Agribusines Equity Strategy

Business Monitor International
You are here:
Home
Page 1 of 15
Reports & Strategic Content
Reports
2015 Agribusiness Equity Strategy
2 0 1 5 Agribusine ss Equit y St ra t e gy
Jan 23 2015 Global Agribusiness Special report
Re port Cont e nt s
I ndust ry T re nd Ana lysis - 2 0 1 5 Agribusine ss Equit y St ra t e gy

Jan 20 2015 Global Industry Trend Analysis Agribusiness
Industry Trend Analysis - 2015

Agribusiness Equity Strategy
Below we highlight our core views for equity performance in each agricultural sub-sector
that we cover:
Livestock companies will generally benefit from lower input costs. Share price
performance of each company will greatly depend on individual growth strategies.
We have a neutral view of the performance of sugar companies as sugar and oil prices
will remain low over H115.
We are particularly bullish on downstream dairy companies due to declining input
costs and strong global growth.
Chocolate companies will post weaker results over 2015, as the price of cocoa will
remain elevated and consumption growth will slow in Europe.
Palm oil upstream players will outperform their integrated counterparts as the
challenging environment for the palm oil sector will continue in 2015.
Ethanol companies will face poorer results in the wake of a fundamental shift lower in
global oil prices.
Grain handlers will benefit from low oil prices and high global grain stocks over 2015.
Agricultural machinery companies will record poor results over 2015, but there is
potential for share price appreciation from H215.
Seed companies will record subdued growth for 2015, but top- and bottom-line results
will be better than machinery companies.
Fertiliser consumption will be subdued over 2015, but higher prices could boost
margins for key players.
Com m odit y Pric e s T o H e a d H ighe r
The overarching theme for our agricultural commodity views for 2015 is for prices to
average higher than current levels over the year. We are more bullish than Bloomberg
consensus for all the grains we cover1, and generally speaking, we believe that softs
prices will remain weak over the next few months, before heading higher later in the year2.
The exception for this is coffee, which we expect to head lower over coming months, and
cocoa, which we expect to move higher in Q115.
https://bmo.businessmonitor.com/sar/reports/view?productid=4209& issue=20150123
11-02-2015
Page 2 of 15
Subdue d Gra ins Pric e s Ove r T he Y ea r

S&P GSCI Grains Index (monthly chart)
Source: Bloomberg
K e y Globa l T he m e s
We have outlined our core global beliefs and themes for 2015 in our December 2014
Global Assumptions Piece3.
Global GDP will expand from 2.8% in 2014 to 3.1% in 2015.
Brent crude prices will remain low over the year, averaging USD55/bbl in 2015.
The US dollar will strengthen against most major currencies over the year and we
expect ongoing weakness in the yen and euro.
We are below consensus on US GDP growth in 2015, but still expect growth to
accelerate to 2.7%.
Argentina and Russia will enter into recession in 2015, while Brazil will record weak
growth of just 0.6%.
We believe that Chinese economic growth will continue to slow.
Ne w Era For Oil

Front-Month Brent Crude (USD/bbl, monthly chart)
Source: Bloomberg
The performances of agricultural sub-sectors will fundamental vary over 2015, based on
our core global, commodity and agribusiness themes for the year. In this article we
analyse each of the ten main sectors we cover in the sphere, and give our outlook on
likely performance for the year.
Sub-Se c t or Out look : Live st oc k
Livestock companies will generally benefit from lower input costs. Share price
11-02-2015
Page 3 of 15
performance of each company will greatly depend on individual growth strategies.

Core assumptions:
Grain prices will remain weak by historic standards across 2015 and will average
similar levels y-o-y. We expect prices to increase from current levels and are above
consensus on all grain prices for the year.
US prices of cattle and pork will not reach the highs recorded in H214.
Core risks:
Grain prices could prove to be weaker than we expect over 2015, which will be bullish
for livestock companies.
A major disease outbreak, as witnessed in 2014 in the US pork sector, could limit
supply and cause a rapid increase in prices.
Livestock producers will benefit from lower input costs owing to weak grain prices relative
to levels over the last few years (especially soybean), as well as low oil prices across
2015. US retail prices are also high, while the price of live and feeder cattle have
somewhat moderated over the last few months. Lower input costs and the high price of
retail meat prices will benefit livestock producers.
There will be mixed performance across livestock companies, largely dependent on
relative weightings to the core meat segments of poultry, pork and beef. With a US focus,
poultry divisions are likely to see continued EBITDA growth as grain prices remain low.
Beef EBITDA margins are likely to remain poor relative to other divisions over the coming
quarters before improving towards 2016 on the back of US herd rebuilding. Pork margins
will also improve; we expect lean hog prices to ease over the coming months as US-based
disease concerns subside. Between May and August 2014, we held an outperformance
view on US poultry companies relative to diversified meat packers, which we closed with a
gain of 15.3%. We believe that performance across sub-sectors will now be more even, as
prices of cattle and pigs have declined substantially since peaking in Q314.
Given the highly consolidated nature of the global livestock sector, we believe that the
best performing companies in the sphere will be those that make the most of efficiency
gains, implement effective downstream expansion strategies, or expand into new fastgrowing markets, most notably emerging Asia. Downstream expansion is a key theme
across major meat producers, having been demonstrated on a global stage following
T yson Foods' acquisition battle with poultry rival Pilgrim 's Pride for H illshire Bra nds.
Tyson ended up paying an almost 70% premium for Hillshire4.
Another key theme that we believe will have a major impact on the share price
performances of global meat companies is geographic expansion. Indeed, we hold a
bullish view on Thai livestock producer Cha roe n Pok pha nd Foods in large part due to
the company's strong presence and expansion projects in key developing countries such
as China, Vietnam and Laos5. Asia will be one of the key markets for livestock demand
going forward. In particular, we forecast average per capita regional meat consumption
(including beef, poultry and pork) to show the second strongest growth globally behind
Africa. China in particular is a growing segment for the company's exports and we see
potential for this to continue over the long term as we are expecting China to become a
net meat importer over the coming years.
11-02-2015
Page 4 of 15
Asia n Count rie s Lea d T he Way

Select Countries - Poultry Consumption Growth (% chg y-o-y)
e/f= BMI estimate/forecast. Sources: USDA, BMI
Sub-Se c t or Out look : Suga r

We have a neutral view on sugar companies as sugar and oil prices will remain low
over H115.
Core assumptions:
Sugar prices to remain weak over H115 before heading higher in H215. Sugar will
average USc16.75/lb over 2015.
Oil prices will remain weak but will not remain below USD40/bbl for a considerable
length of time. The competitiveness of ethanol will be damaged.
Profitability concerns to remain among global sugar mills over 2015, but to improve in
coming years.
Core risks:
Major downside potential to sugar prices if oil and the Brazilian real depreciates
further than we expect.
The prospects for sugar companies around the world are mixed, though most will
continue to be hurt by the continued weakness in sugar prices, as well as the recent steep
fall in oil prices which will continue to reduce the competitiveness of ethanol. We
therefore expect companies in this sector to underperform the general agribusiness
sphere over the coming months, though believe that profitability issues currently faced by
sugar mills across the globe will peak in 2015, and that earnings will improve thereafter6,7.
We base this view on our belief that global sugar prices will rise and oil prices will
stabilise from mid-2015, improving earnings.
11-02-2015
Page 5 of 15
USc 1 4 .00 -1 6.0 0 /lb Ra nge Ahea d

Front-Month ICE Sugar, USc/lb (weekly chart) & RSI (below)
Source: BMI, Bloomberg
Indeed, in November 2014 we removed our long-running view that Brazilian sugar and
ethanol firm S o M a rt inho would outperform the country's Bovespa index. We removed
this view despite BM I 's poor macroeconomic outlook for Brazil and our belief that the
Bovespa index would suffer as a result8. Similarly, we hold a bearish view on Thai sugar
company K hon K a e n Suga r I ndust rie s (KSL) and expect the company to perform in
line with the country's SET Index, for which we also hold a bearish view 9.
Nevertheless, we believe that So Martinho will outperform European sugarcane refiners
such as Sue dzuc k e r and T a t e & Lyle 10. We hold this view given the subdued outlook
for European sugarcane refiners, as import duties on sugarcane will remain from 2017,
despite the abolition of sugar beet production quotas in the EU at this time. Sugar derived
from sugarcane will become less competitive relative to that derived from sugar beet.
Sub-Se c t or Out look : Da iry
Bullish on downstream dairy companies due to declining input costs and strong
global growth.
Core assumptions:
Milk prices will remain around current levels and are unlikely to depreciate
considerably further.
Global growth will remain strong for dairy products, particularly in emerging markets
and emerging Asia.
Core risks:
Milk prices could deteriorate further, which would boost dairy companies' margins.
Weaker economic growth in emerging markets (particularly China) could weigh on
dairy consumption.
We are particularly positive on the prospects of dairy companies over the coming months
and hold two bullish views on dairy companies in our Sector Strategy Table. The first of
these is on outperformance of an equally weighted basket of 14 dairy companies against
the Bloomberg Food Index, which we initiated on February 7 2014 and is currently up by
7.1%. Our second dairy view is the outperformance of Canadian dairy firm Sa put o relative
to the S&P/Toronto Stock Exchange Composite Index, initiated on October 8 2014 and
currently up by 6.8%. Over the next year, downstream dairy companies will particularly
benefit from lower milk prices, which will boost margins. Better economic growth
prospects in developed markets are also likely to boost demand from consumers in such
countries.
11-02-2015
Page 6 of 15
M ilk Will St a y Low Ove r Com ing M ont hs

Third-Month Class III CME Milk (USD/cwt, weekly chart)
Source: Bloomberg
We believe that standout global demand growth in dairy products will come from
emerging Asia countries, as incomes rise, safety standards increase and the taste for
dairy products develops. There are a limited number of publicly traded Western
companies with a growth focus on emerging Asian countries, though Saputo represents
one such company. Saputo acquired Australian dairy firm Wa rrna m bool Che e se &
But t e r in April 2014, which has strong trade links with countries such as China and
Vietnam. We expect Saputo to increase its exposure to emerging markets over the coming
years11.
Sub-Se c t or Out look : Choc ola t e
Chocolate companies will post weaker results over 2015, as the price of cocoa will
remain relatively high and consumption growth will slow in Europe.
Core assumptions:
Cocoa prices will remain elevated over 2015, averaging GBP2,000/tonne over the year.
European demand growth will weaken over 2015 and subsequent years.
Core risks:
Cocoa prices could appreciate significantly on the back of poor weather or regional
political events, which would lead to a reduction in margins for grinders.
Chocolate companies will post weaker year-on-year (y-o-y) results over 2015, as the price
of cocoa will remain relatively high and consumption growth will slow in Europe. We
currently hold a bullish cocoa view in our Commodities Strategy Table, which we initiated
on December 8 2014 and which is currently up by 5.7% as of the time of writing. We
believe that cocoa prices will remain elevated over 2015, which will ultimately lead to
lower margins for chocolate companies.
Cocoa demand in Europe, globally the most important region regarding chocolate
consumption, will decline over the next few years. European consumption growth will be
weak due to base effects. Indeed, Q414 cocoa grindings from Europe came in significantly
lower year-on-year, by 7.4%, with some of the lowest growth since 2000.
11-02-2015
Page 7 of 15
We a k est I n Over A De c ade

Europe - y-o-y Growth In Cocoa Grindings For Q4 Only (%)
Sources: BMI, ECA
While many cocoa companies are focussing on emerging Asia as high growth markets, we
believe these markets will remain largely insignificant over the next several years, as
absolute chocolate consumption is very low. Swiss producer Ba rry Ca lle ba ut , for
example, continues to expand capacity in the region. The company indicated recently that
it invested in a new cocoa factory in Makassar (Indonesia) in collaboration with local
partner PT Com e x t ra M a jora . The company also relocated some of its facilities in Japan
into much bigger factories near Tokyo. Moreover, Barry Callebaut continues to push
investment in capacity in Latin America (mainly in Mexico and Chile) and in Asia Minor
with a chocolate factory in Turkey12.
One more important note regards the recent appreciation of the Swiss franc, which rose
significantly on January 15 as the Swiss central bank removed its exchange rate cap.
Strength in the franc will decrease the competitiveness of exports, though more
importantly will negatively impact on results from Swiss companies such as Barry
Callebaut, Lindt a nd Sprungli and N e st l .
Sub-Se c t or Out look : Pa lm Oil
Palm oil upstream players will outperform their integrated counterparts as the
challenging environment for the palm oil sector will continue in 2015.
Core assumptions:
Palm oil prices will remain weak over the year.
Overcapacity in the refining segment will continue to weaken profitability in the
downstream sector in 2015.
Soybean prices will pick up from current levels, pressuring soybean crush margins in
China. Meat and soy oil consumption will slow down in China.
Core Risks:
Unfavourable weather would send palm oil prices higher than currently expected.
The operating environment for palm oil companies in Indonesia and Malaysia will remain
challenging over 2015, as the fundamentals for the industry remain unfavourable. Profits
will be limited by slowing sales growth and falling margins. We forecast palm oil prices to
be lacklustre and average lower over 2015, at MYR2,350/tonne, compared with
MYR2,396/tonne recorded over 201413. This will limit earnings growth in the plantation
business. Regarding the broader oilseed sector in Asia, the 2015 outlook for soybean
crushing margins in China is also dire14.
Upstream companies (such as Bum it a m a , Ast ra Agro Le st a ri and First Re sourc e s)
will fare better than their integrated counterparts, as lingering overcapacity in the refining
segment will continue to weaken profitability in the downstream sector15. For these
reasons,
Golde n
Agri
Re sourc e s,
Fe lda
Globa l
V e nt ure s
and
Wilm a r
I nt e rna t iona l 16, 17, 18, three integrated palm oil players, will record lacklustre performance
in FY15.
11-02-2015
Page 8 of 15
Dow nst re a m Ope rat ions U nde rpe rforming

Golden Agri-Resources - EBITDA Margins By Segment (%)
Note: GAR changed the way it publishes segmental results from Q114 and has not published EBITDA
margins for Q213-Q413. Sources: Golden Agri-Resources, BMI
Sub-Se c t or Out look : Et ha nol

Ethanol companies will face poorer results in the wake of a fundamental shift lower in
global oil prices.
Core assumptions:
Oil prices will remain low across 2015.
Core risks:
Grain prices could be weaker than we expect, which would improve margins for
ethanol producers.
Policy changes to ethanol blending mandates or production quotas in Brazil or the US
would have major ramifications for production.
The positive fundamentals which benefitted the ethanol sector in 9M14 have reversed and
we now believe that growth will be very weak for companies such as Gre e n Pla ins and
Pa c ific Et ha nol, both based in the US. Between July and September 2014, we held a
view on the outperformance of US ethanol producers against US oil refiners, which we
closed with implied gains of 20.6%. We opened this view given our belief that high oil
prices would encourage ethanol production and that the steep decline in corn prices over
2014 would improve margins for producers19.
11-02-2015
Page 9 of 15
Funda me nt a ls Ha ve Cha nge d

Green Plains Share Price (USD)
Source: Bloomberg
This dynamic has now completely changed. Oil prices have fallen by almost 60% since
June 2014 and are trading below USD50/bbl, the lowest since 2009. Ethanol prices have
similarly fallen, though the competitiveness of ethanol to oil has therefore reduced
significantly. Furthermore, corn prices have risen from their 2014 lows and now stand
around 15% higher than in October 2014. We believe that oil prices will remain weak and
expect corn prices to average higher in 2015 than current levels. This will translate into
weak results for many ethanol companies.
We believe the outlook in Brazil, the second largest producer of ethanol, is more positive
compared to the US. As a result of a fuel price cap in Brazil, ethanol producers have
operated in a tough climate for some years; a decline in the global price of oil will have
less of an impact on the sector than in other countries. Furthermore, ethanol production
derived from sugar is more efficient than from corn and the recent increase in the ethanol
blending mandate in Brazil will help ethanol production in the country. That said, export
demand for ethanol from Brazil will be limited, which will depress prices.
Low Globa l De ma nd For Et ha nol I m port s

Brazilian Ethanol Exports (litres mn)
Source: Bloomberg
Sub-Se c t or Out look : Gra in H a ndle rs

Core assumptions:
Grain production will be strong by historical standards in major producing states in
the 2015 calendar year.
Oil prices will remain low across 2015.
11-02-2015
Page 10 of 15
Core risks:
Grain production could be much lower in key producing regions for a variety of
reasons, such as lower than expected plantings or very poor weather.
Downstream acquisitions could be deemed to not provide shareholder value.
While we forecast a deep y-o-y decline in US soybean and corn production for 2015/16 (of
13.1% and 7.0% respectively), we still forecast the second largest soybean crop and third
largest corn crop on record for the US. High volumes of grain will benefit grain handlers
such as Bunge and Arc he r Da nie ls M idla nd (ADM). We also forecast a large wheat
crop in the EU in 2015/16 and the largest corn crop on record for China.
St ill A Signific ant Corn Crop

United States - Corn Production ('000 tonnes)
e/f= BMI estimate/forecast. Sources: USDA, BMI
A broad theme across global grain handlers is downstream expansion. Downstream

operations generally have much higher profit margins than grain trading, but attractive
synergy opportunities exist for both. ADM, for example, bought natural ingredients firm
Wild Fla vours for around USD3.0bn in July 2014. We believe that this will be an ongoing
theme over the next few years for upstream grain handlers, similar to upstream palm oil
companies20. Whether shareholders view such acquisitions as value for money will largely
influence share price performance.
Sub-Se c t or Out look : Agric ult ura l M a c hine ry
Poor results over 2015, but potential for share price appreciation from H215.
Core assumptions:
Argentina and Russia will enter recession in 2015, while Brazil will record subdued
economic growth. Credit conditions will generally worsen in these countries.
Core risks:
Grain prices could prove to be weaker than we expect over 2015, which will be bearish
for agricultural machinery companies.
Key international markets such as Brazil could record better than expected economic
performance over 2015, which would be bullish for machinery companies.
Agricultural machinery companies will continue to perform poorly over H115 and into
2016. Major machinery companies De e re and AGCO, makers of John Deere and Massey
Ferguson tractors respectively, have posted declining revenue since Q214. Both
companies have guidance for y-o-y revenue to decline at an accelerating rate over the
next several quarters.
11-02-2015
Page 11 of 15
De cline I n 2 0 14
United States - Farm Net Cash Income Growth (%)
Source: Bloomberg, USDA
Machinery companies will perform poorly in a context of low grains prices relative to the
last several years and increasing fiscal and economic problems in several major
markets21. In the US, reduced farm incomes are likely to lead to reduced revenues. Indeed,
the USDA forecasts US net farm income to fall by 6% in 2014, despite recording a larger yo-y grain crop in 2014/15. Sales growth in key international markets such as Brazil,
Argentina, the EU and Russia will also be poor. BM I forecasts Argentina and Russia to
enter recession in 2015, while economic growth in the eurozone and Brazil will be weak at
best. Growth concerns in these countries will weigh on the ability and desire for farmers
to purchase new machinery, while currency depreciation in key international markets
(most notably Brazil and Russia) will make imports more expensive.
We ak ne ss I n Sa les T o Cont inue

Select Countries - Tractor Sales Growth (% y-o-y)
Sources: BMI, Bloomberg
We believe that the results of machinery companies will improve later in 2015 and will
consider entering a bullish view on the sub-sector sometime over the year. In our view,
negative sentiment is at an extreme, while problems regarding economic and agricultural
sector performance in key markets are well-known. As said, machinery companies are
forecasting significant y-o-y declines in both top and bottom line growth over the coming
quarters. Valuations for agricultural machinery companies are also near multi-year lows.
Deere, for example, is trading at a price/earnings ratio of 10.2x, around its lowest since
2008. Such low valuations increase a potential bullish case towards agricultural
machinery companies. We are above consensus on grain prices for 2015, which suggests
we may expect greater share price appreciation in machinery companies over the next
year than expected by the market. Furthermore, access to credit in the US and EU will
remain ample over the next few years.
11-02-2015
Page 12 of 15
Ne a r M ult i-Y e a r Low s

Deere & Company - P/E & P/B Ratios
Source: Bloomberg
Sub-Se c t or Out look : Se e dm a k e rs

Subdued growth outlook for 2015, but top- and bottom-line results will be better than
machinery companies.
Core assumptions:
Grain plantings will decline in the calendar year 2015 in the Americas region.
Argentina will enter recession in 2015, while Brazil will record subdued economic
growth. Credit conditions will generally worsen in these countries.
China will not allow commercialisation of GM corn in 2015.
Core risks:
Grain prices could prove to be weaker than we expect over 2015, which will be bearish
for GM seed companies.
Policy in key Asian countries such as China and India towards genetically modified
organism (GMO) usage could soften, which would be bullish for global seed
manufacturers.
GM seeds companies will register lacklustre growth in 2015 compared to the previous few
years. This is primarily due to our belief that the area devoted to grains will decline y-o-y
in the Americas region, which is by far the most important for GM seeds. Furthermore,
declining farm incomes in 2014, coupled with currency depreciation in Brazil and
Argentina, will reduce the purchasing power of many farmers in the Americas region.
Nonetheless, we do not believe seed companies will record top-line growth as poor as
agricultural machinery companies, as farmers need to replenish seed stocks every year, in
contrast to new machinery sales which can be delayed.
Over the next several years, we believe that the Americas will continue to be the stand-out
opportunity for globally-focussed GM seed companies, as we see few growth prospects in
other regions. Combined, North and South America make up just under 90% of total GM
crop plantings. Africa remains a very small player and we believe this will continue to be
the case given the continent's inherent problems in the agricultural sector, coupled with
recent currency depreciation across the continent22. The outlook for GM adoption in
Europe has deteriorated in light of 2014 reforms, which allow individual EU member states
to ban seed use on no scientific grounds23. Public opinion towards GM usage remains
overwhelmingly negative.
11-02-2015
Page 13 of 15
Am erica s Dom inat es

Select Regions - GM Crop Plantings In 2012 (% of global)
Source: BMI, ISAAA
Outside of the Americas, Asia represents one of the best opportunities for growth for GM
seed companies. However, the adoption rate of GM crops in the region will remain slow in
the coming years, as many countries are still in the early stages of field trials, which
usually take years to complete. While we expect China to allow commercialisation of GM
corn in the longer term (five-plus years), recent actions by the government suggest this is
not likely to come in the very short term. We believe that India is unlikely to allow the use
of GM seeds for food crops over the next three to five years24. Furthermore, we believe
that Asian-domiciled companies are likely to take advantage of developing GMO policy in
the continent. This is especially true for China, where the government is trying to promote
home-grown research and GM companies.
On the company-specific level, we believe that M onsa nt o, the world's largest GM seeds
manufacturer, will underperform the US benchmark S&P 50025. In our view, the company's
expectation for double-digit growth in gross profits over 2015 is somewhat unrealistic.
Sub-Se c t or Out look : Fe rt ilise r
Fertiliser consumption will be subdued over 2015, but higher prices could boost
margins for key players.
Core assumptions:
Fertiliser application growth will be low due to a reduction in grain area planted in key
regions and low grains prices.
Application of nitrogen-based fertilisers is likely to outpace potash and phosphate
application.
Global oil and gas prices will remain low.
Core risks:
Greater than expected fertiliser application would be bullish for companies.
Potential risks particularly relevant to potash and phosphate demand in the form of
unforeseen mine closures and the re-emergence of the Belarusian Potash Company
for potash.
Global fertiliser demand growth will be fairly subdued over 2015, as crop area will decline
in key grain producing regions and the fertiliser/crop price ratio is high, making fertiliser
application expensive relative to potential revenue. Despite the potential for low revenue
growth, we believe that profit margins could improve for fertiliser companies on the back
of lower oil and gas prices26. In particular, companies with a high exposure to nitrogen
production, relative to phosphate or potash, have the potential to outperform. In contrast
to phosphate and potash fertilisers, nitrogen-based fertilisers are not mined, but created
via an energy-intensive process involving a number of gases. Lower oil and gas prices will
therefore be a particular boon to such companies27.
11-02-2015
Page 14 of 15
Furthermore, we expect nitrogen demand growth to outpace that of potash and phosphate
over 2015. Nitrogen-based fertilisers are generally cheaper and more available than potash
and phosphate, which will act as a boon in a period of lower crop prices and subsequently
lower farm incomes.
Fert ilise r Applic a t ion Ex pe nsive By H ist oric St a ndards

Price Ratio - Front-Month CBOT Corn/Fertiliser Average Price
Note: An increase in the ratio implies greater affordability of fertiliser relative to crop prices. Dotted line is
five-year average. Average fertiliser price is an equally weighted average of US Cornbelt Granular Potash,
North African Phosphoric Rock, US Gulf NOLA Urea and Tampa CFR Ammonia (all Green Market). Sources:
Bloomberg, Green Market, BMI
Foot not e s
1. Monthly Softs Strategy, December 10 2014
2. Monthly Grains Strategy, December 11 2014
3. Global Assumptions - December 2014, December 12 2014
4. Global Company Strategy - Tyson Foods, December 30 2014
5. Global Company Strategy - Charoen Pokphand Foods, December 1 2014
6. Bright Sugar Sector Outlook Several Years Away (Brazil), November 20 2014
7. Pricing Reform Necessary For Sugar Sector Recovery (India), November 26 2014
8. Growth To Disappoint Again In 2015 (Brazil), November 5 2014
9. Global Company Strategy - Khon Kaen Sugar Industry PCL, October 21 2014
10. Consolidation Ahead For EU Sugar Producers, October 7 2014
11. Global Company Strategy - Saputo, January 8 2015
12. Global Company Strategy - Barry Callebaut, January 15 2015
13. Palm Oil: No Significant Rally In Sight, December 5 2014
14. Lacklustre Meat Demand In China Limiting Soy Imports, January 15 2015
15. Upstream To Benefit From Modest Palm Oil Price Recovery, November 11 2014
16. Global Company Strategy - Golden Agri Resources, October 8 2014
17. Global Company Strategy - Felda Global Ventures, December 10 2014
18. Global Company Strategy - Wilmar International, December 18 2014
19. Monthly Company Performance, July 4 2014
20. Global Company Strategy - Bunge, November 19 2014
21. Global Company Strategy - Deere & Company, December 31 2014
22. Africa GM Outlook, December 18 2014
23. Europe GM Outlook, November 26 2014
24. Asia GM Outlook, November 20 2014
11-02-2015
Page 15 of 15
25. Global Company Strategy - Monsanto, December 22 2014

26. Global Company Strategy - Potash Corp, January 6 2015
27. Americas Fertiliser Outlook, December 12 2014
2015 Business Monitor International Ltd. All rights reserved.
11-02-2015

Agribusines Equity Strategy

Enviado por

Dados do documento

Direitos autorais

Formatos disponíveis

Compartilhar este documento

Compartilhar ou incorporar documento

Opções de compartilhamento

Você considera este documento útil?

Este conteúdo é inapropriado?

Direitos autorais:

Formatos disponíveis

Agribusines Equity Strategy

Enviado por

Direitos autorais:

Formatos disponíveis

Business Monitor International

You are here:

Reports & Strategic Content

2015 Agribusiness Equity Strategy

I ndust ry T re nd Ana lysis - 2 0 1 5 Agribusine ss Equit y St ra t e gy

Industry Trend Analysis - 2015

Business Monitor International

Subdue d Gra ins Pric e s Ove r T he Y ea r

Ne w Era For Oil

Business Monitor International

performance of each company will greatly depend on individual growth strategies.

Business Monitor International

Asia n Count rie s Lea d T he Way

e/f= BMI estimate/forecast. Sources: USDA, BMI

Sub-Se c t or Out look : Suga r

Business Monitor International

USc 1 4 .00 -1 6.0 0 /lb Ra nge Ahea d

Source: BMI, Bloomberg

Business Monitor International

M ilk Will St a y Low Ove r Com ing M ont hs

Business Monitor International

We a k est I n Over A De c ade

Sources: BMI, ECA

Business Monitor International

Dow nst re a m Ope rat ions U nde rpe rforming

Sub-Se c t or Out look : Et ha nol

Business Monitor International

Funda me nt a ls Ha ve Cha nge d

Low Globa l De ma nd For Et ha nol I m port s

Sub-Se c t or Out look : Gra in H a ndle rs

Business Monitor International

St ill A Signific ant Corn Crop

e/f= BMI estimate/forecast. Sources: USDA, BMI

A broad theme across global grain handlers is downstream expansion. Downstream

Business Monitor International

Source: Bloomberg, USDA

We ak ne ss I n Sa les T o Cont inue

Sources: BMI, Bloomberg

Business Monitor International

Ne a r M ult i-Y e a r Low s

Sub-Se c t or Out look : Se e dm a k e rs

Business Monitor International

Am erica s Dom inat es

Source: BMI, ISAAA

Business Monitor International

Fert ilise r Applic a t ion Ex pe nsive By H ist oric St a ndards

Business Monitor International

25. Global Company Strategy - Monsanto, December 22 2014

2015 Business Monitor International Ltd. All rights reserved.

Você também pode gostar