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Executive Summary
Utahns want clean air year-round ASAP so families can lead healthy, active lives and enjoy
Utahs beautiful outdoors, and so our economy can thrive. Utahns are willing to make
significant changes to achieve cleaner air and expect policymakers to do likewise.
Background:
Utahs air is clean much of the year, but we regularly exceed healthy air standards
during winter months and also at times during the summer.
Vehicles make up the majority of our emissions today, but homes and commercial,
office, and other buildings will be the overwhelmingly dominant sources by 2050.
Survey findings:
Seventy-five percent of Utahns chose a scenario that was significantly cleaner than
current federal health standards.
Utahns are willing to buy and drive cleaner cars, build significantly more energy
efficient homes and other buildings, and avoid wood burning during winter inversions.
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Table of Contents
Survey
Results
Executive Summary
Survey Methodology
12
21
30
38
Supporting Results
48
52
3
2013
Envision Utah and Governor Herbert invited
air quality experts from across the state to
join the Your Utah, Your Future action team
for the topic. The team has 37 members
from the legislature, industry, local
businesses and government, advocacy
groups, research institutions, and other
organizations. The action force is facilitated
by Envision Utah.
2014
The study concluded that Utahns value
clean air for their health, for the ability
to engage in outdoor activity, and for
other reasons.
2015
The action team worked for 18 months to research
and model what Utahs air quality future could be
like in 2050 under various assumptions. They
created three scenarios based on different
strategies and outcomes for air quality. Based on
the publics responses in the Your Utah, Your
Future survey, the action team will create a vision
for Utahs air quality future.
Peter Stempel
Kathy Van Dame
Vicki Varela, Utah Office of Tourism
Ted Wilson, UCAIR Director
Sarah Wright, Utah Clean Energy
In Need of a
Solution
Projections show that Utahs population will nearly double by the year 2050. The Your
Utah, Your Future survey was designed for Utahns to create a vision for the State of
Utah for the next 35 years.
Identifying the
Issues
Envision Utah performed a values study to understand what Utahns care about
regarding the future and why those issues are personally important to them. The study
identified eleven key issues: agriculture, air quality, recreation, disaster resilience, public
lands, transportation and communities, housing and cost of living, education, energy,
jobs and economy, and water.
Identifying
Choices and
Trade-offs
Four-hundred Utah experts worked in eight task forces to identify Utahs choices for
each of the 11 topics. The information and options in the survey were the direct findings
of these taskforces.
Choosing a
Future
The Your Utah, Your Future survey was designed to prioritize issues and their associated
outcomes in order to make strategic decisions for Utahs future. Nearly 53,000 people
weighed in on the future that they want to create in 2050.
6
The Challenge:
By 2050, Utahs population will
nearly double in size. Utah will not.
Economic
Development
Education
Disaster
Resilience
Agriculture
Recreation
Air Quality
Water
Transportation &
Communities
Public Lands
Energy
8
Goal
Actual
50,000
Respondents
52,845
Respondents
10
28,000
23,000
17,500
PLANiTULSA
(Tulsa, OK)
8,000
7,000
5,000
1,000
Heartland 2050
(Omaha, NE)
52,845
The original Envision Utah 1999
survey held the record with 17,500
public response for many years.
(Atlanta, GA)
Louisiana Speaks
(Southern Louisiana after Katrina)
11
Survey Methodology
12
Housing &
Cost of Living
Education
Agriculture
Air Quality
Transportation
& Communities
Economic
Development
Disaster
Resilience
Recreation
Water
Public
Lands
Energy
13
After making selections for each of the 11 topics, participants could study a
summary comparison chart and vote on their preferred overall scenario.
15
16
Process
Each part of the survey had different goals and provided important information.
1
SCENARIO SELECTIONS
Issue
Favoriting
Scenario
Vote
Goals
Issue Prioritization
TRADE-OFF SURVEY
Importance of
Outcomes
Trade-off Willingness
Survey Participation
OUTREACH SAMPLE
Utahns that heard about the survey through
Envision Utahs outreach efforts and went to
the website to vote
School outreach
Digital media
Partner organization emails and posts
Radio advertisements
News coverage
RANDOM SAMPLE
A statistically representative sample of
Utahns randomly sampled to participate in
the survey
Direct email
Physical mail (postcard invitations)
Phone recruiting
Survey Participation
n=52,845
RANDOM
SAMPLE
n=1,264
n=13,459
n=1,264
Participant Comparison
Issue
Favoriting
+/- 3%
Scenario Vote
+/- 4%
Issue
Prioritization
+/- 1.2%
Importance
of Outcomes
+/- 2%
Trade-off
Willingness
+/- 7%
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Please indicate how well you think Utah is performing on each of these priorities
using the scale where 1 means the state is not performing well at all and 7
means the state is performing extremely well.
(Source: Heart + Mind Strategies 2013 Survey)
Water
6.4
Outdoor recreation
Education
6.2
Air quality
6.2
Healthy living
4.9
Healthcare
6.1
Natural lands
4.9
6.0
4.9
6.0
4.8
Healthy living
5.9
Agriculture
4.7
Energy
5.9
Transportation
4.7
5.8
Healthcare
4.7
Transportation
5.7
4.6
Natural lands
5.7
Energy
4.6
5.7
Water
4.6
Outdoor recreation
5.6
4.6
Agriculture
5.5
Education
5.0
Air quality
5.7
5.1
4.1
3.4
Stress / Worry
People/Family leaving
Illness /
Lack of Healthy Living
Somewhat Agree
Strongly Agree
Completely Agree
15%
39%
Good Health
40%
94%
Pg. 25
Somewhat Agree
Strongly Agree
Completely Agree
21%
39%
Good Health
33%
93%
Pride/Future Generations
Somewhat Agree
Strongly Agree
Completely Agree
24%
32%
28%
83%
Lose Freedom
Somewhat Agree
Strongly Agree
Completely Agree
29%
29%
23%
80%
Vehicles
Industry Point
Sources
Area Sources
Utahns significantly
underestimate the
contribution of area
sources today and
overestimate industry
sources.
Perceived
Contribution (Mean)
44%
17%
39%
Actual
Contribution
57%
32%
11%
29
30
Scenarios Overview
All scenarios assume:
Federal Tier 3 regulations will eventually lead to primarily cleaner
(smog rating 8, 9, or 10) cars on the road in Utah.
The 2014 State Implementation Plan will reduce area source (homes
and other buildings) and point source (industrial) emissions.
Scenarios Overview
Area sources (homes & businesses) overtake vehicles as the dominant emissions source
450
400
Emissions (tons/day)
350
8%
10%
300
27%
10%
10%
9%
9%
250
9%
11%
200
56%
13%
13%
13%
13%
Industry
61%
55%
50
63%
25%
25%
Bonneville Trout
Allosaurus
63%
Non-Road*
Homes & Businesses
19%
0
Today's Emissions
Based on an AQI
reading where <35.5
micrograms of PM 2.5
per cubic meter is
healthy
56%
150
100
Compliance
with federal
healthy air
standard
Seagull
11%
11%
Sego Lilly
Quaking Aspen
*Non-Road sources include all engine powered devices that operate off roads, such as construction equipment, airplanes, lawn mowers, snow blowers, etc.
Vehicles
34
400
350
Vehicle Strategies
8%
10%
10%
300
9%
27%
250
200
56%
Compliance
with federal
healthy air
standard
Based on an AQI
reading where
<35.5 micrograms
of PM 2.5 per cubic
meter is healthy
150
100
Industry
55%
Non-Road*
50
25%
Today's Emissions
Bonneville Trout
& Allosaurus
Industry Strategies
35
Seagull Scenario
450
400
350
Vehicle Strategies
8%
10%
300
27%
250
9%
11%
200
150
100
Compliance
with federal
healthy air
standard
Based on an AQI
reading where
<35.5 micrograms
of PM 2.5 per cubic
meter is healthy
50
19%
Today's Emissions
Seagull
Industry
Non-Road*
61%
55%
Industry Strategies
36
400
350
Vehicle Strategies
8%
Compliance
with federal
healthy air
standard
10%
300
27%
250
13%
13%
200
Based on an AQI
reading where
<35.5 micrograms
of PM 2.5 per cubic
meter is healthy
150
100
55%
63%
Industry
Non-Road*
50
0
Today's Emissions
Quaking Aspen
Vehicles
Industry Strategies
37
38
13.1%
Water
12.9%
Air Quality
11.7%
Education
11.4%
Energy
8.6%
Agriculture
7.4%
Public Lands
6.5%
6.5%
Taxes
5.8%
Disaster Resilience
5.1%
Recreation
4.0%
Transportation
3.7%
Communities
0.0%
3.1%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
Share of Preference
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
Source: Survey Keeping in mind that between now and the year 2050, Utah will almost double in population,
please consider how important each of the following issues is to you. Considering only these four issues, which is
the Most Important and which is the Least Important as you think about Utahs future?
OUTREACH
n = 52,845
39
RANDOM
SAMPLE
n = 1,264
14.2%
Air Quality
11.1%
Water
10.9%
Education
9.8%
9.0%
Energy
8.3%
Taxes
8.1%
Agriculture
8.0%
Disaster Resilience
6.2%
Public Lands
4.8%
Transportation
3.6%
Recreation
2.9%
Communities
2.7%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
Share of Preference
Source: Survey Keeping in mind that between now and the year 2050, Utah will almost double in population, please
consider how important each of the following issues is to you. Considering only these four issues, which is the Most
Important and which is the Least Important as you think about Utahs future?
40
Issue-specific Scenarios
% Favorite Selections
75%
Seagull
19%
7%
Source: Website Select your favorite air quality outcome(s) from the 3
presented below for Utah in 2050. Consider the reduction in emissions
compared to today and whether we meet health standards.
OUTREACH
n = 52,845
41
All new buildings are 50% more energy efficient (in 2016 the legislature will consider
the newly proposed 2015 international energy conservation code)
All water heaters are ultra-low NOx (a gas that produces particulates)
Wood burning decreases by 75% per person
The new State Implementation Plan drives down industry and area sources
42
400
350
300
250
200
Smog rating 10
(electric car) has no
tailpipe emissions
150
100
50
0
Smog Rating
10
Importance of Outcomes
Average % Allocated
Reducing total pollution and its health consequences
30%
18%
16%
14%
12%
11%
OUTREACH
n = 52,845
46
5%
11%
The next time you buy a car, you would have to buy
one that produces less air pollution (higher smog
rating)
19%
8%
12%
7% 7%
12%
25%
12%
21%
13%
1
Not At All
Willing
47%
56%
23%
29%
41%
20%
3
Somewhat
Willing
26%
47
YOUR
YOUR
FUTURE. a number of
In addition to the specific results from
airUTAH.
quality
questions,
results from other topics show support for improving air quality.
48
82%
(QUAKING ASPEN)
(SEGO LILLY)
8%
(SEAGULL)
6%
(BONNEVILLE TROUT)
6%
(ALLOSAURUS)
Source: Website Select your favorite transportation and communities
outcome(s) from the 4 presented below for Utah in 2050. Consider
infrastructure costs, amount of land developed, and access to public
transportation/services/jobs/amenities.
OUTREACH
n = 52,845
49
23%
22%
18%
18%
10%
9%
OUTREACH
n = 52,845
50
Importance of Outcomes
Average % Allocated, n=4,924
22%
19%
17%
16%
15%
12%
OUTREACH
n = 52,845
51
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