Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
EXPLORATION
A GUIDE FOR AAPGS IMPERIAL
BARREL AWARD PARTICIPANTS
Provided by Royal Dutch Shell
WEST GREENLAND
TABLE OF
CONTENTS
Chapter
Page
Introduction 2
I - The Play Based Exploration Pyramid
11
19
39
45
51
INTRODUCTION
to our portfolio.
petroleum system(s).
Prospect focus
Play focus
Basin focus
Chapter I
Prospect focus*
Prospect
Portfolio
Volumetrics
Risk
Uncertainty
Prospect Image
Geologic Models
Geophysical Evaluation
Play Creation
Basin & Play
Evaluation
Play focus*
Basin focus
MISSISSIPPI
Plate setting
Tectonostratigraphic frame
Megasequences, Basin Fil
Regional maps
Data management
Mining legacy knowledge
fication
and prospects.
activities identified.
New Venture opportunity evaluation usually occurs
Basin Focus
the right basin, the right play and then the best
Prospect focus*
Play focus
An understanding of the petroleum system in the
Prospect
existing
Portfolio ventures, turning geological leads from the
Uncertainty
Prospect Image
Geologic Models
Geophysical Evaluation
play context.
Play focus*
Basin focus
Prospect focus
Most play execution activity is concerned with
Key Decisions
Prospect
Maturation
Volumetrics
play
inventory into firm, drillable prospects.
Risk
Plate setting
Tectonostratigraphic frame
Megasequences, Basin Fil
Regional maps
Data management
Mining legacy knowledge
Key Decisions
NV Opportunity
Maturation
THE FOUNDATION OF A
GOOD PROSPECT INVENTORY
of knowledge.
Prospect
COST
Play Segment - subdivision of a geologic play. Fields and prospects that share common geological
Play Segment
Play
belonging to a geologically related stratigraphic unit (eg - the Upper Jurassic play).
Petroleum System - a natural system that links an active or once active source rock to all of the geologic
Petroleum System
elements and processes that are essential for a hydrocarbon accumulation to exist in time and space
regardless of economics.
Where we know it
Risking
12
Assessment
Volume found in
Volume found in Play
Denition
12
What we know
Where we know it
CRS
Risking
Quantitative
Assessment
KM
0
12
B
12
1 Basinrock,
characterisation
5 Source
reservoir,
} }
Play
Denition
2nd
1st
3rd
(page 28)
8Mapping
Identify
plays
1B
asin characterisation
(page 24)
TERT
3 Sequence analysis
(page 17)
(page 12)
1st
SR
MATURITY
RES/SEAL
TRAP
2nd
3rd
4 Basin evolutionMapping
(page 13)
4B
asin evolution
(page 13)Source
7 Trap (page
distribution
16)
5S
ource rock, reservoir, seal
distribution (page 13)
reservoir,
5
rock,
seal distribution
1 Basin characterisation
(page
13)
2 Tectonostratigraphic
framework
plays
(page 17)
seal distribution
(page 13)
TERT
CRET
TERT
CRET
JUR
JUR
TRIAS
PERM
CARB
Assess
petroleum
system
6 Assess petroleum
system
(page 14)
(page 14)
DEV
(page 12)
5 Source rock,Identify
reservoir,
(page 16)
8 Identify plays
(page 17)
TRIAS
PERM
CARB
3 Sequence analysis
7 Trap(page
distribution
16)
7 Trap distribution
DEV
Basin focus
CRET
2 Tectonostratigraphic framework
Play focus
JUR
DEV
framework
(page 24)
TRIAS
PERM
CARB
(page 17)
seal
distribution
2 Tectonostratigraphic
framework (page
6 Asses
petroleum system
7 Trap distribution
12)
1 Basin characterisation
8 Identify
plays 16)
(page 13)
Assess petroleum
system
(page614)
(page
7 Trap distribution
3 Sequence analysis
(page 17)
2
Tectonostratigraphic
framework
(page12)14)
Basin evolution (page 13)
(page
(page 16
2 Tectonostratigraphic
1
Basin
characterisation
3 Sequence analysis
8 Identify plays
SR
MATURITY
RES/SEAL
TRAP
CRET
CRET
TERT
JUR
(page 14)
TRIAS
PERM
JUR
CARB
PERM
CARB
DEV
DEVTRIAS
6 Assess(page
petroleum
14) system
SR
MATURITY
RES/SEAL
TRAP
SR
MATURITY
7 Trap
RES/SEAL
SR
TRAP
9
MATURITY
RES/SEAL
distribution
TRAP
Chapter II
BASIN FOCUS:
THE FOUNDATION
The basis of Play-Based Exploration
Basin
10
Basin focus
Sequence Stratigraphy
Petroleum Systems
4D Basin History
Plate setting
Tectonostratigraphic frame
Megasequences, Basin Fil
Regional maps
Data management
Mining legacy knowledge
STEPS 1-3
Basin characterisation,
tectonostratigraphic framework
and sequence analysis
The tectonic setting(s) of a basin is a primary control
on structural architecture, stratigraphic fill, source
rock distribution, thermal history, and the foundation
for understanding petroleum systems, plays and
ultimately, prospectivity. All that follows in play-
Synrift
Post Rift
Oceanic
Continental
Pre-rift
11
STEP 4-5
STEP 6
be described.
seismic data.
Present day maturity can tell us the integrated
history of a source interval. On their own, however,
maturity assessments and maps can sometimes be
Middle Miocene
Middle
Miocene
structure &&accomodatio
spacespace
structure
accommodation
12
TERT
CRET
JUR
TRIAS
PERM
CARB
basin adequately.
DEV
SR
MATURITY
RES/SEAL
TRAP
first in place.
Reservoir temperature
Reservoir
temp.
Reservoir
Reservoirporosity
porosity
Maturity
Maturity(VRE)
(VRE)
Oil flux
ux(today)
(today)
13
STEP 7
Trap distribution
Palinspastic reconstructions (opposite) can provide
Mini Basin
5-10 /1000km2
12 - 2
14
-4
9-0
10 - 2
14 - 4
Fold/Thrust Belts
5-7/1000km2
5-0
Line of section
14
NE
Today
STEP 8
Identify plays
What plays are present in the petroleum system?
Thrustbelt E
15
Chapter III
PLAY FOCUS
In the basin focus identify plays leads us into the
next level of the PBE pyramid - Play Focus.
Play Focus Workflow
Play Play
Definition
Defenition
16
Play focus
What
know
What
weweknow
Where we
we know
know itit
Where
Play Quantification
FSD Analogues
Lead density
CRS CRS
Risking
Risking
Lead
Portfolio
Quantitative
Quantitive
Assessment
Asessment
Play Mapping,
CRS Mapping, uncertainty
Exploration history
Plays Studied:
Upper
Brookian
Lower
Brookian
Kamik/LCU
Beaufortian
Sadlerochit
Lisbourne/
Endicott
17
a younger source),
geological model.
KM
0
play 1
play 2
MFS
Shelf
B.G. Slope
Prodelta shale
Toe of Slope
18
play 3
MFS
MFS
MFS
12
Extent of
Traps
Extent of
regional top
steal
PLAY
SWEETSPOT
Reservoir
Extent
Extent of
Mature
source rock
What we know
Where we know it
CRS
Risking
Quantitative
Assessment
19
work.
Is a well a
play test?
Was it a technical
success or failure?
If a failure why?
Building Play Element and Play Summary maps Two factors should be balanced:
technical successes?
20
Focus map
ARC Gis/
Openworks Concessions
Partnerships
Source and Maturity Map
SR Quality
Flux map
Temperature
Slicks/seeps
Fetch map
Inversion Timing
Top Seal Isopach Map
TA I Fault seal risk
TAII Pressure Analysis
Timing
Reservoir Facies Map
Isopach
Porosity/PermNet/
Net to Gross
AVO/
Amplitudes
Provenance
amount of subdivision.
of success.
22
What we know
Where we know it
CRS
Risking
Quantitative
Assessment
STEP C:
Common Risk Segment (CRS)
mapping and risking
Typical CRS
Chance factor Maps
PLAY RESERVOIR
PLAY RECOVERY
SR + PLAY CHARGE
PLAY STRUCTURE
REGIONAL SEAL
PROSPECT RESERVOIR
PROSPECT RECOVERY
Prospect
PROSPECT CHARGE
PROSPECT STRUCTURE
PROSPECT TOP SEAL
Determine
confidence level
Assign
Play PoS
Assign ave.
Lead PoS
Perform the
reality check
lead PoS).
that work.
23
play analysis?
analogue data.
Extensive seismic
Mapped charge, reservoir
and seal play elements
24
KM
0
4
Shelf
B.G. Slope
Prodelta shale
Toe of Slope
Reservoir mylar
Valid play tests
12
Condence map
Total PoS
25
criteria
in a play segment.
Shelf
Slope
Base
of Slope
(salt)
5km
Mature SR
26
Very
High
High
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
very likely
e
likely
None
y
unlikely
Very
Low
very unlikely
Low
equivocal
.24
Medium
Exclude
extremely unlikely
Confidence/ Knowledge
Perfect
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
27
Composite CRS
Reservoir CRS
Charge CRS
Entrapment CRS
28
Play PoS
geological PoS.
Reality Checks:
29
Chapter IV
Prospect Maturation
SFR Maturation
Prospect Identification
Prospect focus*
Prospect level
Evaluation
5 Step
Prospect
Portfolio
After Act
Peer Cha
Volumetrics
Risk
Uncertainty
Peer/vol
Prospect Image
Geologic Models
Geophysical Evaluation
Early Ass
Play focus*
SFR Maturation
Prospect Identification
Prospect level
Evaluation
Prospect focus*
Prospect
Portfolio
Volumetrics
Risk
Uncertainty
Framing-
Prospect Image
Geologic Models
Geophysical Evaluation
30
Early Assist
Play focus*
Framing-Kick Off
risk elements.
Key Questions
Can the focal Play be succinctly described on a cross section ?
Does exploring in this Play segment have merit based on Regional Sweet spot
analysis ?
What geological aspects of the Prospect should be the main focus of the evaluation
work (I.e. likely failure modes) ?
What can we learn from the Exploration history to best augment the
evaluation and improve our understanding of the prospect ?
What does the history indicate as good analogues to use ?
Materiality maps
Play YTF, CSFs
Play Execution Plan
Well Plan
AAR
Multiple PBE products
Does maturing view of the Prospect reconcile with Play Segment Risking ?
Prospect Risking consistent with Play PoS maps ?
What phase of Play Creaming is the Prospect In ?
Does Prospect volume range fit the appropriate FSD ?
Is there likely material follow up to a well test ?
Does the Play and Play segment have enough running room ?
Does prospect test fit in agreed Play execution plan ?
Does well plan contain provision for key Play data gathering ?
Have well learnings been fed back to evergreen basin and play understanding ?
.5
.5
.3
.3
.5
.5
.3
.3
.2
.2
.3
.3
.5
.5
.3
.3
.2
.2
.4
.4
.4
.4
.3
.3
.2
.2
.3
.3
.4
.4
.2
.2
.2
.2
.1
.1
.1
.1
.2
.2
.1
.1
.1
.1
.1
.1
31
follow-up.
??
P1
Cumulative Probability
Lead-4a(3)
Lead-4b
Lead-2 (3)
Lea d-3
P90
1
10
Field Size
100mmboe
1000
Estimated Prospect MSVs plotted on appropriate FSD for the Play as a `reality check
32
P50
P99
Lead-1 (3)
P10
14000
Cumulative MMBOE
12000
Phase 3
10000
8000
Phase 2
6000
4000
2000
Phase 1
0.0
0
50
100
150
200
250
Discovery#
Phase 3 - Maturity
33
Chapter V
VENTURE EVALUATION
Good PBE Practice involves building first the basin,
then play and then the prospect understanding.
Exploration strategy, planning and execution are
therefore based on the foundation of understanding the
plays in a venture.
Prospect focus
Play focus
34
Basin focus
Second Tier
Dont Do It !
35
Use (depedent) Play Pos CRS and Materiality maps to assess zone of influence from a possible well test.
0.9 Ave Play Pos
PoS Uplift
throughout Play
segment due to
reduction
of dependent
Play Risk
Targeting Play
Segment with
Running Room
Use YTF and Materiality
maps to assess Play
Segment Volume Prize
150 MSV
45 EXP
180
45
150
45
100
20
400
50
120
15
100
10
36
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
PoS %
se 3
Pha
Ph
as
e
Play UR mmboe
B
C
Phase 1
Time/Discovery #
37
elsewhere.
Year 1
+acreage
+acreage
38
Studies
seismic+
+acreage
+acreage
39
Appendix
Play Focus Workflow
40
Play
Definition
What we know
Where we know it
CRS
Risking
Quantitative
Assessment
Discoveries
1.00
1.00
Tertiary
Tertiary clastics
clastics
0.46
0.46
Play PoS
0.40
0.40
0.46
0.46
026
026
066
066
Tertiary
Tertiary clastics
clastics
0.59
0.59
032
032
0.66
0.66
Tertiary
Tertiary clastics
clastics
032
032
0.16
0.16
0.10
0.10
0.19
0.19
Total PoS
lead PoS
0.12
0.12
venture success.
41
PoS
volumetric assessment
0.25
0.2
Elements to be considered
the same.
expectation volumes?
0.15
0.1
0.05
500
1000
1500
2000
of data available.
Play with lead inventory and synthetic leads
15 Time
10
Horizon
Of the Answer
(Years)
5 -
42
lead inventory?
0 3D
Play-data
driven
# of well
tests> 15
Summed expectation
volumes
Analogue
driven
# of well
tests< 16
Statistically
insignificant
play data->
Perfect Match
10000
Volume Discovered
100
100.0
1000.0
100000.0
Predicted Volume
43
3 basic components.
Play Potential
Total POS
(Play POS x Avg. Lead POS)
Lead count
Probability
Volume
44
P99 = 0.03
P90 = 0.2
P50 = 2.4
Mean = 9.3
P10 = 25.3
P1 = 175.5
Cumulative Probability
P1
P10
P10
Mean
P50
P50
P90
P90
0.01
0.1
1.0
10.0
100.0
1,000.0
45
2nd
3rd
FSD Chart
P1
P10
2nd third
1st third
P50
mean
mean
P99
mean
P90
10
100
1000
46
URData
Current Fields FSD Fit
P1
P 1
P1
P10
P 5
YTF FSD
P10
P 10
P 20
P 30
P50
P 40
Present-day FSD
Volume (Billion BOE)
12
P90
P90
P99
Ultimate FSD
P99
10
1.
10
10
100
P 60
P 70
P 80
Creaming Curve
P 90
P 95
4
2
0.0
0.1
calibration area.
P 50
P50
99
PresentPDay
1
26
51
76
Number of Tests
1000
101
normal distribution).
126
10000
Volume (MMBOE)
Calibration area
Unidentied
Prospects
Fields
Volume Classes
47
P1
Play PoS
= 1.0
Mean FSD
= 13
= 25
2.0
6
.6
Truncated FSD-Curve1
Untruncated FSD-Curve1
P10
1.0
0.0
P50
-1.0
P90
-2.0
-
-3.0
-
0.01
Max
411.0
P10
154.0
Mean
41.2
P90
1.50
Min
0.1
10
100
0.20
1000
10000
Play PoS
= .71
= 30
Mean FSD
48
2.0
71
S . oS
Po ad P
y
e
Pla g. L
Av
2
.3
Truncated FSD-Curve1
Untruncated FSD-Curve1
P10
1.0
0.0
P50
-1.0
P90
-2.0
-
-3.0
-
0.01
Max
375.0
P10
66.0
Mean
25.0
P90
1.50
Min
0.1
10
100
0.10
1000
10000
Scope with play success = .32 lead PoS x 30 leads =10 successes
GEPI venture success simulation output map from BPA (segment colours
49
NOTES
50
NOTES
51
Designed and Produced by: 896656 - Graphics, Media and Publishing Services (GMP), Rijswijk.