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Among the important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are:
changes in liquefied natural gas ( LNG) floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) and floating liquefaction natural gas vessel
(FLNGV) market trends, including charter rates, ship values and technological advancements; changes in our ability to retrofit
vessels as FSRUs and FLNGVs, our ability to obtain financing for such conversions on acceptable terms or at all, and the timing of
the delivery and acceptance of such converted vessels; changes in the supply of or demand for LNG or LNG carried by sea; a
material decline or prolonged weakness in rates for LNG carriers or FSRUs; changes in trading patterns that affect the opportunities
for the profitable operation of LNG carriers, FSRUs or FLNGVs; changes in the supply of or demand for natural gas generally or in
particular regions; changes in our relationships with major chartering parties; changes in the availability of vessels to purchase, the
time it takes to construct new vessels, or vessels useful lives; failure of shipyards to comply with delivery schedules on a timely basis
or at all; our ability to integrate and realize the benefits of acquisitions; changes in our ability to sell vessels to Golar LNG Partners
LP, or Golar Partners; changes in our relationship with Golar Partners; changes to rules and regulations applicable to LNG carriers,
FSRUs or FLNGVs; actions taken by regulatory authorities that may prohibit the access of LNG carriers, FSRUs or FLNGVs to
various ports; our inability to achieve successful utilization of our expanded fleet and inability to expand beyond the carriage of LNG;
increases in costs including among other things crew wages, insurance, provisions, repairs and maintenance; changes in general
domestic and international political conditions, particularly where we operate; changes in our ability to obtain additional financing on
acceptable terms or at all; and other factors listed from time to time in reports or other materials that we have filed with the Securities
and Exchange Commission, including our most recent annual report on Form 20-F. Unpredictable or unknown factors also could
have material adverse effects on forward-looking statements.
GoFLNG:
- substantially lower unit cost liquefaction
- shorter lead-times
Production &
Liquefaction
Shipping
Regasification
Power generation
LNG Midstream
FLNG
LNG Carriers
FSRU
Golars Assets
The current revenue backlog for the Golar Group is $2.7 billion
Golar LNG Limited
Old steamers
2 units at 125,000cbm
Modern steamers
1 unit at 145,000cbm
Tri-fuel vessels
10 units at 160,000cbm
FSRUs
1 newbuild (5bcmpa)
6 units (2-5bcmpa)
FLNG
2 units (prospective capacity of
5mtpa)
500
South America
South & East Africa
400
North America
North Africa
300
Middle East
200
Europe
Asia Pacific
100
Source:
Wood Mackenzie.
2030
2028
2026
2024
2022
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
Production &
Liquefaction
Shipping
Regasification
Power generation
LNG Midstream
FLNG
LNG Carriers
FSRU
GoFLNG
GoFLNG Mk I
GoFLNG Model
GoFLNG value proposition:
FLNG Costs are less than half recent greenfield onshore terminals (Source: Arctic sec)
300
2500
Land based
Onshore
2000
FSRU
200
mUSD/MTPA
mUSD/MTPA
250
150
100
FLNG
1500
1000
500
50
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
0
1960
2020
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Floating infrastructure has and will continue fundamentally to alter LNG market paradigm
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Notes: Dotted lines represent capital cost range; assumes LNG delivery to Tokyo Bay Harbour (FOB Destination, seller pays for LNG transport); 25 year project life; Western Australia liquids yield of 15 bbl/mmcf and price realization of $102bbl.
Source: Company Reports, IHS CERA, RBC Capital Markets
Global liquefaction costs (15% pre-tax IRR, 20 years) range from $2.88 to c.$7.0 (includes OPEX).
Golars model can deliver superior returns at the lower end of this cost range with added benefits of:
Reliability: simple proven technology to mitigate unplanned outages and start-up delays.
Predictability: controlled environment of shipyard gives confidence on schedule and cost (relatively
inflation proof compared with in-situ LNG construction projects).
Financeability: Golar plan to execute projects without cumbersome pre-FID project finance overlay.
Speed of execution: permitting and construction timeline dramatically improved with floating asset.
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Why Africa?
West Africa offers significant high quality clean gas requiring little pre-processing
Associated gas is also plentiful Nigeria is flaring 428bcf p.a. (~9mtpa LNG)
Domestic prices significantly below international prices FLNG can add value
Incumbent majors are not pursuing fast track low cost solutions
Land based terminals in Africa require very high returns given execution, political,
inflation and currency risks. FLNG can mitigate some of these risks.
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Associated gas
Tolling fee
Shipping
Regasification cost
All in cost
Energy equivalent oil price
Implied USD/MWh
Power plant cost
Total USD/MWh
(USD/Mmbtu)
(USD/Mmbtu)
(USD/Mmbtu)
(USD/Mmbtu)
(USD/Mmbtu)
(USD/Boe)
(USD/MWh)
(USD/MWh)
(USD/MWh)
1.50
2.00
1.30
0.45
5.25
31.5
35.0
18.0
53.0
In power short countries (Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa) power prices tend to be
above USD150/MWh - gas can clearly offer superior economics.
..and before accounting for pollution benefit of gas over coal or oil fired plants.
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15
US$ millions
192
207
20
180
25
624
227
851
US$ millions
Fleet value (analyst estimates)
4,156
GMLP M-t-M
479
Adjusted cash
851
1,860
1,161
NAV
2,465
NAVps
26.5
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$1.200
$300
$1.000
~3x5x
$800
$600
$400
$1.200
$900
$450
$200
$250
$0
Conversion
Jetty etc.
All-capex
EBITDA Low
EBITDA High
Equals an EBITDA-payback
of 3 - 5 years based on 4
trains.
Average FLNG project longevity is expected to be between 5 - 20 years, an ideal asset for MLP dropdown
Each project is expected to require between 2 - 5 ships to transport LNG.
Potential dropdown valuation (based on past dropdown EBITDA multiples):
FLNG $3,000-$4,000mm.
Ships $750mm.
Potential dropdown value per project $3,750-$4,750mm.
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FLNG #
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Operator
Perenco
West Africa
Rosneft
Rosneft
Cedar LNG
Cedar LNG
Cedar LNG
Capacity (Mtpa)
Up to 2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.8
2.8
2.8
Duration
8 years
Life of field
Life of field
Life of field
Life of field
Life of field
Life of field
Potential start-up
2017
2018
2018
2019
2020
2020
2021
Tariff: USD4/Mmbtu.
Capacity: up to 2.8mtpa.
EBITDA: up to 450mn.
MLP drop-down: 8-10x EBITDA.
Value of ~USD4bn capex of USD1.2bn = USD2.8bn.
Current market cap is USD3.2bn.
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