ‘12-’13, is aimed at exploiting the imbalance between fuel oil and diesel.
The project is expected to increase overall white product yield to 83% (68% in 2007),
and the overall NCI of Tupras to 9.5.

Tupras remains a winner in terms of leverage, dividend yield, and relative valuation. It
has the highest interest coverage ratio, and lowest debt to equity ratio vs. its two other
peers in the region. In times of increasing debt spreads and softening margins, we view
this rather low level of leverage as a significant advantage. Tupras also offers the
highest dividend yield vs. its two other peers and is one of the best dividend plays in the
ISE. This is expected to remain in ’09. Finally, it trades at deep discounts vs. all its
peers in Europe, and thus remains attractive in terms of valuation.

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Victor Labate

Outperform
Industrials/Oil&Gas Analyst
+30210 7720076
labate@nationalpk.nbg.gr
Energy

Positioned to gain from continuing European diesel shortage

Price: € 8.0 New 12M target price: € 14.0 Investment highlights

(closing date 21/11/08)
Previous 12M target price: € 14.0
Pros
Athens General Index at 1,826.41 (closing date 21/11/08)
The group generates high economic profits. Based on our
Key figures calculations, ROIC exceeded WACC in the past two years by
2007 2008e 2009e 2010e
c. 10%. ROE is at high levels and is expected to remain so
Revenues (€ m) 4,070 5,612 4,660 5,697 going forward.
EBITDA (€ m) 296 275 266 341
Very attractive dividend yield (10.6% in ‘07). The group also
Profit after-tax (€ m) 150 137 126 182
traditionally distributes an interim dividend in November.
EPS (€) 1.35 1.23 1.14 1.64
EPS chng (%) 17.2% -8.9% -7.8% 44.2% The Eastern Mediterranean is a growing market, and
DPS (€) 1.20 1.00 0.90 1.20 demand for diesel is especially strong creating a capacity
P/E (x) 11.7 6.5 7.0 4.9 shortage in the region and thus benefiting Motor Oil.
EV/EBITDA (x) 8.3 6.5 6.5 5.2
EV/EBIT (x) 10.0 7.9 7.9 6.0 Few refineries in Europe currently have a unit with a Nelson
EV/Turnover (x) 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.3 Complexity Index of 11.95, Motor Oil’s level of complexity,
RoE (%) 42.5% 37.3% 33.5% 42.6% which allows it to alter its refinery configuration and to
ROIC (%) 16.5% 13.4% 13.3% 16.2% produce high value-added products. Motor Oil is also
Free Cash Flow Yield (%) 6.7% -6.0% 17.8% 6.6% strategically better positioned among its European
Dividend Yield (%) 7.6% 12.5% 11.3% 15.0% competitors at least in the medium term.
P/BV (x) 4.8 2.4 2.3 1.9
Source: National P&K Research estimates
Domestic competition is limited to two main players in the
Greek market: Hellenic Petroleum and Motor Oil. There are
high barriers to entry due to strict environmental regulations
Stock data and licensing, and the very capital intensive nature of the
Greek market.
52-week price range 6.50 – 17.10
Outstanding No of shares 110,782,980 Because of its high complexity MOH has the ability to
Avg. daily shares traded 134,570 choose from different suppliers available in the area, a fact
Market Cap in Euro m 886 that allows the company to continuously optimise its
Reuters / Bloomberg MORr.AT / MOH GA feedstock.
Free Float 38.4%
Vardinoyiannis Group 61.6%
MOH’s sales are in all three main markets works as a “safety
Absolute performance in 07 -19.1% net”, and they have the ability to optimise their profit margins
in 08 -49.4% according the supply and demand in each market.
Contact name / telephone S. Balezos / +30 (210) 8094169 Even though MOH complies with the regulation for domestic
sales, a large share of its sales is abroad and as a
Company Description consequence its average inventory is significantly less than
any other land-locked European refinery. Thus, Motor Oil is
Motor Oil is the second refining and petroleum marketing company in Greece, with
c. 25% of total domestic refining capacity and a network of nearly 575 retail less exposed to the volatility in oil prices.
stations. The group is involved in crude oil refining as well as the wholesale and
retail marketing and distribution of refined petroleum products through its Cons
subsidiary Avin Oil. The refinery located in Ag. Theodoroi, 70km outside Athens, is
equipped with a crude oil distillation unit, a catalytic reforming unit, a hydro- We expect a softening of benchmark refining margins. But
processing unit, catalytic and thermal cracking units, and a hydrocracking unit. The the trend is expected to affect less refineries with a higher
group’s production includes lubricants, liquid gases, gasolines, jet fuels, special level of complexity in the medium term.
products, diesels, and fuels oils. It group has the only lubricant production complex
in Greece. Motor Oil is exposed to potential foreign exchange losses. It
is naturally hedged on a balance-sheet basis, as it tries to
match asset and liabilities per currency basis trying to
smooth out in the short to medium-term foreign currency
volatility.

Catalysts
The CDU investment will allow Motor Oil to expand its
production by ’10, boost volumes and improve margins.

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Victor Labate
Industrials/Oil&Gas Analyst
+30210 7720076
labate@nationalpk.nbg.gr
Energy Neutral

Contribution of non-refining activities remains priced in at

current levels

Price: €5.40 New 12M target price: € 6.5 Investment highlights

(closing price 21/11/08)
Previous 12M target price: € 6.5
Pros
Athens General Index at 1,826.41 (Closing price 21/11/08)
High barriers to entry for foreign competitors due to strict
Key figures environmental regulations, and large amount of capital needed
2007 2008e 2009e 2010e to enter the Greek market.
Revenues (€ m) 8,538 9,198 7,980 8,378 Sustainable demand, as the Eastern Mediterranean is a
EBITDA (€ m) 617 479 496 515 market with resilient demand for oil products, especially diesel
Profit after-tax (€ m) 365 367 251 246 due to the shortage in the region and rising global demand.
EPS (€) 1.15 1.23 0.84 0.82
EPS chng (%) 35.0% 6.6% -31.6% -2.2% Hellenic Petroleum activities are diversified and include
P/E (x) 9.8 4.4 6.4 6.6 refining, marketing, petrochemicals, power, E&P, and gas,
EV/EBITDA (x) 7.2 5.3 5.4 6.2 while non-refining activities are growing and taking a larger of
EV/EBIT (x) 9.3 7.5 7.8 9.3 the group’s EBITDA.
EV/Turnover (x) 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3
P/BV (x) 1.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 We favor CEO Mr. Costopoulos and the group’s new
RoE (%) 15.4% 14.6% 9.4% 8.9% experienced management.
ROIC (%) 9.8% 6.5% 5.9% 5.1% Hellenic Petroleum has a rather strong balance sheet and self-
Free Cash Flow Yield (%) 5.9% 15.5% 5.1% -16.8%
Dividend Yield (%) 4.4%
financing ability. Management target leverage ratio is at 30%,
9.3% 9.0% 8.8%
Source: National P&K Research estimates
and the group has a high current ratio and interest coverage.
Cons
Stock data We expect a softening of benchmark refining margins.
52 week low/high 4.84 – 12.44 Oil price volatility can drive negatively a refinery’s
Outstanding No of shares 305,516,704 performance. For instance, sharp drops in oil prices can lead
Avg daily shares (3m) traded 156,037 to significant inventory losses, and can even affect refining
Market cap in € m 1,650 margins.
Reuters / Bloomberg ELPE GA / HEPr.AT
Free float (e) 28.6% HEP has rather low returns compared to local competitor
Latsis Group 35.9% Motor Oil, despite the fact that 60% of the company’s portfolio
Greek State 35.5% (Aspropyrgos refinery, EKO, Polypropylene chain, Cyprus
Absolute performance in '07 +8.0% assets) has returns higher than 10%.
in '08 -52.1%
Fluctuations in the US $ is a concern as refining margins (thus
Contact name / telephone Mr. G. Grigoriou / +30 210 5539109
profits) are quoted in $ and operating costs in €.
Company Description Hellenic Petroleum’s Nelson Complexity Index stands below
Motor Oil’s and below or at par with the index of other
Hellenic Petroleum is the country’s largest refining and petroleum marketing European competitors. Though the company’s upgrade plan
company, with 70% of total domestic refining capacity and a network of nearly
1,512 retail stations. The company has also has a 54% stake in FYROM’s Okta
will raise the index from 6.9 to 9.0 increasing middle distillate
refinery and a 35% stake in Greece’s natural gas company DEPA. The Greek production (white, higher margin products) at the expense of
state is the controlling shareholder with 35.5% of the outstanding shares. fuel oil, it will not happen until 2011. Thus, Hellenic Petroleum
will continue to refine a large part of its production through
Topping and Hydroskimming processes, yielding low-margin
products.
Catalysts
Hydrocracker and cocker investment to take effect by ’11 will
improve the company’s refining margins.

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Elif Tore Yurdum

Oil&Gas/Conglomerates
Senior Analyst
+90212 3367280
Energy Outperform
elif.tore@finansinvest.com

Slimmer margins loom but still a cash cow

Price: TRY 12.30 New 12M target price: TRY 23.6 Investment highlights
(closing date 21/11/08)
Previous 12M target price: TRY 23.6
Pros
ISE National 100 Index at 21,966.0 (closing date 21/11/08)
Favorable locations of Tupras’ refineries at the heart of
Key figures Turkey’s industry region.
2007 2008e 2009e 2010e Only player in the market with potential entry of new
Revenues ($ m) 17,315 24,152 17,572 16,981 competitors not expected before the next five years.
EBITDA ($ m) 1,069 1,216 736 755
Profit after-tax ($ m) 998 665 658 639 Strong financial structure with a cash balance of US$395mn
EPS ($) 4.0 2.7 2.6 2.5 as of Sept 08. Net of the company’s financial debt, net debt is
EPS chng (%) 74% -33% -1% -3% US$199mn; 21% of net income in 9M08.
DPS ($) 2.0 3.3 1.9 1.7
P/E (x) Ability to process heavy crude oils helps it to reduce crude
1.8 2.8 2.8 2.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 1.9 1.7 2.8 2.7
costs.
EV/EBIT (x) 2.1 1.8 3.1 3.0 High storage capacity.
RoE (%) 33% 21% 23% 22%
Dividend Yield (%) 8% 34% 23% 22% Cons
P/BV (x) 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6
Source: Finansinvest Research estimates.
Excess fuel oil and gasoline capacity.
Not fully integrated thus a heavy exposure to global refining
margins.
Stock data
A relatively low complexity due to delayed investments under
52 week low/high TRY 11.2 - 33.5 state ownership until 2006.
Outstanding No of shares 250,419,200
Avg. daily shares (3m) traded in $ 20.34m Although the company’s operations are hedged against
Market cap in TRY 3080m currency fluctuations with the automatic pricing mechanism,
Reuters / Bloomberg TUPRS TI / TUPRS.IS depreciation of TRY causes mostly non-cash FX losses on
Free float 46% TRY based financial reports, therefore leading to potential
Institutional ownership 78% volatility in earnings.
Out/Under performance in '07 8%
So far in '08 3.3%
Although the company itself is not an oil producer, fall in oil
IR Contact name / Telephone Filiz Derman / +90 262 316 32 69 prices lead to temporary inventory losses in financials.
Potential rise in competition in Turkey in the mid term.
Company Description
Softening refining margins globally.
Tupras is Turkey’s sole refinery, operating four oil refineries, with a total of 28.1
mn tons annual crude oil processing capacity. Tupras’ NCI is 7.25. In an effort to Global credit crunch might delay key residuum upgrade
increase profitability and better match consumption trends, Tupras has been project, tough a large proportion of the borrowing for the
undertaking investments to increase its white product yield, which stood at 68%
as of 9M08. Diesel had a 28% share in the company’s product mix, while
investment is planned for 2010 and 2011.
gasoline and jet fuel yields were 19% and 13%, respectively.
Catalysts
Tupras is initiating a US$1.6bn residuum upgrade project in Izmit refinery this
year. Aimed at exploiting the imbalance between fuel oil and diesel, the Capitalize on shortage for diesel via the residuum upgrade
residuum upgrade investment is expected to be fully operational by 2012-2013. project.
The project is expected to increase overall white product yield to 83% (68% in
2007), NCI of Izmit refinery to 11.5 from 7.8 and overall NCI of Tupras to 9.5. Ready for implementation of Euro 5 specifications in 2009.
We expect this investment to come to Tupras’ aid at an appropriate time,
considering the expectations of softening in global refining margin cycle in the Government’s efforts to reduce illicit trade.
years ahead. Tupras plans to finance the majority of the investment (about two
thirds) through long-term loans without impacting its high dividend pay-out Reduction in high taxes in Turkey could spur demand,
policy. although this is not in the government’s short-term agenda.

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Disclosure Appendix

This document is jointly issued by the following companies (hereinafter referred to as the "Companies"):

a)National P&K Securities S.A., Michalakopoulou 91, 115 28, Athens, Greece.
Regulatory Authority : Hellenic Capital Market Commission.
b)Finans Yatirim Menkul Degerler A.S., Nispetiye Cad. Akmerkez B Kule Kat:2, 34330, Etiler, Istanbul, Turkey
Regulatory Authority : Capital Markets Board

None of the Companies engaged in any agreement with the subject companies for the preparation of this report.

The present report has solely informative use. The comments contented herein do not constitute buy, hold or sell suggestions under any circumstances. The information contained in this report including any expression of opinion has been taken
from sources believed to be reliable but it cannot be guaranteed and no warranty or representation is given that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. The Companies and/or their associated group
companies or a person or persons connected with the companies may from time to time act on their own account in transactions in any securities mentioned herein. The Companies may do and may seek to do business with companies covered
in its research reports. Therefore, investors should be aware that there might be a conflict of interest that could influence the impartiality of this report. Investors should consider this report as only one of the factors influencing their investment
decision. Securities contented in this report are subject to investment risks, including, but without being limited thereto, the loss of the initial capital invested, fluctuations of market prices and exchange rates, uncertainty of dividends, performance
and/or profits. This report is addressed to professional investors only and no part of this report may be reproduced or passed on in any manner without prior permission. We verify that this report has been prepared according to our regulations
and guidelines concerning conflict management. According to the Companies regulations, the Equity Analysis Departments thereof are restricted to communicate and publish only the necessary data according to applicable laws. The Companies
implement the appropriate procedures to ensure Chinese walls with Investment banking. The Companies conform to the relative regulations regarding confidential information and market abuse.

This marketing communication is issued in the United Kingdom by NBG International Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. This document does not constitute or form part of an offer or invitation to
subscribe for or purchase or sell or solicitation of any offer to subscribe for or purchase or sell any securities referred to herein and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with
any contract or commitment whatsoever. The information contained in this document including any expression of opinion has been taken from sources believed to be reliable but it cannot be guaranteed and no warranty or representation is given
that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Any opinions expressed by us herein reflect our judgment at this date and are subject to change without notice. NBG International Limited and/or its
associated group companies or a person or persons connected with us may from time to time act on their own account in transactions in any securities mentioned herein or in any related investment or may act as a market maker or may have
acted in some capacity in relation to a public offering of such securities in the past. Additional information regarding this will be furnished upon request. This document is furnished to you alone and no part of this report may be reproduced or
passed on in any manner without the prior written permission of NBG International Limited. This document is for distribution in the United Kingdom only to persons who (i) have professional experience in matters relating to investments falling
within Article 19(5) of the FSMA 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005; or (ii) who are persons falling within article 49(2)(a) to (d) (“high net worth companies, unincorporated associations etc”) of the FSMA 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order
2005; or (iii) to whom it may otherwise lawfully be communicated. This report is directed only at such persons and must not be acted on or relied on by any other person. Any investment or investment activity to which this report relates is available
only to such persons and will be engaged in only with such person.

The information herein has been obtained from, and any opinions herein are based upon, sources believed to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. All opinions, forecasts and
estimates herein reflect our judgment on the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. The report is not intended to be an offer, or the solicitation of any offer, to buy or sell the securities referred to herein. From time to time
NBGI or its affiliates or the principals or employees of NBGI or its affiliates may have a position in the securities referred to herein or hold options, warrants or rights with respect thereto or other securities of such issuers and may make a market
or otherwise act as principal in transactions in any of these securities. NBGI or its affiliates or the principals or employees of NBGI or its affiliates may from time to time provide investment banking or consulting services to or serve as a director of
a company being reported on herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained from NBGI upon request.

All opinions suggestions and estimates for each company contended in this report constitute the personal views of the respective author. It is certified that the analysts’ personal views or specific suggestions expressed in this report were not and
will not be in any case linked directly or indirectly with the analysts’ compensation.

The Companies’ policy is to update research reports, as they deem appropriate, based on developments with the subject company, the sector or the market that may have a material impact on the research view or opinions stated herein.

Disclosure Checklist for Companies mentioned & other price data information
Company Name Reuters Rating Price Price date / time Disclosure

Hellenic Petroleum HEPr.AT Neutral € 5.40 21/11/08 / Closing -

Motor Oil MORr.AT Outperform € 8.00 -

21 11 08 / Closing
TRY
Tupras TUPRS.IS Outperform -
12.30 21/11/08 / Closing
Source: National P&K Securities

1. National P&K Securities and/or its affiliate(s) has acted as manager/co-manager/adviser in the underwriting or placement of securities of this company within the past 12 months.
2. National P&K Securities and/or its affiliate(s) has received compensation for investment banking services from this company during the past 12 months.
3. National P&K Securities and/or its affiliate(s) makes a market in the securities of this company.
4. National P&K Securities and its affiliate(s) own five percent or more of the total share capital of this company.
5. The company and its affiliate(s) own five percent or more of the total share capital of National P&K Securities and its affiliates.
6. National P&K Securities has sent the research report to the company prior to publication for factual verification.
7. Following 6, National P&K Securities has changed the contents of the initially sent research report, with respect to: no change.
8. National P&K Securities has received compensation from the company for the preparation of this research report.
9. National P&K Securities has acted as a broker in share buybacks and/or own shares sales of securities of this company within the past 12 months.
10. National P&K Securities has acted as an arranger and/or credit facilitator and/or advisor in the issuance of convertible bonds and/or in the provision of credit facility.

Risks and sensitivity:

The views and recommendations for the companies mentioned in this daily report have various levels of risk depending on company, industry and market events. In addition, our target prices and estimates for the companies mentioned in this
daily report are sensitive to various factors including interest rates, inflation, the local economic environment, market volatility, management continuity or other company specific events.

Ratings Distribution Greece

Outperform Neutral Underperform
Greek Equity Research Coverage (50) 56% 39% 6%
% of companies in each rating category that are investment banking clients 54% 34% 17%
Source: National P&K Securities

Ratings Distribution Turkey

Outperform Neutral Underperform
Turkish Equity Research Coverage (64) 38% 43% 19%
% of companies in each rating category that are investment banking clients n.a. n.a. n.a.
Source: Finansinvest

Definition of Investment Ratings

Outperform, Neutral, Underperform: Denote notional investment ratings (not recommendations) pegged to the performance of the General Index, which imply a positive, neutral and negative view respectively.
Outperform: The stock is expected to perform above the General Index.
Neutral: The stock is expected to perform in line with the General Index.
Underperform: The stock is expected to perform below the General Index.

Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained from the Companies and/or their affiliate(s) upon request.
All prices and valuation multiples are based on the closing of the market’s last session prior to the issue of the report, unless stated otherwise.

Page 20
 Date of first publication:

November 25th, 2008 Refining Sector

National P&K Securities S.A.

Member of the Institutional Sales: Research:
Athens Stock Exchange Efthimios Louziotis +30 210 7720506 elouziotis@nationalpk.nbg.gr Vassilis Theodorou +30 210 7720170 τheodorou@nationalpk.nbg.gr
Zoi Tsoukali +30 210 7720587 ztsoukali@nationalpk.nbg.gr Theodore Ritsos +30 210 7720176 t.ritsos@nationalpk.nbg.gr
91 Michalakopoulou Str. Dimitra Triantafillopoulou +30 210 7720578 dtriant@nationalpk.nbg.gr George Boulougaris +30 210 7720171 gboulougaris@nationalpk.nbg.gr
115 28 Athens, Greece Merve Kosker +30 210 7720122 kosker@nationalpk.nbg.gr Ioanna Katsoula +30 210 7720184 katsoula@nationalpk.nbg.gr
Zois Mpeloumpasis +30 210 7720146 zbelou@nationalpk.nbg.gr Panagiotis Kladis, CFA +30 210 7720185 kladis@nationalpk.nbg.gr
Tel: +30 210 7720000 Damianos Papakonstantinou +30 210 7720130 damianosp@nationalpk.nbg.gr Nick Koskoletos, CFA +30 210 7720187 koskoletos@nationalpk.nbg.gr
Fax: +30 210 7720001 Yorgi Papazisis +30 210 7720106 yorpapa@nationalpk.nbg.gr Iakovos Kourtesis +30 210 7720251 ikourtesis@nationalpk.nbg.gr
E-mail: info@nationalpk.nbg.gr Pantelis Petritsis +30 210 7720562 ppetritsis@nationalpk.nbg.gr Victor Labate +30 210 7720076 labate@nationalpk.nbg.gr
Kostas Ntounas +30 210 7720174 ntounas@nationalpk.nbg.gr
George Vitorakis +30 210 7720151 gvitorakis@nationalpk.nbg.gr

Finans Yatırım Menkul Degerler A.S.

Member of the Institutional Sales: Research:
Istanbul Stock Exchange Oguz Büktel +90 212 3367285 oguz.buktel@finansinvest.com Oguz Büktel +90 212 33672é85 oguz.buktel@finansinvest.com
Ceren Onar +90 212 3367118 ceren.karacak@finansinvest.com Mert Ulker, CFA +90 212 3367275 mert.ulker@finansinvest.com
Nispetiye Cad. Akmerkez B Kule Kat:2 Egemen Erden +90 212 3367102 egemen.erden@finansinvest.com Banu Kıvcı Tokalı +90 212 3367278 banu.kivcitokali@finansinvest.com
34330 Etiler – Istanbul Turkey Nezihi Abay +90 212 3367107 nezihi.abay@finansinvest.com Elif Basak Tore +90 212 3367280 elif.tore@finansinvest.com
Emre Balkeser +90 212 3367106 emre.balkeser@finansinvest.com Sadrettin Bagci +90 212 3367277 sadrettin.bagci@finansinvest.com
Tel: +90 212 282 1700 Mert Özener +90 212 3367112 mert.ozener@finansinvest.com
Fax: +90 212 282 2256 Müjde Erdoğan +90 212 3367101 mujde.erdogan@finansinvest.com Hakan Deprem +90 212 3367296 hakan.deprem@finansinvest.com
E-mail: research@finansinvest.com Merih Filiz +90 212 3367287 merih.filiz@finansinvest.com David Taranto +90 212 3367281 david.taranto@finansinvest.com
Kelly Dumankaya +90 212 3367122 kelly.dumankaya@finansinvest.com Yael Yahya +90 212 3367282 yael.yahya@finansinvest.com
Sezin Temelli +90 212 3367105 Sezin.Temelli@finansinvest.com Sezgi Biçe +90 212 3367293 sezgi.bice@finansinvest.com
Özlem Ataş +90 212 3367103 ozlem.atas@finansinvest.com
Sibil Pektorosoğlu +90 212 3364228 sibil.pektorosoglu@finansinvest.com

NBG International Ltd.

Old Change House , 128 Queen Victoria Str. Institutional Equity Sales:
EC4V 4HR, London, UK Maria Douli, CFA +30 210 7720023 Mdouli@nationalpk.nbg.gr
Andreas Kontogouris +30 210 7720141 andcont@nationalpk.nbg.gr
Tel: +44 20 7661 5656 Nikos Kyriazis +30 210 7720160 Nkyriazis@nationalpk.nbg.gr
Fax: +44 20 7661 5666 Maria Mitsouli +44 207 6615663 mmitsouli@nbgi.co.uk
E-mail: research@nbgiequities.com Panos Paraskevopoulos +44 207 6615646 pparaskevopoulos@nbgi.co.uk
Alan Shala +44 207 6615653 ashala@nbgi.co.uk
Trader: Lloyd Adams +44 207 6615691 ladams@nbgi.co.uk
Research: Alex Chan +44 207 6615687

NBGI Securities Inc.

641 Lexington Avenue, Suite 1401 Sales: Dimitri Kostopoulos +1 212 634 6349 dkostopoulos@nbgisec.com
New York, NY 10022, USA Kimon Roussos +1 212 634 6347 kroussos@nbgisec.com

Tel: +1 212 634 6345

Fax: +1 212 634 6350

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