TO:

National Republican Congressional Committee

FROM:
Brock McCleary, President
Date:
September 21, 2015
RE:

Key Poll Findings New York Congressional District 21 Survey

Electoral Environment
Three-in-four likely voters in New Yorks 21st Congressional District say things in the country are on the wrong
track (18% right direction, 74% wrong track). A Republican candidate has a 10% advantage over a Democratic
candidate on the generic ballot for Congress (42-32%). Independents would prefer to vote for a Republican (23%)
than a Democrat (18%). A full 60% majority of likely voters have an unfavorable opinion of Hillary Clinton
(35%/60%, 45% very unfavorable).

Candidate Images
Republican incumbent Elise Stefanik has a strong favorable image among likely voters (55% favorable, 28%
unfavorable). Stefanik is also viewed favorably by self-identified Very Conservative voters (69%, 17%), Somewhat
Conservative voters (69%,16%), and Moderate voters (52%/33%).

Congressional Ballot Test
Q: If the election for Congress were held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for: Republican
Elise Stefanik, Democrat Mike Derrick OR Green Party candidate Matt Funiciello?
NY-21 Ballot Test
% of Vote
Elise Stefanik
51%
Mike Derrick
17%
Matt Funiciello
13%
Undecided
19%
Stefanik Job Approval
Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Elise Stefanik is handling her job as Congresswoman?
Stefanik Job Approval
%
Strongly approve
23%
Somewhat approve
35%
Somewhat disapprove
13%
Strongly disapprove
9%
Not sure
20%

Both Independents (51%/23%) and Moderates (55%/25%) approve of the way Elise Stefanik is handling her job.

Stefanik Reelect
A plurality of likely voters in New York CD 21 say Elise Stefanik has done enough to deserve reelection (43%,
32% someone new). Women and men both feel that Stefanik deserves reelection (Women: 43%, Men: 44%).

Stefanik Seen-Read-Heard and Information Flow
Half of likely voters in the district have seen, read or heard something recently about Stefanik (49%) and a
majority say what they have heard has given them a more favorable opinion of the incumbent (53% favorable,
27% unfavorable). Stefaniks information flow is a strong net positive among Independents (41%/18%).

121 State Street

Harrisburg, PA 17101

HarperPolling.com

info@HarperPolling.com



METHODOLOGY:
The sample size for the survey is 464 likely voters in New York Congressional District 21 and the margin of error is +/-4.55%. Cell phone
interviews were conducted using live operators and land line interviews were conducted using Interactive Voice Response (IVR). The survey
was conducted September 12-16, 2015 by Harper Polling. The demographic profile of the survey sample is as follows: Female 52%, Male
48%; Republican 41%, Conservative 7%, Democrat 30%, Working families 3%, Independent/Other Party 19%; White 87%, Something else
13%. The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.