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National Republican Congressional Committee

Brock McCleary, President
September 21, 2015

Key Poll Findings New York Congressional District 21 Survey

Electoral Environment
Three-in-four likely voters in New Yorks 21st Congressional District say things in the country are on the wrong
track (18% right direction, 74% wrong track). A Republican candidate has a 10% advantage over a Democratic
candidate on the generic ballot for Congress (42-32%). Independents would prefer to vote for a Republican (23%)
than a Democrat (18%). A full 60% majority of likely voters have an unfavorable opinion of Hillary Clinton
(35%/60%, 45% very unfavorable).

Candidate Images
Republican incumbent Elise Stefanik has a strong favorable image among likely voters (55% favorable, 28%
unfavorable). Stefanik is also viewed favorably by self-identified Very Conservative voters (69%, 17%), Somewhat
Conservative voters (69%,16%), and Moderate voters (52%/33%).

Congressional Ballot Test
Q: If the election for Congress were held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for: Republican
Elise Stefanik, Democrat Mike Derrick OR Green Party candidate Matt Funiciello?
NY-21 Ballot Test
% of Vote
Elise Stefanik
Mike Derrick
Matt Funiciello
Stefanik Job Approval
Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Elise Stefanik is handling her job as Congresswoman?
Stefanik Job Approval
Strongly approve
Somewhat approve
Somewhat disapprove
Strongly disapprove
Not sure

Both Independents (51%/23%) and Moderates (55%/25%) approve of the way Elise Stefanik is handling her job.

Stefanik Reelect
A plurality of likely voters in New York CD 21 say Elise Stefanik has done enough to deserve reelection (43%,
32% someone new). Women and men both feel that Stefanik deserves reelection (Women: 43%, Men: 44%).

Stefanik Seen-Read-Heard and Information Flow
Half of likely voters in the district have seen, read or heard something recently about Stefanik (49%) and a
majority say what they have heard has given them a more favorable opinion of the incumbent (53% favorable,
27% unfavorable). Stefaniks information flow is a strong net positive among Independents (41%/18%).

121 State Street

Harrisburg, PA 17101



The sample size for the survey is 464 likely voters in New York Congressional District 21 and the margin of error is +/-4.55%. Cell phone
interviews were conducted using live operators and land line interviews were conducted using Interactive Voice Response (IVR). The survey
was conducted September 12-16, 2015 by Harper Polling. The demographic profile of the survey sample is as follows: Female 52%, Male
48%; Republican 41%, Conservative 7%, Democrat 30%, Working families 3%, Independent/Other Party 19%; White 87%, Something else
13%. The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.