Black Lives Matter, Black votes do too

Terrance Woodbury, brilliant corners Research and Strategy

September 18, 2015
With race relations and challenges facing minority communities undoubtedly influencing the race for the
2016 White House, many political observers are attempting to predict the voting behavior of Obama
surge voters young and minority voters who drastically changed the demographics of the traditional
Democratic coalition by turning out in historic numbers and propelling Barack Obama to victory in 2008
and 2012. While it is undeniable how essential these voters have become to any Democratic path to
victory, it is still very unclear to what extent they will participate in the first Post-Obama presidential
election cycle. One thing is very clear, amongst young African Americans, the lions share of Obama
surge voters, fighting racism is the single most important issue. Not jobs. Not healthcare. Not climate
change. For young minorities, fighting racism will be top of mind during this election cycle1.

African Americans (Age 18-49)

All Minorities

40%

20%

0%

That means the increasing influence of the Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement could reverberate
during the course of the 2016 election cycle far beyond interrupting a few political rallies. Representing
previously marginalized voices, the BLM movement is bringing attention to issues of racial injustice,
police brutality, gross economic inequality, and lack of opportunity for African Americans. Rejecting the
idea that all boats rise with a rising tide, the BLM movement is demanding candidates and political
1

Nationwide survey conducted July 4-8, 2015 of 1,518 African Americans. The margin of error for this poll is +/3.0 percent.

parties specifically address the boats in the black community that have been anchored down by
generational poverty and oppression. They are not accepting empty promises and are prepared to
assertively challenge what they consider inadequate responses.
When necessary, the BLM movement is even prepared to shut down an entire political program, seize
the attention of the media that is present, and even reduce presidential candidates to mere spectators
at their own events. Leaders of the BLM movement have even practiced similar tactics toward leaders of
the African American community once capturing a stage while Rev. Al Sharpton spoke at an Action
Network march against police brutality. It was previously believed that these tactics, often perceived as
hostile and inflammatory, were not embraced by other members of the African American community. A
recent national survey conducted by brilliant corners Research & Strategies shows quite the contrary.
Seventy-four percent of African American parents support the BLM movement and 59 percent even
favor the tactics that have been widely criticized by other progressives and the media2.

Favor the Tactics of BLM

Approve of BLM
Total Approve

7%

Total Disapprove

Dk/Ref

Total favor

Total oppose

Dk/Ref

22%

20%
73%

19%

59%

This means courting Obama surge voters will require Democrats to carefully and deliberately address
very difficult cultural and socio-economic concerns that are being elevated by the BLM movement.
Equally as important will be how African American parents and other tacit BLM supporters perceive the
Democrats public response to the active participants of the movementare they defensively dismissed
from stages or compassionately invited into the policy making process?
The Black Lives Matter movement has become a formidable force to be reckoned with in the 2016
election cycle. They have reminded Democrats, and the African American community, that no political
party is entitled to the black vote. The BLM movement has given young people another outlet for
political engagement and until compelled to support a particular candidate, issue, or party, could serve
as an alternative to electoral participation. Finally, they have managed to attract many supporters, even
if not active participants, toward their cause and objectives. Not since the Tea Party could an insurgency

Nationwide survey conducted August 12th -17th, 2015 of 600 African Americans Parents of K-12 students who
either attend public schools, public charter schools or private or parochial schools using state tuition vouchers. The
margin of error for this poll is +/- 4.0 percent.

have such a resounding effect on the electorate, and we are likely just seeing the tip of what could be a
Titanic-sinking iceberg.
Deliberate action must be taken to better understand the concerns represented by the Black Lives
Matter movement or they might disengage the political process, or worse, incite mass disengagement of
demographic groups that will be critical in the 2016 election cycle.