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R
EE E K L Y
P
O
Blow by Blow
On
R
Bullions,
T
Base metals,
05 OCT 09 OCT 2015

Energy

MAJOR EVENTS
A slump in world trade and a slowdown in China took their toll on the US economy
last month as surveys revealed that firms delayed hiring and factory orders
contracted.US businesses created only 142,000 jobs in September, according to
official figures, about 64,000 fewer than expected by analysts. The report by the US
Labor department also found that employers kept average pay rises at zero and
thousands of workers quit the labor market, taking the participation rate back to
levels last seen in the 1970s.The much anticipated data was widely seen as ending any
expectations of an interest rate rise by the US Federal Reserve before Christmas. The
lack of any pressure on wages is likely to be the biggest factor persuading Fed officials
against a rise from the current rate of near zero, which was anticipated last month
until it became obvious that the slowing Chinese economy and the panic it caused on
global markets formed a powerful case against a rate rise. Separate surveys added to
the gloomy picture, showing that US factory orders fell 1.7% in August, compared with
expectations of a 1.3% decline, and business activity in New York contracted for the
first time in eight months in September. The Dow Jones fell more than 200 points on
the news, only to recover to a 27 point loss by 1700 BST.
Crude prices erased early losses to rise nearly 2 percent on Friday after a report
showing the fifth weekly decline in the U.S. oil rig count renewed the debate over
falling production in the world's top oil consumer. Softer-than-expected U.S. jobs data
and other economic statistics had weighed on oil earlier, along with reduced threats
to oil installations in the U.S. East Coast from Hurricane Joaquin. U.S. energy
companies this week cut the number of rigs drilling for oil by 26, a weekly survey by
oil services company Baker Hughes showed. It was the largest number of rigs idled in
a week since April. The data turned around oil prices that had been down about 1
percent earlier. U.S. crude closed up 1.8 percent, at $45.54 a barrel. It had slid 77
cents at the session low. Global benchmark Brent was up 50 cents, or 1 percent, at
$48.90 a barrel, after falling as much as 76 cents earlier. Oil prices were still down on
the week, though, with Brent down 1 percent and U.S. crude off 0.6 percent. Despite
drilling cutbacks, U.S. oil production edged up to 9.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in
July from 9.3 million bpd in June, according to the latest U.S. Energy Information
Administration's (EIA) 914 production report.
Several commodity items from the base metals segment experienced a slight advance
on last trading at the London Metals Exchange on sustained demand pickup and
enhanced buying behavior from investors. Investor speculations have improved on
news that Chinese steel factories are now experiencing gradual stabilization after
minor improvements in the economy in the past few days. Add to this is the upcoming
Golden Week holidays, which saw China-based investors taking off from joining the
bourse that sparked short-coverings from other investors. Copper recorded an
impressive hike at US$5,204 per ton, up by almost US$44 on Wednesday trading.
However, stocks at warehouses declined by a net 3,400 ton to 320,400 ton, the
sharpest decline since the last trading sessions in June, leaving cash/threes spread a
US$15.75 backwardation. The segment remains the worst performing commodity
sector on the global market. In the second quarter of 2015, the segments weakest,
the overall sector of metals traded on LME was down 6.18 percent due to the market
rout in China and the unprecedented stability of the U.S. dollar against other major
currencies.In July, when Chinese domestic equity prices plunged, the government
introduced new rules and regulations to inhibit or ban selling and encourage or
demand buying. The rest of the world has depended on Chinese growth for years now.

Gold Surges on
Non-Farm
Employment
Data.

US oil settles up
1.8%, at $45.54 a
barrel.

Base metals
slightly improve on
LME.

ECONOMIC CALENDER
DATE & TIME

DESCRIPTION

FORECAST

PREVIOUS

Oct 5 7:15pm

Final Services PMI

55.7

55.6

7:30pm

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

58.0

59.0

7:30pm

Labor Market Conditions Index m/m

Oct 6 6:00pm

Trade Balance

-42.2B

-41.9B

7:30pm

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism

44.6

42.0

Oct 7 3:00am

FOMC Member Williams Speaks

8:00pm

Crude Oil Inventories

4.0M

10:31pm

10-y Bond Auction

2.24/2.7

Oct 8 12:30am

Consumer Credit m/m

18.6B

19.1B

6:00pm

Unemployment Claims

274K

277K

8:00pm

Natural Gas Storage

98B

10:31pm

30-y Bond Auction

2.98/2.5

11:30pm

FOMC Meeting Minutes

Oct 9 1:00am

FOMC Member Williams Speaks

6:00pm

Import Prices m/m

6:40pm

FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks

7:30pm

Wholesale Inventories m/m

Day 1 ALL

IMF Meetings

11:00pm

FOMC Member Evans Speaks

Oct 10 Day 2 ALL

IMF Meetings

2.1

-0.5%

-1.8%

0.1%

-0.1%

GOLD
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX GOLD showed bearish movement
found resistance of 27000 and drag
towards the support level of 26000,
but in last trading session of Comex it
bounce back towards the 1140 dollar
due to US data. Now, if it is able to
maintain above 27000 then next major
resistance level is seen in the range of
27500-27800. On lower side if it
sustains below 26000 then next
support level is seen around 25500.

PIVOT TABLE
STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell
below 26300 for the target of 25750,
with stop loss of 27100.

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

26140

25740

24425

27100

27500

27900

SILVER
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX SILVER last week showed bearish
movement, unable to hold above
38.2% retracement and closed below
23.6% retracement level i.e. 34900 but
in Comex due to US data bounce back
towards 15 dollar. Now, on higher side
if it maintains above 36500 then only it
may show some bullishness towards
the resistance level of 37000. On lower
side below 35000 next support level is
33500.

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this
point of time is to buy above 36800 for
the target of 38000, with stop loss of
35000.

PIVOT TABLE
S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

35250

34400

33500

36800

37520

38300

CRUDEOIL
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX Crude oil showed sideways
movement and consolidated in
between of symmetrical triangle
pattern. Now, if it maintain above 3110
in coming sessions then next
important resistance level is seen
around 3260. On the other hand
sustaining below 2900 will again drag it
towards the support level of 2800.

PIVOT TABLE

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to
sell below 2900 for the targets of 28002700, with stop loss of 3150.

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

2880

2735

2570

3100

3260

3420

COPPER
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX Copper last week showed
sideways movement found support
around 326 and 23.6% retracement
level i.e. 348.60 act as resistance.
Now, if it sustains below 326 on lower
side then next important support level
is seen around 315. On the other hand
if it maintain above 350 then next
resistance will seen around 360.

PIVOT TABLE

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell
below 335, with stop loss of 350 for the
target of 326.

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

330

320

310

348.60

357.60

368

DISCLAIMER

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