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Too Much Supply & Too Many Brands Combine with Too Much
Credit
9/28/2015
GLOBAL OUTLOOK
GLOBAL OUTLOOK
GLOBAL OUTLOOK
GLOBAL OUTLOOK
GLOBAL OUTLOOK
GLOBAL OUTLOOK
GLOBAL OUTLOOK
GLOBAL OUTLOOK
GLOBAL OUTLOOK
GLOBAL OUTLOOK
GLOBAL OUTLOOK
GLOBAL OUTLOOK
GLOBAL OUTLOOK
GLOBAL OUTLOOK
GLOBAL OUTLOOK
GLOBAL OUTLOOK
GLOBAL OUTLOOK
GLOBAL OUTLOOK
Biggest Worry" Is Dramatic Decline In Bond Market Liquidity, Prudential Says ...................................................... 635
2015 Macro Outlook Proving to be Volatile ............................................................................................................... 636
2015 Macro Outlook Forecasts Hinge on a Deteriorating US Economy ................................................................... 639
3 of 10 Largest Economies Have Fallen into Recession ........................................................................................... 640
This is the Biggest Risk to the World's Economy ...................................................................................................... 643
What is global market turbulence telling us? ............................................................................................................. 647
Darker Outlook Has Bond Market Rethinking Odds of Economic Downturn ............................................................ 650
The Last Days Of The Growth Story? ........................................................................................................................ 652
The Last Days Of The Growth Story? ........................................................................................................................ 654
- THE ECONOMIC ROADMAP AHEAD: It Isn't That Complicated! ............................................................................. 655
- 20 Signs That the Global Economic Crisis Is Starting To Catch Fire ......................................................................... 660
- Problems Erupting Everywhere (Signs of Implosion) ................................................................................................. 662
- Global Debt Crosses $100 Trillion, Rises By $30 Trillion Since 2007 ........................................................................ 665
The US as the Global Consumption Engine to See Sub 2% Trend Growth ............................................................ 668
- Credit Fueled Globalization in Retreat ........................................................................................................................ 671
- Rogoff's Sovereign Debt Default Levels ..................................................................................................................... 673
- Imbalances Continue to Increase Along With Financial Fragility ............................................................................... 676
- A 67 Million Jobs Gap ................................................................................................................................................. 678
NEW-GLOBAL SENTIMENT Latin America Falls Deeper Into A Recessionary Mindset ........................................................................ 742
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Global Consumer Confidence Down In Q4 2014 ................................................................................................ 743
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Global Consumer Confidence by Country .......................................................................................................... 744
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Global Consumer Confidence Improves the Most in North America .................................................................. 745
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Recessionary Sentiment Increases in Latin America ......................................................................................... 746
GLOBAL SENTIMENT North America Reports Strong Increase Y-o-Y for all Confidence Indicators .................................................... 747
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Consumer Confidence Decreases in 63% of European Markets ....................................................................... 748
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Consumer Confidence Decreases in 71% of Asia Pacific Markets .................................................................... 749
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Consumer Confidence Decreases in 71% of Latin America Markets ................................................................. 750
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Consumer Confidence in Saudi Arabia, Pakistan Falls ...................................................................................... 751
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Consumer Confidence High in Sub-Saharan Africa ........................................................................................... 752
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Global Business Activity Future Expectations .................................................................................................... 753
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Global Jog Prospects Reach 50% - First Time In 7 Years ................................................................................. 753
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Global Consumer Confidence by Country .......................................................................................................... 755
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Global Consumer Confidence Trends by Country .............................................................................................. 756
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Northern American Spending Intentions Rise According to Nielsen .................................................................. 757
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 758
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Global Business Confidence Collapses To Post-Lehman Lows ........................................................................ 758
GLOBAL SENTIMENT The State Of Economic 'Misery' Around The World ........................................................................................... 760
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Highest Level Since 2007 ................................................................................................................................... 764
GLOBAL SENTIMENT - Complacent .......................................................................................................................................................... 765
GLOBAL SENTIMENT - Complacent .......................................................................................................................................................... 767
GLOBAL SENTIMENT - Nielsens Global Consumer Confidence, Concerns & Spending Intentions ........................................................ 768
GLOBAL CONSUMPTION ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 779
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 780
NEW-GLOBAL CONSUMPTION Top 5 Global Household Savings Strategies by Region ..................................................................... 780
GLOBAL CONSUMPTION Rising Consumer Prices are Hurting Global Demand .................................................................................. 780
GLOBAL CONSUMPTION Global Home Prices Are Rolling Over .......................................................................................................... 781
GLOBAL CONSUMPTION Real Domestic Demand US, Japan & EU ................................................................................................. 782
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 783
GLOBAL GROWTH ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 783
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 783
NEW-GLOBAL GROWTH World Trade Values in US$ ........................................................................................................................... 783
NEW-GLOBAL GROWTH World Industrial Production ............................................................................................................................ 784
NEW-GLOBAL GROWTH World Trade (Values in US$) Index ............................................................................................................... 785
NEW-GLOBAL GROWTH World Trade Volumes Annual % Change 1966 to May 2015 ..................................................................... 786
NEW-GLOBAL GROWTH US Imports (Volumes) Annual % Change, 1966 to May 2015 ................................................................... 787
NEW-GLOBAL GROWTH US Imports (Values) Annual % Change, 1966 to May 2015 ...................................................................... 787
NEW-GLOBAL GROWTH JAPAN Imports (Volumes) Annual % Change, 1966 to May 2015 ............................................................ 788
NEW-GLOBAL GROWTH JAPAN Imports Annual % Change, 1966 to May 2015 ................................................................................. 788
NEW-GLOBAL GROWTH EURO AREA Imports (Volumes) Annual % Change, 1966 to May 2015 ................................................... 789
NEW-GLOBAL GROWTH EURO AREA (Values) Annual % Change, 1966 to May 2015 ................................................................... 789
NEW-GLOBAL GROWTH EMERGING ASIA Imports (Volumes) Annual % Change, 1966 to May 2015 ........................................... 790
NEW-GLOBAL GROWTH EMERGING ASIA (Values) Annual % Change, 1966 to May 2015 ........................................................... 790
NEW-GLOBAL GROWTH LATIN AMERICA Imports (Volumes) Annual % Change, 1966 to May 2015 ............................................ 791
NEW-GLOBAL GROWTH LATIN AMERICA (Values) Annual % Change, 1966 to May 2015 ............................................................ 791
NEW-GLOBAL GROWTH CHINAS Imports, Annual % Change ............................................................................................................ 792
NEW-GLOBAL GROWTH CHINAS Exports, Annual % Change ............................................................................................................ 792
GLOBAL GROWTH Global Leading Indicator Swirlogram Gets Worse ............................................................................................... 793
GLOBAL GROWTH Global Leading Indicator Signals Contraction ......................................................................................................... 794
GLOBAL GROWTH Eurozone PMI and GDP .......................................................................................................................................... 795
GLOBAL GROWTH World PMI Rankings ................................................................................................................................................ 796
GLOBAL GROWTH Global Leading Indicator Has Now Rolled Over ...................................................................................................... 797
GLOBAL GROWTH Global PMI Business Surveys Fall .......................................................................................................................... 797
GLOBAL GROWTH Baltic Dry Index Collapses 50% .............................................................................................................................. 798
GLOBAL GROWTH Global Slowdown on Verge of Contraction.............................................................................................................. 799
GLOBAL GROWTH - GDP Forecasts Continue to Be Taken Down........................................................................................................... 799
GLOBAL GROWTH Global Leading Indicator Goldmans Swirlogram Getting More Serious ......................................................... 799
GLOBAL GROWTH Global Industrial Production Rolling Over ............................................................................................................. 800
GLOBAL GROWTH Consensus 2014 GDP Forecast - Differential ......................................................................................................... 801
GLOBAL GROWTH G10 Macro Change ................................................................................................................................................. 801
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 802
GLOBAL GROWTH - World's Busiest Freight Route Rates Plunge To 2014 Lows ................................................................................... 802
GLOBAL GROWTH - Goldman Global Leading Indicator Drastically Revised, Collapses into "Confirmed Slowdown" ............................ 803
GLOBAL GROWTH - The Wal-Mart Measure or How the US Consumer Is the Global Engine ................................................................ 805
GLOBAL GROWTH Potential of a Global Recession Mounting .............................................................................................................. 806
GLOBAL GROWTH What the hint of a Fed Taper Did to Global Growth Estimates ............................................................................. 810
GLOBAL GROWTH - Uneconomic Energy Problematic ............................................................................................................................. 812
GLOBAL GROWTH - Global Growth Cycle ................................................................................................................................................. 814
GLOBAL GROWTH - Global GDP Contribution .......................................................................................................................................... 815
GLOBAL GROWTH - Slowing Global Growth - Air Cargo Shipments ........................................................................................................ 816
GLOBAL CREDIT .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 817
NEW- CREDIT CYCLE - HG Spread Widening .......................................................................................................................................... 817
NEW- CREDIT CYCLE - Widening Gap Between Debt & Equity ............................................................................................................... 817
CREDIT CYCLE - HY Leading the Way ...................................................................................................................................................... 817
CREDIT CYCLE - Reversal Ahead .............................................................................................................................................................. 821
NEW-CHARTS Only One Thing Can Stop the Fed from a September Rate Hike Emerging Market Weakness ................................. 921
CHARTS Feds QE History versus UST 10 Year Yields .......................................................................................................................... 922
CHARTS Fed Balance Sheet Growth ....................................................................................................................................................... 922
CHARTS June 2015 Fed Rates Hikes Diminish....................................................................................................................................... 922
CHARTS Inflation Expectations 1 Yr, 5010Yr, 5Yr/5Yr ......................................................................................................................... 923
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 924
NEW-US MONETARY Why We Have Low Level Equilibria .................................................................................................................. 924
NEW-US MONETARY Crashing Inflation Expectations Suggest Imminent Launch Of QE4 ................................................................... 926
NEW-US MONETARY Why Goldman Is Confident the Fed Will Wait To Hike Until December (At Least) ............................................ 927
NEW-US MONETARY Forget Rate Hikes: Bridgewater Says QE4 Is Next; Warns World Is Approaching End of Debt Supercycle..... 929
NEW-US MONETARY What Options Are Saying About A Possible September Rate Hike ................................................................... 930
NEW-US MONETARY The Fed Is Scared To Raise Rates, Ron Paul Warns "Everything Is Too Vulnerable" ...................................... 932
NEW-US MONETARY Hilsenrath Warns Fed Is Out Of Ammo, "Policy Makers Resorting To Backup, Backup Plans" ........................ 933
NEW-US MONETARY China's Record Dumping Of US Treasuries Leaves Goldman Speechless ....................................................... 935
NEW-US MONETARY Fed Goes Looking For Evidence of Broken Treasury Market, Decides Everything Is Fine ............................... 940
NEW-US MONETARY The Fed Is Out Of Options, "QE Is All It Can Do Here" Art Cashin Predicts ...................................................... 945
US MONETARY - Humphrey Hawkins Testimony - Yellen Secures More Flexibility for 'Patient' Fed ....................................................... 945
US MONETARY - Audit the Fed Yellens Testimony ................................................................................................................................ 948
US MONETARY - Criticism by Architect of Japanese Quantitative Easing of Fed Policy .......................................................................... 957
US MONETARY - CAPITAL DISTORTION - Global Acceptance of the Bernankean Theory .................................................................... 960
US MONETARY - FINANCIAL REPRESSION - The Suspension of Price Discovery................................................................................ 963
US MONETARY - The Fed is stuck in a QE Trap ....................................................................................................................................... 966
US MONETARY - 2nd Worst Decade In US Growth in Over 220 Years (And Getting Worse) .................................................................. 968
US MONETARY - Mathematically, The Fed Can Only Fail......................................................................................................................... 970
US MONETARY - QE Standing Between Inflated Equity Markets and A Recession ................................................................................. 976
US MONETARY - QE Programs versus S&P 500 Movements .................................................................................................................. 977
US MONETARY - BAML Warns If The US Economy Does Not Significantly Accelerate Now, It Never Will............................................. 979
US MONETARY - Debt Increases $1 Trillion in One Year .......................................................................................................................... 981
GLOBAL ABE-NOMICS The Road Ahead ......................................................................................................................................................... 984
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 984
JAPAN Japan Heads Back towards Deflation .......................................................................................................................................... 984
JAPAN The Third Arrow of ABE-Nomics -I ............................................................................................................................................... 985
JAPAN The Third Arrow of ABE-Nomics II ............................................................................................................................................. 986
JAPAN Japanese Households Remain Pessimistic ................................................................................................................................. 987
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 988
NEW- GLOBAL ABE-NOMICS - Japan Shocked To Find Abenomics Is Destroying Its Middle Class ...................................................... 988
NEW- GLOBAL ABE-NOMICS - "Godfather" Of Abenomics Admits Japanese Policy "Is A Ponzi Game ................................................. 990
GLOBAL ABE-NOMICS Monetary Expansion Extremely Difficult to Stop Once Started ........................................................................ 991
GLOBAL ABE-NOMICS Monetary Policy Below the Event Horizon ................................................................................................... 994
BOJ JAPAN ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 996
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 996
JAPAN Japans Inflation Pressure Ebbs Away......................................................................................................................................... 996
JAPAN BOJ QE Expansion In Context Debt Monetization ................................................................................................................... 997
JAPAN Japanese Trade Balance ............................................................................................................................................................. 998
JAPAN Japanese Real & Nominal Household Income ............................................................................................................................ 998
JAPAN CPI Shoots To 3.3% Y-o-Y .......................................................................................................................................................... 999
JAPAN Japan Government Investment Fund Asset Reallocation ..................................................................................................... 999
JAPAN Falling Real Rates as Financial Repression Takes Hold ....................................................................................................... 999
JAPAN Real Wages Plummet as Financial Repression Takes Hold ..................................................................................................... 1000
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1001
JAPAN - "Godfather" Of Abenomics Admits Japanese Policy "Is A Ponzi Game .................................................................................... 1002
JAPAN - How a Limo Ride With Paul Krugman Changed the Course of Abenomics ............................................................................... 1004
JAPAN - Kurodas Former Boss Urges Ditching of BOJ 2% Inflation Target ............................................................................................ 1007
JAPAN - No Way Out But to Expand the Monetary Base ......................................................................................................................... 1009
JAPAN - BOJ to "Own" 100% Of GDP In 5 Years..................................................................................................................................... 1010
JAPAN - Adjusted trade deficit the worst in Bloomberg's 20 year history ................................................................................................. 1013
JAPAN - Some Policies Have Clearly Hit the Limit ................................................................................................................................... 1015
JAPAN - Foreshadows Next Global Crisis ................................................................................................................................................ 1016
JAPAN - Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe prepares to print money for the whole world ..................................................................... 1021
JAPAN - Shinzo Abes Monetary-Policy Delusions ................................................................................................................................... 1022
JAPAN - BOJ Governor Job Suddenly Available in Historical "Abenomics U-Turn" ................................................................................ 1025
JAPAN - Japanese Economic Policy Goes The Full Ponzi ....................................................................................................................... 1026
PBOC - CHINA ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1028
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1029
NEW-CHARTS Chinas Capital Inflow / Outflow .................................................................................................................................... 1029
NEW-CHARTS Chinas Falling Holdings of US Treasuries ................................................................................................................... 1029
NEW-CHARTS Cumulative % Increases in Pork Since the Start of the Cycle ...................................................................................... 1030
NEW-CHARTS Severe Supply of Food Staple - Pork ............................................................................................................................ 1030
NEW-CHARTS Chinese CPI (Minus Pork) ............................................................................................................................................. 1031
CHARTS Bank Loans in China accelerating at the fastest pace since Financial Crisis. ....................................................................... 1031
CHARTS China Reduces Bank Reserve Ratio ...................................................................................................................................... 1031
CHARTS Speculation Takes Hold of Sky Rocketing Chinese Stock Market ......................................................................................... 1032
CHARTS Falling Chinese Government Revenue Growth ...................................................................................................................... 1034
CHARTS Falling National New Residential Housing Starts ................................................................................................................... 1034
CHARTS China and Asia Residential Property Tracking US Housing Bubble ...................................................................................... 1035
CHARTS Real Chinese Rates versus Cuts ............................................................................................................................................ 1035
NEW-CHARTS Developing Nation Currencies Plunge After Chinas Devaluation Rattles Markets...................................................... 1117
CHARTS Emerging Markets Facing Both Capital Out Flows and Falling Currencies ........................................................................... 1119
CHARTS Wide Spread Emerging Market Capital Out Flows ................................................................................................................. 1120
CHARTS Emerging Market Debt versus GDP - 2013 ............................................................................................................................ 1121
CHARTS Emerging Market Resilience Indicator Changes .................................................................................................................... 1121
CHARTS BRIC Countries Responsible for 43% of Global Growth ........................................................................................................ 1122
CHARTS BRIC & Emerging Market Inflation Rates ............................................................................................................................... 1122
CHARTS Emerging Market Default Probability ...................................................................................................................................... 1123
CHARTS Emerging Market versus Developed Market Public Debt and External Borrowing Positions ................................................ 1123
CHARTS Emerging Market Outflows...................................................................................................................................................... 1124
CHARTS Emerging Market Outflows -2 ................................................................................................................................................. 1124
CHARTS Developed versus Emerging Equity Markets 1990-2014 .................................................................................................... 1125
CHARTS Total GEM Flows..................................................................................................................................................................... 1125
CHARTS The Emerging Markets Have Been Weakening Since 2011 .................................................................................................. 1126
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1127
NEW-EMERGING MARKETS - Emerging markets: Redrawing the world map ....................................................................................... 1127
NEW-EMERGING MARKETS - Emerging Market Currencies To Crash 30-50%, Jen Says ................................................................... 1127
NEW-EMERGING MARKETS - Emerging Market Mayhem: Gross Warns Of "Debacle" As Currencies, Bonds Collapse ..................... 1129
NEW-EMERGING MARKETS - Emerging markets: Redrawing the world map ....................................................................................... 1135
NEW-EMERGING MARKETS - Lost Decade in Emerging Markets: Investors Already Halfway There .................................................. 1142
EMERGING MARKETS - JP Morgan Has A "Problem" With Emerging Markets ..................................................................................... 1147
EMERGING MARKETS - Which Emerging Markets Are Most Vulnerable To "External Shock" .............................................................. 1150
EMERGING MARKETS - Emerging markets: The great unraveling ......................................................................................................... 1152
EMERGING MARKETS - Moodys warns on EM dollar finance costs ...................................................................................................... 1157
EMERGING MARKETS - Fragile Five: The new focus of currency wars ............................................................................................. 1158
EMERGING MARKETS - Crisis Redux? ................................................................................................................................................... 1159
EMERGING MARKETS - Losing Their Punch ....................................................................................................................................... 1164
EMERGING MARKETS - Risk-On!........................................................................................................................................................... 1166
EMERGING MARKETS - Asia, BRIC, Emerging Markets Crater IBM Earnings .................................................................................. 1167
EMERGING MARKETS - Crisis Temporarily Halted .............................................................................................................................. 1169
EMERGING MARKETS - Increasing Liquidity Problems In Selected Markets .................................................................................. 1170
EMERGING MARKETS - The plight of four Asian countries - China, India, Indonesia and Japan. ................................................. 1176
EMERGING MARKETS - The Impact of "TAPER" ................................................................................................................................. 1181
EMERGING MARKETS - EM Crisis will make the 1997 Asian Crisis Seem like an Early Warning ................................................... 1185
EMERGING MARKETS - Global Deleveraging Accelerating and Developing Nations Feeling the Pain ........................................ 1188
PRIOR REPORT UPDATES & EDITIONS .......................................................................................................................................................... 1191
US$ RESERVE STATUS & ERODING INFLUENCE.......................................................................................................................................... 1191
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED DE=DOLLARIZATION ............................................................................................................................ 1191
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1195
DE-DOLLARIZATION - Countries that have joined the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank ............................................... 1195
DE-DOLLARIZATION - AIIBs Founding Members ................................................................................................................................... 1195
DE-DOLLARIZATION - Asias Infrastructure Legs & the AIIBs Expected Capital Structure ................................................................... 1196
DE-DOLLARIZATION - AIIB Infrastructure Investment ............................................................................................................................. 1197
DE-DOLLARIZATION - The Rise & Fall of Modern Empires .................................................................................................................... 1197
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1199
DE-DOLLARIZATION - U.S. Looks to Work with China-Led Infrastructure Fund..................................................................................... 1199
DE-DOLLARIZATION - US Hegemony, Dollar Dominance Are Officially Dead ....................................................................................... 1203
DE-DOLLARIZATION - The BRICS New Development Bank (NDB) with its Own SDRs Is Coming ....................................................... 1205
DE-DOLLARIZATION - China Takes Aim At Dollar Reserve Status: Promotes Yuan In Investment Bank ............................................. 1207
DE-DOLLARIZATION - Kazakhstan Authorities Announce Plans To De-Dollarize Economy .................................................................. 1209
DE-DOLLARIZATION - China to urge firms to sell bonds overseas to fund new Silk Road to Europe .................................................... 1211
DE-DOLLARIZATION - Is This The Most Important Chart For The Future Of The World's Reserve Currency? ..................................... 1211
DE-DOLLARIZATION - Is Russia Planning A Gold-Based Currency? ..................................................................................................... 1215
DE-DOLLARIZATION - De-Dollarization Accelerates: Russia Launches SWIFT-Alternative Linking 91 Entities .................................... 1217
DE-DOLLARIZATION - What if China, Russia Succeed in Going off the Dollar?..................................................................................... 1218
RESERVE CURRENCY - Asian Infrastructure Investment bank challenges U.S. supremacy ................................................................ 1219
RESERVE CURRENCY - March the moment the US lost its role as the underwriter of the global economic system.......................... 1221
RESERVE CURRENCY - - It just happened: The moment the United States lost its role . . . ............................................................... 1223
RESERVE CURRENCY - The World Is Beginning To Bypass America's Financial & Legally-Leveraged Political Power ..................... 1224
RESERVE CURRENCY - Putin Adviser Proposes "Anti-Dollar Alliance ................................................................................................. 1225
RESERVE CURRENCY - Chinese, Swiss Central Banks Sign Bilateral Swap Agreement ..................................................................... 1226
RESERVE CURRENCY - France, Brazil, India & Now South Korea Join Russia & China In Post-Dollar World Order .......................... 1227
RESERVE CURRENCY - Frances Noyer Says BNP May Prompt Shift Away From Dollar .................................................................... 1230
RESERVE CURRENCY - More Russian Companies Set To Drop Dollar, Switch To Chinese Yuan ...................................................... 1231
RESERVE CURRENCY - Russia, China sign deal to bypass U.S. dollar ................................................................................................ 1233
RESERVE CURRENCY - Japan May Eclipse China Again, as Largest Holder of US Treasuries .................................................... 1234
GEO-ECONOMICS OF ENERGY & PETRO$ - Petro$$ Coming Unglued ........................................................................................................ 1236
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1236
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1239
ENERGY Saudi Crude Oil Production & Brent Price ............................................................................................................................. 1239
ENERGY World Liquids Percent of Production ...................................................................................................................................... 1239
ENERGY Interest Rates & Oil Prices in 2015 Dollars ............................................................................................................................ 1240
ENERGY Oil Production and CAPEX by Operating Environment 2014 ................................................................................................ 1240
ENERGY Global Drilling Intensity Will Increase ..................................................................................................................................... 1241
ENERGY Most US shale play costs are below $80 a barrel Challenged when approaching $60 .................................................... 1241
ENERGY Breakeven for All Global Oil Projects ..................................................................................................................................... 1242
ENERGY Putin Cancels South Stream through Bulgaria To Go Through Turkey .............................................................................. 1243
ENERGY Putin Cancels South Stream through Bulgaria To Go Through Turkey .............................................................................. 1244
ENERGY Petro$$ Capital Exports Go Negative for First Time in 18 Years .......................................................................................... 1245
ENERGY Falling Inflation Adjusted Gasoline Prices .............................................................................................................................. 1246
ENERGY US v Saudi Oil Production now Equal at near 12B bl/Day ..................................................................................................... 1247
ENERGY US Shale Oil Breakeven Prices .............................................................................................................................................. 1249
ENERGY OPEC Announcement Crushes Ruble & WTI Crude ............................................................................................................. 1249
ENERGY USDRUB Rise Means Russian Loans in US$ In Big Trouble- Investment Collapse ............................................................ 1250
ENERGY EM Oil Producers Being Crushed .......................................................................................................................................... 1250
ENERGY Market Cap Impacts of OPEC Decision ................................................................................................................................. 1251
ENERGY Oil Supply / Demand and Price .............................................................................................................................................. 1252
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1253
RUSSIA- Putin Kills "South Stream" Pipeline, Will Build New Massive Pipeline To Turkey Instead .................................................... 1253
RUSSIA- OPEC Presents: QE4 And Deflation ...................................................................................................................................... 1256
RUSSIA Energy War ........................................................................................................................................................................... 1258
PETRODOLLAR The Saudis And US Collusion Behind the Falling Oil Prices ....................................................................... 1261
PETRODOLLAR Who Is Saudi Arabia Really Targeting In Its Price War? ............................................................................ 1265
PETRODOLLAR "There Will Be Blood": Petrodollar Death Ignites Liquidity And Oil-Exporting Crisis ........................... 1270
PETRODOLLAR Collapsing PetroDollar Foundation ......................................................................................................................... 1276
UKRAINE - Pulled between EU v Russia .............................................................................................................................................. 1280
UKRAINE - Pulled between An Ethnic Eastern and Western Ukraine .................................................................................................. 1280
UKRAINE - Pulled between Economic Inequality Factors ..................................................................................................................... 1281
UKRAINE - Pulled between the Global Military Balance ....................................................................................................................... 1282
UKRAINE - Pulled by Global Financial Markets .................................................................................................................................... 1283
UKRAINE - A Deep State Analysis ........................................................................................................................................................ 1286
ENERGY China Uses Crude Drop to Build Strategic Oil Reserve ..................................................................................................... 1290
ENERGY - The Shale Bust Arrives: November Permits For New Shale Wells Tumble 15% ............................................................... 1291
ENERGY - Crude Crash Slams Venezuelan Bonds To Close At 5-Year Lows: 21% Yield .................................................... 1292
ENERGY - The Oil Price Decline ........................................................................................................................................................... 1294
ENERGY - The Oil-Drenched Black Swan, Part 2................................................................................................................................. 1301
ENERGY - The Oil-Drenched Black Swan, Part 1 ......................................................................................................................... 1303
ENERGY - OPEC Presents: QE4 and Deflation .................................................................................................................................... 1306
ENERGY - The Sellside Chimes In On The Crude Crush: "This Will Reverberate For Years" ............................................. 1311
ENERGY - OPEC Decision "Major Strike Against", Russian Tycoon Says Shale Oil Doesnt Work < $80bl ................................... 1312
ENERGY - Energy Quakes as OPEC Stands Pat ................................................................................................................................. 1314
ENERGY - World's Largest Rig Operator, The "Recovery" Is Now Worse Than The Post-Lehman Crash ......................................... 1317
ENERGY - US "Secret" Deal with Saudis Backfires After Oil Minister Says US Should Cut First ....................................................... 1320
ENERGY - The 2014 Oil Price Crash Explained ............................................................................................................................. 1324
ENERGY - Crude and Credit Warn Of The Elongated Cycle Double Peak ............................................................................... 1329
ENERGY - Major Inflection Point Coming Near-Term In Energy Prices ............................................................................................... 1336
ENERGY - Russia Prepares Mega-Deal with India after Locking Up China With "Holy Grail" Gas Deal ............................................. 1339
ENERGY - Putin Prepares To Announce "Holy Grail" Gas Deal With China ........................................................................................ 1341
ENERGY - The Growing Rift with Saudi Arabia Threatens To Severely Damage the Petrodollar ....................................................... 1343
CHINAs CREDIT GROWTH Reverses Direction ............................................................................................................................................. 1348
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1348
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1349
CHINA LIQUIDITY Chinese Bank Asset Growth Dwarfs Developed Economies Central Banks .......................................................... 1349
CHINA LIQUIDITY Chinas Official GDP Growth Rate Continues to Fall .............................................................................................. 1350
CHINA LIQUIDITY Chinas Deleveraging ............................................................................................................................................... 1350
CHINA LIQUIDITY Chinas Inflation Rate versus Real Interest Rate .................................................................................................... 1351
CHINA LIQUIDITY Bank Loan Growth ................................................................................................................................................... 1351
CHINA LIQUIDITY Policy Rate, RRR and Loan Growth ........................................................................................................................ 1352
CHINA LIQUIDITY Declining Private Sector Fixed Asset Investment ................................................................................................... 1352
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Third of Chinese GDP Now Goes to Repay Interest and Principle on Existing Loans ............................................ 1353
CHINA LIQUIDITY Infrastructure Investment Offsets Weak Real Estate .............................................................................................. 1354
CHINA LIQUIDITY Shadow Banks Step Back Into Light ....................................................................................................................... 1354
CHINA LIQUIDITY Hopes that Credit Growth Will Spur Property Sales ................................................................................................ 1355
CHINA LIQUIDITY Transport, Construction Data Point to Slower Growth ............................................................................................ 1355
CHINA LIQUIDITY Little Impetus for Turnaround in Investor Sentiment ............................................................................................... 1356
CHINA LIQUIDITY Industrial Output & Exports Continue to Trend the Wrong Way ............................................................................. 1357
CHINA LIQUIDITY GDP Growth Trend .................................................................................................................................................. 1357
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1359
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Hugh Hendry - Why China's Biggest Bear, Became One Of Its Biggest Bulls ........................................................ 1359
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Three Reasons China May Cut the Reserve Requirement Ratio ............................................................................ 1363
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Reverses Direction and Begins Easing .................................................................................................................... 1364
CHINA LIQUIDITY - One Rate Cut Probably Not Sufficient to Sustain China's Growth ........................................................................... 1365
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Troubling Signs of Deflation in China ....................................................................................................................... 1366
CHINA LIQUIDITY - The Next Phase of Chinas Financial Deepening .................................................................................................... 1368
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Steady decline in private sector activity ................................................................................................................... 1369
CHINA LIQUIDITY - China Credit Risk Overshadows Outlook for Emerging Equities ............................................................................. 1370
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Easy Money Wont Solve Chinas Hard Problems .............................................................................................. 1373
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Housing Bubble Restricting PBOC Actions ........................................................................................................ 1375
CHINA LIQUIDITY - PBOC Squeezing Banks towards Reducing Speculative Risk .......................................................................... 1378
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Overnight Repo at 25% .......................................................................................................................................... 1379
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Red Flags ................................................................................................................................................................. 1380
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Credit Fueled Growth ............................................................................................................................................... 1383
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Shadow Banking System Showing Signs of Implosion ..................................................................................... 1388
CHINA LIQUIDITY - PBOC Wants to Hold the Line on Explosive Credit Expansion through A Liquidity Squeeze ...................... 1391
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Potentially De-Stabilizing Cash Crunch ............................................................................................................... 1393
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Chinese Liquidity Pump Unplugged .................................................................................................................... 1394
GOLD WARS Failing Developed Economies versus Rising Emerging Economies......................................................................................... 1396
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1396
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1398
GOLD WARS Plummeting Gold Holdings at NY Fed from Foreign Repatriation .................................................................................. 1398
GOLD WARS Gold : Debt Ratio Correlation Something Seriously Amiss! ......................................................................................... 1398
GOLD WARS Nominal & Real Price of Gold 1790-2013 .................................................................................................................... 1400
GOLD WARS Gold v S&P 500 Against True Austrian Money Supply ................................................................................................... 1400
GOLD WARS Swiss National Bank Gold, FX & Total Assets ................................................................................................................ 1401
GOLD WARS Sovereign Gold Holdings According to the World Gold Council ..................................................................................... 1401
GOLD WARS European Countries Gold Reserves Repatriation ........................................................................................................... 1402
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1404
GOLD WARS - Federal Reserve Confirms Biggest Foreign Gold Withdrawal in Over Ten Years ........................................................... 1404
GOLD WARS - European Nations Repatriate Gold Reserves from United States Vaults ....................................................................... 1405
GOLD WARS - Gold Shortage, Worst in 21st Century, And India Just Made It Worse ............................................................................ 1408
GOLD WARS - Deutsche Bank's Modest Proposal To Central Banks: "Purchase The Gold Held By Private Households" ................... 1410
INTERNATIONAL BANKING & SHADOW BANKING ......................................................................................................................................... 1412
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1414
DEBT Growth of Financial Services ....................................................................................................................................................... 1415
DEBT REITS & CMBS Growth ............................................................................................................................................................... 1415
DEBT - GLOBAL DEBT 313% of GDP...................................................................................................................................................... 1417
DEBT - 202M GLOBALLY UNEMPLOYED DEBTORS ............................................................................................................................ 1419
FOOD PRICES & SHORTAGES Potential Disruption...................................................................................................................................... 1420
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ............................................................................................................................................................................. 1420
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1421
CHARTS Cost of Thanksgiving Food ..................................................................................................................................................... 1421
CHARTS Consumer Price Increases Predominately Food in Emerging Economies ............................................................................ 1421
CHARTS Sticker Shock in Isle 1 ............................................................................................................................................................. 1422
CHARTS Food Importers ........................................................................................................................................................................ 1422
CHARTS US Beef Production To Reach 5 Years of Decline ................................................................................................................. 1423
CHARTS US CPI Turns Up on Food & Energy ...................................................................................................................................... 1424
CHARTS CRB US Spot Foodstuff Index One Year ............................................................................................................................ 1424
CHARTS CRB Food Index One Year .................................................................................................................................................. 1426
CHARTS Global Food Price Change 2007-2013 ................................................................................................................................... 1427
CHARTS Food Prices Spiking Up .......................................................................................................................................................... 1428
CHARTS Food Prices Spiking Up .......................................................................................................................................................... 1429
CHARTS Retail Food Services and Drinking Place Sales ..................................................................................................................... 1429
CHARTS Retail CRE Price/ Cost Pressures .......................................................................................................................................... 1431
CHARTS Retail CRE Price/ Cost Pressures - 2 ..................................................................................................................................... 1432
CHARTS Spiking Beef Prices ................................................................................................................................................................. 1433
CHARTS Coffee Futures ........................................................................................................................................................................ 1433
CHARTS Lean Hog Futures ................................................................................................................................................................... 1434
CHARTS Ukraine Corn and Wheat Prices Up 15% Since YB ............................................................................................................ 1434
CHARTS Global Food Imports versus % Y-o-Y US$ Change ............................................................................................................... 1435
CHARTS UK Food Retailers v Commodity Food Price Index ................................................................................................................ 1435
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1436
FOOD INFLATION - Food Prices Surge as Drought Exacts a High Toll on Crops .................................................................................. 1436
FOOD INFLATION - Food Prices, Driver of Social Unrest ..................................................................................................................... 1439
FOOD INFLATION - Food Price Manipulation in Thailand........................................................................................................................ 1440
CURRENCY WARS BACK ON Rate Wars Reversed With Un-Taper ............................................................................................................. 1442
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1442
CURRENCY WARS - A Major Shift............................................................................................................................................................... 1442
BATTLEFIELD - Combatants & Belligerents ................................................................................................................................................. 1447
BATTLEFIIELD - The Race to Debase ......................................................................................................................................................... 1448
JAPAN - The Destabilizing Agent .................................................................................................................................................................. 1450
EUROPE - Euro Exposed .............................................................................................................................................................................. 1450
ARGENTINA - Here we Go Again! ................................................................................................................................................................ 1452
VENEZUELLA - Bad Situation ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1453
BRAZIL - No One Wants to Listen ................................................................................................................................................................. 1453
SWITZERLAND - No Choice ......................................................................................................................................................................... 1453
SINGAPORE - Hot Money ............................................................................................................................................................................. 1454
UK- Pound Joins War .................................................................................................................................................................................... 1455
CYBER WARS Growing Threat & the Security-Surveillance Complex ............................................................................................................ 1456
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED....................................................................................................................................................................... 1456
SECURITY-SURVEILLANCE COMPLEX - NSA Whistleblower Example: Booz Hamilton ..................................................................... 1459
SECURITY SURVEILLANCE COMPLEX - Growing Without Public Control or Supervision! ............................................................... 1462
CYBER SPYING ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 1463
NEW-RESEARCH Europe's Refugee Crisis "Out of Control", Hungary PM Rages "This Is A German Problem, Not An EU Problem"
.................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1549
RESEARCH The Broken Model of the Eurozone ................................................................................................................................... 1552
RESEARCH The Japanization of Europe in 9 This Time It Is Different Charts .................................................................................. 1554
RESEARCH Eurozone on cusp of triple-dip recession as German exports crumble ............................................................................ 1555
RESEARCH Euro Areas Stalling Industry No Support for GDP............................................................................................................ 1557
RESEARCH Early Warnings of Euro-Area Downturn Strengthen ECBs QE Case .............................................................................. 1557
RESEARCH ECB Rate Decision ............................................................................................................................................................ 1559
RESEARCH Euro-Area Data Deterioration Points Toward QE ............................................................................................................. 1562
RESEARCH ECB v FEDERAL RESERVE ............................................................................................................................................. 1563
RESEARCH The ECBs Negative Deposit Rate .................................................................................................................................... 1565
RESEARCH EU Version of QE Coming -> UST Purchases to Drive Euro Down ................................................................................. 1567
RESEARCH Beware of EU Banks! ......................................................................................................................................................... 1569
RESEARCH Emerging Markets Aggravates Festering Banking Problems ........................................................................................... 1570
RESEARCH European Banks Have $3 Trillion of Exposure To Emerging Markets .............................................................................. 1572
RESEARCH - EFSF Downgraded to AA+ ................................................................................................................................................. 1574
RESEARCH - EU Stabilization Programs Are Presently Very Fragile ...................................................................................................... 1575
RESEARCH - Spreads Widened in Peripherals and Significantly in Portugal and Greece ...................................................................... 1578
SITUATIONAL ASSESSMENT ..................................................................................................................................................................... 1580
PROGNOSIS: Why the European Situation Will Get Worse ..................................................................................................................... 1580
PROGNOSIS: Increasing Structural Imbalances ...................................................................................................................................... 1584
PROGNOSIS: $22T Unaccounted - A Hidden World of Contingent Liabilities, Government Backing & Guarantees.............................. 1586
PROGNOSIS: Monetary Malpractice - ECB's LTRO Not a Solution but ................................................................................................... 1591
PROGNOSIS: Monetary Malpractice - ECB's SMP Effort Futile ............................................................................................................... 1595
PROGNOSIS: Monetary Malpractice - ECB Accepts BBB Collateral ....................................................................................................... 1598
PROGNOSIS: EU Banking Overbanked, Undercapitalized and Now Insolvent ....................................................................................... 1599
PROGNOSIS: Monetary Malpractice - TARGET2 "Contingent Liabilities" ............................................................................................... 1600
PROGNOSIS: Bailouts - Unsustainable & Unfundable ............................................................................................................................. 1607
ITALY FALLING BIRTH RATE & "MIGRANT BOAT PEOPLE" MOUNTING PROBLEMS ............................................................................. 1609
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1610
NEW-CHARTS - ITALY Non-Performing Loans by Region ................................................................................................................... 1610
NEW-CHARTS - ITALY Gross Italian Impaired Loans ........................................................................................................................... 1611
NEW-CHARTS - ITALY Italian Government Debt .................................................................................................................................. 1611
NEW-CHARTS - ITALY Banks Non-Performing Loans ......................................................................................................................... 1612
CHARTS - ITALY Quarterly GDP Growth .............................................................................................................................................. 1613
CHARTS - ITALY 30 Year Bond Yield At 2.3% - Historic Low ............................................................................................................... 1613
CHARTS - ITALY Italian Unemployment ................................................................................................................................................ 1615
CHARTS - ITALY Italian Core Inflation ................................................................................................................................................... 1615
CHARTS - ITALY Italian Industrial Porduction ....................................................................................................................................... 1616
CHARTS - ITALY Meal Affordability Deteriorates .................................................................................................................................. 1617
CHARTS - ITALY Falling Oil & Gas Consumption ................................................................................................................................. 1618
CHARTS - ITALY Italian Bond Yields ..................................................................................................................................................... 1618
CHARTS - ITALY Slips Back Into Recession ......................................................................................................................................... 1619
CHARTS - ITALY 10 Year Bond Yields Fall to Record Low .................................................................................................................. 1620
CHARTS - ITALY - Forced Rate Cuts ....................................................................................................................................................... 1621
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1622
NEW-RESEARCH Italy Youth Unemployment Hits Record High 44.2%, Concerns Rising "Recession Exit May Be Unsustainable" . 1622
NEW-RESEARCH Italy Is "Willing To Temporarily Suspend Schengen" In Response To Refugee Crisis 09-02-15 Zero Hedge ....... 1624
NEW-RESEARCH Italy Non-Performing Loans Hit A New Record High............................................................................................ 1630
RESEARCH Demographic Devastation: Italy's Birth Rate Drops To 150 Year Low ............................................................................. 1634
RESEARCH Italy Falls Back Into Recession, Raising Concerns for Eurozone ..................................................................................... 1636
RESEARCH - Italys Downward Spiral ...................................................................................................................................................... 1640
RESEARCH - Italys Budget Failures, Weak Growth Outlook Call Debt Sustainability Into Question ..................................................... 1642
SITUATIONAL ASSESSEMENT ................................................................................................................................................................... 1646
ITALIAN ELECTION - What You Need to Know ....................................................................................................................................... 1646
ITALIAN ELECTION - Europe Capitulates On Austerity- Never Had The Stomach For It ....................................................................... 1648
ITALIAN ELECTION - Message Given By the People .............................................................................................................................. 1650
ITALIAN ELECTION - Bad Debt Continue to Soar .................................................................................................................................... 1654
ITALIAN ELECTION - Italians React Badly to Austerity, Elections Hardly a Surprise! ............................................................................. 1657
ITALIAN ELECTION - EUROPEAN FEEDBACK - #1 ............................................................................................................................... 1658
ITALIAN ELECTION - EUROPEAN FEEDBACK - #2 ............................................................................................................................... 1660
ITALIAN ELECTION - Regional Financial Cracks in Sicily........................................................................................................................ 1663
FRANCE FRENCH DEBT & BANK EXPOSURES BIGGER THAN MOST APPRECIATE ............................................................................. 1665
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1665
NEW-CHARTS FRANCE Total Net Government Liabilities ................................................................................................................ 1665
CHARTS FRANCE Industrial production stagnated in February - 15% below pre-crisis levels. ........................................................ 1665
CHARTS FRANCE Bankruptcies Soar as Profitability Slumps ........................................................................................................... 1666
CHARTS FRANCE Post Hollande Election Results Jobseekers and 10 Year Yield ....................................................................... 1666
CHARTS FRANCE French Job Seekers ............................................................................................................................................. 1666
CHARTS FRANCE Inflation Expectations ........................................................................................................................................... 1667
CHARTS - FRANCE Hollande Popularity Gap Heading for a Record Low ........................................................................................... 1668
CHARTS - FRANCE Austerity Doesnt Get You Re-Elected ................................................................................................................. 1668
CHARTS - FRANCE Worlds Worst PMI Ranking in June ..................................................................................................................... 1669
CHARTS - FRANCE Near-record high bankruptcies and record-low profitability .................................................................................. 1670
CHARTS - FRANCE Frances PMI Trend Weakness Beginning to Stand Out...................................................................................... 1670
CHARTS - FRANCE Manufacturing Divergence With Germany Widens .............................................................................................. 1671
CHARTS - UK Rate Voting Shows Preference for Inflation Report Months ............................................................................................. 1770
nd
CHARTS - UK Below 2% Target But 2 Highest in EU ......................................................................................................................... 1770
th
CHARTS - UK CPI Below Target for 7 Month ...................................................................................................................................... 1771
CHARTS - UK Real-Wage Decline Longest Since At Least 1964 ......................................................................................................... 1772
CHARTS - UK Wage-Neutral Unemployment Rate Falling .................................................................................................................... 1772
CHARTS - UK CPI Too Low for BOE and Falling .................................................................................................................................. 1773
CHARTS - UK GDP ................................................................................................................................................................................ 1774
CHARTS - UK Population Growth .......................................................................................................................................................... 1774
CHARTS - UK - Crushed Disposable Income ........................................................................................................................................... 1775
CHARTS - UK - BOE Balance Sheet Growth ............................................................................................................................................ 1776
CHARTS - UK - Lending ............................................................................................................................................................................ 1777
CHARTS - UK - Unemployment ................................................................................................................................................................ 1778
CHARTS - UK - GDP - Pre and Post Recession Levels ........................................................................................................................... 1779
CHARTS - UK - GDP ................................................................................................................................................................................. 1779
CHARTS - UK - BOE Rates ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1780
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1781
NEW-RESEARCH British General Threatens Military Coup If Corbyn Elected ..................................................................................... 1781
NEW-RESEARCH The End of Britain? Martin Armstrong On Jeremy Corbyn's Resurrection Of Marx ............................................... 1782
NEW-RESEARCH What is Jeremy Corbyn's programme for government? .......................................................................................... 1786
NEW-RESEARCH What does Jeremy Corbyn stand for? Jeremy Corbyn's policies and views explained .......................................... 1792
NEW-RESEARCH Who is Jeremy Bernard Corbyn? ............................................................................................................................. 1796
NEW-RESEARCH The City Of London Has Turned Britain into A "Civilized Mafia State".................................................................... 1801
RESEARCH What Remains of the UK Middle? ..................................................................................................................................... 1802
RESEARCH Clean Sweep by UK Conservatives Masks Huge Rifts ..................................................................................................... 1803
RESEARCH Explaining UK's Dysfunctional Voting System; Where is British Politics Headed? Horse Trading .................................. 1806
RESEARCH Consensus See UK Rate Increase in February 2015 Possibility of November ............................................................. 1809
RESEARCH BOE Faces Labor Market Conundrum as Wage Growth Stalls ........................................................................................ 1811
RESEARCH - UK workers' wage squeeze is longest since the 1870s ..................................................................................................... 1814
SITUATIONAL ASSESSEMENT ................................................................................................................................................................... 1815
UK - What you need to Know..................................................................................................................................................................... 1815
UK - Joins Currency War - Down 8% YTD ............................................................................................................................................. 1816
UK - Specter of Stagflation Haunts UK ...................................................................................................................................................... 1817
UK - Public Policy turns Against Austerity and PM Cameron ................................................................................................................... 1818
UK - Doomsday Debt Machine .................................................................................................................................................................. 1819
UK - QE Extension Coming ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1822
UK - Small Business Credit Squeeze Now Acute - Loan Rejections Rising ............................................................................................. 1824
UK - Technically in a Depression ............................................................................................................................................................... 1825
IBERIAN PENINSULA SPANISH ELECTION & ASCENDING PORTUGAL SOCIALISTS SIGNAL TROUBLES ......................................... 1828
CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 1828
NEW-CHARTS - SPAIN Spains Debt-to-GDP........................................................................................................................................ 1828
NEW-CHARTS - SPAIN Spains & Portugals Unemployment Rate June 2015 Seasonally Adjusted ................................................ 1828
CHARTS - SPAIN Spanish Industrial Production Output +1.0% MM, +2.9% YY ................................................................................... 1828
CHARTS - PORTUGAL Share of Lower Skilled Workers ....................................................................................................................... 1829
CHARTS - PORTUGAL Non-Performing Loans...................................................................................................................................... 1830
CHARTS - SPAIN 30 Year Bond Yield At 2.5% - Historic Low ............................................................................................................... 1831
CHARTS - SPAIN 10 Year Bond Yield At 2.37% - Historic Low ............................................................................................................. 1831
CHARTS - PORTUGAL Yields Hit Low After BES Bailout ..................................................................................................................... 1832
CHARTS - PORTUGAL - Deficit Problem ................................................................................................................................................. 1833
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1834
NEW-RESEARCH - Spain's Economic Recovery Is "One Big Lie"........................................................................................................... 1834
RESEARCH - Jitters over Spanish elections, Greece hit banks, euro ...................................................................................................... 1837
RESEARCH - Jitters over Spanish elections, Greece hit banks, euro ...................................................................................................... 1840
RESEARCH - Presidential Warning Spikes Yields To 8 Months Highs .................................................................................................... 1844
RESEARCH - Clear Signs of Desperation In Spain from a Growing Collateral Contagion ...................................................................... 1846
RESEARCH - The Spanish Government's 'Bad Bank' Scam ................................................................................................................... 1847
SITUATIONAL ASSESSEMENT ................................................................................................................................................................... 1849
IBERIA - Credit Downgrades - At Precipice of "Non Investment Grade" .................................................................................................. 1849
IBERIA - Regional Bailout Bailouts a Massive Problem ............................................................................................................................ 1850
IBERIA - NPL Going Ballistic ..................................................................................................................................................................... 1851
IBERIA - Spanish Funding Problem .......................................................................................................................................................... 1852
IBERIA - The Giant Spanish Housing Bubble, Now Beginning to Implode ............................................................................................... 1857
IBERIA - Mal-Investment Coming Home to Roost..................................................................................................................................... 1859
IBERIA - Now a Capital Investment Problem ............................................................................................................................................ 1862
IBERIA - Banks on Artificial "Ponzi Bond" Life Support ............................................................................................................................ 1863
NEW-CHARTS China & Belgium Treasury Holdings vs China FX Reserves ........................................................................................ 1878
NEW-CHARTS Breakdown of Chinese Imports ..................................................................................................................................... 1879
NEW-CHARTS Chinese Imports Slow to 5 Year Low ............................................................................................................................ 1880
NEW-CHARTS Chinas Increasing Substitution of Imports for Made in China Products .................................................................... 1880
NEW-CHARTS Developing Economies Exposure to Chinese Domestic Demand ................................................................................ 1881
NEW-CHARTS Chinas GDP Monthly Tracker and Target .................................................................................................................... 1882
NEW-CHARTS China Matters Less for US Consumers than for Stock Investors ................................................................................. 1882
NEW-CHARTS Monthly Change in Foreign Reserves........................................................................................................................... 1883
NEW-CHARTS Monthly FX Purchases .................................................................................................................................................. 1884
NEW-CHARTS Chinas Estimated Productivity Growth Based on IP & Employment Shifts ................................................................. 1884
NEW-CHARTS Shanghai Composite Index Profits% Y-o-Y ............................................................................................................... 1885
NEW-CHARTS Corporate & Household Debt as % GDP ...................................................................................................................... 1885
NEW-CHARTS Weak Yuan Supported Much of 21-Year Export Rise to U.S. ...................................................................................... 1886
NEW-CHARTS xxxx ............................................................................................................................................................................... 1887
NEW-CHARTS Outstanding Balance of Margin Finance Shanghai Composite ................................................................................. 1887
NEW-CHARTS Currency Rout Goes Global as Risk Seen of 50% Loss .............................................................................................. 1887
NEW-CHARTS Yuan Trading Band ....................................................................................................................................................... 1888
NEW-CHARTS Historical Yuan FX Pattern ............................................................................................................................................ 1889
CHARTS China Plans to Spend Billions on Infrastructure in Pakistan .................................................................................................. 1890
CHARTS Chinas Proposed Silk Road Routes....................................................................................................................................... 1891
CHARTS China Activity Proxy & Official GDP........................................................................................................................................ 1892
CHARTS China Relaxes Commercial Bank Reserves ........................................................................................................................... 1893
CHARTS Chinese Balance of Payments ................................................................................................................................................ 1893
CHARTS Chinese Hot Money Flows ...................................................................................................................................................... 1894
CHARTS Falling Chinese Industrial Production ..................................................................................................................................... 1894
CHARTS Commodity Prices % Change Since July 2014 ...................................................................................................................... 1895
CHARTS Chinese Steel Demand, Iron Ore ............................................................................................................................................ 1895
CHARTS Chinese Rail Freight ............................................................................................................................................................... 1896
CHARTS Chinese Bank Assets versus US Bank Assets ....................................................................................................................... 1897
CHARTS Chinese Leverage and Underlying Nominal GDP .................................................................................................................. 1897
CHARTS Measures of Real & Nominal GDP Growth in China .............................................................................................................. 1898
CHARTS Chinese Total Debt & Breakdown........................................................................................................................................... 1898
CHARTS New Chinese Retail Stock Market Accounts .......................................................................................................................... 1899
CHARTS New Chinese Retail Stock Market Accounts-2 ....................................................................................................................... 1900
CHARTS Plummeting Chinese Consumer Confidence .......................................................................................................................... 1900
CHARTS Chinese PMI ............................................................................................................................................................................ 1901
CHARTS Chinese Exports versus Taiwan-Korea-Japan ....................................................................................................................... 1902
CHARTS - Falling Chinese Industrial Profits ............................................................................................................................................. 1903
CHARTS - Something Up (or rather down) with Chinese Currency? ....................................................................................................... 1903
CHARTS - Rising Margin Debt/Market Cap Ratio Suggests Liquidity m& Credit Risks ........................................................................... 1904
CHARTS - Corporate Bond Yields ............................................................................................................................................................. 1904
CHARTS - New Retail Stock Trading Accounts ........................................................................................................................................ 1905
CHARTS - Credit Growth 30% Above Trend for Private Sector Debt to GDP .......................................................................................... 1905
CHARTS - Falling Foreign Currency Reserves ......................................................................................................................................... 1906
CHARTS - 2 Year Yield Goes Negative .................................................................................................................................................... 1907
CHARTS - China Used More Cement in Last 3 Years than US in Entire 20th Century ............................................................................ 1907
CHARTS - China Real Activity Indicators Steel, Cement & Electricity ................................................................................................... 1908
CHARTS - Chinese Coal Consumption Falls ............................................................................................................................................ 1909
CHARTS - Chinese Y-o-Y Outstanding Credit & M2 ................................................................................................................................. 1909
CHARTS - Chinas Bank Reserve Requirement Ratio .............................................................................................................................. 1909
CHARTS - New Stock Market Trading Accounts ...................................................................................................................................... 1910
CHARTS Yuan Falls as Economy Weakens .......................................................................................................................................... 1911
CHARTS Yuans Currency Basket Composition .................................................................................................................................... 1911
CHARTS Yuan Diverges From Currency Basket ................................................................................................................................... 1912
CHARTS Industrial Output A Concern.................................................................................................................................................... 1912
CHARTS China On A Path Since 2008 That Historically Leads to A Currency Crisis........................................................................... 1913
CHARTS Borrowing Costs for Firms Remain High ................................................................................................................................ 1914
CHARTS Chinas Q1 GDP Deflator Falls to Zero .................................................................................................................................. 1915
CHARTS - Credit is Running Well Ahead of Economic Growth ................................................................................................................ 1916
CHARTS Productivity is Slumping As Debt Levels Soar........................................................................................................................ 1916
CHARTS Chinas Gross Fixed Capital Formation Problem ................................................................................................................... 1916
CHARTS Chinese Investment Peaking .................................................................................................................................................. 1917
CHARTS China Equity Flows ................................................................................................................................................................. 1918
CHARTS Credit Accumulation Rate Growth Comparisons ................................................................................................................. 1918
CHARTS Chinese Credit Growth ............................................................................................................................................................ 1919
CHARTS 5 Year Debt Growth versus GDP ............................................................................................................................................ 1919
CHARTS 5 Year Credit Growth .............................................................................................................................................................. 1920
CHARTS Growth Propensity of Credit Growth..................................................................................................................................... 1921
CHARTS Chinas Bad Loans - NPL........................................................................................................................................................ 1922
CHARTS Slowing Steel Consumption .................................................................................................................................................... 1923
CHARTS Shadow Banking System ........................................................................................................................................................ 1923
CHARTS Dramatic Chinese Housing Slowdown ................................................................................................................................... 1925
CHARTS - CHINA - A Global Slowdown on the Verge of Contraction...................................................................................................... 1926
CHARTS - CHINA - Chinese Credit Market .............................................................................................................................................. 1927
CHARTS - CHINA - PMI ............................................................................................................................................................................ 1928
CHARTS - CHINA - PMI-2 ......................................................................................................................................................................... 1929
CHARTS - CHINA - GDP ........................................................................................................................................................................... 1930
NEW-EMERGING MARKETS - History Suggests Asia Can Handle Fed Tightening ......................................................................... 2297
EMERGING MARKETS - Here's Which Emerging Markets Are Most Vulnerable To "External Shock" .......................................... 2299
EMERGING MARKETS - North Korea: Chinese Outsourcing Giant ................................................................................................... 2301
EMERGING MARKETS - Forced Changes & Advancements in the Normal "Plundering" Strategy ............................................... 2303
EMERGING MARKETS - Crisis Temporarily Halted .............................................................................................................................. 2305
EMERGING MARKETS - The plight of four Asian countries - China, India, Indonesia and Japan. ................................................. 2305
EMERGING MARKETS - Negative Current Accounts + Weak(ening) International Investment Positioning ........................................... 2311
EMERGING MARKETS - "TAPER" Shock Waves Across Asia ........................................................................................................... 2311
EMERGING MARKETS - Global Bond Yields React Together ............................................................................................................. 2313
EMERGING MARKETS - A Bumpy Ride for Emerging Markets ............................................................................................................... 2315
EMERGING MARKETS - Stunning Withdrawals.................................................................................................................................... 2321
EMERGING MARKETS - Bond Outflows Accelerating ......................................................................................................................... 2322
EMERGING MARKETS - This will make the 1997 Asian Crisis Seem Like an Early Warning .......................................................... 2324
EMERGING MARKETS - Developing Nations Feeling the Pain of Global Deleveraging Acceleration ........................................... 2326
EMERGING MARKETS - The Impact of "TAPER" ................................................................................................................................. 2328
SITUATIONAL ASSESSEMENT ................................................................................................................................................................... 2332
EMERGING MARKETS - What you Need to Know ...................................................................................................................................... 2332
EMERGING MARKETS - Comparative Ease of Doing Business........................................................................................................... 2334
EMERGING MARKETS - Importance of Employment, Equality and Per Capital Income ................................................................. 2335
ASEAN ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2338
ASEAN: A New Common Market .............................................................................................................................................................. 2338
ASIA ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2342
NEW- ASIA: CHARTS The Most Leveraged Region Today Corporate Leverage Debt/EBITDA ....................................................... 2342
NEW -ASIA: CHARTS Entering More Adverse Part of the Credit Cycle ............................................................................................... 2342
NEW- ASIA: CHARTS Real GDP Slowing, Real Funding Costs Are Rising ......................................................................................... 2343
ASIA: CHARTS Demographic Peaks of Working Age Populations ....................................................................................................... 2344
ASIA: CHARTS Impact of Demographic Change on Annual GDP Growth............................................................................................ 2345
ASIA: CHARTS Worlds 50 Busiest Container-Shipping Seaports ........................................................................................................ 2346
ASIA: CHARTS - REVENUE ..................................................................................................................................................................... 2347
ASIA: CHARTS EXPENDITURES .......................................................................................................................................................... 2347
ASIA: CHARTS SPENDING GAPS ........................................................................................................................................................ 2349
ASIA: CHARTS DEBT SERVICE ........................................................................................................................................................... 2349
ASIA: CHARTS - SINGAPORE ................................................................................................................................................................. 2351
ASIA: CHARTS INDONESIA CPI May 2014 .................................................................................................................................... 2352
ASIA: CHARTS INDONESIA CPI Aug 2013 .................................................................................................................................... 2352
ASIA: CHARTS A Short Term Dead Cat Bounce? .......................................................................................................................... 2353
ASIA: CHARTS Inflation Problems Abound ........................................................................................................................................ 2354
ASIA: CHARTS Healthier Public Debt and Borrowing Positions than DM ...................................................................................... 2354
ASIA: CHARTS - AUSTRALIA ................................................................................................................................................................... 2355
ASIA - Regional Risk-Reward .................................................................................................................................................................... 2357
ASIA - Credit Contraction Problems ...................................................................................................................................................... 2358
ASIA - Corporate Debt Levels Reflect Unintended Consequences of Mispricing & Mal-Investment ............................................. 2360
ASIA - Synchronized Markets .................................................................................................................................................................... 2362
ASIA - Caution Advised Regarding Positive South Korea Export Turnaround ......................................................................................... 2364
ASIA - Export Growth Looks Similar to Pre-2008 ................................................................................................................................. 2365
ASIA - Global Slowing Quickly a Worsening Situation Across Asia ................................................................................................. 2369
ASIA - Risks All on the Downside for Asia ........................................................................................................................................... 2370
ASIA - Demographic Headwinds ............................................................................................................................................................ 2373
ASIA - Pronounced Flight to Singapore Safety ......................................................................................................................................... 2374
LATIN AMERICA ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 2376
NEW-LATIN AMERICA Latin America Shouldn't Blame the Federal Reserve ................................................................................ 2376
NEW-COLUMBIA Colombian Peso Leads Currency Declines as Crude Falls ................................................................................ 2378
NEW-ARGENTINA Fewer Reserves Are a Plus for Argentine Bondholders................................................................................... 2378
VENEZUELA Signs of a Crack-up Boom and Dictatorship .............................................................................................................. 2379
VENEZUELA - Shortages & Hyperinflation ............................................................................................................................................ 2380
MIDDLE EAST ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 2382
TURKEY ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2382
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ....................................................................................................................................................................... 2383
BRICS................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2389
BRICS Population, GDP,GDP per Capita ............................................................................................................................................ 2389
BRICS Responsible for 43% of Global Growth in 2013 .................................................................................................................... 2390
BRICS A Short Term Dead Cat Bounce? ........................................................................................................................................ 2390
BRICS Inflation Problems Abound ...................................................................................................................................................... 2392
BRICS - EU Major Contributor to EM Current Account Deficit Growth .............................................................................................. 2393
BRICS - Insufficient Levels Prompt Russian-Chinese Support .......................................................................................................... 2394
BRICS - A Development Bank-Forex Reserve Pool-African Integration ............................................................................................ 2396
BRICS - 40% of World Population and 25% of World GDP .................................................................................................................. 2397
BRICS - $3 to $13B GDP in Ten Years ................................................................................................................................................... 2400
BRICS- A World Wide Distrust of Financial Markets Building ............................................................................................................ 2402
BRAZIL........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2404
NEW-BRAZIL - Brazil Budget Cuts Not Enough to Avoid More Downgrades .......................................................................................... 2404
NEW-BRAZIL - Brazil's Economy Is Now A Job Destruction Machine ..................................................................................................... 2405
NEW-BRAZIL - Local Rates Hit Hardest by Swift S&P Sovereign Downgrade to Junk ........................................................................... 2408
NEW-BRAZIL - Recession and High Rates Doomed Brazils Investment-Grade Rating ......................................................................... 2410
NEW-BRAZIL - Why Brazil Is Not Coming Back Anytime Soon ............................................................................................................... 2412
NEW-BRAZIL - Brazil Returns to Junk as Developing Nations Feel the Squeeze ................................................................................... 2412
BRAZIL - China Bails Out Brazil In $50 Billion Regional Power Grab ...................................................................................................... 2415
BRAZIL - Brazils Inflation-v Interest Rates Consumer Confidence Index ............................................................................................. 2422
BRAZIL - Brazils Depressed Consumer Confidence Index ...................................................................................................................... 2422
BRAZIL - Brazils Collapsing Confidence in the Construction Sector ....................................................................................................... 2423
BRAZIL - Brazil's Economy Is On The Verge Of Total Collapse ............................................................................................................... 2423
BRAZIL - Brazils Economy Just Imploded! ............................................................................................................................................... 2425
BRAZIL - Brazils economy slips into recession ........................................................................................................................................ 2428
BRAZIL - Inflation will remain high thanks to a "growth mismatch". .......................................................................................................... 2431
BRAZIL - Sharpest Decline in 2013 Growth Forecast ............................................................................................................................... 2432
RUSSIA Russia Has Stopped Trying to Protect Ruble Has FX Reserves Depleted. ................................................................................ 2435
RUSSIA 2015 Russia Consensus GDP Forecast .................................................................................................................................. 2436
RUSSIA Foreign Exchange Reserves .................................................................................................................................................... 2436
RUSSIA Exchange and Interest Rate ..................................................................................................................................................... 2437
RUSSIA - Real GDP and Car Sales .......................................................................................................................................................... 2437
RUSSIA Inflation Rate ............................................................................................................................................................................ 2438
RUSSIA GDP Forecast versus USDRUB ............................................................................................................................................... 2438
RUSSIA WTI Crude versus Ruble .......................................................................................................................................................... 2439
RUSSIA Russian Stocks versus Ruble, Russian 10 Y Yield versus 5Y CDS ........................................................................................ 2439
RUSSIA Russian CDS Spreads ............................................................................................................................................................. 2440
RUSSIA Winners and Losers of Oil Price Plunge .................................................................................................................................. 2441
RUSSIA CDS Spreads Has Widened 250bp Since Mid-June ............................................................................................................... 2442
RUSSIA Russian 5Y CDS versus USDRUB versus Russian Stocks .................................................................................................... 2443
RUSSIA Crude Oil in Rubles .................................................................................................................................................................. 2444
RUSSIA Russian Reserves versus USDRUB ........................................................................................................................................ 2444
RUSSIA Falling Oil Price Weighs on Economy and the Ruble .............................................................................................................. 2445
RUSSIA Russian Ruble versus Reserves .............................................................................................................................................. 2446
RUSSIA Russian Breakeven Oil Prices versus Liquids Production ....................................................................................................... 2447
RUSSIA Russian Refining & Upstream Economics-1 ............................................................................................................................ 2448
RUSSIA Russian Refining & Upstream Economics-2 ............................................................................................................................ 2449
RUSSIA Russian Holdings of US Treasuries ......................................................................................................................................... 2450
RUSSIA Russian 9 Year Gold Buying Spree ......................................................................................................................................... 2451
RUSSIA Net YTD Gold Purchases by the Central Bank of Russia ........................................................................................................ 2451
RUSSIAN RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED THIS TRI-SEMESTER ............................................................................................................ 2453
RUSSIA Russia signs up to $100 bn BRICS fund to rival IMF ............................................................................................................... 2453
INDIA.............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 2454
INDIA CAPEX Bottom Out? .................................................................................................................................................................... 2454
INDIA Real GDP and Car Sales ............................................................................................................................................................. 2455
INDIA Inflation ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 2456
INDIA - Inflation .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 2457
INDIA - WPI ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 2458
INDIA - Will be fine as long as it continues to reduce its deficit. ............................................................................................................... 2459
INDIA - Panic in India ................................................................................................................................................................................. 2460
INDIA - India Rupee Collapse Showing Signs of Exhaustion ............................................................................................................. 2462
INDIA - Watch Out For RE-Emergence of Food Price Inflation ........................................................................................................... 2463
SOUTH AFRICA ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 2465
MACRO Recovery? Central Banks Are Easing Policy For 50% of The World's Population ..................................................................... 2484
MACRO A World Recession? ..................................................................................................................................................................... 2486
MACRO - US the Safehaven in a Best of a Bad Lot Choice ...................................................................................................................... 2487
MACRO The Ambivalent Superpower ..................................................................................................................................................... 2489
MACRO Things Worse than Slow Growth ................................................................................................................................................. 2491
MACRO - US & Global Growth Will Slow Dramatically on a Per Capita Basis ............................................................................................ 2494
MACRO - Serious Structural US Problems Impeding Global Competitiveness ........................................................................................... 2496
MACRO - Output Gap .................................................................................................................................................................................... 2503
0B
..................................................... 2552
CHARTS - Standard of Living Decline and Bear Market in Real Terms Reflect Labor Participation ....................................................... 2552
.................................................................................................. 2553
CHARTS - Underemployment Gap ............................................................................................................................................................ 2554
1B
6B
.................. 2554
CHARTS - Participation Rate..................................................................................................................................................................... 2555
CHARTS - Part Time Employment ............................................................................................................................................................ 2555
NEW-CHARTS - U3 & U6 .......................................................................................................................................................................... 2556
NEW-CHARTS - Employment Situation Summary ................................................................................................................................... 2557
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 2564
NEW-RESEARCH - Part-Time Jobs Soar By 437,000; Full-Time Jobs Tumble, Stay Firmly Under Pre-Recession Highs .................... 2564
NEW-RESEARCH - The "Illegal Immigrant" Recovery? The Real Stunner In The Jobs Report .............................................................. 2565
RESEARCH - Gallup CEO: "America's 5.6% Unemployment Is One Big Lie" ......................................................................................... 2570
RESEARCH - This Is Why Hewlett-Packard Is Firing 58,000 ................................................................................................................... 2572
RESEARCH - American Express to cut more than 4,000 jobs ................................................................................................................. 2573
SENTIMENT: For CNBC, 2014 Was The Worst Year. Ever. ..................................................................................................................... 2663
SENTIMENT: An Astounding Number Of Americans Aren't Investing A Cent ..................................................................................... 2665
SENTIMENT: US Households to Withdraw $430 Billion From Stocks In 2014 ...................................................................................... 2670
SENTIMENT: Elliott Wave's View from the Top ........................................................................................................................................ 2673
BUSINESS CYCLE CONSUMPTION ............................................................................................................................................................... 2677
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ....................................................................................................................................................................... 2677
CHARTS & TABLES OF NOTE ..................................................................................................................................................................... 2681
NEW-CHARTS Retail Sales Control Group Y/Y and Sequential Change ............................................................................................. 2681
NEW-CHARTS Retail Sales Y-0-Y ......................................................................................................................................................... 2681
NEW-CHARTS Retail Sales Ex Auto...................................................................................................................................................... 2682
NEW-CHARTS VICE Index and Discretionary Spending....................................................................................................................... 2683
NEW-CHARTS Value of Manufacturers New Orders for Consumer Goods Industries ........................................................................ 2684
NEW-CHARTS y-0-y Chain Store Sales ................................................................................................................................................ 2684
NEW-CHARTS Y-0-Y Factory Orders .................................................................................................................................................... 2685
NEW-CHARTS Annual Growth in Retail Sales ...................................................................................................................................... 2685
CHARTS Retail Sales Have 2 Mo Change Drop Dating Back to 2009 .................................................................................................. 2686
CHARTS Retails Sales Mo-o-Mo Drops ................................................................................................................................................. 2686
CHARTS Estimated Change in Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services by Kind .............................................................................. 2687
CHARTS What Americans Spent Their "Gas Savings" On .................................................................................................................... 2688
CHARTS Retail Sales-Previous Month Comparisons ............................................................................................................................. 2690
CHARTS No Offset to Plunging Gas Sales in Ex-Auto, Ex Gas ............................................................................................................ 2691
CHARTS Deflated Retail (ex Auto) Christmas and Aftermath ............................................................................................................... 2691
CHARTS Retail Sales Control Group Y-o-Y and Sequential Change .................................................................................................... 2692
CHARTS Total Household Debt Added Since the Great Financial Crisis .............................................................................................. 2692
CHARTS Total Household Debt Added in Q4 2014 ............................................................................................................................... 2693
CHARTS Real Personal Consumption ................................................................................................................................................... 2693
CHARTS Discretionary Retail Sales ....................................................................................................................................................... 2694
CHARTS False Signal of Consumer Re-Leveraging .............................................................................................................................. 2696
CHARTS Sub-Prime Lending Drives Spending ..................................................................................................................................... 2697
CHARTS Retail Sales ............................................................................................................................................................................. 2697
CHARTS Retail Sales - Details ............................................................................................................................................................... 2699
CHARTS Consumer Credit Growth Since Cycle Peak ........................................................................................................................... 2700
CHARTS Real Income is The Key Driver of Consumption Spending .................................................................................................... 2700
CHARTS Consumer Credit Drove Household Debt in Q2 Mortgage Debt Lagged ............................................................................ 2701
CHARTS Discretionary Spending Showing Signs of Cracking .............................................................................................................. 2701
CHARTS - Real Disposable Personal Income .......................................................................................................................................... 2702
CHARTS - Real Consumption Expenditure ............................................................................................................................................... 2704
CHARTS - Consumer Credit Deleveraging ............................................................................................................................................... 2705
CHARTS - Core Retail Growth .................................................................................................................................................................. 2706
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 2707
RESEARCH - Headwinds for US Consumers & Home Buyers ................................................................................................................ 2707
RESEARCH - Golden Era of the 1950s/60s Was an Anomaly, Not the Default Setting .......................................................................... 2708
RESEARCH - Golden Era of the 1950s/60s Was an Anomaly, Not the Default Setting .......................................................................... 2709
RESEARCH - 95% of Consumer Credit Lending Going towards Student & Car Loans ................................................................... 2711
RESEARCH - Thanksgiving Retail Sales Results ..................................................................................................................................... 2713
RESEARCH - Gallup Survey Shows -10% Reduction in Christmas Buying Plans ........................................................................... 2716
RESEARCH - The Wal-Mart Measure or How the US Consumer Is the Global Engine .................................................................... 2717
RESEARCH - A Sequential Decline in Wages ....................................................................................................................................... 2718
RESEARCH - Final Sales Signals Pending Potential Recession on the Horizon ............................................................................. 2719
RESEARCH - Consumers Using Savings to Maintain Life Style ........................................................................................................ 2719
RESEARCH - The Destruction of America's Middle Class .................................................................................................................. 2722
RESEARCH - Dramatic Slowing in Restaurant Business .................................................................................................................... 2722
RESEARCH - Signs of Serious Troubles .................................................................................................................................................. 2723
RESEARCH - Falling Real Disposable Income means Falling Consumption ................................................................................... 2726
SITUATIONAL SUMMARY & ANALYSIS ..................................................................................................................................................... 2728
BUSINESS CYCLE - GROWTH .......................................................................................................................................................................... 2734
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ....................................................................................................................................................................... 2734
CHARTS & TABLES OF NOTE ..................................................................................................................................................................... 2738
NEW-CHARTS US Q2 GDP Consensus Forecast versus Atlanta Feds 0.7% ..................................................................................... 2738
NEW-CHARTS Q1 2015 US GDP Growth Consensus Estimate ........................................................................................................... 2740
NEW-CHARTS US Business Investment Current versus Previous Recoveries ................................................................................. 2740
NEW-CHARTS US Vehicle Miles 12 Month Total All Roads ........................................................................................................... 2741
NEW-CHARTS CAPEX Use of Cash .................................................................................................................................................. 2742
NEW-CHARTS Change in Total Private Industries ................................................................................................................................ 2742
NEW-CHARTS US Private Construction Spending ............................................................................................................................... 2743
CHARTS Ratio of Coincident-to-Lagging Conference Board Indices .................................................................................................... 2744
CHARTS GDP Q4 2014 Revised Components Table ............................................................................................................................ 2745
CHARTS Quarterly Change in % Contributions to GDP ........................................................................................................................ 2745
CHARTS Three Reasons CAPEX is Faltering ....................................................................................................................................... 2745
CHARTS ISM Rally Has Petered Out & Expected Inflation Has Fallen ................................................................................................. 2746
CHARTS Philly Fed Rolling Over ........................................................................................................................................................... 2747
CHARTS US Profits & Sales Have Stalled ............................................................................................................................................. 2748
CHARTS Real GDP versus CAPEX ....................................................................................................................................................... 2748
CHARTS Change In Inventories Inflated from Lack of Demand ......................................................................................................... 2749
CHARTS US GDP Revision for Q4-2014 ............................................................................................................................................... 2750
CHARTS Quarterly GDP by Component Breakdown ............................................................................................................................. 2750
CHARTS Long Term US GDP Growth Estimates FOMC versus CBO ............................................................................................... 2752
CHARTS US Real Domestic Product Running Out of Runway .......................................................................................................... 2752
CHARTS Steadily Falling Real US Growth Estimates ........................................................................................................................... 2754
CHARTS US Power Consumption Tells the Real Story of US Growth & De-Industrialization .............................................................. 2755
CHARTS US Real Trade Gap (Ex-Petroleum) ....................................................................................................................................... 2755
CHARTS Consecutive Quarters of Contracting Growth Looming .......................................................................................................... 2756
CHARTS Bloombergs Consensus GDP Forecasts 2011-2014.......................................................................................................... 2757
CHARTS GDP Growth During Current Recovery Lags Past Expectations ........................................................................................... 2757
CHARTS Trends of Output, Hours and Productivity .............................................................................................................................. 2758
CHARTS Weak US Capacity Utilization ................................................................................................................................................. 2759
CHARTS A US Recession Likely IF Liquidity is not increased and TAPER Sustained ......................................................................... 2759
CHARTS Barrons Sees 4% Growth The Ultimate Contrarian Indicator ............................................................................................. 2760
CHARTS Firms Revising Lower Q1 Growth on Weakening Retail Sales .............................................................................................. 2761
CHARTS Negative Economic Surprises Began in November ............................................................................................................... 2761
CHARTS What Americans Experience Daily and its Isnt Growth ......................................................................................................... 2762
CHARTS - Manufacturing .......................................................................................................................................................................... 2763
CHARTS - Exports ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 2763
CHARTS - Durable Goods ......................................................................................................................................................................... 2764
CHARTS - NFIB Small Business CAPEX .................................................................................................................................................. 2764
CHARTS - US Manufacturing Conditions Deteriorating ............................................................................................................................ 2765
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 2766
NEW-RESEARCH - Biggest Inventory Build In History Prevents Total Collapse Of The US Economy .................................................. 2766
RESEARCH - BEA Revises 4th Quarter 2014 GDP Growth Downward to 2.18% ................................................................................... 2767
RESEARCH - The U.S. Economy is Dead ................................................................................................................................................ 2769
RESEARCH - Q4 GDP Revised Down To 2.2% From 5.0%: Full Breakdown ......................................................................................... 2771
RESEARCH - US Q1 GDP ........................................................................................................................................................................ 2774
RESEARCH - US GDP Growth Forecasts ................................................................................................................................................ 2779
RESEARCH - Economic Recoveries Don't Look Like This! ................................................................................................................ 2779
RESEARCH - 2nd Worst Decade in Over 220 Years (And Getting Worse) ........................................................................................ 2780
RESEARCH - US Economy is being fundamentally transformed ............................................................................................................. 2782
RESEARCH - Shrinking CAPEX, Expanding Buybacks and Dividends ............................................................................................. 2785
REFERENCE - Prior Posts .......................................................................................................................................................................... 2789
RESEARCH - US Economic Recovery Has Peaked ............................................................................................................................. 2789
SITUATIONAL SUMMARY & ANALYSIS ..................................................................................................................................................... 2794
ECONOMIC CYCLE, INVESTMENT CYCLE, SECTOR ROTATION ................................................................................................................. 2798
ECONOMIC CYCLE, INVESTMENT CYCLE, SECTOR ROTATION ................................................................................................................. 2806
FISCAL POLICY US NOW HAS NATIONAL PRODUCTIVITY & STATE AND LOCAL FISCAL PROBLEMS ......................................... 2990
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ............................................................................................................................................................................. 2992
NEW-PEURTO RICO .................................................................................................................................................................................... 2992
NEW-ILLINOIS & CHICAGO ......................................................................................................................................................................... 2992
A SHRINKING BUDGET DEFICIT IS NOT ALL GOOD NEWS ................................................................................................................... 2993
FISCAL MATTERS ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 2995
FEDERAL DEBT HOLDINGS & FINANCING...................................................................................................................................................... 2997
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 2997
NEW-FINANCING CHINA SELLING The Mysterious Belgium Treasury Holder Has Started Selling .................................................... 2997
NEW-FINANCING CHINA SELLING China & Belgium Holdings v China Forex Reserves-1 ................................................................. 2997
NEW-FINANCING CHINA SELLING China & Belgium Holdings v China Forex Reserves-2 ................................................................. 2998
NEW-FINANCING CHINA SELLING China & Belgium Holdings Change............................................................................................... 2998
NEW-FINANCING Breakdown of US Debt Holdings as of 2014 ................................................................................................................ 2999
CHARTS US Federal Government Debt to GDP ....................................................................................................................................... 2999
CHARTS Drivers of US Debt ...................................................................................................................................................................... 3000
CHARTS Total Government Expenditures versus Real GDP .................................................................................................................... 3001
CHARTS US Debt About to Pass $18T and 102% of GDP ....................................................................................................................... 3001
CHARTS US Non-Financial Debt-to-GDP Since 1952 .............................................................................................................................. 3002
RESEARCH - $70T Off-Balance Sheet Federal Liabilities ....................................................................................................................... 3003
FEDERAL BUDGET SPENDING ......................................................................................................................................................................... 3006
CHARTS Mandatory versus Discretionary Spending ................................................................................................................................. 3006
CHARTS Interest Costs to Dwarf Virtually Every Federal Expense .......................................................................................................... 3006
CHARTS Looming Increases in Baby-Boomer Driven Deficits .................................................................................................................. 3007
CHARTS Federal GAAP Based Deficit Growth & Federal Obligations Growth ......................................................................................... 3008
CHARTS - US Government Budget Surplus / Deficit .................................................................................................................................... 3009
CHARTS - Government Receipts & Outlay Growth Improves Significantly .................................................................................................. 3009
CHARTS - Federal Budget Surplus / Deficit .................................................................................................................................................. 3009
CHARTS - Real Federal Government Purchases ......................................................................................................................................... 3010
FEDERAL BUDGET - What You Need to Know ................................................................................................................................................. 3011
BUDGET - President Obama's Entire Budget In One Chart .................................................................................................................... 3012
BUDGET - A Budget That Institutionalizes Big Government .................................................................................................................. 3013
BUDGET - Budget Deficit Shrinking and Shrinking Infrastructure Spending ................................................................................................ 3018
RESEARCH - CROMNIBUS - The Real Reason Why It Needed to be Passed .......................................................................................... 3019
RESEARCH - $89.5 trillion in liabilities ......................................................................................................................................................... 3021
RESEARCH - The Federal Government is "cooking the books"! ................................................................................................................. 3025
RESEARCH NIA 2015 U.S. Debt Crisis Report ......................................................................................................................................... 3029
STATE & LOCAL BUDGETS ............................................................................................................................................................................... 3039
CHARTS State & Local Tax Revenues ...................................................................................................................................................... 3039
NEW-RESEARCH - Almost Half of US States Are Officially Broke ........................................................................................................ 3039
RESEARCH - State & Local Government Crisis ....................................................................................................................................... 3044
RESEARCH - State & Local Government Drag ............................................................................................................................................ 3050
UNFUNDED LIABILITIES .................................................................................................................................................................................... 3055
RESEARCH Private Pension Fund Levels Fall Behind ............................................................................................................................. 3055
RESEARCH Professor Laurence Kotlikoff on the $210T Fiscal Gap ...................................................................................................... 3059
NEW-US REGULATORY COSTS ....................................................................................................................................................................... 3062
NEW-CHARTS Annual Cost of Federal Regulation 2012, $1.863T ....................................................................................................... 3062
NEW-RESEARCH Investor Uncertainty ..................................................................................................................................................... 3062
US TAX POLICY & ISSUES ................................................................................................................................................................................ 3064
CHARTS 7 Corporate CEOs Paid More Than Corporation Paid Tax ........................................................................................................ 3064
CHARTS - Americas 100 highest-paid CEOs, 29 received more in pay than company federal income taxes ........................................... 3066
CHARTS Employed Population of America Tax Exposure ..................................................................................................................... 3068
CHARTS US Has the Highest Nominal Corporate Tax Rate in the Industrialized World ....................................................................... 3068
CHARTS How Banks Use Dividend Arbitrage to Reduce Client Tax ...................................................................................................... 3069
RESEARCH - Tax Rate Comparisons ........................................................................................................................................................ 3070
RESEARCH - Payroll Tax Holiday ................................................................................................................................................................ 3070
RESEARCH - Taxes & Spending .................................................................................................................................................................. 3071
RESEARCH - Avoiding Taxes ..................................................................................................................................................................... 3075
MISC CHARTS & TABLES OF NOTE ................................................................................................................................................................. 3078
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Family Dollar to cut jobs, shut 370 stores as sales fall ................................................................. 3346
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - The Death of a 71% Consumption Driven Economy ...................................................................... 3349
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Getting Worse Fast ............................................................................................................................ 3350
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Unfolding Implosion ........................................................................................................................... 3352
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Unfolding Implosion - II ..................................................................................................................... 3353
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Financial Crisis II Coming ................................................................................................................. 3358
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Indoor Mall Retail in Trouble ............................................................................................................. 3365
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Mortgage bonds reflect diverging fortunes of US malls ....................................................................... 3368
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Dead Mall Syndrome: The Self-Reinforcing Death Spiral of Retail ..................................................... 3370
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - The First Domino to fall: Retail-CRE (Commercial Real Estate) ......................................................... 3372
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - After Seven Lean Years: US Commercial Real Estate: The Present Position and Future Prospects 3376
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Retail Sales Cannibalization ................................................................................................................ 3382
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Tsunami of Retail Store Closings and Downsizings Coming ............................................................... 3383
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Thanksgiving Retail Sales Results ....................................................................................................... 3386
SITUATIONAL SUMMARY & ANALYSIS ..................................................................................................................................................... 3390
OVERVIEW ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 3390
NATIONAL STATISTICS: COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE ....................................................................................................................... 3391
Plan
Release
Date
III.
Monday following
3rd Saturday
of the Month
IV.
II.
Day Following
Monthly Labor
Report
(~ 1st Saturday)
Service
Coverage
Tipping Points
Tipping Points
Abstraction
Global Macro
Abstraction
US Economy
Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis
Market Analytics
Fundamental Analysis
Market Analytics
Risk Analysis
Synthesis
Commentary
Synthesis
Commentary
Thesis
Conclusions
Focus