Voting Behaviour:

Importance of Short and Long Term Factors

by Carrie Ann Doherty

The two main factors which affect voting behaviour are long term factors and
short term factors. It has been said that short term factors are increasingly
becoming more important than long term factors. In the past, nearly all
voting behaviour could be explained by solely long term factors, but this has
changed in recent times. Long term factors are factors which have a long
term influence on the way a person votes, and vice versa for short term
factors. Nowadays, anything can influence a person's vote. Some of the
factors which can influence a person's vote are: social class, age, tactical
voting, opinion polls and geography.
Social class is a long term factor in relation to voting. Social class is the group
within society in which a person is placed. A person's social class is mainly
characterised by their occupation, income, area in which they live, and their
education. A person's social class influences their vote because particular
parties have certain policies which appeal to a certain group of people and
therefore working class, middle class and upper class voters will lean towards
different parties because their manifestos appeal to them specifically.
Traditionally, the Conservatives appeal to the upper class (AB class) as their
policies protect businesses and wealth. Labour appeals to the working class
(C1 and C2 class) as their policies are based on creating good living
standards for working class and middle class citizens and bringing them more
money so that they can live comfortably. For example, in the 2015 General
Election, 45% of those who voted for the Conservatives were upper class,
compared to only 26% of Labour voters being upper class. Although Labour
lost all but one seat in Scotland to the SNP, this does not make a difference
on the relationship between social class and voting behaviour as SNP's
policies appeal to the exact same type of people as Labour does. It is clear
that there is still a very strong relationship between social class and voting
behaviour; the privileged still continue to vote Conservatives and the less
privileged are still drawn to Labour, or in Scotland's case, the Scottish
National Party. This shows that this particular long term factor still has a very
strong influence on voting behaviour and has not really changed at all
because parties still create policies based on the social class they wish to
appeal to.
Another factor to be taken into consideration is opinion polls. Opinion polls
are a short term factor in relation to voting behaviour. An opinion poll is a
survey online which people voice their opinions on by voting on an option

which best suits them. Opinion polls are short term because they change
constantly, depending on which candidate is the most popular at that certain
time the poll was carried out. Opinion polls can also show which candidates
are falling behind and afterwards these candidates may try a little harder to
gain public support. Opinions polls play a very big role in the outcome of an
election. This is due to the fact that when newspapers get the results of
opinion polls and publish them, this can have a major influence on what party
a person votes for. For example, if it looks like Labour is winning a majority,
this may discourage Labour supporters from voting at all as they think it is
unneccessary. However, opinion polls are not completely reliable though as
they are constantly changing and there isn't a big enough multitude of people
using opinion polls in order to represent an entire nation in some cases, so
the opinion poll results are sometimes just misrepresentative of what people
will actually vote on the day of the Election. This shows that this particular
short term factor plays a very big role in voting behaviour as it is still
important for newspapers to publish the public's opinion in order to
communicate which party is failing and which is doing well, ultimately
changing the behaviour of the candidates and also the behaviour of the voter.
Another factor is age. Age is a long term factor in relation to voting
behaviour. Age influences voting behaviour due to the fact that younger
voters and older voters differ widely on their political views, so age tends to
have a significant impact on the outcome of an election. A person's age not
only determines who a person votes for, but also if they will vote at all.
Typically, age influences the vote as younger people tend to be disengaged in
politics so are less likely to go out and vote, whereas older voters turn out in
greater numbers. Young people are typically left-wing and over 65s are
traditionally more likely to be right-wing. This is because Conservatives are
traditionally the party of low taxation and as people require more wealth the
older they get, these older voters benefit from a Conservative government.
Young people tend to vote for parties promising social change, so more
upbeat, new parties like the Scottish National Party. However, an example to
show the turnout rates would be the fact that 76% of over 65s voted in the
2015 General Election, compared to only 44% of 18-24 year olds. This means
that as older people are traditionally Conservative voters, the Conservatives
are receiving more votes than the parties that younger people would typically
vote for. This shows that age plays an important factor in relation to voting
behaviour as young people and old people have very contrasting ideals and
the ages are basically competing for a government which suits them
specifically.
Another factor is geography. Geography is a long term factor in relation to
voting behaviour. Geography is the location in which a voter lives and
influences voting behaviour due to the fact that each area has different needs

and all parties offer different things to suit particular geographical locations'
needs. This is evident in the North/South divide, in which the North
traditionally vote Labour and the South traditionally vote Conservative.
Scotland only has one Conservative constituency which shows that this divide
is real. Labour tend to offer policies which appeal to people who live in poorer
areas and Conservatives offer policies for the rich. For example, in Cornwall,
50.5% of people voted Conservatives and in Liverpool 67.4% of people voted
Labour. This shows that traditional former heavy industrial areas (North
England, West Central Scotland, and Wales) vote Labour and in wealthy,
Southern areas, people tend to side with Conservatives. This therefore shows
that geography correlates with income, social class, etc. which are all
determining factors when it comes to how a person votes. Ultimately,
geography is an important long term factor and plays a big role in how people
vote due to the fact that all geographical locations have different needs and
class loyalty still remains pretty consistent in given areas.
Another factor is tactical voting. Tactical voting is a short term factor in
relation to voting behaviour. Tactical voting is when someone purposefully
votes for a party which they do not support in order to keep another party
from governing. Tactical voting can cause people to vote for parties which
they don't agree with which influences up to 3% of the results. Tactical voting
usually takes place because the voter realises that the candidate they
support has little to no chance of winning so the voter will vote for their
second or at least most popular option so that they are voting for a party
whose policies are at least remotely similar to what they believe. For
example, in Scotland a Green Party supporter would vote for Labour or SNP
just to keep the Conservatives out of government. This type of tactical voting
would take place in marginal seats which is constituencies that have two
parties that gain a large majority of the votes and are therefore basically
competing. A voter of a small party will vote for one of the two - picking the
one whose policies they agree with most in order to stop the other party from
gaining the most votes. This shows that tactical voting is becoming more
important due to its big influence on voting behaviour as voters are not
voting in a way which is true to themselves, and rather in a way to just
ensure that a specific party or candidate does not take the lead, which can
manipulate the ultimate results of the election and does not show true
democratic representation.
Ultimately, this evidence shows that although short term factors are
important; long term factors are just as important and play as big a role in
relation to voting behaviour. On one hand, the long term factor of social class
is still having a big influence on how a person votes due to the fact that class
loyalty still remains fairly consistent throughout the nation, however much
class dealignment has come into place - there are still copious amounts of

people who will consistently vote for a certain party based purely on their
income, financial needs, and where they are from. However, this short term
factor fluctuates all the time depending on the state the economy is in at the
time of the election, so that shows that its effect is constantly changing and
is not 100% affecting of the result. On the other hand, the long term factor of
geography still has a very big influence on voting as people are born into
communities which have established an attachment to particular parties
whose policies are there to help them specifically, which links into social class
as well, and therefore the state of the location in which the person lives
definitely does affect how they will vote. They are not only voting for
themselves, but also for their community and in a way that will better their
way of living. Overall, the long term factor of age has a huge influence on
voting as a person's age determines not only who they will vote for but also if
they will vote at all. This is due to the fact that parties will continue to
promote policies to a particular group of people and age is always a playing
factor in whom a party's target audience is, and has therefore remained the
most consistent of them all. This shows that long term factors are equally as
important as short term factors because they are still continuing to have a
powerful influence over how a person votes. Despite how things may change
over time, the core of long term factors always remains relevant.