Technological Forecasting & Social Change 78 (2011) 11301146

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Technological Forecasting & Social Change

Technological evolution and interdependence in China's emerging

biofuel industry
Mei-Chih Hu a,, Fred Phillips b,1
a
b

National Tsinghua University, Hsinchu 300, Taiwan

Alliant International University, San Diego, CA 92131-1799, United States

a r t i c l e

i n f o

Article history:
Received 23 April 2010
Received in revised form 1 February 2011
Accepted 9 February 2011
Available online 1 April 2011
Keywords:
Biofuels
Renewable energy
Patents
China
Technological interdependence
Technological evolution

a b s t r a c t
This study uses the European Patent Office worldwide patent database and applies two-stage
interactive data collection methods to reveal the evolving technological interdependence for
China's emerging biofuel industry. Three findings are excerpted from our empirical results.
First, due to dominant patterns of business ownership, China's biofuel technology is seen as
largely based on the evolutionary strength of the foodstuff and chemical fields. Second, China's
biofuel technology development has evolved in the mode of forward engineering, led by
Chinese universities rather than initiated by the public research institutes as in the experience
of other East Asian latecomers. Third, our patent map and technology trajectory analyses
illustrate that China's biofuel technology tends to be application-oriented and highly
intertwined with the pharmaceutical industry since the 2000s, which evidences the
development of biofuel industry as reciprocally reinforcing China's innovation capability
deriving from its prominent chemical sector. By examining endogenous technology capability
embedded in the national innovation capacity, this study uncovers public implications for other
technology latecomers attempting to build an emerging industry while facing technology
uncertainty in a transitional society.
2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
Technological innovations can play an important role in system innovations, in which the user context, markets or system
environment will be largely transformed [14]. In the paradigm of technological innovations, the individual effect of incremental
technical change may be only minor, but the cumulative capacity is essential to construct the institutional contexts and innovation
infrastructure for developing a nation's innovation system as a whole [5,6]. For example, technological developments in the
chemical industry have been cumulative innovation driven. The synthetic organics industry based on coal tar revolutionized
dyestuffs, eventually paving the road to plastics, synthetic bers, biopharmaceuticals, and biofuels. This argument is especially
critical for technology catching-up latecomer countries (e.g. China, Taiwan and Korea) who are accustomed to specializing in
demand-pull innovations (e.g. incremental innovations) aimed at the middle or the bottom of the income pyramid.
With the hope to leapfrog into innovator status and gain international technological supremacy, these latecomers are starting
to pursue technology-push innovations (e.g. disruptive innovations), especially in emerging industries such as renewable energy
or biotechnology [7,8]. According to the United States Patent and Trademark Ofce (USPTO), Huawei, the Chinese No. 1 telecoms
giant, has become the world's fourth-largest patent applicant in 2008, while Korean Samsung enjoys the No. 1 patenting growth
rate since 2002. These raise profound questions about how the technology innovations have evolved and become interdependent
with the building of national innovation systems in emerging countries such as in China and Korea.
Corresponding author at: Institute of Technology Management, National Tsinghua University, Hsinchu 300, Taiwan. Tel.: +886 3 5162162; fax: +886 3 5623770.
E-mail addresses: mchu@mx.nthu.edu.tw (M.-C. Hu), fphillips2@alliant.edu (F. Phillips).
1
Tel.: +1 858 635 4886; fax: +1 858 635 4528.
0040-1625/$ see front matter 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2011.02.013

M.-C. Hu, F. Phillips / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 78 (2011) 11301146

1131

Technological knowledge serves as a shareable input that is used in research on various technologies and innovations of either
sort [916]. For example, the current success of biofuel manufacturing is restricted on the one hand by limits on the availability of
primary raw materials, and on the other hand by the maturity of fermentation and bio-renery technologies. All the knowledge
creation processes of biofuel technologies heavily depend on the utilization of related technologies in other elds through
knowledge generation, diffusion, combination and extraction. In other words, all these will interplay in synergy to shift the
economic balance in favor of global implementation of biofuels, including the growing awareness of total-system costs, and our
ability to compute the total energy and water budgets of producing, transporting, and using biofuels.
China is the third largest bioethanol producer in the world and No. 1 in Asia since 2006 while Asia has become the largest oil
consuming region [17]. Up to 2008, 61% of rural household energy in China comes from traditional use of biomass such as livestock
manure or rewood direct burning [17]. China's push into renewable energy has been driven by its need to diversify its energy
sources in order to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels for sustainable economic growth. China is a technology latecomer aiming at
reducing its carbon emission in accordance with the 10th ve-year plan in 2004. China's biofuel industry has not only become one
of the nation's priorities to sustain the energy sources but also acted as a practice to demonstrate its innovation capability in this
emerging eld. However, relatively little is known about the underlying compositions of the biofuel technology and its
interdependence with other applications, despite that it is widely recognized that the industrial boundary is blurred because of the
diverse downstream applications in agriculture, petro-chemical and rening, chemical engineering, and biotechnology [1820]. In
all the renewable energy industries, both technology-push and demand-pull innovations rely heavily upon the development of
technology relatedness to reduce the technology barriers as well as the market cost.
To focus on the trajectory of technological development in a latecomer's (China's) emerging biofuel industry, this paper
explores two questions: (1) How have biofuel related technologies evolved in China and how do they interact with other
technology elds? (2) Does the degree of technological interdependence in the biofuel industry reciprocally reinforce China's
innovation capability in related elds?
This paper rst discusses, in Section 2, the theoretical background regarding the importance of exploring technology trajectory
in the biofuel industry. Section 3 addresses the development of China's biofuel industry. Section 4 explains the method of
technological interdependence and evolution. Section 5 provides a reection on the results, followed by a discussion and
conclusion in Section 6, in which policy and managerial implications are set forth.
2. Theoretical background
Current knowledge and technology serve as input and fundament for future research projects and thereby determine their
developmental trajectory and cost structure [2125]. Inputs like R&D manpower, equipment and codied knowledge can be
devoted to several technological elds but at varying costs. The widespread technology relatedness may generate economies of
scope in research, so that future research in related elds will be less costly when the corresponding knowledge and equipment
base reinforces learning and efciency [26,27]. In this respect, a nation's current technology capability is linked to the capacity of
its prominent technologies that will be used to increase chances of success for the related emerging elds.
Innovation capability (in terms of patenting activity) is subject to evolutionary path dependence and can be measured by (1)
technology value and (2) current economic value.2 Many studies have demonstrated the overestimated value of patents in both
OECD countries and latecomer countries, whereas other factors like secrecy, time to market and complementary commercial
assets are more important than the consequences of patenting behavior [2830]. Hall and Ziedonis [31] further argue that the
economic gains in the US semiconductor industry are mostly derived from the management of patenting rather than the
knowledge inherent in the patents.
Previous studies overwhelmingly emphasize the exploration of current economic/market value for patenting activity but not
much literature discusses the potential variation of technology value in the patenting activity. For most cases in technology
followers such as China and India, technology value is either ignored or underestimated (e.g. see Refs. [32,33]), assuming a lower
patent quality or science linkage (e.g. India's pharmaceutical industry or China's electronics industry). Even though the
development process of new products such as biofuels has been characterized as one of technological uncertainty, the evolution of
a technology development trajectory can be utilized as a map for strategic planning and technological development [34]. Under
technological and market uncertainties, this technological evolution is particularly useful for the technology follower to reinforce
its latecomer advantages in the emerging industry [24,25]. Given the important inuence of technological change on market
performance, the integration and decomposition processes of the supply chain are leading to signicant product improvements in
cost, quality, and cycle time [3537]. This suggestion has been demonstrated in many studies for developing countries and
technology latecomers. For example, Hu [24] and Curtis et al. [25] demonstrate that the innovation activity (measured by patents)
of Taiwan's at panel displays (FPDs) heavily depended on the accumulated technology capacity in that country's chemicals sector
and correlates well with the downstream market performance (measured by market share) in each rm.
Climate change spurs well-funded research for renewable energy, but it remains a small share of total energy use in China and
worldwide. Most renewable sources did not experience a rapid growth until 2007, while coal has been the fastest growing major
fuel from 2003 to 2007 [17]. North America used to be the largest oil consuming region, with 84% of total demand attributed to the
US during the last decades (Please see Appendix A for details.) This dominance had not changed until 2006 when Asia surpassed

We use the technology value to mean future ows of economic value stemming from the diffusion or commercialization of the current technology.

1132

M.-C. Hu, F. Phillips / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 78 (2011) 11301146

North America and become the world's largest oil consumer. This is mostly attributed to the rapid economic development of
emerging countries in the area, especially China and India. More than 30% of Asian oil consumption is absorbed by China since the
2000s.
Energy security has been one of the major concerns in a series of China's ve-year sustainable economic plans since 1999 [38].
The development of renewable energy technology is certainly the priority if China is to achieve its goal to become the largest
renewable energy market as well as an innovator. (No country dominates the industry yet [39].) As a technology latecomer aiming
at utilizing the emerging technologies as in other renewable energy elds such as wind turbines, hydropower, and solar
photovoltaic, the innovation capability in China's biofuel industry may still have to be built on the accumulated capacity, and
depend on technology evolution as in the chemical eld [40,41]. Understanding the cumulative causation is particularly helpful in
the formation stage for an emerging industry such as biofuels [42].
Aiming at reducing its energy dependence on fossil fuel as well as its carbon emissions, China is the third largest bioethanol
producer in the world and number one in Asia, as shown in Table 1. The success of biofuel manufacturing is restricted by limits on
availability of primary raw materials, by the maturity of fermentation and bio-renery technologies, and by new knowledge about
the limitations of food crop-based biofuels and the overall energy budget of biofuels. We consider two of the critical barriers for the
development of biofuel industry: (1) the feedstock availability from supply side and (2) conversion process from technology side,
in what follows.
2.1. Supply side: feedstock
According to the survey by the International Energy Agency [43], two feedstocks are currently considered as the best sources
for the second generation biofuel which is non-food competitive, with higher efcient emission reduction than the rst
generation. The rst feedstock source is land-based with abundant lignin and lignocellulose plants, including jatropha curcas,
alfalfa, switchgrass, miscanthus, reed canary grass and giant reed. The second feedstock source is 5070% carbon dioxide contained
sea-based algal, in which the manufacturing technology is derived from the rst generation's fermentation (macro-algal) and
transesterication (micro-algal). Various species of algae have been chosen to test the transformation efciency. For example,
Japan and Taiwan have taken gracilaria and sargassum as targets, for both are rich in polysaccharides that can be transformed to
ethanol.
Kim and Dale [44] estimated that the global potential lignocellulose biomass (from waste and crop residues) can produce up to
442 billion liters of ethanol per year. Amongst which, lignocellulosic crop residues are currently gathered from rice straw (with
204.6 billion liter capacity), wheat straw (103.8 billion liters), corn stover (58.6 billion liters), and bagasse (51.3 billion liters)
while Asia is a large potential crop residue ethanol producer, as shown in Fig. 1. If the above mentioned hurdles can be overcome,
Asia is expected to provide 60% of global crop residue ethanol capacity (261 billion liters), mostly extracted from its abundant rice
straw (91%), followed by wheat straw (41%). It is also clear that the EU is heavily reliant on wheat straw for bioethanol production,
producing 37% of global volume, while North America produces 66% of global corn stover and South America produces 46% of
global bagasse residue.
2.2. Technology side: conversion processes
It is increasingly understood that the rst generation biofuels produced primarily from food crops are limited in their ability to
achieve targets for oil-product substitution, climate change mitigation and economic growth. Their sustainable production is
under review, as is the possibility of creating undue competition for land and water used for food and ber production. A possible
exception that appears to meet many of the acceptable criteria is ethanol produced from sugar cane.
The cumulative impacts of these concerns have increased the interest in developing biofuels produced from non-food biomass.
These second generation biofuels could avoid many of the concerns facing the rst generation biofuels and potentially offer
Table 1
Global Ethanol Fuel Production, by region and country, 19972007. Unit: Ethanol Production (thousand tons).
Source: Canadian Renewable Fuels Association; European Bioethanol Fuel Association; [17].
1997
North America
US
Canada
South America
Brazil
EU
Germany
Spain
France
Asia
China
India
World Total

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2374

2572

2714

2996

3251

3957

5173

7737
7737

7053
7052

6487
6483

5349
5343
120

5729
5726
136

6291
6286
241

7243
7226
223

50
57

50
57

57
111

8465

9116

10,490

52
101
154
38
90
12,793

10,111

9625

9200

2004

2005

2006

2007

6362
6247
115
7334
7314
264
12
127
50
230
144
75
14,190

7335
7208
127
8082
8010
472
82
151
72
673
580
50
16,562

9312
9017
295
9028
8871
824
215
198
146
1164
985
60
20,328

12,381
11,957
424
11,431
11,264
886
197
174
289
1275
1043
70
25,972

M.-C. Hu, F. Phillips / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 78 (2011) 11301146

1133

300

250

41%
41%

Billion liters

200

150
91%

100

50
37%

Africa
Corn stover

Asia

EU

Rice straw

Wheat straw

66%

46%

North America Central & South

America
Bagasse

Oceania

Others

Fig. 1. Global potential bioethanol production from lignocellosic biomass, by region. Note: Others include barley straw, oat straw and sorghum straw etc.
Source: [40].

greater cost reduction potential in the longer term. The production of biofuels from ligno-cellulosic feedstocks can be achieved
through two very different processing routes, biochemical and thermo-chemical approaches which are currently at the
demonstration phase, as shown in Table 2.
Nevertheless, these are not the only 2nd generation biofuel pathways. Several variations and alternatives are under evaluation
in research laboratories and pilot-plants, including dimethyl ether, methanol or synthetic natural gas. However, these alternatives,
at this stage, do not represent the main thrust of Chinese R&D and production investment.
In order for cellulose to be used in biofuel, the cellulose in plants must be broken down into fermentable sugars. The current
way to pre-treat cellulose is with acid. However, the resulting material must be washed and detoxied. Washing, detoxifying and
adding nutrients back into the pretreated cellulose are three separate steps while each step is expensive and adds to the cost of the
biofuel. Thus, the cost effectiveness of breaking down cellulose into fermentable sugars has been a major issue slowing cellulosic
ethanol production [45]. To clarify how a technology latecomer country such as China overcomes the above-mentioned barriers
and creates its technology trajectory in the development of biofuel industry, we examine the development of China's biofuel
industry.

Table 2
The 1st and 2nd generation biofuels.
Source: Ref. [39].
Feedstock

Main technology

The rst
Rapeseed, soybeans, sunowers, jatropha, Physiochemical biofuels
generation coconut, palm, and waste cooling oil
Corn, wheat, potato, sugar beets, and
Biochemical biofuels
sugarcane
Enzymatic fermentation
Anaerobic fermentation
The second
Lignocellulose (crop residues, grasses,
Distillation
generation and woody crops), waste
Photosynthesis/digestion
Thermochemical biofuels

Macro-algal
Micro-algal

GasicationPyrolysis
HTU (hydrothermal upgrading)
HDO (catalytical hydro-de-oxygenation)
Alkylation (NExBTL diesel)
Biochemical
Physiochemical

Manufacturing
process

Product

Transesterication

Biodiesel

Enzymatic
synthesis
Fermentation
Enzymatic
hydrolysis
Gasication-based
conversion
HTU, pyrolysis,
HDO
Fermentation
Transesterication

Bioethanol
Cellulosic ethanol or butanol,
bio-H2
F-T fuel, methanol, MTBE,
gasoline, DME, mixed alcohols,
and bio-H2
Bio-diesel
Ethanol or butanol
Biodiesel

Biochemical in which enzymes and other micro-organisms are used to convert cellulose and hemicellulose components of the feedstocks to sugars prior to
their fermentation to produce ethanol.
Thermo-chemical where pyrolysis/gasication technologies produce a synthetic gas (CO + H2) from which a wide range of long carbon chain biofuels, such
as synthetic diesel or aviation fuel, can be rened.

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M.-C. Hu, F. Phillips / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 78 (2011) 11301146

3. China's biofuels industry

In line with the national plan, the emerging renewable energy sectors in China are growing rapidly. There have been
coordinated efforts by Chinese companies, industry associations, central and local government agencies and non-governmental
organizations to develop various renewable energy sectors [46]. In the case of biofuels, the supply of non-food raw materials as
well as the technology development of the second generation has been the main concerns in China's public policy.
Corn has been used to make about 90% of all US bioethanol, although its share is declining due to the increasing food price. (For
example, in 2006 alone, the price of corn is increased by 23%, according to the study of Liu [46].) Corn is also the main feedstock for
bioethanol production in China, and is ranked second (next to rice) in grain crops production in China. Considering food security, the
development of fermentation technology from non-food lignocellulosic materials such as agricultural residues, wood, and energy
crops have become one of major priorities in China's renewable energy development plans since the 10th ve-year plan in 2005.
In 2005, the National People's Congress passed legislation to offer subsidies for renewable energy (around twice the amount as
for coal). An immediate effect was shown when bioethanol production increased to 1.55 million tons in 2007, produced by the four
major state supported companies (i.e. Jilin Fuel Alcohol, Heilongjiang Huarun Alcohol, Henan Tianguan Enterprise, and Anhui
Fengyuan Group), and bioethanol-blended petrol accounted for 20% of the total petrol consumption in China [47]. The four major
state-supported companies along with the strong government supports in promoting and inuencing the development of China's
biofuel sector will be detailed in a later section's discussion.
To examine our research questions how China's biofuel related technologies and technological interdependencies evolved
we use the methodology described below.
4. Methodology
There are feasible alternative methodologies for collecting and measuring technological trajectory, interdependence, and
knowledge ows. One such would be to analyze the product mixes by reverse engineering. However, such a method does not
reveal the evolving technological interdependence and may generate subjective perceptions. Patent data analysis is widely
recognized as a reliable and objective indicator to understand the origin, formation process, and evolving impact of a technology
[23,48,49]. We utilize the worldwide patent database of the European Patent Ofce (EPO) because this database covers a nation's
domestic and international patenting activities (where 128 countries' Intellectual Property Ofces have joined as members of the
EPO). Given that the commercialization of biofuel technology is not mature yet, only critical patents will be led internationally, so
it is useful to examine the international patent families through the EPO worldwide [50,51].
4.1. Data collection
This study uses two-stage interactive data collection methods utilizing biofuel related keywords and International Patent
Classications (IPCs) in order to identify the biofuel patents as precisely as possible. The rst stage is the data collection, in which
the biofuel related patent key words and IPCs are collected from one of the most comprehensive biofuel information platforms,
Biofuels, Bioproducts, and Biorening (Biofpr, http://www.biofpr.com). The Biofpr platform aims to provide the most updated
biofuels information, and keywords are updated from time to time due to changing technologies. Our data collection from the
Biofpr platform thus records these changes, and lasts for one and half years, from July 2007 to December 2008, until these changes
of the biofuel related keywords have converged and remained. Ultimately, we identied 90 biofuel related keywords along with 95
biofuel related IPCs (4-digit) over the period. (Please see the Appendices B-1 and B-2 for the details.) Given that biofuel technology
developments are highly interdisciplinary, the second stage is to perform cross check between the 90 biofuel related keywords and
95 IPCs in order to extract the most relevant biofuel patents as much as possible. In the end, 9246 biofuel related patents, whose
assignee country is China, were extracted from the European Patent Ofce (EPO) database.
4.2. Measures
4.2.1. Technological trajectory (patent family analysis)
Harhoff et al. [51] suggest that patents representing large international patent families are particularly valuable. We thus use the
EPO worldwide database to produce a patent family analysis (shown in Table 4) along with measuring indicators. This generates
technology maps for the critical patents, illustrating the trajectory of technological development in China's biofuel industry.
4.2.2. Technological interdependence
To clarify the relationship of technological interdependence between and amongst different technological elds, this study
adopts a specic measure of technological overlap, developed by Fung and Chow [52] to measure the degree of interdependence
(DOI) between industries (also see Hu and Tseng [16]). The formulation is dened as follows:

DOIk;j;t =

TOk;j;t
PTj;t

M.-C. Hu, F. Phillips / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 78 (2011) 11301146

1135

1800
1600

Number of patents

1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200

20
08

20
06

20
04

20
02

20
00

19
98

19
96

19
94

19
92

19
90

19
88

19
86

Fig. 2. China's biofuel patents, by year.

Source: EPO and complied by the authors.

where DOIk,j,t denotes the degree of technological overlap between two industries. It is the number of patents simultaneously
granted to industries k and j at time t; while PTj,t is the number of patents granted to industry j at time t.
4.2.3. Technological knowledge ows
To capture and reect faithfully the evolving pattern of development for China's biofuel innovative capability over the past
decades, the empirical results derived from the rst stage are then cross veried by analysis of backward and forward patent
citations in the USPTO to examine its knowledge ows (please see the works of the NBER scholars [31] and [48] for detailed
discussions on knowledge ows). The dataset is divided into ve sectors: (1) universities; (2) public research institutes; (3) stateowned enterprises; (4) private sector; and (5) individuals. Backward citation rate refers a count of the citations made reference by
a sector's patents to prior patents. This helps to trace the source of innovation/knowledge as well as the developmental trajectory
of innovation capability in the sectors [24]. On the other hand, forward citation rate represents a count of the citations received by
a sector's patents from subsequent patents. This helps to evaluate the technological impact of patents [40]. High citation counts are
often associated with important inventions, ones that are fundamental to future inventions and may have more competitive
advantages in that technological eld.
5. Empirical results
5.1. Descriptive statistics
As shown in Fig. 2, the patenting activity of China's biofuel development corresponds to the trend of global development of
renewable energy as a whole, which in the 2000s showed a critical commercialization threshold as the market demand was greatly
reinforced by public policy and government subsides. However, the rst generation biofuels, mainly utilizing crops as raw
materials, became controversial in the mid-2000s due to the resulting increase in the price of agricultural products [42,46]. This
criticism is reected in the decreased patenting activity in China's biofuel sector after it reached its historic peak in 2005.
China's national innovation capability has mainly relied on universities as a hub for forward engineering and
commercialization activity over the last 30 years [40,53,54].3 The development of the emerging biofuel industry is not an
exception. Table 3 indicates that eight of the top ten innovators of China's biofuel industry are universities, while Zhejiang
University, Nanjing University, and Tsinghua University are listed as the No. 1, No. 2, and No. 4 most prolic patentees respectively.
The only two exceptions are China Petroleum Corp (state-owned) and Chinese Academy Institute (the leading public research
institute) which are respectively ranked as the No. 3 and No. 5 innovators.
Our empirical results also demonstrate the intimate relationships between biofuel and chemical related technologies. Apart
from universities, China's top biofuel innovators are overwhelmingly dominated by the chemical related state-owned corporations
or public institutes such as Dalian Chemical Physics and Shanxi Coal Chemical Institute. Indeed, the global petro-chemical leaders
such as BP and Shell have announced a switch in their strategy on renewable energy to largely focus on the biofuel area, while they
both either abandon or cut the budget for other renewable energy options including wind turbines and solar photovoltaic research
projects [39].

3
In contrast to reverse engineering, forward engineering refers to a moving-forward process from the formulation of original idea, basic R&D, applied R&D, to
the physical implementation of commercialization. On the other hand, reverse engineering is to analyze an existing product or service in order to identify its
components and their interrelationships.

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M.-C. Hu, F. Phillips / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 78 (2011) 11301146

Table 3
China's top ten biofuel innovators, 19782008 Patents granted.
Source: EPO worldwide database search and compiled by the authors.

UNIV ZHEJIANG
UNIV NANJING
CHINA PETROLEUM CORP
UNIV TSINGHUA
CHINESE ACAD INST PROC
UNIV JIANGNAN
UNIV CHINA AGRICULTURAL
UNIV SHANGHAI JIAOTONG
UNIV TIANJIN
UNIV SHANDONG

1986

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

2000

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

Total

0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0

0
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
1
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0

0
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
2
1

0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
1

0
0
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
2
1
2
0
1
0
1
1

1
0
3
1
0
0
0
0
0
1

0
2
8
1
0
0
0
0
1
1

1
4
7
1
1
0
0
1
2
2

1
4
12
5
3
0
2
1
1
2

3
5
7
6
1
0
0
4
4
1

18
18
11
11
13
14
4
9
11
8

19
14
14
16
23
14
6
12
7
5

45
33
16
30
22
23
19
22
14
13

37
28
8
15
17
24
30
16
18
14

14
18
5
13
6
7
12
11
11
6

25
16
10
7
7
15
10
8
4
7

164
145
109
108
99
97
84
84
80
63

900
800
C12N

Number of patents

700
600

A23L

500
C07C
C12
P

400
300

A23
K

C12R

200
100
0

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Fig. 3. China's biofuel patenting activity, 1986-2008.

Source: EPO worldwide database search and complied by the authors.

Fig. 3 demonstrates the biofuel patenting activity over the last 30 years (19792008), in which the human necessity technology
(i.e. A23L, the preparation or treatment of food or non-alcoholic beverage) exerts the primary impetus in the development of
China's biofuel technology before the 2000s. As stated above, the 2000s was a critical turning point for China's biofuel industry (as
well as for the global biofuel industry,) while many related technologies started to ourish. The C12N (i.e. the compositions of
micro-organisms or enzymes), especially, has become China's main biofuel technology driver since the 2000s.
5.2. Technological trajectory (global patent family analysis)
Even though it is not perfect, patent data is widely recognized useful for measuring innovation and technological regimes
[29,55,56]. The indicators of technology value may include claims, regions, invention scopes, claim length, family of patents, family of
applications, competency of inventors, backward citations, forward citations, number of continuation, division, and continuation in
part (if led in the USPTO), litigations and etc. It is widely recognized that only valuable innovations will result in applications for
overseas patents. Thus, we further examine China's 84 worldwide families of patents across the USPTO, EPO, WIPO, and JPO, in order
to trace the evolving trajectory of the critical innovations over the past decades. Indeed, we see the 84 worldwide patent families as
critical milestones for developing China's biofuel industry. To explore the compositions of the critical patent families, a detailed
exploration in terms of biofuel technology functions and effects are shown in Table 4 and Fig. 4 respectively.
Table 4 and Fig. 4 indicate that China's biofuel technologies tend to be application-oriented and focus on manufacturing process,
and catalyst and fermentation media for bioproducts. While Table 4 indicates the white space for developing the biofuel technologies
in China, Fig. 4 demonstrates that all the critical biofuel innovations ourished from the 2000s.4 Physiochemical biofuel (the rst biofuel

4
The white space analysis allows to spot the opportunities for what's not there from the crowded areas of patenting. Therefore, the white space mapping
analysis helps the researcher or the company in determining their R&D strategy by suggesting potential high-payoff technology investigation and patenting
areas.

M.-C. Hu, F. Phillips / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 78 (2011) 11301146

1137

Table 4
Mapping China's biofuels technology from the global patent families.
Source: EPO worldwide database and compiled by the authors.
Physiochemical

Biochemical

Thermochemical

Bioproducts
(media and reactors)

Transesterication CN101195572 (US) 2006

reaction
CN1763102 (WO.EP) 2005

CN101041609A (WO)
2006
CN101063056 (WO)
2006
CN1648113 (WO. US. EP)
2004
CN1368540 (WO.US)
2001

CN1557913 (WO.US.EP.CA.BR)
2004
CN1141250 (WO.TW.RU.EP)
2001
CN101130469 (WO) 2006
CN1749281 (WO. JP) 2005
CN1763102 (WO. EP) 2005
CN101016703 (WO) 2007

Process equipments

CN101016703 (WO)
2007

CN1299798 (US) 1999

Manufacturing
process

CN101130466 (WO)
2006
CN1483499
(WO.EP.KR.JP) 2003
CN1113906 (WO.JP.EP)
1994

Enzymatic
synthesis

CN1100028 (US.EP.DK.DE)
1999
CN1287884
(WO.TW.RU.EP)1999
CN2736363Y (WO) 2004
CN1824783 (US.EP) 2005
CN1576246 (WO) 2005
CN1749281 (WO. JP) 2005
CN1299798 (US) 1999

Enzymatic
fermentation
Enzymatic
hydrolysis
Gasication-based
conversion
Separation system

CN101016703 (WO)
2007

CN1814609 (US) 2006

CN101239868 (WO)
2007

generation) is China's most matured technology, with different evolving development stages from focusing on various materials trials
in the period 20002005, to distillation and bioproducts in the recent years. This technology transition is associated with the emergence
of the second generation biofuels (mostly based on enzymatic biochemical and gasication-based thermochemical conversion
approaches), which prevailed from the mid-2000s while the price of agricultural products substantially increased and many advanced
countries such as the US and Japan identied biochemical and thermochemical biofuels as their major targets [17,19]. Along with
1994-1998 Year
Process equipments
CN1113906 (WO.JP.EP)

1999-2000
Manufacturing process

2001-2003

2004-2005

Process equipments
CN1483499 (WO.EP.KR.JP)

2006-2007
Process equipments
CN101130466 (WO)

Manufacturing process

Physiochemical
CN1141250 (WO.TW.RU.EP)

Physiochemical
CN1557913 (WO.US.EP.CA.BR) 2004
CN1763102 (WO.EP) 2005
CN1749281 (WO.JP) 2005
Various material CN1763102 (WO.EP) 2005
trials

Biochemical biofuels
CN1299798 (US) 1999
CN1100028 (US.EP.DK.DE) 1999
CN1287884 (WO.TW.RU.EP) 1999

Biochemical biofuels
CN2736363Y (WO) 2004
CN1824783 (US.EP) 2005
CN1576246 (WO) 2005
CN1749281(WO.JP) 2005

Enzymatic synthesis

Physiochemical
CN101195572(US) 2006
CN101130469 (WO) 2006
CN101016703 (WO) 2007
Distillation & bioproducts
li ti
Gasification-based conversion

Thermochemical
CN101016703 (WO) 2007

Bioproducts
CN1368540 (WO.US) 2001

Bioproducts
CN1648113 (WO.US. EP) 2004
Catalyst

Fig. 4. The evolution of China's global patent families, 19942007.

Source: EPO worldwide database and analyzed by the authors.

Bioproducts
CN101041609A (WO) 2006
CN1814609 (US) 2006
Fermentation
CN101063056 (WO) 2006
media and
CN101239868 (WO) 2007

1138

M.-C. Hu, F. Phillips / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 78 (2011) 11301146

chemical related technologies, bioproducts are particularly thriving in catalysis and fermentation media innovations which are mostly
derived from the development of the second generation biofuels.
Fig. 5 shows that the dynamic evolution of China's biofuel technology is overwhelmingly based on the chemicals eld, despite
that it has changed along with the different focuses of China's industrial development over the last 20 years. In the 1980s, China's
biofuel technology was highly interdependent with organic ne chemistry and process technology, while the agriculture and food
and pharmaceutical technologies joined as the knowledge base for biofuels in the 1990s. It is not until the 2000s that
pharmaceutical technologies (such as drug and microbiology, especially in the eld of scientic Chinese herbal medicines) became
dominant knowledge ows for China's biofuels and reached the 5060% degree of technology interdependence. Indeed, China's
pharmaceutical industry is growing signicantly and has become the number-one producer, in terms of production value, far
ahead of other Asian latecomers, as shown in Fig. 6.
We also conducted t-tests across different technological elds in the last two decades (19891998 and 19992008). The t-test
results substantiate the signicant differences while the technological interdependence of organic ne chemistry and agriculture and
food technologies since the 1990s and pharmaceutical technologies in the 2000s are all statistically signicant at the 5% level. These
ndings also correspond with the suggestion of previous studies, in which the university acts as the main knowledge source while the
chemical industry (including chemistry and pharmaceuticals) is the main driver for China's innovation activity over the last 30 years
[40,53].
5.3. Technological knowledge ows: backward and forward patent citations
Backward patent citations are references made to prior art in a patent application. Thus, they can trace the source of
innovation/knowledge as well as the developmental trajectory of innovation capability [24,57]. The forward citation rate reects
the technological value and impact of the patents. It is worth noting that the development of China's biofuel technology is highly
independent from that of other countries and performs as a closed innovation circuit. This is shown by its high self citation rates
(in both backward and forward) as demonstrated in Table 5. The biofuel technology derived from the university sector is seen as
the most active and open innovation circle, with its external knowledge source (i.e. the backward citation rate) accounting for
more than 64%, followed by the private sector which accounts for 35% of external knowledge sources. Along with the high
percentage of forward citation (92%), the data implies an enhanced innovation capability along with the absorptive capacity in the
university sector while that in the private sector is relatively weaker. In comparison, the biofuel technology developed by the
public research institutes presents a relatively closed innovation circulation, while Chinese assignees are the major knowledge
diffusers and accelerators in the development of China's biofuel industry, with the backward and forward self citation rates
amounting to 88% and 38% respectively.
Degree of interdependence between China's biomass and other industries, 1986-2008
0.7000

0.5000
0.4000
0.3000
0.2000
0.1000
0.0000
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08

Degree of interdependence

0.6000

Civil engineering, building and mining

Transports
Engines, pumps and turbines
Environmental technology
Agricultural and food processing and machinery
Processes technology
Pharmaceuticals
Materials, metallurgy
Chemical engineering
Organic fine chemistry

Consumer goods and equipment

Thermal processes
Machine tools
Materials processing, textile and paper
Hadling, printing
Agriculture and food
Biotechnology
Surface technology, coating
Macromolecular chemistry, polymers
Medical technology

Fig. 5. Technological interdependence between China's biofuel and other industries.

Source: EPO and complied by the authors.

M.-C. Hu, F. Phillips / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 78 (2011) 11301146

1139

450.00
400.00
China

US$100 million

350.00
300.00
250.00

India

200.00
150.00

Korea

100.00
Singapore

50.00

Taiwan

India

Taiwan

Korea

Singapore

20
07

20
05

20
03

20
01

19
99

19
97

19
95

19
93

19
91

19
89

19
87

19
85

0.00

China

Fig. 6. Production of pharmaecuetical industry in Asia, selective coutries, 1985-2008.

Source: India Bulk Drug Manufacturing Association, http://www.bdmai.org/production.html; Korea Pharmaceutical Manufacturers Association, http://www.
kpma.or.kr/kpma/ENG/dkorea.asp; China's Chemical Information Network, http://chemport.ipe.ac.cn/index.shtml.

Table 5
Backward citation/knowledge ows for China's biofuel industry, by sector.
University

PRI
N

Cited

Cited

23
10
10
5
4
4
3
1
1
1
1
63

CN (92%) 54 CN (88%) 60 CN (38%) 15 CN (71%) 20 CN (90%) 89 CN (65%) 16 CN (92%) 48 CN (100%) 1

DK
1 US
1
11 US
4 DE
2 JP
2
2

1
3 US
8
3 FR
1
3 HK
1
JP
1 NZ
1 DE
1 KR
1 KR
1 US
4 GB
1
US
1 JP
1 JP
2

4 DE
1
FR
1 KR
1 BE
1
JP
1 FR
2
IN
1 FR
1
NL
1 GB
1
SG
1

40

Citing

Cited

28

99

Citing

State-owned enterprise

CN (36%)
US
CA
DE
GB
CH
JP
KR
NC
NL
SU
Total

68

Private sector

Citing

59

Citing

Individual

29

Cited

52

Citing

N Cited

CN (100%) 2

Note: Citing rate refers to backward citation while cited rate indicates forward citation.

6. Discussions and concluding remark

Three ndings are excerpted from our empirical results, in which the two research questions are answered. First, the
technological development of China's biofuel sector was highly dependent on the human necessity technology eld (i.e. A23L,
the preparation or treatment of food or non-alcoholic beverage) before the 2000s, and has switched its reliance to the country's
strong chemical related eld (i.e. C12N, the compositions of micro-organisms or enzymes) since the 2000s. In comparison,
Taiwan's biofuel technology was found to be more dependent on its electronics and semiconductors elds, when the same
methodology was applied in an initial investigation by the rst author of the present paper. This demonstrates the evolutionary
lock-in effect as well as the importance of technology interdependence and knowledge diffusion in building a nation's innovation
capability.
Second, China's biofuel technology development has evolved in the mode of forward engineering, led by Chinese universities
rather than initiated by the public research institutes, which is in contrast to the experience of other East Asian latecomers
[8,40,53,54]. This argument is reinforced by the evidence of China's high degree of biofuel technology independence and relatively
closed innovation circulation.
Third, our patent map and technology trajectory analyses illustrate that China's biofuel technology tends to be applicationoriented and mainly focused on developing bioproducts utilizing fermentation and catalyst technologies. These matured biofuel
technologies are highly intertwined with the pharmaceutical industry (especially in the eld of scientic Chinese herbal
medicines) since the 2000s as shown in Fig. 5 above. This evidences that the development of biofuel industry is reciprocally
reinforcing China's innovation capability deriving from its prominent chemical sector. Indeed, the bioethanol fermentation
technology has already seen maturity in China [58,59].

1140

M.-C. Hu, F. Phillips / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 78 (2011) 11301146

We now discuss the three key empirical ndings, and add case material from the four major biofuel companies in China. We
then conclude the paper with informed conjecture on the emerging biofuel technology in China's transitional society.
6.1. The intimate relationship with chemical and food engineering related elds
As of 2009, China had more than 20 biofuel companies with a total of 30 billion ton production capacity, according to the
National Bureau of Statistics of China. Derived from the ninth ve-year national plan since 1997, four state supported enterprises
(SOEs) in the ve provinces (Heilongjiang, Jilin, Henan, Anhui, and Liaoning) have been selected as critical demonstration sites,
aiming at reducing the dependence on fossil fuel by 100 billion tons by 2020. The four selected state-supported enterprises are
(1) Heilongjiang Huarun Alcohol Co. Limited, (2) Ji Lin Fuel Alcohol Co. Limited, (3) Henan Ten Guan Ethanol Fuel Co. Limited, and
(4) Anhui BBCA Biochemcial Co. Ltd. Actually, three state-owned giants are major shareholders of the four ethanol producers:
(1) China National Cereals Oils and Foodstuffs (COFCO) is sole owner of Heilongjiang Huarun Alcohol, Anhui BBCA's largest
shareholder with a 20.74% stake, and controls 20% of Ji Lin Fuel Alcohol; (2) China Petroleum and Chemical Corp. (Sinopec, a listed
company on domestic and international stock exchanges with integrated upstream, midstream, and downstream operations)
holds 60% of Ji Lin Fuel Alcohol's shares; and (3) China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC, China's largest oil and gas producer)
controls 55% of Tianguan's parent Tianguan Group.
The four state-supported biofuel companies are briey described as follows.
1) Heilongjiang Huarun Alcohol Co.: HHA was established in February 1998 and registered as a China and foreign joint venture.
The company belongs to the Large and Light industry specialized in alcohol manufacturing. Main products include corn oil;
high protein DDGS feed; biofuel and etc.
2) Ji Lin Fuel Alcohol Co.: Ji Lin Fuel Alcohol was jointly built by China National Petroleum Corporation, Jilin Grain Group Co., Ltd
and China Resources Corporation, with interest of 55%, 25% and 20%, respectively. It was established in 2001 with paid-in
capital RMB1.2 billion and is the rst large fuel alcohol production base in China. The renovation project in Jilin Fuel Alcohol Co.,
Ltd. has been launched to expand the capacity to 400,000 t/year. It is expected to double the capacity to 1 million ton/year by
2015 and become the leader in China's biofuel industry.
3) Henan Ten Guan Ethanol Fuel Co. It was established in 2003 under the approval of the National Development Plan. Henan Ten
Guan Group is the largest shareholder with 60% while CNPC controls 40% of Henan Tech Guan shares. The company currently
owns 300,000 t/year production capacity.
4) Anhui BBCA Biochemical Co. was founded in 1998 and listed in Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 1999, is a leading enterprise in
agricultural product processing in China. BBCA Biochemical is a core subsidiary of COFCO group, which is listed in Fortune
magazine as one of the world's top 500 enterprises. Their products are widely applied in food additives, feed additives, and
chemical and medical industries, including citric acid and citrate etc. As one of the largest manufacturers of citric acid and
citrate in the world and one of the leading agricultural products processing enterprises in China, BBCA Biochemical has passed
the various international authentications such as ISO9001, ISO14001, HACCP, and NON-GMO.
Through the dominance of business ownership, China's biofuel technology is seen as largely based on the evolutionary strength
of the foodstuff and chemical eld. Indeed, both foodstuff and chemical sectors act as general source of technologies and drive the
cumulative innovations on food and energy security concerns, which have captured the most intensive attention in China's public
governance as well as in the series of national ve-year plans over the last three decades [60].
6.2. The intimate relationship between universities and the biofuel industry
The intimate relationship between university and industry in China's biofuel technological development is demonstrated
by the two sectors' close collaborations, aimed at reinforcing the R&D outcomes derived from universities and at realizing
technology commercialization in the biofuel industry. The forward engineering mode is based on a well-designed institute
setting, in which the technological development in process equipment, production, and storage technologies is aimed at
establishing the company's core competence through a deliberate layout on intellectual property rights. Table 6 indicates the
patenting activity in the four major companies, which correspond well with their competitive advantage on production capacity.
Anhuei Fengyuan is the most active patentee with the largest production capacity while the Heilongjiang Huarun with the least
production owns the fewest patents numbered in China's Intellectual Property Ofce (SIPO). All these patenting activities are
only emerging in recent years (starting from 2003). We also found that the technological development in the four major
companies is focused on matured fermentation and enzyme technologies which are, again, in line with our empirical ndings as
above.
Strong government support for the development of China's biofuel industry is shown in numerous national economic development
projects, in which the coordinated efforts of Chinese companies, foreign companies, universities, industry associations, central and local
government agencies and non-governmental organizations have pushed China to become one of the critical players in the global
biofuel industry.
This study thus provides an insight into the development of China's biofuel industry which has heavily relied on the chemical
and foodstuff technology as bases for developing its national innovation capability. It also provides a mirror for other technology
catch-up latecomer nations to understand the importance and impact of endogenous technology evolution and interdependence

M.-C. Hu, F. Phillips / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 78 (2011) 11301146

1141

Table 6
Patenting activity in the SIPO and production output in the four major biofuel companies.
Source: [43]; SIPO search and compiled by the authors.

Anhui BBCA Biochemical

Henan Ten Guan Ethanol
Ji Lin Fuel Alcohol
Heilongjiang Huarun Alcohol

Invention

New model

New design

Production output (million ton/year) 2007

29
19
3
1

1
11
3
0

0
3
5
1

0.50
0.45
0.40
0.20

Note: SIPO has divided the patents into three types: (1) invention type refers the most novel innovation (which is equivalent to the utility patent in the USPTO),
(2) new model represents the application-oriented innovation, and (3) new design reects innovation regarding visual appearance.

for building an emerging industry such as biofuels. Nevertheless, the wide applications of renewable energy including biofuels are
undoubtedly and largely not only dependent on the techno-economic paradigm but also driven by the adoption of political and
social instructions as a whole. A limitation of this paper is its focus on the techno-economic paradigm without a detailed
investigation of the socialpolitical aspects of the development of biofuels in China. We wish to partially bridge this gap by means
of a brief discussion of the latter, as follows.
6.3. Emerging biofuel technology in China's transitional society
Recent literature has reected a sceptical re-evaluation of biofuels, with criticism directed at questions of energy budget, water
budget [61], disruption of the soil nutrient cycle by removal of crop residue for biofuel production [62], economies of scale, social
exploitation (e.g., poor wages and labor standards in the Indonesian palm oil industry) [63], and externalities including indirect
emissions [64], competition with food crops, and the health effects of concentrated mycotoxins in the by-products of biofuel
processing [62]. In addition, arguing in favor of nuclear energy, Ausubel [63] emphasizes biofuels' resistance to economies of scale and
states that:
.. in biomass the lack of economies of scale loom large. Because more biomass quickly hits the ceiling of watts per square
metre, it can become more extensive but not cheaper. If not false, the idol of biomass is not sustainable on the scale needed and
will not contribute to decarbonisation. Biomass may photosynthesise but it is not green.
The controversies suggest the numbers in favor of biofuels do not pencil out under the current state of technology. Some
exceptions are noted. Sugar-cane ethanol seems carbon-negative, and the potential of algal biofuel looks promising as its
externalities are likely to be lesser though further research is needed. However, the ndings of the present paper indicate that
China is committed to biofuel as a policy priority. We use the nal paragraphs of the paper to speculate about the context, reasons,
and implications of this commitment.
Though Chinese scientists and policy makers can be presumed to be aware of (and are active contributors to) the scientic
debate (see Ref. [64]), they may combine an optimistic view of future efciency gains with a nationalistic desire to carve out an
area of international technological supremacy and control of intellectual property. For example, some contend that receding
Himalayan glaciers may exacerbate fresh water supply problems in China, but many algae may be cultivated in salt water. China
does not lack for either shoreline or acreage. Its vast and varied geography will engender multiple, localized land-based and waterbased biofuel initiatives. Moreover, the development of processing machines that can be used locally may reduce transport costs
and thus increase overall life-cycle efciency of biofuel utilization.
Developers of a biofuel industry in a transitional society such as China may also need to consider the effects beyond those
that are directly tied to carbon emission. These effects have to do with the elements of a sustainable society such as labor rights,
externalities, land despoilation, and public health. The pace of biofuel development and implementation in China will be
moderated by China's policy priorities as well as by its growing endogenous technology capabilities in the chemical and foodstuff
elds.
By utilizing endogenous technology capability embedded in the national innovation capacity, this study highlights public
implications for other technology catch-up latecomers attempting to build an emerging industry while facing technology
uncertainty in a transitional society. Along with the mentioned geographical, social and political factors, China is gaining an
opportunity to leverage its biofuel industry into a position of international supremacy in this technological area.
Acknowledgments
The rst author would like to acknowledge the nancial support from the National Science Council (NSC-99-2410-H-007-005-MY3)
and valuable suggestions from Prof John Mathews during the preparation of this paper. The authors are also grateful for the technical
help from the Center for Energy and Environmental Research, National Tsing Hua University, for clarication and correction on the
chemical related terminologies.

1142

1997
Prod
North America
South and Central
America
EU and Eurasia
Asia
Middle East
Africa
World Total
a
b

1998
Cons

Prod

1999
Cons

Prod

2000
Cons

Prod

2001
Cons

Prod

2002
Cons

Prod

2003
Cons

Prod

2004
Cons

Prod

2005
Cons

Prod

2006
Cons

Prod

2007
Cons

670 1012
(84%) a
329 220

668 1033

639 1058

651 1071

652 1072

660 1071

670 1092

667 1135

645 1139

647 1130

350 227

338 227

345 226

340 231

334 229

318 222

338 228

347 236

345 240

689 936
371 944
(21%) b
1051 212
370 109
3480 2489

687 942
369 920
(21%) b
1111 215
364 113
3549 2530

700 935
365 963
(22%) b
1079 219
360 116
3481 2555

725 928
381 992
(23%) b
1141 226
371 116
3614 2567

747 934
377 993
(23%) b
1111 230
374 116
3601 2583

The number of percentage represents the consumption share of the US in North American region.
The number of percentage represents the consumption share of China in Asian region.

786 933
378 1022
(24%) b
1039 238
378 118
3575 2589

819 941
373 1059
(26%) b
1123 248
398 120
3701 2623

850 953
377 1123
(28%) b
1193 261
441 124
3866 2701

845 958
378 1136
(29%) b
1215 272
467 130
3897 2735

848 969
378 1159
(30%) b
1224 281
473 132
3915 2752

Prod

Cons

643 1135
(83%) a
333 252
861 949
379 1185
(31%) b
1202 294
489 138
3907 1633

M.-C. Hu, F. Phillips / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 78 (2011) 11301146

Appendix A
Global oil production and consumption, by region, 19972007.
Source: BP Statistical Review (2008).

M.-C. Hu, F. Phillips / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 78 (2011) 11301146

1143

Appendix B-1.
The 95 identied biofuel related international patent classications (4-digit).
Source: EPO.
IPCs

Denitions

A01H 1

Processes for modifying

genotypes

B01J 8

Chemical or physical C07C 55

processes in general,
conducted in the
presence of uids and
solid particles;
apparatus for such
processes

A01H 5

Flowering plants, i.e.

angiosperms

B02B 1

Preparing grain for

milling or like
processes

C07C 67

Preparation of
C08L 99
carboxylic acid esters

A01H 9

Pteridophytes, e.g. ferns, B02B 5

club-mosses, and
horse-tails

Grain treatment not

otherwise provided
for

C07C 69

Esters of carboxylic
acids; Esters of
carbonic or
haloformic acids

A01H 13 Algae

IPCs

B02C 9

A23C 9

Milk preparations; milk B02C 19

powder or milk powder
preparations

A23D 9

Other edible oils or fats,

e.g. shortenings and
cooking oils

A23J 1

B30B 11
Obtaining protein
compositions for
foodstuffs; bulk opening
of eggs and separation of
yolks from whites
C01B 31
Foods or foodstuffs;
their preparation or
treatment
Animal feeding-stuffs C02F 9

A23L 1

A23K 1

B09B 3

A61K 48 Medicinal preparations C02F 11

containing genetic
material which is
inserted into cells of the
living body to treat
genetic diseases; GENE
therapy

Denitions

IPCs

Denitions

Saturated
compounds having
more than one
carboxyl group
bound to acyclic
carbon atoms

C08F 8

C12N 15 Mutation or
Chemical
genetic
modication by
engineering;
after-treatment
DNA or RNA
concerning
genetic
engineering,
vectors.
Preparation of
Compositions of C12P 1
compounds or
natural
compositions,
macromolecular
not provided
compounds or of
for in groups
derivatives
thereof not
provided for in
groups
C12P 3
Preparation of
Chemical
elements or
modication of
inorganic
drying oils
compounds
except carbon
dioxide
C12P 5
Preparation of
Adhesives
hydrocarbons
based on starch,
amylose or
amylopectin o

C07D 211 Heterocyclic

compounds
containing
hydrogenated
pyridine rings, not
condensed with
other rings
Other disintegrating C07D 307 Heterocyclic
devices or methods
compounds
containing vemembered rings
having one oxygen
atom as the only ring
hetero atom
C07D 311 Heterocyclic
Destroying solid
compounds
waste or
transforming solid
containing sixwaste
membered rings
having one oxygen
atom as the only
hetero atom,
condensed with
other rings
C07F 9
Compounds
Presses specially
containing elements
adapted for forming
of the 5th Group of
shaped articles from
the Periodic System
material in particulate
or plastic state.
Carbon; compounds C07G 17 compounds of
thereof
unknown
constitution
Multistage treatment C07H 15 Compounds
containing
of water, waste water,
hydrocarbon or
or sewage
substituted
hydrocarbon radicals
directly attached to
hetero atoms of
saccharide radicals
Treatment of sludge; C07H 19 Compounds
devices therefore
containing a hetero
ring sharing
Other milling
methods or mills
specially adapted for
grain

C09F 7

C09J 103

IPCs

Denitions

C10L 1

Liquid
carbonaceous
fuels

C12P 7

C10L 5

Solid fuels

C12P 13 Preparation of
nitrogencontaining
organic
compounds

C11B 1

C12P 19
Production of
fats or fatty oils
from raw
materials

C11B 3

C11C 1

C11C 3

Preparation of
oxygencontaining
organic
compounds

Preparation of
compounds
containing
saccharide
radicals
Rening fats or
C12P 21 Preparation of
fatty oils
peptides or
proteins
C12P 39 Processes
Preparation of
involving
fatty acids from
microfats, fatty oils,
organisms of
or waxes;
different
rening the
genera in the
fatty acids
same process,
simultaneously
Fats, oils, or fatty C12Q 1 Measuring or
testing
acids by
processes
chemical
involving
modication of
enzymes
fats, oils, or fatty
acids obtained
therefrom
(continued on next page)

1144

M.-C. Hu, F. Phillips / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 78 (2011) 11301146

Appendix
(continued)
B-1 (continued)
IPCs

Denitions

IPCs

Denitions

IPCs

Denitions

IPCs

Denitions

B01D 1

Evaporating

C07B 61

General methods of
organic chemistry

C07H 21

C12C 11

Fermentation
processes for
beer

C12R 1

Processes using
microorganisms

B01D 3

Distillation or related
exchange processes in
which liquids are
contacted with gaseous
media

C07C 1

C07K 1

C12G 1

Preparation of
wine or
sparkling wine

C13D 1

Production of
sugar, i.e.
sucrose and
juices

B01D 5

Condensation of vapors; C07C 2

recovering volatile
solvents by
condensation

Preparation of
hydrocarbons from
one or more
compounds, none of
them being a
hydrocarbon
Preparation of
hydrocarbons from
hydrocarbons
containing a smaller
number of carbon
atoms
Preparation of
hydrocarbons from
hydrocarbons
containing a different
number of carbon
atoms
Processes involving
the simultaneous
production of more
than one class of
oxygen-containing
compounds
Preparation of
compounds having
hydroxy or O-metal
groups bound to a
carbon atom not
belonging to a sixmembered aromatic
ring
Saturated compounds
having hydroxy or Ometal groups bound
to acyclic carbon
atoms

Compounds
containing two or
more
mononucleotide
units
General methods for
the preparation of
peptides

Peptides having up to C12G 3

20 amino acids in an
undened or only
partially dened
sequence; derivatives
thereof
Peptides having more C12L 11
than 20 amino acids;
gastrins;
somatostatins;
melanotropins; and
derivatives thereof
Carrier-bound or
C12M 1
immobilized peptides

Preparation of
other alcoholic
beverages

C13K 1

Glucose

Cellar tools

C25B 1

Electrolytic
production of
inorganic
compounds or
non-metals

Apparatus for
enzymology or
microbiology

D21C 3

Pulping
cellulosecontaining
materials

C08B 11

Preparation of
cellulose ethers

Microorganisms, e.g.
protozoa; and
compositions
thereof

G01N
33

C08B 30

Preparation of starch, C12N 5

degraded or nonchemically modied
starch, amylose, or
amylopectin

Investigating or
analyzing
materials by
specic
methods not
covered by the
preceding
groups
Fuel cells;
manufacture
thereof

B01D 13 Processes of separation

employing semipermeable membranes

C07C 6

B01D 17 Separation of liquids, not C07C 27

provided for elsewhere,
e.g. by thermal diffusion

C07C 29
B01D 61 Processes specially
adapted for
manufacturing semipermeable membranes
for separation processes

C07C 31
B01D 71 Semi-permeable
membranes for
separation processes or
apparatus characterized
by the material

C07K 4

C07K 14

C07K 17

C12N 1

B01F 17

Use of substances as
emulsifying, wetting,
dispersing or foamproducing agents

C07C 51

Preparation of
carboxylic acids or
their salts, halides or
anhydrides

C08B 31

Preparation of
derivatives of starch

C12N 9

B01J 3

Processes of utilising
sub-atmospheric or
super-atmospheric
pressure to effect
chemical or physical
change of matter

C07C 53

Saturated compounds C08B 37

having only one
carboxyl group bound
to an acyclic carbon
atom or hydrogen

Preparation of
polysaccharides not
provided for in
groups

C12N 11

Undifferentiated H01M 8
human, animal
or plant cells, e.g.
cell lines;
tissues;
cultivation or
maintenance
thereof
F26B 25
Enzymes;
proenzymes;
and
compositions
thereof
Carrier-bound or
immobilized
enzymes;
carrier-bound or
immobilized
microbial cells

Details of
general
application not
covered by
group

Appendix B-2
The 90 identied biofuel related keywords.
Source: Biofuels, Bioproducts, and Biorening, http://www.biofpr.com.
Identied keywords
Acetaldehyde
Acetic acid
Acyltransferase
Adsorption
Alcohol tolerance

Chrysosporium
Cinnamic acid
Cyanobacteria
Diacylglycerol
E. coli

Pre-treatment
Polysaccharide
Separations
Fractionation
Glycerol

M.-C. Hu, F. Phillips / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 78 (2011) 11301146

1145

Appendix
(continued)
B-1 (continued)
Identied keywords
Algae
Alpha-amylase
Amino acids
Anaerobic digestion
Arabinose
Aspergillus
Biocatalyst
Bioethanol
Biodiesel
Biogas
Biological conversion
Biomass
Biopolymer
Biosynthetic pathway
Biotechnology
Beta-glucanase
Butanol
Corn
Cellulosic ethanol
Cellulosic material
Cellulose
Catalyst mixing
Carbon dioxide
Cellulases
Cellulolytic

Enterococci
Enzymatic cleavage
Enzymatic hydrolysis
Estherication
Esthers
Ethylene
Extraction
Ethanol
Expansion
Fats
Fatty acid
Fermentation
Fermentable sugars
Filamentous fungi
Gelatinization
Gaseous byproduct
Hydrocarbon
Hydrolysis
Isolation
Lactic acid
Methane
Polypeptides
Polymerization
Polyesters
Purication

GMO
Greenhouse gas
Hydrogen
L-lysine
Lignin
Lignocellulosic material
Maize
Methanol
Microorganisms
Novel enzymes
Olen
Polynucleotide
Pyruvate
Pyruvic acid
Recombinant DNA
Recombinant organism
Recovery
Second-generation biofuels
Starch
Sugar beet
Sweet potato
Syngas
Triglycerides
Vegetable oil
Waste

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Mei-Chih Hu is an Associate Professor at the Institute of Technology Management, National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan (email: mchu@mx.nthu.edu.tw). She
holds a PhD in Management from Macquarie Graduate School of Management, Australia. Her research is in the area of technology management and university
industry-government linkages. Her papers have been published in a variety of journals including Research Policy, World Development, Technological Forecasting and
Social Change, and etc.
Fred Phillips is a Professor at the Marshall Goldsmith School of Management at Alliant International University in San Diego. He holds a PhD in Management from
University of Texas at Austin, U.S.A. He also has professorships at Maastricht School of Management in the Netherlands, and at Ponticia Universidad Catlica in
Lima, Peru. His research interests are in the high-tech regional economic development and management education, in which a series of books and papers have
been published in a variety of journals.