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Market Drivers and Barriers, Technology Trends, and Global Market Forecasts
Distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) systems offer the benefit of producing electricity
onsite, thereby reducing the need to build new transmission capacity and avoiding line
losses. Distributed generation can offer significant benefits to consumers while adding
resiliency to an electric grid based on a traditional centralized model. These systems
are used in applications ranging from residential to small commercial to industrial use.
Though this market is still primarily driven by government incentives, distributed solar
PV will continue its steady march toward grid parity in major markets over the next
few years.
The global distributed solar photovoltaic market contracted slightly in 2012, due to
reduced market activity in Italy and Germany. However, growth in the United States,
China, Japan, and other countries continued, driven by solar PV module price
reductions, the growth of third-party financing models, and feed-in tariffs. Navigant
Research forecasts that from 2013 to 2018 220 GW of distributed solar PV will be
installed worldwide, representing $540.3 billion in revenue.
This Navigant Research report analyzes the global market for distributed solar PV systems less than 1 MW in capacity and
provides an assessment of the most important market drivers, technology trends, and challenges faced by the growing
distributed solar PV industry. Forecasts for average installed prices and annual installations, segmented by region, extend
through 2018.
TECHNOLOGIES
Solar photovoltaics
(PV)
Crystalline modules
Thin-film modules
Inverters
Balance of system
(BOS)
GEOGRAPHIES
North America
Europe
Asia Pacific
Rest of World
Residential
Small commercial
Industrial onsite
generation
Schools
Farms
Wineries
Campuses
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
Market Issues
2.1 Defining Distributed Solar Energy Generation
2.2 Distributed Solar PV Market Overview and Key Trends
2.2.1 Distributed Generation Can Still Mean Thinking Big
2.2.2 Distributed Solar Gains Public and Political Traction
versus Centralized Solar
2.2.3 Solar PV Reaching Grid Parity
2.3 Market Drivers and Legislative / Regulatory Mandates
2.3.1 Financial Incentives, Public Policies, and Trade
Wars
2.3.1.1 FITs
2.3.1.1.1. North America
2.3.1.1.2. Europe
2.3.1.1.3. Asia Pacific
2.3.2 Net Metering Policies
2.3.3 Renewable Energy Certificates
2.3.4 Utility Asset Ownership Models
2.3.5 Residential and Commercial Solar PV Leases and
Power Purchase Agreements
2.4 Implementation Issues
2.4.1 Grid Interconnection
2.4.2 Standards and Permitting
2.4.3 Utilities Fear of Higher Penetration of Renewables
Technology Trends
3.1 PV Module Oversupply Leads to Significant Price
Reductions
3.2 Inverter and Balance of System Price Declines
3.3 Technology Trend: Microinverters, AC Modules, and DC
Optimizers
3.3.1 Microinverters and AC Panels
3.3.2 DC Optimizers
German Utility Meets More than 100% of Load with Solar and
Wind on May 8, 2011
Executive Summary
1.1 Distributed Solar PV Market Overview and Key Trends
1.2 Key Trends in Distributed Solar Energy Generation
1.2.1 Distributed Solar PV Systems Forecast
Market Forecasts
4.1 Distributed Solar PV Systems
4.1.1 North America
4.1.2 European Union
4.1.3 Asia Pacific
4.1.4 Rest of World
Company Directory
Acronym and Abbreviation List
Table of Contents
Table of Charts and Figures
Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes
LIST OF TABLES
North America
50,000
Europe
Asia Pacific
(MW)
40,000
Rest of World
30,000
20,000
10,000
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
REPORT DETAILS
Price
$3200
Pages
41
28
Release Date
2Q 2013