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# 15
Book page
# 164
The identification of the key variables using a senstivity analysis with realistic
ranges for each variable, in the context of constructing a scenario.
Sensitivity Analysis
moving to:
Scenario Analysis
Sensitivity Analysis in workbooks 13 & 14 showed how to undertake breakeven analysis and the use of two variable data tables.
The investor may wish to see the results using a scenario analysis, looking at say: Optimistic; Pessimistic and Best Estimate outcomes.
For this Excel's Scenario Manager can be used:
2,000,000
135,000 (In Advance)
4.00%
70.00% (Interest Only)
6.25%
2,627,970
10.00%
Mar-06
###
135,000
IRR =
NPV =
###
14.07%
265,664
Mar-07
Best Estimate
Mar-08
Mar-09
135,000
135,000
135,000
135,000
135,000
135,000
Mar-10
2,627,970
2,627,970
Rental Growth and the Exit Valuation Yield have been identifed as key variables.
Go to: Tools: Scenarios and a Scenario has been set up,
with the output on the next worksheet.
Please note:
It is wise to name the cells being used
Set up a descriptor for the Scenario, otherwise your starting
point will be lost if you print out your various scenario
permutations.
Best Estimate
0.04
0.0625
Best Estimate
Page 3
Optimistic
0.05
0.0575
Optimistic
Page 4
Pessimistic
0.02
0.0675
Pessimistic
Page 5
Scenario Summary
Best Estimate
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Changing Cells:
Rental_Growth
4.00%
5.00%
2.00%
Exit_Yield
6.25%
5.75%
6.75%
Result Cells:
IRR
14.07%
17.55%
9.66%
NPV
265,664
517,366
-21,071
Notes: Current Values column represents values of changing cells at
time Scenario Summary Report was created. Changing cells for each
scenario are highlighted in gray.
Printing Comments
Adding a Comment
Editing a Comment
Deleting a Comment
Showing Comments
Using the Reviewing Icons
A. To Print Comments
1.
2.
3.
4.
N.B.
B.
3.
4.
5.
3.
4.
5.
Showing Comments
1.
2.
3.
4.
F.
Deleting a Comment
1.
2.
3.
4.
E.
Editing a Comment
1.
2.
D.
Print preview can be used before printing to scale the worksheet onto the paper.
To use: click Print Preview
Click Set up on the tool bar
Click Page, and scale the worksheet to the paper.
Adding a Comment
1.
2.
C.
Click on
Click on
Click on
Click on
a.
b.
c.
Authors' Disclaimer:
Disclaimer Clause
This workbook is intended for teaching purposes only.
The authors are providing this workbook on an as is basis and make no representations or
warranties of any kind with respect to its contents and disclaim all such representations and
warranties. In addition, the authors make no representations or warranties about the accuracy,
completeness, or suitability for any purpose of the information, or any statistical or mathematical
information provided including any formulae pertaining thereto.
The information contained in this workbook may contain technical inaccuracies or typographical
errors. All liability of the Authors howsoever arising for any such inaccuracies or errors is
expressly excluded to the fullest extent permitted by law.
The Authors will not be liable for loss or damage arising out of or in connection with the use of
this workbook. This is a comprehensive limitation of liability that applies to all damages of any
kind, including (without limitation) compensatory, direct, indirect or consequential damages, loss
of data, income or profit, loss of or damage to property and claims of third parties."