Você está na página 1de 6

285633646.

xls

CTG www.ctguk.com

Summary

Free cash flow to firm DCF valuation model


Base data
Ticker
SIC code
Current market price
Current year end
Valuation date
Stub period proportion
Number of Shares (m)
Marginal tax rate
Net debt
Equity investments
Exit EV / EBITDA multiple
Explicit Years
Discounting convention

WACC assumptions
Market based:
Risk free rate
Unlevered comp beta
US EMRP
Firm specific:
Target Debt / Equity
Credit risk premium
Levered beta
Cost of equity
Cost of debt (pre-tax)
Cost of debt (post tax)
Weighting of debt
Weighting of equity
WACC

Implied valuation
PV of terminal value
PV of unlevered free cash flows
12.84

Implied EV

30 Sep 09
15 Jul 09
20.8%
733.30
35.00%
1,433
303
8.0x
10.00
End of year

2.82%
1.29
4.50%

Less: net debt


Add: Investments accounted under the equity method
Implied equity value
Number of Shares
Implied equity value per share
Analysis
Implied EV / EBITDA

Median

25.00%
5.00%
1.49
9.55%
7.82%
5.08%
20.00%
80.00%
8.65%

2009
2010
2011

Implied terminal value


Implied terminal EBITDA
Implied terminal cash flow
Exit EBITDA multiple
Implied growth rate in exit multiple
Current equity value per share
Premium / discount
Comparable beta information
Market Total debt
Cap
CompCo A
16,000
2,000
CompCo B
6,600
1,300
CompCo C
2,400
200
CompCo D
1,900
500
CompCo E
1,200
500
Mean
Median
High
Low

Debt /
Capital
11.1%
16.5%
7.7%
20.8%
29.4%
17.1%
16.5%
29.4%
7.7%

9,935
5,191

65.7%
34.3%

15,126

100.0%

(1,433)
303
13,996
733
19.09

10.4x
9.3x
8.5x
23,178
2,897
1,396
8.0x
2.48%
12.84
48.6%

Debt /
Equity
12.5%
19.7%
8.3%
26.3%
41.7%
21.7%
19.7%
41.7%
8.3%

Levered
beta
1.39
1.34
1.14
1.85
1.97
1.54
1.39
1.97
1.14

Tax Unlevered
rate
beta
35.0%
1.29
35.0%
1.19
35.0%
1.08
35.0%
1.58
35.0%
1.55
35.0%
1.34
35.0%
1.29
35.0%
1.58
35.0%
1.08

Current and Future Value Drivers


Periods for Transiition Factor

09/13/2015, 11:15:46

10
Current
Long-term Transition

1 of 6

285633646.xls

Sales Growth
COGS as Pct of Sales
SG&A as Pct of Sales
Tax Rate on EBIT
Cap Exp as Pct of Sales
Cap Exp to Depreciation
Cap Exp to Depreciation
Cash flow forecast assumptions
Period
Stub Period
Explicit Period
Terminal Period
Sales growth rates
COGS as % of sales
SG&A as % of sales
Tax rates on EBIT
Decr (incr) in NWC as incr in sales
Capex as % of sales
Capex / Depn multiples

09/13/2015, 11:15:46

CTG www.ctguk.com

11.0%
83.0%
4.4%
33.0%
7.0%
8.5%
1.80

2.50%
80.00%
5.00%
35.00%
6.00%
4.00%
1.05

Summary

0.8623
0.9963
1.0129
1.0059
0.9847
0.9274
0.9475

-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
30 Sep 06 30 Sep 07 30 Sep 08 30 Sep 09 30 Sep 10 30 Sep 11 30 Sep 12 30 Sep 13 30 Sep 14 30 Sep 15 30 Sep 16 30 Sep 17 30 Sep 18 30 Sep 19
nm
nm
nm 31 Dec 99
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm 31 Dec 99 31 Dec 99 31 Dec 99 31 Dec 99 31 Dec 99 31 Dec 99 31 Dec 99 31 Dec 99 31 Dec 99
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm 31 Dec 99

78.60%
6.16%
34.25%
9.90%
1.99x

20.86%
79.79%
5.20%
36.16%
9.81%
11.48%
2.31x

10.32%
83.99%
4.39%
39.41%
7.77%
9.48%
1.79x

11.00%
83.00%
4.40%
33.00%
7.00%
8.50%
1.80

9.49%
82.70%
4.46%
33.19%
6.89%
7.88%
1.71

8.18%
82.39%
4.51%
33.39%
6.79%
7.31%
1.62

7.05%
82.09%
4.57%
33.59%
6.68%
6.78%
1.53

6.08%
81.79%
4.63%
33.79%
6.58%
6.29%
1.45

5.24%
81.49%
4.69%
33.99%
6.48%
5.83%
1.37

4.52%
81.19%
4.75%
34.19%
6.38%
5.41%
1.30

3.90%
80.89%
4.81%
34.39%
6.28%
5.01%
1.23

3.36%
80.59%
4.87%
34.59%
6.19%
4.65%
1.17

2.90%
80.30%
4.94%
34.79%
6.09%
4.31%
1.11

2.50%
80.00%
5.00%
35.00%
6.00%
4.00%
1.05

2 of 6

285633646.xls

CTG www.ctguk.com

Discounted cash flow


Sales
7,787
COGS
(6,120)
SG&A
(479)
Restructuring charges
-EBITDA
1,187
DA
(387)
EBIT
800
Unlevered cash taxes on EBIT
(274)
EBIT (1-Tc)
526
DA
387
Decrease (increase) in NWC
222
Net capex
(771)
Unlevered free cash flow
364
Fraction of First Year
Stub period unlevered free cash flow
Exit Period EV/EBITDA
Terminal value
Explicit Period Cash Flow
Unlevered free cash flow to discount
Discounting convention
End of year
Mid year
End of Year
Applied
Discount factor

9,412
(7,509)
(489)
-1,413
(467)
946
(342)
604
467
159
(1,080)
150

10,383
(8,721)
(456)
-1,207
(549)
657
(259)
398
549
76
(985)
39

Present value of unlevered free cash flow

Ratios
EBITDA margin
EBIT margin
EBIT (1-Tc) margin
EBITDA growth
EBIT growth
EBIT (1-Tc) growth
Unlevered free cash flow growth

Summary

11,525
(9,566)
(507)
-1,452
(544)
908
(300)
608
544
80
(980)
253
21%
53
---53

12,618
(10,435)
(562)
-1,621
(583)
1,038
(345)
693
583
75
(995)
357
0%
----357

13,650
(11,247)
(616)
-1,788
(617)
1,170
(391)
779
617
70
(998)
469
0%
---469
469

14,613
(11,996)
(668)
-1,949
(647)
1,302
(437)
865
647
64
(991)
586
0%
---586
586

15,502
(12,678)
(718)
-2,106
(672)
1,434
(484)
949
672
58
(975)
705
0%
---705
705

16,315
(13,294)
(765)
-2,255
(692)
1,563
(531)
1,032
692
53
(951)
825
0%
---825
825

17,052
(13,844)
(810)
-2,398
(708)
1,690
(578)
1,112
708
47
(922)
945
0%
---945
945

17,717
(14,331)
(853)
-2,534
(720)
1,814
(624)
1,190
720
42
(889)
1,063
0%
---1,063
1,063

18,313
(14,759)
(893)
-2,662
(728)
1,934
(669)
1,265
728
37
(852)
1,178
0%
---1,178
1,178

18,844
(15,131)
(930)
-2,783
(733)
2,050
(713)
1,336
733
32
(813)
1,289
0%
---1,289
1,289

19,315
(15,452)
(966)
-2,897
(736)
2,161
(757)
1,405
736
28
(773)
1,396
0%
-8.00
23,178
1,396
24,575

0.21
0.10
1
0.21
0.98

1.21
0.71
1
1.21
0.90

2.21
1.71
1
2.21
0.83

3.21
2.71
1
3.21
0.77

4.21
3.71
1
4.21
0.71

5.21
4.71
1
5.21
0.65

6.21
5.71
1
6.21
0.60

7.21
6.71
1
7.21
0.55

8.21
7.71
1
8.21
0.51

9.21
8.71
1
9.21
0.47

10.21
9.71
1
10.21
0.43

52

323

390

449

497

536

565

585

596

601

10,534

30-Sep-06 30-Sep-07 30-Sep-08 30-Sep-09 30-Sep-10 30-Sep-11 30-Sep-12 30-Sep-13 30-Sep-14 30-Sep-15 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-17 30-Sep-18 30-Sep-19
15.25%
15.01%
11.62%
12.60%
12.85%
13.09%
13.34%
13.58%
13.82%
14.06%
14.30%
14.54%
14.77%
15.00%
10.27%
10.05%
6.33%
7.88%
8.23%
8.57%
8.91%
9.25%
9.58%
9.91%
10.24%
10.56%
10.88%
11.19%
6.75%
6.42%
3.84%
5.28%
5.50%
5.71%
5.92%
6.12%
6.33%
6.52%
6.72%
6.91%
7.09%
7.27%
19.03%
(14.62%)
20.36%
11.64%
10.25%
9.05%
8.01%
7.11%
6.33%
5.65%
5.06%
4.55%
4.11%
18.24%
(30.52%)
38.15%
14.33%
12.71%
11.31%
10.09%
9.03%
8.11%
7.31%
6.61%
6.00%
5.46%
14.81%
(34.06%)
52.76%
14.00%
12.38%
10.98%
9.76%
8.71%
7.78%
6.98%
6.28%
5.67%
5.13%
(58.76%) (74.35%) 556.79%
41.32%
31.24%
24.85%
20.39%
17.08%
14.52%
12.48%
10.82%
9.45%
8.30%

Sensitivity analysis
Inputs
Model

09/13/2015, 11:15:46

Table

Steps

3 of 6

285633646.xls

WACC
Exit EV / EBITDA

CTG www.ctguk.com

input
8.65%
8.00x

input
8.65%
7.50x

Implied EV
Exit EV / EBITDA
15,126
8.15%
7.00x
14,453
7.25x
14,778
7.50x
15,104
7.75x
15,429
8.00x
15,755

0.25%
0.25x

8.40%
14,165
14,483
14,801
15,119
15,437

Implied EV / EBITDA (2009)


Exit EV / EBITDA
10.42x
8.15%
8.40%
7.00x
9.95x
9.75x
7.25x
10.18x
9.97x
7.50x
10.40x
10.19x
7.75x
10.63x
10.41x
8.00x
10.85x
10.63x

09/13/2015, 11:15:46

Summary

8.65%
13,884
14,195
14,505
14,816
15,126

8.65%
9.56x
9.78x
9.99x
10.20x
10.42x

8.90%
13,610
13,914
14,217
14,520
14,823

WACC
9.15%
13,343
13,639
13,935
14,231
14,528

Implied equity value


Exit EV / EBITDA
13,996
8.15%
7.00x
13,323
7.25x
13,648
7.50x
13,974
7.75x
14,299
8.00x
14,624

8.40%
13,035
13,353
13,671
13,989
14,306

8.65%
12,754
13,065
13,375
13,686
13,996

8.90%
12,480
12,783
13,087
13,390
13,693

WACC
9.15%
12,212
12,509
12,805
13,101
13,397

8.90%
9.37x
9.58x
9.79x
10.00x
10.21x

WACC
9.15%
9.19x
9.39x
9.60x
9.80x
10.00x

Implied EV / EBITDA (2010)


Exit EV / EBITDA
9.33x
8.15%
8.40%
7.00x
8.91x
8.74x
7.25x
9.12x
8.93x
7.50x
9.32x
9.13x
7.75x
9.52x
9.33x
8.00x
9.72x
9.52x

8.65%
8.56x
8.76x
8.95x
9.14x
9.33x

8.90%
8.39x
8.58x
8.77x
8.96x
9.14x

WACC
9.15%
8.23x
8.41x
8.60x
8.78x
8.96x

4 of 6

Typically, CTG add further functionality in


* Flexible operating scenaria such as base
* Diluted equity value taking into considera
share options
* More complex capital structures - pensio
* Different ways of calculating the termina
additional multiples or reinvestment rates
* Graph driven assumptions
* Time variant WACC calculations
* International WACC issues and country
* Time flexible sensitivity analysis
* 5 year vs. 10 year DCF
* Further beta deleveraging options
* Our models can be integrated into FACT

y, CTG add further functionality in the form of:


e operating scenaria such as base, upside and downside
d equity value taking into consideration the buy out cost of ITM
ptions
omplex capital structures - pensions, minorities, prefs, etc
nt ways of calculating the terminal value - growth perpetuity,
al multiples or reinvestment rates
driven assumptions
ariant WACC calculations
ational WACC issues and country risk premiums
exible sensitivity analysis
vs. 10 year DCF
r beta deleveraging options
odels can be integrated into FACTSET's =FDS coding and CapIQ