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Lesson7:OverviewofLifeTablesandSurvivalRates|MEASUREEvaluationM&ELearningCenter
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Lesson7:OverviewofLifeTablesandSurvivalRates
Course Objective
Acquire skills to use life tables and calculate survival rates
Expected Outcome
Ability to use alternative sources of data (life tables and census reports) to construct survival rates
The cohort component projection method projects the population into the future by age (usually 5-year age groups) and sex. Survival rates are used to calculate the
number of people that will be alive at a future date in time. This lesson provides information on alternative ways to calculate survival rates. It begins with a discussion of
life tables, since survival rates are derived from life tables. It demonstrates how to calculate rates for ages birth to 85 plus. It also discusses ways to use census data to
compute survival rates when life tables are not available.
Life tables
Life tables are used to measure mortality, survivorship, and the life expectancy of a population at varying ages.
There are several types of life tables. A generation or cohort life table is a life history of the mortality experiences of an actual cohort of individuals. The cohort begins
at birth and their mortality experiences are recorded through the death of the last member of that cohort. For example, demographers use the table to trace the mortality
experiences of a cohort or group of individuals born in 1910 and record the mortality experiences of each member until the last one dies. In most cases, generation life
tables are used to study historic periods.
00-01
1-5
5-10
10-15
15-20
20-25
25-30
30-35
35-40
40-45
45-50
50-55
55-60
60-65
65-70
nQx
lx
ndx
Lx
Tx
Column 2
Column 3
Column 4
Column 5
Column 6
0.02592
0.0042
0.00232
0.00201
0.00443
0.00611
0.00632
0.00654
0.01098
0.01765
0.02765
0.04387
0.05987
0.09654
0.13654
100000
97408
96999
96774
96579
96151
95564
94960
94339
93303
91656
89122
85212
80111
72377
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2592
409
225
195
428
587
604
621
1036
1647
2534
3910
5102
7734
9882
97408
387996
483869
482897
480757
477820
474800
471695
466516
458282
445610
426061
400553
361884
312472
6892855
6795447
6407451
5923582
5440686
4959928
4482108
4007308
3535613
3069097
2610815
2165205
1739144
1338591
976707
e
Column 7
68.93
69.76
66.06
61.21
56.33
51.58
46.90
42.20
37.48
32.89
28.48
24.29
20.41
16.71
13.49
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Lesson7:OverviewofLifeTablesandSurvivalRates|MEASUREEvaluationM&ELearningCenter
70-75
75-80
80-85
85-90
90-95
95+
0.18765
0.25439
0.37887
0.47898
0.57908
1
62494
50767
37853
23511
12250
5156
11727
12915
14341
11261
7094
5156
253837
189263
117557
61250
25781
16548
664235
410399
221135
103578
42329
16548
10.63
8.08
5.84
4.41
3.46
3.21
No migration
Constant age-specific number of births each year
An increase by a constant number of births each year and decrease by the same constant number of deaths each year
Stationary age structure size In each age group, the number of person-years lived is always the same as that of the original life table cohort.
When a person dies or enters the next higher age interval, their place is immediately taken by someone entering from the next lower age interval. The number of
persons in the age interval remains the same. The values in the Lx and Tx columns are based on the assumption that an additional 100,000 persons are added to the
table annually and are subject to the mortality rates computed in the nQx column. The population is considered stationary because the total population and the
number of people in each age interval do not change.
Column 7
e: This column indicates the average remaining lifetime for a given age group.
^Top
For the last age cohort (7585+),use the Tx column to create a 5-year survival rate as shown in Equation 7-3.
The value of Tx represents the number of survivors in a particular age group and all older age groups.
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Lesson7:OverviewofLifeTablesandSurvivalRates|MEASUREEvaluationM&ELearningCenter
Equation 7-3
Surviving the oldest age cohort
^Top
EAST MODELS: (18781920) Historic data for Austria, Germany, Czechoslovakia, Northern Italy,
and Poland. Characteristics: high mortality in infancy and increasingly high rates over age 50.
NORTH MODELS: (18511955) Norway, Sweden and Iceland. Characteristics: Low infant mortality
and high adult 45+ mortality from tuberculosis.
SOUTH MODELS: (18761958) Spain, Portugal, and Southern Italy. Characteristics: High childhood
mortality 04, low mortality ages 4060, and high mortality 65+.
WEST MODELS: (18811959) Australia, Belguim, Canada, Denmark, Israel, Japan, Sweden, England,
Wales, Finland, France, Netherlands, New Zealand, Northern Ireland, Scotland, White South Africa,
Taiwan, and the United States. Characteristics: residual collection of the other countries not included
in the other model tables.
Step 2:
Selecting
an
appropriate
table
The 1000 m column at age 0 depicts the infant mortality rate for the regional model life table. For
the selected region, use the 1000 mx column at age 0 to identify a table that closely matches the
infant mortality rate of your the country/locale.
The table must also have a similar life expectancy to that of the country of interest. To compare the
life expectancy of males and females in a country to that of the regional model life table, use the ex
column at age 0.
Once tables for males and females have been identified, use the 5-year survival rates in column Px,
as shown in Equation 7-2 (use pop-up box).
Coale, Demeny, and Vaughan (pages 2936) provide a detailed description of the table columns and indicate additional ways the regional model life tables can be used in
developing countries.
If copies of the regional model life tables are not available, use the model life tables produced by the United Nations. The infant mortality and life expectancy rates are
used to select UN model life tables. Once appropriate tables have been selected, calculate survival rates using the Lx and Tx columns.
^Top
Table 7-2
Example of How to Calculate Census Survival Rates
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Ages Prior
Census
Ages Recent
Census
Column 1
Column 2
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75+
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Column 3
Column 4
854046
684900
555790
523890
456765
450900
432980
421123
390879
388012
354678
342123
300987
223456
1234512
90876
Column 5 =
Column 4 divided by
Column 3
Column 6 =
Square Root of Column 5
Column 5
Column 6
850654
702562
566432
533118
460213
441232
431223
412932
387432
371123
332321
301232
263123
194022
90987
80432
0.996028
1.025787
1.01914
1.017614
1.00754
0.978558
0.995942
0.980549
0.991181
0.956472
0.93696
0.880478
0.874200
0.868278
0.073702
0.885074
0.998012
1.012811
1.009528
1.008768
1.003767
0.989221
0.997968
0.990227
0.995580
0.977994
0.96796
0.938338
0.934986
0.93181
0.27148
0.940783
Columns 1 and 2 guide the placement of national census data. Data from the prior census (1990) goes in column 3, with census data for the last census year (2000) in
column 4. The census survival rate is calculated by dividing Column 4 by Column 3 (year 2000 divided by year 1990). This produces a 10-year rate. To obtain a 5-year
rate, take the square root of the 10-year rate. Please note that census survival rates are primarily used to estimate net migration. They should be used only in situations
when access to life tables is not available to calculate survival rates. To improve the accuracy of the rates, use national census data for native-born residents. Exclude the
foreign-born population in tables to help control the influence of international migration. At least two sets of census survival rates must be produced, one for males and
one for females. Additional rates may be needed if other attributes of the population are to be included.
Discussion
Projections of the population by age and sex require the use of survival rates. This lesson provided information on alternative ways to calculate these rates. The next
lesson will demonstrate how to use survival rates to calculate net migration and the projected size of a locale by 5-year age groups and sex.
^Top
7.6 Exercises
Use the information provided in Table 7-1 to answer the following questions.
1. Develop a 5-year survival rate to determine how many women ages 5054 are expected to live to be 5559 years of age. Which Lx numbers would be used?
2. Develop a 10-year survival rate to determine how many women ages 5054 are expected to live to be 6064 years of age.
3. Part 1: Calculate 10-year survival rates to estimate net migration. How would survival rates be calculated for the first three cohorts and the last age cohort? Note:
Survival rates for births occurring from 1995 to 2000 and from 1990 to 1995 will be needed, in addition to a rate for those surviving from ages 04 to 1014.
Part 2: Calculate a rate for those age 75+ in 1990 who will be age 85+ in year 2000.
^Top
Exercise Answers
Answer Question 7-1
Answer Question 7-2
Answer Question 7-3
The first survival rate is for the births that took place from 19952000. This is a
5-year period, calculate a 5-year rate for the births. Use the following numbers
from the Lx column.
Next, develop a survival rate for the births that took place from 19901995.
Develop a 10-year rate to determine how many of
those ages 04 in 1990 will be 1014 years of age
in the year 2000.
Next, develop a 10-year rate to determine how
many of those ages 59 in 1990 will be 1519 years
of age in the year 2000.
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Lesson7:OverviewofLifeTablesandSurvivalRates|MEASUREEvaluationM&ELearningCenter
The 10-year survival rate for the last age cohort relies on
the Tx column. Develop a rate to determine how many of
those ages 75+ in 1990 will be 85 + years in the year
2000.
Answers to
Review
Exercises
Answer
Review Exercises:
Question 1
When it is necessary to project population by age and sex to plan for different segments of the population.
Answer Review Exercises: Question 2
1. It is highly dependent on obtaining reliable demographic information.
2. It assumes that the survival rates, birth rates, and estimates of migration are constant throughout the projection period, whether it's a 5-year or 20-year projection.
3. It does not consider the non-demographic factors that influence population growth or decline.
Answer Review Exercises: Question 3
1. Compare projection results with another projection technique.
2. Look at old population pyramids. Do the age cohorts of the projected population move up the pyramid.
3. Consider external factors that could have alter the population composition.
^Top
References
George W. Barclay, "The study of mortality," Techniques of Population Analysis (New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1958) 123134.
Ansley J. Coale, Paul Demeny and Barbara Vaughan, 1983, "Uses of the Tables," Regional Model Life Tables and Stable Populations, 2nd ed. (New York: Academic
Press, 1983) 2936.
Donald J. Bogue, Kenneth Hinze and Michael White, Techniques of Estimating Net Migration (Chicago: Community and Family Study Center, University of Chicago,
1982).
Andrew M. Isserman, "The Right People, the Right Rates," Journal of the American Planning Association 59.1(1993): 4564.
Steve H. Murdock and David R. Ellis, Applied Demography: An Introduction to Basic Concepts, Methods, and Data (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1991).
James C. Raymondo, "Survival Rates: Census and Life Table Methods," Population Estimation and Projection (New York: Quorum Books, 1992) 4360.
Henry S. Shryock and Jacob S. Siegel, "The Life Table," The Methods and Materials of Demography (Washington, D.C.: United States Bureau of the Census, 1973).
Note: The sample life table (Table X) was produced using an interactive life table provided by Simple Interactive Statistical Analysis (http://home.clara.net/sisa/index.htm)
and developed by Daan Uitenbroek, of the Netherlands. From the homepage click on Free Spreadsheets.
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