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T
VOL. XXIV No.47

A TIME COMMUNICATIONS PUBLICATION


Monday, 28 Sept 4 Oct 2015

S
Pages.19 Rs.15

Will RBI cheer the markets?


By Sanjay R. Bhatia
Weak global cues saw the domestic markets correct during the truncated trading last week. Sustained selling pressure
was witnessed as fresh concerns of a slowdown in emerging markets (especially China) led to panic selling on Tuesday,
22 September 2015.
Although the FIIs remained net sellers in the cash segment they turned net buyers in the derivatives segment. Domestic
Institutional Investors, however, continued to lend their support and remained net buyers last week. The breadth of the
market remained positive amidst lower volumes, indicating selling in frontline stocks.
On the global front, worries about the Chinese economy and other emerging markets continued to weigh on the global
market sentiment. Crude prices remained soft on concerns of a weak global economy.
On the domestic front, the markets continue to hope for RBIs rate
cut announcement on Tuesday, 29 September 2015.
Technically, the prevailing negative technical conditions weighed
on the market sentiment leading to a selling pressure at higher
levels last week. The MACD, RSI and KST are all placed below their
respective averages on the weekly chart. Further, the Stochastic is
placed below its average on the daily chart. The Nifty remains
placed below all its key averages, the 50-day SMA, 100-day SMA
and 200-day SMA. Moreover, the Nifty's (50-100 day SMA, 50-200
day SMA and 100-200 day SMA) Death Cross breakdown
continues to hold valid. All these negative technical conditions
could lead to intermediate bouts of selling pressure especially at
higher levels.
The prevailing positive technical conditions, however, still hold
good and could help the markets witness buying support at lower
levels. The MACD, RSI and KST are all placed above their respective averages on the daily chart. Further, the Stochastic is
placed above its average on the weekly chart. The Nifty has formed a positive divergence pattern on the daily chart,
which still holds valid. These positive technical conditions would lead to regular buying support at lower levels.
The -DI line and ADX line are placed above the +DI line on the daily and weekly charts. The -DI line is also placed above
the 30 level on the daily chart but it has come off its recent highs, indicating that sellers are covering shorts regularly.
The markets are likely to remain range-bound and lacklustre until the RBI announcement. In case the RBI abstains from
tinkering with the rates, then selling pressure is likely to emerge, whereas a rate cut above 25 bps would cheer the
markets and the Nifty could move above the psychologically important 8000 level.
It is important that the markets witness buying support at lower levels and the Nifty continues to sustain above the
7788 level for it to move and sustain above the psychologically important 8000 level. If the Nifty fails to sustain above
the 7788 level, then a further fall is likely and the Nifty could test the 7422 support level and may even breach it.
A Time Communications Publication

In the meanwhile, the markets would take cues from the forthcoming RBI policy, Rupee Dollar exchange rate, global
markets and crude prices.
Technically on the upside, the Sensex faces resistance at the 26730, 27131, 28100 and 28578 levels and seeks support at
the 24892, 24206, 22277 and 19963 levels. The resistance levels for the Nifty are placed at 7940, 8000, 8065, 8191,
8315, 8458 and 8525 while the support levels are placed at 7788, 7540, 7422and 7122.

BAZAR.COM

Only the tough get going!


When the going gets tough, the tough get going is the age old saying and how true it is in such torrid and volatile times
at Dalal Street. If April 2015 was a cruel month, August 2015 was worse. The Indian markets witnessed the deepest
monthly slump since 2011 as FIIs sold the biggest monthly chunk of their holdings since 2008.
But some local fund managers defied the market and FII's logic and beat benchmarks with superior returns from April to
August 2015. They are the tough guys of this market. They did so by eschewing radical bets, risky, volatile sectors and
stocking up on consumer soft and technology stocks. It would be worthwhile profiling some such tough fund managers
who stand out and reveal the secret of their success.
In large-cap funds, the one who stood out was Pradeep Gokhale of Tata Pure Equity fund: A practical man with the
background of working in companies like Lubrizol, Tata International and Bombay Dyeing. Now with Tata Mutual Fund
since the last 11 years, he is putting
R E L E A S E D on 7th September 2015
the mix of his practical know-how and
investment skills to work. An absolute
10th Edition of Beat the Street 9
return of 3% in these months was
achieved by remaining underweight in
On 8th June 2015, we published the 9th edition of Beat the Street 9. Within just
banks much before the downturn
two months our 9 stocks have given blockbuster returns. Out of 9 stocks, 8 stocks
began. He dislikes PSU banks as in his
have given double digit returns in this volatile market.
opinion they may take long to recover
Stock
Recomm. Rate
Achieved Rate
% Appreciation
and focusses on consumer-led growth
Infosys
975 (ABP)
1144
17.33%
industries
like
auto
and
IRB
Infrastructure
228
267
17.10%
pharmaceuticals.
Bajaj Electricals
260
310
19.23%
Anand Radhkrishnan of Franklin India
Indian Hume Pipe Co
285
437
53.33%
Blue Chip Fund has 20 years
Dish TV India
94
122
29.78%
experience in this field, which
DCB Bank
125
151
20.80%
undoubtedly makes him the key
Sunil
Hitech
Engineers
193
352
82.38%
person in the Franklin group. Though
KEI
Industries
63
118
87.30%
not underweight on banks, his key
Idea
Cellular
175
186.5
6.57%
purchases were IT major Infosys and
In
just
8
weeks,
our
subscribers
have
earned
handsome
profit
in
the above stocks.
Pharma major
Dr Reddys
th
Laboratories. Yuan devaluation made
Now the 10th Edition will be released on 7 September 2015. To benefit from
these scrips perform better and
similar profitable ideas. Book your subscription now.
vindicated his call.
For more details contact Money Times. Subscription Rate: 1 Quarter: Rs.3500, 2
Anoop Bhaskar of UTI Equity: Earlier
Quarters: Rs.6500, 3 Quarters: Rs.9000, 1 Year: Rs.11000 Contact Money Times on
with Sundaram MF and now with UTI
022-22616970/22654805 or moneytimes.support@gmail.com
has in all 23 years experience in this
field.
Increased
exposure
to
healthcare, auto and cement in the last six months, realized consumer growth and pharma's export-led
success, underweight on banks remains the common denominator with all the three.
Large and mid-cap funds: Yogesh Bhatt of ICICI managing ICICI PRUD TOP 200 doubled his pharma weightage and also
increased I.T. exposure in his portfolio. By slashing the number of scrips to 30 from 45 also helped him optimise returns.
Gautam Sinha Roy: With 11 years of experience in investments and manning MOST Focused Multicap 35, he avoided the
troubled sectors and companies and went for growth stocks. He stayed away from Power, PSU banks and Textiles but
increased his exposure to refiners like HPCL and consumer stocks like Maruti Suzuki.
Harsha Upadhayaya: Now with Kotak and earlier with DSP and UTI shunned metals and commodity stocks and picked
up select banks, industrials, consumers and automobiles.

A Time Communications Publication

Mid-Cap and Small-Cap Funds: R Srinivasan of SBI Small and Mid-cap applies a bottoms-up approach to stock picking.
His selection of Atul, D Link, Relaxo, Techno Electric helped his fund return greater appreciation than his competitors.
Shreyas Devalkar of BNP Paribas identifies leaders and challengers in small sectors. Vatech Wabag, Welspun,
Ramakrishna Forgings made all the difference in his results.
Most Focused Midcap 30: Headed by Taher Badshah known in the market as automobile expert and the discoverer of
Hero Motocorp in its early days. His discovery of Amara Raja Batteries, Bajaj Finance, Max India, Ajanta Pharma helped
his fund outclass others in the same league.

TRADING ON TECHNICALS

Gap persists
By Hitendra Vasudeo
Last week, the
Sensex opened at
Last Close
26107.98,
attained a low of 25386.48 and moved to a high of 26339.48 before it finally closed the week at 25863.50 and thereby
showed a net fall of 355 points on a week-to-week basis.
A swing-bottom and a swing-top pattern were formed at 24833 and 26471 levels. The Sensex is likely to remain
range-bound between 24833-26471 levels.
The gap on the weekly chart in the higher range is at 26730-27131.
A pull-back is currently being witnessed, which could bring the Sensex back into the gap. For the time being, one can
expect a rise of the gap and can re-evaluate the scene later.
The pullback is likely to develop into a Wave x structure unless
a decisive breakout above the gap on weekly closing is
witnessed.
A pullback in the gap and a failure to sustain could result into
the opening of a new leg down of a-b-c.
Weekly Chart
Weekly resistance will be at 25863, 26339 and 26371, while
weekly support will be at 25386-24434. Volatility is likely to be
seen between 26471 and 24833. Directional movement on the
weekly chart may not be seen but a wild swing seen may be on
the daily chart on an alternate day basis.
BSE Mid-Cap
The BSE Mid-Cap index has support at lower band of 100009900. Overall, the Mid-Cap index will consolidate and move higher as long as 9900 is not violated.
An upside for the Index could be capped to 10930-11080. A rise in the Mid-Cap index will show stock-wise performance.
Strategy for the week
The gap of 26730-27131 is an opportunity to book profits, exit long and evaluate stocks in the portfolio.
Sensex
25863

Daily Trend
DOWN

DRV
26329

Weekly Trend
DOWN

WRV
26932

Monthly Trend
DOWN

MRV
26266

WEEKLY UP TREND STOCKS


Let the price move below Center Point or Level 2 and when it move back above Center Point or Level 2 then buy with whatever low
registered below Center Point or Level 2 as the stop loss. After buying if the price moves to Level 3 or above then look to book profits as
the opportunity arises. If the close is below Weekly Reversal Value then the trend will change from Up Trend to Down Trend. Check on
Friday after 3.pm to confirm weekly reversal of the Up Trend.
Scrips

VARDHMAN TEXTILES
AARTI INDUSTRIES

Last
Close

Level
1

Level
2

Center
Point

Level
3

Level
4

Relative
Strength

Weekly
Reversal
Value

Up
Trend
Date

941.00
493.10

Weak
below
910.0
460.0

Demand
point
918.0
469.3

Demand
point
933.0
483.8

Supply
point
956.0
507.6

Supply
point
994.0
546.0

73.3
72.5

921.5
440.4

18-09-15
18-09-15

A Time Communications Publication

WABCO-TVS (INDIA)
CEAT
DIVI'S LABORATORIES

7056.15
1271.00
1121.00

6700.0
1188.0
1065.0

6813.1
1207.7
1078.3

6943.1
1251.3
1107.7

7186.1
1314.7
1150.3

7559.1
1421.7
1222.3

65.0
64.7
64.5

6900.5
1193.8
1100.8

11-09-15
11-09-15
18-09-15

WEEKLY DOWN TREND STOCKS


Let the price move above Center Point or Level 3 and when it move back below Center Point or Level 3 then sell with whatever high
registered above Center Point or Level 3 as the stop loss. After selling if the prices moves to Level 2 or below then look to cover short
positions as the opportunity arises. If the close is above Weekly Reversal Value then the trend will change from Down Trend to Up
Trend. Check on Friday after 3.pm to confirm weekly reversal of the Down Trend.
Scrips

Last
Close

COROMANDEL INTERNATI
TATA MOTORS
VIJAYA BANK
HINDALCO INDUSTRIES
JINDAL STEEL & POWER

Level
1

Level
2

Center
Point

Level
3

Level
4

Demand
point

Demand
point

Supply
point

Supply
point

Strong
above

145.3
259.4
32.4
61.4
48.7

155.5
292.2
33.8
68.9
56.8

161.7
313.5
34.6
73.8
61.8

165.7
325.0
35.2
76.4
64.9

168.0
334.8
35.4
78.7
66.9

159.40
303.65
34.40
71.55
59.80

Relative
Strength

Weekly
Reversal
Value

Down
Trend
Date

21.09
22.13
23.62
24.07
26.72

167.25
325.11
35.06
74.41
61.95

07-08-15
18-09-15
17-07-15
14-08-15
14-08-15

*Note: Up and Down Trend are based of set of moving averages as reference point to define a trend.
Close below averages is defined as down trend. Close above averages is defined as up trend. Volatility
(Up/Down) within Down Trend can happen/ Volatility (Up/Down) within Up Trend can happen. Relative
Strength (RS) is statistical indicator. Weekly Reversal is the value of the average.
EXIT LIST
Last
Close

Supply
point

Supply
point

Supply
point

Strong
above

BHARAT FORGE

903.00

1001.20

1034.00

1066.80

1173.00

445.2

31.26

ISGEC HEAVY ENGINEER

4852.95

5120.88

5220.00

5319.12

5640.00

3440.9

32.08

ADANI PORT

301.80

320.96

327.40

333.84

354.70

211.8

38.29

PIRAMAL ENTERPRISES

856.00

868.41

888.00

907.59

971.00

536.4

39.15

SIYARAM SILK MILLS

952.00

973.93

998.00

1022.07

1100.00

565.9

40.02

Scrip

Demand Monthly
point
RS

UNITED PHOSPHEROUS

466.55

487.99

500.02

512.06

551.00

284.1

40.31

EMAMI

1096.00

1143.44

1172.00

1200.56

1293.00

659.4

42.21

GODREJ CONSUMER PROD

1176.00

1248.94

1279.50

1310.06

1409.00

730.9

43.01

BAYER (INDIA)

3717.00

3732.12

3761.50

3790.88

3886.00

3234.1

45.64

KANSAI NEROLAC PAINT

238.25

239.81

244.35

248.89

263.60

162.8

45.99

GLENMARK PHARMACEUTI

1007.00

1042.05

1064.00

1085.95

1157.00

670.1

47.23

DR. REDDY'S LABORATO

3972.00

4028.66

4082.00

4135.34

4308.00

3124.7

47.51

ASHOKA BUILDCON

168.00

168.46

171.07

173.69

182.15

124.2

48.19

NATIONAL BLDG. CONST

935.20

948.18

960.75

973.32

1014.00

735.2

48.33

HIND.PETR.CORP.(HPCL

777.00

782.53

793.50

804.47

840.00

596.5

48.92

ECLERX SERVICES

1591.80

1670.77

1700.35

1729.93

1825.70

1169.4

49

ORACLE FINANCIAL SER

3855.00

3859.86

3925.00

3990.14

4201.00

2755.9

50.77

DALMIA BHARAT ENTERP

647.05

652.89

661.50

670.11

698.00

506.9

52.19

PC JEWELLER

345.55

357.61

368.38

379.14

414.00

175.1

53.07

BUY LIST
Scrip

JINDAL POLY FILMS

Last
Close

441.80

Demand Demand
point
point

417.93

405.95

Weak
below

Supply
Point

Supply
Point

Risk
Reward

393.97

355.20

620.9

61.73

Monthly
RS

JINDAL POLY FILMS

PUNTER'S PICKS
Note: Positional trade and exit at stop loss or target whichever is earlier. Not an intra-day trade. A delivery based
A Time Communications Publication

trade for a possible time frame of 1-7 trading days. Exit at first target or above.

Scrips

ARMAN
GUJARAT FOILS
SBL

BSE
Code

Last
Close

Demand
Point

Strong
above

Weak
below

Supply
point

Supply
point

Risk
Reward

538556
531410
538520

138.10
51.20
19.45

138.00
49.75
18.10

138.10
52.00
19.55

133.50
47.10
16.95

140.9
55.0
21.2

145.5
59.9
23.8

*Note: Up and Down Trend are based of set of moving averages as reference point to define a trend.
Close below averages is defined as down trend. Close above averages is defined as up trend. Volatility
(Up/Down) within Down Trend can happen/ Volatility (Up/Down) within Up Trend can happen.
! Note: Momentum breakout trend of stocks value (volume*close) between 10-80 lakhs.
TOWER TALK
Asian Paints plans to invest Rs.2300 crore on a greenfield plant at Mysore in Karnataka to meet its long-term
capacity requirements. This augurs well for its share price in the long-term.
Dishman Pharmaceuticals has been licensed by Johnson & Johnson, USA, to manufacture a TB drug raw material.
Very positive news for its share price.
REC to enhance its presence in Green energy financing such as Solar, Biomass and Wind power. With superb results
year after year, this gem should be held for the long-term.
GIC Housing Finance is continuing its onward march. The Company focuses on Tier-II and Tier-III cities with
preference to affordable housing sector. Scrip could rise 50% in a year.
TVS Motor Company is likely to repeat its spectacular performance over the next few quarters. At current prices,
the stock looks attractive for buying.
Around Rs.1112, Emami looks a lucrative bargain. Buy for quick gains. Remember the famous brand name ZANDU is
part of it.
Sterlite Technologies is doing well and has acquired global software company Elitecore Tech, a profit making
company for last 7 years for Rs.180 crore. Buy for one year for handsome gains.
Dengue and Malaria are becoming uncontrollable. Mangalam Drugs Organics should post handsome growth
especially with the backing of the Bill Clinton Foundation. The share has nearly doubled after Money Times
recommended it a few months back.
Uncertainty in the market is taking its toll. But L&T Finance Holdings has the strength to withstand the pressure.
Tide Water Oil (India) has made an open offer to buy back its shares. Andrew Yule, which holds 26% shares in it,
may rise.
Ajanta Pharma plans to launch a few more products and the working is excellent. But for a 20% uptick in about 3
months.
On lower-than-expected profits in Q1FY16, Ricoh India share prices fell sharply. But considering the rising sales
and digitalization it may post a 55-60% rise in revenue over the next two years. The share must be bought.
Glenmark Pharmaceuticals will be in focus, after the launch of its anti-diabetic pill Teneligliptin in Pune.
Current value of quoted securities held by Summit Securities has crossed Rs.3000 crore for the first time. But the
scrip trades @ 25% discount to its recent high of Rs.390. Short-term target is Rs.450.
An Ahmedabad based analyst recommends to buy Himachal Futuristic Communications, Visaka Industries & W
H Brady Company.

BEST BET

RPG Life Sciences Ltd.


(BSE Code: 532983) (CMP: Rs.171) (FV: Rs.8)
By Amit Kumar Gupta
A Time Communications Publication

RPG Life Sciences Ltd (RPGLS) is a pharmaceutical company engaged in manufacturing and marketing of pharmaceutical
products. It operates through four business units, which include active pharmaceutical ingredients (API), Global
Generics, Global Formulation and Biotech. Its API product line offers a range of synthetic APIs in the general therapeutic
category to Europe, Latin America, Asia and the US markets. Its Global Generics division commercializes Finished Dosage
Forms in markets, such as North America, European Union and Australia. Its Global Formulation product line
manufactures and markets finished dosage formulation in domestic and other emerging markets. In the Biotechnology
space, the company offers oncology products through the fermentation route.
Over the last three years, RPGLSs promoters have considerably increased their stake in the company from 53.1% as at
31 March 2012 to 56.5% in March 2013, 61.4% in March 2014 and further up to 66.2% in March 2015. The promoters
bought another 0.6% in Q1FY16 through open market, increasing their stake to 66.8% as at 30 June 2015. The
continuous increase in the promoter stake shows their confidence in the companys future potential.
The company has a well-experienced management team led by Mr. C. T. Renganathan who joined the Board as Managing
Director in February 2015. He has 30 years of experience in the pharmaceutical industry and has previously worked
with leading companies like GlaxoSmithKline Pharma, Boston Scientific and Eli Lilly.
In 2013, the company sold its leasehold rights of 14,148 sq. metres of land in Navi Mumbai for Rs.76.91 crore to pay-off a
part of the companys debt and fund its expansion projects. RPGLS still holds about 34,483 sq. metres of land in that
location, which as per the old valuation deal in 2013 is worth over Rs.187 crore. This provides valuation comfort and
also serves as a trigger, in case the company decides to monetise the remaining land in the future.
Valuation: RPGLS posted improved results in the last 2 quarters. Its revenue grew 2.7% and 26.1% Y-o-Y in Q3FY15 and
Q4FY15 respectively. Its EBITDA margin also improved 10.7% and 12.7% in Q3FY15 and Q4FY15 respectively. Going
forward, new drug approvals, increase in exports and opportunities arising from patent expiries could benefit RPGLSs
business growth considerably. We advise a Buy on the stock with a price target of Rs.195.
Technical Outlook: The RPGLS share looks very good on the
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
daily chart for medium-term investment. The share is Particulars FY11
P/E
24.7
369.6
71.2
460.6
314.2
consolidating at 200 DMA support level. A close above Rs.180
P/BV
4.2
4.2
4.1
2.5
2.5
(which is 50 DMA) could take its share price to Rs.195+.
11
19.8
22.5
28
24.4
Start accumulating at this level of Rs.171 and on dips to EV/EBIDTA
EV/Sales
1.9
1.9
1.6
1.4
1.4
Rs.150 for medium-to-long-term investment and a possible
price target of Rs.195+ in the next 6 months.

STOCK ANALYSIS

G M Breweries Ltd: In high spirits!


By Devdas Mogili
Established in 1981, G M Breweries Ltd (GMBL) is a 34-year old Mumbai based company. GMBL manufactures country
liquor. Mr. Jimmy William Almeida is the Chairman of the company and the companys plant is located at Thane,
Maharashtra.
GMBL manufactures and markets Alcoholic Beverages such as Country Liquor (CL). It is the largest manufacturer of
country liquor in Maharashtra with a sizeable market share. The company markets its CL under the brand names of GM
Santra, G M Doctor, G M Limbu Punch and G M Dilbahar Saunf.
GMBL has a facility to blend and bottle both IMFL and CL. Although, the concentration has been mainly on the CL
segment due to competitive market conditions in the IMFL segment The Company has made impressive progress in the
CL business over the past five years. GMBL contributes about 20 to 25% of the total Excise duty for country liquor in the
whole of Maharashtra.
Performance: The Company posted excellent FY15 results recording a total income of Rs.309.7 crore with net profit of
Rs.18.63 crore, with an EPS of Rs.15.93.
Financial Highlights:
Particulars
Total Income
Total Expenditure
Other Income

Q1FY16
8462
6124
340

(Rs. in lakh)
Q1FY15
FY15
7567
30970
6799
27767
1
227

A Time Communications Publication

Int & Fin Charges


Prov for Taxation
Net Profit
Equity (FV: Rs.10)
Reserves
EPS (Rs.)

77
672
1589
1171
13.58

93
219
456
1171
3.90

Latest Results: In Q1FY16, sales soared 11.8% to Rs.84.62 crore


from Rs.75.67 crore in Q1FY15. Corresponding net profit zoomed
248.5% to Rs.15.89 crore from Rs.4.56 crore in Q1FY15. The
company recorded an EPS of Rs.13.58 in Q1FY16 as compared to
Rs.3.90 in Q1FY15.
Financials: GMBL has an equity base of Rs.1171 crore with a share
book value of Rs.107.77. It has a low debt:equity ratio of 0.25 with

357
983
1863
1171
11449
15.93

RoCE of 23.39% and RoNW of 15.48%.


Share Profile: The GMBL share has a face value of Rs.10 and is traded on the NSE and the BSE under the B group and
its BSE code is 507488 with its NSE Symbol as GMBREW. Its 52-week high/low is Rs.459.10/78.70. At its CMP of
Rs.441.9, the company has a market capitalization of Rs.516.92 crore.
Dividends: The Companys dividend-paying history is as follows:
FY15-25%, FY14-25%, FY13-25%, FY12-25%, FY11-25%, FY10-20%, FY09-20% FY08-25%
Shareholding: The promoters hold 74.43% of the equity capital while the balance stake of 25.57% is held by noncorporate promoters and the investing public.
Prospects: GMBLs products enjoy a good brand image and customer loyalty and the company enjoys a virtual
monopoly in the CL segment in the districts of Mumbai, Thane and Palghar. GMBL has a capacity to process 13.76 crore
bulk litres of CL p.a., out of which only about 45.43% was utilized in FY15. Thus, the company has tremendous potential
to utilize the remaining capacity by penetrating into the interior districts of Maharashtra and leveraging its brand image.
To overcome the problem of shortage, wide price fluctuation and heavy breakages in glass bottles, the Company has
started marketing all sizes of CL in PET bottles which has gained a wide consumer acceptance. In FY15, however, the
company faced issues with price fluctuations of PET
bottles due to increase in petroleum prices in the foreign
For the busy investor
markets. About 46.31% of the companys total
production and sale consisted of PET bottles. GMBLs
Fresh One Buy Daily
bottling lines are designed to handle both glass and PET
Fresh One Buy Daily is for investors/traders who are keen
bottles. In FY15, the company installed Unscramblers in
to focus and gain from a single stock every trading day.
all the PET bottling lines which facilitate direct feeding
With just one daily recommendation selected from stocks in
of the bottles on the line which in turn increase the
an uptrend, you can now book profit the same day or carry
output considerably. Since the past four years, GMBL has
over the trade if the target is not met. Our review over the
been using 180 Ml Glass bottles embossed with its
next 4 days will provide new exit levels while the stock is still
Registered Logo which ensures that these bottles are not
in an uptrend.
used by other liquor manufacturers. These measures
This low risk, high return product is available for online
have resulted in a larger inflow of recycled bottles,
subscription at Rs.2500 per month.
which has in turn helped the Company to cut overall
Contact us on 022-22616970 or email us at
costs of packing materials. GMBL has also put into
moneytimes.suppport@gmail.com for a free trial
operation a state-of-the-art fire-detection system to
cover the entire plant.
The management does not foresee any major threats to the companys growth and its market share or any technological
obsolescence for its products in the coming years. Its existing capacity will suffice the company's requirement at least for
another five years.
Conclusion: GMBL is a profit-making and dividend-paying company with excellent brand image and marketing
strategies.
At its CMP of Rs.441.9, it share price discounts less than 28 times its FY15 EPS of Rs.15.93 against its industry average
P/E multiple of 50+ indicating a tremendous scope for further appreciation. Considering its excellent performance, wellestablished brands, regular payouts and bright prospects, the share may be bought for attractive gains in the mediumto-long-term.

GURU SPEAK

No smooth sailing nowadays


A Time Communications Publication

The stock market lacks direction and is dictated by global cues. Punters, traders and investors are in a confused state of
mind and betting mindlessly on either side of the market without any conviction. They have no inclination of their own
nor do they derive any satisfaction after the stock prices hit a 9-month low.
This means that the market is nowhere bullish in calendar year 2015 as individual stock prices have
hit 52-week lows in some cases while a majority of them have crashed near to the 52-week low.
Only a few stocks tracked by a few entities are moving based on their inside information and
contacts at corporate levels.
Technical experts are placed in a very miserable position because whenever they turn bullish, a
storm is unleashed against their calls. Recently, they were carried over to bullish pastures when the
CNX Nifty inched towards the 8000 mark week before last ended Friday, 18 September 2015. No
sooner had they started issuing Buy calls at these levels, which were only marginally up due to the
US Federals decision to hold interest rates on 17 September 2019 and hopes pinned on the RBI
softening interest rates on 29 September 2015, the markets reacted badly on Tuesday, 22
By G. S. Roongta
September 2015.
This fall was triggered by global cues and both the Sensex and the Nifty lost all the gains that they had mustered in the
previous fortnight. The Nifty was back to 7700 and looked sinking deeper to 6800, which is a lower technical target and
also hinted by me in my last article.
This week the culprit was not China or its currency but hedge funds located abroad that sold heavily like basket sales but
did not find any big buyers to match them. The FIIs who had turned net buyers to the tune of Rs.768.30 crore on Friday,
18 September 2015 and worth Rs.154.87 crore on Monday, 21 September 2015, turned into aggressive sellers again on
Tuesday, 22 September 2015 with net sales of Rs.1052 crore, which was much higher than what they had bought
together on 18th and 21st.
The BSE Sensex pared 541 points despite the steady start by 100 points on Tuesday, 22 September 2015, but crashed in
the afternoon session on account of weak European markets and the impending expiry of the F&O segment scheduled on
Thursday, 24 September 2015, while Friday, 25 September 2015, was a market holiday on account of Bakri-Eid.
The benchmarks lost over 2% with the Sensex hitting an intra-day low of 25571 - a fall of 621.64 points but recovered
by way of short covering at closing bell to 25651.84 to close the day with a loss of 541.14 on a single day. This was
followed by the Nifty, which closed at 7812 with a loss of 165.10 points. This fall in the benchmarks dashed the hopes of
the technical experts who were hoping for a rally based on the RBI governors favorable pronouncement on Tuesday, 29
September 2015.
Although the Sensex recovered by 172 points to close at 25822.99 on Wednesday, 23 September 2015, followed by the
Nifty gaining 34 points at 7845.95, the gains were marginal in view of the F&O expiry of the September 2015 series,
which was anticipated to be volatile since the market is in the hands of bears.
Readers may recall my last article vividly focusing on several market issues, investors greed and fears, tempting
opportunities, role of FIIs and our markets being heavily leveraged leading them to volatility and excessive risks. Thus,
there is no smooth sailing whether you follow FIIs, punters, technical experts or fundamentals.
All the time, you will find yourself caught in so many woes and worries that are not easy to overcome. All this happens
quite suddenly and you cannot get out without paying a good price for your greed and try to make a fortune in the shortterm. This is exactly what is going on in the market. The unhappy state of affairs in the market whether on account of
FIIs turning net sellers or China slowing down and devaluing its currency or the refugee crisis in Europe or the crisis in
commodities and metals have all come together in calendar year 2015 as against phenomenal expectations of the
benchmark touching new lifetime highs.
If you recall, market pundits were talking of Sensex 32000 by Sept-Dec 2015 and 36K mark beyond March 2016. The big
bull in the market had even projected Nifty above the 1,25,000 mark beyond 2020. If the Sensex had to travel in such
geometric progression, then the sky is indeed the limit! Where have these fancy targets disappeared? None of the
analysts have come forward to explain how their fancy targets are proving elusive because we are in September and
December 2015 is not far away.
So while targets may keep on shifting, small investors who ventured into the F&O segment have burnt their fingers and
find themselves trapped financially. But this is not the first time as they find themselves at the receiving end of every
boom that goes bust. Whether it was the late Harshad Mehta led bull market on the liberalization of the Indian economy
or the Tech boom under Ketan Parekh or the Modi wave of 2014, the retail investor has been the ultimate sufferer.
Before that, retail investors were happy making investments based on company fundamentals and no other cues. Today,
it is all the other cues like FIIs, global markets, currency fluctuation, political intrigue, insider trading, price rigging,
rumors etc. that dominate while working fundamentals command the least weight. Is that not strange putting everything
upside down?

A Time Communications Publication

Under such structural changes anything can happen in the stock market as I mentioned in my last article you can target
Nifty 6800 or 9800.
Great Dhamaka Again!
Who knows? There
is
no
reliability
Roongtas Panchratna 7th Edition
which
one
will
happen first.
Buying prices are lower due to heavy market correction
Fundamentals, too,
Five Gems from five different sectors of Paper & Paper
have no meaning.
Products/IT/Petrochemicals/Finance/Textiles
You can get Rs.10
paid-up share with a
All Stocks are highly liquid
book value of Rs.600
All the five stocks have been beaten down heavily and bottomed out
for Rs.200 and you
Enough potential for growth
can get a Re.1 paidup
share
with
Possibility of giving 50 to 100% returns Y-o-Y
consistent losses in
Risk/Reward ratio of 1::4
the last 3-4 years at
Dont miss this issue!!!
Rs.120! There is no
pricing bar, no P/E
Have a look at the Panchratna performance given below:
ratio
benchmark
Issue
Date
Scrip Name
Recom.
High
% Gain
whether 6 times or
No.
Rate
achieved (Rs)
60, no book value
(Rs)
consideration
or
1
April 2014 Cheslind Textiles Ltd.
4.98
12.10
143%
merits
of
the
Katare Spinning Mills Ltd.
19.50
31.80
63%
promoters.
Trident Ltd.
18.80
49.50
163%
Investors
are,
Elecon Engineering Ltd.
36.75
97
164%
Essar Ports Ltd.
50.90
150.40
195%
therefore, at wits
2
July 2014
Hind Syntex Ltd.
14.01
18.75
34%
end not knowing
Suryaamba
Spinning
Mills
Ltd.
31.20
52.80
69%
what
to
follow,
Standard Industries Ltd.
20
30.60
53%
which has led to
Sarda Plywood & Industries Ltd.
18.85
70
271%
their
minimal
Dish TV India Ltd.
62.95
121.85
94%
participation from
3
Oct. 2014 Ashok Leyland Ltd.
41.10
99.50
142%
40-50%
in
the
Mangalore Refinery &
61.45
82.90
35%
eighties to just 8Petrochemicals Ltd.
10% nowadays. As
National Steel & Agro Ltd.
20.30
17.70
-13%
Landmark Property Development
5.24
4.99
-5%
such, this force is no
Company
Ltd.
major influence on
PVP Ventures Ltd.
8.32
7.84
-6%
the market today the
4
Jan. 2015
Mukand Engineers Ltd.
35.50
40.15
13%
market forces are
KEC International Ltd.
94.30
160.95
71%
distributed between
Modern Steels Ltd.
9.95
10.45
5%
promoters, FIIs, DIIs,
Suzlon Energy Ltd.
14.70
30.25
106%
Mutual Funds and
Jaiprakash Associates Ltd.
25.10
26.70
6%
HNIs. With just four
5
Apr. 2015 Stock A
88.05
148.30
68%
major participants,
Stock B
68.35
65.30
-4%
Stock C
56.30
61.40
9%
the market can run
Stock D
46.15
84.90
84%
with unreasonable
Stock E
54.30
74.60
37%
fluctuations in a
6
Jul. 2015
Stock F
61.05
85.40
40%
short time. What
Stock G
45.35
43.45
-4%
happened to Amtek
Stock H
8.15
6.64
-19%
Auto is an eye
Stock I
24.75
35.80
45%
opener as the stock
Stock J
35.40
37.90
7%
fell perpendicularly
In the current market, Panchratna stocks are a sure way to reap rich rewards.
from a high of Rs.260
The next issue of Panchratna will be released on 1st October 2015.
to Rs.42. Any retail
investor
holding
Subscription Rate: Rs.2500 per quarter, Rs.4000 for two quarters & Rs.7000 per annum.
such
stocks
in
You can contact us on 022-22616970, 22654805 or moneytimes.support@gmail.com
quantity
stands
A Time Communications Publication

ruined.
Earlier, wockhardt and now Metal stocks have been hit and eaten into investors wealth. Prior to that, the sugar industry
was ruined followed by the capital goods, hotels, fertilizers, infrastructure, power and textile all of which are in deep
trouble. On what basis is the Modi government boasting about the economy is improving when a vast percentage of the
population and employees attached to these co-industries are lamenting the situation?
Investors are, therefore, advised not to make a mad rush for stocks and be selective about fundamentally strong shares
without bothering about the short-term.
On Thursday, 24 September 2015 the markets ended weak with a cautious note. The F&O expiry in that day was settled
smoothly with no major impact on individual shares in the F&O section as the market fluctuated in a narrow range of
100 points. Roll-overs are reported to be 65% same as the past six months average. This gives the impression that both
the bulls and the bears have lightened their commitment since the market does not provide a definite direction.
The next figure for the market is the RBI policy on Tuesday, 29 September 2015, which is widely expected to result in 25
bps reduction interest rate and may provide some confidence to the market. If, however, Governor Raghuram Rajan
maintains a hawkish stand, then the market may go down by 300-500 Sensex points as most technical experts have
already calls for a downward in the near-term.
The BSE Sensex closed at 25863 up by 40 points and Nifty at 7668 was up 22 points while the bank Nifty was down at
17196. The Rupee was weak and Metal stocks weakened further.

STOCK WATCH
By Amit Kumar Gupta

Firstsource Solutions Ltd.


(BSE Code: 532809) (CMP: Rs.26.65) (FV: Rs.10) (TGT: Rs.35+)
Firstsource Solutions Ltd (FSL) provides Business Process Outsourcing (BPO)/Business Process Management (BPM)
services to the healthcare, telecommunications, media, banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI) industries. It
operates in two segments: BFSI and Non-Banking Financial Services and Insurance. FSLs product portfolio includes
First Customer Intelligence (the Company's flagship product), First Chat, First Smartomation, First Resolve and First WF
Suite. First Customer Intelligence is a customer interaction analytics solution. First Chat is an online customer
engagement product. First Smartomation is a process automation solution. First Resolve is a complaints management
solution. First WF Suite is a workforce management (WFM) solution, which consists of consulting services, managed
services and WFM capability development.
In the last four sequential quarters, FSL delivered (-1.8%) negative compounded quarterly growth rate (CQGR) in
revenue due to multiple headwinds of:(1) loss of an Irish telecom client (2) volume-softening in estate redesign by top
clients (negative CQGR of 7.5% in the last four quarters) (3) US telecom clients revenue shortfalls of around $13 million
to $15 million owing to volume softness in FY16 and (4) a ramp-down in the domestic business. Also, the one-off costs
and cost pressure from these revenue shortfalls resulted in flat margins over the last four quarters.
However, green shoots in the top client revenue downfalls seem to have bottomed-out and are expected to improve
Q2FY16 onwards. As indicated in the last quarterly con-call, FSL has signed a left-out deal with a commercial finance
company in the UK (existing client), which will contribute around $11 million in FY16, starting Q3FY16 covering almost
75% of its revenue shortfalls from its US telecom clients. The domestic contract negotiations coming up in the next 2
months are also expected to improve. There could still be some downside even though the ramp-down is over. The
management has maintained its revenue growth of 7-8% for FY16 and margins are likely to improve by 70-90 basis
points (bps) over FY15. The companys growth will resume in Q2FY16 with around 3-3.5% Q-o-Q growth and
improvement in its bottom-line.
Valuation: The worst is over for First Source Solutions and one can expect a gradual re-rating of the FSL share with
improved earnings performance Q2FY16 onwards. FY16E and FY17E earnings have been kept unchanged. The share
trades at a P/E multiple of 6.9 times and 5.8 times its FY16E and FY17E earnings respectively. We have a Buy on the
stock with a price target of Rs.35.
Technical Outlook: The FSL share looks very good on the daily chart for medium-term investment. The share has
corrected from a 52-week high of Rs.42.75 and is now trading at Rs.26.65 level which is a good support. The share is
likely to form a double-bottom pattern on the daily chart and looks attractive at this low level for accumulation since its
downside seems limited.

A Time Communications Publication

10

Start accumulating at this level of Rs.26.65 and on dips to Rs.22 for medium-to-long-term investment and a possible
price target of Rs.35+ in the next 12 months.
*********

Tata Global Beverages Ltd.


(BSE Code: 500800) (CMP: Rs.124) (FV: Re.1) (TGT: Rs.150)
Tata Global Beverages Ltd (TGBL), through its subsidiaries, joint ventures and associates, is an India-based global
beverages company, providing tea, coffee and water products in the natural beverage categories. The Companys
business segments include Tea which includes cultivation, manufacture, blending and sale of tea in packets, bulk or
value added forms Coffee and other Produce which includes cultivation of coffee and related plantation crops and sale of
coffee in various value added forms and Others which includes sale of water products and other businesses. The key
products manufactured by TGBL are Tata Tea, Tetley, Himalayan-natural mineral water and Eight Oclock Coffee. The
Company operates in over 45 countries across Asia, Europe, North America, Africa and Australia.
TGBL is one of the largest integrated beverage players in India and a leader in the Indian and Canadian branded tea
market. Its focus on becoming a global high-margin beverage player gives a visibility of a double-digit earnings growth
over the next 2-3 years. The TGBL share price has corrected by 26% from its 52-week high and is currently trading at
17x its FY17E earnings at 36% discount to its last three years average forward multiple of 25x. Thus, one can expect a
20-25% appreciation in its share price in the next 6-12 months.
TGBL has re-defined its strategy to transform itself from the commodity business of Tea and Coffee, to a high-margin
beverages business. In line with this strategy, the company had a (50:50) strategic alliance with companies likes PepsiCo
and Starbucks to improve its growth visibility in the long run. Under the joint venture (JV) with PepsiCo, TGBL focuses
on tapping the non-carbonated ready-to-drink beverages under the brand name of Tata Gluco Plus and Tata Water
Plus, which has a good demand in South India. On the other hand, the tie-up with Starbucks provides an opportunity to
TGBL to explore the under-penetrated retail caf space in India (72 Starbucks cafes as at 31 March 2015). Thus, along
with the branded tea and coffee businesses, these strategic alliances could be the key drivers for TGBLs revenue growth.
TGBLs operating profit margin (OPM) is likely to improve gradually and touch double-digit levels over the next two
years on the back of moderate input prices and a favorable revenue mix (towards high-margin branded products).
Coffee prices have corrected from their high and with uncertainty in Chinas macro-environment, the input prices are
expected to further slide in coming months thereby improving the profitability of the coffee segment, which contributes
one-fourth of the overall revenues. Thus, the consolidated margins of TGBL will improve by 40-50 bps p.a. in the coming
years.
With a reduction of Rs.135 crore debt to Rs.1266
crore in FY15 its consolidated debt:equity ratio
works out to 0.2. Going forward, better cash flows
Can you spot a winner?
should help reduce the consolidated debt further
by Rs.300-350 crore over the next two years,
Are you keen to write?
thereby reducing interest cost, which will boost the
If your answer is YES to all the three questions, MONEY TIMES,
bottom-line along with a gradual improvement in
the OPMs.
launched by the pioneers of investment journalism, invites
you to join its team of contributors.
Valuation: TGBLs
re-defined
strategy
of
transforming itself into a high-margin beverage
Each and every analyst on our panel is passionate about stock
player and its sustained focus on launching new
investments and is an expert in his field. What is, however,
products in diversified markets, make it one of the
more significant is that most of them were our subscribers
better players in the beverage space. A good
first and have been writing for over 20 years now.
earnings visibility of 16% CAGR over the next two
So if you want to join this eminent group, write to
years and a discounted valuation of 17x its FY17E
moneytimes.support@gmail.com and send us a sample of
earnings provide a positive view on this stock. We
advise a Buy on this stock with a price target of
your article written or published.
Rs.150.
Technical Outlook: The TGBL share looks very good on the daily chart for medium-term investment. The share is likely
to form a saucer-bottom pattern on the daily chart. The stock looks attractive at the current level for accumulation
since a short-term bottom has been made at Rs.110. If its share price crosses Rs.125 and sustains with good volumes,
then it could go up to Rs.145+.

Are you passionate about stocks?

A Time Communications Publication

11

Start accumulating at this level of Rs.124 and on dips to Rs.110 for medium-to-long-term investment and a possible
price target of Rs.150 in the next 6 months.

STOCK SCAN

Sandesh Ltd: For long-term wealth creation


(BSE Code: 526725) (CMP: Rs.636) (FV: Rs.10)
By Hemangi Gandhi
Sandesh Group, a 90 year old newspaper started in 1923 is Gujarats largest and most influential media house today,
having a strong foothold across the media landscape with such products.
Newspaper: Sandesh, published from Gujarat and Maharashtra, is the largest Gujarati media company with 7 editions
across Gujarat and Mumbai.
Television: Sandesh News (an award-winning channel) is the fastest growing 24x7 Gujarati News Channel reaching out
to a large audience.
Digital: Sandesh is amongst the first few to launch a Gujarati news Smart Phone Application that provides information
and news on real-times basis and has been expanding its digital presence to over 5 million followers across all platforms.
Magazine & Weekly Publications: Through Agro Sandesh the company provides relevant and enriching content to the
farming, dairy and co-operative sectors, Stree a popular women-focused magazine addresses the issues related to them
and reaches out to women across all classes.
OOH (Out-of-Home) Media Solutions: Spotlight Brand Management focuses on every aspect of Brand Launching and
Brand Building, enhancing the brand message by going beyond just catching attention to create a lasting buzz around
the brand. The Company has its sites at all the major commercial areas in Ahmedabad and has procured various
prestigious tenders like Bus Rapid Transit System (BRTS), Bus Shelters, Ahmedabad Urban Development Authority
(AUDA) and Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation.
Moreover, the Sandesh group successfully operates its Real Estate business under the name of Applewoods Estates Pvt
Ltd, by monetizing its land bank in Ahmedabad and also its Finance business.
To cover entire Gujarat, Sandesh has printing facilities at Baroda, Surat, Rajkot, Bhavnagar and Bhuj to cater semi-urban
and rural areas. Its regional offices are located at Mumbai, Delhi, Kolkata, Bengaluru, Chennai and Pune. The Company
enjoys a strong regional franchise with strong readership loyalty.
Future Outlook: According to the FICCI-KPMG Report 2014, the print sector continued to buck the global slowdown
trend growing at a CAGR of 8.5% last year to touch Rs.243 billion. The print industry is expected to grow at a CAGR of
9%+ over 2013-18, as against an estimated 8.7% in 2013. The vernacular market saw a 10.8% growth in advertisement
revenues, while the English print reported a sluggish growth of 5.2%. The increase in population, literacy rate and
geographical reach has led to an increased circulation and readership of newspapers in India. Sandesh is steadily
increasing its geographical presence, which helps improve its circulation and the readership of its publications.
Sectors which spent heavily on print advertising were FMCG (12.3%), Automobiles (11.7%), Education (9.7%) and Real
Estate (8.7%). The FMCG, Telecom and Automobile sectors are likely to increase their adspend on print media, due to its
affordability, vast reach and direct impact to push
the sales in this economic slowdown.
Free 2-day trial of
According to the FICCI-KPMG Report 2014, among
Live Market Intra-day Calls
various media, Print and Television continued to
be the primary media platforms, claiming nearly
A running commentary of intra-day trading
82% of the total revenue and could continue to be
recommendations with buy/sell levels, targets, stop loss
the most dominant media for the next 5 years.
on your mobile every trading
Valuation: This closely-held debt-free and cash
day of the moth along with pre-market notes via email for
rich company, with an equity capital of Rs.7.61
Rs.4000 per month.
crore and reserves of Rs.392 crore (book value
Contact Money Times on 022-22616970 or
being Rs.604 per share), is trading at a P/E of only
moneytimes.support@gmail.com to register for a free trial
7.8 times with its trailing twelve months (TTM)
EPS of Rs.85 (Average Industry P/E multiple
stands at 18). The promoters hold 74.81% (zero pledge) of the equity capital, HNIs hold 12.12% and the rest (13%) is

A Time Communications Publication

12

held by the investing public. At the CMP of Rs.636, the share is available at a Price to Book Value of close to 1.1 (Industry
Price to Book Value being 4.5 times) and the Market cap:sales ratio is 1.5 (Industry Average being 4.5 times).
In Q1FY16 the company posted YoY sales growth of 10%, while Net Profit jumped over 50% from Rs.13.3 crore to
Rs.20.35 crore, registering an EPS of Rs.26.88. Its OPM was 36.15% and NPM was 22%, the highest in the industry. ROE
& ROCE stood at 12.01% and 35.95% respectively.
With such blockbuster results, the company is now on the high growth path and going forward, it may post an EPS of
Rs.110 for FY16, which makes this stock one of the cheapest among media companies at only 6 times P/E at the CMP of
Rs.636. Its a great media stock. Investors can invest for long-term wealth creation.

MARKET REVIEW

Investors book profits


By Devendra A Singh
The BSE Sensex (30-share index) settled at 25,863.50 tumbling 355.41 points and the NSE Nifty closed at 7,868.50
falling 113.40 points last
Why Techno Funda Plus is highly popular among investors?
week ending on Thursday,
24 September 2015. The
Techno Funda Plus is a superior version of the Techno Funda column that has recorded near
bourses plunged in 2 out of
90% success since launch. Since January 2015, while the Nifty is trading in the range of 8000the 4 trading sessions for
9000, TF+ stocks have given mind-blowing returns to investors. We at Techno Funda +
the week since Friday was
identify stocks that give handsome returns compared to their peers. We provide 3 stocks per
Eid holiday.
week for short to medium-term gains and are pleased to announce that most of our stocks
The markets witnessed
have given handsome returns.
profit booking by foreign
In the last 2 months, subscribers have booked profits in these stocks.
funds as commodity prices
declined sharply last week.
Stocks
Recomm. Rate
TF+ Target
Highest after Recom.
Copper recorded its biggest
Union Bank Of India
177
205
216
one-day fall on Tuesday, 22
Motherson Sumi Systems
353
385
396
September 2015 in over two
GHCL
81
115
142
months and toppled to a
Menon Bearings
40
50
63
three-week low in the global
Dishman Pharmaceuticals
178
215
218
markets which hit the
Godrej Consumer Products
1190
1350
1457
investor sentiment. Copper
Indiabulls Housing Finance
670
725
820
is
considered
as
a
KEI Industries
64
95
118
benchmark for commodity
Madhav Marbles Granites
40
60
64
prices.
Kalpataru Power
225
285
292
India Ratings & Research
JBF Industries
257
300
319
said, Indias current account
KEC International
128
160
161
deficit (CAD) is expected to
Essel Propack
126
165
166
remain comfortable in the
Visaka Industries
115
150
183
current fiscal year even
TNPL
149
185
217
though it rose to $6.2 billion
IVP
57
75
106
in Q1FY16 or 1.2% of the
Capital First
375
450
450
GDP (sequentially higher
Sunil Hitech Engineers
250
290
352
than $1.5 billion in the
Sterlite Technologies
72
95
110
previous quarter). The CAD,
Marksans
Pharma
66
85
115
however, was lower than
Pondy
Oxides
Chemicals
73
100
134
$7.9 billion in Q1FY15.
Emami
1125
1250
1368
In FY15, the CAD stood at
In such a market, Techno Funda Plus is ideal for short-term investors to reap good rewards.
$27.9 billion (1.3% of the
For more detail contact Money Times. Subscription Rate: 1 Month: Rs.2500, 3 Months:
GDP) as against $32.4
Rs.6000, 6 Months: Rs.11000, 1 Year: Rs.18000 Contact Money Times on 022billion (1.7% of the GDP) in
22616970/22654805 or moneytimes.support@gmail.com.
FY14 and $88.1 billion
(4.7% of the GDP) in FY13.
A Time Communications Publication

13

The merchandise exports contracted for the third consecutive quarter and a worrying trend is that the magnitude of the
contraction has been increasing with each quarter. The report added.
On crude oil it said, Crude oil prices are likely to remain soft for remaining part of FY15-16 due to the sluggish global
recovery and demand-supply situation in the crude oil market. However, the flip side of softer oil prices has been that it
has impacted Indias export growth as well.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) in its latest report Asian Development Outlook (ADO) marked lowered growth
projections for India for FY16 to 7.4% from the 7.8% due to the weak monsoon, poor external demand and the inability
of the government to push economic reforms in Parliament.
It retained the consumer inflation forecast for India at 4% (plus/minus 0.2%). Further, the agency cautioned that a
possible increase in crude oil prices in the international market could adversely affect the prices.
The report further said that because of a slowdown in the Indian and the Chinese economy, the GDP forecasts have been
revised down to 5.8% and 6% in FY15 and FY16 from the March estimate of 6.3% for both the years.
On the monsoon front, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said, An enhanced activity of the southwest
monsoon brought good rainfall in several parts of the country last week till Friday, 25 September 2015, giving a breather
in many regions reeling under severe water deficiency.
Incidentally, a fresh round of enhanced monsoon activities has also stopped the withdrawal of the monsoon albeit for a
short period in the last week of September.
The monsoon rains which contributes to around 70% of Indias annual rainfall are crucial to the nations agriculture
sector and broader economy which accounts for 14% of the $2 trillion economy as half of the countrys farmland lacks
irrigation. Over 60% of the countrys farmland is rain-fed. The timing, the distribution and the quantity of rainfall are all
essential for the crops.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has cut its world economic growth forecasts for
FY15 and FY16 due to a dramatic slowdown in Brazil and a global outlook clouded by uncertainty over China.
The OECD trimmed its world growth forecasts for FY15 to 3% and 3.6% for FY16.
The forecast for Brazil took the biggest hit by far in the latest OECD report. Suffering from a commodity price crash and
engulfed in recession like other emerging economies and with its debt downgraded by Standard & Poors (S&P) this
month to junk bond status, Brazil had its economic outlook for this year downgraded to a 2.8% contraction instead of
0.8%.
A worse than expected slowdown in China is sparking financial and economic turbulence that could be a significant drag
on advanced economies.
For recovery, additional stimulus may be needed. Also it should rely less on debt-financed infrastructure and
construction spending and more on expansion of social expenditures that will help support consumer spending and
adjustment towards a more balanced growth model, the OECD added.
The key indices edged lower on Monday, 21 September 2015 on fresh buying. The Sensex fell marginally 25.93 points (0.01%) to close at 26,192.98. The Nifty ended down by 4.80 points (-0.06%) to close at 7,977.10.
The key indices tanked on Tuesday, 22 September 2015 on profit booking by FIIs as commodity prices crashed. The
Sensex slumped 541.14 points (-2.07%) to close at 25,651.84. The Nifty fell 165.10 points (-2.07%) to close at 7,812.00.
The key indices climbed on Wednesday, 23 September 2015 on buying of stocks. The Sensex jumped 171.15 points
(+0.67%) to close at 25,822.99. The Nifty was up 33.95 points (+0.43%) to close at 7,845.95.
The key indices edged up on Thursday, 24 September 2015 on extended buying. The Sensex registered modest gains of
40.51 points (+0.16%) to close at 25,863.50. The Nifty was up 22.55 points (+0.29%) to close at 7,868.50.
The Indian stock market remained closed on Friday, 25 September 2015 on account of Bakri-Eid.
For future events, corporate earnings, national and global macro-economic figures and other global cues will dictate the
financial markets.
The Indian corporate firms will start declaring their Q2FY16 financial results from next month. Investors will closely
watch the management results which could cause a revision in the future earnings forecasts of companies for the
current year.
Market participants will keep a close track on RBIs monetary policy review which is scheduled on Tuesday, 29
September 2015.

A Time Communications Publication

14

EXPERT EYE
By Vihari

Rural Electrification Corporation: Accumulate


(BSE Code: 532955) (CMP: Rs.268) (FV: Rs.10)
The share of Rural Electrification Corporation Ltd (REC) can be bought on dips for a steady appreciation as the finance
PSU is on a robust growth path. REC and is to post an EPS of Rs.60 in FY16.
Incorporated in 1969, REC, a term lending institution and a Navratna Central Public Sector Enterprise under the
Ministry of Power, is engaged in the business of lending to power projects and also promotion of transmission,
distribution and generation projects throughout India. Its schemes are aimed at extending and improving electricity
supply and the energisation of agricultural pump-sets. REC is promoted by the Government of India (GoI) and has four
subsidiaries for undertaking specific business activities (1) REC Transmission Projects Company (RECTPCL) (2) REC
Power Distribution Company (RECPDCL) (3) Vemagiri Transmission System (VTSL) (a wholly-owned subsidiary of
RECTPCL) and (4) Vizag Transmission (a wholly-owned subsidiary of RECTPCL).
REC floated an IPO of 15.61 crore equity shares at Rs.105 per share aggregating Rs.1638 crore in February 2008 to
augment the capital base and meet its future capital requirements. The issue comprised a fresh issue of up to 78,060,000
equity shares by REC and an offer for sale (OFS) of up to 78,060,000 equity shares. In February 2010, REC came out with
a follow-on Public Offer (FPO). The floor price for 171,732,000 shares FPO was fixed at Rs.203 (a 7% discount to its
previous closing price) per share by the GoI. The issue comprised a fresh issue of 128,799,000 equity shares and an OFS
of 42,933,000 equity shares by the President of India, acting through the Ministry of Power, GoI. RECs 5% OFS in April
2015 was subscribed 5.5 times at Rs.325 per share.
REC provides loan assistance to State Electricity Boards (SEBs)/state power utilities for investments in rural
electrification schemes through its corporate office in New Delhi and 17 field units (project offices), spread over various
states. Its project offices coordinate RECs financing programmes with the concerned SEBs/state power utilities and
facilitate in the formulation and implantation of schemes and loan sanction and disbursement. The company finances all
types of power generation projects like thermal, hydel, renewable energy, repair and maintenance (R&M) of existing
projects etc. The borrowers of REC include state sector power utilities/SEBs, central sector, joint sector and private
sector power utilities.
The Infrastructure Finance Company (IFC) status has put REC in a better position than some of its competitors and
given it more flexibility in operations. It has enhanced RECs ability to raise funds at a cost-competitive basis and
increased its lending exposures to individual entities, corporations and groups etc. It will also enable REC to effectively
capitalize on the available financing opportunities in the power sector. REC focus on the entire energy value chain i.e.
from generation to transmission and distribution augurs well. It has a 85% exposure to SEBs out of which 20% of the
projects are guaranteed by the State Governments and the balance exposure from Central PSUs and from private
players. Sector-wise, about 45% exposure is towards generation, 50% towards T&D and the balance from others. RECs
70% loans are backed by an escrow mechanism.
For FY15, net profit rose 12% to Rs.5260 crore on 18% higher revenue of Rs.20230 crore and its EPS stood at Rs.53.3
and a total dividend of 107% was paid. RECs Q1FY16 net profit grew 15% YoY to Rs.1479 crore on 21% higher revenue
of Rs.5663 crore and the EPS stood at Rs.15. Its NIM was 5.05% (as against 5.07% in Q3FY15 and 5.12% in Q2FY15)
since it benefited from lower funding costs (a 22bps QoQ decline to 8.42%). Incremental borrowing during the quarter
through taxable bonds at 8.29% (as against 8.71% in Q3FY15) and foreign currency borrowing at 5.26% (as against
6.56% in Q3FY15) aided in bringing down the cost of new funds raised from 8.17% to 7.27% QoQ. This, however, was
off-set by a 27bps QoQ decline in lending yields which was a result of discounts given to a few state utilities. Being a
largely wholesale-funded institution, REC may continue to reap benefits of easing rates.
With an equity capital of Rs.987.5 crore and reserves of Rs.23870 crore, its consolidated share book value works out to
Rs.251. The promoters of the company hold 60.6% in the equity capital, FIIs hold 21.7%, DIs hold 11.6% and PCBs hold
2.8%, leaving 3.3% with the investing public.
Credit costs for REC are likely to increase since standard asset provisioning, which is now at 25 bps of increase in net
loans, could more up to 40 bps in line with most other NBFC peers. Rescheduling of loans that were sanctioned after 31
March 2015 will carry full provisioning coverage for any net present value (NPV) sacrifice due to the same. Rescheduled
projects that do not qualify for DCCO (Date of Commencement of Commercial Operations) extension under new
restructuring guidelines will require 2.75% provisioning by 31 March 2015 and 5% by 31 March 2018. REC, however,

A Time Communications Publication

15

has recently obtained shareholders nod to raise up to Rs.42,000 crore, which in future will reduce the cost of
borrowings upon its deployment.
The Government of India (GoI) has permitted REC to issue tax-free bonds, raise foreign commercial borrowing up to
75% of its net worth without prior government approvals as well as provide funds from budgetary allocation and debt
guarantee. Fitch expects REC to continue receiving support from the GoI and harness all resources to capture an optimal
share of the funding business of the estimated Rs.7.7 lakh crore debt requirement for the 12 th Five Year Plan. REC strives
to sustain and maintain a consistent growth rate and surge ahead to attain greater heights of success and match its
stakeholders expectations despite some stresses.
According to the Planning Commissions estimates, REC is expected to fund around Rs.1.75 lakh crore worth of power
projects in the 12th Five Year Plan (2012-17) which translates into a 22% growth annually over this period. Apart from
the high demand for credit, the companys access to Section 54EC bonds and tax-free bonds for low-cost funding helps
REC to maintain its margins. Moreover, with a stable Central Government, Infrastructure bottlenecks are likely to be
eliminated, which is positive for growth and asset quality.
Amid the underlying stress in the power segment, REC has managed to generate a steady CAGR of over 20% over FY0915. While the RBIs recent move to grant regulatory forbiddance to banks for infrastructure lending can exert pressure
on profitability over the long-term, near-term growth and profitability is likely to remain healthy led by outstanding
sanctions of Rs.1.2 lakh crore (80% of outstanding loan book), a massive demand-supply mismatch and a delicate health
of SEBs (enables pricing power).
REC has maintained an almost equal share between Generation and Transmission & Distribution loans. Generation is
unlikely to be de-emphasized and in line with large capex requirements of the sector loan book will grow at a healthy
pace. The companys huge volume of business, its steady cost of funds and extension of mobilizing traditional sources of
fund at low costs through capital gain/other taxable bonds and banks/ECB routes and the huge investment lined up in
the power sector give strong visibility to RECs revenues and profitability in the coming years.
A lag impact of various actions taken by the government like a hike in tariff rates, automatic fuel pass through, coal
mining projects receiving forest clearances, focus on infrastructure (power in particular), attempts to resolve the fuel
linkage issues and timely tariff hikes by SEBs are the key drivers for the REC stock to escalate going forward.
Based on the ongoing trend in RECs profitability, it is likely to register an EPS of Rs.60 in FY16. At the CMP of Rs.268, the
share trades at a forward P/E multiple of just 4.4 on FY16E earnings. A conservative P/E of even 6.5 will take its share
price to Rs.390 in the medium-to-long-term. The 52-week high/low of the share is Rs.371.05/211.40.
*********

UltraTech Cement: Cementing growth


(BSE Code: 532538) (CMP: Rs.2810.65) (FV: Rs.10)
The share of UltraTech Cement Ltd (UTCL) can be bought for decent gains in the long-term as the cement major is
geared up with enhanced capacities to meet the rising demand.
UTCL is one of the leading global cement producers and the largest manufacturer of grey cement, Ready Mix Concrete
(RMC) and white cement in India. It is also India's largest exporter of cement reaching out to meet the demand in
countries around the Indian Ocean and the Middle East. UltraTech as a brand embodies strength, reliability and
innovation. Its parent company, the Aditya Birla Group, is in the league of Fortune 500 companies, which employs a
diverse workforce comprising of 1,20,000 employees, belonging to 42 different nationalities across 36 countries.
UTCL has 12 integrated plants, 1 clinkerisation plant, 16 grinding units and 6 bulk terminals. Its operations span across
India, UAE, Bahrain, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.
In the white cement segment, UltraTech markets its products under the brand name Birla White. It has a 0.56 MMTPA
white cement plant and 2 WallCare putty plants with a combined capacity of 0.8 MMTPA. With over 100 RMC plants in
35 cities, UltraTech is the largest manufacturer of concrete in India. It also has a slew of speciality concretes that meet
the specific needs of discerning customers.
With the acquisition of a 4.8 MMTPA plant of Jaiprakash Associates for Rs.5400 crore (US$175/tonne), the companys
capacity has risen to 59 MMTPA. The acquisition included (1) 4.9 MMTPA of grinding capacity (2) 5.2 MMTPA of clinker
capacity and (3) 180 MW of a captive power plant. Key features of the acquired assets were the acquisition of 2.6
MMTPA of grinding capacity at Bela and 2.3 MMTPA at Sidhi in Madhya Pradesh. The assets have clinker capacities of 2.1
MMTPA at Bela and 3.1 MMTPA at Sidhi. Of the 180 MW of captive power plants, 25 MW is at Bela and 155 MW is at
Sidhi.

A Time Communications Publication

16

Earlier in FY14, UTCL had bought two Gujarat based cement units of Jaiprakash. The transaction of Rs.3800 crore had
valued the cement unit capacity at $124 per tonne (compared to $133 per tonne what Ambuja is paying to acquire ACC's
units), which was equal to the replacement cost of a similar plant. The acquisition of 4.8 MMTPA also gave UltraTech a
57.5 MW coal-based thermal power plant and limestone reserves for over 90 years at the current capacity and a captive
jetty. The company will also get 5,500 hectares of land with 500 MMT of limestone reserves.
UTCL is geared increasing capacities to meet the increasing demand. During Q2FY15, it commissioned a 1.4 MMTPA
cement mill in Karnataka, a 25 MW thermal power plant in Andhra Pradesh and a 0.4 MMTPA Wall care putty plant at
Katni. Thus, the companys total cement capacity in India stands at 60.4 MMTPA and the power capacity at 733 MW
meeting 80% of its power requirement.
In August 2015, the Company commissioned a bulk terminal with a 2 MTPA capacity in Pune, Maharashtra. It obtained
the Environment Ministry's clearance in December 2014 to expand the capacity of its Awarpur plant in Maharashtra at
an investment of Rs.248 crore. UTCL has proposed to raise the production of clinkers (a raw material for cement
manufacture), to 4.5 MMTPA from the existing 3.30 MMTPA and raise the cement output to 6 MMTPA from 4.48 MMTPA.
UTCL has been asked to earmark at least 5% of its total cost of the project towards enterprise social commitment and
prepare a detailed CSR plan every five years for the existing-cum-expansion project. The company has informed the
Ministry that the proposed expansion will be carried out within the existing plant area of 307.35 hectares. The
additional power required for the proposed expansion is 5.1 MW.
For FY15, consolidated net profit was Rs.2098 crore on net sales of Rs.24348 crore, with an EPS of Rs.76.5. In Q1FY16,
consolidated net profit fell 6% to Rs.591 crore on 6% higher sales of Rs.6432 crore, registering an EPS of Rs.21.5. With
an equity capital of Rs.274.4 crore and reserves of Rs.18767 crore, its share book value works out to Rs.687. With debts
of Rs.9829 crore, the DER works out to 0.51:1. In FY15, cash amounted to Rs.393 crore whereas investments in quoted
and unquoted securities stood at Rs.4500 crore. The promoters hold 61.7% of the equity capital, FIIs hold 20.6%, DIs
hold 6.7% and PCBs hold 4.5%, leaving 6.5% with the investing public.
UTCL is in talks to buy a 2.2 MTPA Jaiprakash facility in Bhilai (Chhattisgarh) for Rs.600 - Rs.700 crore ($106 million) as
per sources.
With projects underway, the companys capacity will rise to 70-71 MTPA by FY16. The proposed plans will fit into Mr.
Kumar Mangalam Birla's stated ambition of having a cement capacity of 100 MMTPA by 2020. Despite the prevailing
muted growth of the cement industry, we believe that the companys long-term fundamentals and growth prospects
remain intact. UTCL aims to add more capacities in the coming years.
UTCL has taken possession of the Bicharpur coal mines in Madhya Pradesh. The coal blocks provide fuel security for its
cement plants within the vicinity of the mines for a period of 30 years with its 29.12 MMT reserves of coal. The Company
expects production to commence in early FY18. In Q1FY16, UTCL also commissioned 15 MW Waste Heat Recovery Plant
taking the total power generation capacity from waste heat recovery to 48 MW.
On Ultratechs outlook, most analysts maintain that the company will consistently outperform the sector on growth as
well as quality of earnings led by timely addition and highly efficient operations. Although the current valuations at an
enterprise value of $156 per tonne at the FY16 estimated capacity might sound expensive, its strong volume growth and
dominant franchise could drive the stocks valuation to the peak-cycle level of $170 per tonne.
UTCL expects the demand for cement to pick-up from the second half of FY16 on the back of the governments focus on
infrastructure development with higher budgetary allocation for roads, dedicated freight corridor, irrigation, ports etc.
The, cement demand is also expected to rise from the 'Housing for all' initiative taken by the government. The cement
industry is also likely to benefit from the positive outcome of various government reform initiatives that have boosted
the overall business sentiment.
UTCL is expected to perform well going forward on account of the higher cement demand after the monsoons on the
back of economic recovery. The growing GDP, improved macro economic outlook and government initiatives will
provide further momentum. The industry utilisation levels have bottomed out at 70% in FY15 and the expect utilization
levels for the industry (excluding South India) are likely to improve to 85% by FY17 offering pricing power to cement
makers.
Ultratech Cement Ltd is likely to post an EPS of Rs.90 in FY16. At its CMP of Rs.2810.65, the share trades at a forward
P/E multiple of 31.2. In view of its strong fundamentals and quality management coupled with the bright prospects of
the cement industry going forward, the UltraTech share is recommended for long-term gains with a price target of
Rs.4000. The 52-week high/low of its share is Rs.3399/2299.55.

A Time Communications Publication

17

TECHNO FUNDA
By Nayan Patel

Samkrg Pistons & Rings Ltd.


(BSE Code: 520075) (CMP: Rs.143.80) (FV: Rs.10)
REVIEW
On 14 April 2014, we had recommended this stock at Rs.67.
One week ago recommended ITL
Thereafter, it zoomed to Rs.229.8 on 20 January 2015. We
Industries
@ Rs.38.8, in just 2 weeks
again recommend this stock, considering its impressive
it
zoomed
to Rs.45.5 levels &
Q1FY16 results.
recorded almost 17.30%
Samkrg Pistons and Rings Ltd. (SPRL), a Hyderabad-based
appreciation.
company incorporated in 1985, manufactures and markets auto
Last week recommended Caprihans
components. It offers and exports pistons, piston pins and piston
India @ Rs.73.6, during the week it
rings for gasoline and diesel Internal Combustion (IC) engines for
zoomed to Rs.78.8 level & recorded
scooters, motorcycles, cars, tractors, light commercial vehicles,
7% appreciation.
stationary engines and other special applications.
The Companys major domestic clients include Honda, Bajaj Auto,
TVS, Piaggio, TATA Motors, Force Motors, Hero MotoCorp,
Lombardini India, Majestic Auto, LML, Mahindra Two-Wheelers
etc.
Its major overseas clients include Motor Service, Bendix, Derbi, Techmot, Reliance Parts Corp, AssoWerke, Hispacold,
Motoco, Yamaha, Tecnamotor, TVS Logistic, ITG, Piaggio& Co and KNORR-BREMSE.
With an equity base of Rs.9.82 crore and reserves of around Rs.74.93 crore (which is 7.63 times the equity), its share
book value works out to Rs.84.72 and price:book value ratio is just 1.7, which is highly attractive. The promoters hold
66.88% of the equity capital while the investing public holds the remaining 33.09% stake.
In Q1FY16, PAT zoomed 31% to Rs.4.45 crore on flat sales of Rs.58 crore
Financial Performance:
(Rs. in crore)
and its EPS stood at Rs.4.53.
Particulars
Q1FY16
Q1FY15
FY15
Sales
58.09
60.89
232.47
The SPRL share is currently trading at a P/E multiple of just 10.3. The
company has regularly paid dividends since inception and paid 30%
PBT
6.30
5
18.01
dividend for FY15 as against 25% dividend for FY14.
Tax
1.85
1.60
5.48
PAT
4.45
3.40
12.32
The SPRL share at its CMP of Rs.143.80 looks attractive for investment.
Investors may buy this stock with a stop loss of Rs.120. On the upper
EPS (Rs.)
4.53
3.47
12.76
side, it could zoom to Rs.178-183 levels in the medium-term and further
to Rs.230 in the next 12-15 months. Its 52-week high rate is Rs.229.80.

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Disclaimer: Investment recommendations made in Money Times are for information purposes only and derived from sources that are deemed to
be reliable but their accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Money Times or the analyst/writer does not accept any liability for the use of
this column for the buying or selling of securities. Readers of this column who buy or sell securities based on the information in this column are
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