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A modelling analysis to determine N-risk indicators

I. VOGELER, R. CICHOTA, V. SNOW1, R. MUIRHEAD2, and C. DE KLEIN2
AgResearch, Private Bag 11008, Palmerston North, New Zealand
AgResearch, Private Bag 11008, Lincoln Research Centre, Christchurch 8140, New Zealand
2
AgResearch, Private Bag 11008, Invermay Agricultural Centre, Mosgiel 9053, New Zealand
1

ABSTRACT
The APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems SIMulator) model was used to determine risk indicators of
nitrate leaching from urine patches. The simulations used climate data from three climate stations within the
Canterbury area, with average annual rainfall of 600, 800 and 1200 mm, and average annual temperatures
ranging from 9.8 to 11.8oC. Six different generic soil types were used in the simulations. Deposition of a urine
patch was simulated by applying an equivalent of 250 or 750 kg N/ha, and these depositions were, in separate
simulation runs, done every month. The total amount of N leached was summed over three years following the
urine deposition. The indicators of risk of N leaching were determined by stepwise regression and
classification and regression tree (CART) analysis. The month of urine deposition largely affects the risk of N
leaching, with a higher leaching risk from January to April, and a lower risk from May to December. Also N
leaching was higher in the sandy soil compared with finer textured soils. The most important predictive
variable for N leaching in the sandy soil was cumulative precipitation in the 3 month following urine
deposition, followed by cumulative rain in the first week after deposition, and the average nitrate amount in the
top 20 cm of the soil 2 weeks prior to deposition. The above results are an initial step to identify indicators of
areas and timings with high risk of N leaching.

INTRODUCTION
An objective within the Pastoral 21
environment programme (funded jointly by FRST,
DairyNZ, Fonterra and Meat & Wool NZ) is the
development of a farmer-friendly tool to manage the
risk for nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) losses to
water ways and groundwater. This tool is aimed at
assisting farmers to make more informed tactical
and operational management decisions to minimise
N and P losses to water bodies, and thus help to
deliver cleaner water.
A prerequisite for the development of such a
tool is the determination of early indicators of risk
of contaminant losses to water. These indicators
must be easily measured, forecast early enough so
that management action can be taken to avoid the
risk, and must be appropriate for a range of
environmental conditions. The risk indicators can
also be used to develop additional mitigation
options and management strategies to reduce losses.
In this paper we present a modelling exercise
performed to identify early indicators of high risk of
N leaching, including site specific factors such as
soil type, average annual rainfall, average annual
temperature, as well as dynamic factors, such as
time of deposition and rainfall following urine
deposition.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

APSIM modelling
The APSIM model (Keating et al., 2003),
utilising SWIM (Verburg et al., 1996) as the soil
module and AgPasture (Li and Snow, 2010) as the
pasture module was used for determining N risk

indicators. Climate data from 3 locations (here

called Lincoln, Darfield, & Alford Forest) from the
Virtual Climate Station database of NIWA (Tait &
Turner
2005;
Cichota
et
al.
2008),
(www.cliflo.niwa.co.nz) were used. These cover
average annual temperatures from 9.8 to 11.8oC and
average annual rainfall values of about 600, 800 and
1200 mm. Nitrogen leaching data was generated
using multiple runs with a complete factorial
combination of these three climate stations, six
different generic soils (sand, loam, clay loam, silt
clay, pumice loam, pumice sand), and two N
deposition rates (250 and 750 kg N/ha), and 12
separate application dates (once every month). The
simulations were run for 20 different years, nitrogen
fertiliser was applied at a rate of 20 kg N/ha/month
from September to June, and the pasture was
irrigated and managed under a cut and carry system.
This cumulative nitrate leaching over 3 years
after deposition was related to site specific factors,
including soil type, rainfall, average annual
temperature as well as dynamic factors at various
times and time periods over the year, such as nitrate
concentration in the soil, soil water content,
precipitation, precipitation exceeding certain values,
pasture growth rate.
Statistical analysis
For the statistical analysis the JMP statistical
package was used (www.JMP.com). Stepwise
regression analysis was used to determine the
factors that explained most of the variance in N
leaching, and these factors were then used in a
classification and regression tree (CART) analysis
with directed splits.

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Vogeler et al. N-risk indicators modelling

RESULTS
APSIM model simulations
Simulations runs with the three climate
stations, six soil types, two applications amounts, 12
application timings, and 20 years, a total of nearly
9000 different combinations, showed that N
leaching was highly variable, with between 7 and
94% of the N applied leached in the three years
following urine depositions of 250 and 750 kg N/ha.
As expected, more N leaching occurred under the
light pumice sand and sandy soils compared to soils
with higher silt and clay content (Figure 1).

Apart from the soil type, the month of

deposition also largely affected the amount of N
leaching, with a higher leaching risk from January
to April, and a lower risk from May to December
(Figure 2).
September and October urine
depositions had the lowest leaching risk. The
pattern was similar for all soils. The variation in N
leaching from any month was quite large, as shown
for a sandy soil and a deposition amount of 750 kg
N/ha and a clay loam at a deposition amount of 250
kg N/ha (Figure 2).

FIGURE 1: Effect of Soil Type and N deposition amount on nitrogen leaching.

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FIGURE 2: Effect of month of urine deposition on nitrogen leaching for all 6 soils and 3 climate stations
simulated (left) and variability in nitrogen leaching for a sand at a deposition amount of 750 kg N/ha and clay
loam at a deposition amount of 250 kg N/ha (right).

Proceedings of the 4th Australasian Dairy Science Symposium 2010

223

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FIGURE 3: Stepwise regression analysis showing cumulative predictive accuracy for N leaching, as
measured by the coefficient of determination (R2), after adding additional factors.
To determine the factors driving this variability
a stepwise regression analysis was performed for the
sandy soil with the Darfield climate and a deposition
rate of 750 kg N/ha. The analyses were restricted to
only the most risky deposition months (January to
April). Cumulative precipitation in the 3 months
following urine deposition was the most important
predictive variable, followed by cumulative rain in
the first week after deposition, and the average
nitrate amount in the top 20 cm of the soil over 2
weeks prior to deposition (Figure 3).
Based on the stepwise regression results, a
CART analysis was performed to identify the
factors that lead to high risk of leaching. For the
sandy soil the risk of N leaching from January to
April was high if the cumulative precipitation in the
3 month following urine deposition was higher than
190 mm, and the nitrate amount in top soil prior to
depositions was higher than 13.5 kg N/ha. The risk
of leaching is lower if the cumulative precipitation
in the 3 months following urine deposition was
lower than 190 mm, and the nitrate amount in top
soil lower than 12.1 kg N/ha.

CONCLUSION
To examine the environmental conditions and
variables that lead to high risk of N leaching from
urine patches, APSIM simulation runs with 9000
combinations were conducted, and statistically

analysed via stepwise regression analysis and CART

analysis. The statistical analysis determined the
relative contribution of each predictor variable in
explaining N leaching. For a sandy soil and a urine
deposition rate of 750 kg N/ha the most important
predictive variables for N leaching were: cumulative
precipitation in the 3 month following urine
deposition, cumulative rain in the first week after
deposition, and the average nitrate amount in the top
20 cm of the soil 2 weeks prior to deposition. The
month of deposition largely affected the amount of
N leached, with a higher risk from January to April,
and a lower risk from May to December, and the
least risk in September and October. This is likely
to be linked to higher uptake of nitrogen by the
pasture from urea application in early springtime.
The above results are an initial step to identify
indicators of areas and timings with high risk of N
leaching and help to develop management strategies
to reduce such losses. Further analyses are however
needed to fully understand the determinants of the
magnitude of N leaching.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This work was conducted under the P21
Environment Programme, jointly funded by FRST,
DairyNZ, Fonterra and Meat & Wool New Zealand.

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Vogeler et al. N-risk indicators modelling

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